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Spot The Oddest After Hours Market (So Far)
FX markets and precious metals are continuing to trade weaker after hours along with Treasury yields (in some very gappy and unhappy ways) - but the S&P 500 futures are flatlining for now (as NKY futures push higher - merely playing catch up to ES since New Year's Eve). Odder and odderer...
and for those wondering just how much further this slide in EURUSD can go (following the huge year-end repatriation dislocation) - we offer a somewhat startling suggestion...
and Japanese markets are continuing their convergence (with bear steepening in JGBs and JPY weakness)...
as Nikkei catches up to ES after being closed since New Year's Eve...
Charts: Bloomberg
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It's S&P right?
What do I win?
Stolen money?
I will no longer play.
The 'American people' need demand it. - USA.GOV
Notice I didn't say "The People of America" cuz they don't matter one bit.
Financials buoyed, Commods anchored. Dont worry the CFTC is on the scene.
CFTC Commisioners Jill Sommers
Bart Chilton
Scott Omalia
Gary Gensler
are in charge of fair markets like it says on the plaque outside the the CFTC building. They are also responsible for (giggle) prosecuting manipulation.
Instead in the real world we have corrupt markets.
Bankster lackeys, bureaucratic imbeciles or just trying their best. You decide
The market is really enjoying this fiscal cliff deal.
Now comes the debt ceiling.
Wall Street will win again.
More debt, more money printing.
http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2013/01/yesterday-dragon-lady-served-beef-and.html
FUCK YOU, BERNANKE
Does anyone else get the feeling that the brain trusts in charge of making this sort of thing happen, think we all still check the newspaper to get yesterday's quotes to see what is going on? I swear...how dumb are these guys that they think they can manipulate shit right out in the open...where even a half dedicated "investor" could see it?
What a joke!
In the same vein, does Goldman Sachs think that so many Americans are watching reality tv that they would not notice the nice ca ching planted in the "fiscal cliff" bill...to pay for their new digs? How is every American not supposed to be laughing at Wall Street and DC just now? Honestly, who really believes capital formation will show its head again to these idiots...you know, within the next two or three generations?
DC, Wall Street, The Market...are a complete laughing stock...and it would be funny except for the fact that this shit is financial theft on a scale never before seen.
Gold got real weird real fast..
The trade is to dump USTs. Gold is getting dragged along in its wake. The only thing weird about is that it hasn't happened sooner.
Bernanke to fellow FED members behind close doors - 'you guys ASSURED me that bond traders were the smartest fuckers in the room - that they'd never get sucked in by that 'some members want to end QE before end 2013' bullshit, and only the dumbass spec long gold traders would dump here! What the fuck do we do now!?'
Whats the deal Al? Was that message to stave off a downgrade (that was never actually coming)? That release today makes absolutely no sense unless they want to actually try to blow a hole in the bond market. Or like you said they were shooting for a $100 gold knockdown day. They are risking the possibility that even the dumbest motherfkers start to actually wonder if these guys have lost their minds.
Speculation is that as Abe goes all out on JPY he has to monetize twice as many JGB and as a result ditch buying of TSY. This means bye bye only real forgein buyer of TSY and ultimately bye bye TSY
Well, I'm pretty sure that the bullion banks have been anxious to close out their short positions - they've been 2:1 short-long for a while now, and haven't been getting the downside action they need to drop that ratio, so I don't take any of the action in the gold market at face value. There's no way that 1.5 trillion+ deficits, Basel III proposals to make gold equivalent to cash and sovereign debt, and increasingly blatant monetization (under the guise of QE) is anything but bullish for gold. But the action for the past month especially seems to have a lot of people questioning their commitment, which would be just what they need.
But I don't see it being in their interest to burst the bond bubble - the one thing that will kill the whole game pretty much immediately is an increas in interest rates. They're already buying most of the new issuance, I doubt they want to deal with the incremental funding that would be required if interest rates start rising - it just makes the death spiral the system is in obvious to everybody, so I think the bond selloff might be an accidental side effect. I'm not sure how much of this stuff is planned and how much of the time they're just shooting from the hip and making shit up as they go now. I'm pretty sure they have an overall game plan, but there are going to be surprises along the way - nobody has complete control of the way all of this unfolds.
Thanks for the thoughts. The way I see it there are two roads here. The first is avoid an interest rate spike at any and all costs. For all the reasons you said. The second, and more perverse road, is to cause a crisis in the bond markets and an interest rate spike. This makes more sense to me than I want to believe. If we all agree that TPTB could give two shits about the average joe....then you let rates spike. That causes a full blown crisis and gives them cover to say the party os over. Forced cuts in spending come down hard and fast and it's actually theoretically possible to save the currency. You also get the fun side effects of a depression that lets the power grabs dwarf anything we have ever seen. Why is this such a non starter? Hyperinflation gets us there as well...but maybe they don't have the patience?
Like Kyle Bass said when you get to the point where you default or hyperinflate you don't have choice...one causes the other.
Yeah, I can see the second scenario you describe playing out eventually, and I agree with Kyle Bass' comment, but I don't think we're there yet. Sadly, the ruse being pulled on the general population continues to be pretty damned effective - most people still seem to believe in the fundamental possibility of fairness of the system, and haven't really accepted the idea that it's now just an empty shell, rigged completely against them for the sole purpose of stripping them of whatever assets they've managed to accumulate over the years.
Your second scenario is where they'll go when the general population finally starts to really get the fact that there is no winning for them.
That's exactly right. Hammering bonds is the only way the Fed can get Washington to take notice and cut cut cut spending. In December the Fed gave the all-clear through 2015, apparently thinking the fiscal cliff negotiations would include some spending cuts. Didn't happen, so three weeks later they release discussions about taking away the punch bowl - they didn't have to do that.
"But the action for the past month especially seems to have a lot of people questioning their commitment, which would be just what they need. "
Well, they can go ahead and cover any old time now. Nine years later and this crap has made me completely nuts. The committment keeps getting harder every year.
Who the fuck is stupid enough to continue to play the paper market and get ass raped? Unbelieveable.
lmao we need a "Bernanke Hitler freaking out in his bunker" youtube video based on this.
Hello? IS this the price of gold? This is India calling...
I thought you were referring to the S&P until you said it had to be a "market", and we all know that the S&P really is a "racket". So, what is the question again????
Does anybody really know what time it is?
Time to get a watch... I mean an iPad?
Does anyone really care?
Edit: I thought we were gonna have a little Chicago/Chicago Transit Authority moment. Guess not. Yeah I'm old.
Saw them live... with Cetera and Kath!
Not exactly Saturday in the Park is it?
about time?
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEC_8BjLQoE
.
Time Has Come Today
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsBwBct0_5U
that is the best version i've heard,
thanks.
these guys were great !
Chambers Brothers - People Get Ready LIVE version
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L82_N3UPPDs
.
The Staple Singers-People Get Ready
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_9SBySVEqg
.
Get your phyzz bitches.. something has to give
Speculation is that as Abe goes all out on JPY he has to monetize twice as many JGB and as a result ditch buying of TSY. This means bye bye only real forgein buyer of TSY and ultimately bye bye TSY
Gold and silver are under attack for reasons of national security and please hand over all your semi auto weapons!
Precious metals can also be interpreted as jacketed hollow points. Seems that there is a shortage and a price increase.
Just sayin'.
Look at that Nikkei go. Hyperinflation bitches! It's back in style with no consequences. Come on Ben, bring us to the promised land!
Someone will know when to get out, but that someone's not me, so I've decided to always be out
Omen: Will A Deep Recession & Market Correction Occur in 2013?
http://investmentwatchblog.com/omen-will-a-deep-recession-market-correct...
I am just looking at the Nikkei right now and thinking of Die Hard.
WTF with the Nikkei chump? They just rocket away to awesomeness?
I know. Japan is a worry. Fonz, these are my thoughts, I could be wrong or I could be right. Japan's stock markets crash first, a month or so out. Sets off the global market stock dump.
Compare Asian stocks to US markets, you'll chuckle, *shock/horror* but the Dow and S&P looks a little more reality based...just a little.
Their stock markets crash before their bond markets? Or I guess it does not even matter at this point. I am getting hammered tonight and we will get to the bottom of this.
Have fun. Still recovering from New Year's, rum punch and tequila etc etc
yo
http://youtu.be/Wzrpqu5Icd0
This is where I have to be to figure this stuff out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvQRRuckqM8
+1 for Crystal Method. Loved Tweekend. Name of the Game. Murder(You know it's hard)
Is it the chart with Bernanke's fucking pecker stuck in it?
Fuck these fucking elitist fucking pricks. Fucking die you fuckers.
+1 for "what did i win?" :)
Here comes deflation I've been warning about. Gold, oil, copper, all going to be smacked down. I wouldn't be surprised if gold hits $1400/oz on stop loss selling sometime in next month or so.
Bonds I'm not sure about. Deflation should signal lower rates but at the same time the FED is signaling they may end buying sooner then expected.
USD I betting on strengthening both because repatriating reversal as mentioned and macro deflationary dollar destruction and saving/hoarding of dollars.
The arrival of actual "deflation" in our collapsing, purely fiat-based economy and financial system will be heralded by the triumphant return of Elvis on the back of a unicorn from a UFO, and not until.
But keep watching the skies!
"Next year in deflationary Jerusalem!"
As much as Id like to see elvis ass fucking a unicorn you may want to review our shadow banking system and then tell me we arent deflating. TD has repeatedly emphazised the shaodow banking system as the single most important problem of the economy. Its size (and subsequent deflation) is even too large for the FED to fight it. The fed as been trying to tread water fighting it and I think recently its head has started to slip under. battle isnt over yet...
Oh yes, history teaches us that exponentially-rising governmental overspending and debt have always led to an appreciating fiat currency! Right?
Um, hmmm, hasn't it actually always been the OTHER way around?
But oh, wait --- this time is different!
If you actually studied the history you would see deflation almost always precedes hyperinflation.
You obviously don't have the slightest clue what "deflation" actually means --- or the slightest clue about monetary history either.
Show me the "deflation" that Mexico in the 1990s, or Argentina in 2001, or Zimbabwe in the early 2000s experienced prior to each of their hyperinflations or currency collapses, or shut the fuck up already about your laughable and nonexistent fiat currency 'deflation'.
Wikipedia "In 1999, Argentina's GDP dropped 4% and the country entered a three-year long recession. Economic stability became economic stagnation (even deflation at times) and the economic measures taken did nothing to avert it."
Again it always starts with deflation. The money printing is a response to deflationary debt spiral. The out of control money printing led to hyper inflation.
Wow you must feel stupid.
If GittyUP is using Wikipedia as the authoritative source, with it's sanitized scrubed and biased version of history, then akak would be right in his anecdotal response.
This is not entirely correct: Hyperinflation is NOT a monetary phenomenon. HI is a psychological phenomenon (losing trust into a currency).
The loss of trust into the currency leads to a collapse in the bond market. The collapse in the bond market forces the national bank to buy the debt with new money. But now the new printing (contrary to prior printing) does not stabalize but only acelerates the loss of trust into the currency. Hyperinflation.
yes see my post below about this. I agree 100%.
Ha ha, deflation... Like pouring gasoline on a fire resulting in deflated flames.
Lulz
I agree with you : we are in deflation. The FED can print 1 trillion if it wishes, it won't do it if people are paying off debts faster than that.
What some people here fail to understand is that when we are in deflation money raises in value and fiat is not money, but currency. Real money is gold and silver...
But first, there will be a flight to the fake safety of US dollar, then people will realize what is real money and gold/silver will explode.
So in the short term, yes you are right everything will drop. On the longer term gold/silver will raise beyond your wildest dreams.
That's how it will work out IMHO.
who the fuck is paying off debts? Choking on them, maybe.
Defaulting makes the debt disappears as well... Still deflation. I mean: the whole shadow banking system is deflating like crazy. Old Ben will have to print a lot more than right now. It's a black hole.
defaulting is much different than tightening your belt and doing the right thing. It mans you have reached the end of your rope.....Until that Hyundai commercial comes on telling you if you have $100 they can get you into a brand new Hyundai...even with no job!
Sure, but the result is the same: deflation. It doesn't mean its bad: it means we were overinflating fiat in numerous ways in the last decades and its now coming to an end.
Real assets will rise.
But first, the false fly to safety...
Anyway, we'll see.
I've been hearing and reading these kinds of pronouncements now for decades, and the sound bites are always the same, and yet somehow nothing seems to be acting like it should based on all the arm-waving soap-box theories. The only broad macro forecasts that make any sense are those that state "Things go down, and they go up, and fuck you."
I'll stick to geopolitics. The Iranians have spearheaded the move away from the SWIFT system for a reason. So like the guy who's trapped in a room with the light switched off, you keep moving in the direction of the light switch and hope to God it still turns the light back on, because if the basic laws of light switches no longer apply, then we ALL have a problem -- even the bankster psychopaths who work so hard to keep us in the dark.
Well im glad someone here is well studied. Most people dont understand the usual course is unsustainable debt --> deflation --> money printing --> loss of fiat faith --> more money printing -->hyper inflation.
Its not money printing directly that causes hyperinflation. Money printing causes a loss in faith in the fiat currency. The usualy response at this point is to print more which THEN causes hyperinflation as printing and loss in faith of fiat have a self reinforcing spiral. The only way out then is to return to hard currency.
So all the gold bugs on this site should be hoping for deflation to poke its head because we know the FED will have to print more. The US is only at the start of this crisis, not the end. Short to medium term we will face deflation. If the FED decides to fight it with ever increasing money printing then we wil be in trouble. Hopefully they are smart enough to let deflation take its course and let the debt be paid back slowly (and painfully may I add!)
Its interesting to watch Japan now because it seems they have come to the end of the deflation stage as the government has said enough! They will print and print until they are no longer deflationary. We will see if this leads to a loss in the Yen... only time will tell.
What do you think is happening with the 1,4 Trillion of new debt of the government? Is it injected into the economy, or is it parked at the banks?
75% of this new debt has been monetized by the FED. In 2013 JPM estimates the FED will be monetizing 100% of new federal US debt. So every dollar the government spends more than it collects, is injected into the economy and has been freshly printed by the FED.
Its very complivated but when a debt gets paid back to a bank, the money is destroyed. The opposite of credit expanding and money multiplier effect to make things simple. As money is being destroyed the FED is replacing that money. TD has an amazing chart showing the shrinking shadow liabilities and matching it with expansion of FED blance sheet via traditional bank liabilites.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-12/theres-problem-kicking-can-down-road
They are fighting a losing battle. Deflation will win until we go japanese and say enough is enough and then really turn on the printers! We are a while away from that. Most likely we will deflate/inflate (stagnate) for a while holdings things together.
Gitupyou
I will flog her indoors ass and then mine before i let go me silver and gold even if dem bandit racketeers manipulate the price down to 15/1000 (dis) respectively.
Will stack until i crap and am not even close to sticky bottom!!
Not to worry, WTFUD, he will get his own just rewards when he is sitting in fiat cash and US Trashuries, waiting for his mythical "deflation" and magically appreciating fiat currency to arrive, while both are trashed by fiscal and monetary reality.
Sic Semper Imbecilis
I think we'd be rather naive to think that the statements made by the Fed and released today were not simply contrived. Theatre. An act to help depress commodity markets as well as other currencies.
The bankers have been crushing metals for years just before NFP releases. Metal is their worst nightmare-
I think this is all bullshit. One would have to be pretty naive to think that a bunch of Fed employees- never discuss shit amongst themselves except at their "public" meetings.
I don't find any of this odd- rather I find it all quite premeditated and thus orchestrated- getting the results they intended.
maybe but dont fight the FED if your trading.
How do you not fight the fed if the fed has no fucking clue what it wants from month to month?
well said lunaticfringe.....good luck to Liesman trying to make it sound like it's anything but completely fuckin insane.
"The bankers have been crushing metals for years just before NFP releases. "
Yeah, or on the day of the release, and then there's options expiration, and let's not forget opex for the miners - that's a guaranteed ass pounding.
I hear you - NFPs, Opex, January, May, July -oh, and also if it gets light out at all, let's not forget about that.
Exactly. Again the fed shows just how many tricks it has up it's sleeve. If the markets stay afloat with the threat of removed QE, that changes the pace of things dramatically. I'll be surprised is we get through Q4 earnings unscathed, but remember they have access to information we can only dream of...
Exactly, FED minutes are preconceived chicken-feed ... you are the chicken, ... peck ... ... wait for it ...........NOW!
The first move is always wrong.
Yes, but everything's been jerking up and down like a fucking yo-yo so much, it's impossible now to remember what the first move was. If TPTB weren't busy selling volatility into the basement, I'd think we might be in for a big crash. As it is, I wouldn't be surprised to see the S&P shoot straight to 1700.
I agree Al. Indexes make all time highs.
FWIW
I'm now basically 49/49 PM/SP500 with the remaining 2 in HighGradeWeed & Liquor.
ZeroHedge....with a smile.
Bitchez.
Gold, guns and
silver
Food & Water
Seems like they're out to pound AU and PB. Especially's PB's tactical delivery devices with special 'capability', or devices with large 'reservoirs'. Know what I mean? This is not your parents' America any more. If it ever was.
I don't even understand the charts. NO idea what's going on here. It's all just betting games. Nothing to do with real life...
Lol a betting game yes, nothing to so with real life? Hmmm if you believed that why would you have an account at ZH? Just sayin...
In many respects, life is a series of gambles at varying degrees.
The bear in the China shop
Bigger washout coming......
So does Bernanke give up now and let it all fall apart or continue with Krugmans answer?
More than 50% chance he takes the Krugman route.
Bernanke PhD paper stated there wasn't enough stimulus. It's the Bernanke Solution as well.
Nice. Some one want to lend me some money?
I see the terrorist govt/banker combo have been in the taking not giving mood.
It is really hard to believe your own goverment would do this to you and allow the citizens to be raped daily of any attempt of savings.
I thought the USA had a Justice Dept.
Make me fucking puke.
You thought there was a justice dept? Where the fuck have you been?
The Death Of The Dollar Meme Has Been Played To Death http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-death-of-do...
Silver peeking over the "cliff" at $26?... Just saying.... come on down we will be waiting for ya.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=d1
I think some inventory change over going on at some shops... 2012 -> 2013 Eagles n such
$25 was my thought but I'm speculating. I would burn some powder at $27.50 but not all of it. Look at the premiums on silver dimes for sakes.
what is happening is wave 5 of C of an ABC correction. This has nothing to do with fundamentals. This should end for gold in the mid 1620s or so and then all will be great.
Thanks goodness someone at least knows their alphabet!
I guess that's a shot at making sense of the completely non-sensical. Two days ago we closed above the 200 dma and it was a whole different chart picture.
What is happening is another bitch slap by the fiat ponzi wave masters... and that has nothing to do with the fundementals.
The funny thing is (since my sense is many of us actually do use fundamentals) is to be long ES as protection. Harr!
Roger that here...
http://www.elliottwavetechnology.com/2012/12/silver-knocks-at-cited-wind...
Silver is below their support level of 29.62 so we'll see if their 26.00 target is hit.
29.21 session low, then rally back toward session high. Gap down will eventually fill at 30.45. Until then, it appears that lower lows are plausible later this month (18th) and into early Feb. (6th) ---
what was that overnight low again? oh yeah, 1626. That makes 5 of C approximately equal to 1 of C and now we can move on.
Send in the clowns! (get your circus options ready)
I could not agree more. Silver slays if on wrong side. But there is no price discovery mechanism anymore save physical. Premiums are enormous on physical but the metal seems to be available. For how long if this keeps up? This might be a great BTFD. I'll watch the overnight.
You don't want to sell PMs here. Not real ones anyway. They are trying to Kaminsky the shit out of you. The dollar is too trashed and they are printing too much money. Maybe another 10 points and you can put on a paper trade too.
Agree. Gold never moves this much at this time of the night. Something's up.
Nothing is up. This is going to be a year that tests your resolve.
Every year tests my resolve.
Agreed. We are going to get whacked paperwise but some assholes like us have no need to sell now do we? Some assholes even need to buy MOAR.
PM's being trashed pre-CHINA QE...
The house of Rothchild is back in the Gold and Silver smack down mode, may be thier last lie that the public will buy so load up, these bastrds are pure shit and have ruined the dollar.
'The house of Rothchild is back in the Gold and Silver smack down mode'
Good, let 'em lower the paper price of GLD and SLV so I can buy physical nice and cheap (when I'm not out looking for the stuff the hard way).
Send me your bitcoins if you don't need/want them. I am not offering anything in return if you do so.
1Miqw7N9F2b47pZr2zgNa9TCb825ESWqXf
I sent you exactly the number of bitcoins that your offer is worth.
There's a reason why 97.3 % of zh readers outperform all hedge funds. A profound understanding of all things ekonomic.
If you're one of the 2.7%, never mind.
Just when you thought it was safe to peek out from your bunker....silver down more than 3% - I suppose because the Fed is having an internal disagreement about endless QE. Silver needs endless QE now just to keep from collapsing?? Things must be much worse than we suppose (if that is possible).
Keep BTFDs and espousing the value of your your precious metals... I'd love to hear from some of you that drank the Kool-Aid around $1950 (or $36 for silver) and are now sucking on your longs
Specious twaddle from another diehard paperbug.
Why don't you want to hear from the VASTLY greater number of people who bought silver at $10 or $12 or $15, or those who bought gold at $750 or $900 or $1200 instead of at your disingenuously cherry-picked top?
You are an ass.
I was busy buying Chipotle at $80 and Costco at $47 (you know, companies that actually create value) during the crash and AIG bonds yielding 15% when you were buying gold at $1830 because the world was coming to an end. Keep BTFDs and let talk to me in 4 years when gold is trading $1375.
How does your Nasdaq 5,000 sandwich taste?
Silver is once again knocking upon a window threshold of opportunity...
http://www.elliottwavetechnology.com/2012/12/silver-knocks-at-cited-wind...
Is there further potential for PM's to be 'driven' (maniputed) down? Sure. But not to the extent or duration that their fiat/tertiary paperware has a much bigger down-side exposure. In a war of attrition, 6000 years of history has only one clear winner in the "PM vs. Fiat rumble in the Octagon": PM! Each time, every time.
So, let's keep our heads and shorts on. And let's stop the bleating like frickin' sheep. Unless you got caught betting Long on AU at > $1750 levels and can't hold your breath much longer. In that case, keep bleating Bah, Ram, Ewe, Ben Damn You, bah, ram, ewe!