Tyler Durden's picture

Finally, the market realizes that it was the patsy all along. This is what a real cliff looks like:

Of course, none of this news to any of our readers. From November 13:

Once again, it will be up to the market, just like last August, just like October of 2008, to implode and to shock Congress into awakening and coming up with a compromise of sorts.

But please listen to all those "expert" political journalists, reporters and pundits, who said all is well and not to worry about anything. After all they had pretty slideshows and lots of clickbait to make you believe they know stuff

The good news: ES can only drop 5%, or limit down, on Sunday night when the market gets more of the same.

The better news: SPY is open late tonight, long after ES closes.


And it is different this time (from the debt ceiling debate of last year) as investorsd have been herded into risk assets en masse by an over-zealous Fed head...


Where it likely is not at all be different, is how much further the market will have to plunge to "extract" a deal from Congress... roughly another 15-20% lower. Which with a near record margin debt on the NYSE will become quite a sight to see.

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Justlookatit's picture

Grab the parachutes

Rainman's picture

yo...who the ballzy playerz gonna buy up that fukkin dip ?....step right up

Turin Turambar's picture

I bought up some UVXY PoS in the $19s and am just going to ride this charade out and make some money for a change.

A Man without Qualities's picture

Not sure which is more ballsy - buying the dip or staying short over the weekend.  If these guys cobble any sort of deal together this weekend, and chances are they will, it's going to rip your face off on Sunday night..


Then go short....

Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture


It's the second mouse that gets the cheese!

Rainman's picture

My New Year's resolution is to make no more red or black bets in '13 ......still got a few days left though. Even those Mayans went the other way on me, the little bastards.

Mentaliusanything's picture

Even the market wants Goverment Cheese. Tell them to go stand in the line.

falak pema's picture

Roller coaster and deal or real cliff? 

lasvegaspersona's picture

tick tock tick tock tick tock

WTFUD's picture

My 3year old loves that one! tick tock tick tock the clock is always ticking. . . it's time. . . . many a tear has to fall but itza aaalll in da GAME. . . . row row row ya boat gently down the stream; merrillly merrilly . . life is but a dweam.

Goldenballs's picture


Undecided's picture

Nothing a nice bottle of Courvoisier, some puts and precious metals won't fix over the weekend.

GetZeeGold's picture



Just make sure you have a stop loss on your equties over the weekend....just to be safe.

Getting Old Sucks's picture

Do it already!  Perhaps my grandchildren can somehow recover.  Drain me, I don't care but to continue this ponzi dooms the next 4 generations.  Perhaps we'll gain some compassion for our fellow man when we're all in the gutter.  Better yet, perhaps we'll grow balls enough to punish TPTB for their crimes against us.

MsCreant's picture

"perhaps we'll grow balls enough to punish TPTB for their crimes against us"

Either you have an awful fever (get help now), you drank some Koolaide (get help now), or you are showing us that getting old really does suck.

cougar_w's picture

When you rephrase it as "TPTB really need to grow a pair and punish TPTB" you start to see how silly the idea is.

Getting Old Sucks's picture

I think I get that but we all know that's not going to happen.  It''l be up to the 99.9%.

Getting Old Sucks's picture

Well friend, I owe no one a penny, beholding to no PTB.  Slave to no man and never will be.  Free as at no other time in my life.  Are you one of TPTB?  And actually fear me for my speaking out?  I honestly laugh at you.  You can't do anything to me.  My freedom is my hope for all men.  That is except for people like you.  Flame away, I revel in it.  To my common man, free yourselves!

MsCreant's picture

No harm intended, we play hard here. A friendly bitch slapping is par for the course at fight club. 

I have no debt. I am not one of TPTB.

The further into the rabbit hole you look, the more screwed you realize we are. Nothing short of violence is going to set this straight. I don't want it, but it is as clear as the nose on my face. Everything has been bought, from the bottom up. It is not ours. No one is enforcing the law at the top AT ALL.

So yeah, I poke fun at you. But I do so lovingly. 

The day I learned that the Fed was buying our treasuries I developed a deep and profound knowing about just how bad it is that will never be taken from me. They will punish no one because we are not living in a democracy or a republic. It is possible we never have, yet.

Peace. Or not. Your call.

Getting Old Sucks's picture

I don't play hard here.  Everything I post is from the heart whether nice or not.  I agree with a lot of what you say above.  One problem is that TPTB has made most of our society impotent to carry out warfare with their limited all volenteer armed services.  In my day, on any given day, there was half a million men in Viet Nam, rotated annually by another half million.  Of course most of them were drafted (not I).  Many experienced things I won't talk about but I believe that most of our population will not easily, without gross horrific experience, will be able to carry out. It's no video game.  I'm sure you and many wonder how men in Lybia fight against their government.  Perhaps it would take watch your child killed to get you angry enough to kill.  Ever wonder why the 70's and even the 80's were about peace and love?  Cause we were there and killing haunts the soul.  Hopefully, you will never be there as I hope for my son.  Peace to you.  No fight club for me friend.  

rambo1028's picture

I can see the truths in both getting old and MS posts. It is so difficult to want desperately for my children to grow up in peace and at the same time wish we could just finish the falling down so they can have a chance at actually living in peace. Somedays I feel like we are perilously close to something much much greater than a fabricated fiscal cliff and other days...I seems 50 or 100 years away. I cannot tell you how many times over the last year I have wished that I could just be one of the sheeple. Perfectly happy to work my slave job so long as I can watch my shows on the teevee and eat at TGIFridays a few times a month. I have wanted desperately to go back to "sleep" instead of think, read, plot, and worry. But we cannot unknow all that we know. I too believe we will be slow to action but hold out hope that the best of us won't wait until they are murdering our neighbors. I have a feeling that passing any gun laws and def any confiscation may be a tipping point....or it could be just a huge divide and conquer op....what the hell do I know....

fiatmasochist's picture

   The tipping point will be when a slightly larger proportion than 49.5 percent of the populace is dependent on a govt. check.


Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

Hey, "Getting Old Sucks":

It may appear true at first, but it's much better than the alternative!

Getting Old Sucks's picture

What is the alternative?  Death?  We all die.  Problem is that we all want (and some think) they will live forever.  We are so spoiled here.  I've been to war and seen where life is "cheap"  Kill a gook accidently and pay the family $80.  We all want to believe that we are all so significant when we are no more important to nature than a cockroach.  Life is short and when you get older you'll understand.  Best of luck to you friend as I know you are a nice person by reading your post. 

Jalibb's picture

Wonderful comment GOS. You have evolved while here grasshopper, and that my friend is rare.

ekm's picture

It's quite possible that Obama is writing the executive order right now about the market collapse, same as in 2008/2009.


The collapse will be by presidential executive order in my opinion as soon as the lack of crude oil in the real economy becomes acute.

Until I see 1000 dow pts/day for 3 days in a row, I would not consider it a "drop".


Same as in 2008 when it was decided that Lehman will go shit, as soon as they make the decision which primary dealers will be pulverized this time, the order will be released.

 That's what I think is going to happen. Exactly the same as in 2008.

SheepDog-One's picture

I think its highly probable.

Payoffs are done, QE's safely in the FED's bag, ObaMao secured in his spot..its all done nothing left to do...this was all 'for something' not just for 'let's see how long we can fuck around' nah I think they've got big plans and we're about to see it soon.

ekm's picture

My point of reference is crude oil price.

When I'm home I check it every 5 minutes.

It's been stuck between 85-90 for too long.

Waterfallsparkles's picture

You sound like me, checking the price of Heating Oil every five minutes.  Or every time the furnace comes on.

forwardho's picture

87 out of 100 senators approved the NDAA bill.

The future has been seen.

They were terrified by that vision.

The last four years of life support bought the time to implement the controls needed to subdue a frantic populace.

One can infer by their draconian actions the level of destruction they forsee.

Yeah, they've got big plans allright.

fonzannoon's picture

EKM just for fun I will take the complete opposite side of that deal. We get some minor agreement along with a punt and one more rip your face off rally. First we may go a bit lower. Nothing too bad.

Let's see what happens.

ekm's picture

Please, do not risk too much money into the bet.


I'd love you critique my posts. I'm here to learn.

fonzannoon's picture

My bet is the michael corleone bet. Nothing. I am just passing the time. I am not critiquing your posts. I look forward to them. The only place I disagree is with it being a PD that dumps. I think it is going to be several insurance companies. But that point it's just semantics.

ekm's picture

Actually I've thought about your insurance tip, similar to pension funds for unions. Quite probable.


My boss has other business. Our factory is non union but the other businesses are unionized into a big union in Ontario.

He said that the big guys came to him a long time ago and asked him to setup some kind of pensions funds for the workers. They'd do the connection with Bay Street here. (wall street of canada).


Your point is quite strong, and it is quite similar to mine.

fonzannoon's picture

Federal pensions will be saved by taxes and the fed for a while. Private pensions and annuities etc. will get swallowed up by ZIRP. It's coming.

ekm's picture

Thx a lot. New think to start researching on.

Do you recommend anything to start with?

fonzannoon's picture

Learn about annuities. Variable annuities. Learn about their income benefits. Especially the ones sold during 2000-2010. Promises promises.....

Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

"Private pensions and annuties etc will get swallowed up by ZIRP. It's coming".


What's also coming is NIRP.

CompassionateFascist's picture

" companies". Interesting point. I get a little check each month from Genworth; turn it into Silver Eagles. Usually comes around mid-month, but recently with a later and later clearance date. This check at all. I suppose I could go look at their site. Nahhh...who cares.  

Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

"...and one more rip your face off rally."

Yep, possible rally to S&P 1450-1500 (will probably truncate) then,

Fee, Fi, Fo, Fum

6500 here we come!

Element's picture

Thing is it won't work, law only works when everyone is accountable, and now too many know that the people at the top and their helpers do not do prison time. So the scum can pass any law they want to cover their nakedness, it just isn't going to work when the shit hits the fan, because civil disobedience is not going to be just some dude protesting in the street, it's going to explode in ways no govt can hope to stop. They are deluding themselves if they think feeble new laws mean shit when the axes come out.

The Heart's picture

Brilliance is always going to shine in every universe.

Appreciation is the food of good life.

Purity is at dawn.

You know what time it is.


cougar_w's picture

It will be "everyone gets a pony"

I'm only half joking. It will be some kind of eye-candy, meaningless but exciting. Maybe Obama will kiss Boehner on the lips. With tongue.

And no, I don't think any TBTF are allowed to fail. Nobody fails now. They have this thing sewn up nice and tight. It gets dicey and Bernanke waves his hand at the wrist, any TBTF that needs $100B in cash gets cash -- by PayPal if that's the fastest route.

It will break one of these days. But not today, and not soon.

And I don't see anyone in the CONgress cutting any support programs either. The only thing holding back 40 million desperate unemployed is the promise of weekly support payments. Any cut to social welfare will be co-announced with Bernanke promising to drop real money from actual helicopters.

There are only so many was they can play this game. And everyone in a position of power knows it.

ekm's picture

People thought no primary dealers would be allowed to fail after Lehman.

But............MFG failed.