Bob Shiller On The 'Housing Recovery': "Highly Uncertain, It's Risky"
Sometimes, taking a break from the mainstream view of the world is healthy for our sheep-like tendencies to follow the herd. To wit, Robert Shiller can't understand the enthusiasm for the long-term recovery outlook of the housing market. With rentals rising and home-ownership dwindling, Shiller, in this Bloomberg TV clip, questions the positivity noting that the outlook is 'fuzzy' at best; and in fact in the short-term is negative as MoM things have deteriorated modestly (though seasonally). He note that the focus has been on multi-family residences and "if you are sitting in a suburban single-family house - what is your outlook? Highly uncertain - It's Risky!" And in one of the most prescient comments of recent weeks, Shiller admits something that many others should try: "[the outlook] could be up; but I don't see how anyone knows?" adding that another plausible outlook for the next five years is that "housing stays right where it is now," adding that Zillow's 1.3% annual real growth expectation could be too optimistic.