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Why December's Front-Loaded Gain Will Be January's Pain: Biderman Explains

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Wondering where the somewhat out-of-character economic improvements of Q4 2012 data came from - given Sandy and the fiscal cliff uncertainty? Wonder no longer. Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs, has done the data-mining and explains, quite succinctly in this clarifying clip, just what happened in Q4 2012. To wit, after-tax income saw a somewhat impressive (but "don't get too excited" he adds) post-election spike as individuals (and small businesses) front-ran expectations of tax-rises in 2013 by pulling forward income and bonuses etc. into 2012. Q4 income rose by over 6% YoY, which , he believes means Q1 2013 income will be correspondingly lower. Following an epic rant/exposition of the higher taxes US citizens will be paying, Biderman batters GDP (and the government's infinite idiocy) instead focusing on the real recession of lower after-tax take-home-pay and expects Q1 to see the US plunge with the "US economy starting out the new year on its butt!" Then, as a bonus, he destroys the nonsense myth that the US housing recovery is leading us forward.

 

From around 3:50 Biderman explains the recent improvements and what that means for 2013 going forward...

followed by (at around 5:00) his discussion of why the housing recovery is 'not'...

 

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Fri, 01/04/2013 - 17:57 | 3123961 Banksters
Banksters's picture

 

ECB wins case to conceal Greek debt secrets Secret documents revealing the extent of the European Central Bank’s knowledge of Greece’s concealed debt issues prior to its €240bn (£195bn) tax-payer funded rescue have been withheld in a "disturbing" EU court ruling.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9713651/ECB-wins-case...

 

 

Economic warfare, so easy a child could do it

 

DEBT REPUDIATION, YES WE CAN! 

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 18:02 | 3123989 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

If Bider-Black is right, then short SHW.  Even Robo was talking about this trade today on Wall Street Bears.  

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 18:23 | 3124040 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Bederman looks like shit.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 11:46 | 3125143 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Biderfag.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 18:31 | 3124054 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Don't short anything.

Don't be long anything.

Stop trading.  It's not a market.  

Find a way to own farmland in a venue where there might actually be enforcement of property rights, before it's too late.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 19:36 | 3124156 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

when on said farm go long your wife and short the taxman.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:09 | 3124540 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

And make sure you have enough cash and PMs to pay the property taxes...

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 00:53 | 3124683 SanOvaBeach
SanOvaBeach's picture

And save-up canned goods, shotgun shells, and learn how to take-out your own appendix!  Do u sleep in your bed or underneath it?

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 19:26 | 3124129 jcaz
jcaz's picture

That's an easy one-  30 times earnings,  wait til their report at the end of the month and find out they're explaining slowing revenue........

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 19:05 | 3124096 Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

Well you must be fucking retarded to bring a case before the European "Court" of Justice, as there are no actual judges there :). They are bureaucrats (read tools) of the European Council and/or Commission. Some the judges are:
Endre Juhász of Hungary, whom gratuated from the famous ! Szeged Law School at an unknown date joing the ranks of the communist aparatus afterwards

Eleanor Sharpston, which is an economist

Alexander Arabadjiev - google his picture :)

The list goes on.

This is not a court, its a joke, a tool of the Commission and Council.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:13 | 3124550 ball-and-chain
ball-and-chain's picture

I called my poor old mother.

I asked if there was any hope.

She hit me with her favorite Neil Diamond album.

http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2013/01/yesterday-dragon-lady-served-egg-rolls.html

 

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 06:18 | 3124878 Tom_333
Tom_333's picture

Biderman is good to listen to.Amusing,thoughtful and well versed in the ongoings of that  crossroad of economy and politics that increasingly is contemporary reality.He is also wrong.Dead wrong.He like so many other contributors to ZH take the absurdity at face-value and assume that this will implode by it´s own sheer weight.I may very well but Biderman and associates believe this will happen ...like this year or at the latest 2014.They are wrong.Dead wrong. What we now can observe is the ongoings of socialism.Distilled concentrated ultra evil socialism.It´s well cloaked and masked but that is what it is.There is no historical precedent that a socialistic corporativistic system just keels over and suddenly dies after 4- 8 years.On the contrary it has taken the lenght of average life span of a citizen before it just slowly withers away.And what´s left is not pretty.

Boris Jeltsin once stated correctly that a great misfortune was that radical socialism also known as communism was able to root itself in a vast country.Had it taken over - let´s say Luxembourg it would have lasted 10 - 20 years , but not so with Russia. There were so many resources to abuse in that gigantic country Russsia that spans 11 time zones.

I think the best would be that Americans and in particular the ZH´s came to realise that you are in for the long haul.The only solution is political and the imperative is to just quickly abolish all these crazy ideas out of D.C.

There is so much people and so many resources to suck dry before this ends by itself.The weight of historical evidence shows that opinion has always underestimated the strength in manipulation,debt,forced work or outright confiscation and eventually armed conflicts and other government GDP multipliers.

This can will and can be kicked down the road for a long,long time.

That is exactly why we see the push for icreasing integration within EU,the North American Trade Union,increased cooperation between EU and Russia.... and so on

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 17:55 | 3123966 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Looks like a cave in job to me.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 18:03 | 3123990 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

LOL  Bye Bye Biderman's back? Listen to this guy and say Bye Bye to your money!!! LOL

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 18:06 | 3124001 Taffy Lewis
Taffy Lewis's picture

I miss Uncle Charlie.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 18:38 | 3124077 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Between him and uncle larry k, it's the RR to hell compliments of your law enforcement.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 18:04 | 3123991 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

To wit, after-tax income saw a somewhat impressive (but "don't get too excited" he adds) post-election spike as individuals (and small businesses) front-ran expectations of tax-rises in 2013 by pulling forward income and bonuses etc. into 2012...

That was utterly predictable. Those extra withdrawals and special dividends will weigh on stocks eventually if reality ever has its way.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 18:07 | 3124003 fuu
fuu's picture

Biderman? Seriously?

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 18:14 | 3124018 Rainman
Rainman's picture

All i know is Mrs Rainman made a new year pledge to dump her shoe shopping addiction for a year. Look out below !

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 18:23 | 3124026 arkel
arkel's picture

ZH: Why are you posting clips of this clown Biderman? Look how stupid he was in 2006 vs Peter Schiff:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIFGfgKHrwU

 

 

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:01 | 3124528 Freddie
Freddie's picture

I like the video to view the bay area. Sausalito, Nor Cal and California is general is a beautiful place destroyed by horrible libtard people and idiots plus gangs including unions.  Sausalito is breathtaking but it is filled with trust fund arseholes and sillycons valley money and other ill gotten loot.

The geography in CA is beautful thanks to God, Gaia, big Bang or whatever. 

The people are shit and they have destroyed the state.  Most are east coast transplant scum.   The Dems control everything and the place will be destroyed by them and Fukashima.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 01:13 | 3124706 SanOvaBeach
SanOvaBeach's picture

When u get up in the morning, do you kiss the mirror you staring into? Face it, Freddie-boy, your a stupid redneck w/ very little education that hates people of color.  Get rid of the libertards and dem's and everything I'll be peachy, right!  Why am I even wasting my time typing this?  Nothing good on TV!

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 01:28 | 3124715 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Who mentioned people of color? Stop projecting your bigotry.  CA is known bankrupt shithole now - it is a fact.  Deal with it.   People who make the mistake of even crossing the border into CA usually end up being taxed for something.  Most of the union scum who did this are white so that blows your theory.  A few of the biggest AH's I know are white Kalifornians.  The nicest one is a (mexican) American and he is not a libturd.

Get back to TV doofus.  

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 01:29 | 3124717 SanOvaBeach
SanOvaBeach's picture

U have, moron!  In past posts!  When r yea running for office?  Fuck man, u got it all figured out!  Your obviously a legend in your own mind!  Got my vote!

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 01:33 | 3124719 Freddie
Freddie's picture

LOL! Nice rant. Hopefully you live in CA so you can be taxed to death and get dusted by Fukashima.  If you live in CA, please stay. 

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 02:07 | 3124737 SanOvaBeach
SanOvaBeach's picture

Plse stay where u r!  Most of the fruits and nuts in California r your friends.  You see, jerk-off, most of the screw-ups in Cali are from other parts of the country.  They really missed-up (where ever there from) and come here to start over.  They actually, start over to screw-up again!  The only difference, is they now do it in Cali.  I can tell from your past posts of the last couple months that your a complete doe-doe with dog shit for brains.  I'm sure were gonna see you here in Cali soon.  OH, by the way, did mommie fold your underwear alright?  ps. any jerk that would post his HS picture is a real dummie.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 06:58 | 3124901 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

if he gets dusted in California , so do a lot of people .
a lot of people get taxed to shit in California.

Does that make you happy you stupid wanker?

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 01:35 | 3124720 SanOvaBeach
SanOvaBeach's picture

Does it really matter what u say when your still at home eating your mommies cookies and not paying any rent.  Blame the world and not yourself, loser!  You'll feel better....

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 04:21 | 3124818 awakening
awakening's picture

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/disinformation-how-it-works

Trolls use a wide variety of strategies, some of which are unique to the internet, here are just a few:

1. Make outrageous comments designed to distract or frustrate: An Alinsky tactic used to make people emotional, although less effective because of the impersonal nature of the Web.

3. Dominate Discussions: Trolls often interject themselves into productive Web discussions in order to throw them off course and frustrate the people involved.

4. Prewritten Responses: Many trolls are supplied with a list or database with pre-planned talking points designed as generalized and deceptive responses to honest arguments. When they post, their words feel strangely plastic and well rehearsed.

7. Straw Man Arguments: A very common technique. The troll will accuse his opposition of subscribing to a certain point of view, even if he does not, and then attacks that point of view. Or, the troll will put words in the mouth of his opposition, and then rebut those specific words.

Sometimes, these strategies are used by average people with serious personality issues. However, if you see someone using these tactics often, or using many of them at the same time, you may be dealing with a paid internet troll.

SanOvaBeach, you'd have better luck trolling on 4Chan because you are way out of class on ZH.

To borrow the words of akak; make me laugh.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 05:05 | 3124852 SanOvaBeach
SanOvaBeach's picture

Okay!  Can I have your autograph before I call you a cab?

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 10:31 | 3125061 Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

sans ovum b...h
The original version of your user name would be much more appropriate.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 21:41 | 3126251 SanOvaBeach
SanOvaBeach's picture

LLove the attention!  Have a nice day!

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 01:18 | 3124711 SanOvaBeach
SanOvaBeach's picture

after watching the video, he does look like a fucking idiot!  nice condo in Sausalito, though...................

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 08:51 | 3124985 rodocostarica
rodocostarica's picture

Thanks for the video Arkel. Watching that it is obvious Biderman just uses past data for his arguments while Shiff can predict the future.  No contest. Shiff wins easily.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 18:18 | 3124028 Sofa King
Sofa King's picture

OT:  Just ran payroll; I'm gonna have a whole lot of pissed off employees on Monday.

Thanks for saving us, cocksuckers!!

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 18:32 | 3124058 ReallySparky
ReallySparky's picture

I figure for most of my folks the SS tax increase is about equivilent to a tank of gas, movie and dinner out for the month.  The bigger earners, (middle managers), it is the cost of a short vacation. Gonna suck later this year when fuel goes back up and the check does not make ends meet.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 20:01 | 3124220 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

... and not to talk about the new iPhone...

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 18:25 | 3124042 q99x2
q99x2's picture

He avoided Citadel and Henry.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 18:33 | 3124059 Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

Biderman has been crying wolf (bear) for about years straight.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 18:35 | 3124070 FrogEFresh
FrogEFresh's picture

I had Charlie speak at a conference recently as part of an economic pannel.  He rocked the house.  You think he's crusty on these videos, he's 10X that in person.  Crowd loved/hated him!

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 20:33 | 3124281 RobD
RobD's picture

Your description reminded me of when Bob Hope did his Christmas special aboard my ship(USS Midway) back in 87. On camera he was clean as lily white snow, but when the camera was off he was as dirty as Chris Rock. Had us laughing so hard during the breaks that it just carried on through the stuff during the show.  He sure knew how to work the audience.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 19:00 | 3124094 tawse57
tawse57's picture

If you go on Hollywood real estate websites such as realestalker there are posts almost daily of well known actors and celebs selling multi-million dollar bought properties for huge losses - sometimes a few million losses on a house.

If the US housing market was recovering then surely one of the first places we would see a recovery would be the LA celeb areas. If Hollywood actors are losing BIG money on selling their houses that is the sign of a declining housing market surely?

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 22:51 | 3124516 Freddie
Freddie's picture

F Hollywood and F TV (which is done mostly in Hollywood and the same people).  The nice thing about Hollywood Real Estate is it gets pretty good ongoing exposure to Fukshima.

Why anyone would want to live there near plumes of Iodine 131 and Cesium is beyond me.  Blame Pelosi, Hillary (covering it up) and Obama in total denial.  Maybe he gets some in Hawaii.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 02:59 | 3124766 SanOvaBeach
SanOvaBeach's picture

And last but not least, fuck you!  Do you really feel big?  Pounding on your keyboard, in the bedroom you grew-up in, in your underwear (of course) wondering what mommie is gonna make yea for breakfast tommorow morning!

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 05:07 | 3124856 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Geez...San - sounds like the radiation has got to you already.....

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 21:44 | 3126260 SanOvaBeach
SanOvaBeach's picture

Not really, jack-off!  Got more than  u.................. by the way. I won, asshole..........................

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 04:30 | 3124826 SanOvaBeach
SanOvaBeach's picture

Your dumber than a rock!  It stands out like a sore thumb that you have no understanding of how the world works.  Your really that fuck'in stupid to think you could hide the fact of toxic levels of Iodine and Cesium on the West Coast of the US.  Your an idiot beyond words!

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 21:32 | 3126239 SanOvaBeach
SanOvaBeach's picture

And the -7 are all part of the moron squad.  Have a nice day!

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 19:23 | 3124124 mumbo_jumbo
mumbo_jumbo's picture

and chance of a transcript for those of us that don't have sound?

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 04:36 | 3124831 SanOvaBeach
SanOvaBeach's picture

u need 2 take some typing lessons, slick!  or perhaps some quick proof-reading before u post...................

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 19:35 | 3124154 bullmkt
bullmkt's picture

wasnt that moron Biderman(no,he cant be Jewissh) "all-in" short stocks since sp aput 1250?

 

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 21:21 | 3124362 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

I don t like bankers, catholic , jews, protestant, islamic, mormon all the same, equal opportunity thieves. I like morons even less though.

 

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 20:16 | 3124254 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

Looks like he had a good new years party

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 20:18 | 3124259 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

Or constipated

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 20:19 | 3124260 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

Still i listen

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 21:17 | 3124358 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

I love the "infinite idiocy", you can feel the rage...lulz

 

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 21:50 | 3124417 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Biderman isn't infallible, but I appreciate his input. Nice to see him get pissed, too. Santilli isn't always right but it's nice to hear him bitch too.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 23:11 | 3124546 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Here's your soundtrack Bider-butt: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCUT932WytY

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 00:11 | 3124636 LeisureSmith
LeisureSmith's picture

Is it weird that i just got a craving for spiderman towels? Anyways here is a tune with the same name as one of the most consistently douchy posters in this space. Damn fine tune....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GDIkb5CDUY

Forgive me, i'm drunk.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 01:50 | 3124731 luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

Hi, Biderman...Where you been?

 

'Bout time you made it back to these parts!...

 

Always, good to hear from you!

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 03:02 | 3124768 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

I was thinking the same thing just a few days ago...

But yeah, ditto, good to hear from you Biderman.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 08:44 | 3124982 dunce
dunce's picture

I think i know why the IRS does not report capital gains. They only care about tax revenue, not economic analysis, and each individual sets off his losses against his gains on his schedule D. In my case, as a result of realizing losses since 2009, my net gains were zero or losses though each year sales resulted in about 10k$ in gains. I sold just enough losing positions cancel the gains. Thanks to the market and portfolio destruction that took place in 2008 i expect to be able to continue this manuever for the rest of my miserable life. I was foolish enough to own lots of bank stocks in 2007.

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 09:35 | 3125009 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

I'd make one more point. Corporate profits for the fourth quarter are higher than they otherwise would have been because it has been clear what has been coming in terms of higher taxes.  Only fools would not have been taking proactive steps to curtail spending in advance so that they could maintain profit growth.

 

We have seen those changes reflected in the amounts companies have been willing to spend on invenotry building and reinvestment into expansion plans.

And despite these steps, the rate of year over year profit growth reported each quarter has sunk to i's lowest levels so far.

Once again, we are in the process of right sizing the economy based upon the public burden it is being forced to carry.

It's not going to be pretty.  

I'd say that the Feds, didn't anticipate this, but then they were adamant about the extension of unemployment benefits.  So I think they know.

 

Sat, 01/05/2013 - 21:37 | 3126244 SanOvaBeach
SanOvaBeach's picture

Many ZH'ers have their ass'es so high up their ass, they are losing oxygen to their brains!  But it must be fun proving it to rational folks!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!