US Q4 GDP: From 2.5% To Sub 1% in Under Six Months

The previously noted surge in the US trade deficit may or may not be due to the iPhone (which either leads to a rise or fall in GDP, depending on which "strategist" is goalseeking their excel model to reality), but the result is clear: Q4 GDP just got slammed. Below is a summary of the Wall Street penguins all of whom had no choice but to revise their Q4 GDPs far lower.

• Goldman Sachs: 1.8% to 1.3%
• JPM: 1.5% to 0.8%
• RBS: 1.5% to 0.7%
• Nomura: 2% to 1.3%
• Last, and least, Deutche Bank's Joe Lavorgna: unchanged at 1.3%

Look forward to hope being forced to surge even more to offset for this cut by nearly 50% ot the consensus Q4 GDP estimate of 1.5% prior to today. And while we wait for Bloomberg to compile today's massive downward revision to economic growth, this is how Q4 GDP tracking estimates looked like in the past 6 months before today's downward revision which will take the consensus line to 1% or under.

Comments

[michiganmaven]

dont worry 2013 will be a record expansion year !!! /sarc

[The Juggernaut]

Its the iPhone, damnit!  Haven't you learn ANYthing?!?!

[knukles]

And the flu bug

[zaphod]

Just imagine how bad it would be if Obama wasn't printing $2T a year in funny money and debt. 

[Snakeeyes]

Why doesn't Krugman just recommend that the Fed mint a trillion dollar coin? Oh, even Krugman realizes that it won't work.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/01/11/more-housing-angst-us...

[dlmaniac]

Just issue an executive order to ban the GDP from going under 2% (or whatever # they feel like) and be done with it.

[Water Is Wet]

@Tyler,

The Fed projected 1.7 - 1.8% GDP growth for 2012 at the December meeting.  Are they going to be on the high side also?

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20121212.pdf

Answering my own question:  If Q4 is 0.8%, then 2012 GDP is 1.8%.  But GDP is worthless so who cares.

[Dawg37]

+1000 hilarious

[FL_Conservative]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[mayhem_korner]

Indeed.  I'm expecting double-digit growth in SNAP recipients and the Fed Balance sheet.

[slaughterer]

Who needs GDP when you got QE?

Operation - RESULTS 
Operation Date: 01/11/2013 
Operation Type: Outright Coupon Purchase 
Release Time: 10:15 AM 
Close Time: 11:00 AM 
Settlement Date: 01/14/2013 
Maturity/Call Date Range: 10/31/2017 - 09/30/2018 

Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $5,562 
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $21,446 

[azzhatter]

Growth baby will solve all our problems

[Dr. Richard Head]

Money supply is like a dick.  Both of them growing can lead to a whole slew of problems, baby!

[alangreedspank]

Haha, good one! +1

(My avatar is trying to grow its money supply)

[The Juggernaut]

Dr. Richard Head: ...or solutions!

[goldfish1]

Take the QE and invest in USA.

How difficult can this be to comprehend and implement?

[El Oregonian]

"Hope and Chan...er... "Hope and EBT's"!!!

[This just in]

THat's the stairs you can take if you don't want to go over the cliff.

[Dr. Richard Head]

So with true CPI somewhere between 9-10%, that means the recession is on like Donkey Kong.

[Raymond Reason]

Government bureaucracy and health care are part of GDP, so making people sick and hiring people to do it would fix the problem. 

[ArkansasAngie]

Maybe they'll start using flu to adjust U6

[Seasmoke]

Consume you unpatriotic motherfuckers.......CONSUME !

[Nothing To See Here]

Those who don't will soon be categorized as "domestic terrorists", so act accordingly...

[alangreedspank]

Don't worry. The Fed is working overtime to try and make it expensive to save money!

[Bad Attitude]

I really want to consume, but my favorite gun store is out of stock of everything I want - no useful guns, no useful ammo.

[PAWNMAN]

Unfortunately, these numbers came out a quarter too late. 4 more years of the community organizer.

[alangreedspank]

At least the inevitable collapse won't be blamed on libertarians (because according to libtards, GOP = libertarians).

[inevitablecollapse]

appreciate the name drop :) & GOP for damn sure doesn't = libertarian!

[El Oregonian]

Hopefully, he'll be impeached this time around.

[NoClueSneaker]

B(ar)rack Swan .

[rlouis]

Fed is ready: Nominal GDP targeting

[knukles]

< 6.5% target for U
Platinum coins
Nominal GDP targeting (aka higher inflation)

Implies that the artificial suppression should be raised as back in 2008 when the fears were of evil Deflation.... and the pm's had a wonderful rally.

^{(Weren't they optimistic in the last minutes?)}

[Ness.]

Well this explains the current ramp is stawks.

It's all bullish.

[Cognitive Dissonance]

Looks like a slippery slope to me.

<Time to make the donuts. - Bernanke>

[Dr. Engali]

MMMMM...donuttts

~ Homer Simpson~

[buzzsaw99]

newspeak: Consumption = Production

[knukles]

Revenue=Taxes
Spending=Investment
War=Peace
Freedom=Tyranny
Equality=Redistribution

[FrankDrakman]

FREEDOM = SLAVERY

IGNORANCE = STRENGTH

- from Eric Blair's numerical opus

[Rainman]

bbbut...there was a hurricane and other unexpected stuff

[adr]

A 400lb welfare queen in a Rascal duked her pants in a NYC Toys R Us before Christmas, fully explaining Toys R Us's disappointing retail sales for the holiday.

[agent default]

So GDP  is down,which means the probability of more QE is up, hence Gold and Silver waterfall.  Fair and efficient markets at work right here.

[Nothing To See Here]

This is soooooo 2012. Welcome to 2013 : GDP is down, which means the probability of more QE is up, which means banks are up, which means the probability for further QE is down, which means gold is down...

Now back to my slavemasters.

[francis_sawyer]

Why couldn't I have hired these fuckers to do my report cards for me in school?

[adr]

Because you were too busy beating them up?

[francis_sawyer]

Oh yeah ~ I forgot that I had them stuffed in the locker...

[malikai]

Pretty cute. People should be running into the only safe haven left on this planet, but I'm surprised by nothing anymore.

http://blog.quantsig.net/2013/01/11/gold-closure/

[JackT]

It's because Japan keeps using all of the zeros with their QE!  We need more zeros!  Maybe we can rope in an asteroid or comet and extract them?

[booboo]

BREAKING NEWS!!! BLOOMBERG NEWS REPORTS THE NEW TREASURY SEC TO HAND THE FEDERAL RESERVE A BOX OF PLATINUM CHEERIOS FOR FEDERAL RESERVE ZERO'S.

[Nothing To See Here]

And after hearing these news, Paul Krugman pops the champagne!

[adr]

So if the economy is contracting, and nobody is buying anything, the Fed can just lower rates and flood the market with liquidity, right?