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Guest Post: Japan Explores War Scenarios with China

Tyler Durden's picture


Via J. Michael Cole of The,

As Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party national defense task force announced on Jan. 8 that it would increase the nation’s defense budget by more than 100 billion yen ($1.15 billion), three of five scenarios explored by the defense ministry recently involve the Self-Defense Forces squaring off against the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

While contingencies involving North Korea’s ballistic missiles and Russia were among the scenarios the defense ministry explored, the top three all involved a crisis in the East China Sea. The first scenario examined a war between China and Japan over the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands in the East China Sea. Earlier on Tuesday Japan summoned the Chinese ambassador in Tokyo for the first time since Shinzo Abe was sworn in as prime minister to protest the continued presence of official Chinese ships in waters around the islets, which are claimed by Japan, Taiwan and China.

The second scenario, meanwhile, expands on a Senkaku contingency and looks at a widening war involving PLA attempts to seize the Ishigaki and Miyako Islands west of northern Taiwan.

The third, and perhaps most controversial, scenario focuses on how Japan would react to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2021, a date reportedly chosen because it coincides with the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). According to the scenario, the PLA would rely mostly on amphibious vehicles, special forces, ballistic missiles, and a fighter blockade to achieve its ends.

Although the latter scenario makes it clear that the hostilities would primarily involve the PLA and Taiwanese military forces, it nevertheless raises the possibility that China would attack U.S. and Japanese bases on Okinawa, while using long-range ballistic missiles, such as the DF-21D and DF-31, to threaten aircraft carriers in the region and the Western United States should U.S. forces attempt to intervene in the conflict.

Interestingly, Japan would have a responsibility to come to Taiwan’s aid in the event the PLA engages Taiwanese forces, the Japanese-language Sankei Shimbun said in its reporting on the scenarios on Jan. 1.

There has been much speculation over the years about whether Tokyo would intervene if the PLA ever invaded Taiwan. Reports in 2007 alleged that Japanese and U.S. officials, alarmed by growing Chinese might, were considering a plan to coordinate their actions under such a contingency, with Japan providing rear-area support for U.S. forces as stipulated under the Guidelines for Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation. It is no coincidence that the efforts in 2007 also occurred when Abe, who is regarded as pro-Taiwan, was in power.

The two countries late last year also agreed to negotiate possible changes to the bilateral guidelines to better reflect changes in the strategic situation as well as give Japanese forces more room to maneuver.

While the scenarios remain in the realm of speculation, Japan’s inclusion of a Taiwan contingency again underscores the importance Tokyo places on Taiwan remaining de-facto independent. Certainly, China’s assertiveness in 2012 in both the East China and the South China Sea has done little to reassure Tokyo that it could live comfortably with a CCP-controlled Taiwan so close to its waters and territory. As such, rather than being amenable to “abandoning” Taiwan, as a handful of U.S. academics have been arguing for the sake of “improved” ties with Beijing, Tokyo may become more inclined to ensure that the island continues to serve as a natural barrier to Chinese expansion.

According to Japanese sources, the largely symbolic 100 billion yen increase in defense spending announced on Jan. 8 will serve to fund research into a new radar system and to cover fuel and other maintenance costs for early-warning aircraft. But this is only the first step, and there could be many more to come. The defense budget for FY2012 ending in March was just 4.69 trillion yen (US$61 billion), or a little more than 1 percent of GDP, leaving ample room for expansion should Japan’s strategic environment continue to deteriorate in the weeks ahead.


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Tue, 01/08/2013 - 21:58 | 3134809 knukles
knukles's picture

Just arm the Japs with Nukes and have a real good olde eugenic cleansing and carbon footprint eradication holiday.

There's a silver lining to every nucleotide cloud


(This shit is just so fucking far out of control... why can't everybody just hold hands and sing Kumbayah?)

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:00 | 3134827 ACP
ACP's picture

Yes...why can't we all just......get along?

Even Germany is starting to get into the fray:

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:06 | 3134843 lewy14
lewy14's picture

If Iran is getting nukes, why not Japan?

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:08 | 3134848 ACP
ACP's picture

Speaking of the modern arms light of the coming (attempted) firearms confiscation......time to learn some new skills:

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:21 | 3134882 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture
Japan Explores War Scenarios with China

and goes Ouch!!!

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:41 | 3134929 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

It would make Barry happy to have Japan solve one of his biggest problems. But then, isn't that how affirmative action works? 

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 11:31 | 3136457 trav777
trav777's picture

all of the outcomes lead to an inescapable conclusion:  japan will have to move beyond just being a de facto nuclear weapons state and announce.

It's a good thing China won't have the sealift capability by 2021 to invade Taiwan, so that scenario is moot.  Japan's navy is presently FAR superior to China's and will remain so long past any of these timelines.  Operational experience in blue water combat takes generations of sailors.  You cannot just buy a bunch of ships and be a great navy.  It's been tried before and it failed miserably.

China's attempt at amphibious invasion of taiwan would provoke laughter and then a shooting gallery.  See Chuenpee and the Opium Wars.  If numerical superiority trumped tactics, the Incas would have won, so would the Armada, and the fighting King loses at Agincourt.  Nevermind Salamis and a ton of other battles where experience trumped all over numbers.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 15:04 | 3137442 BattlegroundEur...
BattlegroundEurope2011's picture

Problem is Japan's Navy will be manned by OAPs.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 00:06 | 3135104 Ignatius
Wed, 01/09/2013 - 10:00 | 3136018 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

This war talk is strictly for Japanese domestic consumption.


Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:10 | 3134853 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Japan's supposed 24 hours to nuke capability?  Think they're gonna test it out?

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:40 | 3134923 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Like in Dr.Strangelove... a deterrent nobody knows about is WORTHLESS.

Or are they waiting for a massive Taiwan pre-invasion mobilization by China to deploy the nukes for everyone to see??

Fact is, most Japanese are against nukes. If it were made public, people would be freaking mad... and that is saying a lot from today's pussy generation of Japanese.

So me thinks they are just waiting for ``ultimate crisis time`` to make them public. They won't bring them out before they have to.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 01:43 | 3135350 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Debatable, there's an Israeli politician's quote out there about neither confirming nor denying posession of nuclear weapons. :)

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 02:57 | 3135474 Element
Element's picture

The real-world impact is that Beijing is already being forced to presume Japan is nuclear-armed. There's no choice, they have to presume that is the case. Thus a nuclear test is not even required to impart sufficient diplomatic and posture effects. Ambiguity is sufficient, and that ambiguity will not be resolved as there is no gain in doing so (but there is gain in making their nuclear status more suspicious and ambiguous ... so expect it).

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 07:36 | 3135731 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"Fact is, most Japanese are against nukes." WWII, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, you might have forgotten, but the "pussy" Japanese have not

btw, name a foreign power interested in invading Japan, if you can - this spate is all about a few little islands an a lot of "territorial" waters

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 08:31 | 3135791 Element
Element's picture

The Japanese are terrified of DPRK satellite launches. ;-) The reason of course for the serial Tokyo freak-outs is the possibility of a NORK EMP attack (they just never want to admit it ... schhh!).

The issue with China is more of a case of Tokyo fearing payback due to a feeling of unfinished business within China's perceptions, rather than a fear of invasion. So anything can lead to a desire for Beijing to put Japan on the mat militarily, and force them to negotiate a cessation of hostilities on terms that gives China some sense of retribution over past grievances. But with the possibility of nukes present, China won't try to go that far. But they may still have a serious but more limited series of high-intensity but localized naval and air skirmishes.

Interesting that the US has decided to get out of the way and let them face-off.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 08:48 | 3135808 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

excellent comments, food for thought. meanwhile Japan is nevertheless reinforcing it's economic ties with Beijing and the EU, and is having talks about ESM bonds for it's Yen dumping excercise

perhaps Japan is giving some thought about a world without that fancy yearly martial ballet called 5th Fleet Chinese Sea Manouvers?

which leads me to one question open: Bush II expected officially some 60bn expenditures for the Iraq Invasion, the real costs were a silly multiple of it

has the global hegemon started to price it's military interventions out of competition? I was shocked when Taiwan wanted some diesel-electric subs and GE and the others told Bush "we only do nuclear", as a silly example

the British Empire had a similar moment with it's expensive cruisers and dreadnoughts, and the first sea they left was... Japan's. they even made an ad-hoc naval alliance with them for that very reason. I do not see an exact repeat of that, but Asians have a long memory, as we know

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 11:35 | 3136475 trav777
trav777's picture

Japan's consitution prohibits war and nukes.

But they are a defacto nuclear weapons state anyhow.  There is a pretty sizeable chunk of the population that is not opposed to nukes even now.  Let China actually start military operations and see how the numbers increase rapidly.

Japan has something like 100 metric tons of Pu239 onshore and another 300 stored elsewhere.  All you really have to do is mash this sh!t together really hard and you have an atomic bomb, just not a good one.  Japan's space program gives them intercontinental delivery means; they lift heavy satellites into orbit all the time.  From a technology perspective, they could have top-notch thermonuclear weapons assembled and ready to fire in a week.

Nevermind how the Indians would respond to that type of belligerence. 

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 07:08 | 3135717 CPL
CPL's picture

They already did and they will, not maybe, lose most of their population from cancer and other fun side effects of radiation.



Wed, 01/09/2013 - 11:35 | 3136480 trav777
trav777's picture

BFS they will and cancer kills the elderly anyhow.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:57 | 3134959 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

lewy14 asked:

If Iran is getting nukes, why not Japan?

Is Iran getting nukes? Last I heard, both US and Israeli intelligence agreed that there is no evidence of an Iranian nuclear weapon program.

Did something change?

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 07:12 | 3135719 CPL
CPL's picture

Yes, geological instability of the oil well salt dome structures.


They bomb anymore than they have to and they'll lose all of MENA as 100 mile caverns open up and swallow most of the desert.  If everyone has noted all actions have avoided dropping gaint bunker busters since Gulf War 1

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:11 | 3134851 knukles
knukles's picture

Probably because nobody wants to just all get along.  Everybody wants their own piece, bigger than their buddys and more humongous than their enemies who they think oughta go rot in hell, while the forces of darkness and evil incite their minions to revolt against the truth and good of men through false hopes and promises which cannot be fulfilled causing great consternation and anger which in turn is refocused upon imaginary enemies to congeal the masses for the raping of their own kind, blind to the success of the Satanic leaders .

Why can't people just get the fuck along?
Because the path of good men is constantly beset upon all sides by the inequities of the selfish, the tyranny and falsehoods of evil men.

It might just as well be the true time of the so called Apocalypse, for men are doing their damnedest to make it sure look and feel that way.  There is true evil abounding ever so freely in this world.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:16 | 3134869 ACP
ACP's picture

The Greek Goddess of Evolution, Libertarianisis, will definitely be prominent in this world the next several decades.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:22 | 3134888 max2205
max2205's picture

Japs need to lean chineeeeese. This won't end well

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 00:18 | 3135126 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Knukles my good man this is a post about Japan and China, not Congress.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:31 | 3134909 secret_sam
secret_sam's picture

Japanese can take long-term perspective.  Overt military conflict unwise.  Announce Chinese peaceful partnership and provide nuclear power facility design and engineering services for all of mainland China.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 01:02 | 3135275 TotalCarp
TotalCarp's picture

Trouble is when it comes to china/jap/korean relations in this region noone is capable of thinking straight. Everyones propaganda endures the flames of hatred are not going to be extinguished. Why do you think the jap cretin Abe is making all these noises?
To focus popular anger on the foreign enemy rather then his own corrupt criminal party. Same is happening in china.
So yes it is very unwise but 1 stupid trigger happy cunt jumps the gun and we'll be off to the races in no time

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 23:12 | 3134997 johnconnor
johnconnor's picture

Yes, and then I'll unleash my army of terminators to rule over the survivors...

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 00:18 | 3135124 philipat
philipat's picture

Makes no sense to go to war over a few rocks. Perhaps Japan needs to divert attention from domestic problems (Expect O'Bottom to do the same shortly) and China needs a dry run for a larger piece of real estate in the South China Sea?

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 01:29 | 3135328 balolalo
balolalo's picture

either way it is going to get boiling hot...

The Australia map is extra depressing.  Drill baby drill. 

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 09:30 | 3135930 flattrader
flattrader's picture

>>>Just arm the Japs with Nukes and have a real good olde eugenic cleansing and carbon footprint eradication holiday.<<<

Japan has nukes and they are doing a good job of killing themselves.

All China has to do is stand back and wait.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 21:57 | 3134813 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

2021? I don't have that kind of time.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 21:57 | 3134814 ball-and-chain
ball-and-chain's picture

Abe's a true lunatic.

The man is a hardcore nationalist.

The world would be better off with Tojo.

Economic distress always brings out the worst in people.

The Imperial Japanese Empire is back on the move.

That's just wonderful.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 00:22 | 3135137 philipat
philipat's picture

Agreed. China should just leave Japan to self-destruct. If inflation reaches 2% as Abe wants, the interest on the national debt (250% 0f GDP) will not be available. Chink mate?

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 03:02 | 3135487 Element
Element's picture

It's not just that, the Chinese have done many things in the last few years to make the Japs feel vulnerable and insecure, as well as challenged. It's natural that the people will demand they rouse themselves to cover that sense of pressure.  This is a trigger issue both in China and in Japan, and for sure now Japan will step up preparedness for armed defence. Who wouldn't, given all that has happened.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 21:58 | 3134819 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

"(Japan) Defense budget rises after decade of falls"

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 07:21 | 3135720 CPL
CPL's picture

Let's see.  7500 yen buys a Melon right now.  About 85 dollars.  180 Billion yen would buy 2 billion dollars worth of oil, which would run Tokyo for about 17 hours.


They didn't increase spending at all.  180 billion yen is an obvious bribe for someone.


Japan mulls over 5 tril. yen new debt issue for extra budget


Size of extra budget may test ¥12 trillion


Japan to boost defense budget by more than Y180 bil


Gold lures Japan's Pension funds as Abe targets inflation <--- Telling me they can't afford anything they don't produce.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:00 | 3134828 impermanence
impermanence's picture

I'll put my money on the country that's been there forever.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:02 | 3134834 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Japan doesn't need a nuke. They could just load all their nuclear waste and radioactive soil in cargo

planes and drop that on the Chinese and kill two birds with one stone.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:07 | 3134845 cnhedge2
cnhedge2's picture

bilateral interest is so huge, a war is mutually destructive.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 07:26 | 3135725 BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

World Wars always are.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:07 | 3134846 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Flowers of War

The Flowers of War, previously titled Nanjing Heroes and 13 Flowers of Nanjing, is a 2011 Chinese historical drama war film directed by Zhang Yimou, starring Christian Bale, Ni Ni, Zhang Xinyi,...


Japanese are playing with a hornets nest ...hornets who have a long memory.



Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:14 | 3134862 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

That was a good film, I really appreciated the story telling.  There was a message in the film of heroism, but it took a bit to build up.  I found it too troubling to watch at times actually.


Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:40 | 3134919 news printer
news printer's picture

Empire of the Sun

starring Christian Bale but as a young boy

That was a brilliant film

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:49 | 3134949 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

The connections...Bale was in Flowers of War too.

Well Holy Shit.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 11:39 | 3136508 trav777
trav777's picture

ROTFL.  Hornet's nest?  Who the hell has China EVER beaten decisively in a war?

China is a historical joke, dude.  Most of their current belligerence sources from small penis syndrome because the japanese stomped all over them 70 years ago; everybody did.  They were like the world's whore.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 20:12 | 3138971 ersatzteil
ersatzteil's picture

That's before they had anti-ship ramjet missiles made by MKB Raduga from Russia. If you come to the party using those things, the other side will be swimming home.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:09 | 3134852 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

I feel very naive for asking this question, I assume because Japan is an island it can defend itself maybe but why are they given much more consideration?

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:20 | 3134875 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Different reasons out there.  One of which is the encirclement of China/Russia since WW2 + CW.

Methinks Japan was called the "unsinkable aircraft carrier" of the Pacific for USA.  As a counterbalance to Chinese power and provides a friendly military port for US Navy.

And then of course there's the fact they are #1 or #2 holder of US T's.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:22 | 3134885 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

jj, your last one explains it for me, thank you

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 02:03 | 3135389 JamesBond
JamesBond's picture

and Japan continues to buy US T's in an effort to reach parity with China -

they don't want china having the upper 'economic' hand over the USA.  they can't

afford geo-politically to be in second fiddle place...



Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:29 | 3134904 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

replying to my own post, the only reason I ask is because, Japan isn't any kind of imperial power, without the USA what would they be left with?

A bunch of radioactive lights and cool tv channels.?

God bless the people there though, the strong ones will survive.


Wed, 01/09/2013 - 01:52 | 3135364 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

They used an Imperial power to be until they were pacified post-WW2 with the implementation of a new Constitution ( during the US Occupation.


The key of it is Article 9 which essentially removed Japan's ability to go to war (


However, this did not mean Japan could not have a strong defensive short range force I guess just not blue water.  Post-9/11 Japan (and Germany) were able to stretch out further with the eagerness and the blessings of being a part of the US Coalition.  Initial "stretching" involved sending supply ships and other support into the field.  There was a bit of uproar since this was almost like Japan sending troops out.  From there we've had successive attempts to repeal or modify Article 9.


Repealing Article 9 is contentious because of the Japan's Imperial expansionist past... which pissed off all their neighbors. (example:


So the question of what would Japan be left with?  We'll have to see what happens when/if the previous yoke of US hegemony is removed.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 01:54 | 3135372 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Also, to add to earlier in the string - I think many players in the Pacific to an extent welcome US military + political presence because it has restrained and maintained a balance of sorts within the region.  From before it was keeping the Japanese under control and now providing a balance against an increasingly influential China.


But theories abound.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 03:24 | 3135525 Element
Element's picture



"... However, this did not mean Japan could not have a strong defensive short range force I guess just not blue water ..."

You better take a look at the Japanese navy more closely, they have had a substantial blue-water fleet for decades, with extremely capable top-tier attack ships in service today. And they have many more advanced cooperative engagement capable networked missile destroyers and frigates than China has anything comparable. Plus they have a large and impressive regional range airborne anti-sub capability, plus new LHDs and a host of ASW helicopters. First rate highly maintained gear abounds. Their SSKs are also no slouches. China would have one hell of a fight on its hands in any blue-water context against the Japanese, and they know it.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:20 | 3134878 chump666
chump666's picture

Lock it in.

Both China and japan can whip up patriotic fervor and issue war bonds.  Will most likely get Japan back into the black, problem?  Is how to start a skirmish without a full blown wipe-out.  Solution.  Navel battle, just like Russia/Japan war early 1900's


Wed, 01/09/2013 - 00:16 | 3135122 patb
patb's picture

naval battles involve air battles now in the last 100 years.


Japan has 804 aircraft with 424 fighters,


china has 1400 aircraft including 120 bombers.  


The Chinese can keep a lot of iron in the air and keep raining pain on japanese air bases.  if they whack on those, japan can project a heck of a lot less air power.

the Japanese have a decent navy, about 50 ships and a dozen or so submarines, but,  if they come out, i think the chinese will hit them with waves of missiles.



Wed, 01/09/2013 - 00:28 | 3135154 chump666
chump666's picture

Japan should do well, if it's contained on the water/air battles.  I'd say, out on a limb here, that the Japanese could be better trained/equipped fighters, than the Chinese plus Japan has a history of Navy (strategically) superiority. 

Sure if goes nuclear,  we might as well have that last drink and last F***.  We are all done.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 03:39 | 3135536 Element
Element's picture

Chinese bombers? Between SM2 destroyers, hundreds of fighters and patriot defenses, those bombers and their weapons would not last, nor even be useable, before the airspace and naval fleet were cleared first, plus SAM units defeated.

This is Japan, not the Maldives. Many of the Chinese 'bombers' are ancient crap from the 1950s that truck cruise missiles (like the US 1950s era B-52 fleet does). They can not survive more than minutes in a high-threat environment.

Japan would in the meantime slam the PLAAF bomber bases and ports, and their support infrastructure, with thousands of cruise-weapons from ships, subs, and a constant stream of strike-fighters. And that's without the USN, USMC or USAF doing anything to support them. Japan is anything but a push-over.

The reality is China isn't going to do anything to bring on a battle like that, and Japan is not going to start a battle like that.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 06:18 | 3135681 JamesBond
JamesBond's picture


the nikkei 225 will rise throuhout 2013.  abe is bringing inflation to japan and this will result in a stronger yen and improved export markets.  by the end of 2013, japan will be overall stronger economically.



Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:22 | 3134887 q99x2
q99x2's picture

People in the Bronx used a similar strategy when in the 1980s the economy took a dive. They started fires in their apartments.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:24 | 3134895 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Japan; The mouse that roared.

Problem; China is a very large male cat.

End of story.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 02:07 | 3135394 JamesBond
JamesBond's picture

post script -

china and japan will trade punches and then the mouses owner (USA) will step between them and send them to their respective corners...



Wed, 01/09/2013 - 08:58 | 3135824 flapdoodle
flapdoodle's picture

The "mouse" defeated the Russian Navy in 1905 and wiped out the US Fleet in Pearl Harbor in 1941.


What has the Chinese Navy ever done?

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:29 | 3134907 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

While Pakistan and India are having fun too :

Pakistan: Indian troops cross border, kill soldier; India says Pakistan fired first

Pakistan kills two Indian soldiers on Indian territory

Two Indian soldiers were killed and another two injured by Pakistani army troops who crossed into Indian territory along the Line of Control in Kashmir. The body of one of the jawans who was killed was mutilated, said sources. This is one of the worst violations of the nearly decade-long ceasefire between India and Pakistan.

Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid said India would deliver a "proportionate response" to the "ghastly" killings in Kashmir on Tuesday which he said were designed to sabotage an already fragile peace process.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:34 | 3134914 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

I went on on the ndtv link and I got a  pop up screen for some facebook crap.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:41 | 3134928 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Sorry about that. Get firefox with ads blocker...

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:59 | 3134957 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

err thats what I have...try again.  User fucking error.

edit: can't delete my original reply, your post gave me a lot to think  about.

like why I don't have any more beer.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 23:14 | 3135000 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Here for some more thinking :,8599,1873164,00.html#ixzz2HOlY...

Tensions between India and Pakistan have been high recently. If they escalated to all-out nuclear war, what would be the effect to the global climate?

We looked at a scenario in which each country used 50 Hiroshima-sized weapons, which they are believed to have in their arsenals. That's enough firepower to kill around 20 million people on the ground. We were surprised that the amount of smoke produced by these explosions would block out sunlight, cool the planet, and produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history.

Your study predicts mass cooling. With all the heat and radioactivity of the explosions, why wouldn't nuclear war warm the planet?

It has nothing to do with the radioactivity of the explosions — although that would be devastating to nearby populations. The explosions would set off massive fires, which would produce plumes of black smoke. The sun would heat the smoke and lift it into the stratosphere — that's the layer above the troposphere, where we live — where there is no rain to clear it out. It would be blown across the globe and block the sun. The effect would not be a nuclear winter, but it would be colder than the little ice age [in the 17th and 18th centuries] and the change would happen very rapidly — over the course of a few weeks.

Would you be able to see the smoke?

The sky would not be blue. It would be grey.

And what would the results be for humanity?

We calculated that there would be a shortening of the growing season in the mid-latitudes — that includes Europe and America in the Northern Hemisphere — by a couple of weeks. The growing season is defined as the period between the last frost in spring and first frost in the fall. Some crops that need the whole growing season would not reach fruition and there would be no yield. Others would grow more slowly and produce a small yield. In addition there would be less precipitation and it would be darker, also damaging yield. You compound that with [the shutdown of] the current global network of food trading — countries would likely stop shipping food and focus on feeding their own populations — and it's a big crisis. We don't have the resources to do detailed analyses on the impacts of crops in different farming regimes but this suggests it could be a very serious problem.

The lifetime of soot from nuclear fires is about five years. It's obviously much harder for a society to recover from such an extended cooling.


Now just imagine 5 years of no more imports/exports of food and very low yields... the world woul fall into chaos it wouldn't be long... it would probably lead to wars, civil wars and maybe nuclear wars.... all of that just because some assholes in Pakistan wanted to kill some Indians.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 23:55 | 3135084 Orly
Orly's picture

Haven't we seen this before?

When J. Robert Oppenheimer was asked if the Alamogordo bomb was the first nuclear bomb, he said, "In modern times, yes." 

He read the Bhagavad Gita in the original Sanskrit.  When he was asked to decribe his feelings about being the "Father of the Atomic Bomb" while on Meet the Press, he quoted from the ancient text, saying, "I am become Death, the Destroyer of Worlds."


Wed, 01/09/2013 - 00:01 | 3135097 chump666
chump666's picture

Orly, a few years ago I picked up a piece of Trintite, framed with a pic of the 1945 explosion.  Still gives off radiation (very, very mild) to this day.

Cool huh?

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 00:07 | 3135105 Orly
Orly's picture

A rather macabre piece of history, Chump, but probably worth having.


Wed, 01/09/2013 - 00:33 | 3135173 chump666
chump666's picture

I know, but put it this way, great conversation piece.  You know, "does it glow in the dark?", " it would make a nice stone for a ring", "could it mutate your cat" etc etc etc

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 03:55 | 3135545 Element
Element's picture

Hi Orly,

That is not the case though. The evidence from uranium deposits is clear, as prior mining would be absolutely obvious and detected almost immediately. The easy-to-find and easy-to-get-to near-surface alluvial deposits and primary uranium deposits which existed prior to the nuclear-age's industrial mining were unworked. No uranium mining had been occurring on earth prior to recent times or the disturbance to the rock units themselves and geochemical aureole signatures would be very conspicuous. This is the first time this experiment has been run, disregard those claims.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:36 | 3134912 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Japan once believed they could conquer and hold all of Korea as a subject state. At the same time Japan tried to take and hold most of coastal China and turn Manchuria into a province of Japan. None of this is lost on Korea and China. Japan playing at being a helpless victim of agressive neighbors is not likley to play well in China and Korea. The USA on the other hand sees Japan as the key to Asia, just as they see the UK as the key to Europe. The US likes to hold these two key nations as allies and forward military bases. As of now, the US does hold both nations.

China is not sure yet sure how to proceed as it's economic power grows. Defense is the best postion for them as their technology is too backward at present to stand a confrontation with the West and it's allies. The US and NATO is on the move to take full control of the entire Middle East. It is in Syria and Iran that the US and NATO are more likley to come into confrontation with Russia, with China hanging back to let Russia do the heavy lifting to resist the NATO expansion from total control of the Middle East to taking central Asia next. When NATO moves on Central Asia, then China will step up and take notice. That is when the alarm bells go off for China. Iran will be the last NATO conquest before they move seriously to take the Central Asian and Caucuses states. China will resist these take over by either proxy war or direct military involvment. Russia too will engage any force attempting to take these areas with military force. The NATO sponsered Georgian invasion of South Ossetia was a model for this. Russia reacted with direct Russia military attacks to defeat this little move by NATO. The same would hold true for China should NATO go after a bordering central Asian republic.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:39 | 3134922 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

my goddam windshield wipers didn't work yesterday morning they were frozen to my windshield, delayed me by 20 minutes.

Nothing in life moves to the beat you're drumming.

but I can dig it.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 23:10 | 3134989 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Which is really stupid. If NATO was intelligent, they would fuel tensions between Russia and China so they annihilate each other.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:40 | 3134925 oak
oak's picture

abe should get his head examined.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:48 | 3134947 Orly
Orly's picture

Abe will likely wisely use this opportunity of having the US at his back and a weakly military China to slosh around some of those trillions of yen the Japanese are about to print.

Problem is the man has a nervous stomach and seems to believe his own press.  As long as he doesn't get out of hand with the rhetoric and shows some respect to the behemoth across the Sea of Japan, he will be okay.

If he starts to get out-of-control, it may be big enough to have him publicly humiliated, a la Petreus or even have him suicided.  He needs to be careful but as long as he is, the MIC and the Japanese economy will be the better off for it.


Tue, 01/08/2013 - 23:20 | 3135019 oak
oak's picture

1. abe is testing the us to get rid of the us influnce.

2. he would like to visit usa in 01-13, however, usa told him "no". the reson was gaven that white house will be very busy. that tells about usa attitude.

3. why china needs war? they do not. japan does not need a war either.

4. all the noises from china and japan are getting the us attention for muti-purpose and testing the will of usa.

5. I believe that usa is wise enough to know about all of those.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 23:35 | 3135041 Orly
Orly's picture

Yes, it is mere theatre for everyone.  No one realy wants war but Abe has rattled the sabre, so to speak, in his re-election campaign and now he has to make good with his words.

He can easily tell the Japanese people that he is a strong nationalist and show the Chinese that he "means business."  It will be all well and good for the evening papers but in reality, everyone knows it is for show.

The US probably doesn't take him seriously because he is single-handedly messing up the Fed's currency plans in Asia, though without anything concrete to peddle, Abe's yen weakness could be short-lived.

Abe is walking on eggshells and rightly so.  He has promised 2%- no, wait, 4% - oh, okay, 2% inflation, to rid the Japanese of the scourge of economics- deflation.  With that, he will usher in an era of expanding costs to fuel the Japanese economy as borrowing costs get steeper as inflation rises.  It is a mess and it is possible that the US doesn't think he will last long as PM.

It seems last time he was in office, the US did everything they could to ridicule him in the MSM, much as I suppose they are doing today.    This is why they report on his every mis-step, as with his inflation targets.  So, Abe is not really testing the US will toward Japan but the military-industrial complex will be more than happy to build more sabres for him to rattle around Asia.


Tue, 01/08/2013 - 23:49 | 3135074 oak
oak's picture

hi, orly, you are good.

yes, "the US doesn't think he will last long as PM." probably he could only last for less than a year.

what abe is doing, simply let usa toridicule him, as you said

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 00:21 | 3135136 chump666
chump666's picture

Right now, the YEN is bid, now this could be on repatriation flows on geopolitical tensions (recent Japan F1 fly over disputed islands, China ship entering waters a few days ago).  War will have a massive effect here and the YEN will go super bid, but again if he issues bonds too the Japanese at awesome yields to fund a military complex or patriotic war with China, he won't beat deflation, Japan will go into a hyper inflated state with oil inflation being the main cause. 

Although billions of YEN pouring back into the country could offset soring inflation

What is dangerous about Abe and Japan is it could be a pre-curser to Marc Faber's "they go to war, when all else fails" historic cycle of stupidity. 

And all this talk about trillion dollar coins and the such...

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 01:27 | 3135191 Orly
Orly's picture

"And all this talk about trillion dollar coins and the such..."

Ain't that just about the most ridiculous thing in the world?  Hey, I know, why don't we just pretend we have a trillion-dollar coin?  Same difference, right?

Just dumb.

Anyways, the price action in the USDJPY has been strange lately.  It broke the sharp up-trend channel yesterday and commenced to sell off until the Asia session.  Nikkei again off the roof but the pair is definitely stalling at these levels; Euro just sitting there, waiting- ominously...

The crosses are sinking fast but it won't be until three weeks for the BoJ to come out and announce what we already know (in re: bond purchases, etc...), then the Fed.  Hmmm...

Already formed on the Weekly is a very strong bearish harmonic pattern but it is tough to trade them off of Weeklies because the candle can still move a big way.  The pattern is there, though, so it will give you some cause for pause.

It seems that if Abe has anything at all left in his tank he'd better pull it now.  He tried it late this afternoon, New York time, and the announcement (no news...just reiteration...) did nothing to spur the yen pairs higher.  Lots of yen shorts are going to bail on this one and start taking big profits.  That's my bet.


But...what I love about these markets:

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 01:48 | 3135356 chump666
chump666's picture

“It’s the start of the year; give it few more days and then we will see Japan coming back to buy USD/JPY again. They will buy the dollar for inputs, for oil, and for energy resources. In addition to that, investments will come back as Japanese investors will look to buy treasuries, equities, and companies,”

From your link and I rest my case.  If Abe goes ape on China, JPY will fly upward.  Again, he'll have to force the Japanese savers to buy up bonds.  Just a theory on the war bond/cycle thing...

But the DXY has been gently bid for the last 6mths, I'd also say oilers out of China and the Chinese demand for USD is growing.  A war would send it parabolic.  A very strange and disconnected market, HFTs on equities, leveraged longs while the USD is bid.



Wed, 01/09/2013 - 03:58 | 3135550 Element
Element's picture

Good analysis, but I think you'll find it's inflation that's the scourge of the economy from the perspective of most people. ;)

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 23:55 | 3135088 patb
patb's picture

China could always use a war,  it's convenient and helps focus the people.


All countries like wars.


Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:46 | 3134945 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Maybe Japan will have to explore a War Scenario with Fitch soon.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 23:02 | 3134954 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

background:  truman never wanted to drop a bomb on japan to end the war. what his goal was, was that the emperor 'god-diety' would come to his senses, and volunteer to surrender... but that never happened-- it couldn't, period!

truman new that the ussr was just weeks away from invading japan and laying claim to the east-southeast seas and the south china seas in asian pacific being an arbitrary ally to china.

truman actually only wanted one bomb dropped, but because of the massive military arsenal that the ussr was/could acquire in nagasaki and hiroshima it was decided he drop two-- quickly calling and end to the war and preventing the ussr from making japan their war spoil-trophy, and a indiscriminate? territory. 

so, there you have it... and twenty years later japan was a full pledged member of the exclusive group, known as  trilateralist'! 

ref: 'full text of ma's speech on east china sea initiative guidelines'

thankyou tyler

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 04:10 | 3135559 Element
Element's picture

Problem is earle the Russians didn't have the forces in place, the fleet, or the logistics supply to do that, plus the USAF and navy were incredibly formidable, and both were seriously exploding in numbers and also quality, at that time. Plus the air force had already destroyed almost all of the major industrial cities and ports in Japan.  No way the Russians were going to waltz into that without a challenge they could not beat.

No way the Russians were in any serious position to stake a late-claim on the mainland Japan and surround marine territories. They had a legitimate stake to Sakhalin dating prior to the 1905 war when mutual shared control was the standing arrangement. The Russians were more of a flanking distraction, resuming their prior control over Sakhalin, so that the Japs felt beset on all sides, and unable to respond.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 22:59 | 3134966 H E D G E H O G
H E D G E H O G's picture

I think WE need to hear more on the fucking fact that WE pay CHINA enough DEBT INTEREST each and evey month that they fund 100% of their military budget on what the USA pays them! WHAT A FUCKING JOKE THIS GOVERNMENT AND THE CLOWNS RUNNING IT INTO THE GROUND HAVE BECOME.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 23:03 | 3134972 g3h
g3h's picture

You don't have a good idea about the U. S. debt and the effect of the Chinese holding.

We are getting a good deal out of it.  We are not paying much in interest.   There isn't much China can do about its holding of the U. S. debt.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 23:18 | 3135014 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

perhaps and perhaps not?

china only holds u.s. paper/debt because of america's hegemonic superiority in order to balance trade, period. as you've seen lately, the chinese debt has decreased because of china trade imbalance depreciating in recent years. but, once china overtakes the u.s. as the world's currency of choice/trade... perhaps as early as 2015, it will be the u.s. that will be forced to buy china's debt/paper!

china makes shit off the paper, but uses it in swaps to buy tangibles. it's a two way street now for the u.s., but fast becoming a one way street for china only.


Tue, 01/08/2013 - 23:07 | 3134969 g3h
g3h's picture

Geez, Japan's millitary expansion is now considered a peaceful act, for self defense and aiming at China only?  Which enemy did we defeat in WW2?


Doubt China will use force to take Taiwan in the near future.  Suppose it does.  Who would think Japan can intervene to stop China?  True China's millary is weak, and will remain weak for another decade.  But seriously can Japan change that course?

Seems to me another ploy to drag the U. S. into a war (whether we will defend Taiwan has nothing to do with Japan's action.)

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 04:20 | 3135563 Element
Element's picture

Taiwan is hardly a push-over, it has potentially devastating anti-ship mobile missile units that can clobber any attacking amphibious PLAAN naval force. And para-troops would be very difficult to resupply, even if they could make it there, which clearly they can't. So submarine infiltration using special-ops would be the the preferred path to starting hostilities with Taiwan, but that takes time. And you can bet those waters are full of permanent hydrophone arrays triangulating every fish-fart. ;)

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 23:16 | 3135006 yogibear
yogibear's picture

When all economic Keysian nonsense fails we go to war.

A repeat?



Currency wars - 2012



Tue, 01/08/2013 - 23:19 | 3135017 PGR88
PGR88's picture

There is little chance that China will invade Taiwan.  >10% of Taiwan's population lives in China.  Without Chinese trade and now tourism, the Taiwanese economy would crumble.  Nearly all Taiwanese consider themselves at least culturally Chinese, and most are not afraid of Mainland China.

In sum, China has no need to invade

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 23:19 | 3135018 hannah
hannah's picture

japan already nuked is called quantitative easing. china just needs to wait them out.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 04:27 | 3135577 Element
Element's picture

China effectively did the same though, and absent European or US growth it's locked into regional stagnation unless they keep spending to pretend 8% GDP is viable or realistic. If they don't (they already predict 8% is unsustainable) then GDP will grind-lower, and lower into 2014-2015. So it's obvious China will likewise keep spending to maintain stabeeleetee and smooth the bumps. 

Interestingly, Japan's stimulus is almost the same proportion of nominal GDP as that China committed to stimulus spending in Sept 2012.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 23:25 | 3135025 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

I am surprised and appalled not to see a scenario including Godzilla in it.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 23:40 | 3135048 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

OK. You know those Roswell stories? They're fake.

But, Godzilla and Mothra are real.

At the right time, we will release them on the Chicoms.

Fukoshima was in reality done to re-charge Godzilla and Mothra, but there was an accident.

We control them with collars we put on their necks.

Let's see how long it takes this one to get back around.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 00:08 | 3135108 W74
W74's picture

Speaking of collars around necks, you should check out a series called Dino Riders.  Absolutely amazing.  Or porn.  Or whatever.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 23:46 | 3135061 Blazed
Blazed's picture

Nothing to explore, it will be a Kobayashi Maru scenario.

Tue, 01/08/2013 - 23:57 | 3135092 secret_sam
secret_sam's picture

Yeah, man, if there's a cheat code, the USians will win it.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 00:21 | 3135133 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Super Bullish.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 00:52 | 3135245 patb
patb's picture

japanese government deficit is running just shy of 10% of GDP.  if they increase spending by 1% to

add military spending, they will be at 11%.


worse, 50% of their revenues comes from bond sales and 20% of Japanese expenses are interest payments.


"the largely symbolic 100 billion yen increase in defense spending announced on Jan. 8 will serve to fund research into a new radar system and to cover fuel and other maintenance costs for early-warning aircraft. But this is only the first step, and there could be many more to come. The defense budget for FY2012 ending in March was just 4.69 trillion yen (US$61 billion), "


the budget is 90 trillion in yen spending.

21 trillion in interest at damn near zero percent.

26 trillion is social security for the elderly, 

16 trillion is for local government.

1.5 trillion is going to cleanup post fukushima.

23 trillion is basic government.  (Education, R&D, Defense, public works, misc.).

To increase spending on defense by 1 trillion, they need to either increase borrowing or cut education or public works.  Politically they can't cut public works,  so, it's borrowing.


if the chinese were to drive up interest rates in japan 1 % the deficit starts to double

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 04:32 | 3135584 Element
Element's picture

Serious submarine upgrades and a new class of multirole SSGs will be next, plus F-35A and new long-range low-observable cruise weapons for both.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 01:42 | 3135349 AgAu_man
AgAu_man's picture

A real war is very unlikely and unnecessary for both.
The only 'victor' would be US, i.e. The Fed.
Japan would be front-running for the US.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 02:09 | 3135398 JamesBond
JamesBond's picture

just left tokyo.  back in germany for 6 months.

fuck -  i miss it already....


Wed, 01/09/2013 - 02:40 | 3135454 Element
Element's picture

RT reported yesterday that Japan had summoned the Chinese ambassador to transmit official complaints about Chinese ships infringing on Japanese maritime territory.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 02:44 | 3135460 lmile61
lmile61's picture

can not say anything!!!!magento development

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 03:56 | 3135549 champan250
champan250's picture

apparently the author can not tell East or West from a map. Ishigaki and Miyako Islands are EAST of Taiwan

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 06:52 | 3135706 BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

Japan Explores War Scenarios with China and expands military spending for adult diapers.
I don't know who they think would fill the boots, but from my perspective, this country of octogenerians couldn't fight Zimbabwe.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 07:09 | 3135718 Joe A
Joe A's picture

Long Potassium Iodine and buy some physical ones for yourself and family.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 07:40 | 3135737 BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

Potassium Iodide is only available in Japan from the government.
I had to import my own after Fukushima.
Something very strange about that.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 11:37 | 3136496 Joe A
Joe A's picture

I am glad you got some. Stay safe.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 09:10 | 3135852 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I think Japan should be a lot more worried about itself than Taiwan.  China's goal, for the moment, is most likely a non-territorial bloodletting with those useless islands as the trigger.  They want to isolate and engage Japanese military forces only.  China wants to flex and send a message to the world and its people.  They don't want the US involved.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 09:17 | 3135874 Random
Random's picture

China, Japan and US are all owned by the same people so the discussion about what they'll do is moot. They will do what they masters want. Too much reading into something that is entirely irrelevant.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 10:54 | 3136246 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Japan has nuclear weapons, just not fully operational. I've read estimates that it would take @ 2 hours to make them operational. And if anyone thinks that isn't ever going to happen because the Japanese were so traumatized by Nagasaki & Hiroshima, they're engaging in fantasy

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 14:24 | 3137183 Lin S
Lin S's picture

Can someone please explain to me two things:

1. If China is acquiring gold in such large amounts, why is it they are selling gold Pandas on the world market?

2. Can western buyers of gold Pandas trust that they are, in fact, really pure gold?

Please advise...


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