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2012 Just Woke Up In 2011 All Over Again

Tyler Durden's picture





 

While the analogs to 2011 and 2010 have come thick and fast and our early January call for a three-peat has proved all too correct so far, the last few days are starting to really scream 2011 chaos regimes as Gold, Stocks, Treasuries, and the USD are now mimicking the 'reaction function' of investors faced with a world on its own. Just as last year, Treasury yields were first to go, then stocks and gold diverged as the USD surged. Ironic that this is occurring on the day when Gold and 30Y Treasury bond prices are now outperforming the S&P 500 YTD.

Gold (yellow) vs Stocks (blue) vs Treasury Yields (red) vs the USD (green)...

 

and YTD, Gold and the long bond are now outperforming stocks...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:38 | Link to Comment mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

sell in may and buy in august or sept..is working like a charm again..

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:52 | Link to Comment Robert-Paulson
Robert-Paulson's picture

Aluminum used to be worth more than gold at one point. So too will gold be worthless when the first recovered asteroid is mined and contains more gold than ever recovered on earth... Know what happened when the Spanish flooded Europe with south American gold 400 years ago
D? They crashed the market. Na, I'll stick with king dollar, backed by the mightiest military the world has ever known, and a around 4000 nuclear weapons. :)

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 15:03 | Link to Comment Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

"King Dollar" will be printed into oblivion long before any asteroid get mined.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 18:37 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The guys who bring the asteroid in won't even know what a dollar was or where it was used.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 07:11 | Link to Comment daily bread
daily bread's picture

I hope the asteroid miners slip and the let the asteroid take out wall st.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 15:15 | Link to Comment SemperFord
SemperFord's picture

Who will be around to mine it when it brings extinction to us like the T-Rex? Only roaches will survive so I guess bankers and politicians will still be around and since they don't actually do any work that bitch will not get mined...

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 15:27 | Link to Comment Overfed
Overfed's picture

Humor. I get it! :-D

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 15:55 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

Mining ansteroids? That has got to be one of the lamest trolls I've ever read.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 15:57 | Link to Comment Republicae
Republicae's picture

Now, that is perhaps one of the more inane comments I've seen lately. 

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 16:29 | Link to Comment D-Man
D-Man's picture

Gold cost $21 dollars in 1910. King dollar has lost 99% of it's value since 1910. Which was the better one to hold?

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 17:30 | Link to Comment smb12321
smb12321's picture

Not sure where you get your history. Spain never "flooded" Europe with gold. The Armada invasion was over England's blockade of northern Europe that had forced Spain to unload her gold in Italian city states. It did not "crash the market"; instead, the city states became the richest on the planet with their 3/4 cut. Despite transferring over a billion in gold Spain was constantly in debt since the gold was used for endless military campaigns instead of banking, trade or investment. She ended up broke and defeated.  

Through it all, the demand for precious metal never wavered.

 

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 18:36 | Link to Comment mickeyman
mickeyman's picture

Silver took a bit of a hit, resulting in silver mines closing in the Leipzig - Dresden areas in the 16th century.

You are right that all that gold hurt Spain--partly through wars, but also because like the Saudis today, the Spaniards could afford to hire servants to do everything. Then when the gold ran out you had a population that no longer knew how to do anything.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 18:49 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

They still know how to walk to their local Santander branch to pull out their deposits.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 21:55 | Link to Comment Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Your essentially correct, those Italian cities aka Venetian bankers became even more wealthy being the middleman for everyone. 

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 20:18 | Link to Comment Umh
Umh's picture

I'm not sure whether you are just cynical or the worst market timer I have ever heard about.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 15:23 | Link to Comment long-shorty
long-shorty's picture

Paulson,

Are you joking or something? I mean, you sound like Harry Wanger, but I can tell that he is not being serious. But you, you sound like you are serious.

Anyhow, here's a clue. It's kind of annoying when people say "/sarc/" following sarcasm, so I have invented a new symbol to denote sarcasm: $.

Try it out. It works.

I wonder how Scalia will vote when the NDAA comes before the Supreme Court?$

See. Fast and easy.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 15:15 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Where does the 3:3opm rumor come from today?

A) FT

B) Reuters

C) Greece

D) Juncker

E) ECB "leak"

 

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 15:26 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Robofader rumoured dead and decaying after today's unabashed disembowelment. 

How's that?

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 16:57 | Link to Comment EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

I am sure if MoMoTrader were still allowed to play in the sand box he would claim he jumped out just in time.

For the memories:

http://youtu.be/e8pnA5DDXSs

I am more worried about Leo K..  I am sure he is somewhere bumming for coinage on a street corner, muttering to himself about Greek investments, solar investments , social welfare and where his therapist went wrong.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:39 | Link to Comment EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

Wait till 2012 wakes up in 1929.  That should be a scream too.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:43 | Link to Comment CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

Complete with banksters jumping out of skyscrapers.  Yes please.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:53 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I don't want anybody to die.

That's a lie I tell myself.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:40 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

Biderman!

Man, I love that guy. And he says stuff like "bullshit!".

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:40 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

It's actually feeling a bit like Sept 2008 to me ...

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:44 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Nope. More like July / August 2008.

Daily losses of 4% or better on the DOW and S&P are coming soon and then it's a madhouse again.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:53 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Fun summer.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:42 | Link to Comment CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

Can we just stop repeating the same year?  All that means to me is the same people are going to get away with the same shit.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:43 | Link to Comment john39
john39's picture

groundhog year.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 18:52 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

That's what you posted all those other years as well

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:45 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

Santelli vs LIESman at 3:15 being teased on good 'ol cnbc.

Also  they want us to know the markets are " well off the lows"

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

a stimulus debate between Liesman and Santelli ... they should just replay the one from the last crisis - no one would even notice.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:52 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

Except ol Ricky seems way angrier than ever. Got my popcorn ready.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:54 | Link to Comment Heaven7734
Heaven7734's picture

Liesman always gets that look like he just sh*t him pants in public when econ news is bad and his guy Obama might not get reelected. Then it's the crazy scramble to find the "silver lining".

Santelli has been right about this economy for years now.  Just took the lemmings a while to wake up.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 19:25 | Link to Comment John Wilmot
John Wilmot's picture

One of the co-shills pestered LiesMan about his previous forcast for 2.9% GDP growth 2nd half of the year. LiesMan said there might be good news, so, uh, yea.

...Goebbels would be ashamed, propaganda has really nosedived in quality. Hard to even make fun any more, like...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDbuhhRthqU

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:43 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

On our way to 2008 all over again.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Nothing solved, nothing changed, just a new bottle of vodka or heroine filled syringe to "feel" that things are better.

Wonder how long QE and money printing can keep the addict going before they hit rock bottom?

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:52 | Link to Comment junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

"Why did you do this to me God? Next time you are going to get my hopes up, can you at least take me to a grease monkey so I can at least get lubed up before you fuck me. Or at at least a little courtesy lick. How about a little courtesy lick next time you try to fuck me?" - Cartman

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:56 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

how reassuring!

of course, inNature, mimicry's intent is ________ to deceive (always, sometimes or never?  let's go with always, ok?)

something about getting eaten for lunch if you recall, tyler?

here's another tough Q:  what comes after risk0ff?

chat among yerselves, BiCheZ and feel free to open any books you have wedged up yer asses with yer heads, ok?

and hava a fun weekend, too!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:57 | Link to Comment Watson
Watson's picture

A few observations:

The entire US yield curve is at levels that make further Fed bond market intervention pretty pointless economically (though doubtless the Fed feels pressure to 'do something', just to show that the 'doer' is still alive).

A lot of noise about an approximately 2% fall in the US stock market, which has itself doubled from the lows.

A lot of noise about gold's move, which still leaves it a _very_ long way short of the recent high.

Am I alone in thinking that this is all a bit of an over-reaction?

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 15:05 | Link to Comment Tinky
Tinky's picture

Depends whether we are seeing the beginning of an accelerating trend, or simply more volatility.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 19:03 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The treasuries chart is scary. That support that got taken out a couple days ago goes back forever. I'm usually in the inflation or deflation-then-inflation camp but if interest rates keep plummeting the system will implode.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:59 | Link to Comment Cranios
Cranios's picture

I JUST WOKE UP AND IT LOOKS MORE LIKE 1066...

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 15:00 | Link to Comment zebra
zebra's picture

is ZH done with mocking FB??

or just take a breather..

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 15:08 | Link to Comment junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Its only down 6%.  That's just a regular trading day, not really news...

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 15:28 | Link to Comment Dr. Kananga
Dr. Kananga's picture

FB and WFC are syncing nicely.

(in fact all the big boys are looking gray around the gills. What's up?)

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 15:01 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I'm curious what becomes of any asset showing any gain for the year once the hedges start racing for the AAPL exit ?

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 15:12 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

The AAPL longs are holding praying for a product announcement during the App Developer conference. 

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 15:32 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

I dont think any products were ever announced during one. Usually just software.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 15:11 | Link to Comment TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results . Albert Einstein

 

Gotta love that quote.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 15:24 | Link to Comment Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

hearing it over and over again also causes insanity

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 16:01 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Could you have him repeat that please? I didn't catch it the first 22 thousand times I heard it.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 04:32 | Link to Comment TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

Some people need repetition before they recognize their irrational behavior.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 20:23 | Link to Comment Umh
Umh's picture

When it gets old I just talk to myself.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 15:20 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Payback for Leap Day.  Joy!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 15:25 | Link to Comment xtop23
xtop23's picture

Not much time left where's the PPT?

Oh yeah, they want their freshly printed Franklins.

Stunning. Extortion at its finest. Gotti would be proud.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 16:10 | Link to Comment Roland99
Roland99's picture

DJIA negative on the year

S&P just broke below 200DMA

Next week should be fun

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 15:55 | Link to Comment The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

BTFD I say, on tvix

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 19:38 | Link to Comment savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

up %4 one week, down %4 thew next week, yup sure feels like 2008. i wonder if the govs of the world will  try stimming again  to produce another  boom in 9-18 months, or is this the big one? are we in for the 10 yyear recession and austerity?

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