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Guest Post: 2013 - Market Outlook & Economic Forecast

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Lance Roberts of Street Talk Live blog,

We can’t predict the future – if it was actually possible fortune tellers would all win the lottery.  They don’t, we can’t and we aren’t going to try to.  However, we can analyze what has happened in the past, weed through the noise of the present and try to discern the possible outcomes of the future.

So, it is now time for our annual prognostications, forecasts, guesses and expectations for 2013.   The good news is that we survived the end of the Mayan calendar and therefore, regardless of your expectations over the past year, 2012 counts as a win.  2013, however, is poised to be a year of opposing forces.  For every almost every positive tailwind there is an opposing headwind, and in the coming year, the political and economic decisions domestically, and globally, will define the coming landscape.

 

 

Special Report - 2013 Market Outlook and Economic Forecast

 

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Tue, 01/01/2013 - 16:59 | 3112781 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

Of December 24? Outdated.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:08 | 3112797 CPL
CPL's picture

Just replace Obama with the name Reagan in the entire report and switch the dates to 1985.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:44 | 3112872 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his new book Antifragile suggests that it is the strength (fragility or not) of a given system that we CAN know.  He also says that predicting the future is mostly as waste of time.

IMO, what is important is that what we can do as individuals is prepare for hard times, and get stronger while we are at it.

I have noted over the several years reading ZH that many others (like me) cannot convince friends & family that the risks are HIGH that the system collapses, or at least causes lots of pain at the denouement.  So, I do not do that anymore (try to tell them to buy gold, etc.).

I have found that it is up to each of us to better ourselves (in whatever way), and leave Nature to do her work...

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 18:26 | 3112976 CPL
CPL's picture

<internet high five.>

Rock on brother.

 

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 18:28 | 3112979 bonderøven-farm ass
bonderøven-farm ass's picture

Natural selection.....it's long overdue.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 19:15 | 3113093 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

It's not just a good idea, it's the law.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 19:07 | 3113073 Landrew
Landrew's picture

Thanks, just bought it. I enjoyed Black Swan and look forward to reading Antifragile . We may not always agree but, on this I think we will.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 19:40 | 3113146 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

You'll like the book!

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 21:03 | 3113318 Spigot
Spigot's picture

Taleb is always a good read. His thinking is more subtle than first brush. You know how to keep frictions as low as possible, even if that means too low a MTBF for your tribe. Ah, well, some learn earlier and others learn later in a more painful fashion. We get to choose. And there in lays opportunity, as the herd is ALWAYS behind the curve and swings too wide the goes over the cliff. Stay ahead of the herd, cut the turns close and wave bye-bye as they sail over the side rail. So sad, but the younger ones will watch and learn. That is the saving grace.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 20:05 | 3113201 ball-and-chain
ball-and-chain's picture

Man, we've been predicting the complete collapse for the last four years.

When's it going to happen?

I'm tired of waiting.

I won't be happy till the sky falls.

http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2013/01/yesterday-dragon-lady-made-beef-and-egg.html

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:04 | 3112789 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Stocks cannot outgrow the economy in the long term..."

And considering the $6+ TRILLION of jizz the FED and Treasury have thrown at Wall Street we should be at DOW 25,000; which means the economy is in the shitter.

Not sure if there is a limit to FED printing.

Any study of the economy that looks to the past is skating on ice as we have not been here before.

NEVER has the U.S.A. been so greatly in debt with so much offshored production and high yield acreage propped by petrochemicals and genetic engineering. 

NEVER have we ever built such a house of cards so large and fragile.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:11 | 3112803 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Everybody is happy and smiling when skating on ice.

Until the first guy goes through...

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:13 | 3112812 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Or until somebody loses an eye.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:21 | 3112817 knukles
knukles's picture

And that's when the real fun starts

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:24 | 3112826 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Fear and greed baby... that's what runs the markets.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:12 | 3112810 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

NEVER have we ever built such a house of cards so large and fragile.

the petrodollar is highly underestimated... it will crash some day, yes... but if fiat would only be based on coercion / law, all would have crashed decades ago...

as long as most oil is billed in USD, the dollar and all all its derivative currencies will have purchasing power = will be printed and will be used.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:04 | 3112790 Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

"60% stocks, 35% bonds, 5% cash.
Don't hoard physical metals. "
Way to go.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:16 | 3112813 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

No shit! Paragraph after paragraph about how hard it is to be a contrarian and that's their allocation? Someone should tell them that's what every 'Certified Financial Planner' on the planet is recommending.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:22 | 3112821 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Up the 35% bond allocation just a touch and you could call them 'Certified Funeral Planners'...

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 04:24 | 3114255 Lore
Lore's picture

Give the author credit for trying. It takes time to overcome institutionalization.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:49 | 3112890 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ Fuh Q

+ 1

I am well known here at ZH for advocating that people hold LOTS of gold.  Yet, I think that almost anyone with some dicipline and foresight can join the "other 1%" (or other 3%, depending on whose figures you believe) by buying physical gold for permanent holding.

Even though I preach here about that, I am at less than 15% physical PMs (mostly gold), but I feel that is enough.

And only 5% cash?!  WTF?!  I think EVERYONE should have both types of cash: electrons in the bank (checking account, available by ATM) as well as a few thousand in the house for, say, three months living expenses.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 19:21 | 3113107 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

I check Kitco for spot prices, occasionally for physical prices. Today I noticed Canada and other countries have an "Only ship outside the USA" requirement ! How long has THAT been in effect?

I also liked this:

https://online.kitco.com/bullion/completelist_USD.html

1 oz Gold American Buffalo....."Only ship outside the USA" !!!

Who do you PM guys buy from?

Big reputable or local, non-reporting?

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 19:44 | 3113131 akak
akak's picture

FUCK Kitco and that abominable, execrable anti-gold bankster mouthpiece whom they use as their official spokesman, Jon Nadler!  Every self-respecting precious metals owner, or potential buyer, should automatically boycott that suspicious and grossly unethical company and everything and everyone having to do with them.  Furthermore, their paper "PM Pooled Accounts", set up by Nadler himself, are assuredly a Ponzi just waiting to collapse. 

I refuse to click on the Kitco website, even for charts or prices, unless I am in a particularly masochistic mood and have a perverse desire to read the outrageously dishonest, disingenuous, duplicitous, damnable daily drivel of 'ol Nadless (especially his hyperbolic rants against the "Radical Goldbug Extremists") in order to kickstart my morning bowel movement.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 19:37 | 3113134 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

APMEX can be good at the right time and right item.

The random date circulated Canadian Maple Leaf and Austrian Philharmonic are usually the least over spot price, though they have been high lately.

Currently appears the Credit Suisse 1 oz. bar is only $34.99 over spot (~2%) while the coins above are $49.99 over (~3%):

http://www.apmex.com/Product/11950/1_oz_Credit_Suisse_Gold_Bar_9999_Fine...

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 19:58 | 3113178 Colonel
Colonel's picture

Best to purchase as many goods or services you can locally and non-reporting. Remember they didn't get "Too Big To Fail" by staying local. Asswipe Kitco's day of reckoning is coming.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 00:52 | 3131847 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Compare Gold Prices and Premiums, Best Deals on Gold Bullion Worldwide

Compare Silver Prices and Premiums, Best Deals on Silver Worldwide | Brought to you by The Bernank

Spot Gold - Live Gold Price - Forex Charts | Currency Charts

I got good deals (small % over spot, small shipping, quality 100%) from silvergoldbull.com myself & will continue to do so. Selection is adequate, I see no reason to complain. The top-most 2 URL's give better cash-per deals but some (e.g. Tulving) may require bulk purchase for ANY purchase much less the cheap-deal detected & posted automatically at the compare_xxx_ URL's

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:20 | 3114385 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

+1 DoChen

I think if you have very little savings, get as much as possible in physical, 80-90%

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:05 | 3112792 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

omg reading goat entrails would be more informative

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:32 | 3112844 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

About what I expect from anybody named "Lance". A kid in my high school was actually named Lance Boyle. He was a fucktard too.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 19:37 | 3113141 knukles
knukles's picture

My doctor lanced my boyle.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:06 | 3112793 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

it is not about if, it is about when.. will 2013 be when? if I only knew..

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:11 | 3112802 JR
JR's picture

The future is clear if we continue on the same road we have been following the past 100 years.  Already, we are within the city limits of Serfdom.

Question: When did the transition of the government as servant become government as master?

Answer: 1913. With the Federal income tax and the Federal Reserve Act.

The consequences of this transition moved steadily through the years unnoticed by many Americans, until recently, when the abuse of citizens by their masters became so obvious that even low-information people could recognize the economy was awash.

Now, it seems, the rulers have such disregard for their subjects (slaves) that they have begun to throw them overboard – and the division of the victims has begun. Savers already in the water drowning are being joined by obstinate Americans seeking to better themselves by making money. Millions of wage earners, relieved that their tax rate has been spared, will face the waters when their FICA and healthcare bills arrive.

Even the jubilant masses, shouting hosannas to Obama for delivering the welfare bacon, unknowingly face victim status when the manna is all gone.

Ironically, with the Fed’s printing press, the Federal income tax is no longer necessary to feed the Elites’ gargantuan thirst for wealth and power.

Why, asks G. Edward Griffin, “does the federal government bother with taxes at all? Why not just operate on monetized debt?

“The answer is twofold. First, if it did, people would begin to wonder about the source of the money, and that might cause them to wake up to the reality that inflation is a tax. Thus, open taxes at some level serve to perpetuate public ignorance which is essential to the success of the scheme.

“The second reason is that taxes, particularly progressive taxes, are weapons by which elitist social planners can wage war on the middle class.”

The original purpose of the nation’s founding documents– a system of laws that would protect the rights of citizens for their happiness and mutual progress onto which the colonies signed in agreement in order to protect the general welfare of the future of their citizens – contained nothing that suggested a Leviathan government that would control its subjects for its own benefit by confiscation of the nation’s income.

It was by passage of the 16th Amendment, the Federal Income Tax, and creation of a central bank that the international bankers effected dramatic changes in the American way of life under their control.

The bad news is that the government now “obtains every cent of the money it pays to us by confiscating it from us in the first place” – minus a handling fee.

“The so-called ‘benefit’ to the public,” says Griffin, “is but a giant scam.”

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:42 | 3112871 Redstone
Redstone's picture

Exactly. The arrogance of those who would command us, the politicians acting as masters this week, would grab first for the taxes and, as you say, not just for the revenue but for the chance to dominate American citizens, particularly her brightest and best.
It’s typical that they would go to taxes first and discuss the obscene overspending some other day.
As with all cruel masters, the first order of business: Go with the whip.
Our forefathers would be shocked to watch these quislings divide up the earnings of hardworking Americans and divert them to their friends in the international banks and to the mob voters who keep them in power.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 18:01 | 3112915 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

leaving aside the fact that money printing shouldn't work to begin with (my view...wrong as it turned out)...are you sure you want to be an economy like Greece's? I mean we can live in a world where are fiat money really doesn't matter. Sure that's where you want to go?

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 19:11 | 3113084 JR
JR's picture

America was on a sound footing with sound money prior to 1913;  the Fed has used the issuance of the money supply for its private owners own benefit and to the colossal damage to American treasure and property over the past 100 years. We would have been better to have never had a central bank or fiat currency.

The bankers are creating “poverty amidst abundance” all around the globe.  It’s called exploitation. It leads to tyranny or in the words of the President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy’s words, “world governance.”

The US is bankrupt. And you’re right, as long as the US can print money to pay its bills, as long as the US dollar remains the world reserve currency, as long as the world accepts them, America will be able to finance the oligarchs’ war and welfare system.

But, imo, it is only a matter of time before the dollar collapses.

Bill Sardi asked recently is America’s Wealth Eroding: What does Mr. [Ron] Paul mean when he says this is what happens when "a country destroys its money" and "destroys or eliminates the middle class." What does that mean in dollars and cents?”

Says Sardi: “It means the American people are aggregately losing the value of their banked money at the rate of $16,881 per second, $970,904 per minute, $58,254,253 per hour, $1.398 billion per day, or $510,304,260,000 per year (that’s $510 billion!). That is the most conservative figure, based upon a 7% rate of inflation. The erosion of American wealth could be as high as $780 billion/year if a higher 10% inflation rate is employed."

In effect, as put forth by a letter of Demand for Monetary Reform in England in 1943 for an "honest National Money System for England" just prior to losing her Pound Sterling to the dollar as the anchor of the system, the petitioners pleaded for a restoration to the nation of its rightful prerogative over the issue money that had been usurped by the international bankers, Their demand said:  “It is a forced levy on the nations that confers on the borrower the power to purchase a corresponding amount of wealth on the market, which wealth does not belong to them, or those who borrow from them, but to the community. The proceeds of the issue of new money—whether of paper or any other form of credit money—belong to the Nation in which it is, or is accepted as, legal tender, and not to the issuer. Herein lies the basic flaw of the existing monetary system.”

If the Federal Reserve could be excised now from its hold on the world’s governments, the global financiers’ march to a world currency and world government could be stopped.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:11 | 3112804 Everyman
Everyman's picture

For every almost every positive tailwind there is an opposing headwind, and in the coming year, the political and economic decisions domestically, and globally, will define the coming landscape.

 

To that I can only say NO SHIT SHERLOCK!  What kind of fucking crystal bal gazer this stupid fuck is.  Hell I could have told you that without all that analysis and glossy presentation.  24 damn pages to state the blantantly obvious?????

 

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:13 | 3112811 mmanfredi
mmanfredi's picture

Outdated...December 24, 2011???????

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 19:03 | 3113071 Getting Old Sucks
Getting Old Sucks's picture

Nice catch.  My first take was spam.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:33 | 3112845 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Geopolitics pass new tax laws so that WallStreet can play with new free monies.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:38 | 3112862 knowless
knowless's picture

SO XTREME

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 17:59 | 3112910 The Heart
The Heart's picture

Outcome?

Just when you thought the insanity could not be any more point blank in your face.

The beginning of the end of this country has long ago begun.

Now, it is only a matter of time until the final blows of the end come.

The real possibility of an EMP attack, or a Carrington Event could manifest any day now.

What happens after that is anyone's guess.

Here is NBC's depiction that may not be to far off the mark.

Coming to a theater near you soon, REVOLUTION!

http://www.nbc.com/revolution/

+

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 18:45 | 3113023 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

Looks bright.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 19:25 | 3113090 akak
akak's picture

 

For us, gold, and precious metals are a trading vehicle. While we are longer term bullish on gold as a core holding in our portfolios, it remains only a small portion of the overall allocation to which we will look to increase on significant corrections and reduce on rallies to our target. Gold is not a hedge for inflation, a "safe haven" investment or a currency replacement.  It is a commodity and will trade in volatile ranges in the months ahead.

He forgot to mention "you can't eat it" in order to make it a perfectly anti-gold Nadler trifecta.

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 22:36 | 3113674 MyBrothersKeeper
MyBrothersKeeper's picture

Stocks can indeed out earn GDP growth when governments intervene in markets.  That last 3 years has proven that without a doubt

Tue, 01/01/2013 - 23:55 | 3113811 Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture

You have to have pretty thick skin to be a market prognosticator. Just check out the scars on Harry Dent. When will it blow? Anyone can tell you, but you better not believe them or even worst, invest in them. Keep away from fortune and misfortune tellers. 

  These central planning Keynes disciples are a scary and irritating bunch. They have gotten what they want so far over the last 4 years, but history shows that they will not be able to control it all. They want to follow the japanese blueprint for their crisis. Bernanke does not want real growth because it will spur real inflation and he knows we can't handle the truth. His "disappointment" with growth is a crock of shit. This is what he wants, but will he or the next Keynes disciple be able to continue get it?

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 00:46 | 3131840 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

All things being equal ... except they never are.

Do the math yourself & adjust accordingly. I know the blog is "zero hedge" but don't literally use zero hedges.

vxx vs spy 01 zoomed out, see http://flic.kr/p/daxu6H

vxx vs spy 02 zoomed in, see http://flic.kr/p/daxu6H

2012 09 13 spy crash soon - http://flic.kr/p/daxu6H goldpricemodel

spy etf rolling chart forward - 2013 crash very soon

(and conversely from levels of 115-121 for SPY, 1/10th approx of s&p500 cash value) you should then feel secure getting back IN. A smart first step is seeing a high VXX price & buying however many Puts just barely in the money, maybe even 5.0 to 10.0 OUT of the money, you feel happy with. Look at VXX's history of dropping like a rock once dow/sp500's got a bottom in. Easy money at that stage. Ease your way in with DIA,SPY,FAS,RSU as you please for the next rise up.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 09:05 | 3114459 HawkEye123
HawkEye123's picture

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