• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

Gold And Silver Win As Stocks And VIX Drop For Second Day

Tyler Durden's picture


Despite the vol-compressing efforts, the S&P 500 closed down for the second day in a row as the last 30 minutes or so saw a totally normal +/-5point roller-coaster around VWAP in its very 'human' way. The afternoon's dips and rips as VIX melted down further (now recoupled with SPX) had the feel of hedged longs unwinding both legs and for sure VWAP was the focus as Treasury yields fell and the USD rose on the day. Despite USD strength, precious metals rose into the green for the week. Risk assets in general saw correlations rise as the day progressed but the very narrow 10 point or so range that ES has traded in since the initial gap-open on Jan 2nd seems vulnerable here - and perhaps explains the urgency to compress the front-end vol to keep us up. Interestingly S&P 500 futures closed today at almost exactly the VWAP for the year (around 1452) so far. HY credit dumped into the close but overall it was a normal day of two halves - selling into the European close and buying after...


It appears spot VIX has recoupled with stocks now from the pre-hedging phase a week before the holidays. However, as is clear in the chart below, the March VIX (i.e. past the debt ceiling deadline) is increasing under pressure...


The year so far across risk assets in general... Gold started to catch up today to equities...


Today was all about the European close...and HYG's dump into the close...


and close up detail shows the VWAP oscillation in the afternoon to save us from the gap-open lows tested at the European close...


Doesn't exactly feel like the great rotation eh?


and cross-asset class correlation picked up... but equities pulled notably rich once to risk-assets in the afternoon (right) after recoupling from last night's decoupling...


Gold and Silver are winning on the week (with stocks -0.5% or so)...


Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

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Tue, 01/08/2013 - 17:34 | 3134172 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

PMs out perform S&P? Bwah! Nevah! Poppycock!

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 17:39 | 3134186 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Miners have been under accumulation by several large hedges....for several weeks....just a matter of time....but my advice to you if this trade makes you scared is to stay away.....if you are already in it then sell your shares to me

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 18:10 | 3134274 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

The Silver names in particular i would say. Physical market and reality will soon force the paper shorts to sort themselves out. US Mint January silver sales 4,287,000 oz

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 21:59 | 3134823 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Been buying dore bars myself....can't compete with Joe Sixpack anymore. 


Word is so is Russia and China.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 20:29 | 3134583 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I got raped by miners last year. Never again. My oil stuff has done shite, but Sprint has been ok. Mostly Meh thus far.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:01 | 3134832 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Screwed by paper again......didn't see it coming.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 18:28 | 3134311 midtowng
midtowng's picture

It's gonna take a lot more than one day.

Gold underperformed the stock market last year, and it hasn't done anything so far this year.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 17:35 | 3134177 SuperDeDuper
SuperDeDuper's picture

Yawn.  I miss congress fighting.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 17:35 | 3134179 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

TLT - spooky eerie. let's hear it from the bond crash bitchez. I can't wait to buy the debt ceiling chocolate bond double dip bitchez. MUA AH AH!

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 18:49 | 3134382 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

It's true...people have no idea of the relationship between rates and equity returns. These "rotation" proponents better hope they are wrong or they will be taking the first losses.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 17:42 | 3134192 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

AA seems to have done OK with earnings.   Why is ZH mum?

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 17:52 | 3134226 michiganmaven
michiganmaven's picture

Miss on rev and beat on EPS after cost cutting? thats ok? boy we have fallen a long way from the pre-crisis where OK meant you had to beat both.. good meant you beat BOTH by a lot.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 17:47 | 3134213 helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

Vix and S&P down????


I thought when vix went down market went up!!!!!

Still short the S&P and getting my lunch eaten. If I wouldn't have gotten stopped (trick) out of my upro position I'd be rich.

Now I'm short and poor.

two things you never want to be.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 17:48 | 3134215 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

I like colored charts. They are very pretty.

With earnings down after downward revisons, the smart money may be hellishly bullish. Super duper QE High Five might be on the way. Be that as it may, I am not unwinding my skk position yet. Fuck em.

It is only fiat.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 17:48 | 3134217 blackbishop
blackbishop's picture

I am sorry did not buy all my HLF on Tilsons' news, did not think it could be such a precise contrarian call. Thank you ZH

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 17:54 | 3134229 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

Man I better find my shovel - this stuff is only 5 bux to dig outta the ground!

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 18:57 | 3134397 Howdan
Howdan's picture

WTF is going on in VIX? Is the market really pricing in virtually no implied volatility in the next few weeks?

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 20:25 | 3134577 cnhedge2
cnhedge2's picture

gold will rally in Q1.


Wed, 01/09/2013 - 06:44 | 3135700 awakening
Wed, 01/09/2013 - 04:21 | 3135567 lmile61
lmile61's picture

Day by day gold is become very costly...its became expensive to buy it!!!!!!!!!! magento development

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