2012 - The Year Of Living Dangerously

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Mark Grant author of the "Out of the Box" financial commentary

2012 - The Year Of Living Dangerously

It is a curious world that we live in these days. America bumping along, China grinding down, Europe gaming the system, bonds trading off Treasuries compressing significantly, equities buoyed by new cash and the dearth of decent places to put capital and a risk factor that increases with each ratchet up of the great European pyramid scheme. It was on January 13, 2010 that I said Greece would default and yesterday S&P placed them in default which was so widely expected that the market yawned and turned its attention to the coming European LTRO. I think the markets will be surprised, during the next few weeks, with the consequences of the Greek default but that remains to be seen. In the meantime, despite the ECB’s open spigot, one of the major banks in Austria needed to be recapitalized yesterday with Austria not only injecting new capital but taking an almost one billion dollar hit.

We are living in a world these days of semi-transparent “knowns” and great “unknowns” that provide a complexity for investing far past any normal scenario. Not only could the markets be turned on the proverbial dime but they could be violently ratcheted down the cliffs of Dover by any number of possible and not outlier events. Knowing about something and understanding the intended and unintended consequences are two different turns of the screw. As the last several years have unfolded I have noted a progress of events where markets rally on manufactured headlines, calm down and then react negatively as the entire story is understood. A pattern has developed in fact which is why I point out the grave dangers lurking now in the Great Game and why I continue to advise caution and cash as we veer off the bumpers in some strange pinball game that sometimes seems to have been mechanized by some hallucinating artist such as Salvador Dali. Europe continues to just barely pull the cat out of the hat but I shudder at the consequences when the trickery no longer produces the desired effects and the audience catches on to the magician’s deceit.

You will recall the days leading into the sub-prime meltdown; easy money, loans without documentation, a massive leveraging up of assets and then the crack in the Earth’s surface and the abyss that we faced. When I regard Europe these days I see a repeat of this cycle which now involves sovereign credits and European banks and easy money and loans without documentation and a massive leveraging up of assets and liabilities with unhampered capital provided by the printing presses at the European Central Bank. The similarities are there for all of us that would like to stop and look, which clearly is not many, but then that was also the case during the heady days of the subprime funding madness. First it was Greece and then Ireland and Portugal and now Spain is sinking into the quicksand and asking for better terms so it doesn’t have to plunge into even greater fiscal controls and austerity measures and the pressures on the fault lines are increasing dramatically in my opinion.

I point specifically to the reasons for my increasing concern; the European banks are three times larger than the European sovereigns, the ECB is not the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, the leading economy in Europe, Germany, is 22% of the economy of America, that there are ever and always consequences for providing free money, that Europe is in a recession and it will be much deeper than thought by many in my view, that the demanded austerity measures are unquestionably worsening the recession and increasing unemployment, that nations become much more self-centered when their economies are contracting and that the more protracted all of this is; the more pronounced Newton’s reaction will be when the pendulum reverses course.

Now I am quite used to being ballyhooed. It was on December 27, 2007 when I identified the risks of subprime mortgages and CDO’s, my early call on Greece was when their ten year yield 4.38% and while perhaps not of giant intellect I am a reasonably good sleuth. I tout nothing but I warn plenty in an effort to keep all of you out of some gaping hole that is squarely in front of the path that we are taking. It is not gloom and doom that I pull around like Pig Pen’s black cloud but a giant warning sign that I plant firmly in the ground which says, “Don’t step here.” Today I point at Europe and intone once again, “Don‘t step here.”

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redpill's picture

Just checked on mah stash, just looks shiny, not dangerous.

BoNeSxxx's picture

This is getting boring... Although in six months, my guess is that we'll all long to go back to this calm before the storm.

There are no brakes left and the Aliens have yet to reveal themselves as our 11th hour benefactors.

AbelCatalyst's picture

A drop of water drips on stone...  It may not look like much, but eventually the stone cracks in half...  Drip by drip the fingers of instability are forming within the stone, and eventually it will break - we've passed the point of no return and things are going to get far worse before they get better - the darkest hour precedes the dawn!!  I'm not sure if even our gold hoarding, gun toting, food storing, ZH readers will be safe!!    

spiral_eyes's picture

So Mr. Geithner. We've got a stack of evidence you've been evading taxes.


You're going to have to talk to us, Mr. Geithner.


Please, you need to co-operate with us. Then you can get back to saving Europe.


knukles's picture

The food stamp program, part of the Department of Agriculture, is pleased to be distributing the greatest amount of food stamps ever. 

Meanwhile, the Forest Service, also part of the Department of Agriculture, asks us to "please do not feed the animals" because the animals may grow dependent and not learn to take care of themselves.

Conrad Murray's picture

USA doesn't need SNAP anymore. Feed the slaves the remains of the false flag/war victims instead of wasting them...

"Some human remains recovered from the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the Pentagon and in Shanksville, Pa., were incinerated and dumped in a landfill"


MMMMMMM, soylent slaves! Let's Roll Retards!

JPM Hater001's picture

Where's Ms. Moneypenny...I have some danger for her.

knightowl77's picture

Too funny and very sadly true

Goatboy's picture

Yes it is sad to see how some folks on ZH are thoroughly brainwashed by big money and intoxicated with greed. These poor idiots dont know that independence cannot exist (especially for individual humans). They fail to see that free markets cannot exist as they imagine. But keep insisting on this religion. Even Tyler himself does that. From article to article "markets are being spoiled by evil doers and "central planners"". What a sick joke. Not being able to understand that free market cannot exist outside single, medieval, peaceful, resource rich village of no more than 500 people who know each other. Whole history is history of "free markets" and we know how that went. There can be no independence or free market contained solely within economic sphere.

i-dog's picture

As if Nazi Germany, then the Soviet Union, then North Korea weren't enough of an example of the follies of Central Planning™, along comes the EU to finally prove the stupidity of it.

Iwanttoknow's picture

This was first reported on benjamin fulford's blog last monday.I do'nt think Fulford is an NWO agent.

LowProfile's picture

I think Fulford is being "handled" (fed bullshit via elaborate theater) by the CIA.

mrgneiss's picture

And who is that weird Judo guy with him?  Supposed to be Yakuza?  Doesn't he know about the Tepco - Yakuza connection?

LowProfile's picture

No idea, I read him for entertainment.

It just doesn't wash.  Why would this super-secret super-rich cabal use *that* guy to disseminate information?  And on what looks like public access TV?

BoNeSxxx's picture

Limerick King, meet Cliché King…



/friendly ball busting

Doña K's picture

I am just thinking that if she blows before the elections, (pehaps by design) O'Bummer may declare marshal law and pull a Hugo Chavez on American people. Then what?

Your thoughts zerohedgers!

BoNeSxxx's picture

Many on here have speculated the very same thing.  Seen it many times.

As for 'then what?'... Then we see what happens when 300 million firearms find their way into 600,000 VERY pissed off hands.

Oracle of Kypseli's picture

We love living dangerously.


DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Good a place as any to put in this fabulous link that "nuinut" put in another thread.  Iran, oil, and gold.

It is an easy to digest chunk of "Freegold", namely the first logical explanation of how Iran could entice other nations to pay for crude with physical gold.  By offering to take much less gold than the current "paper price" would imply.  Must reading, outstanding piece.


Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Do Chen, long time no talk. How about this:

Maybe that's why Geithner was arrested.



Fast forward the thing to 17:20 where Lord Blackheath speaks and notice the attendance then and listen then for the next 11 minutes.  


?This is the transcript with commentary

Doña K's picture

As bizarre a story as the confiscated bonds in the Italian/Swiss border

Just in case, I am dedicating the next paycheck to gold maples

prains's picture

Then what?


property values will skyrocket in Nunavut from sudden influx of tanned refugees

Conrad Murray's picture

The fat, apathetic slaves will continue to self-medicate on whichever anti-depressant or anti-anxiety(really, anti-reality) drugs are stuffed down their petulant throats. They will continue to watch American Idle and ESPN until there is nothing left to rape, pillage, and plunder.

In short, nothing will happen.

prains's picture

ah.....take out delivery service is gonna take a beatin'

tempo's picture

The reason the problems can't be solved and everything is being deferred is that the worldwide labor glut and prevailing competitive wage is $25/day w/o benefits (Foxconn)where workers are forced to labor 12 hours/day, 6 days per week and live like animals in 20 man/woman dorm rooms. Compared to the US/EU/UK lifestyles of insane blogging, twitting, TMZing we can't ever be competitive. So the West buys domestic peace with ever increasing deficits and debt. Yes, there are big problems ahead. But Corp profits will continue to increase as long as the West increases deficits on a increasing compounding basis. Gold and silver prices reflect that reality. So equities will likely reach all time highs before the election based on phony economic stats and record deficits. 2013 when spending is reduced and individual taxes increase will cause the big selloff. However, no one knows how much debt can and will be issued. Perhaps $5 tillion FED and ECB balance sheets will be seen in 2013. The downside is so bad no one will let it happen??

Crab Cake's picture

There is no such thing as "safe", it is an illusory feeling. I dont want to be safe, I want the Constitution and equality under the law. Fuck this fascist sham of a Republic. I hope DC sinks in the swamp, and Manhattan slips into the sea.

Next time you see a banker or politician, take a tire iron and hittem in the face.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Crab Cake!  Good seeing you around these parts.

Crab Cake's picture

Always around I just dont talk much anymore, theres not much point. Nobody is ever going to stand up, and if they do they wont be heard and will be labelled "fringe" or "terrorist".

The depths of disillusion....

CH1's picture

We're all terrorists now.

LookingWithAmazement's picture

Boring - told you so. It's a silver squeeze. JPM finally crashed? Or storm in teacup? My guess.

The Fonz...before shark jump's picture

Buddy, that's the govs trump card.....aliens

AbruptlyKawaii's picture

american anti-depressant usage represents 66% of total global consumption, in children as young as 4 years old, anti-depressant use is at 10%

and if you dont take any dont worry, it's in the water table and the food chain.




rosiescenario's picture

..you mean to tell me I have been paying for this stuff and I did not need to?

UP Forester's picture

Yeah!  And don't forget to ask the kids at that Ohio school, VT, and Columbine, among others, how them anti-depressants work out....

AbruptlyKawaii's picture

lol just drink tap water man ...works for me!.....nsa 17 million sq feet 1.7 billion domestic emails and phone calls intercepted and read every single day....lmao...let's keep voting!

...they can't filter for it yet or mediate yet, so it gets recycled lol weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! they're mostly petroleum based ....hahahahhaha what a stupid waste of a species we are....

Calmyourself's picture

This is your last comment then or..

IrritableBowels's picture

...stay tuned for the ten o'clock news.

Big Corked Boots's picture

Ha! I grow my own food and drink water from my own well... that explains why the doctor increased my dosages.

Ghordius's picture

Mine is dangerous, it wants me to go boating with it!

So one part of Europe - 22% of it, looks better and german and one part of it - 2% of it, looks worse and greek. So? You have at least to invoke a Domino Effect to make sense out of it. Or is the US of A homogenuos?

Which leads to how five companies are befuzzling the whole world with the derivatives paper casino scam. Which brings the fiat currencies to an earlier senescence.


Calmyourself's picture

I must be missing something as Germany is up to its neck in debt also and just whom is going to buy their exports in this environment?

Chupacabra-322's picture

Declaration of War on the United States Government.

We don't want to destroy government. We want to fix it.


To the Citizens of the United States and the United States Government.
We are Anonymous.

In the past few months, our collective has been organizing the operation known as Operation Blackout. Part of the operation's purpose was to alert the people of the coming bill that was to be called the Stop Online Piracy Act.

This Act would give Congress the power to censor any internet website they wish without consent from the Citizens of the United States. This act would've also had the power to jail any person who infringed on its new copyright law for an equivalence of five years. This copyright law would've had the power to destroy social networking sites such as Facebook and YouTube. Video gameplay and free movies would cease to exist.

However, Operation Blackout was a success. As a collective, we've managed to spread the word and alert the masses. Internet giants such as Google, Wikipedia, and Reddit became hand-in-hand with us as we all managed to make an impact on the decisions of our, "free government". But as we've seen with Megaupload, the government may not need a bill to be passed to get their way. Other operations we've conducted over this time period have awaken the people to the nightmare that is the United States Government. Sections 1031 and 1032 of the National Defense Authorization Act have been ratified. Yet we face new threats.

The United States Government is seeking to pass the Cyber Security Act of 2012. This act is as Orwellian as it sounds; it will endanger our collective and we will not stand by and watch while this government of lies prepares to take away our freedoms. The National Security Agency insists on labeling us as a leaderless, terrorist organization. The question is, "who do we terrorize?". Can it possibly be that the United States government is truly scared of us? Nevertheless, The time for action is now.

Our collective has realized, along with many United States citizens, that the current government is no longer functional. Our economy is unstable, our representatives uncooperative, and our system, destroyed.

We are not calling upon the collective to deface or use a distributed denial of service attack on a United States government agency website or affiliate. We are not calling upon the people to occupy a city or protest in front of a local building. This has not brought on us any legislative change or alternate law. It has only brought us bloodshed and false criticism. For the last 12 years, voting was useless. Corporations and lobbyists are the true leaders of this country and are the ones with the power to control our lives. To rebuild our government, we must first destroy it.

Our time for democracy is here.
Our time for real change is here.
This is America's time, to have its own revolution.

Therefore, Anonymous has decided to openly declare war on the United States government. This is a call to arms. We call upon the Citizens of the United States to stand beside us in overthrowing this corrupted body and call upon a new era. Our allegiance is to the American people, because they are us, and we are them.

Operation V, engaged.

We are Anonymous.
We are Americans.
We never Forgive.
We never Forget.
To the United States government, it's too late to expect us.



Conrad Murray's picture

May Day 2012. Beware.

EDIT: March 8 is the day FBI will try to shut down the internet. March 31 is DNS root server attack day.

Are you familiar with mesh networks? Do you have the ability to use dial-up access? Have you prepared a list of IPs to connect to in case of DNS assault? Time is short.