This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Did Markets Or Manipulations "Save The World" In 2012?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Via Michael Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

This is a brilliant piece of propaganda.  Central Planners are trying with all their might to force people into behaviors and financial assets that are in direct contrast to their logic as well as long term financial well being.  This is the height of immorality, not to mention hubris.  In the end, there is no chance of any of this working as the reality on the ground will overwhelm all of the manipulations and lies of the corrupt oligarch class.

From the Washington Post/Bloomberg article “Almost All of Wall Street Got 2012 Wrong as Markets Saved World”:

Blankfein was more prescient. “I tend to be a little more positive than what I’m hearing from other people,” the 58-year- old CEO told Bloomberg Television in an April 25 interview at Goldman Sachs’s New York headquarters. “One of the big risks that people have to contemplate is that things go right.”

Well of course Mr. Blankfein was optimistic.  He knows he has the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve in his back pocket and they will do whatever he says with one phone call.  Furthermore, if things go wrong you just get a bailout.  Crony Capitalism 101.  That’s how the World’s 100 Richest People Got $241 Billion Richer in 2012.

Stocks rose as Federal Reserve decisions to keep benchmark interest rates at record lows while buying more than $80 billion a month of mortgages and Treasuries boosted confidence in the economy.

 

“In general they’re trained to analyze the economic data, balance sheets and so on. They’re not trained to predict political decisions. These factors have ruled the lives of fund managers in a more significant manner than what used to be over the past 20 or 30 years.”

The paragraph above pretty much sums it up.  There are no markets, there are manipulations.  As for the nonsense going around yesterday about a Fed exit, this is what I tweeted:

There is a 0% chance of any FED exit ever. This entire experiment ends with civil unrest and martial law. That is the exit strategy.

Full article here.

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 01/04/2013 - 21:48 | Link to Comment I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

can we just get it over with already

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:29 | Link to Comment lewy14
lewy14's picture

No - that's the point. They won't let it collapse.

One way to think about it is that the bank/fed/treasury nexus has "cornered the market" on vol itself. There is no way to force it to cover its short position. So no collapse - equity, bond, currency, or other.

It will take a decade to slowly expropriate all the essential production. After years we'll all be so dependant that it won't matter if what's left of the "markets" crashes.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:34 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

look up the story of stalin and the chicken he tortured and then he got it to beg him for food-kind of like that

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:57 | Link to Comment nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Agree totally.  They won't let it collapse, period.  Markets are 100% manipulated.  If you don't see that, then you're either not watching, have no experience, or simply believe what you are told by the MSM.

This statement by Kreiger sums up the last decade pretty good:  Central Planners are trying with all their might to force people into behaviors and financial assets that are in direct contrast to their logic as well as long term financial well being.

The system is broken beyond repair.  The elite don't want to let it go, so we live in this middle ground of horribly high unemployment (not gov't reported number), embarrassingly huge food stamp usage, and terribly dishonest capital management.  The economy, productivity, GDP, and overall happiness are gone.  That's what happens when a 'money manager' gets control of your life - they ruin it.

THE SYSTEM IS A SHAM.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 00:11 | Link to Comment Michaelwiseguy
Michaelwiseguy's picture

We need to nationalize the Federal Reserve Corporation and confiscate all their assets!

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 02:10 | Link to Comment SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

assets???

btw .. is anybody else getting these ads on their zh page now?
http://oi48.tinypic.com/i6cvgx.jpg

I kinda like em, but nana gives me all kinds of grief when she sees them on my screen 

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 10:10 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGwqJZWow3A

"You get me closer to..."

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 17:05 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

to save the world, let real estate prices (rent seeking) settle to half of today's prices.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 02:40 | Link to Comment SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 08:17 | Link to Comment This just in
This just in's picture

She kindof looks like she smoked her bible.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 09:41 | Link to Comment Landotfree
Landotfree's picture

lewy14

The Fed's job is to convince the lemmings to keep marching to the pit of doom.   The Fed has no ability to stop the collapse, as that is impossible, their job is just to assist the system into becoming as large as possible and to sustain it as long as possible.  The Fed does not have unlimited power, matter of fact they have very little power.  I have no idea what the article is referring to as far manipulation, as anytime any of us do anything we are manipulating something.   There is no fair, there is no safe, etc. those words do not exist.

Eventually the power needed to sustain the system will be overwhelming the collapse will resume and quite a few unfunded liabilities will have to be liquidated.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 10:50 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

The real power of the Fed is simply to "convince" people of something regarding interest rates, money supply, etc. and by this persuation, change is accomplished.

This is also why the shift towards hawkish the other day is somewhat tell tale to me.  The pressure is mounting and the tactics are shifting as a result.  Yield is drying up.

To me it feels like the topping process starting at least a decade ago and we now rolling over the backside.

By the way, I think the "manipulation thing" is contextual.  When viewed in the same light as the financial crimes going unpunished, HFT, flash crashes, "Corzined" funds, etc. - with the MSM being the conduit for the propoganda - the public is being moved like cattle from one field to another and closer to the slaughterhouse.  Moo.

 

 

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 17:12 | Link to Comment lewy14
lewy14's picture

It depends on what you guys mean by "collapse".

If you were to leave today and come back in 10 years it will sure look like things had collapsed.

But the process to get there won't be one of collapse, it will be one of erosion and drift.

Critically, the Fed (and the government generally) absolutely now have the power to stifle any kind of a preference cascade, whether finanical (market crash) or political (revolution).

They do this by selling vol, printing money, controlling the news flow, datamining social networks, etc... and slowly, inexorably, co-opting and neutralizing any possible opposition by creating ever greater dependency on the government (and the Fed).

There will be no uncontrolled turnover of the current regime, for all senses of the word regime.

No, nobody has the power to prevent the US (and the developed West+Japan generally) from finding its new (much lower) level. 

But they do have the power to prevent uncrontrolled cascades. This means they get to dictate the rate (slow simmer), and the endpoint (they own everything and everyone).

So you folks who are preparing for the collapse - consider your downside risk - no collapse, just a slow grind lower. Crisis entails some opportunities and there will be no crisis (and no opportunities for the "prepared").

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 13:56 | Link to Comment cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

Stocks rose as Federal Reserve decisions to keep benchmark interest rates at record lows while buying more than $80 billion a month of mortgages and Treasuries boosted confidence in the economy.

What?  Boosted confidence in the economy?

NO, it boosted confidence in FINANCIAL MARKETS, NOT the economy.

Why do these "pundits" keep confusing financial markets with the economy?

Financial markets are doing great thanks to trillions of (printed) dollars of "quantitave easing" poured into 'em since 2008. 

But the economy SUCKS.  And it's getting WORSE. 

And WHEN are these "pundits" gonna start calling it what it REALLY is, a freikin LOOTING SPREE?  LOOTING the wealth of the nation, WHY the economy is getting worse.

I never read "Wealth of Nations".  I already KNOW what it says.  Central banks and fiat currency are created to STEAL the wealth of a nation, quietly, slilently, merely by running their printing press and giving that new currency to cronies under the guise of "TARP" and "QE" and all that "saving the economy" bullshit.

No, they're not saving any economy, they're LOOTING economies.

THE SYSTEM IS A SHAM.

YES it's a sham, a SCAM done at the highest levels of government, which is WHY it'll never be stopped.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 14:56 | Link to Comment Michaelwiseguy
Michaelwiseguy's picture

TV news reporters are stuck on stupid on purpose. That's why they are the #1 enemy of the American People.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:42 | Link to Comment CH1
CH1's picture

Soon enough the rest of the world will turn against the Fed and start selling Treasuries, etc.

Here's Jim Willie on the subject: http://www.dgcmagazine.com/jim-willie-the-coming-isolation-of-the-us-dol...

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 09:59 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Just wait IWM getting ready to go parabolic and Then we will see a bubble the fed can't control

They always fuck up the bubble

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:30 | Link to Comment Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

That is what they have virtually accomplished with the $17T deficit as well.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 06:27 | Link to Comment Tom_333
Tom_333's picture

Agree.However your etsimate of a decade is wildly optimistic.Other big experiments usually had the staying power of 70 - 80 years.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 11:10 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

They can't stop the inevitable lewy.

They can only sustain to a point - that point being unknown (too many variable).  Their goal is to sustain as long as possible.  Chances are, what most people are doing right now is exactly what they want them to do - including rising frustration at the political process (spelled "scapegoats") and buying guns like they are iPhones (hey Apple... iRifle!  I better trademark this one quick - lol).

The system requires yield.  Like a machine requiring fuel/oil/etc.  When organic yield dries up, switch to cannabalization of the working classes (akin to biofuel instead of petroleum in this analogy).  We have been there for over a decade now.  The "bubbles" and "bubbles inside bubbles" run amok on credit/leverage are part of this topping process.

They will reach a point though where cannabalization will fail.  That is when the rug will get pulled out.  We are not there yet.  Absent some sort of black swan event (reasonable likihood I think), we may have a few more years before things really get ugly.  But, we don't have decade or more.  IMO.  2013 will be tell tale though - judging by market behavior (manipulated or not, it is lens through which we can see the movement of $). 

 

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 13:04 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Fed manipulation, Administration manipulation, Congressional manipulation, Big crony corporationism, screwing senior citizens, etc.

The Fiscal Cliff bill was the last straw. We are officially the NEW Soviet Union. Comrade.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/01/01/fiscal-abyss-bill-pas...

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:02 | Link to Comment ball-and-chain
ball-and-chain's picture

The Ivy Leage Mafia is amazing.

These Harvard and Princeton boys can keep the Ponzi scheme going with smoke and mirrors.

I stand in awe.

Now that's how you steal!

http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2013/01/yesterday-dragon-lady-served-egg-rolls.html

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:58 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

just a note to say I shorted the ESH3 today on the CME; from 1459. that's the March '13 contract for the S&P 500. I think the stock market people are carried away with animal spirits, or some kind of spirits, and the chart looks ridiculous; so I sold two contracts; $100/pt. going down, and we'll see how this works out. As Mike Tyson said, "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face". If I get punched in the face, you'll be the first to know. I feel strongly enough about this trade to recommend it; but you know I'm not always right; just most of thime. Cheers.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 00:35 | Link to Comment RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

Good luck with that. Now all you need is politicians and central bankers to keep their prevaricating selves hidden long enough or your face will get ripped off.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:03 | Link to Comment Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

The world's richest 100 people may have gotten 241 billion dollars richer, but they earned it and created millions of jobs in the process.

Who would argue that?

The Federal reserve has taken it as a new mandate to maintain equity share prices in the markets, to always be there to prop up the markets at any sign of a correction. To inject liquidity as necessary to boost share prices and to maintain ZIRP to try and force savers into equities.

This is all part of the free market. The 100 richest people in the world realize this and invest accordingly. Thus they made 241 billion dollars and proved themselves to be smarter and harder working than any others. The free and open markets reward hard work and enterprise. These 100 people prove that hard work pays. Bernanke is a hero, he has saved the world. Where would we be without Bernanke and the free, fair and open markets he supports?

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:07 | Link to Comment bobert
bobert's picture

Sincerely funny aren't you?

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:14 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Didn't even need to put a /sarc tag it was that good.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:18 | Link to Comment Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

That talent is too good to waste, should be working for CNBC...

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:59 | Link to Comment nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

MDB changed his name.  Junked too many times under the old monicker.

 

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 00:01 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

The fuck are you talking about? man rich people in that level don't do anything for anybody. cheez; louise. get a grip. oh, I see; you're just joking. ha. ha. had me going there for a  minute.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:08 | Link to Comment AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

*drinks whatever alcohol is available* 2013 is the year the status quo goes all propaganda on dat ass-- not good for sanity, temper, nor logic.

Babpfefingesicht bitches

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:09 | Link to Comment brown_hornet
brown_hornet's picture

JB=MDB

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:23 | Link to Comment Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

No chance. Jack Burton [of "Big Trouble in Little China"] , is no Million Dollar Bonus, though I appreciate his ability to use sarc to show how absurd those who hold the beliefs he pretends to hold are.

Most of my posts are straight up what I think and believe. But I admit the "full on sarc" is somethimes the best way to approach things like the 100 richest people in the world cashing in to the tune of 241 billion dollars at a time of financial and economic crisis. It shows that the cnetral bankers can reward their pals even as real economies tank.

There is always a risk in sarc. SOme will not get it and adding a sarc tag seems to defeat the purpose. As MDB never uses that sarc tag, many attack him not getting where he is coming from. MDB is really someone you have to "get", or it all goes past you.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 01:00 | Link to Comment Dionysus
Dionysus's picture

MDB is Zero Hedge's Stephen Colbert.  His "sincerity" as he parrots the economic propaganda spread by the corporate media in the US illuminates its absurdity, particularly when juxtaposed to the publications of Zero Hedge, and he is always in character.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 02:26 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

 

 

Can we leave the TV freak-shows and their phoney false-hero hosts out of it? They are all reading scripts, and when script guidence changes, so will they. They sell commercial air-time for corporate mass-media for a living, and they love doing it.

It's as simple as that.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 04:12 | Link to Comment The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

I want to punch that dipshit colbert in his retarded face.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 10:14 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Yeah, fuck Fox News.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 12:54 | Link to Comment Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Yes, just so. That is MDB for sure!

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 10:12 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

brown_hornet -> more brown, than hornet.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:12 | Link to Comment Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

So to save our world they destroy our children's world?

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:21 | Link to Comment Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Save our world?

Have you looked outside lately?

 

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:47 | Link to Comment A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

I don't know if I can handle being constantly saved much longer...............

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 14:49 | Link to Comment Conax
Conax's picture

+1

Cool Hand Luke: "I wish you'd stop being so nice to me, boss."

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:24 | Link to Comment LeisureSmith
LeisureSmith's picture

Drop Napalm to save the village. Just common sense.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 00:06 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I think the actual quote was, "We had to destroy the village to save it"; and it is one of those quotes that defines a new age; as Dorothy's said to her little Dog, "We're not in Kansas anymore".

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 11:28 | Link to Comment TruthBeforeAll
TruthBeforeAll's picture

Or as the Nazi mass executioner replied when asked "How can you do this?"...

"How can we not? Look at them, they just stand there awaiting their fate. We are doing them a favor."

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 10:16 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

To save themselves, they're pretending to save our world, and you are destroying your children's world by letting them.

 

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:12 | Link to Comment tooriskytoinvest
tooriskytoinvest's picture

The Difficult Part Is Still Ahead: Analysts Just Sharply Scaled-Back Forecasts For Tech And Financial Results For Q4 2012, Debt Ceiling Fight Will Add Fuel To The Fire, And Many Wall Street Experts Expect The Bond Bubble To Burst Very Soon

http://investmentwatchblog.com/the-difficult-part-is-still-ahead-analysts-just-sharply-scaled-back-forecasts-for-tech-and-financial-results-for-q4-2012-debt-ceiling-fight-will-add-fuel-the-fire-and-many-wall-street-experts-expec/

 

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:06 | Link to Comment bobert
bobert's picture

TooRisky:

Re; The bursting bond bubble. Have you considered investments that can do well if this happens?

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:13 | Link to Comment Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

They are laughing at us.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:16 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Crony capitalism & Banks are making a killing with EBT cards/unemployment. The more people that engage into program will drive higher 2013 GDP growth margins thru transactions fees.

/yawns

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:30 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

kind of like 40% of walmart's grocery sales come from EBT cards, and remind me again why ANYONE in corporate america(including the MSM) want anything to change.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:22 | Link to Comment LeisureSmith
LeisureSmith's picture

Full Retardism.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:32 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

that slimy little hebe blankfein and a bunch of his 12 tribesman masters of the universe cashed out 65 million in stock options the last few days of 2012 to avoid the jump in cap gains-I'm sure that whole fucking charade fiscal cliff wasn't scripted.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:32 | Link to Comment sitenine
sitenine's picture

“One of the big risks that people have to contemplate is that things go right.”

What the fuck is that even supposed to mean?

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 03:31 | Link to Comment Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

It means there is a 0.00003% chance that all the bailouts and stuff done to 'save the system' might work.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 06:47 | Link to Comment Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

 

“One of the big risks that people have to contemplate is that things go right.”


What the fuck is that even supposed to mean?

 

To me it means that if real and true justice is ever served, maggots like Lloyd 'God's Work' Blankfein will swing from lamp posts. And he knows it. "People" to Lloyd Blankfein doesn't include all of us. Things are going wrong right now, and Blankfein and his 'people' profit from that.

But I'm a twisted sumbitch so maybe I'm wrong...

btw as to Lloyd and "God's Work"

King James Version:
But you shall be named the Priests of the LORD: men shall call you the Ministers of our God: you shall eat the riches of the Gentiles, and in their glory shall you boast yourselves. ~ Isaiah 61:6

or:

American Standard Version:
But ye shall be named the priests of Jehovah; men shall call you the ministers of our God: ye shall eat the wealth of the nations, and in their glory shall ye boast yourselves. ~ Isaiah 61:6

 

Ask Greece about eating the wealth of a nation...

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:33 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Any Questions?   global money supply 2012 - Google Search

    Mean while we are back to 2008 levels in the markets, and gasoline is/was 1.83 a gallon.

 

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:44 | Link to Comment CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

They will pump the markets until their arms fall off, amigo.

All that "sterilized" liquidity works wonders.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:50 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Cunny, please don't fall into the trap. <>  Q-4 earnings/ According to the Fed. their ballance sheet hasn't expanded, due to twist/

  I call bullshit, and the MBS $45b program is not ordinary bond purchasing. I think the fed. is scared. A spike of 25 basis points on T-10s on a rumor?  1.60-1.95% over a couple of weeks?

  Those lying schleps in congress are fucking everyone/

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:02 | Link to Comment bobert
bobert's picture

Yen: Heretofore has not the Fed confined itself to asset purchases that were backed only by the good faith and credit of the US Government? And now by purchasing MBS's they are getting into collateral backed assets(?) Oh wow is me. What are we to do?

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:18 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 bobert;  Do you think S/T bond buybacks are the answer? (reverse repos)

 

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:32 | Link to Comment bobert
bobert's picture

I think the Federal Reserve should reduce purchases at every level.

I'm bothered by the manipuated low rates.

They might want to get out ahead of S&P and Moody's on this.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:55 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

bobert, S&P -Moody's has been telegraphing this next move for months. What I see happening is one of the smaller ratings Co.'s downgrading.

  Fitch/Egan Jones.  Real ratings agencies!

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 00:16 | Link to Comment bobert
bobert's picture

I can understand their hesitancy.

Remeber what happened to S&P's CEO soon after their downgrade of the US debt. Got himself fired.

I'm all for Fitch.

 

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 00:24 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Good on you. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Personally I'll watch credit risk VOL's and F/X flows.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 10:21 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

"Heretofore has not the Fed confined itself to asset purchases that were backed only by the good faith and credit of the US Government?"

No, not even close...the world's biggest prop desk and Maiden Lane 1-3 come to mind.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:35 | Link to Comment CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

YC, I know they are scared. The minutes are complete ass-covering statements and they want to avoid downgrades. It will cool off when the EU takes up the headlines and then, with another Draghiesque jaw boning, it will be risk on.

BTW, did you get a hardon when you woke up on Jan. 2? I hope you made a good bet on the fiscal cliff bullshit.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:52 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I have to admit , I was leaning towards that trade. You have to consider sequesteration in February, and Q-4 earnings. ( macro issues)

  Then we move into PIIG's bond paybacks in 2013.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 00:03 | Link to Comment CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

I'm looking for a near-term pullback in the DXY. If it has enough effect for me to dump my February longs, then I'll be happy. All the CBs have to keep in line.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 00:26 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Huge Cunny/ Look @ the H-4 chart.   Dealers are caught short/ Your trade S/T is sweetness. DON'T GET GREEDY

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 01:30 | Link to Comment CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

I try not to be greedy, that's why I've programmed my sell orders.

I'm scaling back on trading this year, only low-hanging fruit now. Last year, my doom trades got hammered. I think I got caught up in all the 2012 bullshit.

Any views on natty?

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 02:27 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Need moar macro B/S. Cunny/ The rubber.band is getting stretched. Those LTRO notes are more than 1/2 way in to maturity.

  If the Fed want's to talk about pulling (supply) back in, then they need to discuss OIS lending to European banks, and liquidity.

 Tyler was correct when he discussed euro repatriation in December.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 04:42 | Link to Comment ActionFive
ActionFive's picture

What is a H-4 chart? Four hour?

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 03:36 | Link to Comment Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

I disagree, I don't think the Fed is scared of anything ... if it ends of failing ... they'll just shrug.  The individuals connected with the Fed have probably been stacking hand over fist in various locations around the world since Sept 2008

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 08:57 | Link to Comment WTFx10
WTFx10's picture

They are afraid of Americans with still legal right to own weapons.

Guns don't kill banksters, Debt slaves with guns kill banksters.

The ass kissers of the inbred royals have been stripped of their weapons but they have been conditioned to be loyal subjects for hundreds of years. There was never a violent revolution to dispose of these elite criminals. Just a transformation of how the people think they are being governed. Wipe the royals and their bankers and the banksters puppets from the earth, the feudalism, fascism, socialism, elitism, all the isms the owners keep us fighting over will finally end?   100,000's of thousands will die in this cleansing of the criminality and exploitation of the planet. Will it save millions from dying in another world war of their making? Will something better evolve from that? Who the fuck knows?

It will end violently when ever is starts, because it always has. Its the finish I like to think will be better but it won't. Exploitation by the owners is better than evolving for the rest of us because they do not want to be like the rest of us. They will orchestrate the murder of millions and still own all they have stolen,exploited and subjugated.

"The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks." John Dalberg Lord Acton

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:54 | Link to Comment bobert
bobert's picture

S&P 500 and gas at the pump are somehow bifurcated. Will these two correlate again?

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:10 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

In nominal terms, they'll both go to the moon, but it in real terms, oil will dramatically outperform the S&P 500.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 00:14 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Exactly. Keep this right in the front part of your mind. it happens just barely slowly enough that people adapt and bitch and then it becomes the new normal; basically what the Muslim bought us so far is double the price of gas and no job; but there's more fun comin, fer sure. The analogy of boiling the frog by turning up the heat so slow he don't notice it's not a hot tub until he just nods off and takes a permanent nap, is an excellent one.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:39 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I had a lawyer one time who was convinced his mail was being read. Having friends who worked in that place I had to tell him "they're too busy to do that." They really are...and so are the so called "Central Planners." The idea that they have any idea what they're doing vis a vis "economic implications" is assigning motivation WAY beyond they're pay grade. The only thing The Chairman is doing is ramming interest rates "at or near zero" in order to finance (illegally i might add) an out of control Federal Government. PERIOD. Anything happening to do with "it" just "happens to be." And that's it folks!

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:58 | Link to Comment bobert
bobert's picture

(The girl in the "Bad Idea Tea Shirt" ad at the left of my screen as I type this is driving me crazy.)

Anyway...what I was goin to say Vet was: Perhaps you are correct, or perhaps they at the top are not completely unified yet.

 

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:30 | Link to Comment khakuda
khakuda's picture

...damn it, now I'm getting Christian dating ads. Going to hell.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:28 | Link to Comment khakuda
khakuda's picture

I love the girl in the t shirt ads on ZH. I try and surf as much porn as possible prior to reading ZH just to prime the google ad servers

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:36 | Link to Comment bobert
bobert's picture

Must of been my kids.

Honest I didn't do it.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 00:20 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

damn; that's a good excuse for surfin porn. I wish I was so lucky; I got picture of that goddam indonesian half-bastard hand puppet of a "president" on my left half. fuckin makes me want to barf.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 00:40 | Link to Comment bobert
bobert's picture

Yeah, what link have you been clicking on?

On second thought never mind :)

It's going to be a long four years isn't it?

G nite.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 03:45 | Link to Comment Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

"It's going to be a long four years isn't it?"

The 'bright side' will be that by the time BO's 4 years are done, it is highly likely this farce-n-fraud economy will be so wrecked even his supporters will be cursing him.  His 'legacy' will be spit for all of time and his kids will be hearing it for the rest of their lives.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:42 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

And ... with uncle Benny making the trend line positive 99% of the time ... well ... he's made it impossoble for shitheads like Goldman and BOA to hardly ever have a losing day.

Talking about money laundering!!!!!!!

May they all rot in hell

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 10:27 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Now now, they're perfectly capable of toddling up to the discount window themselves now that they're all holding companies; they can manipulate just fine without The Sacko / The Henry, but they'd rather pump up those reserves with Ben so they need never stress over stress tests.

 

"May they all rot in hell"

Pretty much what they wish for the American people.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:05 | Link to Comment MarkTwainsMustache
MarkTwainsMustache's picture

"The statesman who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals, would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it." 
Adam Smith

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:25 | Link to Comment khakuda
khakuda's picture

It is hard to imagine that Ben Bernanke does not go down in the history books as THE man that pushed the dollar, the reserve currency of its day, over the edge into a major currency crisis with his infinite money printing. The dollar will lose reserve status as a result of his policies and, try as they will, they will only have themselves to blame.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 00:01 | Link to Comment economessed
economessed's picture

Best quote of the decade: "It's not a market.  It's a crime scene."

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 00:24 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

While the market soared my business soured as I found out the Hliday 2012 sales numbers. Getting to see the Dec EDI report across my sector, including the results of about 100 other companies, was rather eye opening.

You want to hear the numbers from Walmart, Target, etc? Do you really want to know? You might not like it.

30% of the ordered inventory sold, including pre Christmas markdowns. From a buy that was already cut 40% in August.

30% OF THE INVENTORY SOLD. Pathetic does't even cover it. There is no cash to buy new inventory for 2013. 2012 RETAIL WAS A TOTAL JOKE. Every reported number by a publicly traded retailer might as well have come from the BLS.

But remember US auto sales were the best since 2007, hahahaha with almost 900k cars left on GM lots at the end of the year.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 00:33 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

No shit; those are some serious numbers. If this is a fuckin recovery, I'd rather be sick, thanks anyway.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 00:35 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

I thank you for sharing these numbes with us.

Your posts are quite realistic and I always learn something.

Thx again.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 09:55 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Thanks for the compliment. I just try to give a glimpse into the world of selling into the ticker symbols that seem to behave irrationally based on what I see. It's like being in the infantry, having a general sitting in Washington telling you the battle is going well, and you're watching everyone get blown away. Then you watched the field commander that led 1000 soldiers to their death get promoted.

I should add that I will be getting updated numbers next week on the clearance sale. Much of the temporary display inventory gets sent back to the vendors because it was bought using guaranteed sale terms.

Items on the shelf are put on clearance at Target. Walmart just ships back to vendors, or sells the inventory off to international wholesalers. Sometimes Walmart will just leave inventory in the store for years at full price. Target did sell the majority of their Christmas seasonal inventory post holiday, however they did so at 50% off and then 75% off. I won't get this breakdown until next week.

The #1 toy at Target this year by volume was Lego sets. 75% of the inventory sold during the BOGO 50% sale.

I guess the story is that the American consumer will no longer buy anything unless it is on sale. I think JC Penney proved that.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 00:55 | Link to Comment WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot's picture

There is a 0% chance of any FED exit ever. This entire experiment ends with civil unrest and martial law. That is the exit strategy

No offense to Mike Krieger, but NO SHIT! Anyone with half a brain could see this coming. Now we shift to figure out how to deal with it.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 00:56 | Link to Comment WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot's picture

_


Sat, 01/05/2013 - 03:27 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Markets are 2007 levels. (4 trillion dollars) and 100% increase in commodites later. Dark inventory and shadow banking are just the same.

  That Mother Fucker John Corzine has a trading license, and I can't buy a "Big Gulp" in Shitsville.

R we better off Bitchez?

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 12:45 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

You got it

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 03:40 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Something saved the world? I missed it. What happened?

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 04:21 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

 

 

OT: Looks like both sides finally realized they need to get serious and work together to get this done.

--

Fatah rally in Gaza marks unity bid with Hamas
 
January 05, 2013 12:46 AM
 
Associated Press
 
GAZA CITY: Tens of thousands of Fatah supporters rallied in the Hamas stronghold of Gaza Friday for the first time since they were routed from power there in 2007.
 
The rally, approved by Gaza’s Hamas rulers, marks a renewed attempt by the rival Palestinian factions to show unity following a fierce Hamas battle with Israel in November and Fatah’s subsequent recognition bid at the United Nations.
 
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jan-05/201022-fatah-ra...

--

These two sides were so polarized and separated as to be irreconcilable, but now they obviously respect each others capacities and contributions. That outcome is a result of a protracted series of catastrophic policies from a very low-grade Israeli leadership, plus a gaggle of outmoded elites.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 10:32 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Fatah and Hamas fall in and out of love more than teenagers on MDMA and spanish fly.

One might consider it master manipulation by that low-grade Israeli leadership that has kept them in-fighting with each other for so long.

I miss Yassir; that dude was good TV. ;)

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 04:44 | Link to Comment Mr. Hudson
Mr. Hudson's picture

 

: "There is a 0% chance of any FED exit ever. This entire experiment ends with civil unrest and martial law. That is the exit strategy."

Martial law "yes". Civil unrest "yes", but any civil unrest will be squelched immediately. Look at what happened in Wisconsin. Look at what happened to Occupy Wall Street. People will protest, but it will prove to be ineffective against a tyrannical government. Americans are too divided and too scared of the government to take a serious stand against our corrupt political system.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 07:18 | Link to Comment Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

Good point if your already divided you are about to be conquered.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 08:30 | Link to Comment Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

While I understand where you are coming from Mr. Hudson,

Just remember last year in the big apple.  New Yorks finest going after a lone-gunman who shot his ex-boss to death.  Now remember the reaction of the over-weight police officers who proceded to aprehend this criminal.

They shot the whole place up friend, they injured 11 innocent people as they fired indescriminantly all over the place, as the lone gunman calmly popped off to heaven.

You have fuck all to fear if this is the standard response to a lone gunman, much calmer and more level-headed folks could take out a fucking platoon of New York's finest if need be, (after watching this incident).

If it comes, it will come, prepare accordingly

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 10:02 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

I have family members who can pick off a deer cleanly from 100 yards with a hunting rifle. Not just kill it, pick it off as to not spoil an ounce of meat.

There might be one or two guys on a squad that can shoot, the rest carry a weapon and don't know how to use it.

That is why They want to take away the guns. They know they are no match for a group of angry white hunters with everything to lose.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 06:15 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

this article hits the nail on the head. THe current trajectory of the PREVIOUS manipulation; aka the Reaganomics-Thatcherist mantra has created this Oligarchy world of short term capitalism and deregulated supply side hegemony.

Now having created this model, we are sowing what we have reaped.

So the "sin" that we have propagated, aka financialisation on massive scale and the resultant "outsourcing to cheap labour countries", is now coming home to roost.

The 2008 meltdown and the knee jerk of Oligarchs to save their wealth all based on BORROWED money, by transferring the debt on the public balance sheet and stashing their fiat/WS asset wealth in Caymanista investment vehicles, is now unsustainable.

SO this whole QE/Draghi shenanigans is nothing more than smoke and mirrors to maintain this criminal status quo. 2012 is but the outcome of a 30 year mad spree where we neglected peak OIL purposely, and stepped on the fiat accelerator like a mad driver on Route 66 to land of milk n honey; all for free! 

Why now cry about what has transpired since 2008 if you don't go back to the source of that original sin?

The hegemonial "statist" model was already then in place! Only the rest of the world suffered it, not the first world  consumers, invited to participate in the fiat debt fest. Ad Nauseum. "THe sun never sets on our NWO perpetual capitalist machine!"...Shades of thousand year Reich! 

Having had the rug pulled out from under their feet AS A RESULT OF THEIR OWN MAD HUBRIS, the Oligarchs now say to the first world people: game over. You burn, we stay safe! 

Damn right, despotism and police state coming to first world big time. Cairo and Baghdad, Saigon and Kabul are now on equal footing with Athens today, Barcelona tommorow and GOtham CIty in five years down the road.

What you sow you reap. That is history. Don't cry for me Argentina! 

And btw don't blame Keynes! He must be laffing his head off up there! 

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 06:17 | Link to Comment sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

The world was saved?

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 10:37 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Just don't look directly at the stack of derivatives, or mark anything to market, or stop QE and you'll be fine.

"They called him Mother Theresa, on account of the length of his habit."

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 08:35 | Link to Comment Racer
Racer's picture

 “One of the big risks that people have to contemplate is that things go right.”

That's on par for stupidity with Biden's  'have to spend money to stop from going bankrupt'

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 08:59 | Link to Comment eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

If I was one of the 100 riches with their masters of the world mind-set I would probaly try to kill off 3/4 of the world population. They don't need all of us messing up their and their childrens world and using up all the resources. 

Look out below!

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 10:05 | Link to Comment Uskatex
Uskatex's picture

In fact, I am really surprised that the last big pandemic outbreak was the Asian flu in 1958. Since then, despite the huge increase in world population and in population concentration in large cities, we had no pandemics, at least in the form of a rapidly spreading illness like flu. AIDS is another history.

I hope this lack of pandemics may last, but I too, if I were one of the "masters" - with no ethics - would seriously consider "clean" ways to reduce world population. Let's be prepared...

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 10:03 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

The world was saved. Except 52% oF Americans and a shitload of Euro people are poor as fuck

But the world was saved, right?

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 10:59 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Concerning a subject that ZH has often treated here aka the US car manufacturing industry spike and "channel stuffing".

THe statistics for 2012 are out and they tell their own story. Sale of vehicles is up  by 13.4 % in 2012. Total sales in US now eqaul 14.5 million vehicles. Out of this GM has 17.9 % share (down from 19.6 in 2011) and Ford has 15.5 (down from 16.8 in 2011).

Toyota comes in third at 14.4 % with Chrysler 4th at 11.4%.

This does not sound like channel stuffing. This is solid growth, unlike in Euro zone which is in meltdown. 

Also, for 2013 onwards the prediction is volume will increase back to over 16 million vehicles; going upto to 15.3 Milln this year.

REminder 2005 high was 17 million vehicles. The industry looks like becoming a cash cow again.

Any comments on this? 

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 12:05 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

GM playing at Fannie n Fred??

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 16:55 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Hyundai and Kia are selling under cost in France. French found out about it because Peugeot and Renault were not selling.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 11:51 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

How many had more than 0.5% down at purchase? ;)

Also...how many of those are fleet purchases from gubbamint block grants for who knows what?

"Jesus, fire up the Escalade; it's time to deliver your friends here to the ICE detention center"

Sun, 01/06/2013 - 13:24 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

Once the gov'ment steps in they don't step out...  the UAW will be allowed to slowly die (new hires are screwed) while the top brass will just dine with the lobbyists to keep the contracts rolling in and the loose loans for the unwashed

 

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 14:31 | Link to Comment AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Here's the stats on channel stuffing by Detroit.

http://fall2012scmtransportationblog.wordpress.com/2012/12/05/detroit-au...

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 11:14 | Link to Comment AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

The fact that Fed manipulation has worked for 4 years running is fueling the perception that nothing can ever go wrong with the government in control of the economy.  A good example is the idiocy of bailing out NY and NJ with $60 billion we don't have.  What Chuck Shumer calls "unconscionable" if we don't.  That's the kind of arrogance that will take us down eventually.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 11:47 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

He's the Senator from NY, WTF did you expect him to say?!

D'you think he's the one that loaded the bill with unrelated pork?

Don't get me wrong. I fucking hate Chuckie "Where's My Check?" Schumer and consider him a disgrace to the senate floor, but trying to slam the guy's rhetoric in defense of his state? That's just libertarded!

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 14:29 | Link to Comment AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

I'm slamming the guy's rhetoric because it is a good example of the arrogance that's taking this country down.  He could have argued from the standpoint of the inability of his state to provide the needed infrastructure and other improvements.  But, instead he argued that it was "unconscionable" to deny any amount of money those states asked for, as if there is an unlimited supply of money at the federal level and we are greedy bastards if we don't give it to them.

Get it?

Sun, 01/06/2013 - 13:27 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

it is because all balance sheets have to be ran at a negative since holding money is a sin via ZIRP.  So of course when disaster strikes the hands come out for beggin as 'it's not their fault that bad things happen'

spend everything you can and when anything bad happens, say 'how could anyone of known?' and get in line for a bailout

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 16:56 | Link to Comment polo007
polo007's picture

http://www.ifa.com/pdf/EllisCharlesThe_Loser's_Game1975.pdf

The people who came to Wall Street in the 1960's had always been – and expected always to be – winners. They had been presidents of their high school classes, varsity team captains, and honor students. They were bright, attractive, out-going and ambitious. They were willing to work hard and take chances because our society had given them many and frequent rewards for such behavior. They had gone to Yale and the Marines and Harvard Business School. And they were quick to recognize that the big Winner's Game was being played in Wall Street.

It was a glorious, wonderful, euphoric time. It was a time when almost anybody who was smart and willing to work hard could win. And almost all of us did.

The trouble with Winner's Games is that they tend to self-destruct because they attract too much attention and too many players – all of whom want to win. (That's why gold rushes finish ugly.) But in the short run, the rushing in of more and more players seeking to win expands the apparent reward. And that's what happened in Wall Street during the 1960's. Riding the tide of a bull market, institutional investors obtained such splendid rates of return in equities that more and more money was turned over to them – particularly in mutual funds and pension funds – which fueled the continuation of their own bull market. Institutional investing was a Winner's Game and the winners knew that by playing it faster, they would increase the rate of winnings. But in the process, a basic change occurred in the investment environment; the market came to be dominated by the institutions.

In just ten years, the market activities of the investing institutions have gone from only 30 percent of total public transactions to a whopping 70 per cent. And that has made all the difference. No longer are the "New Breed on Wall Street" in the minority; they are now the majority. The professional money manager isn't competing any longer with amateurs who are out of touch with the market; now he competes with other experts.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 18:10 | Link to Comment DR
DR's picture

"The market value of global equities increased by about $6.5 trillion last year"

 

Ok, if the hedge funds didn't buy into the stock market and Ma & Pa are pulling out of stock mutual funds and the retail investor has been absent, who the hell bought into this market to make it go so high?

 

Oh wait, I see that name Blankfein mentioned in the article. Could it be that the Primary Dealers are levering the sh$t out of the stock market using the funds of QE generosity?

Man, its like 2008 never happened.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 18:50 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Volume has been in a steady decline since 2011 as shown on the SP500 weekly.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-weekly-climbs-almost-5-simply-ast...

 

Every last tactic is being used to pull buyers in before the turn down - including blatant misrepresentations (lying) of economic data.

Sun, 01/06/2013 - 00:52 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

"Well of course Mr. Blankfein was optimistic. He knows he has the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve in his back pocket and they will do whatever he says with one phone call. Furthermore, if things go wrong you just get a bailout"

Summed nicely

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!