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Aussie Market Opens - Signals Market's Initial Disappointment

Tyler Durden's picture




 

UPDATE: Sure enough - *COLE SAYS MAJORITY OF REPUBLICANS TO VOTE FOR SENATE BILL

...and the market is rallying...

Following Monday's fiscal-cliff-gasm in markets in the US, the Australian stock market is the first indication of the post-cliff on-again-off-again reaction to the reality that is a stymied House and stubborn Senate. Some are noting the fact that it is 'up' as a signal of confidence - however, given its 'catch-up' nature, it is actually signalling considerably less confidence than US stocks showed at their close. Why is this important? Because all that matters is the market...

"Everyone knows once the markets open tomorrow our courage drops in direct proportion to the market fall," said one Republican lawmaker

ASX 200 indicates lagging confidence in the markets...

 

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Tue, 01/01/2013 - 20:55 | 3113295 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

I wana see some RED in them there futures!

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 20:55 | 3113299 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Dont worry you'll get your doom!  All year too!

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:00 | 3113310 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

 

free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity larry kudlow

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:05 | 3113322 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

We spent the whole year on here yelling that both parties were in fact one party, and we expect them to act as two different parties now? The only thing that surprises me is how easily this is all going through. No need for some tanks on the streets talk.

We are supposed to think the debt ceiling will be any different? They will continue to punt, and there is a lot of field left. As long as we are in a comfortable Zirp/Nirp world, punting is the plan.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 23:17 | 3113744 Town Crier
Town Crier's picture

I still haven't seen any mention of the self-employment tax or the payroll tax.  They keep talking about rich people and how they should pay more.  But that is just a diversion.  The payroll tax is a separate tax (about 6%) that is paid by everybody who has a job, and an additional matching 6% is paid by every worker's employer.  Self-employed people get hit with both sides of that (about 12%).  This tax includes every worker and every employer, no matter how rich or poor anybody is.  This is what the government wanted all along.  

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 23:19 | 3113750 Town Crier
Town Crier's picture

I edited to correct a misspelling of "employer."

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 23:27 | 3113767 Town Crier
Town Crier's picture

Anyway, this tax was cut 2% by George W. Bush, and the tax is scheduled to go back up again unless the current congress keeps the Bush cut.  This is way bigger than any revenue to be gained by taxing the rich.  No mention of this.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 23:57 | 3113815 SanOvaBeach
SanOvaBeach's picture

thank god!  least it bring out the grammer-spelling police............

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 00:03 | 3113835 akak
akak's picture

You did not capitalize the "t" in "thank" nor the "l" in "least", as you should have.

Oh, and you misspelled "grammar".

And a proper ellipsis consists of only three dots.

Carry on.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 00:07 | 3113846 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

He also misspelled "lest" (or just used the wrong word altogether).

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 23:18 | 3113749 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The thing that kills me Fonz is that people will still believe there is a difference between the two parties even after this debacle.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 23:24 | 3113758 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I have no idea how they could think that. I truly don't. Not now. I would love to see Rand Paul and some others officially change parties to independants and call this thing the total sham that it is. Maybe they could gain some support. But we are too far down the road probably.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 23:22 | 3113757 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

"As long as we are in a comfortable Zirp/Nirp world, punting is the plan"

As long as the cancer in the punter's leg doesn't metastasize, I guess it's all good?

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 23:26 | 3113761 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The only question is, when does "it's all good" turn into "holy shit what just happened".

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:06 | 3113329 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

2013 the spx is going to hit 2000.  Bernanke and Obama aka Batman and Robin are going to save the world by spending our way to prosperity and incurring trillions in debt, then for a small fee GS is going to package all the debts of the world into a cdo the size of the freedom tower.  Once this is complete, Superman is going to take the CDO and hurl it toward the sun and just like the that all the world's problems will be resolved for the next 100 years.  Back at the Hall Of Justice (the FED) all the 401k's and pension accounts will be fully funded.  The End

The Justice League

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:34 | 3113467 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Whew!.. I forgot for a moment there that we had God and the Justice League on our side.

They are all straight, aren't they?

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 22:49 | 3113696 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Aqua Man <-> Lindsey Graham

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 23:27 | 3113765 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

"Aqua Man <-> Lindsey Graham"

Wonder Woman <-> Lindsey Graham

Fixed...

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 23:55 | 3113809 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Sea Man <-> Lindsey Graham

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSwG6MfiSqw

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 22:32 | 3113662 hangemhigh
hangemhigh's picture

@ trend     311 3329

The Justice League

correct except for the final attribution....it should be The League of Shadows.........

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:11 | 3113358 SpykerSpeed
SpykerSpeed's picture

Right.  America's fall is a process, not an event.  This "fiscal cliff" and "debt ceiling" are just the beginning of the long chain of events that lead to its ultimate collapse... hang on to your hats, folks.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 00:26 | 3113916 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

Bloomberg just used the real term for the FC vote, for the first time two minutes ago - AUSTERITY!! New payroll taxes will hit 77% of the working population. Yet, your pandering president says only the richest households.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:29 | 3113418 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

"Sledgehammer" hits Australian economy:

"On Thursday, Treasurer Wayne Swan was forced to dump plans for a surplus and realign fiscal policy towards “jobs and growth” as collapsing tax revenues failed to hit budget targets.

Cash receipts to the end of October are now 3.9 billion behind budget estimates. With a fragile economy, common-sense has finally prevailed and the Government has decided not to keep cutting expenditure to match falling revenues in a race to the bottom as the Australian economy continues to deteriorate.

Swan indicates there has been a substantial broad based hit to company profits across multiple sectors of our economy."

 

http://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com/

..................................................................................

Oh yes, there's also that little matter of house prices:

 

Australian property bubble

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_property_bubble


"The Australian Property bubble is speculation that real estate prices in Australia are (currently) valued at more than they are worth. Some people may argue that this is a real estate bubble.

A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterised by rapid increases in valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels and then decline."

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 23:50 | 3113802 ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

House prices sink for a second year in Australia:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/house-prices-sink-for-a-second-y...

If you were Australian, you'd be wondering how this is possible, because we've always been told that house prices double every seven years.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 03:24 | 3114221 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

Aussie house prices are still massively, ludicrously, prepostorously overvalued. Teetering on the brink, with the shills going all out trying to fool the young/dumb/FOC to enter.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 03:43 | 3114236 ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

Some figures I've seen suggest the median dwelling price in the country is almost $500,000, and the average gross yearly income is $57,000. I know when my parents bought their house, it was $64,000, and they were earning $25,000 gross per year. The house price/income ratio has just ballooned out in a ridiculous fashion, but no one notices.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 05:41 | 3114291 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

Yup that's pretty much it. Plus the net rental yield has fallen almost to zero, i.e. the only reason 'investors' (actually speculators) buy is for the expectation of capital gain, with the gov policies fuelling this with policies that increased the importance of CG over yield.

A very illuminating chart is plotting total mortgage debt over the last 25 years on the same chart as house prices. Both have gone up several times (of course debt quicker than prices as banksters must get their cut)

Basically, people were promised that would get 10% CG each year if they borrowed and bought houses, even though incomes only rise 1% a year. TPTB then instituted laws that ensured this for long enough that TPTB could benefit. But it takes but a moment to realize this is a chain letter.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:25 | 3113425 ball-and-chain
ball-and-chain's picture

The Ponzi Scheme will continue to roll on.

The markets got exactly what they wanted.

Wall Street and London rule the world.

Business as usual.

Move along.  Nothing to see.

http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2013/01/yesterday-dragon-lady-made-beef-and-egg.html

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 20:56 | 3113301 Karlus
Karlus's picture

Im guessing this should spike gold, but in Alice in Wonderland markets, it will drop on a deal.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:11 | 3113359 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

The Fed's raising taxes and cutting spending is bad for growth. Even if we only get half of that...which is all that was voted on...that's bearish for growth. In fact about the only thing that is bullish for the economy is the cycle itself. Interest rates "at or near zero" is clearly priced in. So is any "Inflation Trading" that has been RAMPant three years running now. "Now it's the Banksters turn to smile." Consumers of debt are legion in this environment...but who is buying any one "thing"? I'm still sticking with my core belief that liquidation everywhere and always represents the most effective solution to a debt crisis. the debt must be EXTINGUISHED in order to "recreated"...not "leavened." Now only the asset rich can grow the economy...and they don't borrow money to begin with. "Fiscal Agreement here we come!" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_5kv8QeBBc

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 20:56 | 3113303 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

One algo to rule them all. [/Lloyd of the Rings]

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 20:57 | 3113305 devo
devo's picture

Am I missing something--why aren't futures open?

 

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:01 | 3113312 rehypothecator
rehypothecator's picture

Because it's new year's day, except in Australia, where it's already tomorrow? 

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:08 | 3113328 akak
akak's picture

It must really suck to live in Australia, where it is never today, and the sky is always below you, and Christmas comes in July.  Not to mention how they don't even have a clue on how to speak proper English.  It's all just wrong.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:12 | 3113362 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

And how have they not fallen off the planet already?  What the hell?

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:19 | 3113382 akak
akak's picture

It's those special velcro slippers they wear.

My theory is that all that blood rushing to their upside-down brains is why they speak so strangely.  The bizarre desire to put slices of beets (BEETS!) on hamburgers is an associated and unfortunate side effect.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 22:38 | 3113677 knukles
knukles's picture

Water swirls backwards there, too!

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 22:54 | 3113691 akak
akak's picture

I once had the opportunity to flush a toilet exactly on the equator.

The results?  After taking a good while to get the pattern established, it swirled clockwise around half of the time, and counterclockwise the other times.  I was hoping to see it all just go straight down in one seemless sucking action (like our current economy).  Color me disappointed.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 00:37 | 3113948 Jena
Jena's picture

What color is that?   

Cheers,

Jena

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:18 | 3113394 ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

Haha... proper English. Americans are rather defensive of the tongue of the motherland :P

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:22 | 3113406 akak
akak's picture

At least we Americans don't maniacally torture our vowels.

Phonemic waterboarding ought to be a crime.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:29 | 3113440 ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

Well, Northerners might not, but I've had trouble understanding the drawl that comes out of a southerners mouth from time to time when I've travelled through the southern states.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:34 | 3113458 akak
akak's picture

OK, agreed, you got us there!

I worked with a Texan once, nicest guy in the world, but we practically needed a translator between us to communicate.  For example, it once took me several minutes to grasp that what I thought were his references to "poplin" were actually to "PIPELINE"!

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:32 | 3113460 nmewn
nmewn's picture

lol...wut?

Is there a difference between you'ze and ya'll?

Never mind...the games on.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:42 | 3113498 ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

Regarding correct language use, there isn't. Plus, they're used by culturally similar kinds of people.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 22:53 | 3113701 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

I've been informed that "y'all" is actually a singular form and "all'z'y'all'z" the equivalent plural.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 22:57 | 3113710 akak
akak's picture

Given the lack of a generally accepted second person plural in English (such as the "y'all" of the US South), I happily have adopted the latter, but give it the more "correct" formation of "you all".

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 23:04 | 3113723 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

All of you?

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:31 | 3113446 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"Phonemic waterboarding ought to be a crime."

No kiddin...lol.

Proper english gave us some real crazy shit like write, right? And a knight riding his horse in the night.

Makes for real problems for a red to understand what was actually read ;-)

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:37 | 3113481 akak
akak's picture

Agree, written English is an utter abomination.  I say throw out the whole rotten written language and start over from scratch.  I've always pitied the poor SOBs who have to learn all the insanity of written English as a second language!

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:45 | 3113510 ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

Your mother, over there, said they're playing with their gifts, of which you're the provider.

Two sounds, five different words. Not difficult at all!

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 22:54 | 3113708 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Look, when you steal your entire language from four other ones, things are bound to get messy.

 

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 23:28 | 3113773 nmewn
nmewn's picture

lol...point well taken...we're all mutts now!

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:37 | 3113475 chump666
chump666's picture

"At least we Americans don't maniacally torture our vowels."

hahahaha what are you smoking?

 

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:49 | 3113500 akak
akak's picture

Ask any linguist (cunning or otherwise), and they will be forced to objectively tell you that standard (northern) American English speakers have the cleanest, simplest, purest vowels to be heard anywhere in the English-speaking world.  What you Brits and Aussies do with the "o" in the word "body", for example, STILL leaves me scratching my head, and slappping my knees.  And need I even go into the whole "Chinar and Indiar are ..." thing?

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 22:06 | 3113572 chump666
chump666's picture

You sound obsessive.  Did some Aussie girl knock you back?  Maybe you f*cked up the date giving her paradoxical American style English lessons.  Who knows.

Anyway to the rest of you loons, watch the markets.  Plus there is nothing worst than manic depressive, (armchair) grammatical theorists correcting people on public forums.

Thank you.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 22:14 | 3113604 akak
akak's picture

You sound angry.  Did some American laugh in your face after listening to your hysterically mangled and slang-sprinkled Aussie lingo?  Maybe your atrociously tortured aussie vowels were given a proper dressing-down from a linguist somewhere?  Who knows.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 23:37 | 3113790 chump666
chump666's picture

Now you're sounding neurotic.  Actually you don't sound like an American at all, more so like a nutty European.

I wonder...

Anyway who cares, I love Aussies.  Australians you are ok!

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 22:56 | 3113709 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Do you mean he possibly forgot to clock her in the face per normal Aussie mating rites?

 

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 23:17 | 3113745 akak
akak's picture

Now THAT was fucking funny!

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 23:48 | 3113801 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Give it a rest cobber, stone the crows it's the bloody fies that make us speak with our mouths closed. We would speak the Old bags language right proper but the flies get that thirsty they fly straight into gob for a quick wet up.

So dont come the raw prawn with me, ya got to think about such things or you may be accused of being a few sheep short in the top paddock mate

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 04:42 | 3114263 awakening
awakening's picture

'a few sheep short in the top paddock mate'

Hopefully he is not a Kiwi ;)

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:01 | 3113314 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

4 am

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:07 | 3113334 devo
devo's picture

^ Thanks

I thought market was closed, futures open usual time.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:10 | 3113340 CPL
CPL's picture

Tokyo will be open soon enough.

 

Looking at the AUS market is about as useful as examining the Canuck one.  We're extentions, not the primary.  California could buy and sell both of us four times and not break a sweat.  That's a single state full of tech startups and energy.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:22 | 3113408 ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

California, the state? No it couldn't - it's broke.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 23:05 | 3113724 CPL
CPL's picture

The state is broke.  The companies aren't....yet.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:00 | 3113311 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Somethins up with them there futures.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 23:07 | 3113731 CPL
CPL's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Yi7BYizXt8

 

James Burke - The Day the Universe Changed - Credit Where it's due.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:02 | 3113315 drwillia1
drwillia1's picture

Market poised to move higher into next change in trend time window.

change-in-trend.com

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:03 | 3113316 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Was watching Cole live on Bloomberg also.

He said, potential 'market reaction' to not passing it was the highest consideration because of 401k and IRA holders.

Need I say more?

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:14 | 3113347 Racer
Racer's picture

 I don't know what 401 and IRA means but I imagine they are pensions? Are they not the ones who will be plundered the most to make up the shortfall?

and if so what difference does a day drop in the market do to them if the funds available are many decades in the future????

Seems to me it isn't a matter for the people holding of these things but sailing too close to the margin for the US gobshite  that is the problem

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:03 | 3113319 busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

The House amendment bill won't pass, then the Senate bill will. 

Spending cuts will never occur.  FY13 will be 1/2 over at the end of March, so they will negotiate to not implement any cuts until FY14, starting on Oct 1.  By then something else will happen to prevent the cuts or they will be overwhelmed by increased spending in other areas.

The tea party Republicans don't appear to have sufficient power to force any real cuts or reduce the debt.

Game over.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:05 | 3113323 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Market rallies on it's own destruction.  Interesting

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:07 | 3113330 Racer
Racer's picture

This is all so fake now, if you wrote a book about it, it would be shunned for being too ridiculous

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:09 | 3113349 Karlus
Karlus's picture

In a way, this is good because it brings the collapse quicker. Have to collapse to reset.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 03:09 | 3114207 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

The ASX daily chart is a fucking doozy though. Nice straight ramps up to a predetermined level, and then level off, EVERY day now. Every day a hockeystick and noone says anything about it. 

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:09 | 3113345 devo
devo's picture

I think gold traders have this wrong. Any deal will involve a lot of printing. Yet gold is down?

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:10 | 3113353 Karlus
Karlus's picture

I suspect they are leaving gold to go "risk on" with AAPL and FB

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:24 | 3113420 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"bidless market." no bids for gold either. to the extent to which the Bailout Regime can be maintained (decades if not a century i would argue) then the risk is on those who demand credit...almost entirely...while the credit creator simply "plays golf." Basically "if you have a problem call your Congressman." That would be the guy currently GUTTING the Federal Government btw. Normally economizing in that sector is equated with "ceasing to exist." What did they say when Sandy hit? "Where are all the Government people?" It would appear insofar as Government Policy is concerned "there are to be a lot less of them soon" as well. That would be "the people who help" not the hurricane thingy's. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boomer

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:15 | 3113376 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Gold is a 2012 relic

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:14 | 3113365 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

Tyler, all due respect but stop with the "sure enough" lark please. You(s) (and Goldman) have been suggesting the market would have to tank to get anything at all passed.. your (Goldman) 1250 SPX year end prediction wasn’t so "sure enough" was it.

You posted lofty articles claiming it was disturbing no one else could see that this was the case.

“sure enough” this was a big fail.

See my point?

 

Keep up the good work and perhaps the market may tank after all is passed as it figures out the slight debt problem, that will only increase at a greater rate due to not going over cliff.

 

 

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 22:59 | 3113714 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

My condolences on your shorts.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:34 | 3113466 chump666
chump666's picture

One last hurrah.

 

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 22:59 | 3113715 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

We finally have a leader: the stock market.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 00:27 | 3113918 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Market bulls win again, along with Obama.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 01:38 | 3114119 dunce
dunce's picture

If they lose courage if the market dips, how will they feel if they vote for this stupidity and the market tanks 10%?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 05:53 | 3114302 jubber
jubber's picture

300 point gap up on the Dow by the look of it

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 06:02 | 3114304 Element
Element's picture

 

 

Late 2008 oil collapsed to $32, AUD collapsed from ~95c down to ~70c, commodities collapsed hard while price contracts were discounted which all strongly contributed to a rapid bounce in Asia.

2013 - Europe's in recession, other major economy's teetering, but oil hasn't tanked, AUD is ~8 cents higher than pre-Lehman, industrial commodities also remain higher than pre-Lehman.

No bounce coming there, so stimulus spending will run out in Asia and things will grind lower.

Guess we'll just have to wait for Europe to spring back to 4% growth ... which should be any year now ...

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