Chinese Think Tank: "Conflict With Japan Inevitable"

Tyler Durden's picture

Shinzo Abe's re-election on the basis of his monetary policy aggression plans have sent the JPY reeling (as he hoped for) and the NKY soaring - but it is his more aggressive perspective on patriotism that could lead to far greater problems. As the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently noted,all eyes are fixed on Abe as "Japan’s nationalization of the Diaoyu Islands destroyed the framework for keeping a balance, which means ‘shelving a conflict'," a Chinese diplomatic source said, adding that "China has no political methods to return the situation to the (pre-nationalization) state. Therefore, there are no other ways except for looking for a new framework." As a precondition for establishing the framework, an executive of the think tank said, "Prime Minister Shinzo Abe should not take actions that heighten the tensions further. It is the same as a game of go. If Japan escalates the conflict, China will be prepared to respond to the move." As a result, Japan-China relations will enter into a highly volatile period, ruining any hope of a resurgence in Japan's real economy, and more worryingly, the think-tank concludes, China's conflict with Japan is inevitable.


Via The Asahi Shimbun,

With the rise of China as Asia's leading economic power, a Chinese government think tank says the nation's conflict with Japan over the Senkaku Islands is inevitable at a time when its bilateral relations are changing as a consequence.


The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) also said in its annual report that the two countries’ relationship will enter into a highly unstable period.


While thinking that the conflict over the islands could be prolonged, China is now paying attention to what action the new Japanese government, headed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, will take.


The “report on the development of the Asia-Pacific region” points out that China’s rapid development is raising anxieties in surrounding nations, forcing them into taking precautions and requiring them to accept the “readjustment” of the power balance.


As for the Senkaku Islands, the report explained that Japan’s right-wing groups, which have gained strength through the country’s two decades of a sluggish economy called “the lost 20 years,” regarded U.S. policy of “pivoting to Asia” as the best opportunity to nationalize the islands. In September, Japan purchased three of the five Senkaku Islands, called the Diaoyu Islands in China, from a private landowner.


Until the new power balance is established in the fields of politics and economics, prolongation of the conflict is inevitable. As a result, Japan-China relations will enter into a highly volatile period, the report said.


“Japan’s nationalization of the Diaoyu Islands destroyed the framework for keeping a balance, which means ‘shelving a conflict,’ ” a Chinese diplomatic source said.


“China has no political methods to return the situation to the (pre-nationalization) state. Therefore, there are no other ways except for looking for a new framework,” the source said.


In a symposium held on Dec. 28, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Zhijun said, “China and Japan should find crisis management methods through dialogue.”


With the comment, Zhang showed willingness to establish a framework for preventing possible clashes between vessels or aircraft around the Senkaku Islands from escalating into a military conflict.


As a precondition for establishing the framework, an executive of a think tank said, “Prime Minister Shinzo Abe should not take actions that heighten the tensions further.”


Since the days before Dec. 26 when the Abe government was formed, Beijing has been paying close attention to Abe’s hard-line remarks, such as stationing public servants on the Senkaku Islands or making visits to Yasukuni Shrine, which honors not only Japanese war dead, but also Class-A war criminals.


“It is the same as a game of go. If Japan escalates the conflict, China will be prepared to respond to the move,” the executive said.


Gao Hong, deputy director of the CASS’s Institute of Japanese Studies, said, “It is necessary for Japan-China relations to return to the original point of the two countries seeking long-term profits in their relationship.”


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GetZeeGold's picture



It's on like Donkey Kong.

TotalCarp's picture

Question is: when? Chinese are not dumb, right now they have far more to loose then to gain from an "hot" conflict. Japan is a brilliant pressure valve for them - when the populus will start grumbling again about commies in charge they will turn up the heat, burn down a few jap car dealerships in some random city noone ever heard of etc.
Too much to loose for now.. But when (hardly if anymore) US foreign policy folds in on itself they will stand ready.

oak's picture

when? it will not be decided by china, but, by japan. china can careless about the timing, but, japan does.

realitybiter's picture

C hina   I  n   A  ction.....

The goal of the agency is to create conflict around the world, thereby distracting them from US.  I'm sure we have told both sides, "Hell yes!!  Those are your islands!"

kliguy38's picture

And for your next diversion with major fireworks............we give you CHIPAN

orangegeek's picture

And now the US has another two customers to add to their list.  The defense business is booming.


In the end, this should thin out some of that dense population on China's east coast.

Hugh_Jorgan's picture

Many countries are thinking war to try to play out an advantageous financial reset. Expect the situation in the world to get more ugly from here.


“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. …”  ~Earnest Hemingway

Catullus's picture

Turns out currency devaluation is called default.  And Japan is China's biggest trading partner. 

I believe someone called this the "Most Idiotic ZeroHedge Conspiracy Theory of the Week".


realitybiter's picture

touche, bitchez.  tou freakin che


Watched 13 assassins the other day.  Awesome, samurai movie.  Well written, fight scenes believable, but fantastic enough....good guys win.

Your prognostication has allowed you to snatch the pebble grasshopper.....

Oldballplayer's picture

Black Swan Bitchez....

It was visible from a hundred miles away...but it will shock the shit out oif almost everyone.


Dr. Engali's picture

Zero Hedge think tank.... World wide conflict inevitable.

yrbmegr's picture

Also...somebody will lose a lot of money.

jjsilver's picture

Order out of chaos

apberusdisvet's picture

Within 5 years, a significant portion of northern Japan (including Tokyo) will be an uninhabitable nuclear wasteland due to the constant radiation from Fukushima.  The Japanese economy is toast, regardless of fiscal or monetary policy.

yrbmegr's picture

The silver lining, of course, is that Japan will not need to defend itself, since nobody wants to take over a radioactive wasteland.

Freddie's picture

Hopefully Pelosi's Nor Cal vineyards are radioactive and that she gives bottles of her wine to all the Dems in Congress.  Evil witch.

kinetik's picture

Because wishing cancer on people of a certain political party is so not evil. Please stop posting.

Colonel Klink's picture

Boo hoo!  Did dat hurt yo wittle feelwings?

He did happen to say Dem members of CONgress, obviously being her party.  Frankly you should be happy for anything bad that befalls any of them.  Although I must agree with you that it shouldn't only be the Dem members.  I say give them radioactive anything.  The sooner we can get rid of the parasites in CONgress as well as most FEDERAL government, the better off our nation will be.  The Federalists have won.  We are a nation of STATES, which is supposed to have a very thin veil of Federal checks and balances for interstate trade/disputes and national defense. 80% of what the federal government does is not directed in our founding documents.  It's been a slow creep of federal control over the past 200 years.

Apparently we no longer have any honest and decent people willing to run for office as independent or third parts, in order to right this nation.  1 or 2 won't do it.  We need a mass FLUSH of CONgress in order for change to be achieved.  Unfortunately that never happens, or when it does it's the other head of the snake who gets in, with little change ever happening.  Usually because those new members are corrupted/coopted by "the lobbists".

What this country needs is an enema!  The entry point for which is right there at the asshole of Washington DC.

Oh and BTW, please feel free to take your own advice and stop posting yourself.  M'kay pumpkin?

/rant off


oak's picture

so true, Abe's monetary policy will fail miserablly in no time.

Random's picture

I'll believe it when i'll see it vis-a-vis the nuclear waste land. Until that time better keep your pants on. As to the point,  China vs. Japan really means China + North Corea vs. Japan + US + South Corea + NATO + Israel (a long shot tho as i don't see the Jews moving a muscle) + Saudi Arabia et all (cutting oil supply), with Russia and the rest of the BICS as a wild card (Russians are not that in love with either US or the Chinese - the Chinese are trying to claim parts of far eastern Siberia by infiltrating population across the border).

JustObserving's picture

Good to start the new year on hopes of peace and freedom.

Conflict, tyranny and war were so 2012.

yogibear's picture

As soon as they get the latest updates for their US top secret weapons direct from the Chinese/Taiwanese  nationals working at the US defense contractors.

The Chinese already know how to neutralize many US weapon systems.


Henry Hub's picture

Actually how it works is that we give our top secret weapons to the Israelis and then they sell them to the Chinese.

Colonel Klink's picture

"Actually how it works is that anything not nailed down is stolen by the Zionists and then is sold to the highest bidder, in order to benefit the chosen people."


Fixed it for you.

tango's picture

I am still amazed that ZH posters know details that the CIA, State Dept, NY Times, Wikipedia and the general public doesn't.  Whether it's training camps, numerous cabals "secretly" (lol) running things,  the motives of the 1%, CEOs and politicians (shady and nefarious),  what markets will do (usually wrong), the date of collapse (always wrong), standing up for unsavory dictators. Now: "The Chinese already know how to neutralize many US weapon systems." I'm sure the Pentagon has never considered this scenario.

Bollixed's picture

"I am still amazed that ZH posters know details that the CIA, State Dept, NY Times, Wikipedia and the general public doesn't"

The writing on the wall is clearly visable to those who look. However, with advertising dollars at stake the MSM is not about to point to the vomit spot on the carpet during dinner. Hence the consumption of raw oysters by the masses continues...

RagnarDanneskjold's picture

History suggests a military mobilization is very good for GDP; war not so much. Japan will break out of its funk and introduce the world to the first robot army.

Anasteus's picture

It's more Tank than Think.

Anyway, I'm a bit surprised that China and Japan got caught in such a mess right now. I would expect them to become natural allies in establishing a new market and currency paradigm instead of this untimely haggling.

Hi Ho Silver's picture

They require distractions for their populace.

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

China's natural ally is Russia, actually.  And by ally, I mean something more similar to a frenemy.  As mentioned elsewhere, crushing the JPY is the key to toppling the existing currency regime.  Japan is easy pickings compared to the other currencies in the regime.  China and Russia are ready right the fuck now.  

Anasteus's picture

Well, you're perhaps right but I'd find it a myopic standpoint anyway. If China plans to bind Yuan to a gold standard then Yen is not a rival, especially now, when the massive Yen easing is underway; sooner or later it will be crushed by itself. I understand that the Bricks is somewhat different from Japan but it's the dollar what's going to be attacked. After all, China and Japan have already bilateral agreement on (some) direct Yuan-denominated trading.

But, yes, politics is politics... I wouldn't wonder if the Rothschilds had their fingers deep in stirring up the conflict.

magpie's picture

It's not an island.

It's Gamera waiting for Bondzilla to show up.

lolmao500's picture

And truth from Pravda... YES PRAVDA... giving more truth in one article than the American MSM in the last decade...

Americans never give up your guns
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Be very wary of drawing conclusions from this: Go is a totally different mindset to Chess. For instance, this could easily be a statement for both parties to be in a position of manneko:- A ten thousand year ko is a kind of ko position where either player can initiate the fight but the player who does is at a disadvantage, since the other player will be the one to take the ko first. One player (or sometimes both) also has the option to make the position into seki, the likely outcome if neither side has the stomach for the ko.

Translated: could be an overture for better relations (if only if something could be done about that whole WWII thing).

A Kami no Itte - or "ear reddening move" is unlikely, if anything, this is probably a yosu-miru. Anyhow, Go is a great game, not that I can claim any skill at it.


For the humourists - a Maynerd is "a game of Go played with such extraordinary sloppiness, and so overwhelmingly riddled with mistakes, that by the end both parties are genuinely embarrassed to call themselves Go players, and often subsequently develop an intense hatred for the game of Go. Maynerds are usually characterized by misreads, overplays, and an overall disregard for common sense and good judgment. With most if not all canonical proverbs thrown to the wayside, the players are free to rely solely on misguided intuition to further their half-baked strategic goals."

Apply to your favourite economist if you need a smile for 2013.

oak's picture

lately, japanese go plyers lost almost every game to korea and chinese players in many international go competitions. that tells japan' mindset.

lolmao500's picture

That's why China has been training for an intense air war lately.

China Trains To Surge

China has begun training its air force squadrons to carry out high intensity operations on airports or air bases with two runways and supporting multiple types of aircraft while doing so. This is a critical capability for “surge” operations, in which aircraft carry out the maximum number of sorties for a day or so. This is the kind of capability that gives Western air forces a big advantage.

When a squadron goes into surge mode it can mean round the clock operations (as F-16s can operate day and night because of their night vision sensors) that can result in individual aircraft flying half a dozen or more sorties.

China has also been making strides in recruiting higher quality recruits to be maintainers and upgrading logistics systems so that the maintainers don’t run short of fuel, spare parts, and other essential supplies. China also has lots of modern aircraft that can surge and carry out the kind of surge efforts Western air forces train for and carry out in wartime. Most Western aircraft can fly three or more sorties per day for two or three days and one or two per day indefinitely, as long as the spare parts and ground crews hold out. Western air forces practice high sortie surge tactics far more than less affluent nations. China now has more money, and they are spending it to move maintainers from several squadrons to a base and have them practice generating a lot of sorties quickly on dual runway airports. That’s how you win wars.

China Warns of Scrambling Fighter Jets over Island Dispute

China says it could scramble fighter jets to protect China’s sovereign rights over a group of disputed islands in the East China Sea also claimed by Japan.

Freddie's picture

I am not sure how Japan takes on China.  Japan has a much smaller and older population.  South Korea "ain't" gonna help Japan.

Element's picture

Isn't there three countries stepping-up to claim these islands as their territory?

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture


Isn't there three countries stepping-up to claim these islands as their territory?

Yes, and two of the three are China (PRC and Taiwan).

earleflorida's picture

indeed... and if taiwan plays the same 'go game' with china, their economy will sink faster than japan's. besides, the fact that the chinese believe taiwan was always theirs. a rebellious child of sorts that the mother[land] tolerates?

as of late, there are more billionaires created in taiwan [eg. publishing/news/ tv. etc.,...] because of the chinese? these guys control the media, politicians, via propaganda and they ain't about to give up there billions for some taiwanese  bureaucrat's blustering  patriotic/nationalism shit!


Ps. keep an eye on central africa where al Qaeda [AQIM] has been making huge progress, eg. *MALI* ,C.A.R., Niger, Chad, **Sudan, and up into Algeria!        ***note the pattern***

Flash point--- maybe? 

Ghordius's picture

yes, but the real unmentioned factor is that it's the 5th Fleet's main manouver area

every year a wonderfully choreographed ballet involving hundreds of warships and planes is performed there

next year they should call it "Ode to Mars and Neptune" - got to check when it's scheduled

earnulf's picture

It may be a game of go, but the stakes are much higher than prestige, they involve human beings.   Of course with China holding 1 in 7 people in the world, they would seem to have a reservoir to tap that few other countries, and definately NOT Japan, can match.

Anyone remember anything in revelations about a dragon and an eagle, or a dragon and a bear?

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture


Anyone remember anything in revelations about a dragon and an eagle, or a dragon and a bear?

There's the part where it mentions a beast with seven asses laying waste to the roadsides of the east.

Ralph Spoilsport's picture

"Necessarily Extended Duration To The Red Army! Regrettable Decease Without Undue Suffering To The Forces of Oppression!"

The mattering thing which is very much something while the worm is in the apple.

akak's picture

Highly making you are now master parangong of throating the deepest wisdomizing with 'american' eternal nature consumptionalization leads to blobbing-up, inability to self-ignite, spread of US non-american 'american' citizenism, and farming the snore and exporting the leek.

Very mattering, very crusty, very 'american' can-kicking.

Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Probably 13:1 / 2 is your closest bet, unless that was rhetorical.

And I saw a beast rising out of the sea, with ten horns and seven heads, with ten diadems on its horns and blasphemous names on its heads. And the beast that I saw was like a leopard; its feet were like a bear's, and its mouth was like a lion's mouth. And to it the dragon gave his power and his throne and great authority.


The irony that this is all about a tiny island in the sea isn't lost though.

Matt's picture

But it isn't just about a couple tiny islands, and it is not just a simple two or three sided conflict. It is about the South China Sea, and the future of East Asia post-Pax Americana.