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InTrade Odds Of Deal By December 31 Plunge To 2.2%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While EURUSD is flat, there is one market open (free of manipulation - perhaps) that offers some insights into traders' perceptions of reality - however 'cautiously', 'modestly', 'surreally' optimistic the powers that be proclaim. InTrade's "debt ceiling by Dec. 31st" odds have plunged to around 2%. A week ago, when we continued to urge readers to short the contract, it was at 10% (and at 30% when we initialy said on Novermber 13th no deal would occur) - even as everyone and their pet rabbit was convinced a deal was going to be cobbled together. The 'debt ceiling' odds are implicitly the 'fiscal cliff' odds given Harry Reid's insistence of the 'bundling' to remove every possible point of leverage from the Republicans:

We would be somewhat foolish to work out something on stopping us from going over the cliff and then a month or six weeks later Republicans pull the same game they did before and say, 'We're not going to do anything — unless this happens, we're not going to agree to increasing the debt ceiling,’ ” Reid said.

 

I agree with the president, it has to be a package deal,” he added.

At around 2% odds, this still seems like money good for shorts...

 

 

Source: InTrade

 

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Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:21 | 3107112 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

BTFD !!!

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:24 | 3107121 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Is freedom under-owned? Long AR15s.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:32 | 3107141 Freddie
Freddie's picture

What is the hardest thing in America to get right now?  AR15, .223 and PMags.  Insane.

Maybe the pubic is starting to wake up.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:57 | 3107214 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Yes. And it only takes a completely disgruntled 5% or so to waken the rest and bring things to a head. Not far in my opinion. Not far.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 17:00 | 3107227 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

What happens to Michelle Obama's wardrobe if she loses the right to bare arms?

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 17:02 | 3107233 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Is freedom under-owned? Long AR15s.

If you wanted one, you have waited far too long,not available anywhere.And no matter, they plan on criminalizing the ownership, of them and all hi caps,,and all handguns of the same vein, yes.If you do not register them, and give blood, and frst born, you will go to prison for life, and lose all your savings/assets,everything.

You will be a felon,and we know what happens when agencies seize Illegal items(they also take all you have forever).

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 17:17 | 3107277 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

"Is freedom under-owned?"

...distribution-wise,,, yes

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 20:17 | 3107691 ball-and-chain
ball-and-chain's picture

If I were Obama, I wouldn't compromise.

He smoked Romney.  Now he has a mandate.

I'd make every Republican in congress kiss my ass.

No kidding.

http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2012/12/sunday_30.html

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:25 | 3107123 magpie
magpie's picture

Release the algos

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:26 | 3107127 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

All these fuckers do is run for office........

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:31 | 3107129 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

and all those fuckers do is vote for those fuckers to be elected...

everybody feels somehting needs to happen but by that they mean they want a piece of the pie.

NOBODY is thinking when they say something needs to change: we should fix this shit and cut back.
nop... everybody wants a million bucks without doing shit. and that's why they vote for the shitheads who promise shit to them and they eat the shit and talk shit when they notice they didn't get that million bucks for free.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:48 | 3107187 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

91% of Congress got re-elected last time despite a 10% approval rating.

You do the math. And put the mother fucking blame where it 100% belongs:

THE AMERICAN VOTER

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 17:15 | 3107269 you enjoy myself
you enjoy myself's picture

that's not entirely fair - its the press.  most people can't spend all day reading up on politics and finance, or checking out source material.  for instance, how many mainstream press outlets even make mention of the fact that if Obama got all the taxes he was asking for, it would pay for 4-5 days of govt?  a casual news consumer doesn't ever, ever hear "President Obama again insisted that those making $250K or more return to the Clinton rates, which if agreed to by Republicans would fund 4 days worth of spending".  instead, those casual news consumers honestly, and in good faith, believe that those making over $250k pay less in taxes than they do, and that if we raised taxes on them we'd be on a path to balanced budget.  i don't blame them all that much because i don't expect them to dive into CBO reports or read TheHill. 

what percentage of voters think Social Security has a trust fund, not IOU's, and is solvent?   probably well over 50%.  if the press actually did its job (and weren't innummerate) that would be more like 5%.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 17:37 | 3107328 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

sure... not everybody can read up all day...

but they don't read anything at all!

not including Harry Potter and the likes...

Anything that isn't a dreamworld is boring to most people.
That's why all bestsellers are fantasy books about fantasy worlds.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 18:05 | 3107388 valley chick
valley chick's picture

sorry YEM..had to down arrow you.  I am calling bullshit when I see it.  This is exactly what is wrong with society today...blaming somebody else.  They got time to watch Dancing with the Stars or American Idol or plaster face pics on farcebook.  I don't think you could put any educational links on farcebook that they would even look at for they have nanosecond attention span and no critical thinking. 

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 18:59 | 3107484 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

Yeah but the voters, can spend ALL DAY SUNDAY watching football and tons of time during the week watching Jersey Shore, American Idol, Beiber and the Kardashians.  They also can camp out for days on end to get into Wal Mart on black thursday.  I REPEAT: THEY RE-ELECTED THE ONES THEY COLLECTIVELY DISDAIN.

Over and over again.

Fuck that.

EXCUSES ARE LIES.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 17:20 | 3107293 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

THE AMERICAN VOTER/DIEBOLD.....Tree of liberty?

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 17:45 | 3107350 Meatballs
Meatballs's picture

Not neccessarily wrong, but given the 'choices' presented WTF? No one with integrity can be elected to this circus- nor do they want to be.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:54 | 3107207 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Giving O the ability to raise the Debt ceiling at will, would be akin to shooting oneself in the head with a 44 Mag.

Anyone w/ half a brain knows where that would take us.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:26 | 3107128 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

well... and suddenly they agree and wipe out every short in the market...

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:32 | 3107142 jim249
jim249's picture

and sudenly they agree..........to play kick the can.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:33 | 3107146 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

that can is already equiped with rocket boosters :)

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 17:04 | 3107238 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

.....and the can gets kicked into a house of cards

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:28 | 3107131 Freddie
Freddie's picture

F Hairy Reid, Pelosi, Dear Mullah!  

They all should be in prison with that evil b*tch Hillary.  She has her concussion to dodge testifying while the newsmedia covers for her and O.  Meanwhile she is flying around the world with her "concussion" while Bill shakes down more people for his "foundation."

I don't like the GOp but the media let the other scum get away with everything.   Exec Orders to give everyone a raise.  O loots America and TV and Hollywood cheer.  F them!

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 17:10 | 3107256 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Someone else posted this a few days ago (apologies, I don't remember who)...but it deserves to be posted again:

Demand A Plan? Demand Celebrities Go F*ck Themselves [Extended Cut]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1SZurGArxE

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 17:53 | 3107372 Meatballs
Meatballs's picture

+10000000000000000000000

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:29 | 3107136 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Fear not. The markets will open red in a few hours but will be mysteriously ramped up to open flat or green tomorrow morning.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:32 | 3107143 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

all I care are my gold calls :)
so the faster Ob$m$ gets his pocket change, the faster I make money :)

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:33 | 3107145 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Don't get penisy, kid.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:32 | 3107144 Poqit
Poqit's picture

InTrade free of manipulation?  Romney begs to differ, but I don't think anyone has an incentive to manipulate this contract....or get a deal done.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:33 | 3107147 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I wonder what the intrade odds of boilermaker completely losing his shit is tomorrow when the market opens up. even if there is no deal.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:36 | 3107155 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Who dat?

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:43 | 3107170 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

he comes on during the week and has a stroke everytime the market closes up miraculously at the end of the day.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:49 | 3107194 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Must be that GOP'er Kernan. He so smart.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:35 | 3107152 Getting Old Sucks
Getting Old Sucks's picture

"At around 2% odds"

 

GOOD!

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:50 | 3107157 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

America already voted for limitless cloudy debt limits and trillion dollar printing days.
Why bother?
Obama got elected.
America doesn't give a fuck.
America wants to destroy it's dollar.

no argument right?

I don't understand why they even bother to talk about it anymore.

And those who don't agree. want a strong dollar. want a strong America....

Sorry... you're a minority. and minorties usually get killed in America.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:45 | 3107172 wisefool
wisefool's picture

I have had very, very difficult jobs in life. Even at that difficulty level, if I failed. I did not get paid. What these people are doing is not rocket surgery. If they can not do their jobs, they should not get paid. If they use a gun to take their pay anyway, they shall be judged.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:53 | 3107196 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Welcoming retail shoppers can be a very difficult task. Tag, your it.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 17:03 | 3107234 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Me and P.T. Barnum shutdown the freakshow a long time ago. It was cruel to the guests (as you mentioned) that thought they were smarter than the differently gifted people on the payroll.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:56 | 3107215 foxmuldar
foxmuldar's picture

Only one side has been willing to budge. that was the Republicans and even their own folks didn't like it. What does it matter if the GOP takes the blame now or in a few weeks when the debt ceiling needs to be raised again. At some point the Republicans have to hold their ground and say enough is enough. Time to cut spending. Obama and his socialist regime only know spending. Only thing they are willing to cut is the military. That fits into Obama's plans of weakening our country and turning it into just another banana republic where he can be the supreme dictator. Not one Democratic senator would vote for Obama's budget when he did submit one. Doesn't that say all we need to know about how full of It Obama really is? 

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:47 | 3107186 Atomizer
Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:51 | 3107195 jvetter713
jvetter713's picture

I spent all day looking for extra stuff...mags, ammo, etc..  Shit is slim pickens right now.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:53 | 3107204 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

go online and check who also owns a gun and raid their house?

best thing ever....

you want a gun?
google the locations, steal it, and shoot somebody with a gun registered on somebody else his name...

you want to arm a army? no problem! thousands of guns available!

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 16:52 | 3107201 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

this is absolutely hideous ... you would think at least the measure can pass the senate. Well ... at least the mega rich milk producing corporations will continue to get bailed out on tax payers dime.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 17:29 | 3107310 q99x2
q99x2's picture

If they can't control their world they need to quit trying and seek help. They have a problem. Fuck the debt junkies.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 18:33 | 3107443 speconomist
speconomist's picture

10% odds right now.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 19:00 | 3107506 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

One more thing.....who wants to wager that when SSI taxes go up automatically next month by 2% that the vast majority of the unwashed masses will think it's the (fill in the blank), even IF a deal is reached? 

There is no hope.  

Just take care of yourselves and each other. Let everyone else wallow in their own shit. They voted for it. They believe in it. Apparently they want more of the same.

I learned long ago to not get into the way of someone and their stupidity. It's called "enabling".  It only postpones the consequences and the lessons needed to be learned.

 

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 05:22 | 3108367 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Wile E Coyote awaits...

Whether it’s caused by fiscal cliff, debt ceiling, Europe or something else, it doesn’t really matter because as noted before – another crash is guaranteed.

It’s a no brainer.
Charts don’t lie.

http://trader618.com
@grandsupercycle

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