Tyler Durden's picture

It's the last trading day of the year, nothing has been resolved on the Cliff, the perpetually wrong media has now decided to change its tune and is spin the Wile E. Coyote plunge as a "good thing" (just as we expected), Congress is nowhere, the Senate failed to reach any resolution last night and is resuming the "negotiations" farce at the bright and early hour of 11 am, and yet somehow, in spite of everything, the strong bid under the futures refuses to go away (thank you Kevin Henry). This despite what is becoming clear to even this broken market (InTrade odds of a debt ceiling deal by the end of today are still a substantial 2.3%) that there will likely be no deal until some time in February or March when the debt ceiling extensions expire by which point the only question is how deep the US recession will be. And still everyone will be shocked, shocked, when nothing is done today either. Why? Because the market continues to price in an outcome which demands that it crash for it to be achieved. That so few grasp this is frankly, disturbing. Also, everything else is perfectly enjoyable theatrical noise. And just to keep the excitement factor really high, most rates and FX markets close early today, with rates and FX futures markets close at 1pm New York time while cash bond trading at 2pm.

Not like news matters anymore, but here is what else happened recently, via BBG:

  • Greek October retail sales imploded by 18.1% by volume and 17.1% by revenue, the biggest dump in 2 years and proof that despite Greek hedge fund bondholders being made whole, the Greek nation and economy has never been worse.
  • Merkel said the economic environment will be more difficult in 2013 than this year, and that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis is "far from over," though progress has been made
  • A French court’s rejection of Hollande’s 75% millionaire tax shows the limits on his ability to tap high earners, even as the ruling is unlikely to attract investors and executives back to France
  • BofAML Corporate Master Index OAS narrows to 153bps. $54.9b has priced in December. Markit IG widens 1bps to 98bps; YTD low 83bps. High Yield Master II OAS rises 2bps to 530bps; $25.26b has priced this month. Markit HY narrows 5bps to 510bps, YTD low 445bps
  • $6.6b ABS priced in December
  • EUR/USD falls, trades at $1.3187. Asian, European stocks mixed; U.S. equity-index futures higher. Energy complex lower, precious metals gain.

Oh, and finally today the US finally breached its latest and greatest debt ceiling as reported previously. But just one more hike, and this time the US will get its financial house in order. Promise.

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Pool Shark's picture



Step 1) Sit back and watch Thelma and Louise drive us off the cliff

Step 2) When the time is right; retrieve bullion from bottom of lake

Step 3) Profit!


[2013: The year we make contact... with the bottom of the canyon...]


Muddy1's picture

And the prospects of a bank holiday starting on Wednesday are????????????

S5936's picture

Ah yes ! Got to put the old bank holiday withdrawal on the to do list. Forgot about that , must of been the Smirnoff.

Racer's picture

It is obviously sooo important to them in order  that they have loooots of time for negotiation so they start as early as possible at .... uh, uh,.... what... ....11:00????

and they went home early too? Hmm, us workers don't get to have lie ins like that if something VERY important has to be done.

CPL's picture

Look, the poor lambs have to get up for the crack of noon after giving themselves pay raises to deal with the inflation that does not exist.


Yeah that's the ticket.

Nobody For President's picture

Beat me to it - but you are probably on East Coast time...

Cursive's picture

If we go over the "Fiscal Cliff", I'll wager that a bunch of idiots in NYC will still watch a ball drop at midnight and the sun will rise tomorrow.  Unbelieve to the mainstream media and talking heads, people can live without Big Brother.  Oh, there would be an adjustment to be sure, but we need the easy money cut off and a return to sanity.

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

We went over the fiscal cliff on August 15, 1971. What is staring us in the face right now is the prospect of hitting bottom.

Like the man said, it's not the fall that gets you, it's the sudden stop at the end.

TheSilverJournal's picture

That was supposed to temporary in order to defend the dollar against greedy speculators and keep the benevolent politicians in control of the counterfeiting ponzi. As always, look at what they do, and not what they say.

Vid of Nixon announcing end of Bretton Woods.

iinthesky's picture

The dialectic marches ever forward, problem, reaction given to you by your programmers, solution. This is the reason they made this Super Congress. In order to ratchet up the income tax where noone will be to blame. Its just the fiscal cliff. Wow, the Edomite Luciferian conspiracy truly wants violence and bloodshed. They will squeeze till its unbearable and some MKULTRA manchurian dumb ass will snap and start something that will lead to ruin. Watch for it, and pray.

Nobody For President's picture

Another way to say it Buckaroo, is that I don't mind the laws of gravity, its the minimum sentencing guidelines that are such a bitch.


Zap Powerz's picture

I, like Im sure many of you, have been listening with amusement to the talkings heads on various TV and radio shows about this faux fiscal cliff bullshit.

What strikes me as odd is that there is absolutely no one in the chattering class that asks the following question:

Who is making money from the US debt?

No one is getting at the root cause of the problem.  No one is asking the right questions.  Follow the money. There is a clear (and rather significant) incentive for the USA to be in debt.  Just like there is incentive for your bank to issue you a credit card with that initial low interest rate of 0%.

The reason we have a debt/spending problem is because we can borrow an infinite (they think) amount of money from a private bank to fund stuff we dont need, but want.  Just like your idiot neighbor that charges his Direct TV and big screen TV with the Sunday Package on his credit card.

The elected officials that push us deeper in debt and the bank that encourages greater debt are the enemies of freedom and should be delt with appropriately.


Wjunk's picture

Its not the ups and downs that are a problems, its the jerks along the way.

Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Not so sure - if you don't remember the high-calibre excitement of a live TV cut-to-the-President announcing Bin Ladin's death interrupting everything else,  then you should.

“We can express our feelings regarding the world around us either by poetic or by descriptive means. I prefer to express myself metaphorically. Let me stress: metaphorically, not symbolically. A symbol contains within itself a definite meaning, certain intellectual formula, while metaphor is an image. An image possessing the same distinguishing features as the world it represents. An image — as opposed to a symbol — is indefinite in meaning. One cannot speak of the infinite world by applying tools that are definite and finite. We can analyse the formula that constitutes a symbol, while metaphor is a being-within-itself, it's a monomial. It falls apart at any attempt of touching it.” Andrei Tarkovsky (full version, age restricted)

Or, if it's too early for Soviet era cinema, you could just watch the Doctor Who Christmas Special, and cut to the ending [50 mins >]. Funny thing, last year it was all about 1,000 shining lights rising, now... well, I won't spoil the plot. Let's just say that Clotho works for Aunty to the Establishment on Christmas.


Buckaroo Banzai's picture

We have a clueless populace, informed by a mass media that is biased and incompetent, served by a congress that is corrupt, and led by a president who is a fucking communist.

Yeah, we're pretty much screwed. Help me find the silver lining here.

quadcap's picture

In the long run, we are all dead.

AssFire's picture

a mass media that is biased and incompetent

Buckaroo, that implies they have a small amount of objectivity and not aware what they are doing- when in reality, they are corrupt, lying, corporate conspirators who only appear stupid as to not compromise their plausible deniabliity.

Plausible deniability was coined after the Kennedy administration and has been standard operating procedure for this country's leaders & elites since the Jekyll Island meeting

TheSilverJournal's picture

Assets are extremely mispriced, and economies are completely out of wack due to the world fiat monetary ponzi and if you can not only see the malinvestments, but act to benefit from these imbalances being righted, great fortunes can be made. It will be the greatest and swiftest transfer of wealth ever.

Cursive's picture

@Buckaroo Banzai

Well stated above.  The silver lining is, if you survive the coming tumult, a return of individual liberties and free association.

Muddy1's picture

It's stacked in my safe and under the mattress.

Vooter's picture

The silver lining is that you still have the opportunity to follow your passion--whatever it may be--before you die. All of this shit was happening long before you were born, and it'll be happening long after you're dead. It's called "human existence." Take care of your own, help others when you can, and live your life while you're still drawing a breath--because one day, you will draw your last. As shitty as our situation may be--and believe me, a LOT of people on this planet have it WAY worse than we do--it's the situation we find ourselves in. It's not going away. So as the old saying goes, "When you have lemons..."

Spastica Rex's picture

Wisdom +1

Although I am personally a fairly "passionless" individual.

Zap Powerz's picture

Mr. Banzai,

There is never a silver lining.  There is only the struggle of life.  Our ancestors had to evade saber toothed tigers, they had to survive disease, harsh winters, and famine.  You and I are proof that they succeeded.  Their life fucking sucked compared to ours.

Our struggle is to survive and thrive in our current hostile environment.  We have conquored all other predators, we have defeated famine and most diseases. Our homes are warm in the winter and cool in the summer.

Now we have to deal with the most leathal of all predators: the sociopathic human being.  There are only a few of them, but they have enormous power and influence.  They have weaknesses and we will find them and exploit them and defeat them.

Its not a silver lining, but it is hope.  We must hope and try to be as good at defeating our hostile environment as our noble ancestors were.  They didnt struggle, fight and die to pass on their genes just so we could get to this point and fail.  At least mine didnt.  Im going to fucking win.  I dont know how or even what winning means exactly, but Im not going to fail.

Fight brother.  Fight.

Mongo's picture

Where is Sylvester Stallone when you need him!

Muddy1's picture

Rambo marathon this weekend on AMC channel.

icanhasbailout's picture

BofAML Corporate Master Index


Not even bothering to hide it anymore.

deepsouthdoug's picture

I've always wanted to know - is ol Wile E. Coyote a Democrat or Republican?

Pool Shark's picture



Neither; he's 'Roadkill'


HurricaneSeason's picture

I dont think he'd have a job if he wasn't a goobermint worker, whether he knows that and votes for the democrats is a seperate issue.

lolmao500's picture

Well it is a good thing... in some kind of way... it could be even BETTER if it cut even more... by fixing the foreign policy, the medical industry and wall street... fix that and almost everything will be fixed... not that this will ever happen with the current bunch but eh.

A French court’s rejection of Hollande’s 75% millionaire tax shows the limits on his ability to tap high earners, even as the ruling is unlikely to attract investors and executives back to France

It will be fun to watch France's tax income for 2013...

GCT's picture

LOL the French government is going to rewrite the law to make it more fair (LOL) to impose the same tax based on the courts opinion.  Nothing will change.  They will still impose the tax after the rewrite.  Go to french 24 they have it posted there.

espirit's picture

With the French Oligarchy renouncing citizenship and heading to Belgium or Switzerland in an attempt to flee taxes - can't wait until those respective countries have an "Ah Hah!" moment.

DosZap's picture

It will be fun to watch France's tax income for 2013...

I hope it is a small as they deserve,  frigging frog socialist biatches.

They FIND it unconstitutional AFTER they see if it will fly, only thing  flying is millionaires.(LOL)


westboundnup's picture

Insult to catastrophic injury . . . markets will end today off session lows.

Global Hunter's picture

you just gave me some hopium based fertilizer for my green shoots.

Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

We are all Palestinians now. Got rocks ?

Zosynspiracy's picture

F'k the Palestinians.......this is Amerika........we will fight with molotav cocktails and ammonium nitrate!  We might be a beaten down old dog of a populace.....but don't count us out just good ol' boys will show the world we got one last good fight in us........they will just wait for the up and coming generations who will be defeated with water hoses while tapping incessently into their netherPhones.....

HD's picture

"Because the market continues to price in an outcome which demands that it crash for it to be achieved."


Except in the new uber manipulated, print forever, goal-seeked, happy fun time hopium market - a 5% correction IS a crash.

I would be thrilled beyond words to be wrong.


Global Hunter's picture

is it even allowed any more for stock markets to decline by 5% in any period of time less than one year?

ZeroAvatar's picture

Hussman sez (crash) of 32 to 39% due in near future.

Global Hunter's picture

"A French court’s rejection of Hollande’s 75% millionaire tax shows the limits on his ability to tap high earners"

Fuckin amateur! Just sign an executive order like Obamao does...somebody get Obamao's handlers at the UN on the blower with this Hollande toot suite.

q99x2's picture

With fake money and algos the fraud indexes can go higher.

OldNewfy's picture

Perhaps the alleged leaders could keep us distracted by provoking a noisy (and 'essential' for our security) military adventure somewhere.  Seems that when you've got lots of able-bodied adults out of work, they get to be cannon-fodder in a military conflict, ideally somewhere else.  Wars generally seem to have been used as justification for deficit funding strategies, at least historically.  What bad international actors can be fingered?

HurricaneSeason's picture

Since "wars" dont involve battles anymore, I think Peru would be good. I dont think they have any military and they have that shining path terrorist group and natural resources. It would save on gas to ship all the stuff there instead of the China area.

NaiLib's picture

Happy New Year! Washington Politicians still alive and thriving...Don't worry. They will get paid no matter what. That is one of the main resons why there is no solution. Cliff is certainly better for the US than anything they will come up with.

HD's picture

Paid? Hell, they just got a raise.

Aurora Ex Machina's picture

To cheer you all up, since most of the minnows have left the fiscal pond ~ 10,000 fish on 3 acres; vertical (low-tech) aquaculture. [Video is low information, but the tech is hardly rocket-science. More like bucket + pump from your local DIY store].

Professor Fate's picture

The best possible outcome is to do absolutely nothing about the cliff or debt ceiling.  Let it all happen. Get it over with.  BrIng on FEARLESS FREEP?

"Push the Button, Max"

Fate the Magnificent