With the EURUSD trading rangebound in the past few months, everyone needed a catalyst for a forward direction. Today, we got it courtesy of Goldman's Tom Stolper, who just released yet another EURUSD trade recommendation with a 1.37 Target.
As we discussed in Monday’s Global Markets Daily, we continue to expect the compression in Euro area risk premia to push EUR/$ higher. Having just closed our long EUR/CAD recommendation, and in order to maintain exposure to the theme, we recommend long EUR/$ positions with a target of 1.37 and a stop at 1.29.
So let's get this straight: Goldman's 0.000 batter has a trade recommendation that has upside of 400 pips, and downside of... 400 pips? As always: do the opposite of what Tom Stolper, who is almost as "accurate" as Whitney Tilson in his recommendations, says which also happens to be the same direction as what Goldman's prop desk does.
In the meantime, mind the kneejerk short covering reaction, as Goldman pumps every correlated leveraged fulcrum point to send stocks even higher (remember: EURUSD correlates to the ES virtually 1 to 1). Because one can be certainly that Germany will be simply delighted to see its already impaired exports suffer even more as the EUR ramps, making German exports even more expensive, in the process deepening Germany's recession.
One wonders: how long until the ECB realizes it should be doing all it can to lower the EUR (like every other central bank), not raise it. Oh wait: redenomination risk. Nevermind.