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2012 Gold Estimates Lowered By Banks - But Remain Bullish

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From GoldCore

2012 Gold Estimates Lowered By Banks - But Remain Bullish

Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,657.00, GBP 1,077.09, and EUR 1,290.80 per ounce.

Yesterday's AM fix was USD 1,662.00, GBP 1,080.34, and EUR 1,299.76 per ounce.


Cross Currency Table – Bloomberg 

Spot gold has swung between a low of $1,645/oz and a high of $1,660/oz in Asian and early European trading after rising another 1.25% yesterday. Gold spiked above €1,300/oz on continuing concerns about the Eurozone and the euro.

The yellow metal climbed to $1,667.90 yesterday its highest since December 13th and an increase of 6.7% in 2012, as the dollar fell. The dollar's weakness was attributed to poor US production and homebuilder data combined with Greece announcing it is nearing a deal on its debt. Prime Minister, Lucas Papademos is resuming private talks with the bondholders today.

Portugal will test investor appetite as it launches its debt auction today. Concerns about financial stability in Hungary and contagion risk in the Eurozone continue.

India raised its tax on imports of gold bars and coins (2%) and silver (6%) yesterday. This is a 90% increase on gold and double the previous amount charged on silver. Traders and analysts do not think that the increase will have an effect on the strong demand from Indian consumers. The increase in duty is not that large in rupee terms given the strong rise of gold in rupees in recent years. 

Current weakness in the market provides another buying opportunity and is a good time to accumulate a position for the long term.


Gold Spot (Euros) €/oz  - Daily 1/18/11-1/18/12 - Bloomberg

The world's biggest primary silver miner, Fresnillo, had flat silver production in 2011. Output is only expected to remain stable in 2012. 

African Barrick Gold said on Wednesday fourth quarter gold production fell 11% and missed its annual production targets.

Despite price rises seen in 2011, gold and silver mining is remaining static contrary to claims by gold bears that higher prices would lead to increased production and therefore increased supply.

Geological constraints may be impacting mining companies ability to increase production of the precious metals.

Standard Bank has said it lowered its average 2012 gold price forecast by 6 percent to $1,780 an ounce, but continues to expect prices of the precious metal to touch new highs in the latter half of this year.   

"We maintain that gold will reach new highs this year but, given our dollar view, we believe that these highs will be reached only in the second half of 2012," the analyst said in a note. Standard Bank expects the U.S. dollar to gain strength, especially against the euro, over the next quarter. 

A few other banks have recently lowered price forecasts for gold, including ANZ and Credit Suisse – however the majority remain bullish on gold’s outlook for 2012.

For breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us on Twitter.

NEWS
(Bloomberg)
Gold Climbs for Third Day as Dollar Weakens on Optimism Over Economic Data

(Reuters)
Gold off one-month high; euro zone eyed

(Financial Times)
Central banks increase gold lending

(International Business Times)
Turkey Adds 63 Tonnes of Gold Due to Acceptance of Metal as Reserve Requirement from Banks

(Economic Times)
Government changes import duty on gold to 2% of value, silver to 6%

COMMENTARY
(ZeroHedge)
World Bank Cuts Economic Outlook, Says Europe Is In Recession, Warns Developing Economies To "Prepare For The Worst"

(KingWorldNews)
Von Greyerz - Silver Shortages & Gold to Accelerate Higher

(FoxNews)
Ron Paul gives new life to an old issue: Gold Standard

(The Underground Investor)
Gold & Silver Banker-Cartel Prolonged Price Suppression Has Set the Foundation for an Explosive Move Higher in 2012

(The Market Ticker)
MF Global: There Is NEVER Only One....

(The Telegraph)
Hungary faces ruin as EU loses patience

 

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Wed, 01/18/2012 - 09:59 | 2074004 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Is that the "rehypothecated" or "unrehypothecated" gold?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:09 | 2074026 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

It's a trick......stand back from the gold.

 

We are in charge of your hypothicated gold.

 

 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:19 | 2074059 bernorange
bernorange's picture

Does lowered expectations mean the sale is just about over?  On a side note, it looks like Sprott is going to start buying silver again

www.pmbug.com

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:58 | 2074190 chubbar
chubbar's picture

What gold price was standard bank calling for in 2005 or 2006 or 2009 for that matter? My guess is that their guess is about as reliable an indicator as throwing chicken bones. Unless they have been giving accurate forecasts for the past 10 years with regard to gold prices, I don't care about them or their opinion. It's akin to paying attention to where an analyst thinks home prices are going when he never saw or called the housing crash. They are already irrelevant but are pretending their forecasts should relied upon.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 11:38 | 2074305 trav7777
trav7777's picture

The POG in EUR terms has held up very well.  Peak to trough seems to have been in the 10-15% range and it looks like a double bottom.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:46 | 2075479 Deo vindice
Deo vindice's picture

Make life easy.

Ignore the banks. Buy bullion (gold and silver). Sequester it away. Go on with life.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:18 | 2075050 Chaffinch
Chaffinch's picture

If the banksters are lowering their expectations I'm raising my expectations. I'm more comfortable when they are trying to talk it down than when they (weirdly) come out with strong bullish forecasts.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 12:48 | 2074615 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

the ETFs staying out of gold for the moment, dont want to be caught with their comingling pants down if there's another blowup

 

Buy miners... ???  current ABG share 465p price is trading at a 15% discount to the mid october price where gold was $1650 (mid october gold prices).  Discount 11-12% of that because of its output fall, still leave about 4% discount people attributing to higher costs because of the output squeeze (lack of continuous power)

The SP is WELL below its 50 DMA and even further below its 200 DMA. 

And the director delaings for the last year have been... buy buy buy

And everyone's bullish about gold.

Guess what ibought today when the price of ABG dropped to below 450. 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:00 | 2074008 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Paper games.  Pay no attention.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:14 | 2074029 Ag Tex
Ag Tex's picture

Sounds like a shaking of the tree for any low hanging, loosely held fruit.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:50 | 2074163 duo
duo's picture

In US, we don't have to nationalize the mines, just have the MSHA shut them down (HL anyone)?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 12:16 | 2074469 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

A good buying opportunity.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 12:41 | 2074579 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

A Lunatic

A good buying opportunity.
Buy Low! Sell NEVER!! or High.. to buy more when the FED buys the Price Down, Again.. and Again and Again and Again! or wash, lather, rinse, repeat.. until you have a mountain of metal! YAY!! if you have income you are tyring to protect.. just buy and hold.. fuck the rest of the paper work.. find a good off-shore bank.. Bahamas or other.. you will find an alive and well gold and silver off-shore trading that is nothing short of thriving!
Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:00 | 2074009 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Despite price rises seen in 2011, gold and silver mining is remaining static contrary to claims by gold bears that higher prices would lead to increased production and therefore increased supply.

Geological constraints may be impacting mining companies ability to increase production of the precious metals.

Lest we not forget all of the manipulated...er...prudent margin hikes on Au and Ag in the past 15 months.  This smells like another CB hoarding-by-misdirection scheme.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:03 | 2074010 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

They love Gold, dont let them fool you/me/us.

I dont care what the illuminati control mass media reports and they're lies...

The bottom line: is if you own gold - you rule the world...

http://www.usdebtclock.org/gold-demand-by-country.html

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:01 | 2074013 Haole
Haole's picture

Whatever, bitchez.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:03 | 2074017 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

The Baltic Dry Index is heading down. Cheaper freight rates make growth possible.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:09 | 2074038 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Wrong, unless they are using sailboats or solar powered boats.  Cheap ENERGY sources make growth possible, where is it?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:12 | 2074043 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Seriously?  The problems besetting the world economy all stem from overpriced shipping and now that the shipowners have stopped gouging us all will be well?

Wow.  Who'd have thought the solution to the problem of faltering economic growth was that simple?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:23 | 2074073 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Free shipping on all gold orders Bitchez.

 

 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:44 | 2074144 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Indeed.

But aren't miners reporting that production is flatlining or decreasing?

Love the metals.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:15 | 2074052 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

Cue trade war.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:23 | 2074074 fuu
fuu's picture

It was over 10,000 4 years ago. Using your logic we should be in the midst of a boom.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 11:28 | 2074268 tmosley
tmosley's picture

According to Robo, we are!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:39 | 2075152 fuu
fuu's picture

It's like 2009 again...

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 16:23 | 2075596 akak
akak's picture

According to RobotShitforbrains, Bernanke is ten feet tall and bulletproof, too.  The infallible, omnipotent central bankster.  According to RobotShitforbrains, Netflix is the wave of the future .... er, I mean was the wave of the future .... and gold and silver were blowtorched, for good, back in 2008 ... and in 2009 .... and in 2010 .... and in 2011 ....

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:07 | 2074031 youngman
youngman's picture

They have kept Gold very quiet the last few months..even though the monies being printed have increased by 2-3 trillion...I think this is part of the "plan" by the Central bankers...try to keep gold and silver quiet....but the Asians know and the rest of the world knows too....they will keep buying the real stuff..we will keep shorting the paper..paper rules in the Western world right now...its wrong..its bad..but it does...so far we have not been able to beat the bankers..they have the politicians behind them are are winning and surviving so far...someday it wiil change....but right now they control the game...

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:11 | 2074036 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

LWA, I usually junk your drivel. On this I think the short term message is bad but low prices will eventually help so I'll up vote you.

With nat gas prices so low I am looking to expanding business there. The fix for low prices is low prices. This solution seems to go unnoticed by the powers that be. They are morons.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:09 | 2074037 s2man
s2man's picture

Gold is not "the yellow metal".  It is so special it has its own color, gold.  That's like calling an orange the yellow-redish fruit.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:11 | 2074042 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

But a piece of paper with 100 printed on it is worth 100 dollars.

 

Pretty sharp analysis.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 13:01 | 2074652 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

 

American Greed - S04E07 - Funny Money

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1O7_QgtrkWk

Uploaded by on Dec 8, 2011

Albert Talton is running a counterfeiting operation and circulates more than $7 million in phony cash around the glob

 

got a phone book?

Print your own Money!

CNBC took the time to train all the out of work Wall Street people! LULZ!!

 this is how the Powers that be look after their own.. testing their moxy.. forbidden fruit tests all the time!

dance monkey! dance!!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:12 | 2074044 The Fonz...befo...
The Fonz...before shark jump's picture

Who are these moronic gold bears that think all you need is a shovel and start mining for gold...laughable...it's not like printing paper at all...it's actually very hard.....exploration costs are very high....in the millions and drilling is in the tens of millions and then proving up reserves etc etc by the time you are producing those very valuable ounces of rock you are already out of pockets 10s to 100 s of millions of dollars and also probably spent the last 5 to 10 years of your life getting to that point....Many people do and find nothing....

Yet these moronic bears think it's just a button that's pushed...

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:14 | 2074048 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

There was a recent article postulating that, over the next 20 years, the Chinese middle class will grow to exceed the totals of the middle classes of both Europe and the US.  The current Chinese middle class is all in on gold as the  investment alternative now preferred over stocks and real estate which are bubblicious.

Hold your physical close at hand, folks; the future prices can only go parabolic.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:30 | 2074098 Diet Coke and F...
Diet Coke and Floozies's picture

I wonder if there is enough resources on earth for that to happen... Perhaps their middle class would be comparable to pre-2007 North American lower middle class?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:19 | 2074056 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Weren't all these bankers the same guys laughing hysterically at the idea of $800 gold 4 years ago? I dont care about these jackwagons opinion!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:20 | 2074063 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Yes.

 

 

.....you were waiting for more? There is no more.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 16:33 | 2075632 akak
akak's picture

Yeah, especially including that lying assclown of a spokesman for Kitco, Jon Nadler.  Funny, it hasn't stopped him from repeatedly and near-hysterically calling for a return to $800 gold --- the very price level that he mocked as "bubble territory" a short four years ago.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:24 | 2074080 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Dollar and equities both technically extended and setting up to fall.  Is this an arbitrage opportunity (which direction?) or an end of the near perfect correlation?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:29 | 2074094 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

good miners lower cutoff grades when prices are high. So you're putting through more tonnage but getting less silver but making more $ because prices are high. Basically increasing your deposit life by mining stuff that wouldn't be economical in a lower price environment and saving some of the good stuff. 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:42 | 2074128 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Obviously we are about to see a magnificent gold boner based off of that headline that we should not expect a magnificent gold boner.

If the US sold all of its gold, it couldn't even pay off GE's debt.  That is how stupidly low the price is.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:56 | 2074182 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Who cares about the electronic price of gold/silver any more ?

Jim Willie and others are saying that orders in the ton volume are changing hands at HUGE PREMIUMS.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 11:31 | 2074277 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

When you are sitting at the computer buying Gold or Silver or whatever, the price is updated in near real time.

 

As far as I am concerned, silver looks pretty good right now. It's like a Loaded spring ready to get out if something slips.

 

And if it drops? Buy more. Make sure it's Physical and NOT paper inferno.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:59 | 2074192 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

I'm holding out hope the "Gold Rush Alaska" reality show's claims will start panning out and bring much needed supply to the market. So far they got about 8oz after spending a half million dollars.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 11:30 | 2074282 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I believe there was a ounce or two somewhere in the family stories from the 60's after spending huge sums of money.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 11:06 | 2074216 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

Bashing the Barbaric metal.....very bullish when they show their hatred for anything but their high commission/high profit mutual funds.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 11:53 | 2074348 jomama
jomama's picture

fiat denomination of said metals is so passè.  

our bet with our stash is that the whole fiat ponzi goes down in a blazing glory.

until then, picking the nits is just noise.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 12:16 | 2074468 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Knowing the Zero Hedger,you's have probably heard that Central Banks INCREASED their "Gold lending" in 2011 ,for the first time in a DECADE.

The Financial Times reports.

They say the borrowers of said gold is then sold to raise U.S Dollars..

They did NOT mention the lease rates of said gold was often in the NEGATIVE numbers.

tHIS IS THE gOLD SUPPRESSION THAT IS GOING ON.

fuck you'S BANKERS.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 12:49 | 2074623 michaelsmith_9
michaelsmith_9's picture

Gold is likely to test $2,000 this year after the current retracement to lower levels is completed.  http://www.marketoverflow.com/2012/01/market-report-1-18-2012/

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:05 | 2074989 Random_Robert
Random_Robert's picture

Declining metals production is seemingly ultra-bearish for mining equity shares...

Don't ask me how- I'm not stupid enough to formulate the fractally disjointed logic that underlies the premise.

Oh wait- maybe I know why- It is because silver and gold go into the manufacture of the ipad, and you can't eat iPads. Therefore, iPads, and by extension the metals within, and by further extension the companies that produce said metals..... are worthless.

F'in  genius

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