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Since 2012 Is 2011, What Comes Next Is Not Pretty...

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Since January we have been pounding the table that 2012 is nothing but a carbon copy of 2011. Whether this is due to the limited imagination of the central planners, or a quota on the number of pages in the market's script, we don't know. What we do know is that since now everyone acknowledges that the two years have been fused into one, we suggest readers take a double dose of Dramamine ahead of what comes next, which can be easily seen courtesy of the following chart from SocGen's Albert Edwards.

 

 

and as Andrew Lapthorne notes:

?Of course this is a particularly silly reporting season period, where on one hand earnings estimates have collapsed, yet on the other the majority of companies are producing positive ?surprises?. Such silliness will only encourage the idea the equity market is increasingly not really fit for purpose?. However there is no denying that earnings optimism is currently very weak, registering a lowly 34% globally and a terrible 27% in the US. Fixating on the forecast growth rate for this year is of course misleading as these can evaporate very quickly, best to look at year-on-year changes in 12-month forward or trailing earnings which are now showing many region profits to be in decline.

 

 

 

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Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:37 | 2649204 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Not pretty indeed.

Confirmed Hindenburg Omen is back! As of yesterday's market action.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:38 | 2649217 tsx500
tsx500's picture

slightly OT but :    SUCK IT BERRNANKE !!!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:44 | 2649256 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Oh Bummah gonna get Jimmey Cartered' ...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:51 | 2649294 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

PLUS:

Greenland ice sheet melted at unprecedented rate during July

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/24/greenland-ice-sheet-th...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:54 | 2649308 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You mean Greenland ice is melting to become once again what it was named for? GREENland? 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:19 | 2649425 jjsilver
jjsilver's picture

Did I hear carbon tax to go along with that un gun grab.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:32 | 2649489 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

"What comes next..."

The IMF will start screaming for more action, central bank jawboning.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:09 | 2649653 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Maybe they'll find some old oil derricks that Leif Erickson abandoned & within 6 months, Denmark will be listed on the roll call of "axis of evil" nations...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 13:39 | 2649996 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Oh, great! The obligatory sockpuppet thread-jacking into 88 posts by FlakSheister on something other than the topic at hand! Sheesh!!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 15:06 | 2650185 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

We are repeating 2011, or I didn't just... Long sync monday morning 12.20 (going flat today (then long) for Q2 announcement postmarket today) Long UVXY Friday morning, sell monday morning & Short UVXY today 8.95 (just sold @ 3) Short RJA 10.02 on friday. Day trading Corn most recent max gainer short 795 long 776. Long C. OIL 88 - doubled up 87.  Short Gold 1608 (long @ 1615).  Shorted Big Dow @ 880 #LATA#PZPZ #EZPZ #GGBRO #HATEHATEHATE #UMAD?

Bringing class and respectable behavior to wall street since March 012'. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5beguc5i0g

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:09 | 2650729 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

Sync down 18%  aftermarket. 5 pm conference call bot dump. 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 13:02 | 2649872 Self Trader
Self Trader's picture

Carbon emission TAX on firing guns is next.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 13:06 | 2649877 Self Trader
Self Trader's picture

More Muppets money for God damn' Sachs.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:31 | 2649475 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

 

2,000 year COOLING trend..  Much warner in Medieval / Roman times..  But facts don't matter only that humans are evil....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2171973/Tree-ring-study-proves-climate-WARMER-Roman-Medieval-times-modern-industrial-age.html

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:33 | 2649495 falak pema
falak pema's picture

false flag name invented by the Vikings to send people towards Greenland and thus secure Iceland for themselves. In fact Iceland was green not like icy Greenland.

That was around 1000 AD when they discovered Vinland, that some say was the first time europeans put foot on AMerican soil. Leif Ericson was that man. 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:47 | 2649813 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

Such outdated history....  see the Minoan, lineal b derived script of Algonquin tribal leaders on New England 1600s land / peace treaties signed with the Pilgrims' English roman glyphs. The Minoan script dates from 2000BC, way before the Vykings rowed up the St. Lawrence River into Lake Ontario and up the Ottawa River, etc and way before lineal b was deciphered as the proto-Greek alphabet.

 

The First Tribes traded away copper from the Lake Superior area. PM has been good biz for millenia!

Yes, you can look it up- America BC by Barry Fell.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 14:41 | 2650217 konputa
konputa's picture

Credit where credit is due, in this case to Bjarni Herjólfsson.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:19 | 2649697 tawse57
tawse57's picture

Greenland was named by the Viking King of Iceland.

He did not want others invading his land so he called Iceland 'Ice Land' to put people off, whilst spreading rumour of the wonderful 'Greenland' over the horizon.

He also told people to buy silver and gold. LOL

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:34 | 2649771 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

he told em  to buy silver and gold so when he raieded them,there was good booty.much like China today.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:12 | 2650599 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

You mean Greenland ice is melting to become once again what it was named for? GREENland?

My bad for assuming a baseline level of education. Learn more:

Wiki:

The name Greenland comes from the early Scandinavian settlers. In the Icelandic sagas, it is said that Norwegian-born Erik the Red was exiled from Iceland for murder. He, along with his extended family and thralls, set out in ships to find a land rumored to lie to the northwest. After settling there, he named the land Grœnland ("Greenland"), supposedly in the hope that the pleasant name would attract settlers.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:13 | 2650602 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/28/arctic-explorer-rebuts-crit...

Arctic Explorer Rebuts ‘Warming Island’ Critique
Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:16 | 2649419 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Greenland ice sheet melted at unprecedented rate during July

 

FALSE, happens in 150yr cycles.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:34 | 2649500 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

Must have been the fault of those EVIL 1880's SUV's

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:12 | 2649667 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I've always maintained that the 'evil' Clovis Indians (& their Escalades) were responsible for turning back the North American polar ice sheets 10,000 years ago...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:55 | 2649836 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

GEORGE CARLIN YOU BITCHEZZZZZZZZZZZ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BB0aFPXr4n4

Sad that a comic tells it like it is.

Fuckin Global Warming and the pissants that think we humans are the cause of it.

Jesus Mary and Joe............

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:36 | 2649510 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

Thanks, Exxon-Mobil.

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:49 | 2649561 Enceladus
Enceladus's picture

Correct ice cores from the Summit area show the last time this happened was 1896.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:03 | 2649619 0z
0z's picture

It's called mass amnesia. Read Immanual Velikovsky

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:43 | 2649801 Chain Gun Smoke
Chain Gun Smoke's picture

Pics or it never happened

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:43 | 2649538 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

This is bullish!  Next real-estate bubble: Greenland.

Buy now: Beach-front, cobalt-blue water, white sands, palm trees.  DonT believe me?  View the image at that link!  For Real!

The Final Frontier for rare earths! (IMHO- Antartica is the Final Frontier)

Black Gold from the Green Land.

Today- 58°, partly cloudy.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:03 | 2649622 agNau
agNau's picture

Long term cycle analysis is a must to any tool box.
Buy a boat!
:o

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:19 | 2649705 dumbfound
dumbfound's picture

IF Global warming is bad how come more people live around the Equator than around the Artic Circles

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:20 | 2649706 dumbfound
dumbfound's picture

IF Global warming is bad how come more people live around the Equator than around the Artic Circles

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:57 | 2649851 way-out-west
way-out-west's picture

Lucky for us it's melting:

Greenland Ice Melt every 150 years is ‘right on time’

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/24/greenland-ice-melt-every-150-years-is-right-on-time/

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 13:01 | 2649868 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

and the industrial world is falling over itself to get at the pristine  lands' mineral deposits that havn't been touch in millenniums ---- an entire continent of unimaginable wealth just waiting to be plundered [harvested]

good for you, mr. nature and your cyclical natural selection-- even the continents follow darwin's thesis ?  

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 13:05 | 2649884 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

Unprecedented my ass. It does this approximately every 150 years, and it's right on schedule. Do some homework.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 13:10 | 2649902 ATM
ATM's picture

Greenland Ice Melt every 150 years is ‘right on time’

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/24/greenland-ice-melt-every-150-years-is-right-on-time/

 

“Ice cores from Summit show that melting events of this type occur about once every 150 years on average. With the last one happening in 1889, this event is right on time,” says Lora Koenig, a Goddard glaciologist and a member of the research team analyzing the satellite data.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:57 | 2649323 max2205
max2205's picture

But history never repeats.....

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:12 | 2649404 alvanorichie
alvanorichie's picture

We are not makers of history. We are made by history.

http://www.apparelnbags.com/bella/index.htm

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:42 | 2649246 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Pretty is in the eye of the beholder....bloodbaths are the orders of the bankster cabal.  To them, this is BEAUtiful.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:34 | 2649770 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Arnold, take the check(s) and put a tiny down payment on a $3 million house...leverage up in the world and get a zero down 50 year loan before all those Aliens grab every available box left!

 

It is now almost a universal mainstream headline that housing has reached a bottom.  Of course little is mentioned about the ridiculously low mortgage rates that have aided in covering up stagnant incomes to accomplish this task.

 

Roughly 30 percent of California home owners are underwater.  This works out to be 1.5+ million households.  Yet California only has about 170,000 homes for sale on the MLS!  You have nearly 10 times the number of underwater homeowners compared to the homes listed on the MLS.

 

California has 12.4 million occupied housing units and roughly 1.7 million households are collecting food stamps (nearly 13 percent of all households).  Median household income for the state is $57,000.  Over 3 million Californians are already drawing Social Security.  So of course, this is simply more reason to celebrate with high home prices.

 

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/expensive-homes-california-home-price...!+Mail

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 13:17 | 2649927 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

California is bad, but there are over 250 real estate submarkets in the USA, and about half of them are showing price appreciation or stability.

About 70% of all USA problem real estate is located in 5 states. Can you guess which ones? 

CA has a track record of booming too much and declines heavily as a result. It's happened before, and will again. Democrats are good at this, check historical RE market in the People's Republic of MA, IL, etc.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:59 | 2649335 ACP
ACP's picture

...and with the drought, new money printing would be slightly more than devastating.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:48 | 2649553 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

When do I get my 'free' $3,000 Barry check?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:47 | 2649554 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

When do I get my 'free' $3,000 Barry check?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:04 | 2649626 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

You only get one.  Even if you ask twice.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 15:13 | 2650361 BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

At this point they should just send every taxpayer a check for $100,000.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 14:43 | 2650226 WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot's picture

You only get one. Even if you ask twice.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 02:05 | 2652186 sherryw
sherryw's picture

In 2009 we all got cheques Downunder  - for almost any reason; for having school age children, for putting in a tax return, on a low income, to help us buy school texts,... my, some folks got $5-6,000. It was a good Christmas that year and lots of flat screens got sold. Businesses got 50% tax deduction upfront for buying a car, immediate 100% write off for office equipment purchase etc. It's one of the reasons Oz didn't implode along with the rest of the western world. Now of course, the bill is due!!!!!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:37 | 2649205 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

DEc 21st... Yikes ,...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 13:07 | 2649890 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

Y2K...OMG!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:37 | 2649210 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

2012 is 2011 is 1929 what comes next isn't pretty.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:57 | 2649322 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

That's what I'm thinking too.  With the QE hopiness faded, each additional jolt of printing will only stair-step us downward until everyone gives up on stocks, which will mark the bottom somewhere sub 700 /es a few years later.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:38 | 2649214 mick68
mick68's picture

There will be one difference between 2011 and 2012:

We're out of bullets and further in debt, so the comeback won't happen and the fall will be much further.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:48 | 2649273 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

We're gonna need a bigger 'Hilsenrath'...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:48 | 2649275 Saro
Saro's picture

We're out of bullets

Hey, speak for yourself!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:59 | 2649339 DrSandman
DrSandman's picture

You don't seriously think that the US Federal Government did anything to end the depression, do you?  Amity Shlaes crushed that ill-formed thought.  Plus that whole WWII thing killed off the "excess" unemployed.  

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:31 | 2649487 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I don't trust what anyone thinks who is on the CFR...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:33 | 2649496 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

Milton Berle ended the Great Depression in 1946.

 

Network television and TV advertising stimulated consumer demand, previously-shunned finance provided the credit.

 

What FDR did was save both branch banking across the country and high-finance on Wall Street. Securities' reforms were good for the stock- and bond markets: they chased away the crooks and swindlers. After the war, it became safe for ordinary citizens to buy stock (which they did in large amounts). Eliminating specie and the gold clause in contracts made credit safe for retail consumers -- and the businesses that catered to them.

 

Similar constraints exist on the markets now as existed in 1929. Finance is rife with crooks and swindlers. Contracts offer fiat (keypad) loans which must be repaid with circulating money. What's missing is today's FDR.

 

"Hello! Anybody home?"

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:01 | 2649610 OneTinSoldier66
OneTinSoldier66's picture

"Eliminating specie and the gold clause in contracts made credit safe for retail consumers -- and the businesses that catered to them."

 

Just curious, how so? Who deemed it as unsafe to make contracts and loans in gold? Would it have been those(in government) that owed specie and gold that they couldn't make payment on?

 

1) FDR outlawing Gold in 1933 - A default on the American people

 

2) Nixon closing the Gold window in 1971 - A default on the people

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:03 | 2649358 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

2012 is much worse than 2011.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:10 | 2649396 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Could be.

The major difference I'm noticing is that interbank liquidity at this point in 2012 is much greater than it was in 2011-- which SHOULD provide a cushion and reduce volatility.

The only problem with that... is WHY are they building interbank liquidity so far ahead of the fact.

The stuff just doesn't seem to add up.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:13 | 2649408 semperfi
semperfi's picture

somebody's gotta go back and get a shitload of dimes !

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:26 | 2649464 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

Hey girl!

 

Your nephew is causing trouble. Again.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:05 | 2649630 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

And all this time I thought Semper Fi was your BROTHER!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:26 | 2649734 Shitters_Full
Shitters_Full's picture

What'll that asshole think of next?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:45 | 2649215 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

So... check back in November? (IOW ~ is the price to build 'Janjuah's Bridge' from Jackson Hole to the elections $1T)?...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:39 | 2649216 Cursive
Cursive's picture

The big difference is that the bounces from here will be a lower high until we reach the bottom years from now.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:38 | 2649222 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

tick.....tick.......tick.......

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:02 | 2649356 Metalredneck
Metalredneck's picture

BOOM!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:38 | 2649223 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:39 | 2649227 tbone654
tbone654's picture

and remember...  The medicine becomes the poison...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:39 | 2649230 zilverreiger
zilverreiger's picture

crap, what will this mean for paper metals?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:51 | 2649292 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Hint: what happened in 2011?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:40 | 2649234 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

Not sure how/why Albert Edwards is still with Soc Gen...He could make more money and be more appreciated sending in guest columns to ZH...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:41 | 2649243 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

What is different now is that Treasury yields are much lower.  Desperate to get returns that are needed to support pensions and retirement programs, there is no choice but to invest in the market.  

This desperation for yield will support the markets.  This will work for a while,

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:45 | 2649259 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Desperate to get returns that are needed to support pensions and retirement programs...

 

Ummm...couldn't they just raise interest rates. Cuz nuttin else is working.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:58 | 2649324 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

The Fed increases rates and the economy collapses instantly. US debt service costs would skyrocket and concerns about US deficits would damage the dollar.  There is no choice now but to keep interest rates low.

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:57 | 2649326 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Any increase in interest rates will implode the US Government over night., and take half the State governments with it. Oh and probably 1 in 5 US cities would become insolvent.

That gives you an idea of how much debt they are having to service. They are already dead, really. It's over.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:03 | 2649359 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

ZIRP, Its a national security thang

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:25 | 2649458 Milestones
Milestones's picture

Bingo! We have a winner!          Milestones

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:30 | 2649753 OldE_Ant
OldE_Ant's picture

<sarc>

Hell forget ZIRP and bring on NIRP.  This assures debt destruction.  if the swiss can do it so can we.  Come on Ben buy more bonds and bring in NIRP so the US Debt can shrink via the magic of negative interest rates.

Higher interest rates ruins the whole borrow now and pay back less later mentality and crushes anyone laden with debt.   I mean what is better than agree to get more now for the less we pay back later. (forget about the potential fact the fiat it's paid back with is declining against any material inflation.  One doesn't need to inflate the currency to assure the pay less later for more now concept with NIRP). Ah but if you have to crush every saver in Amerika and the world - those people are losers anyway and deserve it.  Everyone knows US bonds are the investment of choice and since any good retiree has a portion of their portfolio in USTs and other bonds they are DOING FANTASTICALLY WELL.

</sarc>

Here is a question.  Once bond rates go negative isn't this a sure fire recipe for deflation?  I mean when monetary policy is so easy that rates of return on capital sent to the ultimate capital eater (govt) are negative doesn't this mean there is no longer any way to avoid deflation/depression?  

This doesn't even account for any possible fiat manipulation so that 1 fiat dollar paid back later also represents 1/2 the buying power against when it was borrowed.   This fiat manipulation is supposed to create inflation in fiat terms but all it has done is consume real economic wealth/production/consumption potential as well again leading to deflationary forces.

My conclusion here is that the FED needs to force interest rates to stop going lower.  The farther down they go the more powerful the deflationary forces will be.  The FED should be trying to force rates to be stable with an ever so slight bias to the upside at this point.  In the loosest sense we are collectively eating up our collective societal savings of generations in less than a single generation.  The depressive/deflationary forces are now so huge they may be completely unavoidable.  No amount of FED or Govt spending will be able to reverse them because THESE ARE THE PRECISE ACTIONS CREATING THE PROBLEM.

In more normal economic times dropping interest rates would have a growth effect, but at some point the growth hormone no longer works and becomes a poison, toxic to the patient.   In the most basic sense where we are now economically is entirely out of the normal financial FED playbook, but unfortunately they don't recognize it.

While I agree making rates rise would crush debtors, perhaps fixed but slightly rising rates are EXACTLY the medicine needed at this point to turn things around.   I would also agree that what else needs to be done is to completely go back to previous law regarding financial institutions, bring back Glass-Steagal, put the financial wizards that got us this mess on trial, and start actually enforcing already existing laws.  People have lost all sense of trust in the financial markets.  This won't come back quickly or easily and certianly only with actions NOT lipservice words.   As to the FED, and all public institutions, hell govt has tons of cameras and recorders pointed as us, I suggest they put some cameras, and recorders on themselves in their private offices, on their cell phones, etc.   Put simply you want to be a public official, then your activities become public affairs.  Ah but perhaps I go too far.  God forbid any powerful elected or appointed public official ever be recorded in anyway.

End of Line

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 13:04 | 2649878 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

Pension funds need to begin taking delivery of $US Dollars. This will be a better strategy than watching their treasury/bond portfolio get creamed. Or do as Texas did and take delivery on a pallet of gold.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:42 | 2649244 Piranha
Piranha's picture

you can always print more money and have an even bigger disaster later :)

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:49 | 2649281 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Yes, but you have to "fleece" in between ;)

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:42 | 2649249 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Looks like the Olympic high dive competion is now entering the stock market.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 13:51 | 2650022 Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

Yes, but somebody stole all liquid in pool, so they will be jumping in empty one.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:43 | 2649254 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

A couple of differences - the debt is greater now than it was a year ago, and eurobanks are embarking on the road to folding.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:50 | 2649286 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

and China is weaker, 4 warships are in the MiddleEast, election uncertainty and the fiscal cliff fight coming to every TV screen every hour right after the Olympics...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:41 | 2649528 centerline
centerline's picture

+1

keep going...  your on a roll.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:47 | 2649260 john_connor
john_connor's picture

Lowering IOER won't help either, Bernank.  Banks have already decided they rather gamble on opaque derivatives than lend into the real economy.

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:48 | 2649272 youngman
youngman's picture

Its not rhyming.....

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:49 | 2649276 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

You mean the central planning of the housing and mortgage markets haven't worked? Shocked! Shocked I tell you!

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/07/25/here-come-the-fed-home-sales-drop-more-than-expected-mortgage-purchase-applications-drop-too/

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:50 | 2649288 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Ya know the Olympics are a great diversion and there is a lot of positive feedback for our young athletes, but Great Britain is in a terrible recession, printing pounds and all this hype is costing them millions of pounds they do not have. It is all a cover for the real world and the devastation that will engulf this planet. But for two weeks, nice TV I guess. Everyone is smiling and the WX. is nice in London.

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:15 | 2649415 reload
reload's picture

You are quite correct: But by October I expect grim reality to be staring the UK in the face, so sternly, that even the blindest take note. Could be quite an Autumn for the Old Etonians running the show, I do not expect great things from them!

My preparatons - financial and practical have taken on a new level of urgency in the last month or so.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:54 | 2649307 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Guys, those charts don't look the same at all. It's mostly random noise anyway, until about this time last year.

But you can see whatever you want to see. Don't mind me.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 13:39 | 2649991 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Plot the 50 day MA's. Almost identical.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:54 | 2649309 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Hilsenrath's planted story didn't last as long as Viagra's 4 hour warning.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:55 | 2649313 BandGap
BandGap's picture

I wish I had the raw numbers, I could get a correlation coefficient for the year to year rather quickly. Eyeballing this tells me it is well above 90%, but that's a guess. Go to a second order function and this might be even tighter. When you have this type of correlation you don't even have to guess if it is a man made manipulation. The data screams this.

I think 2010 was in lockstep with these charts as well, no?

 

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:58 | 2649330 ina gadda da vida
ina gadda da vida's picture
“Albert has been bearish on everything for a long time. So if you are telling me he is bearish on China and bullish on everything else that would be different. But no, he is bearish on everything, including you, me and Mother Teresa.”

 

Jim rogers

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 13:01 | 2649866 Bertie Bear
Bertie Bear's picture

I know for a fact he is very bullish on Mother Teresa

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 10:58 | 2649334 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

What's Goldman got to say?  If all else fails do the opposite of that.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:01 | 2649348 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Nothing a little printing won't fix. Ben needs to go for the mother of all prints, say 5 trillion. It's better to burn out than fade away. Come on Ben do it!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:36 | 2649501 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

"The Fed chairman has spoken in the past about the importance of the economy achieving what he calls "escape velocity"—growth that is fast enough to give the economy forward, self-reinforcing momentum."

 

These people are just making it up as they go aren't they?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:51 | 2649568 centerline
centerline's picture

Conjures up an image of a rocket exploding on the pad.  Noteworthy is that unless the rocket works as intended, the fuel is nothing more than an explosive.  Also, I would wager the function of a rocket is founded in pure science which is more predictable than economics.

Unless of course the rocket really is a bomb that is just made to look like a rocket to make folks think we might be going somewhere.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:06 | 2649378 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

If 2012 is repeat of 2011 can I add a year to my lifespan - kinda' like getting a refund?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:12 | 2649403 Davalicious
Davalicious's picture

The Israeli central bank has been investing big money in US stocks. The Jews in the US administration won't let the home team take a beating. Once you see the Israeli central bank close their position the market will be about to tank.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:12 | 2649406 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

That "plunge" in the S&P of around  <10% is nothing, the DAX dropped a f*** of a lot lower last August - took it in the balls in fact for a 32% drop. Sorta went into free fall. Evidently no PPT in Krautland yet. Although at least 50% of trades are HFT algos. Large caps went up and down like a honeymoon prick, +4% one day -5% the next. But there could be another opportunity time to pick up some SEMENS, BASF and "SAP" this time.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:14 | 2649412 Silver Surfer 1985
Silver Surfer 1985's picture

Here is the entertaining Bloomberg video of Stephen Roach. Great stuff imo! Hope Tyler(s) posts it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/stephen-roach-on-fed-stimulus-measures-economy-pnzb~IYmSjGsnHWTYHGBeQ.html

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:01 | 2649611 Escapeclaws
Escapeclaws's picture

Interesting that QE3 will involve, surprise! surprise!, giving money to the big banks (so they will lend on the purchase of a bridge over the East River, putatively). Kind of similar to the ECB's rescue plans in Europe: Spain gets €100 billion to "recapitalize" its banks. Greece gets funds to pay off its loans to the big banks in Germany and France.  Kind of reminds me of those big rainstorms you see in the Southwest where the rain makes it about halfway down to the ground and then just disappears.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:22 | 2649443 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Weeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:30 | 2649480 CVfriendship
CVfriendship's picture

Outlook 3Q12: Christmas in July Santa Clause Rally until Santa REALLY Comes.  By Goldman Sachs

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:34 | 2649504 stant
stant's picture

cant twist the hidenburg,its a rigid airship. takes fire

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:47 | 2649552 marz929
marz929's picture

WHERE IS JON CORZINE?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:27 | 2649736 HD
HD's picture

Vaporized.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 13:06 | 2649887 toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Oh don't worry, he will be perp walked in front of the cameras in chains and an orange jumpsuit along with Obama, Brenanke, and Geithner when the MASS ARRESTS take place. http://tinyurl.com/cd5cyjo/

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 14:02 | 2650061 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Dream on.

I think Drake will turn out to be a Quisling, not a paul Revere.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:49 | 2649559 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

So if its a carbon copy of 2011, that means we are safe from complete financial collapse? Wow, i was kind of worried until now.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 11:56 | 2649592 fuu
fuu's picture

SVU getting taken behind the woodshed again today.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:07 | 2649643 midtowng
midtowng's picture

I don't think its exactly the same this year simply because of what is going on it Europe. I don't think they can kick the can any further. They've run out of road.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:09 | 2649649 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

Quint, I think we need a bigger boat!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:19 | 2649701 ATG
ATG's picture

With much respect for Albert Ewards, "past is not necessarily prologue"...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:40 | 2649789 ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

The stock, commodity and currency exchanges have been reduced to gambling dens whereby the more powerful traders with deep pockets move the markets to maximize their own profits at the expense of the remaining not so powerful players. The big boys have enormous money power to move the markets in the direction which results in maximum profits for themselves­­. They effectivel­­y use the media to lure the other players in the market to a position where they would incur maximum loss.

The markets turn downwards only when the banksters have eliminated all the short positions and only they themselves have positioned themselves to profit when the market falls

OR

When an unexpected world event catches the banksters with their pants down and the softwares they use to rig the markets go berserk beyond their control.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35345.html

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:42 | 2649794 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

"They effectivel­­y use the media to lure the other players" oh now i get it.. is that why becky quick was bent over in the dog position this morning?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:45 | 2649808 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

http://www.chicagotribune.com/

and heres another funny tidbit. As if its not any more obvious the desperate MSM isnt just an outsourced PR firm. Check out we see Cat profits up. and just a story on the Iphone 5.. no mention of profits or lack there of. Why anyone would read this junk is beyond me.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:48 | 2649814 pismo10
pismo10's picture

Too obvious. What is obvious is obviously wrong...buy

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 12:55 | 2649840 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

i short covered yesterday

my spx 1370 avg SHORT PRICE (from last week) @ 1332..it dropped to 1329...closed @ 1338...NOW @ 1336 = yawn !!!

gimme:

1) 1315-1320 = go long til 1360   OR

2) gimme 1360 = SHORT and RIDE til 1100....then cover shorts and go long b4 QE3 in late aug/early sept. = in the meantime yawn !!!!!

yesterday i also covered my EUR shorts avg price 1.265 @ 1.2058 posted this in real time...kept my 1.315 avg short EUR positions....will wait for 1.22+ to reshort and RIDE to 1.10......EUR now @ 1.213...gimme 1.225+ = me short !!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 14:04 | 2650065 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You forgot to tell me why I should care about your trades.  Beware the steamroller bearing down on you.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 13:49 | 2650013 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

I've been short via TZA, SPXU, FAZ since April.  Done good.  I am thinking about going to cash today and wait for the QE3 pop.  When it comes it will be the greatest shorting opportunity of a lifetime.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 13:58 | 2650044 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

1) your better off shorting with futures

2) i would think that they (odummer's campaign) has a few working brain cells...IF they announce QE3 next week, yes 10% pop = SHORT !!!)

makes more sense to wait til early sept/late aug to announce QE3 when spx @ 1100 and then ride it to around election time to around 1250 = SHORT

either way we are gonna break the march 2009 lows of 666 on spx.

i'm in cash waiting for a pop to 1360 without QE3 or a QE3 pop. = then SHORT.

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