2012 - 2013 Corporate Margin Bridge In One Word: "Magic"

Tyler Durden's picture

At the end of January we first discussed the rolling over of corporate margins and sure enough the consensus for 2012 margin compression has turned our way with only 42% of the S&P 1500 now expected to increase net margins YoY. What is simply 'incredible', in the words of Morgan Stanley, is the jump from 2012 to 2013 expectations of net margins as this chart so well indicates. In 2013, 89% of firms are expected to miraculously rediscover their pricing power and increase net margins. Our word for this is 'magic'.


Perhaps we need an Olympic Ice Hockey commentator to take over the programming on CNBC? Do you believe in miracles?


Chart: Morgan Stanley

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barliman's picture



My word for this is horseshit.


Future Tense's picture

60 Minutes ran a segment last night discussing the "only" thing that may impair this amazing US recovery: the European debt crisis. Based on the graph above, it looks like gravity/reality may impair the recovery as well. 60 minutes clip link below is definitely worth the watch:


CPL's picture

This next round will have to amount in the tens of trillions. The next after that 100's of trillions.


lemonobrien's picture

they ain't gonna QE, they gonna bring on financial repression; aka, capital controls.

catacl1sm's picture

They'd need a war or something for that. Oh wait, nevermind. Presidential decree is good enough too. And fuck Congress. They 'do nothing' anyway.

Koffieshop's picture

Capital controls will increase the need for more QE.
If the price of goods have upper limits you are going to see empty store shelves.
This means that taxable (non-black market) economic activity will crater.
This means the budget hole will become even bigger.
This means Helicopter Ben will have to buy more TBills.

You can have price controls on specific products but not on everything. This is unless you live in a country where the state controls manufacturing and distribution (China, USSR). The only way for price controls to work is to have an authoritarian regime in a country that PRODUCES ITS OWN SHIT.

lemonobrien's picture

capital controls as in controlling your capital into treasuries.

barliman's picture


Not wanting to be argumentative ...

... but you misspelled the word. It should be ...



Ivanovich's picture

Would have been more convincing had you typed "Fatt finger".

ShankyS's picture

Horse hockeystick! Notice how the move to 89% will complete the form of a perfect hockeystick - ironic? 


TD - you need a cut and paste hockestick overlay now. It would make it so easy for the sheeple to understand.  

Pairadimes's picture

My word for this is 'inflation'.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

You guys are flailing and being indirect and talking your book.

My word for this is dismissal.  You only get margin spikes like this by firing people.

Stoploss's picture


UP Forester's picture

I vote for Don Cherry.

Between him and Bidermann, CNBS would be the fashion draw....

Because everyone knows the comedy station bit can't last.

tamboo's picture

i vote for the other don cherry, he has way better chops.


Don Cherry & Herbie Hancock - Bemsha Swing (Live)
junkyardjack's picture

In one word I'd call it: BTFD.  Its widely understood in all languages

PalladiumJockey's picture

They can just make numbers up.

francis_sawyer's picture

This is the only chart that Birinyi reads when he uses his crayon & ruler (except on his chart the dotted lines part is solid)...

mayhem_korner's picture



PJ...you inadvertently left the word "can" in your post.  :D

SheepDog-One's picture

My word for all this is 'bullshit'.

Belarusian Bull's picture

Inside the loony bin, everything is possible.

Dr. Engali's picture

The only margin expansion that will be happening in 2013 is that of the military industrial complex as we expand our wars into Iran.

UP Forester's picture

If they've predicted even $1 higher margin in 2013, I'm surprised more didn't.

After all, when a dollar is only worth 25 cents a year after the prediction, and everything costs 4x more, with 2% wage increase, everybody will buy more shit.  After all, they can afford it.

SheepDog-One's picture

Must....regain.....magical DOW 13,000....by close....must....pump.......harder...

mayhem_korner's picture



Quietly, Au has outgained the Dow by 1.5% today, so far (Dow down ~ 0.7%, Au up ~0.8%).  These days happen from time to time with little fanfare...and yet they go a long way to explaining the year-end deltas.

CPL's picture

Dont sweat it. Look at volume. Anemic. Awful. In a couple more months, zero.


What does a pension plan do if no one is catching that "great" stock action.  They collapse same second people understand equities aren't cash or remotely even close to a replacement.  That implodes horribly.  Bond market goes into full scale pound sell button mode.


Bottoms out at S&P 97...then government paychecks start bouncing.  All of them.  Including all those IOU's called dollars.  Chain reactions now though, could be anything right now.  Iran, Bee's, Diesel, butterfly farts in asia and an earth quake happens in Detriot.  Anything. 



mayhem_korner's picture

Look at volume. Anemic. Awful. In a couple more months, zero.


Not zero...but just enough for the algo-masters to conform the market movements precisely to the narrative.

CPL's picture

Two things that need to happen there. Print job of trillions of dollars...easily done...interest rate hike...won't happen in a million years.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

No. No. and No.

You are analyzing.  That's not what 2011 taught you.  You were taught that governments will do anything to keep the wheels turning.  There will be NO bond market collapse.  If there is a seller, he will be murdered.  Literally.

Anything means Anything.  There is no way in hell that they will let their ponzi fall because some action is against an arbitrary law.  If they must break the law, they will break the law.  If a court tries to prosecute, they will defund the court.

Nothing within the control of governments, legal act or not legal act, will be allowed to take the system down.  Learn the lessons.  Greece gutted bond holders.  GM gutted bond holders.  Dominique Strauss Kahn was jailed until he resigned, and then released.

The law and your analysis based on it is not relevant.  Only things governments cannot control will take it down.  Like the physics of oil.

CPL's picture

Very true.  Gotta fix my script it appears.  #PeakDiesel and #PeakSweetLightCrude is the only real concern as is #PeakCoal.

Everybodys All American's picture

No problem they just will keep widening the gap ... and I would not bet against the PPT in doing just that. There is absolutely no one trading this market so the manipulation can be accomplished quite easily.

Boilermaker's picture

I love the absolutely obvious mechancial grind up also.  Just in a relentless linear fashion.  Or, better stated, as fucking blatantly artificial as possible.

mayhem_korner's picture



Isn't it also true that something like 93% of people think they are better-than-average drivers?

Boilermaker's picture

60% of the time, it works every time.

css1971's picture

Vanity defines humanity. We are all the center of the universe.

JPM Hater001's picture

Yeah...that's my fault...I drag the number down...93% of all drivers are better than me.

buzzsaw99's picture

The margin you refer to is not the margin which matters. There is no market, there is only the bernank.

I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

Kinda looks like Al Gore's Global Warming graph

mayhem_korner's picture



I was thinking more like Al's actual v. his expected "performance" on massage nite...

Boilermaker's picture

Is thie were we all act like underlying factors, fundamentals, and normal valuation measurables matter?

Meanwhile, Ben is slamming fuckloads of money into the market to fully reverse today's opening loss?

I love this shit.  Can we talk PE ratios next?

JPM Hater001's picture

I check Websters and the MLS and I believe the correct metaphor would be "slamming massive fuckloads".

Yen Cross's picture

 The ' Douche Bags " at Goldmans and their (XLF) brethren will lower guidance, and make everything OK!  Look at the melt-up happening as I post!

slewie the pi-rat's picture

welcome back from holy week, Y/C!

{holy week = birthdayParty, BiCheZ!}

i wuz "hoping" we hadn't lost you to a midlife crisis

tell us about her?

Yen Cross's picture

 Thanks Slewie. I read your post's last night. Nice work , I must say!  I forgot how to " shrinkey-dink letters". A little help would be appreciated? It's written down somewhere. I suspect it's when Sacrilege did that update on ( green /red  arrow policy), last spring.

  Those { Bankrupt Europeans sure know how to party}! Been on Holiday since last Thursday!  ( DENIAL)...

 Midlife Crisis, Yea I'm F..king the Maid!  Wink Wink. I hope you and your family are well. I noticed Tyler open a chat "area".

  That is a nice addition to Z/H. I'll( watch), see how it works out.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

the slewies are all fine, wherever they are, we can hope.  thxz

egypt again, huh?

imo, our resident douchebag banksters have still got everything "screwed down tight";  tyler predicted the "india" bid in gold, yest:  +$13.+; plat + $13.; silver -$0.17 <shrugZ>

europe will re-open tomorrow;  stay tooned2C if they can continue to forestall the rush to the exits by QE ri-fin's...

for those of you long prepH, since only 80% of "accountableBullshit" is underwater at this point, i don't see a problem.  just push the buttons and print

really, why tf not, at this point?  as long as 8BilPeople agree that these moronic colored coupons are worth 10nth the papier&cotton and rfd's, what is the problem?  L0L!!!

{try experimenting w/ the X sub&super-script

so, there was more than one?  we have time...

Yen Cross's picture

 You forgot J&J  and Treasuries.

                                                Helicoptors and ass wipes!  nice post by the way!