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Stolper Time: Goldman Says To Go Long EURUSD With 1.37 Target, 1.29 Stop

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With the EURUSD trading rangebound in the past few months, everyone needed a catalyst for a forward direction. Today, we got it courtesy of Goldman's Tom Stolper, who just released yet another EURUSD trade recommendation with a 1.37 Target.

From Goldman:

As we discussed in Monday’s Global Markets Daily, we continue to expect the compression in Euro area risk premia to push EUR/$ higher. Having just closed our long EUR/CAD recommendation, and in order to maintain exposure to the theme, we recommend long EUR/$ positions with a target of 1.37 and a stop at 1.29.

So let's get this straight: Goldman's 0.000 batter has a trade recommendation that has upside of 400 pips, and downside of... 400 pips? As always: do the opposite of what Tom Stolper, who is almost as "accurate" as Whitney Tilson in his recommendations, says which also happens to be the same direction as what Goldman's prop desk does.

In the meantime, mind the kneejerk short covering reaction, as Goldman pumps every correlated leveraged fulcrum point to send stocks even higher (remember: EURUSD correlates to the ES virtually 1 to 1). Because one can be certainly that Germany will be simply delighted to see its already impaired exports suffer even more as the EUR ramps, making German exports even more expensive, in the process deepening Germany's recession.

One wonders: how long until the ECB realizes it should be doing all it can to lower the EUR (like every other central bank), not raise it. Oh wait: redenomination risk. Nevermind.

 

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Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:21 | 3143812 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Go long crap.....either one.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:08 | 3143929 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Does anyone know why the 10 year has gone from 1.58 to 1.88 recently?  Is this “noise” or a long term trend?

I was thinking a long term trend to start around September or October, not this soon.

 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:08 | 3143939 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

because thats where the algos want it to go

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:21 | 3143816 Capitalist
Capitalist's picture

Damn and I was just about to let my EUR positions run... oh well Stolper is the best contrarian indicator. Pretty sure he's been wrong 95% of the time. Anyone have his current score?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:50 | 3143892 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Translation: Lower your STOP LOSS to $1.285

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:29 | 3144001 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Thank you, Stolper!  I'd love to see 1.29 right now.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:38 | 3144024 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

This is awful news. One of the first things I did this morning when I saw the euro had risen was to check how high would it go. I figured 1.37 to 1.40 depending on how fast. Now I realize what company I'm keeping. Eewww!!
Seriously I see no major stopping points for the eurusd around 1,33 so if it turns it will be from risk off. IMH(and ignorant)O. Does this mean Goldman knows something about risk off coming soon?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:22 | 3143818 Racer
Racer's picture

So let me see... eur$ is 133, that gives a possible gain of 4 with a potential loss of 4?

Hmmmm... I see, makes perfect sense!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:23 | 3143822 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Nice one Racer, spot on.

DavidC

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:35 | 3143857 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Exactly, now about those sovereign bonds and bond auctions....

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:23 | 3143819 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I think Stolper is going to get this one right.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:27 | 3143836 ZH11
ZH11's picture

There's a first time for everything I suppose, but on this occassion I hope he sticks to form and gets this horredously wrong for my benefit.

Anyway don't they always tip to drum up business for the trade they actually want to make?

 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:24 | 3143824 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Sweet!! Free Money!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:25 | 3143826 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Anyone listening to stolper's advice at this point simply enjoys getting the fucking Goldman pipe up the ass.

Fuck you Goldman, shitheads.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:19 | 3144839 Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

Agree. I'm already disgusted with their manipulative and intentionally mendacious bullshit speech.

Wake me up when they'll recommend to go long gold.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:25 | 3143830 DavidC
DavidC's picture

And, of course, everyone KNOWS that the Eurozone crisis is resolved...

DavidC

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:27 | 3143837 evolutionx
evolutionx's picture
Prepare for the Worst: Celente on 2013

Video

http://www.homment.com/jHTBQnDGS4

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:28 | 3143838 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Tyler   You know his track record.....However I believe this is not a Tilson momemt!!!   Like that trade.....

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:29 | 3143841 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

Starting Euro short sequence in T minus 5...4...3...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:31 | 3143847 Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

I'm on it. Should I go all in sir?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:37 | 3143862 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

2013 black swan is this guy gets one right.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:38 | 3143863 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Steve Liesman is just utterly intellectually disgusting

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:38 | 3143864 Itch
Itch's picture

Yesterdays move had a 0.1% chance of happening wrt daily volatility ranges, in 12 years of data those euro moves happened 6 times out of 3568. I would tend to go with stoppler this time for various reasons. Mainly the fashion in which Wednesdays offers were absorbed was just absurd, leading me to believe the move was telegraphed. There is also the general feeling that the worst is over; far be it from me to judge such matters but there are already people coming out of the woodwork, confident enough to gloat about the weathering of the storm etc. Its certainly not fixed, but in lieu of severe crisis and people throwing up in buckets, there’s definitely room for some upside relief. That said, I dare say if Stoppler is at his lark everything will come crashing down in spectacular fashion rather soon and it wont be hard to tell if so. Hence proceed with caution.

 

 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:14 | 3143901 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

And what of the bonds coming due and future bond auctions?  Are you suggesting that sovereigns are simply going to shut down all their operations and go home when they can't fund their operations or are you saying this is it, the Zimbabwe conclusion as all markets and gold go parabolic?

Governments are the eCONomy now, America in particular has enjoyed an artificially low cost for funding it's operations.  Are you saying that this is over?  I don't see how going long the euro is particularly profittable considering it is just about as risky as shorting treasuries. The Fed is behind the Euro and the Dollar, both will go to zero.

My hypothesis is simple, the banking cartel wants the U.S. to be more like europeans, unarmed obidient sheep.

Once this transformation has occurred, the bankers can really do whatever they want without any fear of actually ever being held accountable.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:25 | 3143989 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"....unarmed obidient sheep....the bankers can really do whatever they want without any fear of actually ever being held accountable."

They have no fear of being held accountable now.  They are looking to eliminate any resistance from anybody else to anything they want to do.  Imagine the world as their petri dish or Abu Garib.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:25 | 3144179 Itch
Itch's picture

Im talking about currency sentiment here bud; its just tittle-tattle, a never-ending speculating circus of up or down. Long-term positions in the spot market are not really my cup of tea, that’s not to say I don’t try every now and again. This is the problem; the amount of fear required to drive the Euro down significantly for long periods has historically needed to be exaggerated, palatable, on a par with people running from zombies…

Hence, with respect to sovereign auctions (the Spanish issuance yesterday is also helping to fuel the Euro move btw), we see very few failures, and aren’t likely to see any for a while thanks to Draghi… those are the hard and fast facts of the matter, not what “ought” to be in a normative “I think the world needs to be better” sense, but what “is” in a literal sense. Im not saying its “right”, I don’t even know what right means anymore, but I certainly don’t factor in Bankers trying to control the universe when I dip my toe in the currency market (about 20 times per day). I accept at face value that they are doing what they believe needs to be done. Do I flirt with the idea now and again that these people are dangerous fools? Sure (but I would be a dangerous fool too if I had any brains). Is it actionable information that I can turn a profit with? You can bet your tiny balls its not.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:49 | 3144252 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Sorry, I am busy produce stuff of real value, but will be happy to take your wealth it's time to eat.  

Play away idiot, some like masterbation more than others, have at it.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:24 | 3144376 Itch
Itch's picture

I'll take your concerns on board. Of course what you really mean when you speak of your “production” is that you are too busy to take other peoples opinions into consideration because it would ruin your illusion of moral superiority and paint you into a corner you probably don’t inhabit much in your day-to-day life because you live amongst the meek. Im a forgiving chap, I grant you permission to run away from your opinions; i mean what have i got to lose, you have taken nothing belonging to me. But of course you will end up "eating me", right... Tell me this, a life changing consideration for you perhaps, but have you ever considered the possibility where you don’t get to eat anyone? Have you even entertained how humiliating a reality that would be for you on such a fundamental level considering you have, evidently, so much invested in the fact? Just a thought, but a thought you may want to consider before it eats you alive.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 15:44 | 3145162 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Well that's a whole lot of nothing.  I am in agriculture.  If you want to eat, I accept gold and silver.  That clear things up for you?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 17:52 | 3145592 Itch
Itch's picture

Dude if i want to eat, i will go to a restaurant or a shop like all the other billions of consumers, i.e. the places that keep you in business; im just a consumer like all the others, likewise you are just a farmer like the millions of others (i suppose the only difference is that consumers don’t get billions in handouts and subsidies). We are, in some theoretical flight of fancy, co-dependent. But get this straight, the day i personally arrive at your door offering PM's in exchange for food, the day you have a genuine right to wave your finger in my face with respect to "my hunger", is the day i suffer the most fucking brutal cosmic twist of fate, in which i land in a different country, flat broke with only my dead granny's wedding ring and a craving for chicken eggs or pigs feet, or whatever animal produce you are butchering down at the farm.

The take home from this? Stop personalising the micro transactions of a global economy to suit your own self-importance. The population is growing, but it wont grow so much in your lifetime or my lifetime that we see even minor food shortages in the west. I live in some of the most fertile land on the planet, there is not a snowballs chance in fucking hell i'll be going hungry in my lifetime, or my childrens lifetime. That’s a fact. Now you can ignore that fact because it suits your cuntish fantasies, but i assure you, you are going to be a bitter man because of it. I repeat, i will not be going hungry, i will never depend on you, and god fucking help the people that ever will, because by the sounds of things they will be going to you on bended knee. They will have to ignore their status of consumers and take on that of beggars. Fuck you, you are twice as bad as bankers, i dont know any bankers cheering on famine just so they can be on top. 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:42 | 3143868 electricgorilla
electricgorilla's picture

Do the opposite of Tilson and Stolper. Make $. Someone could start a hedge fund an be profitable just off these two strategies. I'd call it stolperlization of the tilson principle.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:41 | 3143869 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Decent spike in Gold/Silver this morning

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:44 | 3143875 knukles
knukles's picture

If it don't work it'll be blamed on the flu

Pass the mercury flavored jello, please

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:48 | 3143884 Kina
Kina's picture

Anybody saying they can pick these things is lying...toss a coin is the same.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:56 | 3143899 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Time to consult with the Oracle of the Monkey named 'Leonard' that lives in the plastic 8-Ball [which exists on the edge of the coin that was flipped ~ by Fibonacci himself ~ & miraculously landed on its side right on top of the Eliott Wave peak during the peak sunspot activity period where Mercury was in retrograde]...

~~~

Therein you'll find answers... [or ~ you could just go ask Bob PISS ON ME]...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:48 | 3143885 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

At the start of last year, Tom Stolper also recommended going long EUR/USD and made money for the clients. However, ZH didn't report that...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:51 | 3143894 dcb
dcb's picture

this is why I am almost always programmed on two sides of a trade, so I stop out and go the other way. I try a work a weekly swing trade, using leveraged regular and inverse funds.

on oil, I've made tooog money and because we entered a new weekly high yesterday I bout a shot expecting a drop, and could add that posion if it runed the other way while making profits. works for me.

in general most new weekly highs are not that much higher than past weeks weekly high.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:59 | 3143907 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Euro has some resistance to close above before going long.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/euro-daily-bounces-dollar-falls-macd-re...

 

Going long below resistance is high risk stuff.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:05 | 3143923 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

STOP! Stolper time!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:05 | 3143925 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

One wonders: how long until the ECB realizes it should be doing all it can to lower the EUR (like every other central bank), not raise it.

They're not raising it.  USD is down. 

Perhaps that "trillion dollar coin" idea spooked some folks around the world about the sanity of the US govt.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:09 | 3143942 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The world should have been concerned about the sanity of the US government since the mid-60's when it became all too clear that the MIC and banking cartel were going to have their way and anyone opposed to sound reasponsible monetary and fiscal policy would be eliminated.  Now these fuckers are trapped, they want a weaker dollar, but they still want the dollar to be good for oil purchases.  The only reason the dollar still stands is because of the U.S. military, period, full stop.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:28 | 3143999 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"Now these fuckers are trapped, they want a weaker dollar, but they still want the dollar to be good for oil purchases."

They're fucked if they allow the "market" to limit their options.  Which they won't, because if they did they'd be fucked.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:44 | 3144046 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

That which cannot be sustained, won't be.  Hedge accordingly (long durable bicycles).

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:09 | 3143940 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

do the opposite of what Tom Stolper, who is almost as "accurate" as Whitney Tilson in his recommendations, says which also happens to be the same direction as what Goldman's prop desk does.

If only we could figure out a way to front run these front running bastards.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:09 | 3143941 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

This is a good thing!

I got all my assets in dollars for now and when the euro goes down like Goldman doesn't say they'll be worth even more!

WHOEHOE! THX GOLDMAN!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:13 | 3143953 From Germany Wi...
From Germany With Love's picture

'One wonders: how long until the ECB realizes it should be doing all it can to lower the EUR (like every other central bank), not raise it. Oh wait: redenomination risk. Nevermind.'

 

Import tariffs > currency debasement. You don't end up with a ruined currency.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:13 | 3143959 From Germany Wi...
From Germany With Love's picture

Of course both are the same BS, dont get me wrong. Tariffs are just easy to lift.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:23 | 3143982 Flounder
Flounder's picture

Hats off to Draghi et al.  Five days ago EURUSD was technically dead and fundamentally weak.  Now they've got one of the biggest up moves in 18 months.  Diamond set in dung.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:30 | 3144006 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Kabuki.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:16 | 3144348 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Do the opposite of what the TRIBE tells you because that is the trade they will make. This group cannot be trusted on any front.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:42 | 3144425 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

Welcome to the top!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:44 | 3144427 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Squid has some Euro ink to sell today.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:58 | 3144478 Dubaibanker
Dubaibanker's picture

Sold the EUR at 1.3275 this afternoon.....Waiting to see how it develops next week....pretty sure, it will turn negative.

Watching the yuan rise and sitting on it....Yuan can be bought and invested in CNY bonds and also lending available against CNY bonds! Bond rise, coupon and the yuan rise! Its a triple whammy!! Go yuan go!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:12 | 3144536 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Yeah right, this is exactly what Spain needs right now, along with plunging industrial production, a hardening currency.

Funny, I was planning to shift my PMs in Euro yesterday....

 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:20 | 3144567 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Short it then.

Sat, 01/12/2013 - 01:03 | 3146552 pingpongthesecond
pingpongthesecond's picture

I'll make money both ways, but as said the last Stolper EURUSD call did quite well.

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