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ADP Private Payrolls Spike To 215K, Above Expectations On Spike In Construction Jobs - Now With Infographic

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Yet another headscratcher in the endless litany of Baffle with BS data, this time from the ADP Private Payrolls report, traditionally a laughing stock when it comes to its NFP forecasting powers (we will spare readers the correlation scatterplot which shows a 0 correlation), which not only revised its November print from 118K to 148K (just so it mysteriously coincides with the November NFP number of 146K), but saw the December private jobs number surge to 215K on expectations of a 140K print. The primary reason for the spike, a +39K surge in construction jobs, supposedly in the aftermath of Sandy, as well as some +53 job additions in trade, transportation and utilities. Also, how ADP gets +14K financial jobs in the peak financial layoffs month (to avoid year end bonuses of course), is anyone's guess. And while we should worry about that unemployment rate rapidly approaching the 6.5% Bernanke QE4EVA threshold end (don't worry, tomorrow we will find that the labor participation rate mysteriously has started to grow again to actually push the unemployment rate higher now that the Obama re-election is no longer an issue), we definitely should not worry about America's manufacturing renaissance, as the country lost yet another 11,000 manufacturing jobs - the 6th month in a row with mfg job declines (sorry Ohio, better luck next time).

The business size breakdown was as follows:

  • Small businesses (1-49 employees) +25,000
  • Medium businesses (50-499 employees) +102,000
  • Large businesses (500 or more employees) +88,000

Industry Snapshot

  • Construction 39,000
  • Manufacturing -11,000
  • Trade/transportation/utilities 53,000
  • Financial activities 14,000
  • Professional/business services 37,000

By Sector

  • Goods producing 28,000
  • Service providing 187,000

Some of the new and revised, social-network enabled and friendly charts from ADP:

And yes, apparently ADP now does concurrent infographics of its data: because apparently even chief strategists and economists are have the attention span of BuzzFeed readers:

Infographic: U.S. Economy Added 215,000 Private-Sector Jobs in December, According to ADP National Employment Report

 

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Thu, 01/03/2013 - 09:38 | 3118246 docj
docj's picture

Sandy's fault?

don't worry, tomorrow we will find that the labor participation rate mysteriously has started to grow again to actually push the unemployment rate higher now that the Obama re-election is no longer an issue

Not quite - still have a debt ceiling to increase first, you'll recall. (Edit - actually, a nice bump in FUNemployment would probably make the "WE HAVE TO SPEND SPEND SPEND MORE NOW YESTERDAY!!!!!!!eleventy!!!" argument a slam dunk, wouldn't it? Never mind, carry on.)

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 09:55 | 3118304 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Was that a head and shoulders move, or just falling dandruff?

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 11:55 | 3118739 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Oy. ADP's bizarre measurement is not believable. But IJCs rose (just wait for NEXT WEEK!)

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/01/03/happy-new-year-mortga...

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 09:33 | 3118247 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Wait until they find out that 60 billion in hurricane re-construction money isn't coming. 

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 09:47 | 3118259 Acet
Acet's picture

The entire reconstruction cost will be packaged in some kind of Mortgaged Real-Estate Future with physical delivery derivative contract and Benny will print the money to pay for it and say he's helping the US housing market.

After all, it's less that a month's worth of his new and improved QEinfinity

(PS: By the way, the infinity character - with HMTL escape code &#8734 - doesn't work when the post is posted, even though it can be added via HTML edit and looks good on the "Edit comment" box. I suspect the ZH DB doesn't use unicode and HTML escape characters are stored as the character itself rather than the escape string)

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 09:46 | 3118267 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

When they realize we simply can't afford it...I'm sure they'll be good with it.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 09:37 | 3118256 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Fixed.  Everything is fixed.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 10:24 | 3118394 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Until ADP starts doing real-time, with raw data, it should be ignored, just like the BLS. Trimtabs view on this is correct. We have the technology to do real-time collection and reporting. We should use it.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 09:40 | 3118260 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Sandy 2.0?

<The revenge of Sandy.>

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 09:42 | 3118264 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Everything isn't fixed, according to this.

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20122533.htm

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 495,588 in the week ending December 29, an increase of 40,459 from the previous week.

Statistics, man.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 09:43 | 3118265 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture
  • Service providing 187,000
  • Did McDonalds have another massive hiring spree?

    Thu, 01/03/2013 - 09:49 | 3118275 wonderatitall
    wonderatitall's picture

    i live in the wake of storm christie and the temp construction jobs were soaring.  in nu yalk they hired people to "clean up" by lounging around and smoking weed. the obama economic miracle of hatred is on track to destroy us all.

    oh yeah, and fuck ohio 

     

    Thu, 01/03/2013 - 09:47 | 3118268 azzhatter
    azzhatter's picture

    Dec 2011 was +293 so it looks like we declined 40% Y/O/Y. Is Dec big from Holiday hiring?

    Thu, 01/03/2013 - 09:50 | 3118281 Shizzmoney
    Shizzmoney's picture

    This is expected.  The Nov-Dec-Jan number is always inflated due to retail hiring for the holidays.

    A bunch of people getting jobs that pay $8-$11/hour, with shitty benefits and hours.  I'm bullish on this economy, guys!

    Thu, 01/03/2013 - 10:00 | 3118321 Water Is Wet
    Water Is Wet's picture

    Wait.  You mean hiring increases at the same time every year?  If only there were some sort of seasonal adjustment to smooth out the trend...

    Thu, 01/03/2013 - 09:53 | 3118302 MFLTucson
    MFLTucson's picture

    The clown act continues as the clean up from a hurricane is now counted as the creation of jobs by by the clown in DC.

    Thu, 01/03/2013 - 09:57 | 3118316 lizzy36
    lizzy36's picture

    But Zandi called in (from Great Barrier Reef - proving that been WRONG is profitable) and said H2 2013 and 2014 are going to be AWESOME.

    Of course flying in the face of the fact that economy generally has recession every 4 years and we see a banking crisis on average every 7-8 years.

    Central planning is truely awesome.

    Thu, 01/03/2013 - 10:07 | 3118346 bushwarcrime
    bushwarcrime's picture

    I hear Obama is personally manipulating these numbers while on vacation in Hawaii.  After that he has a meeting with Lucifer, then he'll be back in DC.  Hookem' Horns. 

    Thu, 01/03/2013 - 10:29 | 3118413 falak pema
    falak pema's picture

    +200 K every month; we should be home by ... 60 months, if the world has not blown up!

     

    Thu, 01/03/2013 - 11:04 | 3118559 azzhatter
    azzhatter's picture

    We need to hurry. The next recession is right around the corner

    Thu, 01/03/2013 - 11:13 | 3118594 orangegeek
    orangegeek's picture

    And raising taxes with limited spending cuts is apparently bullish for the markets.

    http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-hourly-shows-todays-jump-of-36-po...

    SP500 hourly could reach a new four year high soon - while 47.7M Americans are on foodstamps.

    These markets are detached.  Q4 results should fix that.

    Thu, 01/03/2013 - 15:33 | 3119672 Shizzmoney
    Shizzmoney's picture

    Wall Street loves the raising taxes on the little people part.

    Thu, 01/03/2013 - 11:22 | 3118607 combatsnoopy
    combatsnoopy's picture

    Has anyone listened to Max Keisers' episode on "Hollywood Accounting"?  There was a bit where they talked about a movie producer who conned Michigan into allowing them to do business there, saying that they would be creating 3600 jobs with it?  Well they created all of 12 jobs with that project and ripped the state off.  Their govenor Granholm overrode their request to have that "3600 jobs created" in writing before they would agree to the project.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4r_iORpYa7I

    In between 5 -6 minutes into the video.  

    The government is claiming that there were so many "jobs created" yet 47 million Americans are still recieving food stamps.  I have credentials, my salary should greatly exceed the money handed out for food stamps.  Who the heck wants to be on food stamps?  I'd rather have purchasing power. 

    The masses led themselves to slaughter and decided to drag me along.  Meh.

    Thu, 01/03/2013 - 11:56 | 3118743 edifice
    edifice's picture

    Welcome to Costco. I love you.

    Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!