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US Q4 GDP: From 2.5% To Sub 1% in Under Six Months

Tyler Durden's picture


The previously noted surge in the US trade deficit may or may not be due to the iPhone (which either leads to a rise or fall in GDP, depending on which "strategist" is goalseeking their excel model to reality), but the result is clear: Q4 GDP just got slammed. Below is a summary of the Wall Street penguins all of whom had no choice but to revise their Q4 GDPs far lower.

  • Goldman Sachs: 1.8% to 1.3%
  • JPM: 1.5% to 0.8%
  • RBS: 1.5% to 0.7%
  • Nomura: 2% to 1.3%
  • Last, and least, Deutche Bank's Joe Lavorgna: unchanged at 1.3%

Look forward to hope being forced to surge even more to offset for this cut by nearly 50% ot the consensus Q4 GDP estimate of 1.5% prior to today. And while we wait for Bloomberg to compile today's massive downward revision to economic growth, this is how Q4 GDP tracking estimates looked like in the past 6 months before today's downward revision which will take the consensus line to 1% or under.




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Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:53 | 3144456 michiganmaven
michiganmaven's picture

dont worry 2013 will be a record expansion year !!! /sarc

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:04 | 3144493 The Juggernaut
The Juggernaut's picture

Its the iPhone, damnit!  Haven't you learn ANYthing?!?!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:18 | 3144562 knukles
knukles's picture

And the flu bug

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:30 | 3144622 zaphod
zaphod's picture

Just imagine how bad it would be if Obama wasn't printing $2T a year in funny money and debt. 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:40 | 3144664 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Why doesn't Krugman just recommend that the Fed mint a trillion dollar coin? Oh, even Krugman realizes that it won't work.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 15:03 | 3144983 dlmaniac
dlmaniac's picture

Just issue an executive order to ban the GDP from going under 2% (or whatever # they feel like) and be done with it.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 16:15 | 3145220 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture


The Fed projected 1.7 - 1.8% GDP growth for 2012 at the December meeting.  Are they going to be on the high side also?

Answering my own question:  If Q4 is 0.8%, then 2012 GDP is 1.8%.  But GDP is worthless so who cares.

Sat, 01/12/2013 - 11:05 | 3146947 Dawg37
Dawg37's picture

+1000 hilarious

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 20:02 | 3144656 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture


Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:27 | 3144605 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Indeed.  I'm expecting double-digit growth in SNAP recipients and the Fed Balance sheet.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:18 | 3144836 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Who needs GDP when you got QE?

Operation - RESULTS 
Operation Date: 01/11/2013 
Operation Type: Outright Coupon Purchase 
Release Time: 10:15 AM 
Close Time: 11:00 AM 
Settlement Date: 01/14/2013 
Maturity/Call Date Range: 10/31/2017 - 09/30/2018 

Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $5,562 
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $21,446 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:54 | 3144459 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Growth baby will solve all our problems

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:56 | 3144467 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Money supply is like a dick.  Both of them growing can lead to a whole slew of problems, baby!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:15 | 3144545 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

Haha, good one! +1

(My avatar is trying to grow its money supply)

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:15 | 3144550 The Juggernaut
The Juggernaut's picture

Dr. Richard Head: ...or solutions!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:07 | 3144509 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Take the QE and invest in USA.

How difficult can this be to comprehend and implement?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:17 | 3144554 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

"Hope and "Hope and EBT's"!!!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:55 | 3144462 This just in
This just in's picture

THat's the stairs you can take if you don't want to go over the cliff.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:55 | 3144464 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

So with true CPI somewhere between 9-10%, that means the recession is on like Donkey Kong.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:09 | 3144524 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture


Government bureaucracy and health care are part of GDP, so making people sick and hiring people to do it would fix the problem. 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:28 | 3144610 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Maybe they'll start using flu to adjust U6

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:56 | 3144469 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Consume you unpatriotic motherfuckers.......CONSUME !

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:13 | 3144542 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

Those who don't will soon be categorized as "domestic terrorists", so act accordingly...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:16 | 3144552 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

Don't worry. The Fed is working overtime to try and make it expensive to save money!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:05 | 3144789 Bad Attitude
Bad Attitude's picture

I really want to consume, but my favorite gun store is out of stock of everything I want - no useful guns, no useful ammo.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:56 | 3144470 PAWNMAN
PAWNMAN's picture

Unfortunately, these numbers came out a quarter too late. 4 more years of the community organizer.


Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:17 | 3144559 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

At least the inevitable collapse won't be blamed on libertarians (because according to libtards, GOP = libertarians).

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:37 | 3144650 inevitablecollapse
inevitablecollapse's picture

appreciate the name drop :) & GOP for damn sure doesn't = libertarian!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:20 | 3144566 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Hopefully, he'll be impeached this time around.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:41 | 3144899 NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

B(ar)rack Swan .

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:57 | 3144472 rlouis
rlouis's picture

Fed is ready: Nominal GDP targeting

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:23 | 3144578 knukles
knukles's picture

< 6.5% target for U
Platinum coins
Nominal GDP targeting (aka higher inflation)

Implies that the artificial suppression should be raised as back in 2008 when the fears were of evil Deflation.... and the pm's had a wonderful rally.


(Weren't they optimistic in the last minutes?)

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:58 | 3144475 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Well this explains the current ramp is stawks.


It's all bullish.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:58 | 3144479 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Looks like a slippery slope to me.

<Time to make the donuts. - Bernanke>

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:09 | 3144526 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture


~ Homer Simpson~


Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:01 | 3144486 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

newspeak: Consumption = Production

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:24 | 3144586 knukles
knukles's picture


Fri, 01/11/2013 - 15:54 | 3145202 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture



- from Eric Blair's numerical opus

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:01 | 3144487 Rainman
Rainman's picture

bbbut...there was a hurricane and other unexpected stuff

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:11 | 3144531 adr
adr's picture

A 400lb welfare queen in a Rascal duked her pants in a NYC Toys R Us before Christmas, fully explaining Toys R Us's disappointing retail sales for the holiday.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:03 | 3144492 agent default
agent default's picture

So GDP  is down,which means the probability of more QE is up, hence Gold and Silver waterfall.  Fair and efficient markets at work right here.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:16 | 3144553 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

This is soooooo 2012. Welcome to 2013 : GDP is down, which means the probability of more QE is up, which means banks are up, which means the probability for further QE is down, which means gold is down...

Now back to my slavemasters.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:03 | 3144494 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Why couldn't I have hired these fuckers to do my report cards for me in school?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:09 | 3144518 adr
adr's picture

Because you were too busy beating them up?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:35 | 3144641 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Oh yeah ~ I forgot that I had them stuffed in the locker...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:05 | 3144501 malikai
malikai's picture

Pretty cute. People should be running into the only safe haven left on this planet, but I'm surprised by nothing anymore.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:07 | 3144510 JackT
JackT's picture

It's because Japan keeps using all of the zeros with their QE!  We need more zeros!  Maybe we can rope in an asteroid or comet and extract them?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:22 | 3144572 booboo
booboo's picture


Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:54 | 3144727 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

And after hearing these news, Paul Krugman pops the champagne!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:08 | 3144514 adr
adr's picture

So if the economy is contracting, and nobody is buying anything, the Fed can just lower rates and flood the market with liquidity, right?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:08 | 3144515 pods
pods's picture

Maybe we should start having them predict our deficit?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:09 | 3144522 gould's fisker
gould&#039;s fisker's picture

After closely following this past election cycle this is just shocking. Uncle Joe where are you and your 500K monthly job growth and robust economy?  It's almost like you and your clerks have been making it up all along.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:09 | 3144525 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Every government in the world needs to reduce deficit spending yet wall street still says global growth of 2% for 2013.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:16 | 3144551 adr
adr's picture

What I have found is that the non EBT crowd has figured out that if they don't buy food at full price and wait a week, they will be able to buy meat and other perishable goods at half price.

The same with just about everything else. If you wait until after Christmas to buy for next year, you can get all your kids presents for 50% off.

Wall Street can push prices as high as they want. In the end the consumer still has to choose to pay. 2013 will see the tapped out consumer pretty much refuse to buy just about everything.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:45 | 3144685 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Just bought a Bosch compound mitre saw dbl bvl for 50% off on Amazon, best one out there for my money.

btw my wife says I'm so tight only dogs can hear me , well you get it...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:12 | 3144537 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture


Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:12 | 3144538 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Best recovery 23 trillion dollars can't buy.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:06 | 3144790 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

$23 trillion dollars, and all I got was this 'FUCK U BERNANK' T-shirt!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:13 | 3144540 JR
JR's picture

"And while we wait for Bloomberg…"

What’s needed is financial information that is less influenced by the banker-controlled financial press.

The sources for say Frontrunning today, much as in the past, are almost exclusively, as today, WSJ, BBG, Reuters, and FT.  We are being propagandized by the financial media as to what the facts are and the future as- hoped-for-and-envisioned by the international bankers and their cohorts.

Not only do they select the stories, sift the quotes, and cherry pick the facts, but when the facts aren’t there they create them. And always they put the banker spin on every day’s developments.

Example: When unemployment claims are slightly higher than “expected,” they are reported as "steady improvement" in the employment situation. But when they are “less than expected,” they are reported as, as they were today, as “uneven.”

The bottom line: these are lies.

The Bloomberg Monopoly is so out of control, and with the mayor’s extreme tyrannical viewpoint, how could Bloomberg possibly be believed in its reports and facts and figures on economic news?

Thank goodness we have Zero Hedge that steers a truthful path through these many biased reports.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:16 | 3144549 tooriskytoinvest
tooriskytoinvest's picture

Major Recession in 2013: US November Trade Deficit Soars To $48.7 Billion, Downward Q1 GDP Revisions Imminent!!! Wells Fargo And Morgan Stanley Layoff Thousands Ahead of Q4 Earning Reports. Inflation Running at 7% or Higher And  The Market Is At Its Most Risk-On Level Since Just Before The Stock Market Crash That Began In 2007's Third Quarter.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:18 | 3144557 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Ohh looky the emancipation soon to be civil war president is going to deliver the state of the union address on Lincoln's birthday. Isn't the branding sweet?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:25 | 3144593 pine_marten
pine_marten's picture

I'd rather have a root canal than listen to any drivel from that mealy mouthed monster.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:07 | 3144799 alt.hedge
alt.hedge's picture

Maybe he should have choosen Ground Hog day.

It would have been an ironic juxtaposition of events.


One involves a meaningless ritual in which we look to an

insignificant creature of little intelligence for prognostication.


The other involves a groundhog.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:22 | 3144568 poor fella
poor fella's picture


'Professor' Siegel just told CNBS that the markets will do better this year than last, with the S&P reaching all time highs, and multiples expanding to 17-18!     ?      so I'm cornfused..   

either all is well, or it's time for The Governmentisimo to send every American a moped.. One of the ones with pedals so it can be riden even when the owner can't afford half a tank of gas. 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:22 | 3144570 Caracalla
Caracalla's picture

Everyone was here yesterday screaming "BTFD" and pounding the table to get people to buy stocks.  Where did all of these uber-bulls go today???

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:13 | 3144822 Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

We're taking the day off with our profits.  Good luck getting back to even, bears.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:43 | 3144905 Caracalla
Caracalla's picture

Even Cramer said this morning that he now doubts stocks "have much more room to run"  When a perma-bull like Cramer is questioning the rally, you know it's in trouble.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:23 | 3144581 casaananda
casaananda's picture

How depressing. Gold gets repeatedly slammed down. 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:33 | 3144631 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



The intensity of the downward manipulation has increased ever since the 1800 handle back a few months.  That's FEAR personified.  The CBs have got to be worried the lid is going to blow...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:32 | 3144626 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



OT...when are all the folks who think their taxes aren't going up going to get their first paycheck of the year? 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:41 | 3144667 knukles
knukles's picture

on the 15th or 30th

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:38 | 3144660 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

That sure is a good sign for the US housing market. NOT. Rising taxes, dropping wage income, high unemployment rates for first time homebuyers. OMG!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:41 | 3144661 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

GDP falling dramatically. Markets should ramp because the outlook is good a couple of years from now.

ZH showed a 200 billion dollar surplus at WF this a.m. JP Morgan has a 450 billion dollar Fed fueled capital surplus. Why is anyone surprised that the bankers use excess capital to suppress commodities or buy oil. 

It's a fucking economic- Matrix style- freak show. Markets completely detached from reality. Sooner or later people get tired of seeing re-runs Mr Anderson.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:50 | 3144704 balz
balz's picture

Intinite growth in a finite world is impossible. Now is the time to understand that. When adjusted for REAL inflation, we're in negative GDP territory since 2002, with the exception of two quarters in 2004.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:51 | 3144716 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

And as of this moment, the Dow Jones is actually up.


Let's see.  GDP in 2012 less than 1%, but Dow Jones up over 10%.  If GDP goes negative in 2013, the Dow Jones should.....uh.....crash.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 15:04 | 3144987 jim249
jim249's picture

No, the Dow Jones gains 20 per cent.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:35 | 3144876 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Damn, how do you get access to some of these beta BBerg functions?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:38 | 3144891 loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

Now THAT is the change we can believe in!!  Load up on guns, gold and KY jelly.  here comes sharia law, via Obunga, the new Papa Doc.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:45 | 3144914 Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture



Take that you central planning moronic schmucks! You perversely historicaly ignorant fools!


You demented, dimwitted, dingbatted evil assholes!



Ahhhhhhh. There. Thats better. Looks like I can lay off the morphine tonight.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 15:05 | 3144992 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I started cutting back 3 years ago as my personal protest to starve the beast. I'm always amazed at how cheaply I can get by. I have cut so much fat out of my budget and now I view it as a sport to see how little I can spend every month. No Iproducts, shop at discount retailers, clip a lot of coupons, bought a 40+ mpg car so no gasoline expenses to think of, shop at dollar tree for a lot of essentials. I have plenty of money but fuck every one of these bastards, I will not spend it.(except a lot shiny coins and some unshiny lead)

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 22:12 | 3146252 Tourist2008
Tourist2008's picture

How would the economy look if everyone, including the government just spent what they earned or less?

Or is it too scary to calculate ?


Fri, 01/11/2013 - 15:06 | 3145001 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

You got exactly what you voted for.  Failure and lies!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 15:13 | 3145020 Caracalla
Caracalla's picture

With today's action, it looks like the bears might be taking control of the board again.  Will have to wait until next week to know for sure.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 15:50 | 3145184 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

GDP will be negative; this is a recession.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 16:24 | 3145328 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

GDP will be whatever they want it to be.  All numbers are dependant on the amount of money printed and debt created.  FORWARD!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 18:02 | 3145620 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

I blame the Mayans

Sat, 01/12/2013 - 03:23 | 3146687 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Wow that's great for stocks. Less money for the economy means more for the markets. YeeeeHaaaa!

Sun, 01/13/2013 - 05:39 | 3148504 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Barclays: 2.0% to 1.3%
Morgan Stanley: 1.5% to 0.7%
Pierpont Securities: 1.5% to 0.5%

Goldman Sachs: 1.8% to 1.3%
JPM: 1.5% to 0.8%
RBS: 1.5% to 0.7%
Nomura: 2% to 1.3%
Deutche Bank's unchanged at 1.3%

GDP forecasts cut on sharply wider trade deficit


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