Will Fourth Time Be The Charm For The Market's Dislocation From Fundamental Reality?

Tyler Durden's picture


Sometimes you just have to step back and laugh. Three times in the last two years, global stock markets have lurched higher four times (fed by a hosepipe full of central bank largesse) only to fall rapidly back to the fundamentally weak reality of the global economy. If ever there was a chart that summed it all up - and highlighted the inexorable optimism that this time it really is different - the current chasm between Global Manufacturing PMI and MSCI World suggests either stocks are off in fairy-land again or there is about to be the biggest surge in the global economy since 2009 (right as currency wars escalate and the debt-ceiling debate in the US threatens more fiscal drag).



and meanwhile the divergence between developed markets (down) and emerging markets (up) continues to grow...

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Thu, 01/03/2013 - 14:27 | 3119341 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Potter can fix this.


Bought some VXX this afternoon and I'm praying Potter sustains a finger cramp at 3:30.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 14:33 | 3119381 IvyMike
IvyMike's picture

Doubters and denialists of the market's wisdom, TEH MARKET HAS SPOKEN.

“Saul, Saul, why persecutest thou me?” ~Acts 9:4

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 14:27 | 3119343 BeetleBailey
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Thu, 01/03/2013 - 14:27 | 3119344 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 What about q-4 earnings? It's pretty hard to hide from all the revenue misses that are going to be printed.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 14:27 | 3119345 dirtyfiles
dirtyfiles's picture

its all about costumers "feeling good"

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 14:27 | 3119346 Debeachesand Je...
Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

The fourth time is always the charm---------------Oh wait!!!!!!! isn't that suppose to be the third time-------------Hmmmmmmmm.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 14:28 | 3119348 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

Patience is a virtue.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 14:28 | 3119349 LawsofPhysics
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No.  There is a very real cost for capital (despite ZIRP/NIRP).  Especially after years and years of captial and resource mis-allocation and mal-investment.  Exponential equations are indeed a bitch.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 14:28 | 3119352 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

i think the markets rallies are correlated to ZH's popularity, ya know, fed crushing arbitrage.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 14:28 | 3119354 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

But this time it's different. And if not, next time it will be different.

<Tyler, stuff a rag in it. You're seriously disturbing my faith and belief in the "this time it's different" meme.>

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 14:28 | 3119356 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

But corporations got killer tax credits while 77% of Americans saw an increase in taxes! What can go wrong!

Corporate leviathan.


Thu, 01/03/2013 - 21:50 | 3120801 Ookspay
Ookspay's picture

Not my corporation. My business is family owned, we all recieve K1 distribution income which is taxed like dividends. The increase in taxes is huge, I may be laying people off. 

I also explained to my employees today that they will see 3% less in their paychecks due to obama's tax increases. Similar conversations took place in many workplaces today. It will take a month or so but this will become a further drag on the economy as people have less spendable income. I see a perfect storm brewing...

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 14:31 | 3119364 Aurora Ex Machina
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Little known, but useful, fact: Stayin Alive is the best music to keep to the required beat to do CPR.

Turns out the 1977 disco hit has 103 beats per minute, a perfect number to maintain — and retain — the best rhythm for performing cardiopulmonary resuscitation, or CPR.[source].


Nothing to see here, not sure why the first graph made me think of that.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 14:59 | 3119495 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Stayin Alive and Jive Talkin...

Two Federal Reser... errr... BeeGees classics!

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 20:27 | 3120546 Jake88
Jake88's picture

the next man makes a move, the nigger gets it.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 14:35 | 3119395 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

plus gold telling you this stock pop is bullshit... copper for that matter still bouncing around contained within a triangle. These two would be leading higher and not quietly trying to ease out the back door.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 14:42 | 3119420 Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture

Don't show the Algos those charts... you'll just confuse them even more.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 14:42 | 3119422 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Only Whitney Tilson knows for sure.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 14:44 | 3119430 q99x2
q99x2's picture

My car's been running the same way lately.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 14:55 | 3119481 DavidC
DavidC's picture

I'm going with the biggest surge in the global economy since 2009...!


Thu, 01/03/2013 - 15:01 | 3119505 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

There is a perfectly easy answer. PMI is not denominated in USD, otherwise it would go ~UP~ too.


Fri, 01/04/2013 - 03:36 | 3120210 Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture

I believe I see a tripple top-toss the salad-stock market circle jerk formation.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 19:36 | 3120414 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Wile E Coyote...

Recurring short squeezes propelling markets higher just ensures the Wile E. Coyote drop will be brutal ~ we are witnessing a mega crash in the making.

Whether it’s caused by fiscal cliff, debt ceiling, Europe or flesh-eating zombies invading Wall St, it doesn’t matter because another crash is guaranteed.

It’s a no brainer.
Charts don’t lie.


Fri, 01/04/2013 - 01:40 | 3121200 Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture

The insanity of what we have been witnessing with stimulus gone wild has at many times caused me to doubt what I clearly know about the history of government/fed intervention in markets.

    They inflated the tech bubble, allowed time for deflation to run its course then quickly set the stage for housing and now bonds. They don't want any part of the precious metals bubble that will follow the bond explosion, but they will be guilty as O.J. in setting the stage for that ultimate fiasco to come. But just like 'the juice', they will get off scott free, because the jury(the news and financial media) will be as clueless as the O.J. jury when the time comes to give the final verdict.


    When? Nobdy knows exactly for sure of course, but this last cycle of bubbles, as well as most all other bubbles have about a 4-5 year life span. These low interests rates are getting old now. The bubble is soon to be ripe for a poppin.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 02:21 | 3121234 nastaking
nastaking's picture

Samsung plans to launch its first BOCOIN B311 phones this year based on Tizen

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