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So Much For That Santa Claus Rally?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For those who prefer to trade by looking the rear-view mirror, December was looking like a bias-confirming 'Santa-Claus-Rally' month until just a few days ago. For the past 15 years, S&P 500 futures have averaged a rather consistent trend 2% gain in December and in the week leading up to Christmas, the S&P was holding up that plan at +2.6%; but now, sadly, the S&P is down for the month (underperforming the average by around 250bps). Oh, well, we hear there is a January effect to trade soon?

 

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:34 | 3099442 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Don't worry anyone...these markets are so thin and such an epic joke that even a minor league piker propagandist like Weisenthal can move them with a barely decipherable article that's hearsay about, and I quote Joe Weasel-fail, "SCOTT BROWN'S BOTTOM."

We knew Joe Weisenthal was a d-list propagandist. Some may be surprised to learn that he's a twink that's heavily lusting after Scott Brown's "bear" bottom (Weisenthal is day dreaming right now about it being a power bottom*).

Buy MOAR Stocks, says Jeremy Siegel, Abby Joseph Cohen & Dennis Kneale. Some of the "stocks" purchased back in 1999 are still around, even if they're pink sheeted, and there's a lottery ticket stock once in a while so you just have to plow your life savings into that rare breed if you want to make mad money, muppets.

*Bears and Twinks

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:40 | 3099466 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

We're gonna need 535 gimp masks, stat!

 

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:51 | 3099498 knukles
knukles's picture

EVERYBODY LOOK!

Look at Michelle Caruso Cabrerra (or whatever it is) on CNBS right now.  She looks completely fucked up... my son suggested a couple two three Vicodin and a few glasses of wine?  Looks pretty smoothed out, gang.
Rise Abobev er havbuvss                    (smile)

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:59 | 3099513 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

You actually look at her face?

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:02 | 3099524 redpill
redpill's picture

She has a face?

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:10 | 3099544 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

Sadly? SADLY??

A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation that pays returns to its investors from their own money or the money paid by subsequent investors, rather than from profit earned by the individual or organization running the operation. The Ponzi scheme usually entices new investors by offering higher returns than other investments, in the form of short-term returns that are either abnormally high or unusually consistent. Perpetuation of the high returns requires an ever-increasing flow of money from new investors to keep the scheme going.

The system is destined to collapse because the earnings, if any, are less than the payments to investors.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 17:32 | 3099892 saturn
saturn's picture

Santa Claus, really?

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:59 | 3099512 fuu
fuu's picture

And 777 snowballs.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 19:31 | 3100166 ball-and-chain
ball-and-chain's picture

The markets done well since 2008.

But everything seems based on fraud.

What happens when Gentle Ben takes the heroin away?

Or will he?

Perhaps we're the new Japan.

http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2012/12/yesterday-dragon-lady-served-spare-ribs.html

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:32 | 3099443 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Buy the Santa ~ Sell the Kwanzaa

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:09 | 3099539 redpill
redpill's picture

I love that in public schools they teach our children that an enthnocentric circus made up by a racist professor in 1966 is a societal equivalent of the various winter celebrations of the worlds' religions that have been around for thousands of years.  What a fucking joke.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:32 | 3099446 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

On thin volume like this, the market could close up on a few billion...somebody call the Fed

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:34 | 3099449 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

And "They" start buying after the rumor has given a little respite. Time to push back up halting what was looking like a very ugly day.

Sure it's an efficient market.

It's an efficient form of manipulation.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:35 | 3099456 Racer
Racer's picture

Appropriate for a fake market to believe in a fake santa clause! ROFL

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:42 | 3099470 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

There will be a full moon on Friday, and my girlfriend is getting REAL bitchy lately. 

Those are the two key indicators I use to make all my buy & sell decisions.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:11 | 3099531 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

You have to read tea leaves soaked in her menstruation under a full moon and then divine them...or something....I think...in order to accurately and precisely predict the "market action."

That's how all the kewl sell side anal-cysts are doing it these days.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:43 | 3099475 ekm
ekm's picture

It's quite possible that due to shortage of crude oil in the market, Obama has given the order to collapse the market, by using the fiscal cliff as a justification, so he can blame the repubs.

 

This could bring crude oil to $40 which is what the economy needs to get out of depression, same as in 2008.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:49 | 3099495 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

What? There are still stooges that take orders from Obama? I doubt if his kids listen to him  anymore.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:04 | 3099530 ekm
ekm's picture

There still are. There are 47 million americans on food stamps and 47% of americans receiving some kind of gov cheque.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:49 | 3099496 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Is ekm Finnish for "master of the non-sequitur"?

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:02 | 3099521 ekm
ekm's picture

It started with Bush after 9/11. Ruling by executive orders.

Obama has made it an addiction. Even the 2008 so called "crash" was an order. Remember Hank Paulson telling hedge funders in secret before it happened?

You'll see.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:01 | 3099520 walküre
walküre's picture

That was 2008. Fast forward 4 years later and a few geopolitical changes and the US(D) is finished.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:03 | 3099526 ekm
ekm's picture

USD is not finished unless Saudi Arabia stops denominating crude oil in dollars in exchange for protection.

Until that happens, there will be demand of USD to buy crude oil, period.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:10 | 3099543 walküre
walküre's picture

the Euro is still around and the Chinese are buying in Yuan

not sure if this is the end of the USD yet or the beginning of the end but the "cliff" is strike 2 after strike 1 in 2008

USD is out

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:11 | 3099548 ekm
ekm's picture

Who is selling oil for yuan?

Iran is bartering with China, but not using yuan as reserve.

Nobody is selling oil for yuans.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:15 | 3099554 walküre
walküre's picture

Russia and China have made all sorts of deals over the last 4 years. Deals that are NOT settled in USD. China and the BRICS are gearing up for trade in anything BUT USD. Where have you been?

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:19 | 3099567 ekm
ekm's picture

There is a trend for sure. These are all bartering deals.

No yuans, dollars or rubbles change hands or are kept as reserve.

 

Still, Saudi Arabia is the only country with spare capacity and there is no other reserve currency in sight.

Again, you are correct, there is a bartering trend, but not strong enough.........yet.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:32 | 3099601 walküre
walküre's picture

there is no other reserve currency in sight

Oh, it's in sight but when everyone is looking the opposite way it will remain hidden.

There is only one solution to the financial mess. Let inflation go bezerk and allow real price discovery for all commodities especially for gold and silver. Why should the world give a fuck when America can no longer afford to operate their gargantuant and obese lifestyles at $300 / barrel?

Gold should be priced near $50,000 /oz to appropriately reflect the true value. None of this controlled bullshit we are seeing now. The elite decision makers in this country are sitting rich and fat in 100 years of paper dreams. Ironically the Fed was created 100 years ago and the bullshit began.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:35 | 3099607 ekm
ekm's picture

Simple answer.

There is this thing called US Military that everybody in the world is afraid of.

It is this simple.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:16 | 3099556 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

That happened overnight as well.

The Saudi succession is not going how Uncle Sam would want.

Just keep watching the right hand,honest theres nothing up my left  sleeve.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:20 | 3099575 ekm
ekm's picture

That will cause war in a literal way.

When Sadam invaded Kuwait, Sadam was done.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:43 | 3099476 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Blankfeind did it. He's to blame. I can attest to reading countless articles wherein GS was telling all of it clients to load up with stock because the market was going higher. Right after that, wouldn't you know it, the market collapses and no Santa Claus rally. That Grinch Blankfeind made off with everybody's money. And now he's getting ready to finance three card Monti's election campaign with the booty as he continues to use everybody's money to take over the world.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:44 | 3099478 walküre
walküre's picture

That "cliff talk" sure gets alot of coverage. We'll go over and into the abyss and all hell will break loose.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:44 | 3099480 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

And thousands will go on the jobless rolls on January 1! Christmas shopping layoffs and Obamacare layoffs.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/12/27/new-home-sales-rise-t...

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:46 | 3099488 ekm
ekm's picture

Obama strongly believes in his power to blame the others. So far, he's managed pretty well.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:03 | 3099484 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

"they" will use "the market" to twist the arm of d.c. policians. then "the market" will spike for a few days after the deficit spending continues apace then "they" continue the selloff anyway. lmao @ washingtin d.c.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:31 | 3099594 PeeramidIdeologies
PeeramidIdeologies's picture

And the "market" will be praised for saving the day... New highs and fresh money for all.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:46 | 3099487 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

I returned all the stocks I got in my stocking.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:47 | 3099489 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

I'm to the point where if the market is down it's because "they" want it to be. I fully believe that Kevin along with the whoracle and other status quoists and statists are trying to send D.C. a message re the fiascal stiff. Every ZH reader knows that the most responsible thing that washington is capable of these days is to jump off the fucking cliff --which is probably why it won't happen.

Wake me on the days that the indices are down 2.0% plus as that shows a little lack of discipline in the manipulation and the possibility that something REAL might be happening.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:48 | 3099492 mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

what if the dow fell 500 and nobody cared..lol

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:02 | 3099522 HD
HD's picture

But what about the poor algos? Won't somebody please think of the algos!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qh2sWSVRrmo

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:12 | 3099551 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Black Boxes are going to be evicted from District 9 soon.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:22 | 3099581 HD
HD's picture

That I'd like to see...but doubt it. Just like nuclear weapons, the genie is out of the bottle. If someone is using HFT then all the TBTFs will.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:18 | 3099564 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Prolly did,but the BLS managed the PR.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:49 | 3099493 Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

don't even try to understand today's markets miroring history ... Bernanke and Obama are one of a kind !

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:53 | 3099503 larz
larz's picture

Noo Normel

 

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:55 | 3099506 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

When they beat on gold, they fkd up the entire thesis.  Now you can only buy gold again.  It is sickening to see how ignorant the government is about economics.  They should learn that anything they do, ANYTHING, can only have a negative impact on the real economy.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:56 | 3099508 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

TRIN is above 2.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:09 | 3099537 AGoldhamster
AGoldhamster's picture

Hey there are still some trading days left ...  and rumor has it that towards end of the trading session there will be a rumor of a new deal ... so there is still hope for a nice short squeeze.

Never underestimate the banksters.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:13 | 3099550 walküre
walküre's picture

VIX is showing signs of life and some excitement

BDI is going down Hades

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 16:13 | 3099708 AGoldhamster
AGoldhamster's picture

as predicted ...

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:21 | 3099576 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

HLF up 2.7%.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:58 | 3099668 sbenard
sbenard's picture

They didn't tell you? There is NO Santa Claus!

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 16:47 | 3099784 yogibear
yogibear's picture

How many people believe in Santa Claus anyway? If you changed it to a Hanukkah rally most people on Wall Street could go for that. 

 

 

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 19:03 | 3100100 Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

Seems Tyler's end zone dance, dissing Santa and all, was a bit premature.

Of course, my prediction that a deal would be struck before Christmas was worse.

But, since no one is counting, here is my call for the Sunday Night Funnies:  The House uses the special session to pass a kinda sorta deal on taxes, with most of the onery R's abstaining or boycotting, allowing the Dem's and remaining R's to pass some type of Plan B.  This gets passed by the Senate and signed, so that the media can trumpet a deal.  Stocks soar, of course.

It will take a week and a half into January for the crowd to figure out that this little bandaid was only for show, and the real wound will continue to fester for months, probably years.

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