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Guest Post: Fiscal Cliff Contingencies

Tyler Durden's picture


Via Nic Bucheleres of NJBDeflator blog,

While debate over the Fiscal Cliff mostly centers around its latent whiplash effects on the United States economy, its inception is wholly a product of poor deal-making by politicians in Washington D.C. The series of agreements that led to what we know as the Fiscal Cliff began in 2010 in a divided "Lame Duck" session, where Congress passed the "Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010," thereby extending the Bush Era tax-cuts for an extra two years. Affected by these tax-cuts were individual, corporate, estate, and trust taxes, as well as Social Security employee payroll taxes.

The divergence between consumers and producers within the real economy that has stumped economists for the better part of 2012 can, at least in part, be attributed to the Fiscal Cliff; but the anticipatory effects of the Fiscal Cliff on the United States of America evidently began with American politicians, and probably for the worse, that is where it will end. The division that has plagued Washington has grown starker in recent years, and the divergence between consumers and producers as a result of divided leadership stands as a testament to the irresponsibility of those sent to Washington D.C. to serve their country. These divergences cannot last forever, and depending on the events of the next couple weeks, the United States is due for a reversion to the mean. The direction of that reversion—either production up to meet consumption or consumption down to meet production and confirm a recession within the United States—is wholly on the shoulders of the politicians in Washington D.C.

Starting April 2011, ratings agencies began issuing official statements warning of a possible US credit downgrade if Congress failed to reach a deal over the federal debt. Of course, Congress did in fact fail to reach an agreement on a bi¬partisan debt reduction pact, which prompted the debt ceiling to be raised. Days after Congress passed the "Budget Control Act" raising the debt ceiling for the 47t1 time since 1917, Standard & Poor's downgraded the US federal government credit rating from AAA to AA+, marking the first time in history that US debt was rated below AAA.

The impact of the one-time downgrade in the creditworthiness of US debt was minor, but it stands as an omen for what will befall the US in the event that the Fiscal Cliff is not resolved smoothly. Recent history with the federal debt/deficit underlines why the current Fiscal Cliff debate is so contentious, and the implications of a failure to responsibly address the issues of the Fiscal Cliff—both in the short- run and in the long-run—are the motivation for our exploration into the drag that such a political failure would have (and is currently having) on the US economy as analyzed through our model of Fiscal Cliff contingencies for various agents.


117723977 Fiscal Cliff Contingencies


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Sun, 12/30/2012 - 20:33 | 3107738 tooriskytoinvest
tooriskytoinvest's picture

Senator offers Cliff Alleviation at the Last Minute (CALM) Act… “This is not a great plan, merely a better plan than going over the cliff, “It should never have come to this.”

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 20:53 | 3107795 ball-and-chain
ball-and-chain's picture

We aren't going over the cliff.

The masters of the universe--Wall Street and London--want a deal.

So they'll get a deal.

They are in control.

The status quo will win out.

This is a lot of smoke without a fire.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:44 | 3107908 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

"They stayed six years and only paid rent for one year," said Haji Najibullah Khan, who grew up in the Pashengar house that became a US base. He said the departing US commander warned him off pushing for rent money when they met a few weeks before the soldiers drove away in the night."

Left holding the bag. 




Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:56 | 3107924 davidsmith
davidsmith's picture

The masters of the universe didn't want Hitler either--but that's who they got.  You overestimate the power of the oligarchs during a crisis.  And plenty of oligarchs want an authoritarian solution for the U.S.--because the economy is in a terminal decline and it's easier to loot if cartels are state-sanctioned.


McConnell is doing exactly what coup leaders always do--he's upping the ante, changing the goalposts, anything to avoid a compromise.  It won't be long before he stops making pretty to please suburbanites.  Once the political system is paralyzed, the leadership will abandon the middle class and do what it takes to bring in an authoritarian regime.

If you think the fiscal cliff will paralyze the political system, wait til you see the debt ceiling.  And it will be done by arguing that the debt ceiling cannot be raised unless the tax and spend issues are resolved.


I haven't read many commentators stating the main effect of going over the cliff: it will be an AMAZING victory for the Tea Party.  Right after they got trashed after the polls.  But it is very often the case that the authoritarian minority loses support, forms a hedgehog defense, and then scores a major political victory.


NOTHING will move politically after we go over the cliff.  The political crisis will break wide open.  That will have the most disastrous effect on the economy.  Exactly what the Tea Party wants in order to argue for the authoritarian alternative.


Get ready!  Brown shirts on the streets, so to speak!

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:08 | 3107945 JungleJim
JungleJim's picture


I would like to know where you got that opinion of the Tea Party, I've found all the ones I've talked to to be strongly Liberterain


Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:16 | 3107959 davidsmith
davidsmith's picture
  1. The libertarian position is a losing position. 
  2. As extremist parties turn into proto-authoritarian regimes (and you now have to look at the Tea Party as a government in waiting, whether it gets through the door or not), the decisions are increasingly made by the leadership, not by the base.  This is a backroom coup, just like Hitler's elevation to power.  Only in this case, there is no central leader; instead, a leadership group will emerge, and that's not necessarily anti-authoritarian--an authoritarian regime does not require an autocrat.  Franco wasn't one, and neither was Mussolini (for that matter, neither was Augustus).
Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:31 | 3107994 Muppet Pimp
Muppet Pimp's picture

Looks like Hillary's may end up too 'sick' to testify about benghazi.  What a travesty of justice this will be.  And empty suit Holder still running the show at the department of 'injustice'.

WAKE UP SHEEPLE!  Perhaps we need to take a page from the Latin American playbook and have activists put loudspeakers on the top of their cars so they can drive around spreading the news.  Bullhorning may be our last best chance to connect with the sheeple before they get sheared.



Mon, 12/31/2012 - 01:58 | 3108289 Lore
Lore's picture

We've been yammering over this for DECADES. The time for pre-empting is past. The only viable systemic mandate going forward is can-kicking. Tyler already knows, but the mainstream parrots still delude themselves into thinking the daily theatrics on TV matter in some real way. We'll have another 22 chapters just like Euroland and their goddamn Grexit.  When it finally collapses, the sheep will say "What happened?!  Why didn't somebody DO something?!  And politicians and banksters will disappear into the hills in their mansion bunkers...

If shearing is necessary to restore natural balance, then for Heaven's sake, let's get it over with ASAP, BUT LET THE BIG BANKS FAIL, AND LOCK UP A FEW HUNDRED OF THOSE RESPONSIBLE. As Robert Peel and so many other really GOOD men have stated for so long, "JUSTICE MUST NOT ONLY BE DONE; IT MUST BE SEEN TO BE DONE."

But you can see that it isn't happening that way. Sensible decisions aren't even discussed. Protection of cronies and socialization of misery is the name of the game.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 10:53 | 3108828 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

davidsmith is a leftist troll trying to obscure the real picture.  Ignore him.  How can McConnell act in any capacity of power? McConnell is as impotent as davidsmith's god Obama.  The only answer is for the people to turn off the TV and either demand change until it happens or effect change themselves.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 09:39 | 3108571 Convervative Co...
Convervative Connection's picture

How is wanting a Federal govenment limited in scope and size to what is enumerated in the Constitution an "extremist" position?

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 10:20 | 3108699 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

In the same way being sober is extreme to a severe alcoholic. Grand mal seizures, anyone?

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 09:53 | 3108611 cosmyccowboy
cosmyccowboy's picture

he is just adding his hopes and dreams to the blank canvas of the tea party,,, that's what happens when your party is leaderless! as one who participated in both marches on DC and was there the day pelosi claimed to have gotten spit on i personally am very libertarian! i cannot speak for the rest of the 'tea party'... from what i saw during the march the vast majority are either already on are or are on social security!

  what he does not realize and neither do the powers that be is that there is another who has much more power than they who has his plans and they shall not be thwarted!

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:10 | 3107949 Salon
Salon's picture

Well. Then fuckin go to work brown shirts.

Lets see what y'all are made of.

I think they are a bunch of pussies and will cave in a week

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:14 | 3107956 Everyman
Everyman's picture

Salon, you are a totally misinformed ass.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:17 | 3107967 davidsmith
davidsmith's picture

This coup won't depend on the base, or the masses, period.  It will come in the form of a promise to get a collapsing economy back on track.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:37 | 3108008 CH1
CH1's picture

The economy is about to get torpedoed... and not by Tea Partiers.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 01:11 | 3108261 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

The voting public is about to be hoisted by their own petard.

Non-voters are the collateral damage.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:13 | 3107952 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

The dirty, rotten SOB's in the House and Senate should be run out of office for failing to take care of the country's business, keep us from the slavery of debt, and letting the country go down the drain.  Obama doesn't get off the hook either as he has seen fit to propose budgets that his Democrat controlled Senate has voted down.  The hell with 'em.!!!!!!!!!!

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:29 | 3107989 franzpick
franzpick's picture

Cheer up.

If Mr. Market can regain his voice after Ben and Tim's strangulation attempt, the fiscal cliff dive and the ensuing bond, stock, bank and commerce collapse will reveal how quickly we are next approaching the political cliff.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:45 | 3108032 franzpick
franzpick's picture

You ABC, CBS, NBC and CNN corporate media goons: can you say "Political Cliff"? Can't you see the political cliff just coming over the horizon now? Practice saying political cliff, before your voices run dry during the probable upcoming financial and civil unrest.


Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:38 | 3108011 CH1
CH1's picture

The dirty, rotten SOB's in the House and Senate should be run out of office for failing to take care of the country's business

At this point, the blame is also yours, for expecting politicians to save you. Get the fuck over it.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 01:26 | 3108269 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Run out of office? The President just gave them all a raise!

(A little one, but still...)

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:39 | 3108016 RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

You have the Tea party very mistakenly mixed up with the fascist left - probably done deliberately.  You couldn't be further off the track - which makes me think your're just a lefty troll trying to misdirect your own actions onto others.  (Lefties always accuse others of doing exactly what it is they are pulling.)  The Tea Party wants a return to the Constitution, the rule of law,  fiscal conservativism, and minimal government.  Much closer to libertarian than anything else. 

Your bullshit doesn't fly...

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:49 | 3108042 franzpick
franzpick's picture

I saw it too. When anyone sees trash in the road ahead, best to step over it.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 03:00 | 3108325 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

Indeed, those who know history understand what the tea party both original and current is really all about, "no taxation without representation!"  We producers will pull a Galt as is going on in France if the entitled groups (the affluent non-profit sector (i.e. .gov) push us too far.  We uniformly oppose any increase in the debt limit, and thus debt backed fiat currency and thus its pimp/enabler, the FED.    The Fabian Socialists, whose symbol is the wolf in sheeps clothing, as represented by Obama, his party, and the European nannycrats are all about one world government, collectivism, bailouts and total lack of regard for the individual and free markets.  The latter are the engine which drives the world.  Just ask yourself which party is the party of gun grabbers like Feinstein and Schumer?  And what do all fascist regimes do upon taking power-grab the guns.  It the same one which admires China for its complete top down control of the economy and all sources of information.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 06:36 | 3108391 dogfish
dogfish's picture

To Davidsmith

Who is it that is leading the charge to disarm the common man. Its not the tea party.  Obozo leads the brown shirts,now fall in.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 07:34 | 3108405 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

yeah +1, brown shirts are already there. TSA, homeland security, et al. armed guards at schools! WTF

show the kids what responsbilty is, owning a gun and protercting  the ones you love. not cowering in a closet and lying to them that " its all going to be alright, now shush! "

 the fucken teachers should be armed if they chose to be.

the tea party would never go for all the gov ran protections, its much easier and cheaper  . and freer , to let the cizens go armed.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 20:56 | 3107802 grunk
grunk's picture

Someone will add an amendment that grabs all guns, but sign it quick, otherwise we go over the cliff.

Read it later.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:12 | 3107848 Everyman
Everyman's picture

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has introduced a new bill that he says would soften the impact of going over the fiscal cliff.

It’s called the Cliff Alleviation at the Last Minute (CALM) Act, and Manchin says he’s not happy to author it.

“This is not a great plan, merely a better plan than going over the cliff,” Manchin said in a floor speech. “It should never have come to this.”

The measure would phase in the looming tax increases over three years, rather than all at once, and allow the Office of Management and Budget to pick which programs would be cut rather than having the across-the-board cuts contained in sequestration.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:15 | 3107853 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

does the clam act do anything about the AMT?

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:14 | 3107957 Desp
Desp's picture

I was looking for that same info. I can't find a place to read the bill.. Where is the bill?

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:19 | 3107972 knukles
knukles's picture

You don't get to read it until after its passed.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:26 | 3107985 nmewn
nmewn's picture

So, situation normal then. Excellent!

Back to Hawaii!!!

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:28 | 3107877 Absalon
Absalon's picture

I suggest an amendment: government cheques would stop going to people in Republican states.  That should reduce the deficit.  There should be minimal public backlash - Republican voters have said they want radically smaller government and so they should be onside with losing their personal benefits.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:51 | 3107918 Everyman
Everyman's picture

You are an ass. SO the "Republican States" have to keep paying in and not receive anything??? Only a lefty loon can think that way.  In a funny way you are proving "the majority" should be voting on reduction of spending for all and a requirement that those in the free shit army need to start fucking paying.

Go get your own fucking shit, o-phones, and income and quit welching off me.  You keep stealing, and you are going to have a hole in your fucking head.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:36 | 3108003 nmewn
nmewn's picture

lol...all for it!!!

Pick any "republican state" you wish and go and staple your fantastic new proposal to every light pole around downtown, grab a bullhorn and yell for everyone down there to come check it out!

I'll cover you from down the street...I promise ;-)

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:46 | 3108087 Karlus
Karlus's picture

"I suggest an amendment: government cheques would stop going to people in Republican states."

Completely agree and would like to amend your bill with a rider stipulating no foodstuff, natural gas or oil be transferred from red state to blue. Starving with no gas to head anywhere.

Civil War checkmate.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 10:58 | 3108834 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

I agree.  Red States should go all John Galt on Washington's arse.  I'll send pictures of the Blue decay from my porch.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 20:36 | 3107744 Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

Go Amerika..... let's get the drinking ON!  -  A sing-a-long.... the chorus is easy enough.

Can't wait :X



Sun, 12/30/2012 - 20:36 | 3107745 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Obama WANTS to go over the fiscal cliff, raise taxes, cut defense spending and demonize Republicans. Wish we still had gold at Ft Knox!

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 20:59 | 3107809 grunk
grunk's picture

I know that sounds like his end game, but how does he get away with fucking over the Military/Industrial Complex? 

Especially in the D.C. area?

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 20:59 | 3107810 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

So, defense spending is off limits for cuts and this is only about demonizing Republicans? Maybe you should go back to watching Faux news and listening to Rush. Reality will prove to be a harsh mistress for naive minds.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:24 | 3108111 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Our world is so removed from reality no one will know it when they see it. BTFD!

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 20:48 | 3107774 Bob
Bob's picture

Fiscal Cliff has a dramatic ring, doesn't it?  Why would the finance industry be so strident about whatever austerity they can get everybody else to swallow?

America’s Deceptive 2012 Fiscal Cliff

Not that there's anything wrong with taking more advice from the Masters of the Universe, of course.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 20:51 | 3107792 q99x2
q99x2's picture

We need to replace them with an open source software system.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 20:52 | 3107794 CashIsTrash
CashIsTrash's picture

I can't wait to wake up tomorrow, turn on CNBC, and see the DOW down over 800 points, all the while hearing all the fuckheads panicking!

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:37 | 3107893 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Maria will become even more strident, her mascara running down her face.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:16 | 3107963 OMG
OMG's picture

Naw she is used to being fucked by a hydraulic jack hammer tis nothng but a flesh wound

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:26 | 3108116 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Shit, the DOW will be trading -750 and she'll be blabbering how "the DOW is well off it's lows" - haha.  


Either way - I hope this fucker takes a big Happy New Year shit all over D.C.  


Kevin better get a good night's sleep tonight, he will be needed.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 20:56 | 3107801 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

The direction of that reversion—either production up to meet consumption or consumption down to meet production and confirm a recession within the United States—is wholly on the shoulders of the politicians in Washington D.C.

The author extols the omnipotent nature of the spendthrift d.c. politicos. Interesting.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:25 | 3107868 Salon
Salon's picture


The tired "output gap" thinking.

Damn you Keynes! We have a much bigger problem than a current output gap.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 20:57 | 3107805 Absalon
Absalon's picture

The Republicans are in a trap of their own devising.  The Senate will pass some temporary band aid fix in the next few days.  Congress will dramatically amend the fix and send it back.  The Senate will then vote No, or refuse to vote, and all hell will break loose.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:27 | 3107875 Salon
Salon's picture


Bring on the endgame now so my grandkids can catch the beginning of the next cycle of credit expansion

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:08 | 3107835 Tourist2008
Tourist2008's picture

I tried reading the paper, but my head hurt .... it sort of smacks of all the detailed and wrong forecasting that got us here in the first place and I can´t help feeling that their research is in some way indirectly taxpayer funded .... so bring it on Cliff !

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:12 | 3108093 Karlus
Karlus's picture

Whats great is the sheeple have exactly zero clue what is going down. Their first wake up (for the sharp ones) will be a smaller check if they notice.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 02:02 | 3108292 The Joker
The Joker's picture

I noticed.  FICA already increased from 4.4% to 6.2% for my next check this week.  And I'm expecting more deductions by the time this is all said and done.  But you're right, I've seen it coming for months, my wife is shocked and mad...and a democrat!

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:10 | 3107837 j-dub
j-dub's picture

Advertising has us chasing fiscal cliffs and debt ceilings, working writing jobs we hate, so we can buy shit we don't need - Tyler Durden

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:19 | 3107859 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

second attempt..for soem reason i got logged out of ZH and it couldnt detect my proxies via scribd/facebook...hmmm...

anyone know if anyone has done a ten year comparison of the three main measures of GDP (expenditure, income and product)?

seems to me that these will no longer reconcile or indeed are even useful. even this joker doesn't show where the expenditure based GDP of C + G + I + (X-M) should be adjusted for central bank money printing (i think it should be characterized by the letter F - Fed or F*&k-up)

point is the income measure includes net interest which will have some interesting numbers for the effects of ZIRP and the product based one will be interesting to make international comparisons in the global race to debase that passes for the market rigging by massive state intervention (US, UK, Europe and Japan, plus so called Asian tigers).

The product based one using PPP will be fraught with problems BUT, I would hazard a guess that a measure of corruption within economies and markets is the differences between the three.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:25 | 3107866 Elmer Fudd
Elmer Fudd's picture

Haggling over the Fiscal Cliff sounds so much better than calling it "raising the Debt Ceiling or default." Anyone who uses the term Fiscal Cliff has bought the BS, so its my current metric of whether that media source is an idiot or worth paying attention to. 

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:39 | 3107898 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

All this time I thought they meant physical cliff, as in out of gold.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:22 | 3107975 knukles
knukles's picture


Physical Cleft?

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:32 | 3107880 sunnyside
sunnyside's picture

Was talking with several people about this a few weeks ago and one lady made the comment, "I don't know why all this is happening, Obama won the election, we should just let him rule."    Yes, she said the word "rule".

I backed out of the conversation after that.  With a majority (or even plurality) of people like this, we have absolutley no chance.  Time to just sit back, gather what I think will help, and watch it all unfold.


Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:15 | 3108097 Karlus
Karlus's picture

I can help you with your list of things you will need:

Lightweight AR15
1500 rds of M855 penetrators in 30rd magpuls
MREs for 6 months

Oh, almost forgot...

Lots of lube and condoms for people that think like that. You will want to protect yourself....

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:34 | 3107888 PUD
PUD's picture

No, it is not in the hands of politicians. You cannot legislate prosperity. You cannot legislate that the laws of mathematics be repealed and compounding interest from money as debt no longer applies. You cannot command consumption nor can you command endless natural resources to exploit. You cannot legislate that nations stop doing what serves them and theirs nor can you legislate that nature yields to your will. Economies are incredibly complex entities that ultimately are moved by natural law and mathematics not hope, desire, well wishing, wants, or man made decrees 

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:39 | 3107899 drwillia1
drwillia1's picture

Who cares about news, its all rigged you just need to know when to trade. This game is designed to take your money away from you its the only thing they have against compound interest

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:53 | 3107922 SKY85hawk
SKY85hawk's picture

Everyone has been talking about the need to reduce spending.

Later, later . . .

Congress DID THEIR JOB last  year when they agreed on the changes that are now called the Fiscal Cliff. 

It's not a Tax Increase. 

It's a reset to the tax levels Bill Clinton used to begin SURPLUSES AS FAR AS THE EYE CAN SEE.

In the past, the new President would move to solve America’s problems in the beginning of his term. Then he  hoped that voters would forget the pain before the next election cranked up.

This time nobody remembers who started the fiscal adjustments, so nobody can be blamed for pain from changes that are actually necessary. 

Very clever!

But, Obama and Boehner and Harry Reid and Congress and the Senate did SIGN the   Budget Control Act of 2011 into law.

The100 billion dollar cut in DISCRETIONARY spending will not affect the social safety Net.
It will affect lots of 'non-essential' govt employees, Clinton said 98% are non-ssential.
I suspect all these MSM sound bites are coming from people that don't want to suffer like the rest of us have.


Thank You for listening.


Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:04 | 3107939 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"It's not a Tax Increase.

It's a reset to the tax levels Bill Clinton used to begin SURPLUSES AS FAR AS THE EYE CAN SEE."

If you can't convey decent sarcasm best to leave it alone.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:29 | 3107990 SKY85hawk
SKY85hawk's picture

The truth is far more disgusting than my writing skills.

Thanks for agreeing with the main idea.


Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:54 | 3107923 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

S&P futures down 7pts? Lol.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:05 | 3107940 Salon
Salon's picture

Eeek! The sky is falling.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:59 | 3107928 PassedOut
PassedOut's picture

As expected they will make a deal on the last day. This basiquely means taxes will rise slightly on thoses who are in position to avoid them anyway. Of course real spending cuts will never happend, they will be accounting gimmicks at best.

It is quite quite sad that none of the real issues will be adressed. They really had a nice opportunity.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:04 | 3107938 Salon
Salon's picture

This fiscal cliff is such a tempest in a teapot, even if temporarily breaching it was pre ordained.

I will be lucky to make 5% on my SDS next week. I couldnt possibly expect more.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:08 | 3107944 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

Skip the math - NO JOBS = NO MONEY = NO ECONOMY = HARD TIMES.  Is it that hard to understand?

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:08 | 3107947 chump666
chump666's picture

They will bang something out, markets aren't short, EUR shorts have been cut and all long.  USD is selling hard.  The money printers last gasp for 2012, juicy indication how 2013 will be is the flash crash on futures a few days back. 

Meantime...enjoy the end of 2012

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:15 | 3107954 One World Mafia
One World Mafia's picture

Without real cuts to the US military and bases around the world, which we know they won't do, at most the dollar has a few months before inflation takes off.  Or can China/other countries prolong it by buying more debt? If so, how long?

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:17 | 3107966 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Wile E. Coyote reminder:

Whether it’s caused by fiscal cliff, debt ceiling, Europe or something else, it doesn’t really matter because as noted before – another crash is guaranteed.

It’s a no brainer.
Charts don’t lie.

More updates

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:37 | 3108007 tooriskytoinvest
tooriskytoinvest's picture

If George Bush Sr. doesn't die before tommorw night his family might loose millions of $s due to "Fiscal Cliff"

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 01:27 | 3108271 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

He should have died in childbirth.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:38 | 3108013 Cable Guy
Cable Guy's picture

Nothing gets done.  No balanced budget.  No immigration reform.  No pension reform.  We still have troops in the middle east.  You think they'll take your guns?  Address fiscal cliff?  LOL.  Its all over folks.....

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:55 | 3108057 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Should be titled "The Artificial Construct; Using Crisis for Control and Oppression."


Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:14 | 3108091 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Here's all the S&P Sovereign credit ratings as of 12-21-2012.  Also CFTC Financial Futures most recent.  Enjoy.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 23:43 | 3108102 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

The FED is not in charge and neither are the politicos.  There is only one thing in complete control of the situation and that is the giant pile of debt that has been amassed over the past 40 years.  If interest rates rise just 100 basis points, the USG will have to pony up over $150B more just to satiate it.  Inflation will be contained because it says, "FEED ME!!!". Mean reversion is a bitch...get used to it.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 00:07 | 3108182 mt paul
mt paul's picture

cliffs are for coyotes

not economies ...

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 00:42 | 3108229 sitenine
sitenine's picture

I don't see Americans getting more productive anytime soon. So it's pretty clear what's going to happen. Call it a cliff if you want, or smooth it out over as much time as possible. Same end result. I find it quite humorous that anyone still tries to act surprised when they finally accept it. Blame is human I suppose, so some of us are at least still human even though we act like monsters.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 01:21 | 3108267 NOPOMO
NOPOMO's picture

Our government is like a bunch of clowns riding in a clown car. 

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 02:51 | 3108322 James-Morrison
James-Morrison's picture

There is no cliff.

"Step a way from your iJunk..."

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 02:55 | 3108323 James-Morrison
James-Morrison's picture

This is the end
Beautiful friend
This is the end
My only friend, the end

-- The Doors

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 03:24 | 3108333 devo
devo's picture

Does this market have any upside?

Even if the cliff is 'resolved' I don't see how the market gets past 13500 with collapsing earnings. That collecting nickles in front of a bulldozer analogy seems accurate.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 08:15 | 3108432 BrigstockBoy
BrigstockBoy's picture

"It's my new favorite, Chocolate Frosted Sugar Bombs." - Calvin and Hobbes

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 08:27 | 3108443 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

"The direction of that reversion—either production up to meet consumption or consumption down to meet production and confirm a recession within the United States—is wholly on the shoulders of the politicians in Washington D.C." 


You have a lot of faith in politicians: "OK. We decide 'production up.'" 

And that is going to happen within what time frame?

You are right about the power to take consumption down. But we all learned that lesson when losing our allowance to laziness in the third grade... 

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