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2012 - The Year Of Living Dangerously

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Mark Grant author of the "Out of the Box" financial commentary

2012 - The Year Of Living Dangerously

It is a curious world that we live in these days. America bumping along, China grinding down, Europe gaming the system, bonds trading off Treasuries compressing significantly, equities buoyed by new cash and the dearth of decent places to put capital and a risk factor that increases with each ratchet up of the great European pyramid scheme. It was on January 13, 2010 that I said Greece would default and yesterday S&P placed them in default which was so widely expected that the market yawned and turned its attention to the coming European LTRO. I think the markets will be surprised, during the next few weeks, with the consequences of the Greek default but that remains to be seen. In the meantime, despite the ECB’s open spigot, one of the major banks in Austria needed to be recapitalized yesterday with Austria not only injecting new capital but taking an almost one billion dollar hit.

We are living in a world these days of semi-transparent “knowns” and great “unknowns” that provide a complexity for investing far past any normal scenario. Not only could the markets be turned on the proverbial dime but they could be violently ratcheted down the cliffs of Dover by any number of possible and not outlier events. Knowing about something and understanding the intended and unintended consequences are two different turns of the screw. As the last several years have unfolded I have noted a progress of events where markets rally on manufactured headlines, calm down and then react negatively as the entire story is understood. A pattern has developed in fact which is why I point out the grave dangers lurking now in the Great Game and why I continue to advise caution and cash as we veer off the bumpers in some strange pinball game that sometimes seems to have been mechanized by some hallucinating artist such as Salvador Dali. Europe continues to just barely pull the cat out of the hat but I shudder at the consequences when the trickery no longer produces the desired effects and the audience catches on to the magician’s deceit.

You will recall the days leading into the sub-prime meltdown; easy money, loans without documentation, a massive leveraging up of assets and then the crack in the Earth’s surface and the abyss that we faced. When I regard Europe these days I see a repeat of this cycle which now involves sovereign credits and European banks and easy money and loans without documentation and a massive leveraging up of assets and liabilities with unhampered capital provided by the printing presses at the European Central Bank. The similarities are there for all of us that would like to stop and look, which clearly is not many, but then that was also the case during the heady days of the subprime funding madness. First it was Greece and then Ireland and Portugal and now Spain is sinking into the quicksand and asking for better terms so it doesn’t have to plunge into even greater fiscal controls and austerity measures and the pressures on the fault lines are increasing dramatically in my opinion.

I point specifically to the reasons for my increasing concern; the European banks are three times larger than the European sovereigns, the ECB is not the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, the leading economy in Europe, Germany, is 22% of the economy of America, that there are ever and always consequences for providing free money, that Europe is in a recession and it will be much deeper than thought by many in my view, that the demanded austerity measures are unquestionably worsening the recession and increasing unemployment, that nations become much more self-centered when their economies are contracting and that the more protracted all of this is; the more pronounced Newton’s reaction will be when the pendulum reverses course.

Now I am quite used to being ballyhooed. It was on December 27, 2007 when I identified the risks of subprime mortgages and CDO’s, my early call on Greece was when their ten year yield 4.38% and while perhaps not of giant intellect I am a reasonably good sleuth. I tout nothing but I warn plenty in an effort to keep all of you out of some gaping hole that is squarely in front of the path that we are taking. It is not gloom and doom that I pull around like Pig Pen’s black cloud but a giant warning sign that I plant firmly in the ground which says, “Don’t step here.” Today I point at Europe and intone once again, “Don‘t step here.”

 

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Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:16 | 2205885 redpill
redpill's picture

Just checked on mah stash, just looks shiny, not dangerous.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:27 | 2205925 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

This is getting boring... Although in six months, my guess is that we'll all long to go back to this calm before the storm.

There are no brakes left and the Aliens have yet to reveal themselves as our 11th hour benefactors.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:36 | 2205959 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

A drop of water drips on stone...  It may not look like much, but eventually the stone cracks in half...  Drip by drip the fingers of instability are forming within the stone, and eventually it will break - we've passed the point of no return and things are going to get far worse before they get better - the darkest hour precedes the dawn!!  I'm not sure if even our gold hoarding, gun toting, food storing, ZH readers will be safe!!    

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:47 | 2205995 mrgneiss
mrgneiss's picture

Timothy Geithner arrested and released?

http://www.lsnewsgroup.com/2012/02/27/was-treasury-secretary-arrested-questioned-released/

Apologize for OT.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:52 | 2206022 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

So Mr. Geithner. We've got a stack of evidence you've been evading taxes.

TIMMEH

You're going to have to talk to us, Mr. Geithner.

TIMMEH

Please, you need to co-operate with us. Then you can get back to saving Europe.

TIMMMMMMMEEEEEEEEEHHHHHHHHHH. 

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:44 | 2206306 knukles
knukles's picture

The food stamp program, part of the Department of Agriculture, is pleased to be distributing the greatest amount of food stamps ever. 


Meanwhile, the Forest Service, also part of the Department of Agriculture, asks us to "please do not feed the animals" because the animals may grow dependent and not learn to take care of themselves.

 
Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:57 | 2206334 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

USA doesn't need SNAP anymore. Feed the slaves the remains of the false flag/war victims instead of wasting them...

"Some human remains recovered from the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the Pentagon and in Shanksville, Pa., were incinerated and dumped in a landfill"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/portions-of-911-victims-remains-t...

MMMMMMM, soylent slaves! Let's Roll Retards!

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 21:35 | 2206427 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Where's Ms. Moneypenny...I have some danger for her.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 21:05 | 2206356 knightowl77
knightowl77's picture

Too funny and very sadly true

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 21:27 | 2206404 Goatboy
Goatboy's picture

Yes it is sad to see how some folks on ZH are thoroughly brainwashed by big money and intoxicated with greed. These poor idiots dont know that independence cannot exist (especially for individual humans). They fail to see that free markets cannot exist as they imagine. But keep insisting on this religion. Even Tyler himself does that. From article to article "markets are being spoiled by evil doers and "central planners"". What a sick joke. Not being able to understand that free market cannot exist outside single, medieval, peaceful, resource rich village of no more than 500 people who know each other. Whole history is history of "free markets" and we know how that went. There can be no independence or free market contained solely within economic sphere.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:05 | 2206499 i-dog
i-dog's picture

As if Nazi Germany, then the Soviet Union, then North Korea weren't enough of an example of the follies of Central Planning™, along comes the EU to finally prove the stupidity of it.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 04:39 | 2207107 prains
prains's picture

goat meets boy

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:15 | 2206108 RacerX
Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:31 | 2206140 Iwanttoknow
Iwanttoknow's picture

This was first reported on benjamin fulford's blog last monday.I do'nt think Fulford is an NWO agent.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:29 | 2206271 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

I think Fulford is being "handled" (fed bullshit via elaborate theater) by the CIA.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 21:18 | 2206377 mrgneiss
mrgneiss's picture

And who is that weird Judo guy with him?  Supposed to be Yakuza?  Doesn't he know about the Tepco - Yakuza connection?

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:09 | 2206510 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

No idea, I read him for entertainment.

It just doesn't wash.  Why would this super-secret super-rich cabal use *that* guy to disseminate information?  And on what looks like public access TV?

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:48 | 2206008 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

Limerick King, meet Cliché King…

 

 

/friendly ball busting

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:50 | 2206016 Doña K
Doña K's picture

I am just thinking that if she blows before the elections, (pehaps by design) O'Bummer may declare marshal law and pull a Hugo Chavez on American people. Then what?

Your thoughts zerohedgers!

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:55 | 2206024 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

Many on here have speculated the very same thing.  Seen it many times.

As for 'then what?'... Then we see what happens when 300 million firearms find their way into 600,000 VERY pissed off hands.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:04 | 2206059 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

We love living dangerously.

 

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:11 | 2206230 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Good a place as any to put in this fabulous link that "nuinut" put in another thread.  Iran, oil, and gold.

It is an easy to digest chunk of "Freegold", namely the first logical explanation of how Iran could entice other nations to pay for crude with physical gold.  By offering to take much less gold than the current "paper price" would imply.  Must reading, outstanding piece.

http://www.asymptotix.eu/news/gold-market-de-and-re-constructed-radical-forward-look-peter-trzaska

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 21:12 | 2206371 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Do Chen, long time no talk. How about this:

Maybe that's why Geithner was arrested.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzFsMZd9MOU&feature=related

http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/Player.aspx?meetingId=10093&wfs=true&player=smooth

Fast forward the thing to 17:20 where Lord Blackheath speaks and notice the attendance then and listen then for the next 11 minutes.  

http://sirratatap.com/category/banking/2-19-12-corrupt-banking-at-the-highest-levels/

?This is the transcript with commentary

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 21:25 | 2206397 Doña K
Doña K's picture

As bizarre a story as the confiscated bonds in the Italian/Swiss border

Just in case, I am dedicating the next paycheck to gold maples

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 04:42 | 2207110 prains
prains's picture

Then what?

 

property values will skyrocket in Nunavut from sudden influx of tanned refugees

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:05 | 2206066 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

The fat, apathetic slaves will continue to self-medicate on whichever anti-depressant or anti-anxiety(really, anti-reality) drugs are stuffed down their petulant throats. They will continue to watch American Idle and ESPN until there is nothing left to rape, pillage, and plunder.

In short, nothing will happen.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 04:44 | 2207112 prains
prains's picture

ah.....take out delivery service is gonna take a beatin'

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:18 | 2206531 tempo
tempo's picture

The reason the problems can't be solved and everything is being deferred is that the worldwide labor glut and prevailing competitive wage is $25/day w/o benefits (Foxconn)where workers are forced to labor 12 hours/day, 6 days per week and live like animals in 20 man/woman dorm rooms. Compared to the US/EU/UK lifestyles of insane blogging, twitting, TMZing we can't ever be competitive. So the West buys domestic peace with ever increasing deficits and debt. Yes, there are big problems ahead. But Corp profits will continue to increase as long as the West increases deficits on a increasing compounding basis. Gold and silver prices reflect that reality. So equities will likely reach all time highs before the election based on phony economic stats and record deficits. 2013 when spending is reduced and individual taxes increase will cause the big selloff. However, no one knows how much debt can and will be issued. Perhaps $5 tillion FED and ECB balance sheets will be seen in 2013. The downside is so bad no one will let it happen??

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:11 | 2206228 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

There is no such thing as "safe", it is an illusory feeling. I dont want to be safe, I want the Constitution and equality under the law. Fuck this fascist sham of a Republic. I hope DC sinks in the swamp, and Manhattan slips into the sea.

Next time you see a banker or politician, take a tire iron and hittem in the face.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:13 | 2206233 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Crab Cake!  Good seeing you around these parts.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:21 | 2206254 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

Always around I just dont talk much anymore, theres not much point. Nobody is ever going to stand up, and if they do they wont be heard and will be labelled "fringe" or "terrorist".

The depths of disillusion....

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:41 | 2206305 CH1
CH1's picture

We're all terrorists now.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 21:03 | 2206350 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

+1

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:11 | 2206090 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Boring - told you so. It's a silver squeeze. JPM finally crashed? Or storm in teacup? My guess.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 21:55 | 2206482 The Fonz...befo...
The Fonz...before shark jump's picture

Buddy, that's the govs trump card.....aliens

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:23 | 2206545 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

It will be *faked* invasion.

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 05:11 | 2207122 prains
Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:32 | 2205941 AbruptlyKawaii
AbruptlyKawaii's picture

american anti-depressant usage represents 66% of total global consumption, in children as young as 4 years old, anti-depressant use is at 10%

and if you dont take any dont worry, it's in the water table and the food chain.

 

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/WhyAmer

 

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:07 | 2206072 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

..you mean to tell me I have been paying for this stuff and I did not need to?

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:13 | 2206235 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Ha ha!  Free drugs!

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:32 | 2206754 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Yeah!  And don't forget to ask the kids at that Ohio school, VT, and Columbine, among others, how them anti-depressants work out....

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:14 | 2206074 AbruptlyKawaii
AbruptlyKawaii's picture

lol just drink tap water man ...works for me!.....nsa 17 million sq feet 1.7 billion domestic emails and phone calls intercepted and read every single day....lmao...let's keep voting!

...they can't filter for it yet or mediate yet, so it gets recycled lol weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! they're mostly petroleum based ....hahahahhaha what a stupid waste of a species we are....

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:40 | 2206301 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

This is your last comment then or..

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 03:09 | 2207057 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

...stay tuned for the ten o'clock news.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:09 | 2206223 Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

Ha! I grow my own food and drink water from my own well... that explains why the doctor increased my dosages.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:39 | 2205965 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Mine is dangerous, it wants me to go boating with it!

So one part of Europe - 22% of it, looks better and german and one part of it - 2% of it, looks worse and greek. So? You have at least to invoke a Domino Effect to make sense out of it. Or is the US of A homogenuos?

Which leads to how five companies are befuzzling the whole world with the derivatives paper casino scam. Which brings the fiat currencies to an earlier senescence.

BAN CDS

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:16 | 2206240 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

<insert>Jubilee!</insert>

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:50 | 2206322 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

I must be missing something as Germany is up to its neck in debt also and just whom is going to buy their exports in this environment?

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:42 | 2205981 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

Declaration of War on the United States Government.

We don't want to destroy government. We want to fix it.

TRANSCRIPT
____________

To the Citizens of the United States and the United States Government.
We are Anonymous.

In the past few months, our collective has been organizing the operation known as Operation Blackout. Part of the operation's purpose was to alert the people of the coming bill that was to be called the Stop Online Piracy Act.

This Act would give Congress the power to censor any internet website they wish without consent from the Citizens of the United States. This act would've also had the power to jail any person who infringed on its new copyright law for an equivalence of five years. This copyright law would've had the power to destroy social networking sites such as Facebook and YouTube. Video gameplay and free movies would cease to exist.

However, Operation Blackout was a success. As a collective, we've managed to spread the word and alert the masses. Internet giants such as Google, Wikipedia, and Reddit became hand-in-hand with us as we all managed to make an impact on the decisions of our, "free government". But as we've seen with Megaupload, the government may not need a bill to be passed to get their way. Other operations we've conducted over this time period have awaken the people to the nightmare that is the United States Government. Sections 1031 and 1032 of the National Defense Authorization Act have been ratified. Yet we face new threats.

The United States Government is seeking to pass the Cyber Security Act of 2012. This act is as Orwellian as it sounds; it will endanger our collective and we will not stand by and watch while this government of lies prepares to take away our freedoms. The National Security Agency insists on labeling us as a leaderless, terrorist organization. The question is, "who do we terrorize?". Can it possibly be that the United States government is truly scared of us? Nevertheless, The time for action is now.

Our collective has realized, along with many United States citizens, that the current government is no longer functional. Our economy is unstable, our representatives uncooperative, and our system, destroyed.

We are not calling upon the collective to deface or use a distributed denial of service attack on a United States government agency website or affiliate. We are not calling upon the people to occupy a city or protest in front of a local building. This has not brought on us any legislative change or alternate law. It has only brought us bloodshed and false criticism. For the last 12 years, voting was useless. Corporations and lobbyists are the true leaders of this country and are the ones with the power to control our lives. To rebuild our government, we must first destroy it.

Our time for democracy is here.
Our time for real change is here.
This is America's time, to have its own revolution.

Therefore, Anonymous has decided to openly declare war on the United States government. This is a call to arms. We call upon the Citizens of the United States to stand beside us in overthrowing this corrupted body and call upon a new era. Our allegiance is to the American people, because they are us, and we are them.

Operation V, engaged.

We are Anonymous.
We are Americans.
We never Forgive.
We never Forget.
To the United States government, it's too late to expect us.

REVOLUTION is here.
twitter.com/theanonmessage

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAaCZWQndqA&feature=player_embedded

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:26 | 2206091 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

May Day 2012. Beware.

EDIT: March 8 is the day FBI will try to shut down the internet. March 31 is DNS root server attack day.

Are you familiar with mesh networks? Do you have the ability to use dial-up access? Have you prepared a list of IPs to connect to in case of DNS assault? Time is short.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:58 | 2206159 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

178.209.48.14 zerohedge

95.143.193.148 survivalblog

 98.158.27.203 Drudge

74.63.40.16 the blaze

Edit:  Copy and paste the number into your browser just like you would a domain name.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:19 | 2206249 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Thanks!  Copied and pasted.  To be emailed.

Another + 1

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 21:21 | 2206390 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

TOR Browser

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:11 | 2206517 centerline
centerline's picture

Thanks.  For the addresses and the reminder that I ought to have this covered as well.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:50 | 2206179 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

I'd probably watch out for 3-22-12 as well.  Skulls and Bones Flase Flag day too. 

The Order

The name Scull and Bones gave themselves over 150 years ago.

The Order- 322

322 comes from the Spring solstice, when the darkness moves into the light.  The Order is waiting for the Dawn of the New Day.  Now that all world Central Banks have their interest rates tied at their hips, they are prepared for this sun splash.

End the Order

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:50 | 2206616 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

March 8 eh?

Purim AND a full moon. . . handy.

@ Chupacabra - the vernal equinox can vary by "date" as it is the point when the Sun moves into zero degrees Aries.

this year it's 10:15pm Pacific, 19March, 1:15am Eastern, ect. . .

but I do realise that multiples of "11" are *cough* revered, as in 11, 22, 33. . .

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:56 | 2206195 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

The above seems to be evidence that 'Anonymous' is sometimes a CIA tool, as the 'Anonymous' piece above claims:

« ... Internet giants such as Google, Wikipedia, and Reddit became hand-in-hand with us  ... »

Most every computer geek in the world knows that Google and Wikipedia are both CIA companies, originally funded by the CIA.

Google censors and manipulates search results to hide crimes of the US regime, and Google's CIA sister, Wikipedia, fills the internet with lies for the sheeple, on the 5% or 10% of topics important to CIA and Mossad.

Here's where I took my avatar from, and also shows Google at work censoring the global internet:

Live Photo: Google Inc. Caught Censoring EU Search Results about US court corruption
Google Internet Censorship - Censure d'Internet par Google - Internet censuur door Google
http://www.flickr.com/photos/22325431@N05/6100668211/in/photostream

'Ex-Agent: CIA Seed Money Helped Launch Google', retired intelligence agent Robert David Steele interviewed by Paul Joseph Watson, and speaking of the CIA's Dr Rick Steinheiser and his connections with Google:
http://www.infowars.com/articles/bb/google_cia_seed_money_launched_googl...

Jimmy Wales of Wikipedia is a mafia former porn king involved in harming children, and his Wikipedia 'hive' team have known criminal backgrounds and involvements ... their willingness to spread lies to murder is why the US-CIA hired them as the Wikipedia 'team' ... Wikipedia is designed so the CIA and Mossad agents and corporate criminals can be 'anonymous' while planting bullsh*t there.

Current EU case re Wikipedia and Google in the attack on Europe, trying to murder European citizens criticising the USA:

Report to the EU Parliament and the Commission of the European Union
Anti-Competition Crimes of EU Internet Monopoly Google Inc. (with CIA) and Wikipedia (with CIA), to Erase EU Journalism, to Slander and Murder EU - Polish Citizen, Writer, Journalist,  Non-Zionist Jew, and Harvard graduate
http://www.indymedia.nl/nl/2011/07/77181.shtml
Original in pdf format:
http://eureportsnonzionistjews.hostfile.nl/file/0zndj5ea3v/410/nzjd-eu-r...

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:00 | 2206207 Cynthia11640
Cynthia11640's picture

Isn't this the group that said they were going to wipe out the Greek debt if the IMF didn't withdraw? What happened to that?

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:32 | 2206279 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Maybe our necessary and expedient anti terrorist laws prevented this from happening................

 

/sarc

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 02:18 | 2207029 shuckster
shuckster's picture

What are your kids going to say when they find out you spent their college funds on a handfull of metal coins?

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:19 | 2205898 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I've got the same sign on my property perimeter.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:21 | 2205903 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

All's quiet on the western front...

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:21 | 2205905 battle axe
battle axe's picture

So, he thinks Europe is going to blow apart? What  incredible insight. 

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:25 | 2205917 redpill
redpill's picture

Who could have guessed?  Crap, I think I'll have to cancel my Mediterranean Cruise on the Costa Concordia.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:42 | 2206604 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Naw, just exchange it for tickets to sail the Indian Ocean with them.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:41 | 2205978 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Traduced, he thinks the ECB will not lend enough?

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:21 | 2205907 Offtheradar
Offtheradar's picture

Pleeeaaaasssseee, lets get this show on the road!

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:04 | 2206063 bdc63
bdc63's picture

Amen to that.  I am SO over all of this ...

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:25 | 2205916 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Newton's going to have a few more theorems to prove when this AAPL falls.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:27 | 2206130 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I'm guessing if AAPL comes out with another "Newton" it will damn well fall...

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:26 | 2205920 non_anon
non_anon's picture

how about the year of living suicidal?

THE HUNGARIAN SUICIDE SONG

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WBZwLkvpFI

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 05:06 | 2207120 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Marche Funebre...

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:27 | 2205923 mendolover
mendolover's picture

Just heard on CNBS among other things that Greece will be voting to lower the minimum wage by 32%.  Wow.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:32 | 2205943 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

Time to open up a Big Lots that sells Molotov Cocktails...

Or put them on the McDonalds $1 menu.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:38 | 2205962 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

As bad as that is, but Germany has not even a minimum wage.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:28 | 2205929 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Don't Tread on Me

Great words; 'bout time we heeded them again

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:29 | 2205932 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

agreed.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:29 | 2205933 falak pema
falak pema's picture

eurobanks are three times bigger than euro sovereigns; that just shows who runs the world and why Greece, Portugal are important, not as sheeple parks but as bank debt parks : to save the banks of europe>to save the banks of rest of world> to save the banks of pax americana and 38 T CDS + 650 T notional interest derivative pile of debts. Circular money line like snake eating tail. Enuff gas there to send us all to the moon. 

 

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:29 | 2205936 miltiadis
miltiadis's picture

Germany shouldn't be #1 European economy... But some like to sponsor these nations because they are afraid of Europeans... Better to sponsor a European country that hates Europe than to create military bases

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:05 | 2206069 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

"Germany shouldn't be #1 European economy"

Well, if you think Germany has gotten into that position by some sponsors, you're wrong. It's all about hard work and the will to sacrifice. They have to work longer (69 years), they don't get as much as they earned 10 years ago (Germany is the only country in the OECD that almost lost 5 % income; Japan is next with a 2 % income loss - all the other OECD nations raised income (at least according to their stats), you can be fired and hired like in the US, and more and more people only get contracts. There is no minimum wage. Work can start at 1 Euro per hour, 3 Euros in the Eastern part. The lowest income group has lost a staggering 22 % since the Euro introduction. And while people are unsatisfied, you don't see many strikes here in Germany (at least Fraport is...or better...was striking).  That's one side.

The other side is well known. We happen to have good companies and a history of inventing stuff and producing it. Our manufacturing is still existant, while others thought they wouldn't need that anymore and shipped everything to Asia (where we also happen to have factories).

Germany is not a perfect country of course and there is no need for arrogance as there are hundreds of problems within the country. Not speaking about the manipulated statistics (testeronepit hit the nail with his article).

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:21 | 2206121 miltiadis
miltiadis's picture

i am not going to argue on this ,I have arguments to back up my positition but i love that you didn't put hate words. 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 05:22 | 2207128 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

There is no reason for hate words as there is no reason for arrogance. I travelled to Greece twice. Not as tax officer, not as an occupier. Just as a kid with my parents. Rhodos. Athen. For half of my life I am an admirer of the Greek art, philosophy, history and theatre (especially Aischylos, Aristophanes, Phidias and Praxiteles, Xenophon). (And by saying that I do not claim that everything was perfect there.) Many of our modern words are of Greek origin. Many of our buildings use Greek architecture. Or just think how Greek mythology has influenced art and poetry in the whole Western world.

I don't think that Germans should interfere with Greek politics. The past two hundred years were difficult for Greece. I think that only Greek people can change their country. Given our recent (German) past I think that we should be more cautious about what we say and do. I can understand the fear of foreign countries and the mistrust.

The Greek people have invented the Agon. I think it is an integral part of capitalism. A bit of that ancient spirit would help your country. I am sure that it won't work until Greece is free of any debt and can restart. And it won't work if the Greek do not adress the failures that were made. As for the current EU I think it is a failure, too. I think it needs to be reformed and more democratic. Because this looks more and more like the nightmare we never wanted. There is a saying in German: Lieber ein Ende mit Schrecken als ein Schrecken ohne Ende. (something like: It's better to make a painful break than draw out the agony.)

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:47 | 2206318 jo6pac
jo6pac's picture

Thanks

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:13 | 2206098 Nussi34
Nussi34's picture

I see Greeks laying on the beach should be the #1 economy. But who will pay for their lunch?

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:32 | 2205944 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

WTF? 

Exclusive: Justice Department conducting criminal Libor probe

Reuters) - The Justice Department is conducting a criminal probe into whether the world's biggest banks manipulated a global benchmark rate, according to a person familiar with the situation.

While the Justice Department's inquiry into how the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, is set had been known, the criminal aspect of the probe was not. 

A criminal inquiry underscores the serious nature of a worldwide investigation that includes regulators and law-enforcement agencies in the United States, Japan, Canada and the UK.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:20 | 2206537 i-dog
i-dog's picture

 

"law-enforcement agencies in the United States, Japan, Canada and the UK"

They are all "captured". This will go nowhere.

 

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:33 | 2205953 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

I could easily precipitate the crisis by selling my gold and buying Apple. With my track record we'd have chaos by morning.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:06 | 2206071 bdc63
bdc63's picture

... its time for you to take one for the team ...

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:35 | 2205956 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

So many bubbles.

So many pricks .

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:38 | 2205964 chump666
chump666's picture

Europe is a confused mess.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:41 | 2205967 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Saw this movie. Gibson was good in it. Aussie accent was believable. Weaver still had baby fat - was sultry. Michael Murphy had the same hair cut he had in Tanner.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:39 | 2205968 falak pema
falak pema's picture

The bigger the danger the better the goose pimples. Don't eat your popcorn before the screaming end. 

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:41 | 2205969 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Johnny Dangerously--Crime Doesn't Pay  28 sec. video

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTq-Vden5SY&feature=related

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:42 | 2205983 bobola
bobola's picture

The Scadahuvians may be the last countries standing, with their high tax rates.  

Interesting that Santorum (look up the definition of his name) says he wants to lower taxes to jump start the economy.

Me thinks he want to lower taxes to buy votes....with our tax money....the bastage.......

 

 

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:52 | 2206020 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

So much for inflation, a quarter would buy you almost a gallon of gas in 1964.  http://www.1960sflashback.com/1964/economy.asp

A 1964 quarter will buy you almost 2 gallons of gas in at current prices.  http://www.coinflation.com/coins/silver_calc.php

I guess using precious metals as a hedge against inflation isn’t such a bad idea after all…

AC_Doctor

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 18:57 | 2206037 Chimerican
Chimerican's picture

The Marshall Plan was a waste. The euro trash up and went socialist. The U.S. should have let the Soviet Union have the whole continent. With the fall of communism, Europe would be in recovery mode now extolling the virtues of capitalism. 

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:00 | 2206526 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Wow, that post is just like walking into an antique store to look at a bunch of obsolete, discarded items which have become nothing more than things to display and reminice about.

I hope we can leave a lot of this antiquated thinking behind when this whole crap pile collapses in on itself.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:00 | 2206051 luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

But, what if you painted yourself into a corner?...

"Don' step here."

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:05 | 2206057 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

I beat him on the CDO Subprime call by 6 mths. And I called APPL and Silver in the first half of 2009. Should I manage money?

Not!

But the shit is gonna hit the fan big time when it finally hits.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:11 | 2206087 chump666
chump666's picture

As for a major stock market crash, probably start in Asia

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:27 | 2206133 CharlieSDT
CharlieSDT's picture

Why?

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:50 | 2206180 chump666
chump666's picture

History is repeating re:1987 crash from Wikipedia

: The crash began in Far Eastern markets the morning of October 19. Later that morning, two U.S. warships shelled an Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf in response to Iran's Silkworm missile attack on the U.S. flagged ship MV Sea Isle City

The correlation is stocks and bonds are all rallying despite climbing oil prices, an 'event' will trigger an unwind.  That and the VIX is trailing 1987 lows, markets have been leaking liquidity and now volumes are picking up.  Asia could be the primer and set it in motion.  Even something out of China could set it off.

Overall the oil price/Iran tensions (like 1987).  The bond market will 100% react to ECB inflation insanity/oil price.  Whole lot of factors. 

But overall...I am watching Asia for clues.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:52 | 2206185 chump666
chump666's picture

must not forget the HFTs.  The over-bidding on the risk FX crosses is frightening

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:27 | 2206268 shuckster
shuckster's picture

I too noticed Japan is a total mess - 1000% debpt/gdp - the Nikkei looking like a dead fish - and then China is seeing wage inflation (higher export prices, etc etc)

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:45 | 2206314 chump666
chump666's picture

The ECB got total reign of the market.  They bought everything, backstopped by German/IMF support.  That CB went rogue.  The oil price is representation of that.  The FED USD swaps is a QE3 in disguise.  China is printing, India is printing and now oil inflation is about to hit.  So far the markets don't want to think about it, but rather 'booking' it in as 'economic recovery'.

China has been quite, but we know something is lurking, net importers of oil (Iran) and living costs are probably blowing out.  The Yuan is selling and the Chinese are buying equities.  It's a spec bubble on a bubble that is deflating (housing).

And then there is Japan...

Lock in Asia to set it off http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WA-ox1qNryI

boom.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 21:02 | 2206351 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

I think it will start with Apple

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 21:35 | 2206431 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Check out recent IBM insider stock trading activity.....

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:17 | 2206528 chump666
chump666's picture

tight. 

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:07 | 2206504 chump666
chump666's picture

That is a good point.  Nasdaq bubble is on ( eveything is a bubble at the moment).  Tech could blow i.e Apple, that may start the crash.  Which if an after hr flashcrash/crash of AAPL takes place, will effect Asian markets on open.  I can roll with that. 

Could be soon.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:29 | 2206557 chump666
chump666's picture

Oh F*ck...China  = nasty awash with liquidity = inflation.  Our market sell on despite the butnut ECB LTRO thing?

from wires:

SYDNEY, Feb 29 (***) - The PBOC has set USD/CNY today at 6.2919, the lowest level (or highest yuan value) since the 2005 revaluation. This is lower than Tuesday's 6.2961 and last OTC close of 6.2990. This may be partly due to the excessive liquidity resulted from lower RRR taking effect last Friday, and recent rally of other currencies and EUR. 7-day repos plunged to 2.2%, a fresh low since May 2011. With this week's drain and low FX fixing, 7-day repos is last at 3.5%. More low fixings are expected to follow if the situation is not mitigated.

Asia is gonna load up on USDs again.  Inflation.

Shanghai blows out -1.00%, major warning sign.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:49 | 2206164 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

I agree.  What is America going to do when faced with Greecian style austerity measures?

We all know England has been printing, but for the Chanceller to announce England is broke last weekend is a straitforward and honest description of where they be.  This is something we have yet to come to grips with, admitting to ourselves we are broke and no longer continuing down this path

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:28 | 2206270 shuckster
shuckster's picture

If we are broke then why is the Dow at 13,000? Betcha can't explain that

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 21:46 | 2206459 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Pick me, pick me, ummm massive money printing and complete lack of the rule of law and the PTB want to fleece the suckers.. 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 02:27 | 2207034 shuckster
shuckster's picture

It was a joke - I know the Dow is a farce at this point - and has anyone ever taken the time to question the actual Dow and the other indexes? Are there gov't agents in the office at DJ looking over the shoulders of analysts these days? I wouldn't put anything passed them at this point

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:30 | 2206568 i-dog
i-dog's picture

The FTSE is also up 50% on 3 years ago. How do you explain that? The higher the market, the more broke you really are?

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:07 | 2206073 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

More wiping of the ass by Congress with the Constitution...

http://rt.com/usa/news/348-act-tresspass-buildings-437/

 

 

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:07 | 2206075 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Bye bye Germany. Looks like you lost the war. A-G-A-I-N !

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:11 | 2206092 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

2012...The Year of Lying Dangerously...

 

what I want to know is why Timmy was arrested? Did he violate his parole condition that requires him to staye 300 yds away from playgrounds? Or, was it something worse?

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:15 | 2206109 Nussi34
Nussi34's picture

Who will join me the day Greece will exit the EuroZone in front of the ECB? I will organize 100 liters of free Bavarian beer!

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:37 | 2206150 moonshadow
moonshadow's picture

when u wander around in the dark it's tough to know Where to step. and until we have world leaders that will allow the light of truth, u better not step here...or here...or here...

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:40 | 2206597 i-dog
i-dog's picture

You will never have "world leaders" that will allow the light of truth ... nor regional/empire leaders. Too many competing interests.

Only leaders of small nation states, looking after the interests of their own tribes and families, can afford such a luxury.

End the Central Planning experiments in Brussels and DC!!!

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 19:56 | 2206191 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Can see the Central Bankers now:

"You have a 20, sir"

"I have LTROs.....I also like to live dangerously"

Love that Austin Powers scene.  "Sir, you have a 5."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkzMA1jrm00

 

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:26 | 2206265 kill switch
Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:31 | 2206274 I am Jobe
Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:30 | 2206276 Meatballs
Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:46 | 2206315 Hugo Chavez
Hugo Chavez's picture

Look i would love to see this sucker go down as much as the rest of you wankers, but after a brief six month hiatus i am now levered and ling.

Spy vwo dgs slv gld. A little real estate, baseball cards, .....i hereby officially CAPITULATE!

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:48 | 2206317 Hugo Chavez
Hugo Chavez's picture

UH. THAT would be long, not ling.

Ling is my bitch's porn name.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 21:39 | 2206442 chump666
chump666's picture

that was funny.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 20:50 | 2206316 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Talk about living dangerous did you guys see the story this morning that was barely a mention anywhere. If Moody's cuts Morgan Stanley by 3 then MS says they will have to put up $6 billion in additional collateral.

 

Talk about the next US Lehman.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 21:07 | 2206361 HileTroy
HileTroy's picture

``Your heart will remain calm. Your adrenalin gland will remain calm. Calm, all-over calm. You will not panic. you will look at the fnord and see it. You will not evade it or black it out. you will stay calm and face it. FNORD

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 21:50 | 2206466 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

You called?  By the way, many here think this is some sort of command to others, ah no,  It is to keep me from ripping off someones face..   Chianti and fava beans mmm..

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 21:23 | 2206394 bigwavedave
bigwavedave's picture

You know the story of the Scorpion and the Frog? Well.... Your the Frog.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 21:57 | 2206484 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

I think the markets will be surprised, during the next few weeks

Like Isaac Asimov will tweet a revision to the Three Laws or something.. 

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:04 | 2206498 chinaboy
chinaboy's picture

It is nice to read post by an intelligent and honest Amercian.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:16 | 2206527 Hugo Chavez
Hugo Chavez's picture

Judge martin phone number is 717 240 7864
And 717 7664575.

He is now denying he is a muslum and says he is a lutheran. Eirher way is fine but i am surprised he is backtracking on his recorded statement rhat he is a muslum. Please call him and ask him politely why he ruled the way he did. Call every day politely and ask him to return ur call.

Fax numbwr is 717 766 2238

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:24 | 2206546 Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

the ECB is NOT yet the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States -

the US Fed turns $2.8 billion profit on AIG (Junk) Bonds -

Remember those pesky mortgage-backed securities the Federal Reserve had to take off AIG's hands at the worst of the financial crisis? The Fed just finished selling all of them, and their return on investment isn't too shabby. The sales of the $19.5 billion portfolio turned a $2.8 billion profit for taxpayers.The New York Fed first indicated last year that it would put the so-called Maiden Lane II securities up for auction.

The Fed sold off the first piece of the pie to Credit Suisse (CS) in January. Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) bought another chunk and Credit Suisse bought the remainder of the portfolio, announced today.

And just who is buying the assets from Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs ?

None other than AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) itself !

AIG's Chief Executive Bob Benmosche said Friday that the insurance giant had recently purchased
"just under $2 billion of the assets coming out of Maiden Lane II."

"Our crisis is over," he added.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/28/news/economy/fed_maiden_lane_aig/index.h...

By Annalyn Censky @CNNMoney  February 28, 2012: 7:04 PM ET

posted by wr;)

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:34 | 2206561 deflator
deflator's picture

This essay sounds like the guy next to me at the bar who says, "where is the safest place to put your money?" then goes on to say U.S. debt... ugh.

 My answer is, "why is the U.S. not the safest place"? The same reason Africa isn't. What they mean by buying selective municipal debt for safety in the U.S. means buying municipal debt in municipalities that are not controlled by Africans. Not the easiest thing to do in the U.S.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:59 | 2206660 chindit13
chindit13's picture

If past is prologue, then.....

First, some history.

Equity holders were shown to have no rights whatsoever during the weekend sale of Bear Stearns to JPM, a deal engineered by Jamie Dimon in his capacity as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the New York Fed to Jamie Dimon, in his capacity as CEO of JPM.  Just to make sure all was above board, the deal was supervised by NY Fed Governor Tim Geithner.

Corporate bondholders were shown to have no rights whatsoever when Car Tsar Steve Rattner decided that holders of junior subordinated Chrysler debt were senior to senior unsubordinated Chrysler bondholders.  That Rattner held a position in the junior debt may have had some influence.  That he threatened to sick the IRS on "you and every investor in your hedge fund" was not deemed to have been an abuse of position.  A scant few months into his public service career, after receiving the main benefit that comes from the private-public revolving door (tax free cashing out of accumulated fund profits), Rattner denied the public his wisdom and tireless service by returning to the private sector.

Sovereign bondholders were shown to have no rights whatsoever when Greece and the Troika decided Greece could cram down retroactive CACs on Greek Law bonds, setting the hurdle rate at whatever it needed to be to achieve "voluntary" compliance with the restructuring.

Since Dimon-Bear Stearns, equity markets have soared.

Since Rattner-Chrysler, corporate bond markets have soared.

Since retro-CACs were first discussed, European sovereign debt has soared.

Elsewhere, the ECB has taken over the mantel as the world's fastest printer, outpacing Bernanke and even China.  Not including yesterday/today's LTRO, the ECB balance sheet has grown by 40% since June 2011.

The euro has jumped from 1.26 to almost 1.35 in a few months while this printing has gone into overdrive.

The perceived safest banking systems in Europe---Germany and Switzerland---are the two with far and away the greatest leverage (Germany's is twice that of Spain and Italy, Switzerland's is three times those two little piglets).

On March 1st we will learn if 75% crammed down voluntary haircuts, coupon alterations, term alterations, and principle alterations constitute a "default event", or merely a minor misunderstanding amongst friends easily assuaged by browbeating and threats.  Those having the authority to make the ruling just happen to be those who would have the most to lose if an event was determined to have taken place.  Somewhat suprisingly, even presumably astute investors such as Kyle Bass and David Einhorn were, or remain, owners of these instruments, obviously purchased without first understanding the terms under which they would pay off.  Apparently they forgot the words of former President Reagan, "Trust, but verify".

So whither the CDS market if no "event" is deemed to have taken place?

If past is prologue, the CDS market will only become larger.

To be logical is to live dangerously.  To have one's mind riddled with facts and figures, or to spend more than a passing moment on Zerohedge, is to live dangerously.  To believe in fairness is, in addition to being quaintly naive, to live dangerously.  To believe in rule of law is to live dangerously.  To be anything less than one with paid access to the halls of power is to live dangerously.

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 05:52 | 2207151 Sisyphus
Sisyphus's picture

Poetry!!

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:09 | 2206690 realtick
realtick's picture

Morgan Stanley Is The Rosetta Brick - Part 2

http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/02/morgan-stanley-...

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:19 | 2206981 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

" More than 160 German “financial services executives” (i.e. tax collectors) are preparing to go to Greece in order to “strengthen the Greek tax mechanism,” according to a report published in the German magazine Wirtschafts Woche."

Expect full cooperation from a country whose national sport is tax "avoidance" and wrestling.

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