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No 2013 Rotation From Bonds Into AAPL

Tyler Durden's picture




 

AAPL is now in the red for 2013 having filled its January 2nd opening gap. Down around 5% from its highs of that day, AAPL is down over 2% today alone (on decent volume) on the back of further concerns (prompted by Deutsche Bank) about iPhone 5 sales. It seems the meme on rotation from bonds to stocks is just not holding up for AAPL - perhaps it is time to plunder our Social Security fund to buy AAPL?

 

$526.75 seems like next support...

 

Via Deutsche Bank: Major output adjustment risk for iPhone 5-related components following on from iPad

1Q 2013 (current quarter) production of electronic components and materials for Apple's mobile products is exposed to major adjustment risk. This is the result of sales to end-2012 having not been as strong as expected. We view 4Q 2012 production and shipments for iPhone 5 as having been slightly under 40m on a finished product basis, and around 45m on a major device basis, close to the upper limit expected one month previously. Value chain movements, however, suggest a QoQ decrease of more than 30% for 1Q 2013 to respective figures of 28-30m and 25-27m.

 

Taking LCD panels as an example, there is a strong risk of further decreases in component requirements as both panel and component makers are holding component inventories. Feb, which has two fewer working days, should see the bottom on a single-month basis, but as component enquiries for 2Q currently lack strength, there is little likelihood of a V-shaped recovery in 2Q, and neither are there moves for components seen for 5S (new product). We expect radical adjustments in 1Q 2013 for iPad (9.7") to 7-9m (-50% QoQ) for finished products, and to 4m or less (-60% QoQ) for LCD panels, of which inventories are high. The only product we expect to continue favorable is iPad Mini, for which we anticipate around 10m for finished products, and 14-15m (+60% QoQ) for panels.

 

Although we view Japanese device and component makers as having performed in line with guidance in 4Q 2012, we see a strong likelihood of major shortfalls from guidance, except for iPad Mini, in 1Q 2013, and are concerned about adverse effects on capacity utilization, sales, and profits. Despite major benefits from yen depreciation vs the euro and US dollar, we plan to pay attention to undershooting key volume-basis demand.

 

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Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:29 | 3122032 Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

FORWARD! ... what social security? pensions? who needs that? We need MOAR iPads, iPhones, iwhateverthefuck

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:56 | 3122153 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

So, when they come to collect for the utility bills you just hold up your iphone??

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:57 | 3122157 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

ZH should buy this item now listed on EBay if ZH wants to get serious about the market in 2013:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/271121572455

 

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 12:20 | 3122278 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Have seen some articles about trying to get folks out of bonds. Why would the Fed and banks want that ? 

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:28 | 3122037 fuu
fuu's picture

"perhaps it is time to plunder our Social Security fund to buy AAPL"

We still have SS money?!?

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:39 | 3122079 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

"These IOUs are just as good as money!"

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:42 | 3122095 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

$2.7T

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 12:02 | 3122181 fuu
fuu's picture

Bwahahahahahahaha!

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:31 | 3122042 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Nevermind the NASDAPPLE back to 'whatever' markets....they'll pick up a new Wall St darling stock soon enough I'm sure.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:46 | 3122071 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Probably...but maybe after they are done selling the sh*t out of this one.  Apple selling volume is accelerating. 

Remember all the way back...way back to last week...when everyone said that Apple was falling due to tax selling...and that the stawk would FLY in the new year.  Oh...that's right...no one in this market has a memory longer than about 20 hrs...and conviction with even less shelf life.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:33 | 3122046 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I thought we put SSI into a lock box. Does Gore still have the key?

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:34 | 3122057 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

"Sell, Siri....SELL!!!!"

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:37 | 3122065 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Sell Sirius XM radio? Okay...done!

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:37 | 3122070 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Well at least that'd be a win to cover after. ;)

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:36 | 3122058 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

AAPL Friday is nearly always RED because of the W options market and institutional call writing on Mon and Tues.  AAPL will probably touch $520 today for unwind of some of these W options bets made before fiscal cliff ramp.  

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:34 | 3122060 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Meme from bonds to stocks'....wait a second, wasn't the ENTIRE FED plan BASED upon supporting bonds? 

Flipped the crap out of that script I guess.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:41 | 3122086 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the bernank wants everyone to buy aapl, nflx, fb, etc., and leave the bond buying to him and his ny cronies.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:42 | 3122097 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Doesn't seem to be working out too good.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:48 | 3122123 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

i would love to find out that jpm bought all those 10y t-bonds below 1.5% last year and that they are reducing exposure to the long end on the open market.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:53 | 3122142 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well, SOMEONE sure did!

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:56 | 3122149 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

my guess mostly eurotards

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:35 | 3122062 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

In other news...

http://www.businessinsider.com/john-cornyn-obama-government-shutdown-deb...

REPUBLICAN SENATOR: We Might Need To Shut Down The Government To Get 'Fiscal Sanity'

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) argued in a Houston Chronicle op-ed this morning that a partial government shutdown might be necessary to "restore fiscal sanity," slamming President Barack Obama for using fiscal deadlines as political brinkmanship.

[Obama] has already signaled an unwillingness to negotiate over the debt ceiling. This is unacceptable. The president should immediately put forward a plan that addresses these deadlines, and he should launch serious, transparent budget negotiations.

The biggest fiscal problem in Washington is excessive spending, not insufficient taxation. Tax cuts didn't cause this problem, so tax increases won't solve it. If we don't reduce spending and reform our three biggest entitlement programs — Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security — then we will strangle economic growth, destroy jobs and reduce our standard of living. With the national debt above $16 trillion, and with more than $100 trillion in unfunded liabilities hanging over us, our toughest fiscal decisions cannot be postponed any longer.

Cornyn concluded his op-ed by writing that a partial shutdown might be necessary "to secure the long-term fiscal well being of our country, rather than plod along the path of Greece, Italy and Spain."

Fark yeah!

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:45 | 3122104 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

AH here's 'GUBMINT SHUTDOWN' so-called 'threat' time once again! 

'O NOEZ! Da gubmint may shut down? AW LAWDY LAWDY please SAVE us!! I do whateva ya sez, just SAVE MEH!!'

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:46 | 3122116 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

BTFD.  Obama is gonna shove an Executive Order up the T-Pubs ass.  SP 1500 at least.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 12:00 | 3122138 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You miss the important things that are actually going on behind this market clown show, such as the 'Perfect Citizen' legislation, read up on that one when yer done worrying about 'political parties' and chasing pennies around on the freeway, check out my latestest morning news update N: NDAA, "Perfect Citizen", Fiscal Cliff up the butt and MORE! - YouTube 

Do you qualify as a 'Perfect Citizen'? You can buy all the dips you like but if the DHS sees something they dont like about you don't be surprised when they drone strike your house at 2 a.m.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 12:47 | 3122418 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

I'm thinking it would take two to three months before anybody would even notice it was shut down. JP Morgan is a private company and could still load those cards...the only really critical function of the government. You could even send the Border guards on the northern border home. As a Canadian I promise we would all continue to smuggle BC bud into the US like we normally do. Pretty much would not affect anything. It's legal now in Washington anyhow.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:42 | 3122099 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

does this analysis have any fucking back up, or is his thumb in the fucking air?

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:45 | 3122108 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Kick the Can put still in charge.  BTFD in the run up to the DC theatre.  KTC and CTRL-P: the next time they fail will be the first.  Facts are a bitch.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:45 | 3122111 Cursive
Cursive's picture

I'm not swapping out my unlocked 3G for anything else.  Got it in 2009.  I'm not an app freak, so running iOS 3.1.3 doesn't hurt me.  Opera Mini is the best mobile browser, especially fast with data compression (not concerned about privacy issues here).  Hell, I went prepaid 2 years ago and haven't looked back.  Don't need a data plan because of the prevalence of wifi.  Worst thing about these "smartphones" is the poor call reception because of the bad antennaes.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:46 | 3122114 Jason T
Jason T's picture

We bought an apple computer.. never again.  I hate this thing.  Next computer is a PC for sure.  As for tablet, Samsung.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:49 | 3122128 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I went iMac a few years ago and wouldn't go back to PC now if it was free.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:48 | 3122125 dirtyfiles
dirtyfiles's picture

trade my future security for some fruits are you nuts?

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 11:51 | 3122135 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

No I'm not nuts but I have gone bananas.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 12:36 | 3122355 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

I sold when Jobs left. No one there has the energy and creativity he did imo.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 12:38 | 3122371 tawse57
tawse57's picture

Don't worry - in the last 30 minutes of market today AAPL will mysteriously shoot up to a few bucks short of 600.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 12:43 | 3122398 bonzo112358
bonzo112358's picture

Once again, nothing better than reading seeking alpha'ers comments on how the stock is being manipulated by analysts. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/745911  If you have any hard core iEverything friends (and did they ever try to convince me to switch to iStuff) that are swtiching over to Samsung like mine are doing, then it is easy to understand why the stock is going lower.  5S coming soon then 6 already?  Really?  I just hope they are thumb friendly like the last one.

 

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 13:03 | 3122505 dirtyfiles
dirtyfiles's picture

yep I have galaxy s3 and and so happy.. happy ..

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 15:00 | 3123101 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

As I recommended buying JP Morgan after the London so I will stick my neck out on Apple and say "buy." I do not find this particular bear case compelling. Facebook doing well is a competitive threat so having brought that up before for the bears to (not) use I bring it up again. Not that anyone was saying "buy Facebook" either. Bottom line "the more you hate it the more you should buy it."

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 17:08 | 3123777 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Hey DB, this agression will not stand man.  Harpooning our beloved AAPl?  Watch out for the low-flying drone.....output adjustment risk that.

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