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The Cliff Is Dead, Long Live The Cliff: Futures Soar

Tyler Durden's picture


And so after much pomp and posturing over the past 48 hours, much of which will likely reshape the layout of the GOP in both chambers, both the Senate and the House passed the first concurrent tax hike and permanent tax cuts in about two decades. The net result of this will be a roughly 1% drag on GDP, even as the US budget deficit increases relative to the CBO's old baseline, and the beneficial impact from the tax hikes offsets roughly two weeks of spending. In other words, while addressing the tax part of the equation, politicians delayed the spending part of the problem for exactly 60 days by punting on the expiration of the sequester, or the government spending cuts. They also delayed addressing the debt ceiling, perhaps the most integral part of the Fiscal Cliff, which has now been breached and which as of this moment means the US can't incur one additional dollar in additional debt.

So looking forward it means the US now has about 4 separate cliffs: the debt ceiling cliff in February/March, the sequester cliff in March, the farm bill cliff in September and the expiration of jobless benefits on December.But that's all in the future, and it will all be a function of just how quickly the GOP rolls over to once again confirm that when it comes to the stock market, America has just one political party. The party of up at all costs, which in turn is manifested right now in the first futures print of the New Year, with both the S&P and the DJIA futures up nearly 2%, and with the E-Mini up some 50 points, or half a turn of S&P multiple expansion in two trading sessions: a nice rally to show just who Washington truly works for.

From a big picture perspective it means one thing: the Fiscal Cliff discussions aren't going anywhere, and will continue to dominate the airwaves over the next two months, only this time far more attention will be paid to the debt ceiling part of the cliff, an issue Obama said last night he will not yield to republicans, and on which republicans said they will demand far more concessions.

In peripheral news flow, corporate revenues and earnings continue to grow below trend, and economic growth will certainly be impacted adversely as none of the uncertainty has been removed, but merely delayed. European final manufacturing PMI declined from 46.3 to 46.1, even as the UK soared ahead of Mark Carney taking the helm of the BOE. Peripheral European bonds continued their declining, with Spain and Italy reaching nearly 2 and 3 year yield lows, respectively.

That said the main mission has been accomplished: all relevant newsflow has once again been pushed back from the main news stream and relegated to the backburner, where anything not meeting expectations can be "explained away" using the Cliff as a scapegoat for both Q4 2012 and Q1 2013.

In terms of actual expected US data today, we have the Manufacturing PMI at 8:58 am, Construction spending at 10 am (expected to drop from 1.4% to 0.4%) when the latest Manufacturing ISM is also released and is expected to rise from 49.5 to 51.5, and finally the December FOMC minutes at 2:00 pm.

Some more on what to expect today from SocGen:

A last minute deal saved the US from going over the fiscal cliff means that the start of the new year is being greeted by a 'risk on' boost to cross assets. JPY funded risk positions have been bid up causing USD/JPY to vault 87.00 and EUR/JPY to set sights on 116.00. Long-term core bond yields and swaps have backed up in the process and a round of decent US ISM data today and payrolls on Friday could cause the correction to deepen in 10y and 30y sectors in particular with yield curves steepening in the process. A break of 1,450 for the S&P-500 could presage a move back up to the September'12 high of 1,474. However, critics were quick to pour cold water on the US fiscal Bill, and the lopsided nature of the deal that focuses on tax increases and is devoid of any commitment to cut public spending will cause tense negotiations to resume over the weeks ahead as the focus now shifts on how to raise the $16.4trn debt ceiling by March. The CBO calculates that the latest agreement will add $4trn to the US deficit. Nevertheless, the negative short-term impact on the economy (and sentiment) appears to have been contained as we now wait for the Bill to be signed into law. In the meantime, we suspect that shorting JPY will continue to be popular as PM Abe takes the reins. Data today includes EU and UK manufacturing PMIs and the US ISM. Germany sells 5bn in 2y notes.

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Wed, 01/02/2013 - 07:56 | 3114355 koaj
koaj's picture

Welcome to Athens

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:05 | 3114364 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

What people forget in the never ending reframe of …but … but … someone will get hurt if you do … this, that or another ... is that in the current situation people are, in fact, already getting hurt.  The debate is about who is going to take the loss.  So far it is the global elite who are dictating the terms. 

The farce going on in Washington needs to be stopped.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:21 | 3114370 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



The farce going on in Washington needs to be stopped.


Being institutionalized does things to a human being.


RED: Heywood, enough. Ain't nothing wrong with Brooksie. He's just institutionalized, that's all.

HEYWOOD: Institutionalized, my ass.

RED: Man's been here fifty years. This place is all he knows. In here, he's an important man, an educated man. A librarian. Out there, he's nothing but a used-up old con with arthritis in both hands. Couldn't even get a library card if he applied. You see what I'm saying?

FLOYD: Red, I do believe you're talking out of your ass.

RED: Believe what you want. These walls are funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. After long enough, you get so you depend on 'em. That's "institutionalized."

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:26 | 3114397 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

Tyler, any idea how much of a dent we would have put in the debt if the Bush tax cuts were never put in place?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 09:22 | 3114409 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



About the size of a dent on a Titleist golf ball.....but keep those good ideas coming.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:46 | 3114427 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

You wanna blame Bush for something, blame him for that insane Pharma bill he signed. That was the real bank-breaker, not the tax cuts.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 10:27 | 3114631 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

No.  We can also blame him for the two assaholic wars that cost us $ trillions, not to mention the human tragedy on both ends, or the fact that our returned vets are a fiasco -- more committing suicide than actually getting KIAd in 2012.

Following 9/11, the United States should have strafe bombed every freaking suspected terrorist training facility in Afghanistan, and blown to smitherenes the Taliban Govt. in a matter of two weeks, and sent the message and been done. 

Instead, the he cranked up the NeoConned war machine for remodeling the Middle East for benefit of Big Oil, Zany Zionist pro-Israeli elements, and -- as always - the Military Industrial Complex. 

War is Peace.

I didn't even mention the fact that we have troops in 100+ nations, or that our troops in the Mid East -- including on Saudi Soil for 20+ years -- have really galvanized hatred against us.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 10:44 | 3114677 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



I didn't even mention the fact that we have troops in 100+ nations


I thought Barry was going to stop all of that.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 12:14 | 3114966 Overfed
Overfed's picture

And O'bomb-a doubled down on all of it.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 09:41 | 3114515 TotalCarp
TotalCarp's picture

Lets be realistic here for a moment. Global elites always dictate the terms up until the guns start blazing and the axe falls.. But we are still faaar away from that as shepple do love themselves a happy ending..

Just remember: it takes a looong time and then one night.. But we are not there yet. The can will be kicked further and further down the road (uphill) just so that it will have that much further to drop off the real cliff.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:08 | 3114368 nmewn
nmewn's picture

lol...suckers...back to Hawaii!!!

"The president left the White House shortly before midnight. He had cut his vacation short on Wednesday to oversee negotiation of a deal before a year-end deadline."

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:18 | 3114382 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Yep-   Barry missed a couple of tee times, I'm sure he'll make it up.....

Fine job, Barry-  BTW, what's the cost of one of those jaunts from DC to Hawaii?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:38 | 3114408 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

Bloomberg's Tom Keene in the 6am hour  reprimanded any who would dare be critical of the O going back to Hawaii citing that he is a Father, Keene's assistant (is there anything going on with those two he called her 'Gorgeous' on Monday and before Xmas clutched a Barbie Doll calling it Sara) I digress his assistant chimed in that Tom was correct and everyone should just shut up and not be critical of the Pres



Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:49 | 3114430 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Why on earth do you watch that shit. You watch it, you support it. Disconnect your cable, cancel your satellite tv.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 09:15 | 3114475 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

Buck you are right but it is CNBS or BBG need something on in the background to drown out the sound of birds chirping

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 09:38 | 3114509 flattrader
flattrader's picture

If you need something to watch join swapadvd.com (Cutting out the retial middleman.)

and get one of these Free Satellite TV http://www.gosatellite.com/

Some of the free channels are decent.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:23 | 3114389 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Rally on! The algos are much bigger than you or I....It's all Bullshit!!!

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:17 | 3114380 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

In Athens you find more political parties. Just sayin'

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:20 | 3114383 GCT
GCT's picture

Thanks for a good morning laugh Ghordius.  If any of you thought this charade had a different outcome, you must ta been a dreamin!

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:27 | 3114398 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

y'r welcome. Hey, you get now four fiscal cliffs for the price of one. Time to talk about the Fiscal Cataracts

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 10:15 | 3114605 CVfriendship
CVfriendship's picture

Welcome to Earth.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 07:59 | 3114356 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Dollars make excellent kindling.....

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:03 | 3114361 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

Dollars *will* make excellent kindling.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:00 | 3114357 Racer
Racer's picture

Yes, the 'market' and the 1% is all they work for, the rest and the unborn are just debt slaves to be robbed at every opportunity

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:03 | 3114359 Banksters
Banksters's picture

A government of the crooks, for the banksters.  



Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:02 | 3114360 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

When a sheep falls off a cliff, is there a doppler effect?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:28 | 3114402 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Only if they have RFID chips implanted.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:04 | 3114363 westboundnup
westboundnup's picture

I have an ominous feeling about 2013.  Had it for a while.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:24 | 3114391 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

I had a feeling about 2010....and 2011....and 2012. And didn't that do me a load of good.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:38 | 3114410 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Yeah, but this year the FED has it's 100th birthday, as the directly elected Senate. Two pillars of Great Power Status & Might
Happy birthday

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:50 | 3114433 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Wasn't the Feds charter supposed to expire last week?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:27 | 3114401 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

I have felt the same for the last few years. My father felt the same for seventy years prior. He grew up in the great depression and fought in WWII. He saw the madness under FDR and virtually every president since. He had moments of hope but never thought it would last. Never had anything more risky than a two year cd.

I would like to believe I have a grasp on whats going on but think it may be impossible. It really does feel like the Matrix, here chaos is deliberate as a means to keep us off balance, cynical yet believe that we know whats really happening when, in fact we don't have a clue. I know I'm afraid and I think I know what will happen, yet the proof of my beliefs, the collapse of our economy, has not happened, regardless of how sure I feel. From our governments perspective, I can't imagine a better scenario.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:30 | 3114404 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Afraid? Afraid of what? Reality. Fuck that. Embrace entropy and prosper.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:38 | 3114415 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Entropy scratches when in the sack. The bitch

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:07 | 3114365 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Whoever invented Stupid should get the Nobel Prize. Oh wait.... I guess that's already happened.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:07 | 3114367 Banksters
Banksters's picture

If someone steals your credit card, do you have an obligation to pay the bill?  



Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:11 | 3114369 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Totalitarianism or Bust!
We are at a critical juncture and the group that is controlling the money wants more debt to keep the ponzi alive. Keynes himself stated Keynesianism would work best in a totalitarian state. http://seaneboy44.blogspot.com/2011/04/keynes-on-keynesianism.html  We are just having a faction battle on speed of implementation and what flavor (fascism, communism or maybe a variety of socialism).

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:42 | 3114419 smacker
smacker's picture

"Keynes himself stated Keynesianism would work best in a totalitarian state."

Which explains exactly why Keynesianism is the beloved economic model of socialists and their countless factions.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:11 | 3114372 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

These fuckers are all traitors of the constitution and the citizens of the fucking United States. High treason is punishable by execution with extreme fucking prejudice. Fire up a fucking woodchipper outside Congress and test fire the fucker by throwing Bernanke in first.

Fuck you all you fucking pricks.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 09:50 | 3114533 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Put that shit on Pay-Per-View and use the money to pay down the national debt!  2 birds, 1 stone.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:14 | 3114375 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Fitch? S&P? Moody's? Hello?

Useless fucks

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:14 | 3114376 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

After all of this, what does it mean? As a small businessman, becoming smaller by the month, what is our direction? It seems that the only business that will have a chance of prospering will be one that benefits from chaos. From fear and loss. Governments and their chronies appear at the top of that list, and maybe the casinos that will offer the false hope of a return when all they are really doing is sequestering the remaining wealth of the people.


Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:15 | 3114377 flapdoodle
flapdoodle's picture

The Republicans and Democrats are a two-headed siamese twin - two mouths make different noises but the same shit comes out the other end...

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:15 | 3114378 youngman
youngman's picture

The Obama voter on the street think this saved everything...but now they will see the Feds take more out of their check....if they have a job...if they get a Government check every month...they think they stuck it to the MAN....the Richies....to me what is Bernanke thinking.....I would think he knows he is playing with little kids...babys in fact...that will do nothing but put on makeup to get in front of a camera....if I was him I would stop buying today....let the interest rates on our debt to to market levels....then lets hear the politicians talk about spending...if Obama says he has to pay our bills...and interest rates go up as they are today....another percent or two should make him sweat with 16.5 trilllion in debt...on the other hand it won´t...he knows nothing about economics or a business P&L .....I am watching other countries and how they react from this.....I think China just jumped a few notches as the new leading country that the world looks to for leadership....the USA dropped a few...

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 10:20 | 3114614 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture


Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:30 | 3114388 CaptianSpaulding
CaptianSpaulding's picture

" Can we go home now? "


Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:26 | 3114395 Zosynspiracy
Zosynspiracy's picture

It's party in the USA!!!!!!!  Party like it's 1999!  Obama saved the country!  Godbless Democrats!  Harry Reid is my hero!!!!!!

What a fucking joke!  An entire fucking dog and pony show so that the American people can continue to bury their head so far up their ass while Wallstreet and the bankers continue to plunder, pillage, and otherwise steal the wealth of future generations. 

Norway's STATOIL is buying up 70,000 acres of prime land containing shale oil/natural gas in the USA....70% of the resources in Norway are owned by the PEOPLE aka the government....they have a $300+ billion sovereign wealth fund. 

Our country is being sold off piecemeal house by house, acre by acre.....and our government pigs in office just facilitate the entire outright theft.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:26 | 3114396 Zosynspiracy
Zosynspiracy's picture

It's party in the USA!!!!!!!  Party like it's 1999!  Obama saved the country!  Godbless Democrats!  Harry Reid is my hero!!!!!!

What a fucking joke!  An entire fucking dog and pony show so that the American people can continue to bury their head so far up their ass while Wallstreet and the bankers continue to plunder, pillage, and otherwise steal the wealth of future generations. 

Norway's STATOIL is buying up 70,000 acres of prime land containing shale oil/natural gas in the USA....70% of the resources in Norway are owned by the PEOPLE aka the government....they have a $300+ billion sovereign wealth fund. 

Our country is being sold off piecemeal house by house, acre by acre.....and our government pigs in office just facilitate the entire outright theft.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:55 | 3114439 espirit
espirit's picture

Worth repeating what really happened in Iceland.

Incompetence in epidemic proportion spreading throughout a country near you.


Wed, 01/02/2013 - 08:36 | 3114411 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

They'll go for 400 on the DOW. Watch.

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