Tyler Durden's picture

Finally, the market realizes that it was the patsy all along. This is what a real cliff looks like:

Of course, none of this news to any of our readers. From November 13:

Once again, it will be up to the market, just like last August, just like October of 2008, to implode and to shock Congress into awakening and coming up with a compromise of sorts.

But please listen to all those "expert" political journalists, reporters and pundits, who said all is well and not to worry about anything. After all they had pretty slideshows and lots of clickbait to make you believe they know stuff

The good news: ES can only drop 5%, or limit down, on Sunday night when the market gets more of the same.

The better news: SPY is open late tonight, long after ES closes.


And it is different this time (from the debt ceiling debate of last year) as investorsd have been herded into risk assets en masse by an over-zealous Fed head...


Where it likely is not at all be different, is how much further the market will have to plunge to "extract" a deal from Congress... roughly another 15-20% lower. Which with a near record margin debt on the NYSE will become quite a sight to see.

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cougar_w's picture

The jury is still out on that one. So far it's been looking less like a fail and more like a tactical first-move advantage.

ekm's picture


That's what I mean by failure though. Something planned.

cougar_w's picture

Ah well then you can put it as "failure" in quotes so we get the idea that it's one of those "fail-(haha I made so fucking much money today)-ure" failures and not anything where -- you know -- someone at the top loses money on a bad bet or anything like that kind of actual olde skool failure.

Cuz failure is like totally not going to happen ever again in the history of the solar system. And they might even make it retroactive and just give a bunch of random money to anyone associated with Lehman, too.

rambo1028's picture

You forgot to add in all the rest of us....former middle class turned working poor who are living hand to mouth....with no safety net. Did I mention that I noticed a huge spike in my grocery bill a few days ago? The cashier said to expect another by the end of January. 40 million maybe the number of people who are counting on the safety net. The much greater number and the more unpredictable crowd are those of us with no room to fall. We are here, our numbers are growing, and we are getting restless.

Everybodys All American's picture

I think we are closer to a systemic failure than you think. A lot closer.

Goldenballs's picture

Run your credit cards up on physical,make the banks pay for your free lunch,just like the free lunches you have been paying for in the Cayman Islands,Channel Islands,Belize,Switzerland,Wall St and the Square Mile.

XenoFrog's picture

The little guy never gets his debt forgiven. Don't risk it.

cougar_w's picture


You'd think more people here would get that part.

Spastica Rex's picture

The frogs don't know that they're frogs, or that they're almost fully cooked.

stant's picture

no tax refund for the easter bunny

tlnzz's picture

Put on your rose colored glasses. "Green shoots" coming Monday.

kaiserhoff's picture

Nice avatar.  Should be on every bumper in America.

Conman's picture

In the words of the wise Japanese, Please Don't Worry.

SheepDog-One's picture

Or the Chinese curse 'May you live in interesting times' have we been Chinese cursed!

fonzannoon's picture

All everyone on here wants is the truth exposed and for reality to reassert itself. It's why we sit here on a 150pt drop and contemplate the end of the market and huge institutions going bankrupt. People want it so bad it hurts. Not going to happen people. You keep missing the 85 billion/mo lifeline. That is just what they tell you about. God only knows what is going on behind the scenes. At some point it will collapse but there is a chance most of us went broke in the meantime.

SheepDog-One's picture

Oh it will definitely happen, we just dont know when. Passing out clownbux and being excited about it is long gone...time to shake up the snow globe again.

fonzannoon's picture

I just want it to happen when that dipshit Sullivan guy is on CNBC tapdancing around the studio with his american flag and telling us stories of greatness followed by "I noticed there seems to be a problem with the monitor it is showing the dow down 3000 points. Let's go out to Bob Pisani.....Bob? That is weird the trading floor is empty? Bob? Bob!.......BOB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

john39's picture

truth exposure is not enough.  the world is in the grip of a small group of very evil people.  nothing will change for long unless they are removed from the equation.

The Limerick King's picture



We're living in interesting times

A system contructed on crimes

With evil Elites 

Where everyone cheats

And truth comes in pictures and rhymes 

john39's picture

so true...  if you want to learn what is really happening in the world, you must learn to read the symbols...  our ancestors left us many clues, and the controlers use their own symbols...  if you can't read them, you are in the dark.

forwardho's picture

"You keep missing the 85 billion/mo lifeline."

At some point the collective fantasy of  that free unlimited lifeline will be tied into the very noose which will hang us all.

Deficit spending = pretend, unbacked, make believe, collective fantasy.

When fantasy becomes reality... then me bucko's you have a cliff that drops into, well, pick your level from Dante's little black book.


Jethro's picture

I am past the point of actively wanting it to crash.  I'm certainly in the apathetic/mild curiosity phase now.  Beyond indignation, beyond stress.  The situation is completely out of my control, and I continue to prepare as best as I'm able.  I'll focus on what I can control and not sweat anything else. 

However, when the spinning plates begin to fall, I'll be thoroughly amused.  Hopefully the entire CNBC cast will commit seppuku on live TV, but that would require dignity and a sense of shame.  I am afraid these were sold to the government / media conglomorate for pennies on the dollar during the 2008 election.

Overflow-admin's picture


"Government bonds will be redeemed because the government is responsible for, please do not worry."

Cursive's picture

One step closer to the Great Reset.

fonzannoon's picture

Cursive I cropdusted a conference room today. It was tremendous.

Cursive's picture


I literally lol'd.  What's next, you gonna buying a Goatse T-shirt and wear it around the office?


ETA:  We need some details on this like how many execs were there or what C-suite wannabe you bombed?

muppet_master's picture


a -1.5% in spx futures after hours = a real cliff !!! ??? please !!!! gimme -20% drop...THAT'S A CLIFF !!

El Tuco's picture

Don't know if it will ever happen but never say never.....

DJIA @ 7 - 8k

S&P @ 500 - 700

NASDAQ @ 800 - 1200

That's what I call a correction....maybe I'm old fashion....

knicks3005's picture

No need to worry.about any market losses, reason why is that lets say the markets drop 1.7% today, well once they approve the fix which will happen in the next week the markets will erase all of today's losses and gain an additional 1-2%. This is just something to sir.back and.laugh at, there is a 99.9% chance a deal is made before the 31st of December 2012.

Buy the dip and wait for the quick fiscal cliff fix next week. Its need to lose any sleep.

SheepDog-One's picture

well, you can knock yourself out gambling in the lunatic den all you like.

knicks3005's picture

i'll bet my life savings that a deal will be reached in the last minute. Always does.

Nobody For President's picture

 All 23 cents?

The 'last minute' is pretty flexible here - any time from Monday to maybe April 15 or so.

But if your bet is by January 1, 2013, you must be a Cubs fan. (No offense to Cub fans everywhere.)

eclectic syncretist's picture

Whatever they come up with it won't be good enough this time. 

Venerability's picture

One does realize the commodity contract turnovers have begun?

I thought all the important sectors behaved in a very orderly fashion today. Possibly 100 percent major Market Makers, with virtually no one else participating.


MRSAP's picture

What a spasten theater

CharliePrince's picture

when the hell do the futures close      its friday...thought  they  shut down  at 4:15  est ?

SheepDog-One's picture

Near record high margin holders watching Friday selloff....well happy weekend to all degenerate gamblers and good luck you'll need it.

*ring, ring*....uh...Dave's not here man, call back later.

Bastiat009's picture

-1% = bloodbath????

Get real ... get honest too.

Papasmurf's picture

Watch the HFT machines drop the SPY through zero to minus infinity over the weekend when the divide by zero issue from Y2K crops up.  There's a little bit of DOS left in everything.

cavsgt's picture

Stocks tanked today, tumbling into the 4:00 PM ET close.

The S&P 500 fell 1.1 percent, or 15 points to 1,402.

However, the futures market is open and stock futures are tanking. Here's a look at S&P futures, which are down another 26 points minutes after the close.

Dow futures are down 226 and Nasdaq futures are down 36.

Read more:

SheepDog-One's picture

And with everything riding with record margin, it could get real bad quick. That is, if it was still the olden days but now everything is owned by the FED PD's anyway so who knows?

All I know for certain is I wouldn't touch this contraption with .10 cents myself. 

PTDBDucks's picture


That nobody finds it strange that this "news" was released before market close. Those with inside knowledge have a chance to collect big on their positions and then reverse.

This is how the 1% of the 1% is made.

We, otoh, just make comments. Who are the dumb ones?

HD's picture

BIG FUCKING DEAL.  S&P is still magically at 1400 and whatever sell off we do manage to get will be a manipulated coiled spring like every financial market now. Nothing goes down except reality.

When we hit S&P 850 I'll believe in efficient, honest markets...I'm not holding my breath.

Miramanee's picture

I am all in. This is the time to bet it all on GREEN. There IS NO CLIFF!!!! A pothole at most. Bank of america will close @ $14.00 on February 1st.

eclectic syncretist's picture

I'm taking the other side of that bet!

tawse57's picture

You Americans like the calvary riding to the rescue at the last minute don't you. It will all be bugles and the US being saved on Monday. Suckers.



Getting Old Sucks's picture

Wash, rince and repeat?  Till when?

Darth Mul's picture

Dear Tyler:


Who gives a flying fuck if the market is down after the wholly predictable fuckery which transpired today.  The 'market' is about as reflective of the real economy as Spiderman is reflective of what happens when you're bitten by a spider.


We should be working hard to buy Mexican and Venezuelan and Iranian oil, and investing in Africa.   Instead, we're basing our strategies on the notion that the best thing to do is keep playing musical dictators in the Middle East, which in 30 years is going to be little more than a bunch of religious fanatics going around chopping each others heads off.


Fuck the market.


Much more worrisome is the extent to which the war profiteers and big oil and the various other usual suspects are keeping us from doing what makes geostrategic sense - disengaging from that clusterfuck, and preventing speculators from driving the price of oil and gas up and down on a whim.


As far as I'm concerned, anyone buying stock instead of canned food, guns, ammo, non-gmo seeds, water filters, antibiotics and maybe some metals isn't really thinking medium-term.


The fiscal cliff is a side show, and so is the reaction to it of the fuckwads investing in dollar-denominated paper.



Getting Old Sucks's picture

Well said.  But nobody (out there) wants to hear it.