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Byron Wien's 2013 Predictions Unveiled

Tyler Durden's picture


While the predictions of Blackstone's Byron Wien (born in 1933), who may not be in the senate or "sleep-deprived", but this year will become an octogenarian, may have been all over the place in the past 10 years, some correct, but most miserably wrong (with a recent hit rate of about 25%), he always does provide entertainment value. Which is the only value in the latest release of his 10 forecasts for 2013. Naturally, take all of these with a salt mine.

Byron’s Ten Surprises for 2013 are as follows:

  1. Iran announces it has adequate enriched uranium to produce a nuclear-armed missile and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms the claim. Sanctions, the devaluation of the currency, weak economic conditions and diplomacy did not stop the weapons program. The world must deal with Iran as a nuclear threat rather than talk endlessly about how to prevent the nuclear capability from happening. Both the United States and Israel shift to a policy of containment rather than prevention.
  2. A profit margin squeeze and limited revenue growth cause 2013 earnings for the Standard & Poor’s 500 to decline below $100, disappointing investors. The S&P 500 trades below 1300. Companies complain of limited pricing power in a slow, highly competitive world economic environment.
  3. Financial stocks have a rough time, reversing the gains of 2012. Intense competition in commercial and investment banking, together with low trading volumes, puts pressure on profits. Layoffs continue and compensation erodes further. Regulation increases and lawsuits persist as an industry burden.
  4. In a surprise reversal the Democrats sponsor a vigorous program to make the United States independent of Middle East oil imports before 2020. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude falls to $70 a barrel. The Administration proposes easing restrictions on hydraulic fracking for oil and gas in less populated areas and allowing more drilling on Federal land. They see energy production, infrastructure and housing as the key job creators in the 2013 economy.
  5. In a surprise reversal the Republicans make a major effort to become leaders in immigration policy. They sponsor a bill that paves the way for illegal immigrants to apply for citizenship if they have lived in the United States for a decade, have no criminal record, have a high school education or have served in the military, and can pass an English proficiency test. Their goal for 2016 is to win the Hispanic vote, which they believe has a naturally conservative orientation and which put the Democrats over the top in 2012.
  6. The new leaders in China seem determined to implement reforms to root out corruption, to keep the economy growing at 7% or better and to begin to develop improved health care and retirement programs. The Shanghai Composite finally comes alive and the “A” shares are up more than 20% in 2013, in contrast with the previous year when Chinese stocks were down and some developing markets, notably India, rose.
  7. Climate change contributes to another year of crop failures, resulting in grain and livestock prices rising significantly. Demand for grains in developing economies continues to increase as the standard of living rises. More investors focus on commodities as an investment opportunity and increase their allocation to this asset class. Corn rises to $8.00 a bushel, wheat to $9.00 a bushel and cattle to $1.50 a pound.
  8. Although inflation remains tame, the price of gold reaches $1,900 an ounce as central bankers everywhere continue to debase their currencies and the financial markets prove treacherous.
  9. The Japanese economy remains lackluster and the yen declines to 100 against the dollar. The Nikkei 225 continues the strong advance that began in November and trades above 12,000 as exports improve and investors return to the stocks of the world’s third largest economy.
  10. The structural problems of Europe remain largely unresolved and the mild recession that began there in 2012 continues. Civil unrest subsides as the weaker countries adjust to austerity. Greece proves successful in implementing policies that reduce wasteful government expenditures and raise revenues from citizens who had been evading taxes. European equities, however, decline 10% in sympathy with the U.S. market.

Every year there are always a few Surprises that do not make the Ten because either I do not believe they are as relevant as those on the basic list or I am not comfortable with the idea that they are “probable.” Below are several “also rans” which did not make the Ten Surprises.

“Also Rans”

  1. Having traded below 20 for most of 2012 the VIX Volatility Index surges 33% to 30, providing a bonanza for traders. The decline in the S&P 500 increases market volatility.
  2. The Newtown, Connecticut, massacre finally convinces Congress to do something about gun control. As a first step they ban future civilian purchases of automatic weapons, including handguns, with clips of more than ten rounds and require more extensive background checks on all gun purchases. “It should not be easier to buy a gun than rent a car” becomes a slogan.
  3. Frustrated by an inability to increase revenues through raising income taxes, Congress begins to consider different approaches. There is more talk of a value-added tax as well as a wealth tax, and these ideas appear to be slowly gathering momentum.
  4. Congress decides that high-frequency and other computerized algorithmic-based trading practices are putting the individual investor at a disadvantage. A transaction fee designed to slow down frenetic activity and protect against “flash crashes” and glitches is imposed on intra-day trades.
  5. The planet finds itself saturated with technology. Semiconductor companies, software providers, social media favorites and personal computer manufacturers all report disappointing earnings and provide discouraging guidance. They lead the overall market lower. Users finally agree the present state of the art is fast enough and connected enough, and that they have more “apps” than they know what to do with. Apple bucks the trend and trades above $700 as its products continue to enjoy enormous success abroad.

Over the past two years, Wien has gotten 4 of his 17 (24%) calls correct, which after adjusting for boldness, amounted to a woeful $0.67 yield.


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Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:16 | 3115403 Cunnial
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Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:20 | 3115417 notbot
notbot's picture

#8 is a no-brainer.

price of gold reaches $1,900 an ounce as central bankers everywhere continue to debase their currencies

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:25 | 3115435 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

Crazy old Byron, sittiing up there at 345 Park counting his billions making shit up for consumption by the masses while his company delivers double digits to its clients

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:29 | 3115454 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Good afternoon Junior...

#7 is also a no-brainer. Worst winter wheat report in over a decade as the midwest drought continues...

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:48 | 3115519 The Juggernaut
The Juggernaut's picture

Jeeze this guy just starts off like a Necon trash bag.  "Like"?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:21 | 3115657 knukles
knukles's picture

Why are any of these prognostications a "surprise" or represent any particular "insight" out of the realm of "Reasonable Consensus Expectations"?

They're not.

And are therefore entirely fucking useless.

Jeeez... and he gets paid the big bucks for this.

Pitiful demonstration of the failure of the professional money management business.  All sales, hype and self interested belief that they are superior beings....

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 21:41 | 3117227 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

predictions are only worth as long as someone's head is on the line.


rest are just juicy speculations or obvious common sense stuff.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:58 | 3115535 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

actually his 2012 predictions look a little better when you read the long version


or you can like him on FACEBOOK

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:37 | 3116306 dbTX
dbTX's picture

I'm sure this has already been done.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:34 | 3115476 Freddie
Freddie's picture

+1 F Byron Wein. 

Another of the Greatest Generation (of Liars).   Go take a f*****g dirt nap.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:51 | 3115526 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I'm amazed this fossil is still wasting oxygen

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:03 | 3116141 Matt
Matt's picture

Silent Generation. Too young to fight in WW2. The ones who got the best benefits out of all the social programs.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:35 | 3115639 Blazed
Blazed's picture

Another psychotic chrome dome brother of Blankfein and company? Ooooh, scary Iran is gonna get ya with a potential future bomb, better bomb them into petrodollar/USD reserve submission. 

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:24 | 3115442 redpill
redpill's picture

This guy is not very imaginative.  Which means he's both frequently wrong AND boring.


Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:58 | 3115839 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

He didn't venture very far into muni defaults or additional TBTF M&A.

So his "predictions" are less like predictions and more like diversionary "don't worry be happy" hand-waving.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:28 | 3115457 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Agreed. All that happened yesterday was the Obama/Congress agreed to further reckless spending with a guarantee of more debt and more Fed intervention. Like watching a horror show.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 20:47 | 3120618 Silver Bully
Silver Bully's picture

'#8 is a no-brainer.'

I beg to differ. These are fully manipulated markets, gold and silver especially. If the Fed wants the metals to stay below whatever arbitrary price they want, THEY WILL GET IT. Has the last year in precious metals not taught anyone anything? Unlimited fiat on the Comex hath its advantages. It can't stay that way forever, of course. There are penalties to be paid (they'll just be paid later.)

Is it possible we'll see above $1900?


Is it a no brainer?


Remember, the can can be kicked longer than you or I can stay solvent.

Note: I owned gold and silver until a tragic boating accident in Florida. I knew naming a fishing boat the Titanic was just asking for it.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:17 | 3115404 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

China and corruption.


What a knee slapper.


As for Japan, It will be after 2013 they fianally announce that the island is becomming un-inhabitable.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:41 | 3116584 DosZap
DosZap's picture

As for Japan, It will be after 2013 they fianally announce that the island is becomming un-inhabitable.


And WHAT idiotic counrtry would allow them all to leave,and suck off their teat, after a thousand years+ of Xenophobia?.Most racist nation outside of Arabs?Islamic Rads, I know of.


Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:18 | 3115406 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

Financial stocks have a hard time but Shangshit raises 20%'!?!WTF

this guy does more morning dope than i do..

private.message to darthdork.. i bet i outperform my 3 kilos of silver and 788 gms of gold..

To Physicall gold lovers, do you consider Sprott funds to be paper?

Not going for red arrow record but some are appreciated.

ot anyone catch that hand wave just now on bloomberg?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:36 | 3115481 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Remember Jimmy Cayne at Bear Stearns.   He was a heavy dope smoker and I think golfer. 

All the idiots at Bear were big bridge players with that scum Buffett. 

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:16 | 3115636 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

"To Physicall gold lovers, do you consider Sprott funds to be paper?"

Is this a rhetorical question?  Of course it's paper.  

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:17 | 3115409 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Crude closed 2012 at $111.11 / barrel, the all time end-of-year closing high.  Yet people think oil was down last year.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:28 | 3115456 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture


That is an inconvienient truth...

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:05 | 3116153 Matt
Matt's picture

Don't worry, someone told me America is entering an energy renaissance and oil will be $45 a barrel in no time.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:17 | 3115411 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Why Cater to these douchebags. We have CNBcrap for that.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:19 | 3115414 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

The Wiener's predictions are pathetic.  His very first prediction is both fear mongering and war mongering.

Does he work for Homeland Security now?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:39 | 3115483 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

I'm still waiting for the Russians and Chinese to get into the Plutonium Swaps business...

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:18 | 3115418 BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

Wish #2 were true today.  

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:19 | 3115420 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It should not be easier to buy a gun than it is to buy a car? When you consider how many paople are killed by cars versus how many are killed by guns...I would argue the opposite.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:48 | 3115517 Uncle Zuzu
Uncle Zuzu's picture

And heart attacks kill many more than cars every year.  It is still way too easy to buy a big mac and large fries.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:21 | 3115426 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

The funniest prediction is that the United States (regardless of party in charge) will be independent of Middle East oil.  Even if this was possible, why would we even want to do that?  As long as the rest of the world accepts USD for oil, why deplete our natural resources?  If we had to pay for oil with gold, I would agree with him however.



Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:31 | 3115466 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Maybe they should create The Department of Energy!  Oh wait..

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:21 | 3115427 ouchtouch
ouchtouch's picture

Gun control?  Hahahaha!

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:24 | 3115443 malek
malek's picture

A powerful way to spread lies:

Wrap them up as "self-evident" assumptions in so-called "predicitions."

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:25 | 3115445 Uncle Zuzu
Uncle Zuzu's picture

#4 and #5 of the ten SURPRISES start with "In a surprise reversal...". Redundant, Byron.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:50 | 3115461 BlueCheeseBandit
BlueCheeseBandit's picture

I pretty much agree with these and have been allocating or planning to allocate assets accordingly.

Guess momma was right, I am a retard.

Correction: I mostly agree these are the market's broad trends, so long as TPTB can continue suppressing surprises.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:31 | 3115468 TheMayor
TheMayor's picture

Idiot, automatic weapons are already banned.

Try taking a gun safety class before you go offering your prediction on something you know nothing about, you MORON.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:58 | 3115563 KnightTakesKing
KnightTakesKing's picture

Not exactly. You can purchase a "pre-ban" automatic weapon via a NFA Class 3 tax stamp from the ATF. Cost you about $200 (for the stamp) and about a month wait for the ATF to process the paperwork.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:33 | 3115472 JR
JR's picture

Speaking of predictions, of all the heavy weight socialism, inflation, bigger government, et cetera, heading our way, there’s one counter factor to consider for our future. To the 300 million firearms now existing in America, citizens are adding to the numbers as fast as they possibly can.

The firearms are not for hunting, target shooting or collections. They are to protect citizens, their property and savings, from tyrants.

In the wake of the Newtown shootings, Democrat Rep. John Lewis of Georgia said all the guns are not needed…”The British are not coming.” And columnist Walter E. Williams providing this quote in a tremendous article today on, said the Framers were not providing the Second Amendment to protect citizens against foreign invaders but to fight against domestic tyrants.

Williams’ list of quotations in Why the 2nd Amendment are blockbusters, including this one from Alexander Hamilton:

"The best we can hope for concerning the people at large is that they be properly armed. If the representatives of the people betray their constituents, there is then no recourse left but in the exertion of that original right of self-defense which is paramount to all positive forms of government."

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:01 | 3115577 WT Sherman
WT Sherman's picture

Recommend 1000 times!

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:28 | 3115700 beachdude
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Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:45 | 3115772 Trader-Scholar
Trader-Scholar's picture

"They are to protect citizens, their property and savings, from tyrants."

This is your interpretation of the 2nd amendment. The first part of it has to do with a well regulated militia. Look up Shays Rebellion on Wikipedia. It was a protest by former Revolutionary war soldiers and was eventually put down by the Massachusetts Militia. Hamilton was not alarmed, as you point out, but George Washington was. The 2nd Amendment was written after this rebellion. One could interpret it to mean that the right to keep arms is necessary to expedite the formation of militias to put down insurections threatening the Government. Just sayin'.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:55 | 3115828 MagicHandPuppet
MagicHandPuppet's picture

Obama, is that you?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:08 | 3116468 Trader-Scholar
Trader-Scholar's picture

Retired. Don't Vote. Waste of time. If ever there was a time to overthrow the tyrany that is our federal gov't it was after the false flag operation that was 911. I was in the architectural field; the Uniform Building Code is about "life safety". The so-called events of 911 violate the UBC in that multi-story structures that could be demolished by fire could not be approved. Richard Gage is a San Francisco working to uncover this. The entities that have gotten away with this, so far, are the real powers. 

Yes, the Supremes have recently ruled that citizens can be armed. But to be an effective fighting force a citizen militia needs training and discipline. Catch-22. There was a legal case about this and to make a long story way.

In Presser v. Illinois,  (1886), Herman Presser headed a German-American paramilitary shooting organization and was arrested for leading a parade group of 400 men, training and drilling with military weapons.....through the streets of Chicago as a violation of Illinois law that prohibited public drilling and parading in military style without a permit from the governor.

At his trial, Presser argued that the State of Illinois had violated his Second Amendment rights. The Supreme Court.......upheld the States' authority to regulate the militia and that citizens had no right to create their own militias or to own weapons for semi-military purposes.


Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:36 | 3115482 Jean Lazard de ...
Jean Lazard de Rotschild's picture

I thought Byron Wien worked for Blackstone, not BlackRock...

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:47 | 3115514 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

Uhu ... must be crop of Harvard grad Tylers they hired.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:10 | 3115602 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

there was a lot of incest between Blackrock and Blackstone bace in the eighties they even shared the Blackstone name for a while

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 19:44 | 3116830 Jean Lazard de ...
Jean Lazard de Rotschild's picture

they fixed it :) kudos to tyler!

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:42 | 3115498 akak
akak's picture

I predict that the vast majority of predictions for the coming year, as in the past, will be predictably predictable, and predictably wrong.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:23 | 3115668 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

I love to read these predictions. I save some of the best. That just gives me another laugh session at the end of the year.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:47 | 3115515 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I don't like his hair.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:48 | 3115518 Bollixed
Bollixed's picture

I predict many Obo voters will be asking themselves WTF were they thinking...

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:21 | 3115665 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Obo voters think? Could nave fooled me.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:52 | 3115528 KnightTakesKing
KnightTakesKing's picture

Also Ran #2: “It should not be easier to buy a gun than rent a car”.

I can rent a car in about three minutes. I can tell you that it takes much longer than three minutes for me to purchase a firearm.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 14:56 | 3115554 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

I predict the old fart looses more hair!

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:07 | 3115573 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture


It is 1936 in Spain. The communists, through multiple terrorist attacks on civilian targets, have managed to blame the weak republican government for the inability to maintain safety and order. To recitfy the situation, they volunteer to step in with a forceful government that will ensure peace and security for the people (and will stop their own murderous and destructive attacks). NEVER LET A PROBLEM THAT YOU HAVE CREATED, GO TO WASTE.

One of their first acts to is disarm the public, making gun ownership illegal and punishable by death. Additionally they appropriate the land and businesses of country's citizens for the collective (meaning THEM) and murder anyone who gets in their way (typical communist expedience ... evil is always justified to achieve their goals. Never let morals, ethics and law get in the way of a good looting)

The "progressives" (think Barabara Boxcar brain) that made the communist takeover possible realize their mistake, but are now powerless to reverse course and many of them are disposed of as excess baggage,

Three generals see the communist takeover for what it is and decide to fight the communists. The communist leaders/instigators realize that even after calling for help, from communist mercenaries from around the world, they are still fighting a losing war against an informed and determined opponent and so decide that their best tactic is to loot the country and send Spain's wealth to Russia for safe keeping with Joseph Stalin ... and they then quietly disappear.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:03 | 3115582 WT Sherman
WT Sherman's picture

#4 - Utterly impossible

#5 - Who cares how many additional moochers we have living here, we're all screwed now anyway

#6 - Corruption and China are the same word...come to think of so are U.S. Gov't and Corruption

#7 - Probably correct but not because of Climate Change....cough, cough...BS

The rest are no brainers that are happening right now anyway.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:04 | 3115588 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Ah, the temptation to reveal the future. However, I shall resist. No no, please don't beg.

But, good luck to all. We'll need it.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:13 | 3115622 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Is he prediciting that FB will make huge profit margins in 2013?  The market seems to think that by reducing everyone's paycheck by 2% will cause the people to spend their now reduced residual income on FB crap. 

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:15 | 3115630 sgorem
sgorem's picture

are there any Gentiles in the financial/bankster profession? just askin..............................................

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 20:51 | 3117059 knukles
knukles's picture

Lemme tell ya', even a lot of the broads have genetils

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:16 | 3115637 JR
JR's picture

A NY Times' David Brooks “Life Report” on Byron R. Wien has interesting quotes from Wien’s autobiographical essay, including these:

In the fall of my senior year I was summoned to the principal's office, which was never a good thing...

He asked me if I owned a suit and I told him I did.  He then asked me if I had ever heard of Harvard and I told him I did.  He told me that Harvard was looking for smart kids from public high schools to balance the many private school kids in the student population. Harvard had written to my school asking them to send one student to talk to an admissions officer who would be traveling to Chicago.  He then said, "You're our pick, and when you go down there, don't make a fool of yourself." …

I wrote for The Harvard Crimson and liked that. In the beginning I felt like an outsider at Harvard.  I was a nerdy middle class Jewish kid from a public school and not likely to be asked to join a final club. The Crimson during the 1950s was a true meritocracy, where any day you could find some future major journalist like Jack Rosenthal, David Halberstam or Tony Lukas.  It was a pressured but stimulating refuge and I learned a lot there. …

In 1984 Morgan Stanley offered me a job as U.S. Strategist. The job involved writing a weekly essay and traveling around the world (at the time I had never been to Asia) to see clients … .  I worked at Morgan Stanley for 21 years and now I have a similar role at Blackstone where I advise the firm and its clients on social, economic and political trends.  I have been to China five times in the past two years, the Middle East twice, Latin America once, and Europe many times, as well as all over the United States. …

I have made more money than I ever thought possible and now spend part of my time trying to give it away effectively. …

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:19 | 3115647 sgorem
sgorem's picture

i'm sorry, are there any Gentiles in the Lobby/financial/bankster/hollywood mogul/ mainstream media/government finacial institutional/ central bank/or pawn shop business?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:44 | 3115713 jjsilver
jjsilver's picture

you mean the ones that are mentioned so much in the Jewish Talmud, just zion


Jews May Lie to Non-Jews, Jews may use lies ("subterfuges") to circumvent a
Gentile. - Talmud: Baba Kamma 113a ( think income taxes that go strictly to the IMF)

Jews may swear falsely by use of subterfuge wording. - Talmud: Schabouth Hag.

Jews must always try to deceive Christians. - Talmud: Zohar 1,160a

"One should and must make false oath, when the goyim ask if our books contain
anything against them. Then we are bound to state on oath that there is nothing
like that." TALMUD: Utszabot. The Book of Jore Dia, 17.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:19 | 3115653 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

I predict that I will continue to lose my gold purchases in swift moving rivers.  Damn my whitewater rafting addiction!

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:47 | 3115676 jjsilver
jjsilver's picture

Talk about a guy with an agenda, I guess with these stats we should ban alcohol and cars right, shill.

and # 7 should read  Climate change due to weather manipulation

In the U.S. for 2010, there were  11,015  Homicide deaths from firearms

In 2011, 9,878 people died in drunk driving crashes - one every 53 minutes

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration FARS data, 2012.

50 to 75 percent of convicted drunk drivers continue to drive on a suspended license.

(Peck, R.C., Wilson, R. J., and Sutton, L. 1995. “Driver license strategies for controlling the persistent DUI offender, Strategies for Dealing with the intent Drinking Driver.” Transportation Research Board, Transportation Research Circular No. 437. Washington, D.C. National Research Council: 48-49 and Beck, KH, et al. “Effects of Ignition Interlock License Restrictions on Drivers with Multiple Alcohol Offenses: A Randomized Trial in Maryland.” American Journal of Public Health, 89 vol. 11 (1999): 1696-1700.)


If guns kill people, then pencils cause misspelled words

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 21:19 | 3117156 Theos
Theos's picture

Whenever anyone talks about gun control I repeat whatever argument they make, but replace the word gun with alchohol. 


They give up pretty quickly.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:29 | 3115702 toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Justice cannot remain absent in the financial, military, and political world. Prima facie evidence of American citizens being flogged, burglarized, and raped by central government has been laid bare for all to see.


Whether it's collapse, violent revolution, peaceful coup, public hangings, prison buses (!), or some other road to Constitutional-style justice, I'll take it.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 15:45 | 3115774 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

New California law in effect yesterday cutting substantially the red tape for Hollywood to posses sawed-off shotguns for use in movies and tv the same time Feinstein/Boxer/Gov Brown doing all they can to disarm the law-abiding public...

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:44 | 3116048 Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

Instead of a crystal ball does he deliver the predictions by gazing into his magic yarmulke? 

And I got a prediction too mufuka, for his 80th b-day bash there will be an abundance of the 3 following items: Strippers, blow, and matzo balls.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:01 | 3116128 Future Jim
Future Jim's picture

Who DOES have accurate predictions? No, seriously. Tell me. :)

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 20:58 | 3117082 chindit13
chindit13's picture

Bruce Krasting did a pretty good job. The greater ZH Commenting Community, on the other hand, was soundly defeated even by the likes of Byron Wien, whose competitive advantage might come from the fact that his head closely resembles a crystal ball. How many ZHers predicted for 2012 no Middle East war, no bond collapse, no dollar collapse, no euro collapse, no Grexit, no PM skyrocketing, no major deaths from Fukushima radiation, no gas station pumps running dry, no negative US GDP, no Government shutting down or censoring of the internet even to China standards, no mass relocations to "FEMA Camps", no soaring prices on boiled rope, etc. ?  Maybe the oft-maligned RobotTrader got more right than anyone else, which should only add to the disdain most harbour for him. Even if many or most of those negatives seemed logical or certain, reality has a way of dragging its feet, often dragging well past any of our personal expiration dates. Indeed, we could all be pushing daisies before any of these "inevitabilities" actually come to pass, having worried, bitched and moaned needlessly, and wasting an all too brief existence.

Perhaps that is why the truly smart man hedges rather than goes "all-in", saving the wear and tear on the psyche and daring to spend the occasional moment with a pleasant thought. Of course those intent on being miserable are going to find a way to be so. Even a cursory read through 99% of the articles and 99.9% of the bitter comments (this page is as good of a place to start as any) indicates most have succeeded in finding the misery for which they apparently have an insatiable psychological need.

Misery loves company and the company that is Zerohedge has found a way to monetize misery and earn an honest living from it.  Good for them.

Here's wishing you all what you truly seek: Unhappy New Year 2013!

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 21:46 | 3117243 Future Jim
Future Jim's picture

Good points, but some extremely negative stuff along the same lines as predicted on ZH did happen in 2012.

The Democrats have openly declared they want to disarm the people.

Obama rewon the right to indefinitely detain Americans.

I'm sure others here could cite many more. :)

What I find exhilirating is trying to save us from it all.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 21:17 | 3117140 Theos
Theos's picture

As a first step they ban future civilian purchases of automatic weapons, including handguns, with clips of more than ten rounds and require more extensive background checks on all gun purchases.


I've shot a gun a half dozen times in my life. I honestly dont like guns. 


This makes me facepalm so hard I broke my nose.


A fucking clip? Really?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 22:22 | 3117339 Contrary Casanova
Contrary Casanova's picture

One word for this Bull spit.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 00:11 | 3117636 AgAu_man
AgAu_man's picture

A 'Wien Bridge' to nowhere?

Pun intended.

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