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US November Trade Deficit Soars To $48.7 Billion, Sub 1% Q4 GDP Revisions Imminent

Tyler Durden's picture




 

So much for the US trade renaissance. After posting a better than expected October trade deficit of ($42.1) billion, November saw the net importer that is the US revert to its old ways, with a massive deficit of some $48.7 billion - the worst number since April, far more than the $41.3 billion in expectations, which makes it the biggest miss to expectations since June 2010, driven by a $1.8 billion increase in exports to $182.6 billion, and a surge in imports which rose from $222.9 billion to $231.3 billion. Specifically "The October to November increase in imports of goods reflected increases in consumer goods ($4.6 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.5 billion); industrial supplies and materials ($1.3 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.6 billion); capital goods ($0.4 billion); and other goods ($0.1 billion)." And with this stark reminder that the US has to import the bulk of its products, something which a weak USD does nothing to help, expect a bevy of lower Q4 GDP revisions, as this number may push Q4 GDP in the sub-1% category.


From the release:

Goods by Geographic Area (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

  • The goods deficit with China decreased from $29.5 billion in October to $29.0 billion in November. Exports decreased $0.2 billion (primarily nonferrous metals and oilseeds and food oils) to $10.6 billion, while imports decreased $0.7 billion (primarily apparel and footwear) to $39.5 billion.
  • The goods deficit with Canada increased from $1.7 billion in October to $3.0 billion in November. Exports decreased $1.2 billion (primarily generators, passenger cars, and electric apparatus) to $24.7 billion, while imports increased $0.1 billion (primarily fuel oil) to $27.7 billion.
  • The goods deficit with Mexico increased from $4.4 billion in October to $4.9 billion in November. Exports decreased $1.6 billion (primarily petroleum products, computer accessories, and soybeans) to $18.8 billion, while imports decreased $1.1 billion (primarily crude oil, automotive parts and accessories, and computers) to $23.7 billion.
 

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Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:49 | 3143887 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Bull Thesis:  Demand for autos and stuff is high!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:56 | 3143904 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Alcohol sales are in fact very much up.  Long miller.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:02 | 3143909 economics9698
economics9698's picture

I can fix this for the BLS. 

Change Y = C + I + G + NX or consumption + investment + government spending (grabbing my nut sack right now) + (exports - imports).

 

To the new Obama GDP formula,

Y = C + I + G + (Imports - Exports)

Obamanomics, yes we can!

 

 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:08 | 3143937 AU5K
AU5K's picture

minor improvement.

Y = C + I + G + (Imports - Exports) + # trillion $ coins minted

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 15:30 | 3145091 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

You forgot something.

Y = [C + I + G + (Imports - Exports) + # trillion $ coins minted]^(hopefinity + beyond * yes we can)

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:01 | 3143913 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I'll drink to that.....and hold off buying a new computer until next year.

http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/technolog/holiday-pc-sales-slide-first-time-5-years-1B7931427

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:03 | 3143919 economics9698
economics9698's picture

I am into Steel Reserve these days, the true choice of hobos everywhere.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:10 | 3143945 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Which in a few years will describe 53% of the population...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 11:27 | 3144188 Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

Just don't get into copper wiring business, that's my turf!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:08 | 3143936 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

This is great news for the stock market along with low expectations, lowered guidance, high unemployment, uncontrolled spending. We are blessed to live in a fucked up economy.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:11 | 3143949 economics9698
economics9698's picture

lol.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:18 | 3143972 yogibear
yogibear's picture

It's a bullish thing. The more fucked up it is the better the market likes it.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:39 | 3144030 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

That pretty much sums it up. Stop looking for things to make sense.... we're way past that point.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:57 | 3143905 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

You read Reuters' article too?!  http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/11/us-trade-deficit-idUSBRE90A0LA...

The trade deficit unexpectedly grew in November, a drag on economic growth, although the gap's widening was driven by a surge in consumer goods imports, which gives a positive signal for consumer spending.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:05 | 3143918 knukles
knukles's picture

Root for the bread lines!
The only way to cure the trade deficit!

 

Oh wait a minute... under a mercantilist policy want exports to exceed imports to amass the means of exchange, gold, and so...

 

Yeah!  Root for the Fucking Bread Lines!

(running about nude flailing arms akimbo, singing Kumabayah, pecker flopping about.... Mrs. K chasing with meds and milk...)

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:09 | 3143927 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Better yet.....set it to rap. Just check your sense of shame at the door.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzspsovNvII

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:08 | 3143935 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Water Is Wet

Nah.  No need to read MSM or watch CNBS.  Everyone has known the script for at least 2 years now.  Everything is good.  Everything.  Every fucking thing is net positive for the economy.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:53 | 3144065 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Exactly. That's it.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:51 | 3143890 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

GDP should quickly join interest rate at 0%, and with equity indexes within 5% of all-time bubbletop highs...sounds like pure #WINNING!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:08 | 3143931 knukles
knukles's picture

These here ZIRP and deficits sure workin' good this time around. 

Yorp...

 

(maniacal Woody Woodpecker laughing)

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:50 | 3143893 electricgorilla
electricgorilla's picture

Import everyones tangible goods and export intangibles like inflation. God Bless America.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:57 | 3143903 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Export jobs.....and then send the unions to milk them......again.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:01 | 3143912 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It's just astounding to consider that right? Also if you don't like it don't look up. You may see something heading your way.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:23 | 3143984 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Wait until all those dollars come back. Inflation's already here (price the same but packaging keeps shrinking).It will get a whole lot worse.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:35 | 3144018 pods
pods's picture

This is such a crazy ride that I want to get off.  I think I am waaaaaay to far down the rabbit hole.

In today's false reality, increasing the yellow portion is good, as it means we have exported more inflation.

The optimum plan would be to have zero exports in this upside down world!

Beggar (bugger) thy world neighbor.

pods

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:52 | 3143896 midtowng
midtowng's picture

It's OK because if we are importing more it means consumers are spending more. And we all know that wealth comes from people spending money they don't have.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:06 | 3143928 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

A large trade deficit does not make a nation rich...I agree. But the fact that the USA can sustain such a massive "imbalance" is a tribute to the terrifying power of Wall Street and it's media cohorts. The President is right to do whatever he can to keep pushing for the USA to be a net producer nation...amazingly even with 500 billion a year in defense spending "it's still not enough to turn the tide." without a doubt bailouts for the "real estate lobby" which is the ultimate form of conspicuous consumption is not "the best path to prosperity." we shall see given the already collapsed consumption numbers (gasoline usage at 1996 levels??!!!) if the USA truly does find a way to "earn it's way through this" as Wall Street demands. I'm sure just printing, devaluing and debauching has nothing to do with any of this of course...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:54 | 3143900 cosmyccowboy
cosmyccowboy's picture

  it's just all the fudged numbers from october for our dear leaders re election campaign coming back into proper accounting!!!! you can only LIE about math for so long....

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:13 | 3143956 HD
HD's picture

"you can only LIE about math for so long...."

 Only a few decades. We lie good. We lie you long time.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:14 | 3143957 HD
HD's picture

Double posted for some reason. Move along.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 09:55 | 3143902 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This numbers are astounding. I think I will go ahead and short the market and buy the vix because this must mean a crash is coming.

Sincerely,

a guy about to lose money

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:05 | 3143922 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

LOL! Exactly. While I agree with the story, it just doesn't matter anymore. The market is beyond caring about facts... it's all Fed. Facts are twisted and not reported. Just get long "stuff"

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:04 | 3143921 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

importing and exporting deflation.  USA! USA! USA!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:07 | 3143933 Alpha Dog Food
Alpha Dog Food's picture

 

 

If you find this too depressing guys, come on over to see me at http://alpha-dog-food.com where we can discuss 'cooking' the books and these figures - or even figures of a different kind :-)

 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:07 | 3143934 Alpha Dog Food
Alpha Dog Food's picture

 

 

If you find this too depressing guys, come on over to see me at http://alpha-dog-food.com where we can discuss 'cooking' the books and these figures - or even figures of a different kind :-)

 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:10 | 3143944 Alpha Dog Food
Alpha Dog Food's picture

 

SO I need to buy.... or is it sell?

 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:16 | 3143962 DollarDive
DollarDive's picture

When the 7per EMA crosses the 21 period EMA and MACD is greater than negative one and the 14 3 3 slow stochastics is at the 75% level and the money flow index is declining, but the moving average of the VWAP is greater than the weekly moving average of VWAP and the price is testing the 10 day VAL but is close to yesterdays POC.....

then  Lordy Lord .....  IT"S A BUY !!!!

ibbbit ibbbbit ibbbity ibbbit  "And that's All Folks"

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:12 | 3143952 DollarDive
DollarDive's picture

.... Yeah but look at how well Canada's Trade Deficit is doing..... don't forget their "brave" (ha ha) fiscal and monetary policy is a model for the world.  

 

Yuuup  that was a complete line of bullshit.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:15 | 3143961 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Given that:

GDP = N + I + G + NX

Where NX is net exports

And given that the trade deficit is rising, implying that NX is falling, it is a fairly safe assumption that GDP will be adversely affected, especially since we have learned in recent months that N (conusmer spending) and I (investment) are also contracting. The only thing expanding in that formula is G -- government. And that means still more DEBT!

I see a catastrophe coming!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:20 | 3143975 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Yes it is, 8.5% of the GDP was borrowed money last time I checked, but revisions coming.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:18 | 3143969 sablya
sablya's picture

So when consumers buy it's bad for GDP now?? 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:22 | 3143983 economics9698
economics9698's picture

According to the formula, Y = C + I + G + NX, any consumption is good and adds but the reality is if you borrow money from china and buy Chinese goods what have you accomplished?

We need more savings and investment which means higher interest rates to reward savers but since the Fed is leveraged 52-1 with low interest long term debt that is not going to happen.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:30 | 3144007 sablya
sablya's picture

If the consumption of goods is generally higher then the consumption of US goods is probably higher as well. Since that accounts for 70% of GDP this has to be seen as generally positive.  The import/export component is not nearly as significant as that consideration.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:23 | 3143985 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

The first thing thet pops into my head is "Who's buying all this shit?!"  Then I realize that the bulk of the consumers in this country are completely unaware of how bad things are because they can still afford the glowing box of 'reality' in their living room(even though the room/house is underwater or being foreclosed) which speaks to their bliss.  And there's a huge segment of the same population using ObamaBux to hold back the rising tide of crap coming their way. Sooner or later though, that tide's going to rise faster than the EBT levy can be stacked and then it's going to make Katrina look like a day in a water park with the Swedish Bikini Team. Damn, only one cup o' coffee down and I'm already getting depressed...I think I'm gonna go outside and shoot something.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:31 | 3144008 john_connor
john_connor's picture

Analysis of the trade deficit and GDP is so 2007.

 

Really we should just look at deposit over loans in finer resolution and cash settlement days for the primary dealers.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:42 | 3144039 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

As usual, John Connor talking sense.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:41 | 3144037 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

How can anyone be at all surprised at this when this country re-elected the man who brought us complete imbalance in everything for the past 4 years?  Did you think this would self correct by Bernanke knocking the dollar down?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 10:49 | 3144059 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

These (the) policy has been unbroken and unchanging for at least 40 years you dupe.

 

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