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The Funniest Number Of The Day

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Yes, it comes straight from the dumb money portal and does not adjust for such things as "one time, non-recurring charges" and other things which have made AMZN's profit margin the biggest mathematical conundrum since the Riemann hypothesis, but it still is about the funniest thing we have spotted on today's so far painfully boring trading day.

Highlighted in red:

As for the fundamentals... ah who cares. Just buy on the most recent Morgan Stanley short squeeze upgrade

 

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Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:59 | 3129349 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Stay away from this stock.  Just sayin'.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:12 | 3129398 Thomas
Thomas's picture

They'd be better off letting earnings go negative and get an "n/a" in the box.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 13:49 | 3129919 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

No profits, but we'll make it up on volume and growth.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 14:00 | 3129952 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

ah, the bigger truck solution,...

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 18:36 | 3130939 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

That's what FB'ers are hoping for !

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:14 | 3129403 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I would advise the junior investors on this site to allow their portfolios to be managed by an experienced fund manager or professional stock broker. The markets ar risky, and unless you're an experienced pro like myself, it's not going to be easy to beat the smart money at their own game. Leave the trading to experienced traders at top tier investment banks, and delegate your investments to top investment professionals at pension funds and well diversified equity funds. Also, when selecting a fund, make sure the fund managers use "Modern Potfolio Theory" to manage risk, in order to be sure that the fund is not too risky.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:20 | 3129420 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

tip: you should inflate your monikor to Trillion for it to carry the same meaning as originally intended.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:21 | 3129421 CPL
CPL's picture

LOL.  coffee came out my nose.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:21 | 3129422 paddy0761
paddy0761's picture

That's gold...pure gold MDB. You've still got it.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 14:10 | 3129991 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

yeah, its gold...the sad part is this is the thinking that is going to lead to the confiscation of  pensions, iras etc., there is a woman who explains that knows  a dentist in bum fuck egypt could never know how to invest like a pro, pro being not the 88% that underperformed markets....these pros work for the government were they really know what they are doing.....so it is probably the most accurate post this bridge toll has ever posted...

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:24 | 3129431 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Modern portfolio theory? Do they still use that barbaric relic in the new centrally planned everybody wins economy?

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:38 | 3129477 UGrev
UGrev's picture

I'm new to the Market lingo.. I though Modern portfolio theory was "Buy PM's "?  /end sarc. 

Seriously, I would never get into the market. Not only because I would get my ass handed to me, but because I KNOW that even if had a handle on it, the odds are against me with the HFT's fucking it up for the rest of us. You lot are more brave than I. That is an absolute fucking certainty. I honestly don't know how you guys keep it together with all the shit that goes on. I'm actually surprised that you all haven't banded together to start ripping HFT computers from their internet connections and EMP'ing the shit out them. You've shown a restraint that I cannot comprehend. 

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:52 | 3129526 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I've been around a long time and navigated a lot of markets. The biggest shock for has been the eye opening experience that everything I thought to be true is a lie. Once you get past the years of brainwashing, and dump logic and reason out the window...it makes it easier to deal with the new reality.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 13:54 | 3129936 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

"..it makes it easier to deal with the new reality."

"If you can't stand in front of it and defend it with an AR-15, you don't own it" Ann Barnhardt 2011

The only equation you need to know "Stock Broker = Jon Corzine"

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 12:08 | 3129582 CPL
CPL's picture

Trick is now knowing where the HFT's 'feed'.  They are binary herd animals grazing on public information.  

So you identify their 'food sources' and poison it.  Or go with it and make money.  Investing today has more to do with server farm herd management than fundementals.

 

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 13:49 | 3129918 UGrev
UGrev's picture

Well then. Time for you guys to come up with an "Enigma machine" to make the psychology of the daily trade info highly variant and encoded. When the Algo's can't figure it out, they'll start breaking shit.. :) Now that would be epic!

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 14:16 | 3130015 CPL
CPL's picture

I just have a google alert that tells me when more than 4 articles and 200 tweets come out on a particular day on any stock under 20 bucks over 500,000 in volume and near/at/under the bottom of the 52 week range.

 

Seems to work so far.

 

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 14:18 | 3130024 UGrev
UGrev's picture

that just means that you're working under the radar. Your internal network of people needs to start speaking, for lack of a better term, "another language" to confuse or completely disrupt the algo's reading your stuff. 

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 05:18 | 3135644 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

To do that you need another quote-stuffing algo. So for that you need speed and/or influence to ensure no trades go through that would be very bad (of your own). It's cheater's poker at 50,000 hands (trades) per second.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 05:16 | 3135642 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

#1 math

#2 time-frames

the HFT's don't look beyond the micro/nano time-scale, so anything else is back to math to look for tell-tale signs of when a fish has taken a hook but you may need 3-5 days or 3-5 weeks to reel it in. In the precious metals case you'd be identifying dips to come & trying to buy on/into it rather than very high prices (stacking) before they drop.

For options on GLD using the gold chart http://flic.kr/p/dvDHf2 you'd of course want big swings to resell & sell to close... on flatter lures in calmer waters the inverse, to write those calls & puts.

Meh. What can I say.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 21:01 | 3131317 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

I thought MDB said POT so had a few bongs and threw everything on red at Casino.com!
Guess what JPM just offered me an executive post.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:32 | 3129458 Taint Boil
Taint Boil's picture

 

 

Oh dear … Million Dollar Bonus, what to do. I never down arrow anyone but in MDB case a down arrow is an up …. Just can’t make this stuff up – too funny.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 14:21 | 3130045 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

But he does make it up, and it is only funny if you have been through the mill.

On the weekend I talked to an otherwise intelligent woman who thinks she is going to get rich following hot tips from her stockbroker. Now that is funny but it won't be funny to her.

So give MDB a down (up) if you think he is serious or an up (down) if you get the joke.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:48 | 3129519 Defiant1968
Defiant1968's picture
Finally some good advice - Thanks!
Mon, 01/07/2013 - 12:09 | 3129588 beaker
beaker's picture

After 36 years with Wall Street firms, MDB's comment is one of the funniest things I've seen in a while.  However, I think this guy always says this shit to get everyone going.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 13:05 | 3129769 Blano
Blano's picture

POTfolio theory???  Like, wow dude, can I have some Doritos with that??

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 14:11 | 3129996 Eastwood
Eastwood's picture

Judging the 50/50 ratio of favorable / unfavorable responses to this statement, 50% of the ZH readers didn't catch the sarcasm of MillionDollarBonus and the other 50% are $%^&ing morons! Errr wait a minute.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 14:34 | 3130081 reTARD
reTARD's picture

That's why I always invest all my money with MDB. He's so smart. I only pick the funds he manages. ;-)

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 18:38 | 3130946 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

"Potfolio",

How appropriate !

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:18 | 3129415 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

The conundrum of AMZN valuation is that many analysts forecast steadily increasing after-tax earnings resulting partly from anticipated sharp reductions in capital expenditures.   Yet the reality is that if adequate capital expenditures are not made, a multi-faceted corporation such as Amazon is extremely unlikely to enjoy a steadily increasing cashflow and will instead almost certainly face declining profits. 

Never was P/E jettisoned as an insignifcant tool to value a company's fundamentals as much as it is with AMZN. 

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:47 | 3129439 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

I think the price is based on yoy sales growth which is supported by plowing all of the cash flow back into the business.  If the growth continues (which is the gamble) AMZN's sales could rival WMT.  Having said that, it is a speculation to think that this growth will not eventually slow and a lot of it is already priced into the stock.  But don't underestimate AMZN's ability to continue to exploit the internet retail supply chain paradigm.

http://ycharts.com/companies/AMZN/revenue_growth

 

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:51 | 3129527 Oleander
Oleander's picture

When Amazon has to start charging sales tax for all states won't sales go down? On Nov. 1 in Ma. they are going to start. Ordering fron Amazon will no longer be like sticking it to the state. Lose the free shipping and its attraction is lost. The movie selection on Prime sucks. All they will have is Kindle. Can they survive on that?

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:33 | 3129461 adr
adr's picture

In the real world selling a few billion dollars in merchandise for negative profit would not be a sound business. Somehow, today it is to be praised.

Amazon just got hit with a fine for selling Organic Bamboo sheets, that were actually Rayon. IT WAS EVEN A CRIB SHEET FOR BABIES!!!

Actually I am being serious. If people actually knew how much of what goes out the door at Amazon is black market merchandise, counterfeit goods, and mislabeled fake crap, I don't think they would really shop there.

Amazon is that seedy store in the ghetto owned by the Russians that you see panel vans show up at to unload DVD players with scratched off serial numbers. Never has there been a more overvalued corporation in history.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 21:14 | 3131362 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

adr i bet ya none of them down arrows came from any of AMZ employees or ex employees or future (s) ex employees or employees collecting foodie stamps or future ex employees turning renegade with a best seller shot down on msm

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 12:42 | 3129708 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Totally agree.  AMZN has been way overvalued for over a decade, despite never showing any real signs of improved future profitability.  With it's razor thin margins and devil may care management attitude it will crash someday, but that day is so long overdue it's impossible to approach it like a rational fundamental investment play. 

Almost talked myself into putting on a short position there!  I think I'll just keep watching for now.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:25 | 3129436 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Earnings expectations are way out of line with reality and due for a collapse with Amazon just being one example. No doubt this should be a very interesting earnings season.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:25 | 3129437 killallthefiat
killallthefiat's picture

Up 3%.

Earlier, today, it was much more affordable 3000.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:00 | 3129351 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The closing price for gold in 2013.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:00 | 3129356 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

America, FUCK YEAH!
Coming again, to save the mother fucking day yeah,
America, FUCK YEAH!
Freedom is the only way yeah,
Terrorist your game is through cause now you have to answer too,
America, FUCK YEAH!
So lick my butt, and suck on my balls,
America, FUCK YEAH!

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:17 | 3129411 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

We seem to be getting more and more newly awakened individuals and that is awesome.

Fuck is not a smart word in case you needed clarification.

Post smart.  I am more likely to read it.  Most people will be.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:22 | 3129426 fuu
fuu's picture

America, FORNICATE YEAH!
Coming again, to save the mother humping day yeah,
America, COPULATE YEAH!
Freedom is the only way yeah,
Terrorist your game is through cause now you have to answer too,
America, SHAG YEAH!
So lick my anus, and suck on my testicles,
America, DOINK YEAH!

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:47 | 3129513 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

See now that was clever.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 15:16 | 3130253 fuu
fuu's picture

Not really.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:01 | 3129359 ar01
ar01's picture

When I see stuff like this on ZH, I immediately think the Tylers are short AMZN. 

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:04 | 3129369 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I suggest you read their conflicts/disclosure policy:

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/node/13972

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:23 | 3129427 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

The whole thing is a quality read but I really like this part...they even trademarked "a good thing".

"Like David Einhorn, we think that talking about investing and investments is, in every case, a good thing™ and should be encouraged at every turn.  Even idiots should talk about investments.  It makes it much easier to identify and deal with them (and it keeps us writing about financial idiots).  As to writing about investments, we plan to do a lot of it.  So how do we plan to handle conflicts?

We don't.

You should assume that at all times we are so totally just talking our book it would shock and awe you like the unexpected, early-morning arrival of a cluster of BGM-109C Tomahawks (were you a believer in the importance of "optics" that is)."

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:27 | 3129445 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I laughed my ass off the first time I read that piece. It was my favorite read when I first explored the Hedge.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:46 | 3129508 Dick Fitz
Dick Fitz's picture

Dr Engali

That's awesome! Full disclosure...isn't.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 12:09 | 3129591 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Talking their book would make ZH "no worse" than anyone else presenting so-called market information. The reality is that you should read everything expecting bias, even on ZH, no different than watching CNBC. You're an adult, aren't you?

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 13:16 | 3129806 madridisburning
madridisburning's picture

If ZH has been talking their book all this, I would think they would bust by now. They have been wrong on everything. Cheerleading is not investing.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:07 | 3129378 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

jebus h hare xmas! genius at work. stand back for mr. big brain, give him room!

btw, they might be long gold too. lololololololololol

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:15 | 3129407 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Yeah, cuz a P/E of 3138 for a market beauty isn't even worth noting in this "market."

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:38 | 3129480 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

makes Netfix look like a steal at only 257X forward earnings... I'm gonna call my broker to get me IN THE GAME

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 12:11 | 3129594 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

U can't be a winnah if u ain't a playa!

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:31 | 3129453 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I have woven in and out of short-term tactical shorts of AMZN, always covering intraday. The stock is just too unreal for a buy-and-hold short.  You cannot count on analyst protest or even fundamentals to assert themselves in the face of AMZN.  So much left in the shadows here: will anyone ever really know the sales figures for the Kindle?   The major blow to AMZN would be the announcement of some investigation into their accounting practices.   What gov agency has the chutzpah to announce that? 

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:37 | 3129474 adr
adr's picture

No government agency will investigate Amazon because some government agency is using them to launder billions of dollars in sales of something.

You would only need to look at one page of Amazon's books to find the crispiest page of an accounting ledger in history. The stock will go to $1 in a day. The corporation is bankrupt in all meaning of the word, yet the ever increasing stock price works just like the Fed, it lets them print new operating cash to infinity.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 12:18 | 3129615 CPL
CPL's picture

The risk versus reward shorting AMZN might be worth a couple of bucks.  It's not however worth an infinite loss situation when all their buddies on the hill own a printing machine.  

 

A good investment right now is oil drums to stockpile gas to hedge retail prices and lumber because the commodites flippers final destroyed the remaining lumber mills on energy prices.  Today a 2x4 is 25% more than Friday, retailers won't know it until their quarterly though.  

I'm bullish portable saws and lumber poaching in two months on top of the scavengers dismantling the infrastructure piece by piece for the copper in wires, statues, gates, security systems and storm drains.  Invest the direction main street is going and you won't starve to death.  Follow the paper herd with the forewarning though.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 21:39 | 3131416 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Even a blind man or a brown nose hopless romantic like you can see how much more difficult it has become papering ( painting ) over the cracks in the make-up of those MSM whores.
Crammy's on crack even by his standards. very concerned for the mans health.
Best comedy moment 2012 was seeing Bobo PissAnti wearing those All Terrain shorts purportedly at the scene of the largest Gold Mine or producer in the world. The film crew that day in South Africa must have been wetting themselves! Lucky Legs.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:02 | 3129361 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

That's a comma, right? There must be some mistake.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:05 | 3129370 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

No mistake.  $266 share price laid over 8 cents of earnings = ~3200 P/E

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:07 | 3129380 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Excuse me but i must go phone my broker......Who's got two thumbs and wants some shares!?!?! ME ME ME!!!!!!!!

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:03 | 3129362 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Amazin' Amazon.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:57 | 3129545 putaipan
putaipan's picture

and now with brick and mortar book and music stores gone ..... poof! .... no books or music.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 12:19 | 3129623 CPL
CPL's picture

Pawn shops and yard sales.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:03 | 3129363 pods
pods's picture

Yikes.  That is grab the oxygen mask territory.

As a tool, Amazon is a fantastic service.  Speaking for myself, I crowdsource items I am going to purchase through Amazon.  The reviews ferret out design flaws, cheapened materials, etc.

In today's world that is invaluable.  With so much junk being peddled, and by companies with a good reputation, you have to DYDD on every purchase that has a moving part or plug.

Amazon is DOA once the state's get their sales tax claws in them.  

pods

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:15 | 3129394 mckee
mckee's picture

"In today's world that is invaluable"

Apparently it's totally valuable... at ~3000 x earnings

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 12:13 | 3129605 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Pods - Unfortunately AMZN's crowd-sourcing value is declining as more paid shills post their "reviews". This is going to kill the golden goose, sooner rather than later IMO.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:14 | 3129400 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Amazon is DOA once the state's get their sales tax claws in them."

Well, maybe.  Here in Texas they have been collecting state sales tax for the last half of 2012.  I still find them to be cheaper than some brick and mortar stores, so I order from them - but only if I can qualify for the free Super Saver Shipping.  The neat trick is that they collect only sales tax on the state level (6%), not the local level, which around most larger cities totals about 8-1/4%.  So, I save almost 2-1/4% in sales tax on top of a lower purchase price.

You are spot-on about the ratings and reviews too.  A goldmine of information from real-world users there.  Of course, some of the reviewers are technically challenged idiots that couldn't get a toaster to work properly, but you can usually root those out based on grammar/spelling.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:22 | 3129424 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Don't worry, once the states get good at collecting their loot, they'll add local in as well. I saw on the local news last week where they were discussing the very issue with the news anchor framing it in terms of "lost" revenue.

And this is in a state that has yet to tax anything on the net.

It'll be interesting when they go after ebay users, and eventually demonize teh ebil Craigslist.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:32 | 3129459 mckee
mckee's picture

I can't wait for them to go after eBay. If they can tax a used item I'm selling I'm writing off the depreciation.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:15 | 3129406 malikai
malikai's picture

Just looking at that number gave me a nosebleed.

I agree. As a tool, Amazon is invaluable. It's a shame really, because after this thing sorts itself out, it'll be a pariah.

Thanks Ben!

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:03 | 3129364 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

#DIV/0!

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:03 | 3129367 The Reich
The Reich's picture

I'd buy on techical numbers but then again, to err is human.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:03 | 3129368 Agent P
Agent P's picture

That's ridiculous...everyone knows it's trailing P/E is only 508x.  All is well.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:07 | 3129377 piliage
piliage's picture

Analysts say this is a buy. What could possibly go wrong?

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:08 | 3129381 Robslob
Robslob's picture

If that aint good enough then add crAAPLe to your must have race to the bottom stock of 2013...

 

Gundlach likes 425...

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:09 | 3129382 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Hey Mr. Blodget should I buy Amazon at this price?

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:11 | 3129390 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

Cramer says this is as good a buy as Bear Sterns! Buy buy buy!!!

;-)

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:10 | 3129391 piliage
piliage's picture

Yes you should. Without question. In fact, buy it on leverage. Then buy some Sony, Kodak, RIM, and HP while you are at it...

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:14 | 3129401 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

Right from the very inception I knew Amazon wouldn't ever make it, yet since its inception people have bought this as if it were gold.

Their cost of goods sold was always too high as compared to revenue.  It hasn't changed and if it weren't for investors it would have died years ago.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:19 | 3129417 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

what decade did this matter?

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:17 | 3129413 liszt
liszt's picture

Yes, by the way, do you believe that inflation is compatible with such a figure ?

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:17 | 3129414 fuu
fuu's picture

I picked up a 3 plug to rca adapater from them last week for $15. Hope that helped a bit.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:28 | 3129444 adr
adr's picture

Should have bought from Monoprice

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:38 | 3129476 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

+1 Monoprice.  Just make sure your order is big enough to justify the shipping (around $8).

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:41 | 3129489 fuu
fuu's picture

Sadly I didn't have a gift card to blow at Monoprice.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:19 | 3129419 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Bugger me rigid. Beats Facebook (P/E 63.8)

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:22 | 3129425 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

It is a dense forest, you can get in easily, but to get out, you need to find the right time and right price.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:23 | 3129428 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I kinda like shopping there. Prime gets you free 2 day shipping and their version of Netflix.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:37 | 3129473 FubarNation
FubarNation's picture

I like ordering things like window AC units and getting the next day shipping for $4 or whatever it is.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:24 | 3129434 MiniCooper
MiniCooper's picture

Amazon is increasingly a distribution company and the typical margin for a distributor is 2%. I dont think the market has realsied this yet.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:25 | 3129438 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Suggestion: ZH should cover the "Jan effect" in the stocks left for dead at the end of 2012. Some of the worst have already found eager buyers. 

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:32 | 3129460 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

It's really sad that companies that have real value and business models are transformed to free-liquidity parking slots where real economic investors are bid out.

In a real market, I think the likes of AMZN and AAPL would have been forced by shareholders to make some real CapEx investments.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 13:33 | 3129862 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Is it true that mutual funds have restrictions of % of shorting stocks and % of holding cash? If so, then they are actually being forced to buy stocks just to comply, thus creating a monster.

Anyone cares to enlighten us on this?  

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:33 | 3129462 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Could  never figure out AMZN. Great service, reliable, but they don't make money. Buy? Thank goodness for MDB to take care of us. lolol

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:45 | 3129506 adr
adr's picture

The Mafia provided great service as well.

You could always great a great deal on a car stereo from that 17 year old kid behind the high school.

 

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:35 | 3129468 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Notice to Investors:

profit is not part of the AMZN business model.

Signed, Jeff 

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:37 | 3129472 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Almost as funny as FB's sudden rise of glory the past couple of months.  I'm shorting that POS on the day of earnings call.  The implosion will be epic.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:44 | 3129498 adr
adr's picture

Be careful, I'm petty sure Fuckerberg got a visit from a "bank agent" in the middle of the night a few months ago. If he didn't start cooking the books I am pretty sure we would have read a headline like, "Facebook billionaire involved in deadly latenight crash outside San Francisco."

Unless realism somehow came back into vogue, Facebook will engineer a massive earnings beat on supposed "mobile revenue expansion".

The is no business in business, only bullshit.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:44 | 3129503 Aztec Warrior
Aztec Warrior's picture

I have my interview next week at AMZN - If they make an offer am going to ask for less stock options in that case and moar cash.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:48 | 3129516 adr
adr's picture

I know quite a few people that work at Amazon. If you read ZH and work there, you will be the smartest person in the building by a pretty substantial margin.

The corporate wing is the greatest collection of half wit imbeciles I have ever had the pleasure to interact with.

Some might say I have an axe to grind, no I just feel like spreading some truth about the most overvalued corporation in history. Every time I deal with Amazon I feel like a need a three hour shower.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:52 | 3129533 Aztec Warrior
Aztec Warrior's picture

Their head hunting for Software enigneers was in full steam in October (when I applied) - then it cooled off. Glassdoor has pretty nasty reviews on the management - however their tech guys are pretty smart so working there shouldnt be that bad - from the operations side - I have read that things are pretty archaic.

I am surprised at the continued decline in the operating income - I suspect that the loss making Kindle division and the frequent distuption of AWS has prompted extra spending.

But still its nasty.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:51 | 3129529 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

AMZN offered me a job in the 1990s and I turned it down.  The company managers then seemed almost preposterous in their exaggerated  future expectations.  I really underestimated this scam. 

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:55 | 3129539 rufusbird
rufusbird's picture

The information provided above is not enough to use to base a decision on. The stock is currently trading at roughly two times revenues per share. current growth about 26 percent. That is why it is where it is. Just saying. They are buying revenue growth. ( I have no interest )

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AMZN+Key+Statistics

 

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:57 | 3129542 Catullus
Catullus's picture

To be fair, they're throwing $3bn a year into R&D. Whatthat's going toward, fuck knows. Hopefully not just the Kindle.

This should be a legit 100 p/e number. Still 5-6x overpriced.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:58 | 3129548 Frastric
Frastric's picture

Tulip mania...

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 12:02 | 3129562 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

NASDAQ100 completing its retrace in a bear trend.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/nasdaq100-daily-falls-moderately-weaker...

 

Get ready to short or long and stay by 5 minute charts for the day.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 12:06 | 3129579 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

California forcing Amazon to charge taxes was huge, and pushed business to smaller online retailers and probably box stores.

Every other state is going to go after them now.

Up over 100% in a couple of years.

FED/Algo bubbilicious!

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 12:33 | 3129673 Bogdog
Bogdog's picture

Man, that P/E has "dumb money" written all over it.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 12:48 | 3129728 arkel
arkel's picture

I ran AMZN's numbers and the stock is worth about $23-$25. It currently has a crazier valution than Facebook (FB should be about $5-$6). Look at the insider trading too.

Over the last 12 Months there have been 165 shares Purchased and 1,023,349 insider shares Sold.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 12:53 | 3129740 rsi1
rsi1's picture

hey! its not about earnings, what are those, its about sales, and when those are crazy.. its about visitors! clicks!

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 13:20 | 3129817 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

NEED SOME HELP ON SOME LINE OF THOUGHT HERE.

 

Is a popping of a bond market rally recently might be a real problem for over indebted countries if the bond purchases are perceived to be inflationary by the bond crowd lemmings.

 

Might point is that losses on government bonds and the resulting steepening of yield curve, and increasing inflation expectation might induced people to stop chasing nominal “gains”on government bonds.

 In a sense it is a good thing because it increases nominal GDP by having monied capital converted into circulation and inflate away the debt as the conventional wisdom goes 

 

PROBLEM ARISES HERE:

 While rising inflation expectation might finally induce people to spend their monied capital into the circulation, what if the following happens:

Tthe rising inflation expectation make the yield curve steepens. People sell bonds and spend them.  So far so good, but if the resulting marginal higher tax revenues are actually lower than the marginal increase in interest on the very large stockpile of debt?

What happens?

 Then the Fed might want to buy bonds to repress rates, but the problem is that if they do that while the economy is perceived to recover, you might have an adverse reaction on the bond markets, because the bond market perceives that the Fed is printing “into inflation” and instead of a rally you have a sell-off.

 If the incremental tax revenues coming from higher circulation (GDP) are lower than the incremental interest on debt due to rising rates. What we have seen in bond market is potentially the beginning of game over, and any more bond purchases by the Fed would trigger more sell-off by market participant.

 

That is exactly what Kyle Bass describes, but in another way. The key is to understand if the increase in nominal GDP due to rising inflation expectation creates marginal tax revenues in excess of or below the rising incremental interest payments. And remember that the printing here does not work anymore because printing into a recovery actually results in hightened bond sell-off as it is perceived to be inflationary. The bond sell-off precipate the multiplier up by curve steepening-spending - higher inflation expecation curve steepening etc... the only problem is that it results in marginal interest payments in excess of marginal tax revenues = DEATH SPIRAL. That is the debt burden creates a differential of delta revenues > delta interests.

So maybe the adverse reaction of bond market in december 12th 2012 to QE4 is actually the trigger debacle ONLY AND ONLY IF incremental tax revenues are lower than incremental interest payments.

 

WHAT KYLE BASS WAS NOT FACTORING WAS THE IMPACT OF INFLATION AND NOMINAL HIGHER GDP (GDP TARGETING) ON MARGINAL INCREASE IN NOMINAL REVENUES (NOT REAL JUST NOMINAL).

IF NOMINAL REVENUES DUE TO INFLATION INCREASE FASTER THAN NOMINAL INTEREST PAYMENTS THAN IT IS ALL GOOD, YOU HAVE INFLATE AWAY. BUT IF IN THE RECOVERY THE INTEREST PAYMENTS INCREASE FASTER THAN NOMINAL REVENUES = DEATH SPIRAL, BECAUSE ANY ATTEMPT TO PRINT TO REPRESS RATES WILL BE MET BY SELL-OFF FROM THE MARKET BECAUSE VIEW AS INFLATIONARY.  

DOES ANYONE HAVE FIGURE ON THAT HERE? A  BLOG LINK?

TYLER, ANY IDEA? BRUCE KRASTING WAS POINTING TO A BIT OF THAT, ANY VIEW? IF THIS IS HAPPENING, MAYBE THE DEATH SPIRAL POINT WAS ACTUALLY TOUCHE BACK ON DEC 12th.


 

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 13:22 | 3129829 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

So, when does AMZN get expensive?

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 13:42 | 3129894 hannah
hannah's picture

MillionDollarBonus_ is full of shit ...i listen to maria but-aroma on cnbc and get all the trading advice i need. i am up 96% since march 2009 and we are only at the START OF THE NEXT BULL MARKET...!!!!!

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 14:48 | 3130134 Eastwood
Eastwood's picture

The FT had a piece last month that highlighted Amazon's abilty to generate a lot of cash through its working capital. Apparently they've got the ability to delay / string out payments to their vendors handsomely.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 16:49 | 3130620 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

It does make one laugh quite a bit.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 03:01 | 3132092 Hugh G.Rection
Hugh G.Rection's picture

Yeah, huge P/E...just like the late 90's.  The thing they have going for them now in 2013 is their web services business, which is what will help reduce that ungodly/unseemly, but accurate P/E ratio. 

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 16:06 | 3133874 Paulson Bazooka
Paulson Bazooka's picture

What's the smart money portal?

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 05:22 | 3135648 lmile61
lmile61's picture

Well is a very smart money portal find the funniest no in it!!! ecommerce web development

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!