3% Market Ramp... On No Deal, And On Debt Ceiling Breach

Tyler Durden's picture

S&P 500 futures staged a 3% rally off their overnight lows - taking them back to 3-day highs as  headline after headline triggered another round of stop-runs. VIX compression led the way as hedges were pushed off to March and higher levels enabled better exits above Friday's plunge VWAP levels. The year ends with the Dow beating Gold for the first time in nine years (just). The USD fell 0.5% on the year (and the JPY -12.8%!!). European stocks beat US stocks (EuroStoxx50 almost doubling the Dow's performance). US Treasuries and US stocks both rallied. Financials gained 26% on the year. The Treasury curve flattened with the front-end selling off modestly and the belly rallying 10-15bps. VIX was unchanged from the start of the year at the open today - but thanks to the epic compression and steepening we have fallen back (VIX lower on the year).

 

Of course, today's epic ramp really dislocated from risk-asset reality as soon as Bonds closed...

 

Epic rampathon - to 3-day highs...

 

Basically ES has roundtripped from the open on Boxing Day - just look at the distribution...

 

Which rescued the S&P from a fate worse than death - a December in the red!!

 

Treasury Curve from 12/30/11 to 12/31/12...

 

VIX on the year...

 

US Equity Indices YTD (and AAPL)...

 

Sectors YTD...

 

Financials YTD!!

 

Asset Classes YTD - Dow beats Gold by 0.3% for first time in nine years...

 

and in FX land - the USD ended down a measly 0.5% as JPY slumped almost 13% against the USD...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: AAPL's epic stop-run-athon today...

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: What is going on in HY credit - notably bid as Advancers far beyond Decliners relative to IG credit - very unusual pattern...

 

Bonus Bonus Bonus Chart: The S&P 500 and its JPY and EUR relationship this year - The Year of the Central Bank Ramp hand off... ECB prints into New Year (LTRO); BoJ prints into LTRO2, then market left alone - turns chaotic; ECB told to print to QE3 and OMT - market turns chaotic; BoJ steps back in to print - market ramps...