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Tom DeMark: "Sell The World" And Soon, The US

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Because there are still some traders who adhere to such old normal traditions as charting and technical analysis (because apparently the FOMC committee sits down each month and observes Ichimoku clouds, RSI indicators and Bollinger bands), it is probably notable that one of the most respected chartists, Steve Cohen's favorite technician Tom DeMark, is now uniformly bearish on virtually all markets around the world which have triggered a sell signal in his studies, and is about to drop the axe on the US as well where a "Daily 13" signal is imminent. The caveat, of course, is that in a world in which fundamentals haven't mattered in years, why should technicals?

 

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Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:54 | 3144066 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Hmmmm Dollars or Euros......Euros or Dollars?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:57 | 3144080 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

If only there were other options...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:59 | 3144089 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

Eurodollars?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:07 | 3144116 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

Physical precious metals.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:09 | 3144120 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Aaaannndd its the 13th in 2 days!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:45 | 3144241 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Would seem the union dock workers don't have quite the negotiating leverage they believe...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:07 | 3144297 Texas Ginslinger
Texas Ginslinger's picture

From a FT article this morning;

"...US equity funds drew in $18.3bn in 2013’s first full week of trading, making it one of the busiest weeks on record as investors took advantage of the positive market conditions in the wake of a compromise deal on the US fiscal cliff.

Thomson Reuters’ Lipper service said the week to January 9 was the fourth largest for net inflows of equity funds since it began calculating weekly flows in 1992.

The data, which include exchange traded funds, come as global equities have reached multi-year highs..."

http://www.ft.com/home/us

Investors are bailing out of bonds.  An article I saw a few days ago said Buffett and Soros are selling a lot of their equities.  Not sure if they were just looking for an end-of-the yaer tax break. 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:24 | 3144314 French Frog
French Frog's picture

Has Tom not heard of the Fed?

Probably just another cheap trick to suck in some more shorts...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:20 | 3144846 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Probably also hasn't heard of bayesian updating.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:13 | 3144134 FromGaltsGulch
FromGaltsGulch's picture

I subcribe to Demark..I got a 13 on the close yesterday..I beleive the interview was during the day when it was still a "12"..

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:13 | 3144135 FromGaltsGulch
FromGaltsGulch's picture

I subcribe to Demark..I got a 13 on the close yesterday..I beleive the interview was during the day when it was still a "12"..

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:35 | 3144215 cognus
cognus's picture

I thought he said 1474.50 was the hurdle...  market closed 1472...

ONward through the fog to the blowoff! full steam ahead pension fundies

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:41 | 3144671 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

...and don't say Loonies    

Not an option as their are plenty of those in the good ol' US of A today, starting with Washington DC.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:22 | 3144169 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Yahoo Poll: More than $19 billion flowed into U.S. equity funds this week, the fourth-highest uptick since 2000. Are you getting back into the game?

AKA. Time to sell. Sheep moving in for the slaughter.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:45 | 3144683 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

 

Somebody has to be there to take out the Longs and hold the bag (albeit, an empty one).    

Enter... the victims.

This is how "profit taking" works.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:23 | 3144174 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"Hmmmm Dollars or Euros......Euros or Dollars?"

No escape.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:35 | 3144217 CcalSD
CcalSD's picture

Sell Sell Sell

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 15:05 | 3144991 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

or FSG even should the tracers start flying over in Japan ?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:55 | 3144072 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I like that graphic on the screen... Reminds me of 'The Joker's Wild'...

~~~

Joker.... Joker.... JOKER!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:12 | 3144818 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Joker.... Joker.... pot luck picks.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:55 | 3144075 ricky2
ricky2's picture

Backwards!?!?!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:56 | 3144076 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I am selling Earth, but buying the moon on the rumor that AMZN is going to put a fulfillment center up on it soon to avoid taxes.  

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:00 | 3144082 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I'm noticing amazon's prices on products are rising and I see Target is starting to price match amazon also. Target is putting in WiFi so you can look at comparable prices online and then you can show them at checkout to get the better online price applied to your purchase. bad news for AMZN? now if Target would just start stocking ammo and 30 round mags.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:27 | 3144187 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Nobody is going to be stocking 30 round mags in the very near future.  Biden is to report back to "that guy" on Tuesday.  Like the outcome isn't already pre-determined, right?  But it makes for a good show and gives Biden something to do.  I figure the Executive Orders will be issued within a week or two after that.

A 9-10 round limit on magazine size is such a no-brainer you can pretty much take it to the bank it will be covered in the first "Assault Weapon Ban" E.O. off his desk.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:57 | 3144471 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

Can't find CCI #400's ANYWHERE

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:26 | 3144598 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

Good move for Target's survival if they can streamline supply chain.   Best Buy ignored and didnt respond fast enough to Amazon at their peril.

I think the future of retail will be some level of supplier consignment to stock retail stores.   Similar to parts suppliers to auto companies where the parts inventory are stocked by supplier on shop floor and invoiced as soon as they are used.   Big retail will probably go this route more and more.

Secondly, the barcode scan/wifi/QR mobile scan will be the standard for people to scan the code and see an informational video on the product, and get access to reviews.   Retailers will sell much more stuff with an informed consumer.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:31 | 3144623 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

BB died to me when they employed an intranet that looked like their internet site in stores that showed jacked up prices compared to the internet prices. bastards. They deserve everything they get. I might stop by when they have their liquidation sale.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:56 | 3144078 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

how can this guy know anything-he's not even a JIJ (juiced-in jew)?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:12 | 3144130 tango
tango's picture

He got his info from European dumbasses, you know those with funny last names.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:20 | 3144158 retiringteach
retiringteach's picture

fuck you-bet you're the poorest in your trailor park-or park bench

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:45 | 3144229 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I'll take that with a grain of salt from a guy who can't spell "trailer" correctly. And don't worry -bitch-my real estate taxes are more than you gross in a year.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:41 | 3144416 Itch
Itch's picture

Why do pricks like you keep bigging up the Jews? Im going to stop calling them jews and start calling them Super-jews, Omni-Jews...they are parting the proverbial fucking waves every time some prick opens their mouth. Do you know why they are on top of their occupations and vocations? Because they are neurotic and paranoid as fuck, they are trying to compensate for all manner of things, the main one is that people keep trying to burn them and fill their jewish lungs full of poisonous gas. People keep trying to blame them for they’re lives being shit...its a virtuous circle for jews; the more that pricks want to snuff them out in Auschwitzian wet dreams, the more they will put measures in place to see it never fucking happens! ergo, if you want Jews off the top spots….stop trying to imply that they should all be massacred. 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:48 | 3144432 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

souper joo

soup nazi

souper joo nazi

souper dooper joo-per pooper

souper dooper joo-per pooper scooper

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:00 | 3144482 Itch
Itch's picture

Didnt those lyrics start off as an ABBA song... but the A&R people had to cut the shit out of it.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:50 | 3144701 trav777
trav777's picture

nobody suggested they should be massacred.

And they were behaving this way LONG BEFORE the 1940s.

Of course, everyone else is to blame for the group's behavior.  They cry out in pain as they strike.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:55 | 3144731 Itch
Itch's picture

We all know what he solutions are, lets not pretend we don’t understand the herd and the implications arising from its arousal.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:07 | 3144795 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

We have been nauseatingly reminded about the fact that previous 'solutions' were done in poor taste & execution...

~~~

The problem is, therefore... The future... If, due to your 'explanation' as to their PARANOID behavior, they push that reaction envelope too far... & Keep stealing peoples money... I can all but assure you that they'll WALK THEMSELVES into the proverbial ovens of the future... It won't be me that put them there (because I'm trying to give fair warning here)... It'll be at the hands of people who are far less tolerant than myself...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:36 | 3144887 Itch
Itch's picture

Oh yeah, "it wont be you that puts them in the ovens", it wont be you that tells everyone they are stealing peoples money through methods they are too stupid to understand, and it wont be you that lights the proverbial match, it will be people far “less tolerant “of them stealing all the money. Have you fucking heard yourself lately? You're a stupid cunt of man.

"Poor taste"? What the fuck does that make you... nonchalantly blasé about extermination? You’re a stupid poisonous cunt, and you should close your mouth surgically.  

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 15:14 | 3145022 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Well ~ Since you asked... & for the record... I'm no more 'nonchalantly blasé' about the Holocaust than I am about the Holodomor...

~~~

As for closing my mouth surgically... I'll leave it up to deep thinkers like yourself to determine if THAT is the proper solution which will put humanity on the path to prosperity, equality, & freedom...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 15:29 | 3145082 Itch
Itch's picture

Has nothing to do with deep thinking, stop trying to turn this pathetic skirmish into some kind of pro/anti chin stroking debate. Heh, and when you talk about "prosperity, equality and freedom"(talk about muddying the waters?); yourself being a moaning yank, i would gladly concede you know next to nothing about atleast two of the three. Considering that the majority of the planet lives off a $1 a day, you can guess which two i'm hinting at. Freedom? equality? Freedom to kill and freedom to be $$$ more equal than others? Makes sense. There has never been a breeding ground more fertile for fascism. Youre a case in point.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 16:38 | 3145377 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

You asked me a direct question... You said:

""Poor taste"? What the fuck does that make you... nonchalantly blasé about extermination? You’re a stupid poisonous cunt, and you should close your mouth surgically."

~~~

I responded with a direct answer & now you're lamenting about a chin stroking debate...

You insist that my mouth should be closed surgically... [and then accuse me of fostering 'facism', making ME your personal poster boy]...

Ummmmm... Carry on [I suppose]... If you want to practice your punctuation techniques in the process, I'll be patient [& meanwhile use the pro-offered time to perfect my alliteration skills]..

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 17:56 | 3145604 Itch
Itch's picture

You're full of shit.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 16:32 | 3145354 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

.

Because they are neurotic and paranoid as fuck...

Maybe they have a guilty conscience?

 

Unfortunately, any deep-down discussion of [Central Banking] involves the Jewish question. We cannot honestly discuss the subject without revealing—and commenting on—the fact that the founders of [Central Banking] were Jewish. ... These are facts of history over which we have no control. But we are faced with the very serious problem of how to reveal these facts without being labeled—and treated—as "anti-Semites."

Behind it

 

 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 22:12 | 3146251 Itch
Itch's picture

"But we are faced with the very serious problem of how to reveal these facts without being labeled—and treated—as "anti-Semites."

 

What he really meant was that he was faced with the very trivial meathead problem of stating "there is no way to be anti-semite without sounding anti-semite". The same way as the clan try to be anti-nigger without sounding anti-nigger... its just so much of an oxymoronic argument. If truth be told, there cant actually be an argument between us because nothing is ever actually stated; its up to you to know the bounds of your jew hate, and up to me to figure where the bounds lie. I dont see that as an argument, I see that as a pain in the hole. 

 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:56 | 3144079 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"....and is about to drop the axe on the US as well where a "Daily 13" signal is imminent."

I was hoping for the Daily Double, but I will settle for this. 

The only way the Fed would let the market drop more than 10% is if they want it to drop to further some other agenda.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:14 | 3144140 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

The market need never drop again.

Until the wheels come off completely.

I believe this is a 100% unpredictable event.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:31 | 3144205 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"I believe this is a 100% unpredictable event."

The FED's job is to hide that event as best they can. Another job is to set up traps to rip the face off of any investor who bets on collapse.  If you want to win that bet you'll have to outlast the entire power structure.  If you are a trader, you won't make it.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:45 | 3144244 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

like K.Bass says- the govt's job is to instill confidence- most of which comes from lying.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:49 | 3144249 tickhound
tickhound's picture

The Fed's job is to justify and protect itself as an institutition, whatever the 'event.'

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 16:53 | 3145418 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

The Fed's job is to justify and protect itself as an institutition, whatever the 'event.'

Like any parasite, it has trouble finding the balance between thriving and killing off the host. 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:16 | 3144340 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

i'm still learn.. ing the hard way with my uvxy down over. 95%....last i checked .....( SVXY opposite probably best trade of 2012.)
But...
I was smart enough to join the criminals with a portfolio 80 percent in paper dollars equities for the last three years. I will now buy another house and move even more into the reserve currency when everything dumps....dollars,,, then i'll buy more silver.
If Chubut means anything to any of you....
paas... i will just go personally, it is close enough.

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 10:39 | 3157397 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Which one can argue why it will never happen, because the financial and corporate "elites" will literally scratch and claw and gnaw to keep their system intact.

What's the Jenga block that tips this thing over, though? 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:15 | 3144143 tango
tango's picture

We are a LONG way from any serious action.  Today, if the market fell 500 points you would see a tremendous RISE in treasuries as the perposterous "safe haven".  I know my financial advisor moves to treasuries when stocks falter (instead of cash) since "common wisdom" holds that they are a safe bet.   No, the only serious action will come when/if the bond market bubble finally pops. 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:34 | 3144211 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

When the market fails, they'll go full Soviet.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:08 | 3144517 viahj
viahj's picture

i believe it will be in scope and size that the world has never seen. 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:35 | 3144883 NeedtoSecede
NeedtoSecede's picture

You are probably right.  I just wish we could speed the collapse and get it over with already.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 15:19 | 3145034 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

When the market fails, they'll go full Soviet.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:28 | 3144194 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

e.g., if congress is debating the merits of a FED audit or the debt ceiling...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:54 | 3144268 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Yeah, something like that.

BTW whatever happened to any discussion of renewing the Fed's charter that supposedly comes due this year? Was this notion even based in fact and if so, is there any discussion out there at all on this subject? Anyone?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:49 | 3144933 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

http://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section4.htm

See section 4.  General Corporate Powers.  Said notion was unfortunately not based on fact.

"Second. To have succession after the approval of this Act until dissolved by Act of Congress or until forfeiture of franchise for violation of law."

One could correctly argue that they have violated enough laws to make forfeiture of franchise an open/shut case, but this would assume a purely hypothetical legal system that does not even come close to existing in practice.  

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:56 | 3144963 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

I believe that their charter was extended indefinately in 1935 or 38.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:58 | 3144081 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Well, coincidentially, I just finished my cup of coffee, and the grounds at the bottom of the cup spelled "DOOM", I'm selling everything this morning

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:05 | 3144109 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

You read that upside down (WOOD) or right to left (MOOD) or maybe both (DOOW)... DOOW?? DOOW??.. DOW?

 

DOW will go up like a WOOD despite the DOOM MOOD?

 

Make of it whatever you wish.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:16 | 3144145 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

Like a BOSS. er... SSOB? SOB? SOB!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:44 | 3144428 Itch
Itch's picture

Nah, he just wasn't wearing his glasses, it really said TWAT.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 15:44 | 3145166 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

DOW does not represent US stock market any more.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:59 | 3144083 PUD
PUD's picture

I challenge anyone anywhere to produce a single independent academic study showing the viability of any t/a anywhere at any time. It does not exist. T/A is mindless voodoo. In a world where all information of a "technical" nature can be accessed by everyone, any predicted outcomes become moot as any and every expected result gets front run thus rendering the expected moot. On the contrary there are a number of studies that have shown that there is absolutely no viability to any technical system...for the very common sense reason I just stated. Anything known by all becomes moot by virtue of that fact.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:01 | 3144097 trav777
trav777's picture

this isn't true.

In 2008, i was nailing, to the day, the bottoms of the waterfalls using technical indicators.  Tops, not so much, but for periods of time, reliable and accurate indicators do emerge. 

RSI is one that basically says this thing has run a bit too hard in a particular direction.  Doesn't mean it will reverse or collapse or spike or whatever, but it should slow down.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:08 | 3144118 PUD
PUD's picture

Confirmation bias...look it up. There is no viable t/a. It does not exist. Show me an independent study to the contrary and then explain why every human being doesn't use it to get rich.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:22 | 3144168 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

An anecdote isn't enough? Geez: are you not an American?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:15 | 3144832 Thisson
Thisson's picture

The theory you espouse is also known as the "semi strong" version of the efficient market hypothesis, and it is generally accepted as valid.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:27 | 3144186 tango
tango's picture

I was a day trader in the heydays.  One service I subscribed to began warning when NASDAQ flashed past 4300.   The warnings became more and more frantic as it rose and the day before NASDAQ hit its peak, a "Go to cash" emergency broadcast was sent twice.   Alas, many traders stayed and lost much of the gains they'd made. The smart ones bought longterm puts and retired to Tahiti.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:17 | 3144351 aerojet
aerojet's picture

LTCM taught us so much if anyone would bother to pay attention.  The smartest guys in the room and all that...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:19 | 3144152 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

It's more complex than that. Same chart means different things to different chartists. Also, in a market reined by Algos which themselves use key prices for sell, buy, stop... orders predicated on T/A, key prices become triggers to herd behaviors in the market and therefore self-fulfilling... Your point is however true for local T/A phenomona (e.g. January effect) which are self-defeating.

The relative advantage of T/A is in assessing conditional probabilities/scenarii and not absolute ones. You cannot really know if a resistence would be breached, but you can confidently know that if does, how strong the price movement would be... sometimes despite TPTB efforts in the short term.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:22 | 3144170 tango
tango's picture

TA is not an exact science but historical trends tend to repeat themselves.  If it was exact then "experts" would be mutli-billionaires instead of hawking their services to others who want the magic formula.   Many of the charts become apparent after the fact - like profiling. (Case in point - Head and shoulders vs double or triple top.)

A good technical analyst is right 75% of the time.   The problem we now have is the disconnect between old pricing values and the new ones (politics, rumor, FED action, Europe, Asia, etc).

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:28 | 3144191 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

ya think?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:18 | 3144353 aerojet
aerojet's picture

75% of the time it works every time!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:57 | 3144473 Itch
Itch's picture

You mean like the same academic studies that propose an efficient market? There are plenty of fields where simple binary outcomes cant be consistently upheld, take medicine or weather forecasting for example. Do we stop those too because we cant be right 100% of the time? You want ot turn down that cancer drug with only a 50/50 chance of curing your wife? You are dealing with real life, not a theoretical exercise. I suspect the reason you are so annoyed is because that you bought into the "one size fits all" illusion of technical trading, probably lost some money too. You should not have been so foolish to think your edge lay in intellectual property freely distributed to anyone that could read and use a keyboard.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:00 | 3144762 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

If you go to the casino and win 51% of the time you will soon own the place. That's what T/A gives you...a slight edge. Better than fundys these days...ask the 92% of hedge funds that underperformed this year, most of them are fundy.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:35 | 3144624 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

What a stupid post.  Show me a study that proves fundamental analysis works.

 

Fundy and tech are just tools.   It's up to investor interpretation in a dynamic environment on which combo of tools to use at any given time.

 

If you fuck up building your house, do you blame the hammer?

Not having T/A in your tool box leaves you unprepared for the markets in many situations.

 

Edit:  I'll add that another tool is needed.  Central bank/FED/Big wall st bank analysis is needed.   The markets are largely risk on risk off based on what a few self proclaimed elites in DC, central banks around the world, wall st. think.   The markets are far from orderly where f/a and t/a can help.  They can fly in the face of any analysis when so much money power is concentrated in too few hands.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:10 | 3144812 dirtbagger
dirtbagger's picture

PUD - right on.  These T/A models work perfectly until they don't.  It is amazing how smart we all are in hindsight and as armchair quarterbacks.   All of these financial pundits and newsletter writers are our modern day version of snake oil salesmen.   I can't believe why I keep reading these guys, must be a defect in my gene pool.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:59 | 3144084 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

its friday morning in america....

and that must mean that after again attempting to resume their completley logical rise thru resistance levels artificailly maintained by the money changers, the only 2 forms of real money are again assualted on the open in NY, the home of the phony paper futures markets...

i bring you the charts...

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

nice try you fucking bitch ass bankers.....

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:03 | 3144101 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I luvs me some subsidized PMs.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:03 | 3144102 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Maybe Goldman put out their double secret sell rec since the the last one failed.  Endless money printing and a sovereign debt crisis means BTFD.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:07 | 3144113 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

It wasn't 30 mins ago I noted the nice spike this morning.

Don't get mad, embrace their generocity

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:30 | 3144201 forwardho
forwardho's picture

Same attack we've come to know and hate.

Huge paper moves, It really pays to know the high and low. (or to cause)

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:59 | 3144085 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

An algo's diet consists of electrons, phony news and technicals. For them nothing else exists.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:00 | 3144090 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

No one who knows shit about TA says it is "almost" a sell.  LOL.  You either have the signal or you don't.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:13 | 3144133 retiringteach
retiringteach's picture

you have the balls to question demark about technical analysis? perhaps yopu should teach tom seaver to pitch

 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:22 | 3144172 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

It doesn't take something below the waist to take the otherside of the latest TV guru.  It takes something above the neckline.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:01 | 3144092 magne13
magne13's picture

I would agree with him if this was 1999 but in an era where CBanks have electonic ability to add zeros to any account without any accountability Demark is fighting a losing battle.  As ZH pointed out yesterday the banks have unlimited funds by which to ramp equities and they will, the only caveat is that the real burn rate around the globe from the elderly with no income, the unemployed with no income is probably somewhere in the single digit billions so as the FED adds and the Banks ramp the commoner is withdrawing for food and gas.  Consumerism is over and is replaced with central command, yet eventually true supply demand will show up and even the government will have to admit it can't print money fast enough to cover the bills.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:20 | 3144370 aerojet
aerojet's picture

But the brilliance of the whole thing is that when we finally do reach that point, the resulting war will more than conceal the crime.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:01 | 3144093 tooriskytoinvest
tooriskytoinvest's picture

Gary Shilling & Peter Schiff: Washington ‘Clown’ Set Up 42% Stock-Market Drop.  Many Other Cliffs Await The US Economy, With Bigger Risks. The Collapse Not Only Possible But IMMINENT.

http://investmentwatchblog.com/paul-b-farrell-peter-schiff-washington-clown-set-up-42-stock-market-drop-many-other-cliffs-await-the-us-economy-with-bigger-risks-are-coming-the-collapse-not-only-possible-b/

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:09 | 3144122 retiringteach
retiringteach's picture

i met gary shilling in 1965 - yes, 65- he was longterm bearish then and he never changed- 15 minutes of fame every 10 years!

 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:02 | 3144095 Darth Raider
Darth Raider's picture

"I sense something, a presence I've not felt since......."

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:07 | 3144100 muppet_master
muppet_master's picture

spx 1468 = DOUBLE TOP !!

1468 last week and yesterday....although yesterday's close = 1472.....it "violated that resistance"...now back @ 1468 !! LOL !!

just wait for below 1200 = cover shorts....b4 dead cat bounce...no i'm not a stupid crytal ball reader ("technician")

the only other double tops that I called b4 becuase  i'm ONLY 3% tech...... 50% fundamental, rest gut feeling:

1) spx double top on oct 2007..first one in 2000

2) gold double top sept 2011 @ $1900, first TOP a few weeks earlier. gold now @ $1670 = NICE !!! although will patiently wait for physical @ $300 = me go all in !!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:12 | 3144125 muppet_master
muppet_master's picture

when spx below 1200

will come back and repost here on ZH me covering b4 dead cat bounce..yes i know 'll get lots of thumbs downs from the bearish performance chasers....just like now i'm getting them from the bullish performance chasers....

from 4-2012 spx 1400+ to 6-4-12 spx 1275...i tried not to watch casino more than 10 minutes/day...= enjoy life....as i RODE my SHORTS....think about all other things stupid daytraders could of done !!! LOL !!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:19 | 3144362 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

i understand you, i don't understand everyone here.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:12 | 3144132 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Why do I feel I should what for the Mother of All Double Tops?:  1548.    Why?  Cause I've been early short for 3 years...that's why.

 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:30 | 3144196 muppet_master
muppet_master's picture

if you wait too long

you'll miss the TOP..= yesterday i called it at 1468..it was actually 1472....big deal..off by less than 0.00001% LOL !!

watched the video...the stupid tech...says wait for 1) spx 1474 close AND 2) blow-off to 1492 = missed the top !! too patient !!

if your too INpatient you'll miss good prices...(long or short)...if your too patient (you'll miss the bottom OR TOP).

i'm sure in 3-2009 some bulls were waiting for spx below 500

i'm sure in 10-2007 some bears were waiting for spx 1600

the answer:  scale in slowly at the extreme, betting against the current massive move...bc it will revert...to the mean !!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:04 | 3144106 Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

An analyst looking at fundamentals ? duh ! this is soooo 1999 !

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:05 | 3144108 beaker
beaker's picture

This is NOT someone who I would like to take the other side of his trade. Probably one of the best traders I've known in the last 35 years.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:07 | 3144110 DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

As I tend to say to market practitioners: “Show me your time frame”. It is easy to forecast the market without defining the time frame where the prediction is supposed to play out. Even a couple of up days could be labelled as a bull market, hence proving the market forecaster right. Same applies to bearish forecasts.

 

While the 13-day  exhaustion indicator may be a valid tool in the arsenal of the technical trader, from the clip, it seems that it is not a long term indicator. It seems to be good at signaling intermediate tops and bottoms. And this is OK, fully OK, provided the trader knows the time frame he is wrestling with.

As to the US, the primary trend of the market is bullish and the 13 days exhaustion may only mean that a secondary reaction is likely to come in the future. More about the primary bullish trend here:

 

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/01/dow-theory-special-issue-asse...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:14 | 3144139 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I use the 85 billion dollars a month indicator.  That way I don't get sidetracked by complete blithering idiots, who don't understand shit about economics, pushing their shit trades.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:07 | 3144112 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Soon.  Are we talking Cuck-koo clock soon?  Or geologic soon?

The first..you're rich.   The second you're broke. 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:08 | 3144114 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Geez, who gives a crap? Has anyone told this clown Stevie Cohen is in the process of winding down? In a world where technicals don't matter, fundamentals don't matter and if you think of closing an index down anywhere over .25 bps you get monkey-hammered by a Citadel-sourced massive buy program, why the HELL should I listen to this clown? System is fixed to go higher... nothing. else. matters. Here is another dip they give us today... BUY IT.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:09 | 3144123 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

This is the stupidest TA I have seen since Charles Nenner.  There is no magic number or magic formula.  Every time they roll out one of these tards he has some new snake oil system.  This is as stupid as Kaminski's sell call.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:10 | 3144126 ekm
ekm's picture

This is Tom Demark bullshit.

 

The Gov/Primary Dealers own everything all over the world.

Who the fuck is going to buy?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:16 | 3144147 Payable on Death
Payable on Death's picture

Exhaustion? Can you exhaust the Fed?

ekm, you've answered your own question. Gov/primary dealers will continue to buy.

B of J is buying individual names. US bailed out foreign banks. I have lengthened my view of the time it will take to crunch. While I have been short JBG's for about a year, I now believe I'll probably have to wait until the US exhausts its ability to bail out Japan.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:28 | 3144190 ekm
ekm's picture

They are no longer buying. They are bouncing the same stocks around.

 

This led to NYSE bankrupting and CME and Nasdaq going that route also.

What the real restriction is:  CRUDE OIL PRICE.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:14 | 3144136 Fiat agnostic
Fiat agnostic's picture

Fundamentals and technicals mean nothing when you have an omnipotent banking cartel that can do what they please. Except that one day their omnipotence will fade in the face of a new reality. And that day will be soon.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:14 | 3144138 mach777
mach777's picture

You overestimate the capability of big movers analysis. Indepedent analysis is, if not cutting edge, still ahead of the pack.

 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:15 | 3144142 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

Down arrow for being off topic, dont worry you'll see a lot more of this guy in the MSM, he might acheive fame by becoming the poster boy for gun control, he's just handed obama his Executive order.

"Hey everybody James Yeager of Tactical Response.

Stirred up a lot with the Pack Your Bags video so number 2 here.  Um, I was mad when I said it. Um, and uh probably allowed my mouth to overrun my logic. I don't retract any of my statements.  Now I have edited my video and I took off the end where I said I'm gonna start shooting people.  First off I don't need the hundreds of people that have emailed me to give me legal advice that aren't lawyers.  I didn't ask you for your fuckin opinion I didn't ask you to clog up my goddamn email.  I don't need anybody to ever email me or text me or call me or smoke signal me over anything that's going on on the internet because I don't care.

Now I realize there are unedited videos that people have stolen from me.  If you're one of the people that have stolen my video and put it on your site please take it down.  It's my property.  MY property.  Take it down.

But let's get to the reality people keep calling me I've had a flood of calls from alumni thousands of messages I mean its just overwhelming what's been going on today.  It's the 10th this is the day after.  It's be overwhelming visits the the store and all over the place asking me what they should do.  I don't know but I did tell you to load your mags, make sure your gun's clean, and pack a backpack.  If you haven't done that then don't call me and ask me what to do next because you haven't even done the first thing I asked you to do.

And people are satying stuff like it needed to be said but you shouldn't have said it.  Well look around, who else is going to say it.  Who else is gonna say it.  All you fuckin fair weather second amendment people that are telling me that I'm doing a fuckin disservice to the gun community by saying that I'm not going to stand for the tyranny, FUCK YOU.  Our country wasn't founded by fuckin fairweather pussies.  Either you're in or your out and if you're out don't call your self a goddamn second amendment advocate.  It fuckin pisses me off.  If you're not prepared to go all the way then you're not prepared to go anywhere.

Now.  I don't condone anybody doing anything rash.  I don't condone anybody committing any kind of felonies up to and including aggravated assaults or murders...unless it's necessary.  Right now it is not necessary.  And I understand that my video was very volatile.  You have no idea how many people that send me emails and text and calling me and were like right on.  My shit's clean, my bag's packed.  You tell me when and where.  You have no idea how quickly I accidentally assembled an army.  I assure you a quite formidable army.

But now's not the time. It's now time yet.  It is time to get ready.  Start working out.  Start stretching.  Start practicing. Start talking with your friends; coordinating on a local basis.  I don't really know what to say to do next.  I have a wait and see attitude about the whole thing.  But I stand fast with my message.  I have drawn my line in the sand.  Not one more inch."

 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:53 | 3144266 Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture

No, down arrow for tedious, wordy rambling. 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:11 | 3144323 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

He owns an assault rifle and just said on you tube that he is going to start killing people, which kindergarten will he choose to massacre first?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:19 | 3144154 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

"5 year high"...see, everything is fine...just fine.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:19 | 3144155 Frastric
Frastric's picture

807 is the magic number... As of yesterday the S&P was 807 points from its lows in early 2009. Can it increase beyond 807? Who knows? Is this the only number that matters, and are the next couple of years going to be bearish?

Perhaps yes?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:20 | 3144159 Ben Bermonkey
Ben Bermonkey's picture

TD indicators are 100% ridiculous. Mere BS! On Bloomberg you have about 35 such indicators. Choose your direction, then choose your indicator. I am a technician but Fibonacci, Ischimoku, Tom Demark and to a vast extent also Momentum indicators are useles.

Most people use too many indicators. It s the law of diminishing returns. Try to ignore what you think doesnt work. TD definetly doesnt work.

Do not try to have an opinion on everything all the time. Its in my experience very normal to not have clear signals in a lot of time.Try it the different way out: Pull approach, instead of push approach. look trough 1000 charts and select those which actually give clear signals where you have confidence in you prognosis above average.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:20 | 3144160 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

not a facebook fan but has anyone noticed it's quiet (no recent mention around ZH) ramp to nearly $32?  

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:33 | 3144209 muppet_master
muppet_master's picture

floopbook @ $32

well go chase you performance chasers....your blog name = frank n. beans...

when fb below $4.00 all u will end up is...beans !!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:38 | 3144223 adr
adr's picture

Because in the new normal confirmation that sales are horrible and people are leaving your site in droves is the most bullish news of all.

Facebook supossedly has world changing news to release upon the masses at CES. The tagline is: "This Changes Everything"

Is it the Facebook phone? Is it the Fuckerberg implantallowing direct ststus updates to and from your brain?

I don't know but it should be good for 80% upside to the stock, right?

Hype is a real product, right?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:26 | 3144181 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

You guys want to know what is really going to happen?  Either the DOW will go to 18,000 or the S&P will go to 1800.  Then you can worry.  Until then, turn off your TV.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:26 | 3144183 From Germany Wi...
From Germany With Love's picture

Sell the World
Make it a better place
For you and for me
And the entire human race

There are people dying
If you care enough for the living
Make a better place
For you and for me.

Now ev'rybody!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:28 | 3144189 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

No Bob Pisani no care

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:33 | 3144208 adr
adr's picture

I exist in the technical world. Everyone I interact with is based in the real business supply chain, buyers and sellers of real tangible goods. Our existence depends on production numbers, shipping, real sales, on hand inventory, reliable commodity costs, accounts payable and receivable.

The magic wand of Ben Bernanke doesn't help me at all. In fact for the past four years he has made business infinitely harder. How do you manage your input costs when you don't know what your base materials will cost even a week in advance? If some fuck atGoldman Sachs takes a position and ramps commodity futures, it may cost you 5-8% more to produce your product, but you needed to already write orders and give a price. When your margins have already been compressed, that Goldman Sachs trader may have just cost you all your profit.

I know more people that have just closed up shop in the past four years, than I know who are still in business. You simply can't operate a real business in this environment. The only success I see is those running an IPO scam. Most of those have crashed and burned a year after the IPO. But the banks and the "businessmen" made fortunes. Every time I hear the moniker "Serial Entrepreneur" I want to go mad. People say the guy is a great business man, I ask how many corporations has the guy ran, I get told lots maybe 12. I then ask how many are still in business, I then gut stunned looks.

The stock market may be points away from all time highs, everything should be booming. An incredible feat from March of 2009. So let's do a check. Is my house worth more at new highs than March 2009? No its worth 20% less. Is my business doing beter than March of 2009? No. Are more people in my extended family employed than March 2009? No. Has my standard of living gone up since 2009? Income flat, inflation doubled almost every input cost, so no.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:22 | 3144378 aerojet
aerojet's picture

Well said--I'm sooooo weary of the entrepreneur scam.  It's all horseshit.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:27 | 3144387 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

business is no longer a vertical economy, where raw materials go in one door and finished products go out the other, and management can oversee every aspect from up close. now you outsource labor for components, assembly at a third location, and drop ship to customers half way around the world using UPS and FedEx. management oversees everything from a laptop computer sitting in a airport.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:39 | 3144210 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

Start with JAPAN!!! maybe i am a new techincal indicator...its the JD stochastically momentum driven RSI retracement!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-07/japan-may-or-may-not-mint-quadr...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20981874

http://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-jpy-chart

 

hooligan2009
Vote up!

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Vote down!

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welcome to anothber facet of the new normal. we have already seen that central bank actions have reduced "money productivity" to close to zero. that is, incremental additions in money supply result in no increasein economic output. 

not content with the joint "central bank agreed" multi-trillion swap lines, the next round of geo political unrest will be sponsored by precisely this sort of action.

the Ministry of Finance in Japan will instruct the Bank of Japan to sell 500 hundred billion euros worth of yen (say 45 trillion yen) in order to depreciate the yen. it will do this at a rate that will shift the yen per euro fx rate by 0.5 big figues per day over a period of a few months. at the margin this will "cost" around 10 billion euros per day for 50 working days.

this will move the yen per euro rate from c. 110 - 115 all the way up to 145-155 and will also push the euro up against the dollar and the pound.

the US treasury will not call Japan a currency manipulator.

the strength of the euro will make european exports less competititve against the yen, throwing more europeans out of work whilst Asia and the US take more (radioactive) Japanese exports.

the injection of yen (via money creation by Japan) into the japanese economy will have the usual impact on the output of the japanese economy, i.e. zero. The money sloshing around in Japan will increase, leading to even less money productivity and probably below zero. 

 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:49 | 3144255 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

i bought a few thousand shares of mcp this morning 8.08.  8.39 so far and climbing steady.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:52 | 3144261 sunny
sunny's picture

Ooops

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:37 | 3144412 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

least you didn't buy it at 74.20 in april 2011!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:02 | 3144267 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Why?  Because technicals ALWAYS demand you sell high and over-extended.  Conveniently, all these stretched indicators reset at lower prices in time to buy again.  It is all a matter of unemotional discipline.  The biggest challenge I have is finding safe 60-day windows so that I don't get flagged as an "excessive trader".

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:09 | 3144521 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

I'M AN EXCESSIVE CONPULSIVE TRADER, HAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAH

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:20 | 3144843 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Uh, no.  I'm not going to let these fukkers steal my retirement money when the intermediate/long-term momentum indicators start to roll over.  Been there, done that.  There will be a new crop of 70 yr old Walmart greeters born on the next crash.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:55 | 3144270 Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture

Magic 13 Ball. 

PT Barnum was right. 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:56 | 3144271 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Everyone acts like they know whats going on next but in reality no one has a clue. 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:31 | 3144398 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

i know i don't! heh

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:14 | 3144335 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

what the techinicals are telling you is that there will soon be global banking intervention to  provide support for the markets. since you have all seen this play once before you know the drill (BTFD), - only when the indicators are below both their 50 and 200ma - and that you should buy the worst companies, because hyped business models and high debt levels are the cream that rises to the top. now go out there and make a forturne and kiss bernanke's picture when you take those juicy profits.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:32 | 3144402 amadeusb4
amadeusb4's picture

You mean like last year when DeMark called for a top near 1340 and it actually topped almost 2 months later and 80 points higher?? If the dollar continues to get destroyed like yesterday, then yes, we're going to see another 50 points tacked on here before it tops and DeMark will look silly yet again.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:35 | 3144407 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Fundamentals are irrelavant! Technical analysis is irrelevant. News is irrelevant! Risk is irrelevant! Even reality is irrelevant! Thanks to Bubbles Bernanke, we have PRINTED prosperity now!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:41 | 3144417 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

unicorns and pixies and, maybe, martians are relevant..and dust...gold dust 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:36 | 3144409 pezhead
pezhead's picture

"A buddist dedicates all his life and effort to get the illumination that allows him to feel the nothingness. That moment is often described as to the death of the self and therefore the moment in which you really understand the great nothingness in which all the things, time and events float eternally."

Once you realize the "nothingness" of the market --- you will be enlightened...

 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:42 | 3144415 Mr. Hudson
Mr. Hudson's picture

Stocks and commodities are going to crash except for food. Everything I am reading is that even though the money supply will get real tight this year, food prices will continue to rise. Is there any information that refutes this notion?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:00 | 3144483 jomama
jomama's picture

so nice to know that Bloomberg has my best interest in mind.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:04 | 3144497 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

Its all guesswork. Look at Roubini; a stopped clock and all that...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:11 | 3144532 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

i think roubini's clock just runs enough so its never right.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:18 | 3144556 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

COnvert your fiat paper into food producing small family farm and KISS (it).

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:18 | 3144558 jubber
jubber's picture

Well you just got killed shorting Spain & Italy today...

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