Vol Dumped; Stocks Pumped; Treasuries... Jumped?

Tyler Durden's picture

S&P 500 futures lurched in a vol-driven mania above their implicit QE3 highs (stop-run) and yay verily there was much rejoicing as cash S&P 500 reached closing levels not seen since December 2007. The only trouble with all this jubilation - Treasuries rallied all day (so no 'Great Rotation'), high-yield credit was having none of it, and AAPL positively hated it (though financials had their best week since the stress tests in March). Average trade size surged as did volume into these highs and as we noted before, the VIX term-structure is now at its steepest in 5 months - as hedgers shift their positions out past the debt-ceiling deadline (and implicitly crush short-term vol spurring the rally further). But, into the close, S&P 500 futures were decidedly skittish as it appeared we ran out of greater fools for a few seconds at the close (via @nanexllc $1.1B worth of $SPY and 25,000 eMinis in last few seconds). Equities pulled away from the rest of risk-assets in the last 30-minute ramp closing the week right at the QE3-day highs, with the USD +1% on the week.

Seems like Volatility and Stocks synced but Rates and credit ain't buying it...

 

leaving ES at QE3 highs (but plenty of size and blocks up here again)...

 

With Dow Transports up 6% on the week and the Russell +5.6%...

 

Even as risk-assets in general did not play along...

 

and Credit was not playing along at all!!!

 

Financials look a little ahead of their credit cousins once again here...after the biggest week since Stress Tests...

 

and AAPL was just hit at every VWAP retrace - ending the day down almost 3%

 

The USD ended the week 1% higher (with JPY down 2.58%!!)...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: US Financial stocks are now well ahead of their credit-inspired moves (just as they were during the stress test idiocy)...

Citi...

 

JPM...

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: The last time the S&P 500 futures were this net long was in Q4 2008 - and this is the pattern of the S&P 500 and net long/short that played out...