China PMI Surges To 19-Month High - US (And Chinese) Equities Sigh

Tyler Durden's picture


There was a time when the US was the cleanest dirty shirt; it seems now, given the US equity futures' (total lack of) reaction to tonight's 19-month-high surge in the ever-trustworthy over-invested mal-allocated Chinese PMI that for once, all that matters is domestic issues. HSBC's China PMI surged to 51.5, its highest since May 2011 and the Shanghai Composite is even shrugging it off as new export orders fell slightly (but of course all that matters is the top-line); and not wanting to burst anyone's bubble but - a majority of survey respondents (nearly 85%) reported no change in the level of outstanding business, employment levels also remained broadly similar in December, with nearly 92% of panelists noting no change to workforce numbers. But apart from that, the drop in inventories (and jump in input prices) apparently was enough to jerk this idiotic barometer of whatever it is to something that purports to show the best manufacturing growth in 19 months. It seems clear that our Chinese 'friends' at the PBoC are telegraphing that we are on our own - there will be no easing from them in this environment - Trade accordingly...



and US equity futures reaction...


Shanghai Comp...

Your rating: None

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:44 | 3108029 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Bob pisani needed a talking point.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:16 | 3108098 ball-and-chain
ball-and-chain's picture

Do you think Bob Pisani will read me a sexy bedtime story?


Well, that's just wonderful.

He can describe Bernanke's man-tits and all that glorious QE milk.


Mon, 12/31/2012 - 00:17 | 3108193 HD
HD's picture

"Bernanke's man-tits and all that glorious QE milk."

I will NEVER forgive you for putting that image in my head.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 00:42 | 3108230 markmotive
markmotive's picture

We're *this* close to war with China over some stupid island dispute with Japan...and, yes, China can nuke mainland US.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 00:50 | 3108234 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

I've been 'sorta' planning to bury a truck camper next to my house in case of fallout.  I REALLY gotta get that project started!


REALLY!  (Vietnamese guy in country 20 years has opinion on 'TAKERS':


these sluts make this country going down. instead paying tax, supporting the country, they digging money from the country, from people work hard like us. these sluts and lazy ass hole man walking down on the street? selling illegal drugs, and eligible for insurance, food stamp and all benefits while we work crazy but we have to pay out of our pocket for food, house, insurance , medical bills and shame at all for this woman and people like her..


That's pretty much it, in a nutshell.  Fuck the fiscal cliff.  Fuck Bernanke. Fuck Zerobama.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:46 | 3108033 max2205
max2205's picture


Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:19 | 3108103 Karlus
Karlus's picture

Last time I checked China was trying to dump USD on the market to short Gold and buy the phyzz....good luck to them. Sounds like a day late and a dollar (or trillion) short.

Not worried about China and their paper dreams

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:48 | 3108038 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Atlason Shrugged! - Coming to a Chinese bookstore near you.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:50 | 3108044 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

If Americans keep buying stuff they don't need with money they don't have,

the PMI may hold for a while longer. But the collapse is in the rear-view mirror

and it's gaining fast. What can't go on forever, doesn't go on. China depends on the West and

the West is fading fast. 

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 01:34 | 3108276 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

I think you expressed it perfectly.

And(/or?), I worry FOR the Chinese far more than I worry ABOUT them.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 18:53 | 3110839 smiler03
smiler03's picture

I trust the Chinese far more than I trust the Americons, which isn't saying much.


Mulder was right, "trust no one", ZH included.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 18:58 | 3110854 akak
akak's picture

I trust British cooking and British dentistry more than I trust the ubiquitous British surveillance camera network, which isn't saying much.


PS: Orwell wrote the book 1984 as a warning, NOT as a blueprint.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:55 | 3108056 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Dockworkers strike averted for now at U.S. ports |Posted: December 30, 2012 - 12:29am


Latvia Says Under Fire Russian Ex-Minister Not Seeking Residency 


Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:20 | 3108106 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

i know our residence generates half now......i just commented on this to my wife....

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:25 | 3108114 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Your job to take out the trash?



Tue, 01/01/2013 - 13:33 | 3112289 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

yes among many other chores....

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 00:56 | 3108243 qqqqtrader
qqqqtrader's picture

I followed it to ---> Canada... "Waste & nonferrous scrap" is up 50.3% from 2010 to now... and the US is down 9.6% from 2010.


Mon, 12/31/2012 - 03:47 | 3108346 Rantabulous
Rantabulous's picture

If you don't mind an anecdotal contribution, I have been doing this for the last few years. (albeit in Victoria, Australia).

I have a friend who runs a small skip-bin hire business and I have been making a point of keeping an eye on his work and relevant news in his area.

Smaller players than him are folding up. He is picking up cheap skips from competitors as they fold and has been offered a few cheap trucks (but has not purchased). A few years ago they were flat out and the phone just rang without any real efforts to advertise - now his volume has dropped sharply - but he is still profitable because he owns everything outright.

Also - another thing I find interesting is the content of the skips. I have watched as skips bins that were once often full of stuff that was still in relatively good condition - furniture - appliances - bicycles etc have given way to absolute junk. People appear to no longer be just 'upgrading' their homes and simply dumping perfectly good stuff.

Another thing I have been watching is opportunity shops. A few years ago I theorised that 'opp shops' would go from bulging shelves of good quality clothing to the more historically typical state of poorer quality second hand clothing.

Once you could regularly get designer clothes with the shop labels still on them in your size. Today you generally cannot. The shelves still look full, but if you look closely there is now a disportionate number of XL, XXL, etc.

I believe we have seen 'peak opp shop' and quite possibly 'peak rubbish' - at least for the rest of my life.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 08:43 | 3108466 lewy14
lewy14's picture

Reversion to the historical mean.

Perhaps to be followed by the reversion to the historical nasty, brutish and short.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:10 | 3108088 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

What happens tomorrow? We see it in the futures tonight. No deal as of this moment and futures are at (dow) +35 and climbing. Just as Tyler posted on Friday, there is NO room for a downward swoon. Futes will freeze at around +95 points to the upside by the open (Since fair value is at -65)...It will be another one of those headfakes where equities do nothing but a slow bleed straight up thanks to Ben, Timmy and their Norad boys.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:26 | 3108117 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

sounds about right. futures climbing now. total retrace of post market drop by the time we wake up. same as it ever was.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:37 | 3108138 Salon
Salon's picture

Fuck it. I should have known i couldnt win.

All i wanted was a lousy 5 % on my SDS

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:16 | 3108100 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

With reportedly at least half of all new apartments sitting empty, Ghost cities and vacant malls....what does this PMI mean?

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:23 | 3108108 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

Same as USD... total Bullsh**t.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:28 | 3108119 ZFiNX
ZFiNX's picture

Exports falling, production rising, yes, the Chinese consumer is here to rescue us all. Factual or not, all that matters is the market's opinion.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:35 | 3108135 Salon
Salon's picture

They could, temporarily.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:32 | 3108126 jim249
jim249's picture

And over in the EU ,Merkel is saying not so fast. 2013 might be a tougher year than 2012.



Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:33 | 3108130 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

the chinese is great at conterfiting US goods and conterfiting data as well, global bullshit at its best!

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:43 | 3108151 Salon
Salon's picture

Chinese citizenism at work.

Counterfeitational accusations is american citizenism word for others wishful to defend themselves from exploitationalism.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 00:18 | 3108191 Element
Element's picture

Beijing jizzed the economy with $160 billion USD of new public debt to try not to go into recession, before the US does.

So we're in the print-off of the zombies at the O.K. Corral, to see who can remain standing the longest.

Step aside US debt zombie, Benocide the magnifique is here to save you from the yellow peril.


Mon, 12/31/2012 - 00:24 | 3108203 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

Proof that the Asian Tiger is, as always, truly a Paper Tiger.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 00:55 | 3108242 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Zerobama:  'FOWARNED'

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 00:55 | 3108244 ekm
ekm's picture

 By the way, it's the HSBC China PMI


As a reminder, HSBC is the bank particularly specialized on money laundering of cocaine, heroine, illegal weapons of every single corner of the world.

Covering up cocaine operations is way, way, way more difficult than coming up with any data chinese gov wants them to publish.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 01:27 | 3108270 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture


"...,HSBC is the bank particularly specialized on money laundering of cocaine, heroine, illegal weapons of every single corner of the world.".

And, if I'm not mistaken, that's been a fairly commonly recognized point for quite some time now(among some circles) so the obvious follow-on conclusion is(IMO) that - "laundering of cocaine, heroine, illegal weapons of every single corner of the world." serves a purpose in its 'ecosphere'.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 01:18 | 3108265 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

WEEEEEeeee!!!!!!!!! CHINA!!!!!

Thailand's way better, they got 30r 5 more New Years they celibate.


Mon, 12/31/2012 - 01:42 | 3108279 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

So...China sells UST's and buys gold /silver. Yeh, that would make sense.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 01:58 | 3108291 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Barron's this weekend has a distressingly high number of bulls on China...  The Cover Story ("The End of Cash?") was sufficiently alarming (to me anyway who wants to keep SOME of my purchases quiet...).

Review of Barron's -- Dated 31 December 2012:

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 03:30 | 3108339 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture
Merkel Calls for German Patience as Euro Crisis ‘Far From Over’

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the economic environment will be more difficult in 2013 than this year, and that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis is “far from over,” though progress has been made."

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 04:50 | 3108361 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

we'll hear more of this now that the German general election in September 2013 is getting closer - expect a few financial raids to try to exploit the situation

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 04:19 | 3108352 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture




Was this story covered here while I was 'away'? Didn't see any headlines on it in the first two pages...




link to NYT article embedded in the story(log in required)

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 05:41 | 3108378 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

the chinese communists are here to save the capitalist markets.


chinese pmi soars??  good day with the dartboard at HSBC.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 06:59 | 3108396 news printer
news printer's picture
Syrian troops arrest 4 Turkish fighter pilots in Aleppo

"The guarding troops of the Koerc military airport arrested four Turkish officers who were trying to sneak into the airport..."

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 07:38 | 3108407 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

I think it's time to explain again how the futures are showing "bloodbath" because nobody is prepared for the market crash coming before the end of the year. Are MW interns now working for ZH???

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 10:17 | 3108692 AlphaHunter001
AlphaHunter001's picture


"there will be no easing from them in this environment"


if the PMI is moving up, why would anyone want more stimulus? that makes no sense, a stimulus is for a declining economy during a crisis only

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 19:40 | 3110987 smiler03
smiler03's picture

Those who are predicting the demise of the dollar usually list the Yaun as one of the most likely currencies to usurp it, but at the same time, in articles like this, everybody "trashes" the Chinese economy. Can you make your minds up, please?


Mon, 12/31/2012 - 19:46 | 3110999 akak
akak's picture

You implicitly assume (as you usually do) a continuation of the status-quo paradigm in your "analysis".

In fact, what is likely to die is both the US dollar AND the "one fiat currency to bind them all" reserve system itself.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!