Spot The Oddest After Hours Market (So Far)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

FX markets and precious metals are continuing to trade weaker after hours along with Treasury yields (in some very gappy and unhappy ways) - but the S&P 500 futures are flatlining for now (as NKY futures push higher - merely playing catch up to ES since New Year's Eve). Odder and odderer...

 

 

and for those wondering just how much further this slide in EURUSD can go (following the huge year-end repatriation dislocation) - we offer a somewhat startling suggestion...

 

and Japanese markets are continuing their convergence (with bear steepening in JGBs and JPY weakness)...

 

as Nikkei catches up to ES after being closed since New Year's Eve...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Thu, 01/03/2013 - 20:43 | 3120596 IridiumRebel
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It's S&P right?

What do I win?

Stolen money?

I will no longer play. 

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 21:30 | 3120705 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

The 'American people' need demand it.  - USA.GOV

 

 

 

Notice I didn't say "The People of America" cuz they don't matter one bit. 

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 00:40 | 3120797 strannick
strannick's picture

 

 

Financials buoyed, Commods anchored. Dont worry the CFTC is on the scene. 

CFTC Commisioners Jill Sommers

Bart Chilton

Scott Omalia

Gary Gensler

are in charge of fair markets like it says on the plaque outside the the CFTC building. They are also responsible for (giggle) prosecuting manipulation.

Instead in the real world we have corrupt markets.

Bankster lackeys, bureaucratic imbeciles or just trying their best. You decide

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 23:19 | 3121024 ball-and-chain
ball-and-chain's picture

The market is really enjoying this fiscal cliff deal.

Now comes the debt ceiling.

Wall Street will win again.

More debt, more money printing.

http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2013/01/yesterday-dragon-lady-served-beef-and.html

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 20:43 | 3120598 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

FUCK YOU, BERNANKE

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 23:19 | 3120996 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Does anyone else get the feeling that the brain trusts in charge of making this sort of thing happen, think we all still check the newspaper to get yesterday's quotes to see what is going on?  I swear...how dumb are these guys that they think they can manipulate shit right out in the open...where even a half dedicated "investor" could see it?

What a joke!

In the same vein, does Goldman Sachs think that so many Americans are watching reality tv that they would not notice the nice ca ching planted in the "fiscal cliff" bill...to pay for their new digs?  How is every American not supposed to be laughing at Wall Street and DC just now?  Honestly, who really believes capital formation will show its head again to these idiots...you know, within the next two or three generations?

DC, Wall Street, The Market...are a complete laughing stock...and it would be funny except for the fact that this shit is financial theft on a scale never before seen. 

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 20:44 | 3120604 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

Gold got real weird real fast.. 

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 20:46 | 3120616 dexter bland
dexter bland's picture

The trade is to dump USTs. Gold is getting dragged along in its wake. The only thing weird about is that it hasn't happened sooner.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 20:53 | 3120650 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Bernanke to fellow FED members behind close doors - 'you guys ASSURED me that bond traders were the smartest fuckers in the room - that they'd never get sucked in by that 'some members want to end QE before end 2013' bullshit, and only the dumbass spec long gold traders would dump here!  What the fuck do we do now!?'

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 21:12 | 3120664 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Whats the deal Al? Was that message to stave off a downgrade (that was never actually coming)? That release today makes absolutely no sense unless they want to actually try to blow a hole in the bond market. Or like you said they were shooting for a $100 gold knockdown day. They are risking the possibility that even the dumbest motherfkers start to actually wonder if these guys have lost their minds.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 21:33 | 3120763 VonManstein
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Speculation is that as Abe goes all out on JPY he has to monetize twice as many JGB and as a result ditch buying of TSY. This means bye bye only real forgein buyer of TSY and ultimately bye bye TSY

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 21:36 | 3120773 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Well, I'm pretty sure that the bullion banks have been anxious to close out their short positions - they've been 2:1 short-long for a while now, and haven't been getting the downside action they need to drop that ratio, so I don't take any of the action in the gold market at face value.  There's no way that 1.5 trillion+ deficits, Basel III proposals to make gold equivalent to cash and sovereign debt, and increasingly  blatant monetization (under the guise of QE) is anything but bullish for gold.  But the action for the past month especially seems to have a lot of people questioning their commitment, which would be just what they need. 

 

But I don't see it being in their interest to burst the bond bubble - the one thing that will kill the whole game pretty much immediately is an increas in interest rates. They're already buying most of the new issuance, I doubt they want to deal with the incremental funding that would be required if interest rates start rising - it just makes the death spiral the system is in obvious to everybody, so I think the bond selloff might be an accidental side effect.  I'm not sure how much of this stuff is planned and how much of the time they're just shooting from the hip and making shit up as they go now.  I'm pretty sure they have an overall game plan, but there are going to be surprises along the way - nobody has complete control of the way all of this unfolds.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 21:45 | 3120786 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Thanks for the thoughts. The way I see it there are two roads here. The first is avoid an interest rate spike at any and all costs. For all the reasons you said. The second, and more perverse road, is to cause a crisis in the bond markets and an interest rate spike. This makes more sense to me than I want to believe. If we all agree that TPTB could give two shits about the average joe....then you let rates spike. That causes a full blown crisis and gives them cover to say the party os over. Forced cuts in spending come down hard and fast and it's actually theoretically possible to save the currency. You also get the fun side effects of a depression that lets the power grabs dwarf anything we have ever seen. Why is this such a non starter? Hyperinflation gets us there as well...but maybe they don't have the patience?

Like Kyle Bass said when you get to the point where you default or hyperinflate you don't have choice...one causes the other.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 22:28 | 3120898 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Yeah, I can see the second scenario you describe playing out eventually, and I agree with Kyle Bass' comment, but I don't think we're there yet.  Sadly, the ruse being pulled on the general population continues to be pretty damned effective - most people still seem to believe in the fundamental possibility of fairness of the system, and haven't really accepted the idea that it's now just an empty shell, rigged completely against them for the sole purpose of stripping them of whatever assets they've managed to accumulate over the years. 

 

Your second scenario is where they'll go when the general population finally starts to really get the fact that there is no winning for them. 

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 07:07 | 3121412 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

That's exactly right. Hammering bonds is the only way the Fed can get Washington to take notice and cut cut cut spending. In December the Fed gave the all-clear through 2015, apparently thinking the fiscal cliff negotiations would include some spending cuts. Didn't happen, so three weeks later they release discussions about taking away the punch bowl - they didn't have to do that.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 22:10 | 3120843 AllWorkedUp
AllWorkedUp's picture

"But the action for the past month especially seems to have a lot of people questioning their commitment, which would be just what they need. "

 Well, they can go ahead and cover any old time now. Nine years later and this crap has made me completely nuts. The committment keeps getting harder every year.

Who the fuck is stupid enough to continue to play the paper market and get ass raped? Unbelieveable.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 21:57 | 3120814 SpykerSpeed
SpykerSpeed's picture

lmao we need a "Bernanke Hitler freaking out in his bunker" youtube video based on this.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 22:20 | 3120871 Serfs Up
Serfs Up's picture

Hello?  IS this the price of gold?  This is India calling...

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 20:44 | 3120609 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

I thought you were referring to the S&P until you said it had to be a "market", and we all know that the S&P really is a "racket".  So, what is the question again????

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 20:49 | 3120632 flacon
flacon's picture

Time to get a watch... I mean an iPad?

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 23:46 | 3120639 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Does anyone really care?

 

Edit: I thought we were gonna have a little Chicago/Chicago Transit Authority moment.  Guess not.  Yeah I'm old.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 00:03 | 3121092 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Saw them live... with Cetera and Kath!

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 20:51 | 3120641 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Not exactly Saturday in the Park is it?

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 21:46 | 3120789 blindman
Thu, 01/03/2013 - 22:24 | 3120885 CrockettAlmanac.com
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Time Has Come Today

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsBwBct0_5U

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 01:25 | 3121183 blindman
blindman's picture

that is the best version i've heard,
thanks.
these guys were great !
Chambers Brothers - People Get Ready LIVE version
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L82_N3UPPDs
.
The Staple Singers-People Get Ready
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_9SBySVEqg
.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 20:50 | 3120612 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

Get your phyzz bitches.. something has to give

Speculation is that as Abe goes all out on JPY he has to monetize twice as many JGB and as a result ditch buying of TSY. This means bye bye only real forgein buyer of TSY and ultimately bye bye TSY

Gold and silver are under attack for reasons of national security and please hand over all your semi auto weapons!

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 20:48 | 3120620 espirit
espirit's picture

Precious metals can also be interpreted as jacketed hollow points. Seems that there is a shortage and a price increase.

Just sayin'.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 20:48 | 3120624 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Look at that Nikkei go. Hyperinflation bitches! It's back in style with no consequences.  Come on Ben, bring us to the promised land!

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 20:48 | 3120627 max bucket
max bucket's picture

Someone will know when to get out, but that someone's not me, so I've decided to always be out

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 20:48 | 3120628 tooriskytoinvest
tooriskytoinvest's picture

Omen: Will A Deep Recession & Market Correction Occur in 2013?

http://investmentwatchblog.com/omen-will-a-deep-recession-market-correct...

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 20:49 | 3120633 chump666
chump666's picture

I am just looking at the Nikkei right now and thinking of Die Hard.

 

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 20:51 | 3120642 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

WTF with the Nikkei chump? They just rocket away to awesomeness?

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 21:00 | 3120666 chump666
chump666's picture

I know.  Japan is a worry.  Fonz, these are my thoughts, I could be wrong or I could be right.  Japan's stock markets crash first, a month or so out.  Sets off the global market stock dump.

Compare Asian stocks to US markets, you'll chuckle, *shock/horror* but the Dow and S&P looks a little more reality based...just a little.

 

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 21:03 | 3120679 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Their stock markets crash before their bond markets? Or I guess it does not even matter at this point. I am getting hammered tonight and we will get to the bottom of this.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 21:15 | 3120710 chump666
chump666's picture

Have fun.  Still recovering from New Year's, rum punch and tequila etc etc

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 21:10 | 3120697 chump666
Thu, 01/03/2013 - 21:16 | 3120714 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This is where I have to be to figure this stuff out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvQRRuckqM8

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 22:05 | 3120834 FoeHammer
FoeHammer's picture

+1 for Crystal Method. Loved Tweekend. Name of the Game. Murder(You know it's hard)

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 20:50 | 3120636 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Is it the chart with Bernanke's fucking pecker stuck in it?

Fuck these fucking elitist fucking pricks. Fucking die you fuckers.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 20:54 | 3120654 Pareto
Pareto's picture

+1 for "what did i win?" :)

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 20:58 | 3120659 GittyUP
GittyUP's picture

Here comes deflation I've been warning about. Gold, oil, copper, all going to be smacked down. I wouldn't be surprised if gold hits $1400/oz on stop loss selling sometime in next month or so.

Bonds I'm not sure about. Deflation should signal lower rates but at the same time the FED is signaling they may end buying sooner then expected.

USD I betting on strengthening both because repatriating reversal as mentioned and macro deflationary dollar destruction and saving/hoarding of dollars.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 21:06 | 3120674 akak
akak's picture

The arrival of actual "deflation" in our collapsing, purely fiat-based economy and financial system will be heralded by the triumphant return of Elvis on the back of a unicorn from a UFO, and not until.

But keep watching the skies!

"Next year in deflationary Jerusalem!"

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 21:18 | 3120723 GittyUP
GittyUP's picture

As much as Id like to see elvis ass fucking a unicorn you may want to review our shadow banking system and then tell me we arent deflating.  TD has repeatedly emphazised the shaodow banking system as the single most important problem of the economy.  Its size (and subsequent deflation) is even too large for the FED to fight it.  The fed as been trying to tread water fighting it and I think recently its head has started to slip under.  battle isnt over yet...

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 21:23 | 3120741 akak
akak's picture

Oh yes, history teaches us that exponentially-rising governmental overspending and debt have always led to an appreciating fiat currency!  Right? 

Um, hmmm, hasn't it actually always been the OTHER way around?

But oh, wait --- this time is different!

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 21:52 | 3120806 GittyUP
GittyUP's picture

If you actually studied the history you would see deflation almost always precedes hyperinflation.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 22:08 | 3120831 akak
akak's picture

You obviously don't have the slightest clue what "deflation" actually means --- or the slightest clue about monetary history either.

Show me the "deflation" that Mexico in the 1990s, or Argentina in 2001, or Zimbabwe in the early 2000s experienced prior to each of their hyperinflations or currency collapses, or shut the fuck up already about your laughable and nonexistent fiat currency 'deflation'.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 22:42 | 3120935 GittyUP
GittyUP's picture

Wikipedia "In 1999, Argentina's GDP dropped 4% and the country entered a three-year long recession. Economic stability became economic stagnation (even deflation at times) and the economic measures taken did nothing to avert it."

Again it always starts with deflation. The money printing is a response to deflationary debt spiral. The out of control money printing led to hyper inflation.

Wow you must feel stupid.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 23:09 | 3121003 Deacon Frost
Deacon Frost's picture

If GittyUP is using Wikipedia as the authoritative source, with it's sanitized scrubed and biased version of history, then akak would be right in his anecdotal response.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 23:20 | 3121028 Againstthelie
Againstthelie's picture

The money printing is a response to deflationary debt spiral. The out of control money printing led to hyper inflation.

This is not entirely correct: Hyperinflation is NOT a monetary phenomenon. HI is a psychological phenomenon (losing trust into a currency).

The loss of trust into the currency leads to a collapse in the bond market. The collapse in the bond market forces the national bank to buy the debt with new money. But now the new printing (contrary to prior printing) does not stabalize but only acelerates the loss of trust into the currency. Hyperinflation.

 

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