This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Speculators Rush Into Risk By Most Since 2007

Tyler Durden's picture





 

In the last two weeks we have pointed out that not only are equity futures traders the most net long in six years but NYSE Margin Debt is also near four year highs. Add to this the fact that VIX futures are the most net short they have ever been - crushed by an all too visible hand - and it appears that equity market participants were critically unafraid of the fiscal cliff uncertainty. What is even more concerning, at least for those who care to be modestly contrarian that is, is that the market appears to be running out of greater fools in every asset class as JPMorgan's speculative position indicator - which combines net positioning across 8 'risky' and 7'safe' assets - is at its most risk-on since just before the crash began in Q3 2007. So, for all those taking heads who expect a flood of new money, who still believe there is money on the sidelines that wants to be put to work, the fact is in the last decade we have been more speculatively positioned long only once - and that marked the top in stocks (and risk-assets everywhere).

 

 

The risky assets are: Copper, GSCI, AUD, NZD, CAD, RUB, MXN and equities (an aggregate of the S&P500, Dow Jones, NASDAQ & Nikkei).

The safe assets are: Gold, VIX, JPY, CHF, Silver, an aggregate of the UST and Eurodollar futures & an aggregate USD index. The USD series is the inverse of the sum of positions in EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD, CAD, RUB and MXN futures. The UST series is a duration weighted aggregate of the Eurodollar, UST2YR, UST5YR, UST10YR, UST long bond & the UST Ultra long bond futures.

Source: JPMorgan

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 01/07/2013 - 09:35 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Sure....I'll take some subsidized gold.

 

This might just go down as the most successful government program ever.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 09:49 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

It's that platinum fix a comin.... Everything be fine
Them platinum coins be rare... They don't mint many of em

Aaaaaaarrrragh!

I wants one for my toof

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 09:55 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Over a decade ago I sat with my calculator trying to estimate the real price of gold.

 

When I pressed enter for the last time I sat there and went........molly geez.......that can't be right.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:39 | Link to Comment I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

A fool and his money are soon parted.  But if a fool is making (err... printing) money better jump on that ship. 

UST Ship-O-Fools cruise lines - head to the Poop Deck for the last tango.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:31 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Just get one of them trillion dollar platinum coins from Uncle Tim!

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/01/06/pennies-40-ton-trilli...

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 09:37 | Link to Comment Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

Nosebleed territory. 
Got gold?

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 09:41 | Link to Comment caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

that new money must be comming from thoes high paying burger flipping jobs and uncle ben of course.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 12:01 | Link to Comment From Germany Wi...
From Germany With Love's picture

In other news now even the technicalities of ECB operations is coming into question in Germany:

'Neither the ECB nor the Bank of France, which is responsible for control of the papers at the STEP market may be documented on which data base will be issued a certification of "eligible".'
http://translate.google.de/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=de&ie=U...

Or more properly translated:
'Yet neither the ECB nor the Banque de France, which is responsible for control of papers on the STEP market, can document on which data basis the certification of "eligible with central banks"
is being issued.'
Shocking, shocking! Or is it.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 09:46 | Link to Comment Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

 

Max Pain baby,

How many time have we been here? where the trade should be a no brainer, only to get burned over and over. Gold is nice, but in these last days of the empire I'm thinking Gin is better...

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 14:09 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Consider stocking up on shooters of all kinds.  In a SHTF scenario, a Jack Daniels shooter can provide you with a great deal of "goods and services".  

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 09:46 | Link to Comment useless_fact
useless_fact's picture

Where can one get updates to this chart when they are provided? Is it made available publicly?

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

This is going to end well...I can't wait for more massive debasement.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

What could possibly go wrong? Ben has your back...until he doesn't.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 09:56 | Link to Comment caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

more like he has your back in his sights

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:49 | Link to Comment HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

"What could possibly go wrong? Ben has your back...until he doesn't."

Is that 'back' or 'backside' ?

A lot of people definitely feel like they've been raped.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 09:53 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The full-retard is strong.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 09:54 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

85 billion a month and HFT algo manipulation VS reality and fundamentals

Place your bets folks. No refunds.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:54 | Link to Comment HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

I've got some of the same kinda thoughts & feelings I had when seriously contemplating long positions in real estate . . . just before the crash.

Hmmmm . . . criminality versus reality.  Which way to bet ?

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:09 | Link to Comment reload
reload's picture

Those "perhaps it realy is a new paradime ..and...shit:I must not miss the boat" thoughts and feelings are exactly what Ben wants you to be having.

Just THINK up some immages of reality to fend them off.

for STARTERS

50 million Americans on foodstamps

An economy kept afloat by government largesse with newly minted money.

Unnacountable bankers and politicians standing astride a global ecconomy awash with debt and not enough hard assets to back it and barely the cashflow to service it.

Youth unemployment in many parts of Europe in the 50% region.

China starting to choke on its own debt creation - empty cities and trainless tracks to nowhere.

Japan ecconomicaly imploding and suffering a Nuclear catastrophe.

Workers worldwide experiencing shrinking disposable incomes in real terms.

Corpoare profits a mirage and accounting fraud endemic.

So...what do you feel like buying now?

Its hard....but Jack Daniels looks a sensible purchase.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 09:55 | Link to Comment Al Capowned
Al Capowned's picture

Based on the half life of QE, printing should resume February....

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:01 | Link to Comment ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Where's MDB when we need him? Courage man! Hold steady on course!

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:03 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Fuck you Dimon. Fucking tool.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:06 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Gold considered safe? Now that's funny! Yeah, no risk at all attached to gold. bwa ah ah!

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:09 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You can put it in a pot, and make ya soup!

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:11 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

someone i know bought two houses at the height of the housing bubble. for the last two years they have been pimping gold like there is no tomorrow. This person is my perfect shoe shine indicator.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Billy Batts

"Now go home and get your f*****g shine box!"

 

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:10 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Well....not in the last 10 years anyway.

 

It was either buy that or smoke crack and buy Enron.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:12 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

you haven't made anything until you sell.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:13 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Sell.......for what?

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:15 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

here we go again lmao

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:18 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Dude.....it's not nice to make fun of blondes like me.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:25 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

apologies. :tips cap:

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:12 | Link to Comment Future Jim
Future Jim's picture

How is "an all too visible hand" keeping the VIX low, and why? Is that a desired goal? I would think that anyone with the ability to control it would want it to go up and down so that they could profit from the swings that only they knew would happen.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:18 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Not when the wife and family books are involved. 

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:29 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

I can't tell if your asking a real question or being sacastic but here is the man...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-26/help-us-oh-kevin-henry-you-are-...

...and the plan is not for the Fed to profit from the trade but inspire "confidence" at any price.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Future Jim
Future Jim's picture

It is a real question. Two real questions, and I did not understand how the link you provided answered them.

So the goal is to inspire confidence at any price, but how are they doing that? I have no confidence at all. Who are they fooling, and how are they fooling them?

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 11:41 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Kevin Henry's job - his sole purpose on this earth is to bang the close, buy the dips, crush the vix and keep the S&P above 1380. It might even say as much on his business cards.

You shouldn't have any confidence, they are not fooling anyone - which is why the Fed has no choice but to print 85 billion a month... but Ben won't ever stop believing in "the wealth effect".

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-03/david-rosenberg-rip-wealth-effect

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 14:19 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:13 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

This market keeps going higher.  SP500 daily is going up regardless of what the economy says.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-daily-pushes-higher-weaker-volume/

 

Government tax dollars (once yours and my dollars) are being blown to keep this market up.  Thanks Barry.  Thanks Ben.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:16 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Gee how long can that really last for? Certainly not a long-term plan of any kind.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:41 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

I talked to a relative by phone this weekend.  They still watch TV and Hollywood's shit like other retards. 

They think things are not so bad and asked how is the stock market doing.  They and other average people think the market is going up so life is pretty good.  $16 trillion in debt growing exponentially, 20 milllion new guns sold in 2012 because smarter people are freaking out - they don't want to hear it. SUper bowl is coming and the big college ball game is on tonight.  The new season of TV shows for morons.

Clinton learned -  Keep the markets up and you can get away with anything.  At least with Clinton and Bush, the bond markets kept them somewhat honest. 

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:16 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

So you're tellin us nobody has any money cause it's all tied up in long term crapitalizm. Execpt the middle man who does get paid every six months.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:17 | Link to Comment gjp
gjp's picture

And MS upgrades AMZN, claiming that sales will be over $200b by 2016.  And even if they had a 5% margin (zero now, never been higher than 3%), stock would be 12x 2016 earnings today.  I guess it's priced in, what could go wrong?

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:19 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

Yikes.

DavidC

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:22 | Link to Comment Eastwood
Eastwood's picture

@Tyler, these are better when axis(s) are labeled and source(s) of data are on graphic itself.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

We´ll soon see a correction like that from Oct. thru Nov. last. The market is massively overbought. 80% of stocks are above the 50-day MA and 72% above the 200-day.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

The biggest Black Swan of them all is that the Fed suddenly decides not to print. 

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 10:44 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Krugman says Obama must be ready to mint trillion Platinum coin.

http://www.businessinsider.com/nobel-prize-winner-paul-krugman-obama-must-get-ready-to-mint-the-trillion-dollar-coin-2013-1

Krugman is an evil idiot.

Mon, 01/07/2013 - 13:02 | Link to Comment GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

The January dash for trash is underway. The level of complacency is at fever pitch again while the VIX is asleep. 2013 is the year they get caught with their pants down.

Draghi told the market he'd do everything he could to save the euro and that was the catalyst for the monster rally. But what did he do? Nothing. Just jawboned some biased rhetoric. No man can stop destiny.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!