Back To The Future

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Via Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box,

“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.”
 
               -Popular Mechanics, 1949
 
Forecasting the future with any accuracy is a difficult affair. It is a deductive process first utilizing the facts at hand and then assessing where they will take us and finally, in our business, concluding how the accumulated rationale will affect the various marketplaces. The process is also dynamic, not stagnant, so that new facts, both economic and political, re-engage the outcomes for the future in a myriad of gyrating motions. Being right about the facts, often obscured by various governments, and then correct in your deductions is never enough as macro impacts such as Draghi’s “Save the World” plan can often change the face of market outcomes in a New York minute. This is why so few people can predict the future of the markets with much accuracy. First they fall down in their assessment of the news and accept what is thrown at them as fact. Then they use a flawed deductive process where they try to fit the fact inside their opinions; instead of the other way around. Finally even if you get both the facts and the deductions correctly the markets’ outcomes may be shifted by outside and often unexpected events; not to mention black swans. In other words you must roll with the procession while both the media and sophisticated investors are judging you and holding you accountable by the machinations of your last fight.
 
“Guitar bands have no future.”
 
                    -EMI records, 1962
 
Over the last ten and one-half years I have stuck my neck out in my commentary. Plenty of opportunities for the guillotine have passed. I point out that I am still here and that some 5,000 large financial institutions in forty-eight countries get “Out of the Box” each day. I have no agendas, hidden or otherwise, and I give you my very best every morning in the hope of helping you protect your assets and so that you can make some money when possible. Long ago I learned that we play to win and not to be right and that being right is only one part of the equation. Each and every moment the past shifts to today, today morphs into tomorrow and the future will determine where we are going whether you wish to acknowledge that reality or not. It is not just a game but the “Great Game” and the winners of yesterday are often the losers of tomorrow and nothing, not one thing, replaces experience. For thirty-eight years of my life I have been engaged and I intend to keep going so keep bringing it all on and I will continue to keep endeavoring to figure it all out.
 
“If you want to make a Wizard laugh; tell him your future plans.”
 
                              -The Wizard
 
Predictions
 
The central banks of the world have accumulated balance sheets of about 15 trillion dollars. There will be consequences of this including inflation, valuation of currencies and ultimately defaults as motivated by political and economic decisions. In the spring keep your eye on Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy as nationalism returns to protect the various nations. The Europeans are not out of the woods and all of their assurances will be for naught. The ECB may well promise to save the Continent but events in April through June will put the promise to the test. The “have nots” can outvote the “haves” but the “haves” control the money and push-back and refusal are on the horizon.
 
“The future is like a toy at Christmas time; some assembly is always required.”
 
                              -The Sages
 
In the United States rancor will resurface. Like in Europe, the “have-nots” control the votes but the push-backs will come and the intensity of them may startle many as the House refuses to accede to the demands and cries for the sharing of wealth. Polarization will continue and a shift in the population base will bring intense rivalry from one State to the next. I expect fourth quarter numbers to disappoint and the House may ultimately curtail the Fed so that the largesse of the past may be ended and quite severe consequences occur. In the meantime demand outstrips supply and compression will continue and risk assets will continue to appreciate right up until the time when the music stops in Congress. Be ready to turn on a dime and the reaction must be swift but not yet and enjoy the ride as long as it goes on.
 
The nightmares of the Past and the chaos of the Present are nothing compared to the wild dreams of the Future. Embrace the Future because if you do not it will surely embrace you!

0
Your rating: None
 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:20 | 3129249 tooriskytoinvest
tooriskytoinvest's picture

Economic Trouble Is Coming In 2013? Government Is About To Cut Spending Dramatically, Student Loan Default Rates Are Soaring, Interest Rates And Taxes Going Up, And 65 Percent Of Americans Believe That 2013 Will Be A Year Of Economic Difficulty

http://investmentwatchblog.com/economic-trouble-is-coming-in-2013-government-is-about-to-cut-spending-dramatically-student-loan-default-rates-are-soaring-interest-rates-and-taxes-going-up-and-65-percent-of-americans-believe-tha/

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:22 | 3129253 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I hope Euroland figures everything out......cause then the US will know what to do.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:28 | 3129257 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Physical Precious Metals will not be available at this price, they will not be on the shelf for much longer. You have been warned.  http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/1/6_Sprott_-_Demand_For_Gold_Is_Now_Overwhelming_Central_Banks.html

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:33 | 3129277 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Try to buy a .223/5.56 round right now....damn near impossible.

 

I'm not even going into the hardware required to shoot them.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:37 | 3129293 chubbar
chubbar's picture

No Kidding, I can't locate any ammo. Thankfully I laid in a couple thousand rounds last year. I did find several 30 rd mags that I overpaid for, better safe than sorry. BTW, here is what BoA is doing to at least one arms manufacturer. I honestly don't know why anyone would do business with those assholes? They just make shit up as they go along and do whatever the fuck they feel like doing with other peoples money.

"(Ironic Surrealism) On December 29, the owner of American Spirit Arms; Joe Sirochman relayed this chilling news via Facebook:

My name is Joe Sirochman owner of American Spirit Arms and I wanted to share my recent experience with Bank of America . Which we have been doing business with for over 10 years .

Everyone is familiar with the latest increase in guns sales , dealers selling out of inventory , manufacturers back logged for months, large revenue all generated in the last two weeks.

American Spirit Arms is no exception to the overwhelming demand . What we have experienced is that our web site orders have jumped 500 % causing our web site E commerce processing larger Deposits to Bank Of America. Well, this through up a huge red Flag with Bank of America .

So they decided to hold the deposits for further review, meaning that the orders and payments that were coming in through the web , being paid by the customer and that were shipped out by American Spirit Arms, the bank was keeping . As you could imagine this made me furious.

After countless hours on the phone with Bank Of America I finally got a manager in the right department that told me the reason that the deposits were on hold for Further Review. Her exact words were “WE BELIEVE YOU SHOULD NOT BE SELLING GUNS AND PARTS ON THE INTERNET”

I flipped the F**k Out and told them that they have no right to make up their own new rules and regulations, that we are a firearms Manufacturer with all the proper licensing FFL (Federal Firearm license ), SOT and that we follow all Federal and All States’ rules and regulations on shipping Firearms and parts and that we are also Audited by ATF and Homeland Security on a regular basis.

She said that she understands that but that the deposits will be released After they have a chance to review and clear them …I told her that This was unacceptable and the those deposits (that were a week old by now ) needed to be released ASAP, that we are a small business and rely on the revenue to run and stay operational.

After that being said another Manager got involved and released one of the deposits (to help out )… So far to date after Two weeks of sales only 1/3 of collected internet sales have been released. I am still pissed and looking for another Bank and options. I just thought the public should know. I will keep everyone posted on new developments. Joseph P Sirochman American Spirit Arms"

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:10 | 3129392 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Why does anybody use the big banks to begin with?

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:19 | 3129418 Janice
Janice's picture

We had the same thing happen. We're a construction type industry who deposits substantial checks. The bank was holding the funds 7 - 10 days to make sure the check cleared, even though they could make a phone call and verify/hold the funds. I spoke to the bank manager of the location that I frequent and poof, requirement gone. The difference is that we use a small local bank, and those people see me every day. I'm not sure if you are locked in to a big bank because of the Internet sales, but I'd suggest that you bank locally...if you can.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:24 | 3129432 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

SoP for cc processors of all sizes.

Increases in your credit limit have to be underwritten.In effect they are loaning the

merchant money as well with a risk of chargebacks being unpaid.

Looks like one bloody minded individual is fouling up the red tape out of personal

(wrong)convictions.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:55 | 3129532 digitalhermit
digitalhermit's picture

And that, my friend, is why you should look into accepting Bitcoin. No middle man or Bank can ever "hold up" your payments then. Actually, looks like someone already beat you to it ... small store tho. http://bitcoin-ammo.com/Ammo-Pistol

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:53 | 3129331 duo
duo's picture

I went into a local sporting goods chain on the Sunday before the election to buy a few more boxes "just in case".  I overheard two guys behind the counter talking about the "Wednesday price increase".  They were planning to jack up ammo and gun prices after the election NO MATTER WHO WON.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:35 | 3129284 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

And I guess you figured out that is not logical?

 

No, I am not saying demand can't overwhelm banks. The argument I am making is that if demand where that high as to overwhelm major financial institutions, then you'd have gold sky rocketing to $3000 oz.

Yet the gold market is still below $1700 oz.  Maybe the market is telling you and others something, but so very few are listening. I have some PMs. I am not against it. I certainly am glad I am not emotionally attached to it.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:58 | 3129320 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

OK preacher man.....I'll give you 30 minutes.....but that's it.

 

I'll have to see your BIS credentials first however.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 19:50 | 3131134 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

sessi pit your so sassy. $3000 an ounce is not my idea of sky rocketing. 8-10k and now your talking. Do not fight the fed is all we hear; not for the reasons that they are the masters of the universe and highly skilled money men but rather their criminal cartel of operators public and private. The chinese will be laughing along with the other buyers and this is going to dig deeper into what is already a dark hole in their fictional balance sheets. Please watch CFLEM BC clucking like chickens at every chance to tell the folks we are muppets. The desparation is very very clear!! stack stack and witness the crack.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:25 | 3129258 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

'...the House may ultimately curtail the Fed'?

 

I'm assuming he means the Federal Gvt.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:25 | 3129261 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This guy Grant annoys the balls off me.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:30 | 3129272 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I wish he had a point....other than stating the obvious.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:40 | 3129301 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Stating the obvious is one thing, framing it as if he has uncovered some secret and packaged as if he's hoping for a good grade in a creative writing course is what annoys me.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:45 | 3129315 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Reminds me of the Atari marketing " shit in a box" paradigm in the 80s.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:41 | 3129302 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

" some 5,000 large financial institutions in forty-eight countries get “Out of the Box” each day."
They call that spam.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:29 | 3129268 Chief_Illiniwek
Chief_Illiniwek's picture

"We have hit bottom and are on the upswing."

... Sec. of Labor James Davis,  September 1930

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:43 | 3129307 adr
adr's picture

Well the stock market did soar after the 29 crash.

Remember, Obama saved us from going into a second Great Depression.

Other than the facts that a higher percentage of the population is on food stamps than people in food lines during the GD, real unemployment is higher, incomes and purchasing power is lower, Government debt makes the GD years look like a beacon of fiscal sanity. Other than that...

BUT THE MEDIA TOLD ME OBAMA SAVED US, THEY WOULDN'T LIE.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:58 | 3129348 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I thought it was Bernanke who saved us.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:46 | 3129316 pods
pods's picture

"We have hit the bottom and are continuing to dig."

USA, 2013

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:56 | 3129340 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

so mom was wrong, you can dig a hole to China

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 14:02 | 3129964 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

I believe we've already done it...

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:55 | 3129335 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

If it wasn't for Saint Roosevelt, the recovery would have continued...

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:33 | 3129269 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

 "the “have-nots” control the votes but the"..........HAVES control the Diebold machines [not to mention the 'candidates' the Diebold machines elect ~ just ask Ron Paul]...

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:56 | 3129343 laboratorymike
laboratorymike's picture

I dunno. I got to be a vote counter in the 2012 primaries. My precinct went for Ron Paul by two votes, but I was shocked at the number of Romney votes since he did not do any campaigning AT ALL. We also had RP people as vote counters at ~99% of precincts so we independently verified the vote in our state.

On the one hand it was shocking, but on the other hand, I'm not shocked because I went door to door to all the known Repubs, and most really are drinking the Kool Aid. So many people were saying "But but! Mitt Romney is ELECTABLE!!! Only he can BEAT OBAMA!!!" Yeah, we saw just how much he could beat Obama. As if it would even matter.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:00 | 3129357 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Well, he does have nice hair and his profile is smashing.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:39 | 3129484 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Well, he does have nice hair and his profile is smashing."

And his talking points were nowhere as controversial.  It's good to soothe the normalcy bias of the masses.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:34 | 3129271 Manthong
Manthong's picture

"Like in Europe, the “have-nots” control the votes"

..Obama et al. contol the counters.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:46 | 3129317 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

I think that "voter fraud" is a red herring. Divide and conquer...the illusion that our vote matters negates any significance to how the votes are counted. It's all a distraction.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:31 | 3129274 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Guitar bands have no future.

-Mercury, 2013

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:00 | 3129354 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Music has no future. The musicians have no social commentary beyond a twitter feed that heralds their dumb musings. Bands and musicians used to say things. They had meaning. This new crop of douchebags is self-absorbed and are tossed aside, rightfully so, after two songs "make it". Those songs are downloaded as the rest of the "album" is total shite. They fade into obscurity and then go do some VH1 shows and a failed reality show. Rinse and repeat. I listen to nothing that has come after 2001 and like the 70s the most. 

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:31 | 3129455 acetinker
acetinker's picture

I beg to differ, Mr. Rebel:http://youtu.be/cgpA1UCUQ-w

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:52 | 3129531 trav777
trav777's picture

music isn't about music anymore, it's about multimedia. You can't be a success these days unless you are more like a fashion model than a singer. They just autotune it. The lyrics are written in mills.

The Beatles couldn't get signed today, nevermind great bands that were chock full of ugly dudes. 

Even bands and acts that can actually sing and write a bit have to have a look.  It's the same with actors; they all (women and men) have jawlines you can carve a ham on but can't actually act for squat.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:32 | 3129279 Element
Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:40 | 3129299 Mercury
Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:48 | 3129310 Element
Element's picture

 

 

Ah Mr Mercury, I have several versions of Jimi doing that. ;-)

 

Get a load of this though, love this guy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=xv_6QtbIqqs

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:50 | 3129524 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Nice.

I believe that's the best 'Red House' on video though.

You'd probably like this guy whose one album was briefly on CD:
http://www.amazon.com/New-Train-Paul-Pena/dp/B00004Y6R1

...a blind Cape Verdean from Cape Cod who wrote 'Jet Airliner' of Steve Miller fame.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 12:25 | 3129632 Element
Element's picture

Yeah, the red house vid was a good one alright.

I'll have a listen to that guy as well, loved Jet Airliner when it came out.

Steve Hillage has a bunch of music, space-rock type stuff, awesome music, amazing synth stuff as well through all of it.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 20:43 | 3131266 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Agreed todays muksic sucks. maybe due to in my opinion that everything has been said and well we are all very content with life. hard to see a bottle of whiskey bouncing off the head of the drummer of any boy band!

That said gotta listen to " Ben B and the Greenbacks ". getting a whole lotta play on the MSM.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 12:36 | 3129655 What you talkin...
What you talkin about Willis's picture

Paco de Lucia- Cueva del Gato 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8eKg5iv7jo

Tomatito -  Buleiras

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rs8wMglGBtI

 

notive all the gold. the Roma have been long time gold bugs.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:35 | 3129287 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Define "haves".    There are paper promises and then there are physical assets of real value.  What do you and those you associate with consider "wealth"?

Hedge accordingly.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:04 | 3129371 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

America is built on unquenchable desire. Everyone's a "Have Not."

Personally, I do not want what I haven't got.

I guess I'm a "Have."

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:41 | 3129488 youngman
youngman's picture

I would rather call it the Producers...vs the Takers..

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:55 | 3129540 trav777
trav777's picture

wtf does it matter anyhow?  This insane notion that the reason people are poor is because they somehow didn't get "a break" needs to die.

The poor are poor because they don't save money.  They spend it...all of it and then some.  Lottery winners and affleets are the classic examples of a sudden windfall followed by inevitable re-poverty.

There's simply a difference in CORE BEHAVIORS between the two groups and pretending that if you bestow one with the bank account of the other and that they are then interchangeable...it's suicidal.

This, however, is marxist "nurture" doctrine.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:38 | 3129296 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

It's hard to predict the future when people with crazy policies and agendas are in charge.

Just prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

We need to stop defining ourselves and our lives so heavily in economic and financial terms.

Be patient. The mess we are in has been developing for many years. For the mess to clear we need a lot of time and a change in attitudes across the board.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:03 | 3129366 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

...and we need fairy dust

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:39 | 3129297 VFR
VFR's picture

US 'seriously' considering $1 trillion coin to pay off debt

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9784898/US-seriously-...

 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!