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2012 - The Year Of Living Dangerously
Submitted by Mark Grant author of the "Out of the Box" financial commentary
2012 - The Year Of Living Dangerously
It is a curious world that we live in these days. America bumping along, China grinding down, Europe gaming the system, bonds trading off Treasuries compressing significantly, equities buoyed by new cash and the dearth of decent places to put capital and a risk factor that increases with each ratchet up of the great European pyramid scheme. It was on January 13, 2010 that I said Greece would default and yesterday S&P placed them in default which was so widely expected that the market yawned and turned its attention to the coming European LTRO. I think the markets will be surprised, during the next few weeks, with the consequences of the Greek default but that remains to be seen. In the meantime, despite the ECB’s open spigot, one of the major banks in Austria needed to be recapitalized yesterday with Austria not only injecting new capital but taking an almost one billion dollar hit.
We are living in a world these days of semi-transparent “knowns” and great “unknowns” that provide a complexity for investing far past any normal scenario. Not only could the markets be turned on the proverbial dime but they could be violently ratcheted down the cliffs of Dover by any number of possible and not outlier events. Knowing about something and understanding the intended and unintended consequences are two different turns of the screw. As the last several years have unfolded I have noted a progress of events where markets rally on manufactured headlines, calm down and then react negatively as the entire story is understood. A pattern has developed in fact which is why I point out the grave dangers lurking now in the Great Game and why I continue to advise caution and cash as we veer off the bumpers in some strange pinball game that sometimes seems to have been mechanized by some hallucinating artist such as Salvador Dali. Europe continues to just barely pull the cat out of the hat but I shudder at the consequences when the trickery no longer produces the desired effects and the audience catches on to the magician’s deceit.
You will recall the days leading into the sub-prime meltdown; easy money, loans without documentation, a massive leveraging up of assets and then the crack in the Earth’s surface and the abyss that we faced. When I regard Europe these days I see a repeat of this cycle which now involves sovereign credits and European banks and easy money and loans without documentation and a massive leveraging up of assets and liabilities with unhampered capital provided by the printing presses at the European Central Bank. The similarities are there for all of us that would like to stop and look, which clearly is not many, but then that was also the case during the heady days of the subprime funding madness. First it was Greece and then Ireland and Portugal and now Spain is sinking into the quicksand and asking for better terms so it doesn’t have to plunge into even greater fiscal controls and austerity measures and the pressures on the fault lines are increasing dramatically in my opinion.
I point specifically to the reasons for my increasing concern; the European banks are three times larger than the European sovereigns, the ECB is not the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, the leading economy in Europe, Germany, is 22% of the economy of America, that there are ever and always consequences for providing free money, that Europe is in a recession and it will be much deeper than thought by many in my view, that the demanded austerity measures are unquestionably worsening the recession and increasing unemployment, that nations become much more self-centered when their economies are contracting and that the more protracted all of this is; the more pronounced Newton’s reaction will be when the pendulum reverses course.
Now I am quite used to being ballyhooed. It was on December 27, 2007 when I identified the risks of subprime mortgages and CDO’s, my early call on Greece was when their ten year yield 4.38% and while perhaps not of giant intellect I am a reasonably good sleuth. I tout nothing but I warn plenty in an effort to keep all of you out of some gaping hole that is squarely in front of the path that we are taking. It is not gloom and doom that I pull around like Pig Pen’s black cloud but a giant warning sign that I plant firmly in the ground which says, “Don’t step here.” Today I point at Europe and intone once again, “Don‘t step here.”
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Just checked on mah stash, just looks shiny, not dangerous.
This is getting boring... Although in six months, my guess is that we'll all long to go back to this calm before the storm.
There are no brakes left and the Aliens have yet to reveal themselves as our 11th hour benefactors.
A drop of water drips on stone... It may not look like much, but eventually the stone cracks in half... Drip by drip the fingers of instability are forming within the stone, and eventually it will break - we've passed the point of no return and things are going to get far worse before they get better - the darkest hour precedes the dawn!! I'm not sure if even our gold hoarding, gun toting, food storing, ZH readers will be safe!!
Timothy Geithner arrested and released?
http://www.lsnewsgroup.com/2012/02/27/was-treasury-secretary-arrested-questioned-released/
Apologize for OT.
So Mr. Geithner. We've got a stack of evidence you've been evading taxes.
TIMMEH
You're going to have to talk to us, Mr. Geithner.
TIMMEH
Please, you need to co-operate with us. Then you can get back to saving Europe.
TIMMMMMMMEEEEEEEEEHHHHHHHHHH.
The food stamp program, part of the Department of Agriculture, is pleased to be distributing the greatest amount of food stamps ever.
Meanwhile, the Forest Service, also part of the Department of Agriculture, asks us to "please do not feed the animals" because the animals may grow dependent and not learn to take care of themselves.
USA doesn't need SNAP anymore. Feed the slaves the remains of the false flag/war victims instead of wasting them...
"Some human remains recovered from the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the Pentagon and in Shanksville, Pa., were incinerated and dumped in a landfill"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/portions-of-911-victims-remains-t...
MMMMMMM, soylent slaves! Let's Roll Retards!
Where's Ms. Moneypenny...I have some danger for her.
Too funny and very sadly true
Yes it is sad to see how some folks on ZH are thoroughly brainwashed by big money and intoxicated with greed. These poor idiots dont know that independence cannot exist (especially for individual humans). They fail to see that free markets cannot exist as they imagine. But keep insisting on this religion. Even Tyler himself does that. From article to article "markets are being spoiled by evil doers and "central planners"". What a sick joke. Not being able to understand that free market cannot exist outside single, medieval, peaceful, resource rich village of no more than 500 people who know each other. Whole history is history of "free markets" and we know how that went. There can be no independence or free market contained solely within economic sphere.
As if Nazi Germany, then the Soviet Union, then North Korea weren't enough of an example of the follies of Central Planning™, along comes the EU to finally prove the stupidity of it.
goat meets boy
TIMMAY!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TloqFIEZJ6E
This was first reported on benjamin fulford's blog last monday.I do'nt think Fulford is an NWO agent.
I think Fulford is being "handled" (fed bullshit via elaborate theater) by the CIA.
And who is that weird Judo guy with him? Supposed to be Yakuza? Doesn't he know about the Tepco - Yakuza connection?
No idea, I read him for entertainment.
It just doesn't wash. Why would this super-secret super-rich cabal use *that* guy to disseminate information? And on what looks like public access TV?
Limerick King, meet Cliché King…
/friendly ball busting
I am just thinking that if she blows before the elections, (pehaps by design) O'Bummer may declare marshal law and pull a Hugo Chavez on American people. Then what?
Your thoughts zerohedgers!
Many on here have speculated the very same thing. Seen it many times.
As for 'then what?'... Then we see what happens when 300 million firearms find their way into 600,000 VERY pissed off hands.
We love living dangerously.
Good a place as any to put in this fabulous link that "nuinut" put in another thread. Iran, oil, and gold.
It is an easy to digest chunk of "Freegold", namely the first logical explanation of how Iran could entice other nations to pay for crude with physical gold. By offering to take much less gold than the current "paper price" would imply. Must reading, outstanding piece.
http://www.asymptotix.eu/news/gold-market-de-and-re-constructed-radical-forward-look-peter-trzaska
Do Chen, long time no talk. How about this:
Maybe that's why Geithner was arrested.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzFsMZd9MOU&feature=related
http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/Player.aspx?meetingId=10093&wfs=true&player=smooth
Fast forward the thing to 17:20 where Lord Blackheath speaks and notice the attendance then and listen then for the next 11 minutes.
http://sirratatap.com/category/banking/2-19-12-corrupt-banking-at-the-highest-levels/
?This is the transcript with commentary
As bizarre a story as the confiscated bonds in the Italian/Swiss border
Just in case, I am dedicating the next paycheck to gold maples
Then what?
property values will skyrocket in Nunavut from sudden influx of tanned refugees
The fat, apathetic slaves will continue to self-medicate on whichever anti-depressant or anti-anxiety(really, anti-reality) drugs are stuffed down their petulant throats. They will continue to watch American Idle and ESPN until there is nothing left to rape, pillage, and plunder.
In short, nothing will happen.
ah.....take out delivery service is gonna take a beatin'
The reason the problems can't be solved and everything is being deferred is that the worldwide labor glut and prevailing competitive wage is $25/day w/o benefits (Foxconn)where workers are forced to labor 12 hours/day, 6 days per week and live like animals in 20 man/woman dorm rooms. Compared to the US/EU/UK lifestyles of insane blogging, twitting, TMZing we can't ever be competitive. So the West buys domestic peace with ever increasing deficits and debt. Yes, there are big problems ahead. But Corp profits will continue to increase as long as the West increases deficits on a increasing compounding basis. Gold and silver prices reflect that reality. So equities will likely reach all time highs before the election based on phony economic stats and record deficits. 2013 when spending is reduced and individual taxes increase will cause the big selloff. However, no one knows how much debt can and will be issued. Perhaps $5 tillion FED and ECB balance sheets will be seen in 2013. The downside is so bad no one will let it happen??
There is no such thing as "safe", it is an illusory feeling. I dont want to be safe, I want the Constitution and equality under the law. Fuck this fascist sham of a Republic. I hope DC sinks in the swamp, and Manhattan slips into the sea.
Next time you see a banker or politician, take a tire iron and hittem in the face.
Crab Cake! Good seeing you around these parts.
Always around I just dont talk much anymore, theres not much point. Nobody is ever going to stand up, and if they do they wont be heard and will be labelled "fringe" or "terrorist".
The depths of disillusion....
We're all terrorists now.
+1
Boring - told you so. It's a silver squeeze. JPM finally crashed? Or storm in teacup? My guess.
Buddy, that's the govs trump card.....aliens
It will be *faked* invasion.
http://www.wimp.com/throughoutalberta/
says it all
american anti-depressant usage represents 66% of total global consumption, in children as young as 4 years old, anti-depressant use is at 10%
and if you dont take any dont worry, it's in the water table and the food chain.
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/WhyAmer
..you mean to tell me I have been paying for this stuff and I did not need to?
Ha ha! Free drugs!
Yeah! And don't forget to ask the kids at that Ohio school, VT, and Columbine, among others, how them anti-depressants work out....
lol just drink tap water man ...works for me!.....nsa 17 million sq feet 1.7 billion domestic emails and phone calls intercepted and read every single day....lmao...let's keep voting!
...they can't filter for it yet or mediate yet, so it gets recycled lol weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! they're mostly petroleum based ....hahahahhaha what a stupid waste of a species we are....
This is your last comment then or..
...stay tuned for the ten o'clock news.
Ha! I grow my own food and drink water from my own well... that explains why the doctor increased my dosages.
Mine is dangerous, it wants me to go boating with it!
So one part of Europe - 22% of it, looks better and german and one part of it - 2% of it, looks worse and greek. So? You have at least to invoke a Domino Effect to make sense out of it. Or is the US of A homogenuos?
Which leads to how five companies are befuzzling the whole world with the derivatives paper casino scam. Which brings the fiat currencies to an earlier senescence.
BAN CDS
<insert>Jubilee!</insert>
I must be missing something as Germany is up to its neck in debt also and just whom is going to buy their exports in this environment?
Declaration of War on the United States Government.
We don't want to destroy government. We want to fix it.
TRANSCRIPT
____________
To the Citizens of the United States and the United States Government.
We are Anonymous.
In the past few months, our collective has been organizing the operation known as Operation Blackout. Part of the operation's purpose was to alert the people of the coming bill that was to be called the Stop Online Piracy Act.
This Act would give Congress the power to censor any internet website they wish without consent from the Citizens of the United States. This act would've also had the power to jail any person who infringed on its new copyright law for an equivalence of five years. This copyright law would've had the power to destroy social networking sites such as Facebook and YouTube. Video gameplay and free movies would cease to exist.
However, Operation Blackout was a success. As a collective, we've managed to spread the word and alert the masses. Internet giants such as Google, Wikipedia, and Reddit became hand-in-hand with us as we all managed to make an impact on the decisions of our, "free government". But as we've seen with Megaupload, the government may not need a bill to be passed to get their way. Other operations we've conducted over this time period have awaken the people to the nightmare that is the United States Government. Sections 1031 and 1032 of the National Defense Authorization Act have been ratified. Yet we face new threats.
The United States Government is seeking to pass the Cyber Security Act of 2012. This act is as Orwellian as it sounds; it will endanger our collective and we will not stand by and watch while this government of lies prepares to take away our freedoms. The National Security Agency insists on labeling us as a leaderless, terrorist organization. The question is, "who do we terrorize?". Can it possibly be that the United States government is truly scared of us? Nevertheless, The time for action is now.
Our collective has realized, along with many United States citizens, that the current government is no longer functional. Our economy is unstable, our representatives uncooperative, and our system, destroyed.
We are not calling upon the collective to deface or use a distributed denial of service attack on a United States government agency website or affiliate. We are not calling upon the people to occupy a city or protest in front of a local building. This has not brought on us any legislative change or alternate law. It has only brought us bloodshed and false criticism. For the last 12 years, voting was useless. Corporations and lobbyists are the true leaders of this country and are the ones with the power to control our lives. To rebuild our government, we must first destroy it.
Our time for democracy is here.
Our time for real change is here.
This is America's time, to have its own revolution.
Therefore, Anonymous has decided to openly declare war on the United States government. This is a call to arms. We call upon the Citizens of the United States to stand beside us in overthrowing this corrupted body and call upon a new era. Our allegiance is to the American people, because they are us, and we are them.
Operation V, engaged.
We are Anonymous.
We are Americans.
We never Forgive.
We never Forget.
To the United States government, it's too late to expect us.
REVOLUTION is here.
twitter.com/theanonmessage
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAaCZWQndqA&feature=player_embedded
May Day 2012. Beware.
EDIT: March 8 is the day FBI will try to shut down the internet. March 31 is DNS root server attack day.
Are you familiar with mesh networks? Do you have the ability to use dial-up access? Have you prepared a list of IPs to connect to in case of DNS assault? Time is short.
178.209.48.14 zerohedge
95.143.193.148 survivalblog
98.158.27.203 Drudge
74.63.40.16 the blaze
Edit: Copy and paste the number into your browser just like you would a domain name.
Thanks! Copied and pasted. To be emailed.
Another + 1
TOR Browser
Thanks. For the addresses and the reminder that I ought to have this covered as well.
I'd probably watch out for 3-22-12 as well. Skulls and Bones Flase Flag day too.
The Order
The name Scull and Bones gave themselves over 150 years ago.
The Order- 322
322 comes from the Spring solstice, when the darkness moves into the light. The Order is waiting for the Dawn of the New Day. Now that all world Central Banks have their interest rates tied at their hips, they are prepared for this sun splash.
End the Order
March 8 eh?
Purim AND a full moon. . . handy.
@ Chupacabra - the vernal equinox can vary by "date" as it is the point when the Sun moves into zero degrees Aries.
this year it's 10:15pm Pacific, 19March, 1:15am Eastern, ect. . .
but I do realise that multiples of "11" are *cough* revered, as in 11, 22, 33. . .
The above seems to be evidence that 'Anonymous' is sometimes a CIA tool, as the 'Anonymous' piece above claims:
« ... Internet giants such as Google, Wikipedia, and Reddit became hand-in-hand with us ... »
Most every computer geek in the world knows that Google and Wikipedia are both CIA companies, originally funded by the CIA.
Google censors and manipulates search results to hide crimes of the US regime, and Google's CIA sister, Wikipedia, fills the internet with lies for the sheeple, on the 5% or 10% of topics important to CIA and Mossad.
Here's where I took my avatar from, and also shows Google at work censoring the global internet:
Live Photo: Google Inc. Caught Censoring EU Search Results about US court corruption
Google Internet Censorship - Censure d'Internet par Google - Internet censuur door Google
http://www.flickr.com/photos/22325431@N05/6100668211/in/photostream
'Ex-Agent: CIA Seed Money Helped Launch Google', retired intelligence agent Robert David Steele interviewed by Paul Joseph Watson, and speaking of the CIA's Dr Rick Steinheiser and his connections with Google:
http://www.infowars.com/articles/bb/google_cia_seed_money_launched_googl...
Jimmy Wales of Wikipedia is a mafia former porn king involved in harming children, and his Wikipedia 'hive' team have known criminal backgrounds and involvements ... their willingness to spread lies to murder is why the US-CIA hired them as the Wikipedia 'team' ... Wikipedia is designed so the CIA and Mossad agents and corporate criminals can be 'anonymous' while planting bullsh*t there.
Current EU case re Wikipedia and Google in the attack on Europe, trying to murder European citizens criticising the USA:
Report to the EU Parliament and the Commission of the European Union
Anti-Competition Crimes of EU Internet Monopoly Google Inc. (with CIA) and Wikipedia (with CIA), to Erase EU Journalism, to Slander and Murder EU - Polish Citizen, Writer, Journalist, Non-Zionist Jew, and Harvard graduate
http://www.indymedia.nl/nl/2011/07/77181.shtml
Original in pdf format:
http://eureportsnonzionistjews.hostfile.nl/file/0zndj5ea3v/410/nzjd-eu-r...
Isn't this the group that said they were going to wipe out the Greek debt if the IMF didn't withdraw? What happened to that?
Maybe our necessary and expedient anti terrorist laws prevented this from happening................
/sarc
What are your kids going to say when they find out you spent their college funds on a handfull of metal coins?
I've got the same sign on my property perimeter.
All's quiet on the western front...
So, he thinks Europe is going to blow apart? What incredible insight.
Who could have guessed? Crap, I think I'll have to cancel my Mediterranean Cruise on the Costa Concordia.
Naw, just exchange it for tickets to sail the Indian Ocean with them.
Traduced, he thinks the ECB will not lend enough?
Pleeeaaaasssseee, lets get this show on the road!
Amen to that. I am SO over all of this ...
Newton's going to have a few more theorems to prove when this AAPL falls.
I'm guessing if AAPL comes out with another "Newton" it will damn well fall...
how about the year of living suicidal?
THE HUNGARIAN SUICIDE SONG
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WBZwLkvpFI
Marche Funebre...
Just heard on CNBS among other things that Greece will be voting to lower the minimum wage by 32%. Wow.
Time to open up a Big Lots that sells Molotov Cocktails...
Or put them on the McDonalds $1 menu.
As bad as that is, but Germany has not even a minimum wage.
Don't Tread on Me
Great words; 'bout time we heeded them again
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIHuF8WvdFk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRBz2VbSN8g&feature=related
agreed.
eurobanks are three times bigger than euro sovereigns; that just shows who runs the world and why Greece, Portugal are important, not as sheeple parks but as bank debt parks : to save the banks of europe>to save the banks of rest of world> to save the banks of pax americana and 38 T CDS + 650 T notional interest derivative pile of debts. Circular money line like snake eating tail. Enuff gas there to send us all to the moon.
Germany shouldn't be #1 European economy... But some like to sponsor these nations because they are afraid of Europeans... Better to sponsor a European country that hates Europe than to create military bases
"Germany shouldn't be #1 European economy"
Well, if you think Germany has gotten into that position by some sponsors, you're wrong. It's all about hard work and the will to sacrifice. They have to work longer (69 years), they don't get as much as they earned 10 years ago (Germany is the only country in the OECD that almost lost 5 % income; Japan is next with a 2 % income loss - all the other OECD nations raised income (at least according to their stats), you can be fired and hired like in the US, and more and more people only get contracts. There is no minimum wage. Work can start at 1 Euro per hour, 3 Euros in the Eastern part. The lowest income group has lost a staggering 22 % since the Euro introduction. And while people are unsatisfied, you don't see many strikes here in Germany (at least Fraport is...or better...was striking). That's one side.
The other side is well known. We happen to have good companies and a history of inventing stuff and producing it. Our manufacturing is still existant, while others thought they wouldn't need that anymore and shipped everything to Asia (where we also happen to have factories).
Germany is not a perfect country of course and there is no need for arrogance as there are hundreds of problems within the country. Not speaking about the manipulated statistics (testeronepit hit the nail with his article).
i am not going to argue on this ,I have arguments to back up my positition but i love that you didn't put hate words.
There is no reason for hate words as there is no reason for arrogance. I travelled to Greece twice. Not as tax officer, not as an occupier. Just as a kid with my parents. Rhodos. Athen. For half of my life I am an admirer of the Greek art, philosophy, history and theatre (especially Aischylos, Aristophanes, Phidias and Praxiteles, Xenophon). (And by saying that I do not claim that everything was perfect there.) Many of our modern words are of Greek origin. Many of our buildings use Greek architecture. Or just think how Greek mythology has influenced art and poetry in the whole Western world.
I don't think that Germans should interfere with Greek politics. The past two hundred years were difficult for Greece. I think that only Greek people can change their country. Given our recent (German) past I think that we should be more cautious about what we say and do. I can understand the fear of foreign countries and the mistrust.
The Greek people have invented the Agon. I think it is an integral part of capitalism. A bit of that ancient spirit would help your country. I am sure that it won't work until Greece is free of any debt and can restart. And it won't work if the Greek do not adress the failures that were made. As for the current EU I think it is a failure, too. I think it needs to be reformed and more democratic. Because this looks more and more like the nightmare we never wanted. There is a saying in German: Lieber ein Ende mit Schrecken als ein Schrecken ohne Ende. (something like: It's better to make a painful break than draw out the agony.)
Thanks
I see Greeks laying on the beach should be the #1 economy. But who will pay for their lunch?
WTF?
Exclusive: Justice Department conducting criminal Libor probe
Reuters) - The Justice Department is conducting a criminal probe into whether the world's biggest banks manipulated a global benchmark rate, according to a person familiar with the situation.
While the Justice Department's inquiry into how the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, is set had been known, the criminal aspect of the probe was not.
A criminal inquiry underscores the serious nature of a worldwide investigation that includes regulators and law-enforcement agencies in the United States, Japan, Canada and the UK.
They are all "captured". This will go nowhere.
I could easily precipitate the crisis by selling my gold and buying Apple. With my track record we'd have chaos by morning.
... its time for you to take one for the team ...
So many bubbles.
So many pricks .
Europe is a confused mess.
Saw this movie. Gibson was good in it. Aussie accent was believable. Weaver still had baby fat - was sultry. Michael Murphy had the same hair cut he had in Tanner.
The bigger the danger the better the goose pimples. Don't eat your popcorn before the screaming end.
Johnny Dangerously--Crime Doesn't Pay 28 sec. video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTq-Vden5SY&feature=related
The Scadahuvians may be the last countries standing, with their high tax rates.
Interesting that Santorum (look up the definition of his name) says he wants to lower taxes to jump start the economy.
Me thinks he want to lower taxes to buy votes....with our tax money....the bastage.......
So much for inflation, a quarter would buy you almost a gallon of gas in 1964. http://www.1960sflashback.com/1964/economy.asp
A 1964 quarter will buy you almost 2 gallons of gas in at current prices. http://www.coinflation.com/coins/silver_calc.php
I guess using precious metals as a hedge against inflation isn’t such a bad idea after all…
AC_Doctor
The Marshall Plan was a waste. The euro trash up and went socialist. The U.S. should have let the Soviet Union have the whole continent. With the fall of communism, Europe would be in recovery mode now extolling the virtues of capitalism.
Wow, that post is just like walking into an antique store to look at a bunch of obsolete, discarded items which have become nothing more than things to display and reminice about.
I hope we can leave a lot of this antiquated thinking behind when this whole crap pile collapses in on itself.
But, what if you painted yourself into a corner?...
"Don' step here."
I beat him on the CDO Subprime call by 6 mths. And I called APPL and Silver in the first half of 2009. Should I manage money?
Not!
But the shit is gonna hit the fan big time when it finally hits.
As for a major stock market crash, probably start in Asia
Why?
History is repeating re:1987 crash from Wikipedia
: The crash began in Far Eastern markets the morning of October 19. Later that morning, two U.S. warships shelled an Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf in response to Iran's Silkworm missile attack on the U.S. flagged ship MV Sea Isle City
The correlation is stocks and bonds are all rallying despite climbing oil prices, an 'event' will trigger an unwind. That and the VIX is trailing 1987 lows, markets have been leaking liquidity and now volumes are picking up. Asia could be the primer and set it in motion. Even something out of China could set it off.
Overall the oil price/Iran tensions (like 1987). The bond market will 100% react to ECB inflation insanity/oil price. Whole lot of factors.
But overall...I am watching Asia for clues.
must not forget the HFTs. The over-bidding on the risk FX crosses is frightening
I too noticed Japan is a total mess - 1000% debpt/gdp - the Nikkei looking like a dead fish - and then China is seeing wage inflation (higher export prices, etc etc)
The ECB got total reign of the market. They bought everything, backstopped by German/IMF support. That CB went rogue. The oil price is representation of that. The FED USD swaps is a QE3 in disguise. China is printing, India is printing and now oil inflation is about to hit. So far the markets don't want to think about it, but rather 'booking' it in as 'economic recovery'.
China has been quite, but we know something is lurking, net importers of oil (Iran) and living costs are probably blowing out. The Yuan is selling and the Chinese are buying equities. It's a spec bubble on a bubble that is deflating (housing).
And then there is Japan...
Lock in Asia to set it off http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WA-ox1qNryI
boom.
I think it will start with Apple
Check out recent IBM insider stock trading activity.....
tight.
That is a good point. Nasdaq bubble is on ( eveything is a bubble at the moment). Tech could blow i.e Apple, that may start the crash. Which if an after hr flashcrash/crash of AAPL takes place, will effect Asian markets on open. I can roll with that.
Could be soon.
Oh F*ck...China = nasty awash with liquidity = inflation. Our market sell on despite the butnut ECB LTRO thing?
from wires:
SYDNEY, Feb 29 (***) - The PBOC has set USD/CNY today at 6.2919, the lowest level (or highest yuan value) since the 2005 revaluation. This is lower than Tuesday's 6.2961 and last OTC close of 6.2990. This may be partly due to the excessive liquidity resulted from lower RRR taking effect last Friday, and recent rally of other currencies and EUR. 7-day repos plunged to 2.2%, a fresh low since May 2011. With this week's drain and low FX fixing, 7-day repos is last at 3.5%. More low fixings are expected to follow if the situation is not mitigated.
Asia is gonna load up on USDs again. Inflation.
Shanghai blows out -1.00%, major warning sign.
I agree. What is America going to do when faced with Greecian style austerity measures?
We all know England has been printing, but for the Chanceller to announce England is broke last weekend is a straitforward and honest description of where they be. This is something we have yet to come to grips with, admitting to ourselves we are broke and no longer continuing down this path
If we are broke then why is the Dow at 13,000? Betcha can't explain that
Pick me, pick me, ummm massive money printing and complete lack of the rule of law and the PTB want to fleece the suckers..
It was a joke - I know the Dow is a farce at this point - and has anyone ever taken the time to question the actual Dow and the other indexes? Are there gov't agents in the office at DJ looking over the shoulders of analysts these days? I wouldn't put anything passed them at this point
The FTSE is also up 50% on 3 years ago. How do you explain that? The higher the market, the more broke you really are?
More wiping of the ass by Congress with the Constitution...
http://rt.com/usa/news/348-act-tresspass-buildings-437/
Bye bye Germany. Looks like you lost the war. A-G-A-I-N !
2012...The Year of Lying Dangerously...
what I want to know is why Timmy was arrested? Did he violate his parole condition that requires him to staye 300 yds away from playgrounds? Or, was it something worse?
Who will join me the day Greece will exit the EuroZone in front of the ECB? I will organize 100 liters of free Bavarian beer!
when u wander around in the dark it's tough to know Where to step. and until we have world leaders that will allow the light of truth, u better not step here...or here...or here...
You will never have "world leaders" that will allow the light of truth ... nor regional/empire leaders. Too many competing interests.
Only leaders of small nation states, looking after the interests of their own tribes and families, can afford such a luxury.
End the Central Planning experiments in Brussels and DC!!!
Can see the Central Bankers now:
"You have a 20, sir"
"I have LTROs.....I also like to live dangerously"
Love that Austin Powers scene. "Sir, you have a 5."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkzMA1jrm00
http://betterbadnews.com/
JPMorgan Clients With Under $100K Unprofitable
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-28/jpmorgan-views-clients-with-les...
Great deal on Greece getaway- (not kidding) HA!
http://www.groupon.com/ch/getaways/deals/ga-m-hotel-mikro-village?c=all?p=42
Look i would love to see this sucker go down as much as the rest of you wankers, but after a brief six month hiatus i am now levered and ling.
Spy vwo dgs slv gld. A little real estate, baseball cards, .....i hereby officially CAPITULATE!
UH. THAT would be long, not ling.
Ling is my bitch's porn name.
that was funny.
Talk about living dangerous did you guys see the story this morning that was barely a mention anywhere. If Moody's cuts Morgan Stanley by 3 then MS says they will have to put up $6 billion in additional collateral.
Talk about the next US Lehman.
``Your heart will remain calm. Your adrenalin gland will remain calm. Calm, all-over calm. You will not panic. you will look at the fnord and see it. You will not evade it or black it out. you will stay calm and face it. FNORD
You called? By the way, many here think this is some sort of command to others, ah no, It is to keep me from ripping off someones face.. Chianti and fava beans mmm..
You know the story of the Scorpion and the Frog? Well.... Your the Frog.
I think the markets will be surprised, during the next few weeks
Like Isaac Asimov will tweet a revision to the Three Laws or something..
It is nice to read post by an intelligent and honest Amercian.
Judge martin phone number is 717 240 7864
And 717 7664575.
He is now denying he is a muslum and says he is a lutheran. Eirher way is fine but i am surprised he is backtracking on his recorded statement rhat he is a muslum. Please call him and ask him politely why he ruled the way he did. Call every day politely and ask him to return ur call.
Fax numbwr is 717 766 2238
the ECB is NOT yet the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States -
the US Fed turns $2.8 billion profit on AIG (Junk) Bonds -
Remember those pesky mortgage-backed securities the Federal Reserve had to take off AIG's hands at the worst of the financial crisis? The Fed just finished selling all of them, and their return on investment isn't too shabby. The sales of the $19.5 billion portfolio turned a $2.8 billion profit for taxpayers.The New York Fed first indicated last year that it would put the so-called Maiden Lane II securities up for auction.
The Fed sold off the first piece of the pie to Credit Suisse (CS) in January. Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) bought another chunk and Credit Suisse bought the remainder of the portfolio, announced today.
And just who is buying the assets from Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs ?
None other than AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) itself !
AIG's Chief Executive Bob Benmosche said Friday that the insurance giant had recently purchased
"just under $2 billion of the assets coming out of Maiden Lane II."
"Our crisis is over," he added.
http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/28/news/economy/fed_maiden_lane_aig/index.h...
By Annalyn Censky @CNNMoney February 28, 2012: 7:04 PM ET
posted by wr;)
This essay sounds like the guy next to me at the bar who says, "where is the safest place to put your money?" then goes on to say U.S. debt... ugh.
My answer is, "why is the U.S. not the safest place"? The same reason Africa isn't. What they mean by buying selective municipal debt for safety in the U.S. means buying municipal debt in municipalities that are not controlled by Africans. Not the easiest thing to do in the U.S.
If past is prologue, then.....
First, some history.
Equity holders were shown to have no rights whatsoever during the weekend sale of Bear Stearns to JPM, a deal engineered by Jamie Dimon in his capacity as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the New York Fed to Jamie Dimon, in his capacity as CEO of JPM. Just to make sure all was above board, the deal was supervised by NY Fed Governor Tim Geithner.
Corporate bondholders were shown to have no rights whatsoever when Car Tsar Steve Rattner decided that holders of junior subordinated Chrysler debt were senior to senior unsubordinated Chrysler bondholders. That Rattner held a position in the junior debt may have had some influence. That he threatened to sick the IRS on "you and every investor in your hedge fund" was not deemed to have been an abuse of position. A scant few months into his public service career, after receiving the main benefit that comes from the private-public revolving door (tax free cashing out of accumulated fund profits), Rattner denied the public his wisdom and tireless service by returning to the private sector.
Sovereign bondholders were shown to have no rights whatsoever when Greece and the Troika decided Greece could cram down retroactive CACs on Greek Law bonds, setting the hurdle rate at whatever it needed to be to achieve "voluntary" compliance with the restructuring.
Since Dimon-Bear Stearns, equity markets have soared.
Since Rattner-Chrysler, corporate bond markets have soared.
Since retro-CACs were first discussed, European sovereign debt has soared.
Elsewhere, the ECB has taken over the mantel as the world's fastest printer, outpacing Bernanke and even China. Not including yesterday/today's LTRO, the ECB balance sheet has grown by 40% since June 2011.
The euro has jumped from 1.26 to almost 1.35 in a few months while this printing has gone into overdrive.
The perceived safest banking systems in Europe---Germany and Switzerland---are the two with far and away the greatest leverage (Germany's is twice that of Spain and Italy, Switzerland's is three times those two little piglets).
On March 1st we will learn if 75% crammed down voluntary haircuts, coupon alterations, term alterations, and principle alterations constitute a "default event", or merely a minor misunderstanding amongst friends easily assuaged by browbeating and threats. Those having the authority to make the ruling just happen to be those who would have the most to lose if an event was determined to have taken place. Somewhat suprisingly, even presumably astute investors such as Kyle Bass and David Einhorn were, or remain, owners of these instruments, obviously purchased without first understanding the terms under which they would pay off. Apparently they forgot the words of former President Reagan, "Trust, but verify".
So whither the CDS market if no "event" is deemed to have taken place?
If past is prologue, the CDS market will only become larger.
To be logical is to live dangerously. To have one's mind riddled with facts and figures, or to spend more than a passing moment on Zerohedge, is to live dangerously. To believe in fairness is, in addition to being quaintly naive, to live dangerously. To believe in rule of law is to live dangerously. To be anything less than one with paid access to the halls of power is to live dangerously.
Poetry!!
Morgan Stanley Is The Rosetta Brick - Part 2
http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/02/morgan-stanley-...
" More than 160 German “financial services executives” (i.e. tax collectors) are preparing to go to Greece in order to “strengthen the Greek tax mechanism,” according to a report published in the German magazine Wirtschafts Woche."
Expect full cooperation from a country whose national sport is tax "avoidance" and wrestling.