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Guest Post: Heads Or Tails - The 2013 Coin Toss

Tyler Durden's picture


Via Lance Roberts of Street Talk Live blog,

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Fri, 01/04/2013 - 14:38 | 3122997 RopeADope
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Funny you should mention the loss of time considering the Status Quo is intent on stealing it from the rest of the world to pay for their misdeeds.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 14:40 | 3123005 Orly
Orly's picture

Love me some Lance!


Fri, 01/04/2013 - 14:41 | 3123009 Dr. Engali
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My ammo has more than doubled in price in the past few months. There's a bull market for you.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 14:45 | 3123028 kliguy38
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DO NOT BUY PHYSICAL GOLD OR SILVER.............let me instead.......YOU can buy it later when I sell it at 10K

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 14:50 | 3123052 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Don't have to point out the bear case...sentiment or "human" wise I think bearishness is in fact "normal." Bear's point out the obvious while Bulls are left "driving Ms Daisy" as they ponder the wonder of it all. These are not good times for "the folks" and so I think the well spring of hope comes from the fact that we are all already down already. So at best the bull can do "hope realized" whereas the bear having seen the futility of trying to begin with can exclaim "see I told you so." Hence to me the importance of "being a writer" and trying to imagine all the other points of view other than your own. I mean I really don't care what Chris Christie has to say. I want him and the others to crawl out of the cave for five seconds and show some UNDERSTANDING for a moment that "out Government is broke right now" and so doing this stuff "ain't easy." it would come as a surprise would it not? But enough of yet another rant from "formerly private all of us" right?

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 14:52 | 3123061 scatterbrains
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and there's this sorta freakishnish..  what to make of these SPX TNX rendezvous?



Fri, 01/04/2013 - 14:54 | 3123063 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You want some certainty? Here is some certainty...1) Their agenda doesn't align with ours and the will do what is in their best interest. 2) The "market" will return what the Bernank wants it to. 3) When they are ready they will pull the plug on the whole system. If you don't have physical assets when that happens you are screwed.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 14:56 | 3123076 tickhound
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Bull Point #4:  People are dumb, and trending dumber.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 15:00 | 3123099 Catullus
Catullus's picture

I know the sentiment gets fairly negative around here, but the bull case still seems to win. That's obviously because of the expanding global balance sheet, but until something rattles it, long equities doesn't seem that bad. You're not gaining anything broadly in terms of gold, but you're not losing much either. At some point those of you buying SPY puts are going to hit that hardway bet, but goddamn.

I'd rather sell covered calls on the way up than get burned on those long puts.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 18:32 | 3124057 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

The general thought here isn't bullish or bearish; if there is one, is that there is no real hedge.  Apart from the more general considerations of what that means (etc., we all die eventually, humanity will eventually be extinct, the universe will eventually suffer entropy death), what it means in the more near term is that all investments are eventually 100% shit, so the trick for those of us taking the long view is to limit or eliminate our exposure to investments that may be in more immediate peril of death.  Given the trajectory we're on, the only thing that really makes any sense is to "cash out and get the fuck out" of debt based holdings (such as credit cards, mortgages, Federal Reserve Notes) and into durable/practical goods (hammers/saws, iron skillets, bullets, food storage, liquor) and stores of wealth (land, physical PM's).

That's basically the thesis.  It's a pretty good one.   

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 15:13 | 3123165 Joe Davola
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Sam: Whenever there is any doubt, there is no doubt. That's the first thing they teach you.
Vincent: Who taught you?
Sam: I don't remember. That's the second thing they teach you.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 15:14 | 3123171 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

The only point that matters is that the illusion continues on and until the slves wake up to that fact AND do something about it-- the rich get richer (read markets are in a bull trend).

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 15:19 | 3123209 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

"In money management long term success lies not in garnering short term returns but avoiding the pitfalls that lead to large losses of invested capital."


No, long term success lies in getting yourself the best line to the best insider information.  There is simply no other way.....

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 15:21 | 3123228 lolmao500
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Big risk of 2013 : start of a civil war over the gun issue.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 15:39 | 3123321 Lord Of Finance
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Heads or tails?


  Heads! I win!


What should I do congressman?


oh how stupid of me. Of course I'll punt.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 15:55 | 3123433 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

Since I'm not in 'the club' I won't be doing any 'investing' in US 'markets' any time soon.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 16:03 | 3123478 Clowns on Acid
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The Equity market can only advance on printed dollars and $2t Fed deficts. Given this premise, when the inflationary effects hit, it will be quickly and with a vengeance.

Things will spin out of control regardless what the cardboard cutouts on CNBC tell you.

The MSM is preaching constantly yhe "benefuits" of defict spending while even floating insane ideas regarding "the platinum coin". Is Boehner going to come out and call for Fed spending cuts in trade for debt ceiling increase?

MSM will skewer him.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 14:53 | 3125473 malek
malek's picture

Robert Rubin's babble is only a long worded excuse for him not taking the blame for the disastrous decisions he made.

While point one and two are true, number three is already half a lie (you could also decide to do nothing).|
And the last point is pure bullshit. We might need to judge the decider also on the circumstances, but a bad decision doesn't become a good one because of the environment it was made in.

The citation of such crap pulls the whole post down.

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