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2013 - Macro Deja Deja Vu

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Ever feel like we have been here before? Overwhelmed by the chatter that this time is different and the 'recovery' is self-sustaining? Join the crowd (and Goldman). Their MAP indicator - which tracks both absolute (up/down) and relative (beat/miss) moves in macro-economic data - is once again at a level that in the last two years has perfectly marked the tipping point in expectations and absolute macro performance. While the markets (in their infinite wisdom) appear convinced - just as they were in 2007 - perhaps 4 weeks in a row of weakening claims and a gross downward revision of Philly Fed is a glimpse that it really is no different this time.

 

 

Chart: Goldman Sachs

 


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Thu, 01/10/2013 - 15:42 | Link to Comment AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

We're about to break higher now... hope some got on board the dip this morning. All these negative stories won't stop the run... just BTFD.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 16:00 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Wondering HOW we can get positive macro news. US employment is stalled, Euro unemployment is skyrocketing (eg Greece) and US is raising taxes with Obamacare and the payroll deduction.

Only Democrats would raise taxes with the economy like a punch drunk fighter wobbling in the corner of the ring.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/01/10/opa-housing-jobless-c...

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 16:05 | Link to Comment AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

This has moved "beyond reality" for some time now. If anything, ZH has illustrated it well. This is all financial engineering.. look how they turned shitty 3rd Q "earnings" around and dragged us higher into yr end. Just buy.. because they don't let ANYTHING go down.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 17:59 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Yep 5 years and counting

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 15:44 | Link to Comment digitlman
digitlman's picture

God I hope so.  Bring on the crash.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 15:49 | Link to Comment THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

I NEED THIS TO HAPPEN.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 15:50 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Amen.  Even I'm losing a little faith.

Just crash would you.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 15:44 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

good luck shorting this fker.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 16:21 | Link to Comment SemperFord
SemperFord's picture

Exactly, they know these charts are out there so don't sell, buy some calls on the SP500

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 16:00 | Link to Comment AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Many confused as to why facts don't make sense with the market direction any more. For 4 yrs, people have wondered why market celebrates short term fixes, record #'s on food stamps. They think, "it's just gotta turn, economy is stocks" Nope. The stock market is now THE FED. BUY or get crushed. There is no part about financial markets today that are going to reflect the "truth". BTFD

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 16:10 | Link to Comment mind_imminst
mind_imminst's picture

The market is the FED. True. BTFD.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 16:17 | Link to Comment Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

I'll buy when the government gets out and the fundamentals return.  Until then, I'd rather go to Vegas than the casino formely known as the stock market.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 16:25 | Link to Comment AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

You can do whatever you like. Thankfully, it's still (for now) a free country. However, if you bought the dip this morning, you're up .70%. Profits are fun to roll into gold, or silver, or ammo... whatever. 

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 16:35 | Link to Comment PivotalTrades
PivotalTrades's picture

No confusion,,as they crush the dollar the more debt the more they crush the dollar,,so any asset presious, metal and stocks, and eventually real estate will be repriced just like the milk you buy.  its called inflation.

The only thing to avoid, all gov bond thats why the cb's are the only buyers

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 16:38 | Link to Comment AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Some call it the destruction of the free market, some call it financial engineering, some call it inflation. Whatever you choose to call it, just be sure you're LONG and not SHORT.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 15:46 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Sell Mortimer, Sell!

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 15:51 | Link to Comment vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

I wonder how unsterilized QE fits on the chart.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 15:55 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

The fuck is going on with the index's all of the sudden?  Did Ben get new ink?

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:02 | Link to Comment michiganmaven
michiganmaven's picture

no it is POMO money being put to work after the repatriation sell off from Europe....

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 15:56 | Link to Comment tango
tango's picture

You see, the Big Boys can be useful for some things like charts revealing that we are pattern repeaters to the nth degree.  Thinking right now how the "experts" are going to explain this.  My guess:  gridlock in DC.  If we only got along things would be wonderful despite bad policies, regulations, laws and actions.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 16:02 | Link to Comment kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

Servomechanisms: Programmable People

Miller: The advent of WWII was really the turning point in the automatic control field. This was especially true in the military field where the control of ships, submarines, aircraft, radar systems, etc., greatly accelerated the study, advancement, and practice of servomechanism.

[C]omparison is performed by a transducer, which is simply a device that converts energy from one form to another. Regardless of the type of variable, if the controlled output is not at its desired value, then the devise used for comparison creates an error signal which is fed to an amplifier, which in turn feeds an error-correcting device, which then drives the system to restore the variable to the desired value.

////

Replace the pertinent words with accounting, law, reward/punishment, etc. The empire has done you the favor of programming itself onto a dc chip set. The majority sets the value system setpoint to stupider, to control its children downstream, and places them on the conveyor belt. Capitalism, socialism, and communism are simply levels of decay, drop in orbit. There are many ways to adjust the system, but, basically, you can adjust efficiency of the delay circuitry for speed, effectiveness of the value system at the setpoint for direction, or starve it into a black hole short.

Reward and punishment is the lowest form of regulation. Curiosity is one step up, and employing gravity is another. You can set your watch/timer by the behavior of the manufactured majority. The Fed prints on the expectation that the majority will extort sufficient return from the minority, to float, until it can’t.

When peer pressure extortion fails, the empire rolls out early childhood ‘education’ and enacts laws based upon outlier behavior on the back end, normalizing arbitrary, capricious, and malicious behavior over time. Stupider becomes stupider. In this case, it’s chasing PLC problems into monetization, in a positive feedback loop, returning an out-of-control fixed cost structure. It’s one thing to have your laptop operating system lock up, another, to have nuclear meltdown.

So, they enact laws to prohibit guns in a collapsing economy, and everyone runs out and buys guns. Whether it’s a DreamLiner or a NightmareLiner depends upon your incestual make-work perspective. Agency pays itself to pay itself, with ever-increasing obscurity.

What is your child’s reference? Is the empire the dependent or independent variable in your life? How do you traverse a black hole?

 

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 16:16 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Thanks, I was wondering why the world seems insane and nothing makes sense.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 16:02 | Link to Comment 905ozs
905ozs's picture

If a Rothschild Inc creature craps, you'll notice, always.
When the toilet is flushed... the Corrilus Effect...spinning clockwise...

...those in the Northern Hemisphere should duck :), but seriously.

From a warm beach on the South African coast...:)

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 16:04 | Link to Comment Caracalla
Caracalla's picture

This afternoon may be the last great opportunity to get short or cash in some profits.  Don't let it go to waste.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 16:20 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Absolute stupid insanity out there.

At least Gold is up 1.25% along with the cotton candy FED equities.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 16:26 | Link to Comment SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Bernankie w/ SP @ 1471,   "Fuk you ZH, bwhaahahahahahahaahahaha!"

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 16:43 | Link to Comment s2man
s2man's picture

This time IS different!  See?  The line is a darker blue.  Next question...

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 19:14 | Link to Comment ReptilianSlaveMaster
ReptilianSlaveMaster's picture

I'm buying more calls on the SPY - impossible to lose when you buy this market

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