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The World In 2030

Tyler Durden's picture


Authored by Joseph S. Nye, originally posted at Project Syndicate,

What will the world look like two decades from now? Obviously, nobody knows, but some things are more likely than others. Companies and governments have to make informed guesses, because some of their investments today will last longer than 20 years. In December, the United States National Intelligence Council (NIC) published its guess: Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds.

The NIC foresees a transformed world, in which “no country – whether the US, China, or any other large country – will be a hegemonic power.” This reflects four “megatrends”:

[These trends exist today, but during the next 15-20 years they will deepen and become more intertwined, producing a qualitatively different world. For example, the hundreds of millions of entrants into the middle classes throughout all regions of the world create the possibility of a global “citizenry” with a positive effect on the global economy and world politics. Equally, absent better management and technologies, growing resource constraints could limit further development, causing the world to stall its engines.]


1. Individual Empowerment and the growth of a global middle class;


2. Diffusion of Power from states to informal networks and coalitions;


3. Demographic changes, owing to urbanization, migration, and aging;


4. Increased demand for food, water, and energy.


Each trend is changing the world and “largely reversing the historic rise of the West since 1750, restoring Asia’s weight in the global economy, and ushering in a new era of ‘democratization’ at the international and domestic level.” The US will remain “first among equals” in hard and soft power, but “the ‘unipolar moment’ is over.”

It is never safe, however, to project the future just by extrapolating current trends. Surprise is inevitable, so the NIC also identifies what it calls “game-changers,” or outcomes that could drive the major trends off course in surprising ways.

First among such sources of uncertainty is the global economy: will volatility and imbalances lead to collapse, or will greater multipolarity underpin greater resilience? Similarly, will governments and institutions be able to adapt fast enough to harness change, or will they be overwhelmed by it?

Moreover, while interstate conflict has been declining, intrastate conflict driven by youthful populations, identity politics, and scarce resources will continue to plague some regions like the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa. And that leads to yet another potentially game-changing issue: whether regional instability remains contained or fuels global insecurity.

Then there is a set of questions concerning the impact of new technologies. Will they exacerbate conflict, or will they be developed and widely accessible in time to solve the problems caused by a growing population, rapid urbanization, and climate change?

The final game-changing issue is America’s future role. In the NIC’s view, the multi-faceted nature of US power suggests that even as China overtakes America economically – perhaps as early as the 2020’s – the US will most likely maintain global leadership alongside other great powers in 2030. “The potential for an overstretched US facing increased demands,” the NIC argues, “is greater than the risk of the US being replaced as the world’s preeminent political leader.”

Is this good or bad for the world? In the NIC’s view, “a collapse or sudden retreat of US power would most likely result in an extended period of global anarchy,” with “no stable international system and no leading power to replace the US.”

The NIC discussed earlier drafts of its report with intellectuals and officials in 20 countries, and reports that none of the world’s emerging powers has a revisionist view of international order along the lines of Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, or the Soviet Union. But these countries’ relations with the US are ambiguous. They benefit from the US-led world order, but are often irritated by American slights and unilateralism. One attraction of a multipolar world is less US dominance; but the only thing worse than a US-supported international order would be no order at all.

The question of America’s role in helping to produce a more benign world in 2030 has important implications for President Barack Obama as he approaches his second term. The world faces a new set of transnational challenges, including climate change, transnational terrorism, cyber insecurity, and pandemics. All of these issues require cooperation to resolve.

Obama’s 2010 National Security Strategy argues that the US must think of power as positive-sum, not just zero-sum. In other words, there may be times when a more powerful China is good for the US (and for the world). For example, the US should be eager to see China increase its ability to control its world-leading greenhouse-gas emissions.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has referred to the Obama administration’s foreign policy as being based on “smart power,” which combines hard and soft power resources, and she argues that we should not talk about “multipolarity,” but about “multi-partnerships.” Likewise, the NIC report suggests that Americans must learn better how to exercise power with as well as over other states.

To be sure, on issues arising from interstate military relations, understanding how to form alliances and balance power will remain crucial. But the best military arrangements will do little to solve many of the world’s new transnational problems, which jeopardize the security of millions of people at least as much as traditional military threats do. Leadership on such issues will require cooperation, institutions, and the creation of public goods from which all can benefit and none can be excluded.

The NIC report rightly concludes that there is no predetermined answer to what the world will look like in 2030. Whether the future holds benign or malign scenarios depends in part on the policies that we adopt today.

The upper chart below shows US share of real global GDP under four 'alternate' scenarios. The lower chart illustrates patterns in the shift in global economic clout across regions (measured in terms of regions’/countries’ share of global GDP) in 2010 and in our four scenarios for 2030. The four scenarios are:

  • Stalled Engines–a scenario in which the US and Europe turn inward and globalization stalls.
  • Fusion–a world in which the US and China cooperate, leading to worldwide cooperation on global challenges.
  • Gini-Out-of-the-Bottle–a world in which economic inequalities dominate.
  • Nonstate World–a scenario in which nonstate actors take the lead in solving global challenges.




GlobalTrends_2030 by xxyyxxyy123123


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Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:27 | 3142470 Irelevant
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Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:45 | 3142518 Daily Bail
Daily Bail's picture

SIGN IT NOW! - New White House Petition To Audit U.S. Gold Supply

Someone posted a link to this earlier today here at ZH and I turned it into a story.  If we can get Matt Drudge to pick it up (he does own gold), we'll get the 25,000 signatures in a few hours.

Thank you.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:46 | 3142541 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

I don't know what the world will look like in 2030 but I am fairly certain this is what my son will look like.

Have a nice day. :-)

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 19:06 | 3142600 macholatte
macholatte's picture



Does this National Intelligence Council have any kind of track record that would justify spending the time to read their latest work product?



Thu, 01/10/2013 - 19:26 | 3142650 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture


Does this National Intelligence Council have any kind of track record that would justify spending the time to read their latest work product?

USNIC: Useless Shit, Nothing Indicating Credibility

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 19:39 | 3142666 knukles
knukles's picture

I was thinking more like glow in the dark glassine parking lots and desertification devoid of most life excepting cockroaches, molds and mutants.

Mother Earth will still be here, having rid herself of the pestilence currently referred to as humanity and all its toxic byproducts with notable emphasis on the deprecation of ego, the inequities of the selfish and tyranny of evil men...
Just a guess considering the noble actions of Our Glorious leaders and March of Narcissism.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:38 | 3142734 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture


"To be sure, on issues arising from interstate military relations, understanding how to form alliances and balance power will remain crucial... Leadership on such issues will require cooperation, institutions, and the creation of public goods from which all can benefit and none can be excluded."

"Nonstate World–a scenario in which nonstate actors take the lead in solving global challenges."

*scratches head*..."nonstate actors"...I wonder if Henry 'Captain America' Kissinger knows of any nonstate actors who might be prepared to generously take the lead in solving global challenges? You know, someone who might be persuaded to play, oh, say, Global Monarchical Ruler...I'd sure hate to be in their shoes!

*Light-Bulb Moment*...hey, what say we get those nice people at the UN down here and see if they can't come up with a plan to help us out. Sure! They're friends with other nice cats at the IMF, World Bank, CFR, Club of Rome, Trilateral Commission and if my memory serves me correctly, they've even got this Sustainable Development-Thingy happening already. Policing force, money, treaties, planning....hey, this just might all work out...phew, for a minute there I thought we were screwed!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 00:59 | 3143452 trav777
trav777's picture

the fuckin oil supply ain't there to power these rosy scenarios of zillions of entrants into the middle class happily motoring to suburban homes just like idiot americans

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 02:26 | 3143515 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

But..but, but, the pretty picture of all that light tight oil... They wouldn't lie to us would they?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 07:29 | 3143677 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Maybe they're compartively speaking. If all the nations of the world have a lower standard of living for their middle class, maybe they're saying the nations with a projected higher middle class will have a larger amount or percentage of people living those lower, but still "middle class" living standards.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:14 | 3142781 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

This report should have been called Gullibility Test 2030: Imaginary Worlds (for X-BOX®, Playstation®, and Wii®). It's just too ridiculous to be taken seriously. The bewildering array of multi-dimensional wrongness displayed in its assumptions and conclusions makes one wonder if its production was outsourced to the writing staff of

It is truly a stunning accomplishment in full-spectrum absurdity.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 19:29 | 3142656 JR
JR's picture


If the target is a worldwide middle class, it will be Obama’s definition of a middle class. A worldwide employee class for the globalists is really what it is.

The current Chairman of the National Intelligence Council is Christopher A. Kojm, term of office July 6, 2009 - present, and Principal Deputy is Stephen Kaplan, 2007-present both currently serving under Barack Obama. They identify their NIC mission as “leading intelligence integration.”

 The NIC website in its Who We Are:

“The National Intelligence Council supports the Director of National Intelligence in his role as head of the Intelligence Community (IC) and is the IC’s center for long-term strategic analysis

“ Since its establishment in 1979, the NIC has served as a bridge between the intelligence and policy communities, a source of deep substantive expertise on intelligence issues, and a facilitator of Intelligence Community collaboration and outreach.

“The NIC’s National Intelligence Officersdrawn from government, academia, and the private sector—are the Intelligence Community’s senior experts on a range of regional and functional issues.”

The Vigilant Citizen this week in its article entitled “The National Intelligence Council Predicts a Very Transhuman Future by 2030 reports:

“The latest NIC report…discusses several issues such as the decline of the role of the United States as a global policeman and the rise of non-state actors in world politics. It also mentions another key issue: A fast-paced race towards transhumanism.

“’Human Augmentation’ is indeed considered a key issue in the next 15 years as new technologies will allow all kinds of modifications ‘ranging from implants and prosthetics to powered exoskeletons, human augmentation enhancing innate human abilities’. These augmentations would be used on soldiers, workers and anyone that can afford them, giving them ‘super-human’ powers and capabilities, whether it be on a physical or a mental level.”

If this doesn’t scare you to death, what will?

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 19:43 | 3142684 knukles
knukles's picture

Global 1% is $20,000.

Yep.  On a global basis, the upper 1% of wage earners is approximately $20,000, gross unadjusted income. 

So, for all your uber-liberal friends who preach about taxing the piss out of the rich and integrating everything on a global basis, let them know they're overdue for some serious confiscation.

Nope, they'll tell you it ain't true or ignore reality... as Uber-Liberals and Neo-Cons are want to do.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:17 | 3142793 JR
JR's picture

Now that's information you can believe in. Thanks, knukles!

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:37 | 3142857 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

There aren't even enough resources to support the world's existing middle class for more than a few more years. To suggest that hundreds of millions more people will be joining the ranks of the middle class defies credibility.

The chart predicting the increase in US shale oil production appears to be based on the assumption that Monsanto will soon be successful in its efforts to genetically engineer unicorns with hardened, rotating horns which burrow through the shale and then shit light sweet crude into a pipeline.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:44 | 3142887 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Define 'Middle Class' in your mind?

I can define a Middle Class with a population number and standard of living which is 100% sustainable...but you won't like it.

You need to re-define your parameters to suit their language!

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 21:46 | 3143076 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture


Thu, 01/10/2013 - 22:58 | 3143270 malek
malek's picture

To be in the global top 1% you need to earn $20,000 gross annually?
Just take the US median household income, their headcount and how many these US households embody as a share of world population, plus that half of those US household members make more than the median and you see it can't be right before even counting in a single person living outside the US.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 22:19 | 3143181 lewy14
lewy14's picture

Sorry you don't like transhumanism but how are you going to prevent it?

Laws? Prosecutions? War on implants?

The more it's regulated the more the über class keep all the goodies to themselves. (If you haven't noticed, laws and regulations don't apply to them.)

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 00:54 | 3143449 Tsukato
Tsukato's picture

How can anyone make 20 year forecasts without factoring in nanotechnology and 3-d printing for the masses? Nobody has a clue of what even 5 years later will look like. Who's paying these people?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 03:13 | 3143556 lewy14
lewy14's picture

Maybe they know something we don't. Maybe the mother of all Luddite campaigns is around the corner. Future is too much for the PTB so they'll cancel it.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:48 | 3142547 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Meanwhile the local 911 office is busy formulating... I kid you not... a FIFTY YEAR PLAN!

These fucksticks can't figure out how to get through the day, let alone tomorrow, but hey, don't let that stop them from wasting who knows how much wealth in the process.

I mean, it's not like we can't afford it, right???

The did a recent remodel which immediately caught fire as it the new wiring job was fubar. TADA!

I got a good laugh watching all of the fire trucks save their HQ.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:50 | 3142560 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Thank you for this.  It made me laugh.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:20 | 3142808 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

did they call 911?

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:42 | 3142530 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Europe will become just a tourist land
Russia and Asia will be where profits are
Us will become Europe
Africa will alwAys be young since they die in wars

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:55 | 3142910 centerline
centerline's picture

Concept of "profits" is what might wind up redefined.  Plus, cultural differences will take more time to shift than anyone wants to admit.  Think about what would be required to bring about a big black/white group hug in Atlanta.  lol.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:46 | 3142537 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

Would have been easier to just watch Roadwarrior again

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:12 | 3142778 Hobbleknee
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Thu, 01/10/2013 - 22:27 | 3143201 bobthehorse
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In 2030?

I'm expecting a communist revolution.

The poor will be richer.

And the rich will much poorer.

The internet changed everything.

Government will be extremely powerful.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:27 | 3142472 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

2030 - Rampant cancer and heart disease worldwide from ongoing Fukushima radiation, with many more NPP's having failed. Skyrocteting Infant Mortality Rates. Very high percentages of babies that are born will be deformed. Non-existent health care for any of them. The uber-wealthy all living in Patagonia, living out their last years surrounded by private armies.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:35 | 3142508 kliguy38
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Terrible Timmy will begin his reign as the most loved dictator regaded as the savior of business by instituting the 217th bank bailout proclamation and UberQE declaring that NO gold will be allowed on United States soil.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:49 | 3142901 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Fortunately, by the time Terrible Timmy begins his dictatorial reign, the extent of what can be considered United States soil will consist solely of the area contained within the I-495 Beltway Moat and a rather tenuous claim to the Reagan-Corzine Islands (a.k.a. the Diaoyu Islands, a.k.a. the Senkaku Islands).

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:38 | 3142517 donsluck
donsluck's picture

Dear Not, +1 for moxie!

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 19:44 | 3142690 Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

On the bright side the radiation should reduce the birth rate.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 01:01 | 3143455 trav777
trav777's picture

...apparently another idiot who didn't study Chernobyl dead zone

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:32 | 3142473 francis_sawyer
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This is a publication from the "National Intelligence Council"


Act accordingly


Christopher A. Kojm is chairman of the United States National Intelligence Council.[1]


Kojm received an AB from Harvard College in 1977 and an MA from the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University in 1979.[1][2] From 1979 to 1984 he was a senior editor at the Foreign Policy Association in New York City.[2][1]

From 1984 to 1998 he was a staff member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee under Lee H. Hamilton, the ranking member, then chairman of the committee.[2][1]

From 1998 to 2003, Kojm was Deputy Assistant Secretary for Intelligence Policy and Coordination in the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research.[2] He then served as Deputy Director of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, later serving as president of the 9/11 Public Discourse Project.[2]

Between 2004 and 2006, he was a Visiting Professor at his alma mater, the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.[2] In 2006, he was a senior adviser to the Iraq Study Group.[2][1] In 2007, he became a faculty member of the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University.[2][1]

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 19:10 | 3142605 macholatte
macholatte's picture


A Progressive Pedigree if ever there was one.  Only thing missing is a relationship with the Center for American Progress or other such Soros-Clinton Machine group.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 19:35 | 3142671 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The only thing I got out of this report [besides an understanding who was responsible for the publication], is that supposedly all the hot young tail will be in Afghanistan, Yemen, & sub Sahara Africa...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 00:18 | 3143405 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

hmm, that sounds like the cloven hooves varietal. . .

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:28 | 3142474 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Lo and Behold according to Krugman the super duper Neo Keynesian the debt nightmare is solved (govt debt not banksta debt) :

KRUGMAN: The Chart That Proves The Debt Problem Is "Mostly Solved" - Business Insider

As they say : Popcorn all around may the great debate now begin. Trillion dollar coins and trillion dollar spending cuts! 

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:50 | 3142558 LeisureSmith
LeisureSmith's picture

While Krugman is esposing the benfits of an alchemy based economic model, i say why not take the next step and just go with the homeopathy baced economic model?  You know, to gain recognition and praise among his peers.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 19:25 | 3142647 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Hey - maybe he's actually on to something!

The X axis on the graph is zero, right?

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:28 | 3142479 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

In the year 2525 if man and woman can survive will ZeroHedge be alive

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:47 | 3142546 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Yes, sort of.  But by then there will have been splitting of ZeroHedge into two factions: ZeroHedgeRs and ZeroHedgIEs.

Bloody wars will be fought over who is the truest of true ZH believers.

I promise you this. At any given time in the future, human nature will still exist and it will not have changed.

And why should it?  Human nature is fucking awesome!  Sure there are bad apples, but humans have climbed to the top of the motherfucking food chain!  We kicked the ass of all challengers to be King of the planet.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:18 | 3142799 The Joker
The Joker's picture

Top of the food chain?  Next time I come face to face with a mountain lion I'll have to remember that.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 22:11 | 3143157 Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

Valid point but that was why man 'invented' the 7.62 X 51....... For that and other situations when your life and/or freedom is at risk.

308 Winchester ... Accept no substitutesTM

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:34 | 3142851 The Joker
The Joker's picture

Top of the food chain?  Next time I come face to face with a mountain lion I'll have to remember that.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 02:10 | 3143505 joego1
joego1's picture

Just more food for glow in the dark cockroaches in the end.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:29 | 3142482 blabam
blabam's picture

2. Diffusion of Power from states to informal networks and coalitions;

That would be nice. 

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:48 | 3142549 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Yeah, I have no doubt those that hold all the power are going to willingly and peacefully just let it be diffused away from them.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 04:05 | 3143582 laboratorymike
laboratorymike's picture

It may happen if it plays out like it did with Tiananmen Square. That is, a government reaches "peak taxes" and realizes that the tax base would rather die than pay any more taxes. It doesn't mean freedom, necessarily. It's more like the farmer realizing that his livestock will produce more milk and meat if allowed more pasture space.

I recently heard it said this way: Free range is not the same as freedom.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 19:52 | 3142712 Helix6
Helix6's picture

Dream on

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 01:55 | 3143493 joego1
joego1's picture

That's it! If we just had a large enough diffuser we could kick some global asses!

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:29 | 3142484 tallen
tallen's picture

Hopefully by then Ben Bernanke will be 6ft under at least along with this system of crony-capitalism.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:29 | 3142485 ZDRuX
ZDRuX's picture

So this US funded study found that if the U.S. ends its policing of the world, shit will get out of hand, anarchy will rise and we'll all be forced to watch reruns of Obama documentaries?!.. shit

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:39 | 3142520 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

More like a bombed out wasteland , with bleached skelatal remains scatterd throughout.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:57 | 3142920 centerline
centerline's picture

Hunger games.  What zone are you in?

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:33 | 3142497 LeisureSmith
LeisureSmith's picture

Globalism is always positive. Roger that. Learning new shit every day.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:34 | 3142499 surf0766
surf0766's picture

2013's most overused word .. "megatrends"  what horseshit

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:58 | 3142926 centerline
centerline's picture

nah. overused - yeah.  misunderstood - bingo.  This is the mother of all supercycles (to put it in Elliot wave or Armstrong terms).

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:39 | 3142506 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Will the World still have fiat, funny, fantasy money in 2030?

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:43 | 3142533 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Does the pope poop in the woods?

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:52 | 3142566 surf0766
surf0766's picture

No but Al Roker poops everywhere.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:42 | 3142529 Tango in the Blight
Tango in the Blight's picture

People will be riding horse and trap's instead of Chevy's when the full effects of peak oil sets in.

Long stallions and mares!

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:46 | 3142538 LynRobison
LynRobison's picture

What a load of crap! Here are some predictions I could believe: monetary collapse, civil unrest, totalitarian governments, mass starvation, plagues, solar flares, extreme weather, and world war III. 

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 19:32 | 3142667 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Do not sugar coat it. Tell us what you REALLY think will happen.......

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 00:02 | 3143382 Parrotile
Parrotile's picture

To quote the Scottish chap in the UK Comedy series, "Dad'a Army" -

"We're all doomed y'know - DOOMED!!"

(and of course individually he's "dead" right - let's just hope that we as a Species manage to sort this out. On the basis of present and recent past action I personally do not hold much hope at all.)

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 01:50 | 3143489 joego1
joego1's picture

You forgot hopium enemas for the masses. It won't all be bad.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:46 | 3142542 JR
JR's picture

“The NIC foresees a transformed world, in which “no country – whether the US, China, or any other large country – will be a hegemonic power.”

Almost from the dawn of civilization the dreamers of a one world government have tried to make the dream come true by predicting that mankind would all work together to form a pact of universal cooperation.

Then, in the 18th Century, one group of people stepped out of history to form a nation state that would be governed by the people and provide its benefits to those who were governed. It has been too much for the dreamers of world government; consistently, they must knock this nation state, America, down, and place it in the great crowd of nations, all to be dissolved eventually into a single messianic unit.

Unfortunately, many of these dreamers see themselves as chosen to wear the purple, to sit in the lap of luxury and to issue the orders for all those citizens of the world.

It ain’t going to happen!

And the reason is because man was not made to carry other men on his back.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:15 | 3142785 Helix6
Helix6's picture

Not sure about whether China or some other country will become the hegemonic power, but it won't be the US.  Stealth de-facto totalitarianism has been trending here for at least a decade now.   I expect it to reach full flower well before 2030 and possibly before the next presidential election.  The ensuing rebellion, which will be savagely and brutally suppressed, will destroy the fabric of social life and mortally weaken its economy.  Rule of law will be replaced by government decree.  It's formerly vibrant entreprenurial class will be either co-opted or eliminated.  Its middle class will be subjugated by authoritarian rule, destroying its incentive to produce.  This, coupled with resource shortages and an adverse trade climate, will result in a precipitous decline in its standard of living.  Capable people will flee, or, should they express dissent, be purged.  Innovation, excepting in armaments, will cease.  The US will become a pariah among nations.

Who knows?  But I think this scenario is at least as likely as the tripe printed above.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:44 | 3142888 JR
JR's picture

A vivid and exacting picture of what will happen, Helix6, if the accelerating movement to take away Americans’ civil liberties is not stopped soon by the American people. Those now in full control of Washington are the authors of the major events of the past, the deliberate booms and busts and consequent improverishment of many Americans, the push for world socialism under globalism, the ongoing militarism and the Empire's quest for incessant war.

My prediction, however, is that the people will stop the tyranny that has plagued our country. I do not think the true spirit of America has been extinguished. The point is, this love of freedom, once tasted, is an incredibly strong characteristic of mankind and there’s never been a land where this taste has been so thoroughly experienced as in America.

After the last election, it is now indelibly stamped on the American psyche that representative government has been captured and we now are under a one-party system that represents only international bankers in their quest for financial supremacy and global socialism where oligarchy rules.

Americans are still in post-election shock but as this shock recedes and if changes are not made, they will fight.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 21:38 | 3143052 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

"And the reason is because man was not made to carry other men on his back."

Then why-oh-why-oh-why do so many men insist on making everyone do exactly that via the legalized force-monopoly of the state?

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:49 | 3142554 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

By 2030 I'm picturing Barter town.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 19:29 | 3142658 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I hope we make it that far [in terms of civilization]...

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:50 | 3142559 agent default
agent default's picture

My money is on Mad Max.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 18:53 | 3142575 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

Lush farmland in politicaly stabel areas is decreasing, population is increasing in the most food fragile places. Throw in spots with crazy religion, poverty, hunger, maby some nuclear radiation. Voila! this prediction is unreliable.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 19:35 | 3142675 chump666
chump666's picture

"Man has a limited biological capacity for change. When this capacity is overwhelmed, the capacity is in future shock." Alvin Toffler

I am just getting ready for 2013.


Thu, 01/10/2013 - 19:38 | 3142678 besnook
besnook's picture

i guess they prefer to ignore the mass capacity destruction event coming within the next 5 years that will resolve all the banking issues and much of the population issues and resource issues.


Thu, 01/10/2013 - 19:40 | 3142680 Anglo Hondo
Anglo Hondo's picture

You cannot 'resolve' climate change.  The climate is going to do what the climate does, and that is change over time.  You can prepare for the changes, whether it is warming or a little ice age.

Jeez, someone else who has been drinking the Cool-Aid.  Hint: Without a plentiful supply of plant food (carbon dioxide) - especially with a growing world population - plants die, then the animals that eat the plants die, then we die.  Ungood scenario.


Thu, 01/10/2013 - 19:43 | 3142689 koncaswatch
koncaswatch's picture

I wonder how the "for eyes only" version of this report compares to this "for public consumption" version.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:17 | 3142795 Helix6
Helix6's picture


Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:56 | 3142917 Umh
Umh's picture

...... when the plate quits spinning rapidly it will fall off of the stick.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:59 | 3142933 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

koncaswatch said:

I wonder how the "for eyes only" version of this report compares to this "for public consumption" version.

The "for eyes only" version is similar, but it's done as an animated powerpoint presentation enhanced with an audio laugh track and gratuitous porn.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 00:32 | 3143424 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

ahhh, yes, certainly achieving the 9th circle of Hell, then cycling back for a closed loop re-run.

"only a quarter!"

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 19:45 | 3142693 Clesthenes
Clesthenes's picture

It appears that NIC failed to factor in effects of the Prescription Drug Modernization Act of 2004.  The comptroller of the US didn’t miss this factor; and he came to the conclusion that the system as it now exists “is not sustainable” beyond 2020.  A private economist, who derives data mainly from government issues, thinks the system’s policies are “system-dooming”.  I think they are “civilization-destroying”, that we look forward to another Dark  Age; and, owing to debt levels now that did not exist in the first Dark Age, this one will last far longer than a thousand years.

While the propaganda machine tells you the federal debt is some $16 trillion, the above private economist tells us it is more like $70 trillion.  He is modest.  His total is derived by using “present value” dollars.  Such dollars are discounted to account for assumed interest; thus, how many dollars plus interest will equal a debt in a year?  So, for example, $950 today will equal a debt of $1,000 in one year (assuming 5% interest).  If we employed these dollars on our financial statements, we’d go to jail.  Not so privileged thieves.  If we use normal dollars to measure the federal debt, it is far higher than $70 trillion.  It is not wise to use these higher numbers unless you have about ten to thirty minutes to explain your work.

Is the destruction of the system (or Western civilization) avoidable?

Of course not.  The only question that matters is: “Who will suffer the losses… those who engineered and perpetrated this pending holocaust… or those who were duped/shoved into it?

If you’re satisfied with the first option, relax; you don’t need to do anything – it will happen.

If you prefer the second alternative, you must realize that rights are secure only when power and rights reside in the same hands.  And then learn how to acquire the needed power, as American Founders did.  It’s a power that enabled English rebels to bring down judges and tax collectors, bishops and kings who thot they had a divine right to impose taxes on other men without the latters’ consent; men who, 150 years later would guide American rebels.

With this knowledge, we don’t have to wait for redress, or huddle in futility.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:20 | 3142804 Helix6
Helix6's picture

IIRC, they achieved that through armed insurrection...

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 21:42 | 3143069 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

"150 years later would guide American rebels" into the waiting arms of the largest, most broke, most imprison-happy, most corrupt, most hyperlegislative temper-tantrum-throwing-spoiled-rotten-toddler of a nation in the history of man.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:03 | 3142740 kito
kito's picture

the u.s. will be third world by then. parts of america will thrive, the outlying areas will be destitute wastelands..........think russia...wealthy pockets in a country with an overall very low standard of living.............

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:37 | 3142856 PRO.223
PRO.223's picture

That's funny bugs, you must be as old as I am.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 20:46 | 3142891 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

2030 is only 18 years away.

i remember 1994, like it was almost yesterday..1976 is a bit of a stretch.

global trends...

  • much more stuff available, most of it for entertainment
  • the food quality is a lot better, but I don't know where it came from and I don't care
  • can travel anywhere, people aren't surprised where you come from, or impressed by it
  • americans are more hated than ever before, most people still intimidated by americas big guns, but not by americas butter
  • lots more moslems, chinese and indians out and about 
  • kids are far smarter, outgoing and rely less on drugs and booze
  • cars are way more reliable and more affordable
  • planes are much much more crowded
  • wars are more like murder than hand to hand combat
  • trade imbalances don't matter any more
  • money printing has increasingly replaced taxes as a source of government income
  • interest rates only matter if you aren't in debt and instead only have capital
  • i no longer care where anything is made, because the bits come from everywhere/anywhere
  • cost reductions from technological advancements do not reduce charges by banks, hedge funds, mutual funds or insurance companies

I think things will progress pretty much along these lines. Brazil will be much much bigger than the authors of this report think. I look forward to the invention of the anti-gravity engine and one that produces oxygen and water as exhaust (think electricty from bacteria eating humanity's faeces). Water will be scarcer, but breakthroughs in desalination or ice capture from the poles will take care of that. I think we will be at least wearing jacket arms made of flexible plastic that acts as a communications device and data processor, perhaps with some cpmputing power..maybe with 3d image transmission onto walls!

SPARTACUS will complete all this without the need for democratic government (except for wars, benefits and street cleaning etc).

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 21:01 | 3142942 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

You forgot the </sarc> tag.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 21:33 | 3143033 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

"kids are far smarter, outgoing and rely less on drugs and booze"

That may be the funniest thing I've ever read on ZH.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 22:02 | 3143134 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture


Thu, 01/10/2013 - 21:34 | 3143035 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

Actually food quality is dropping across the board, the "pink slime" content of your meat products goes up every year along with limits on contaminants and your exposure to mad cow, but meat in isn't the only food being debased, all processed & fast food is continually debased and replaced with less safe cheaper replacements and additives.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 22:08 | 3143151 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

you are probably right..i can remember burgers tasting like warm carboard and tureens with fat swimming on the top of them in the 70's ..the 90's seem to be full of pasta and not much meat..these seems to taste fresher and I am told more about what's in it..not that i give a shit whats in it, as long as it doesn't wake me up in a cold sweat at 4 am..but there you go..i think we just didnt know how bad things were in the past and we are discovering the current state of play with the quality on an upwardly sloping curve..any food processors out there?

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 21:04 | 3142951 alfbell
alfbell's picture

What a laugh whenever any government branch or agency uses the word "intelligence" in their title. Could there ever be a bigger contradiction?

These guys should be closed down. More waste of taxpayers money.

No thanks... I'll stick with Gerald Celente's Trend Reports.

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 21:23 | 3143000 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

LoL, they ignored the Muslim Caliphate we just created, and current & past Muslim growth rates, they're not even on the map, that map was ethnic.

In 2030 the world is going to be divided 50/50 Muslim and non Muslim can't anybody do math anymore?


Thu, 01/10/2013 - 21:34 | 3143023 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

What vapor.  "When China overtakes us."  Bosh.  China overtook us economically ten years ago.  There isn't any measure of production or consumption in which China isn't a factor of two to en above us.


Thu, 01/10/2013 - 21:31 | 3143024 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

“a collapse or sudden retreat of US power would most likely result in an extended period of global anarchy,”


"with “no stable international system and no leading power to replace the US.”"

Oh, the horror, the terror, the humanity, anything but that!


Thu, 01/10/2013 - 21:36 | 3143046 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture
Japanese Prime Minister Abe says no room to negotiate stance on islands Update details:

- Recently there were reports that Japan were to increase their coast guard presence around the disputed islands in the east China sea.
- Prime minister Abe is hawkish when it comes to defense policy and has a particularly patriotic stance.


Cruzin for a bruzin....

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 23:15 | 3143310 mercenaryomics
mercenaryomics's picture

Mr Soft-Power himself, I actually just heard today he's visiting my debt-prison (school) at some point in April.

I think he's overrated but then again Harvard doesn't pay me big bucks.  Though I wonder what order of magnitude less he makes than the Harvard hedge fund managers.  

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 23:27 | 3143322 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Such optimism

Thu, 01/10/2013 - 23:54 | 3143374 el-greco
el-greco's picture

utopian nonsense. there is nothing in the behaviour of the US political military and financial establishment that suggests it would want to share anything in the future. not only does it plan to cannibalise the world and its resources but it's also in the process  of cannibalising its own citizenry.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 02:13 | 3143499 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

Hell Yeah, el-greco!

Dystopian realites!

The Office of National Intelligence is as deliberately stupid in public pronouncements as NIST.

It is awesomely awful to attempt to understand what is really going on within the USA.

While this kind of global report on trends is accurate enough, as far as it goes, almost everything which is publicly stated by the "intelligence community" inside the USA is automatically presented inside of a context of psychotic propaganda! The salient symbol of that general social situation was that there is no reasonable doubt that the events on 9/11/2001 were an inside job, false flag attack. The attempts made by government agencies to scientifically explain to the public what happened on 9/11/2001 are astonishing absurdities. Therefore, the USA has already reached a point of irreversible, irredeemable social polarization, due the government being totally controlled by professional liars and immaculate hypocrites.

Its financial system is based on runaway triumphant fraud, in the form of legalizing privatized creation of "money" out of nothing, as debts, on an exponential growth curve, which has already left behind debt slavery, on its ways towards debt insanity. That monetary system is backed up by a murder system which is equally psychotic. The USA does "lead" the world's combined money/murder system, or debt control/death control system. HOWEVER, its real plans are not made public, they are covert, and can only be guessed at through informed speculations.

The ONLY things that the ruling classes appear to have actually prepared to do to deal with the obvious runaway problems of exponential growth of everything, reaching real limits, is to start genocidal wars, along with imposing democidal martial law.

Furthermore, the ONLY real alternative solutions to the impossible to sustain quantitative exponential growth on a finite planet, in a finite solar system, are alternative death controls.  By definition, some system of limits will and must stop endless exponential growth, since endless exponential growth is absolutely impossible in a world where human beings can never make energy out of nothing, nor send energy to nothing. By definition, those limits are some form of death controls, operating within some kind of murder system. The universe will not say "yes" to endless exponential growth. We have been able to do that only because we were strip mining a fresh planet with recently discovered sciences and technologies. But nevertheless, all the basic chronic political problems continued. Right now, it looks like that globalized Neolithic style of civilization is grossly overshooting what might have been sustainable, and therefore, is going to collapse into chaos as a result.

TO REPEAT: The ONLY real preparations for that which the ruling classes have actually made are arrangements to start more wars, along with imposing martial law. The ONLY real alternatives are to do that in somehow better ways than otherwise will happen, by making a greater use of information, manifesting higher consciousness.

The deep dilemma we are inside of is that the USA is the "leading" example of the flowering of Neolithic civilization as a system of fraud, backed by force. That is a world-wide system, dominated by a global elite, who have built a system of electronic fiat money frauds, backed by the threats from atomic weapons. The "leading" manifestations of that system are evident in the USA, but also, are therefore the most paradoxically present there.

Thus, the public pronouncements of the "intelligence community" in the USA are about as deliberately stupid as one could possibly imagine, since they are supreme local achievements of systems of triumphant deceits. What is covertly happening within the covert government that controls the public government is difficult to figure out, since doing that is to travel through an infinite tunnel of deceits, which are a Bizarro Mirror World, where everything is proportionately backwards and distorted.

As above, so below. As within, so without. And, the lies are different at every level. We have a covert global elite, which appear to be increasingly psychotic, attempting to consolidate their hegemonic empire based on frauds, backed by force. Therefore, one false flag attack after another is the mainstay of what happens, while the "intelligence community" publicly goes along with the bullshit interpretations of what those events mean, while the real agenda seems pretty well perfectly the opposite.

Furthermore, the apparent public opposition to that established system of fraud, backed by force, are various reactionary revolutionaries, who want to go backwards, in different directions, depending upon which particular old-fashioned impossible ideals they prefer. The current systems are run by liars and hypocrites, opposed in controlled ways by other liars and hypocrites.

Meanwhile, the actual realities are energy flows organized in systems, which are always organized lies, operating organized robberies. Those who are dominating and controlling those realities the most are those who were the best at being dishonest about what they were doing, and backing that up with violence. Therefore, the PLAINLY OBVIOUS central social facts are the questions about how the various ecologies are going to evolve, which means what will be those people and processes which survive, and what will be those that do not.

Attempts to predict what the world will look like in twenty years should be based upon the best efforts to consider all the current trends, and how those may interact. HOWEVER, the most important of all those trends is the relative runaway triumph of fascist plutocracy, building a fascist police state. The most important of all current trends, which should be modelled with attempts to integrate extrapolations of that, are various forms of frauds, backed by force, all being amplified to astronomical sizes, by science and technology.

What is the most important question is what may be called the Oedipal dilemma in the philosophy of science, as that is at the foundation of the technological society that depends upon that science. We have had a series of profound paradigm shifts in sciences like physics and biology, which have been mainly employed to become better at being dishonest and violent, in order to advance the Neolithic civilization's style of frauds, backed by force. We have pumped powers which are trillions of times bigger into historically developed systems of organized lies, operating organized robberies.

The challenge the human experiment faces is whether it will be possible to evolve our human ecologies, in ways that reconcile the emerging industrial ecologies, with the ancient natural ecologies. The paradoxical problem with such Oedipal dilemmas are that the history of militarism made deceits the successful strategies, which enabled the War Kings, which then enabled the Fraud Kings.

The government of the USA "leads" the established global systems based on sovereign powers (War Kings) covertly controlled by the international bankers (Fraud Kings.)  Their controlled opposition tends to be based on promoting the same bullshit of false fundamental dichotomies as the War Kings and the Fraud Kings do.  The realities of how fraud, backed by force, control the world, because there IS, and MUST BE, debt controls, backed by death controls, are as deeply buried under social taboos as it was humanly possible to do.

The Oedipal dilemma presented, perhaps, is a chance to transform Neolithic civilization into a Translithic civilization. Short of that, then the path we ARE on is towards genocidal wars, along with democidal martial law. Those are the ONLY practical solutions which have actually been prepared for, and doing that better are the ONLY real alternatives.

Reports like this one from the so-called "intelligence community" of the USA are as goofy as they can possibly get, since they presume to believe in a bunch of nonsense, which appears to be as stupid as it could possibly be. Therefore, the most probable REAL futures are those where the maximum possible greed and stupidity are the primary factors which direct what happens.

We ARE going to evolve our ecology, as energy systems. However, at present, we ARE evolving those as the maximally psychotic frauds, backed by force, that are humanly possible. Therefore, the REAL futures look like they will be nightmare dystopias, while the only genuinely better alternatives MUST be based on some series of political miracles, manifesting as profound paradigm shifts in militarism and monetary systems.

The REAL solutions are going to primarily become death control events. Although there will also be an abundance of breakthrough creativity, and lots of creative alternatives are quite possible, there can never be no murder system, and no death controls. Right now, those are done through the means of the maximum possible deceits, to the extent that it is practically impossible to have any saner public debate that even admits and addresses these problems. This report on futurological predictions coming from the USA "intelligence community" exemplifies that!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 04:06 | 3143583 BlackVoid
BlackVoid's picture

Death controls: famine, war and epidemics. These will happen with and without the elite.

There will not be enough energy to maintain big centralized systems in the long run. Bing centralized systems are vulnerable and need a lot of energy to maintain. The question: when will these fall apart.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 03:06 | 3143550 dunce
dunce's picture

They are predicting the economic and political collapse of the USA, if we are not leading the world the world is headed for big trouble. The idea that there will be one big happy global family is delusional. No other nation has the desire or the ability to lead the world, they have a long history of domestic failure so there is no reason to believe a global effort would not be just a bigger political and economic mistake. The idea that no leadership is needed is just insane.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 03:45 | 3143572 BlackVoid
BlackVoid's picture

This article is bullshit IMHO, it takes a ruler and continues current trends.

But current trends are unsustainable, so this will never happen.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 07:22 | 3143674 Oldrepublic
Fri, 01/11/2013 - 08:16 | 3143714 Monk
Monk's picture

Think of the current situation but even worse.


Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:57 | 3143906 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

Back in 1985, when I was in college, we read a book that some liberal-enviro-elite wrote concerning the direction of the supply of oil and its inevitable decline in supply from 1980 to 2015.  The book showed a steady decline in supply with an ever-increasing demand up until its near exhaustion in 2015 based on what was then the technology of the day for recovery, refining and dispersing oil.  The book/graphs never took into account technological advances, like fracking, pipeline expansion, political shifts, enviro-policy etc...  The bottom line is that I don't pay much attention to these future-looking scenarios because there are too many variables to take into account to make accurate predictions about the future.  Today, the world is awash in oil and only 2 years away from 2015 when the supposed exhaustion of all oil supplies was to occur. 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:29 | 3144004 andyupnorth
andyupnorth's picture

The status quo consider their position as status quo a national security issue.  Fact is ... they are the threat to national security.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:38 | 3144022 andyupnorth
andyupnorth's picture

The Military Industrial complex has a tremendous public cost on the American Public, but the "freed" resources are then taken by large, for-profit, Private companies.  These companies then sell the resources for a high price in order to generate tremendous profits.  There is therefore an extraction wealth from the public that is funneled into a few large corporations.  This means that the military is a tool used to increase the assets of corporation, and meanwhile drive up the cost of living because we are competing against the military in purchasing oil, metals, etc.  If the military was suddenly disbanded overnight, the price of oil, steel, copper, etc, would be decimated. 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:57 | 3144055 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Mandatory Swine/ Avian  flu vaccine caused 1/3 global population to die off of contagion and related starvation in late 2013.

This time they get it right.


Fri, 01/11/2013 - 15:54 | 3145200 R_J
R_J's picture


---good VOMIT, oh  and here´s moar: no links needed.


-ESPAS Report ‘Global Trends 2030 - Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World’
-G20 - A Pathway to Effective Multilateralism
-Global Governance 2025 - At a Critical Juncture
-Global Trend-NIC-2020-Project
-The Royal Society - People And The Planet - 2012-04-25
-UN_International Covenant on Environment and Development
-UN_Working Towards a Balanced and Inclusive Green Economy, A United Nations -System-Wide Perspective


--and of course there is moar to mock us like: SUSTAINABLE DEV, and A-21, and BREEN...solly solly i mean "GREEN" dev etc,


These fascist Malthusians cant get enough of these  typos published, problem is the aspartame public just go with it, coz they adore the "Federation" Star Trek-style Vomit Empire.


Yeah...we should get started now...SERIOUSLY.




Sun, 01/13/2013 - 06:58 | 3145955 Calm47
Calm47's picture

The author makes a reservation with regard to the correct methods of extrapolation. These methods are relatively well in periods of stability when changing only the quantitative indicators. In times of crisis and fundamental change when the picture changes qualitatively, extrapolation methods are not very suitable. Specified in the report of the script is one of the best possible scenario. If we start from the analysis of the world process, there may be much more bad options (

). Perhaps the formation of a multipolar world, with its system of radical confrontation and rivalry, the threat of mutual destruction.


Sun, 01/13/2013 - 06:52 | 3148523 Calm47
Calm47's picture

The author makes a reservation with regard to the correct methods of extrapolation. These methods are relatively well in periods of stability when changing only the quantitative indicators. In times of crisis and fundamental change when the picture changes qualitatively, extrapolation methods are not very suitable. Specified in the report of the script is one of the best possible scenario ( ). If we start from the analysis of global processes, which may be a bad option. Perhaps the formation of a multipolar world, with its system of radical

Sun, 01/13/2013 - 06:51 | 3148524 Calm47
Calm47's picture

The author makes a reservation with regard to the correct methods of extrapolation. These methods are relatively well in periods of stability when changing only the quantitative indicators. In times of crisis and fundamental change when the picture changes qualitatively, extrapolation methods are not very suitable. Specified in the report of the script is one of the best possible scenario ( ). If we start from the analysis of global processes, which may be a bad option. Perhaps the formation of a multipolar world, with its system of radical

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