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Presenting Birinyi's Parabola

Tyler Durden's picture




 

You have all heard of "Birinyi's Ruler" before (and if you haven't, today for some inexplicable reason Bloomberg decided to once again give exposure to the man who made all technical analysis into an absolute farce). Well, step aside Birinyi Ruler, and make way for Birinyi's Parabola. Why? Because back in January 2011, the pitchy Hungarian fearlessly declared his closing price target for the S&P 500 on September 4th, (not 3th, not 5th) 2013 at 2,854. This is just over 100% from where the S&P will close today. The resulting ramp is no longer a ruler, not even a hockeystick, but quite simply a parabola. As shown below...

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:35 | 3109390 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Birinyi bitchez

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:42 | 3109421 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Plenty of support around 666.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:49 | 3109448 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

The Hungarian Hippo is right....SP going parabolic in a hyperflationary environment....but he didnt mention what the gold chart would be like, probably hyperparabolic!

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:50 | 3109461 ACP
ACP's picture

I personally like chicken birinyi, with yogurt on the side.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 01:50 | 3111628 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

From Jan 2002 to Jan 2004, the Argentinian Merval Stock Index went from ~ 320 to 1,100 during the Argentina peso  crisis.

Birinyi is predicting a USD crisis.

See: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/argentina/stock-market

p.s. use the "update" link and not the arrow in the advert when entering the dates of interest.

 

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:36 | 3109392 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

... you know some people will believe it.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:43 | 3109424 PivotalTrades
PivotalTrades's picture

When the dollar collapses he will be only half way there.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:37 | 3109394 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

sprinkle a few keywords like "hope" and "upside bias" into every MSM headline and that's eminently doable.. it's not like we're talking about discounting fundamentals in the capital markets or anything.. this is strictly Farmville for morons

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:37 | 3109396 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Sounds reasonable to me.

<Moar drugs please.>

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:37 | 3109399 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

It may happen. It would mean really bad news on the reality front, though.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 14:46 | 3109794 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Unlimited + unsterilized.  That's all we need to know.  

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:39 | 3109407 tuttisaluti
tuttisaluti's picture

I thought it was gold and silver

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:43 | 3109412 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

When the stock market is priced in confetti, even the sky is no limit.  Hope floats but confetti can float higher.

Why parabola when you can have a hyperbola?

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:41 | 3109413 knukles
knukles's picture

Sweet!
He's talking about my blood sugar, right?

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 15:38 | 3110079 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

Correction: blood pressure

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:42 | 3109414 wcvarones
wcvarones's picture

You never know; Zimbabwe Ben could go Full Retard by September.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:43 | 3109428 CharliePrince
CharliePrince's picture

it will parabola happen

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:44 | 3109431 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Hope you can believe in.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:43 | 3109432 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

it could happen if SPX changes it's constituents to 500 most shorted stocks from R3000.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:46 | 3109439 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I got some [arable farmland] in the middle of the Nevada desert to sell ya.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:47 | 3109443 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Birinyi's Bow Saw

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:50 | 3109455 10044
10044's picture

All these dumbasses think that weak currency and bond markets are good for stocks, as if 1987 never happened.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:51 | 3109459 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Don't laugh.  It can happen.  They have created so much stinking money.  People don't seem to grasp the concept of 1 billion dollars, much less1 trillion dollars. 

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 13:59 | 3109508 Itch
Itch's picture

Im dying to know who pays this guy to talk this shit(no one can be that bonkers naturally)...i want a cut; I'll go even better, S&P4500 hows that? Now where's my envelope?

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 14:02 | 3109520 Frastric
Frastric's picture

Past Sept. 2013 we will be calling it Birinyi's timewarp...

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 14:05 | 3109537 OhOh
OhOh's picture

Looks like gold has beaten him to the "Parabolic" phase

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 14:05 | 3109539 Silver Garbage Man
Silver Garbage Man's picture

I'm thinking he ment GOLD.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 14:24 | 3109623 DutchR
DutchR's picture

Go long parabolas....

 

*what's that ticker symbol again

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 14:47 | 3109795 Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

This is from the same moron who predicted S&P 1700 earlier this year in March.  Not too good on that one.  Sooner or later though if he keeps making crazy calls, one will happen and the pundits will annoint him as the great stock analyst. 

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 14:57 | 3109892 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

".... who MADE all technical analysis into an absolute farce..."
LOL!

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 14:58 | 3109897 Hal n back
Hal n back's picture

it would be cool if gdp and corp profits expanded to meet these higher prices and do so without being just inflation

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 15:12 | 3109987 Dineroguru
Dineroguru's picture

No he meant to draw a line on the FED's balance sheet....that is what it is!

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 15:15 | 3109995 toms
toms's picture

Birinyi is and always has been an incompetent self promoter...follow his market wisdom to your ruin

 

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 15:40 | 3110070 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

A much more useful chart:

 

Oil Supply shortfall by energy company Total ...

 

Others can be found ... depending on which major oil company (or EIA) you want to pay attention to, they all say the same thing.

 

The amount of crude oil needed to meet demand between now and 2030 (eighteen years) is between 30- and 80 million barrels per day.

 

That's new oil ... needed to make up for depletion and to meet increased demand. Even with 'frakking', Bakken and Irakk ... additional 10 mbpd ... there is a + 20 - 70 million bpd shortfall.

 

It begiins! Allocation by credit rationing is already underway ... in Europe. Coming to a gas station near you.

Mon, 12/31/2012 - 19:18 | 3110924 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

With the destruction of currency, eventually the banks blowing up and government spending forced to decrease because of delining tax revs. how can you  believe in

a long term forecast like yours? What ever you are smoking, I'd like some!

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 06:24 | 3118023 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

to be honest, sourcing other means for fuels like nat-gas & biogas, using thermal & nuclear & even a tad solar can offset many neeeds for oil. HEMP for plastic of course, garbage-to-oil & hemp-to-oil are also possibilities. Looking forward to bigger roll-outs of the Bloombox

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 03:49 | 3111700 dunce
dunce's picture

I was going to comment to the effect of inflation but about at least a dozen people beat me to it. You have made me feel so common. Lincoln observed that God must like common men because he made so many of them.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 07:43 | 3111763 Socratic Dog
Socratic Dog's picture

Good point Lincoln.  He must like fucking idiots too, there's plenty of them.  Also, come to think of it, fat bitches.  Hmm....is god black?

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