US Q4 GDP: From 2.5% To Sub 1% in Under Six Months

Tyler Durden's picture

The previously noted surge in the US trade deficit may or may not be due to the iPhone (which either leads to a rise or fall in GDP, depending on which "strategist" is goalseeking their excel model to reality), but the result is clear: Q4 GDP just got slammed. Below is a summary of the Wall Street penguins all of whom had no choice but to revise their Q4 GDPs far lower.

  • Goldman Sachs: 1.8% to 1.3%
  • JPM: 1.5% to 0.8%
  • RBS: 1.5% to 0.7%
  • Nomura: 2% to 1.3%
  • Last, and least, Deutche Bank's Joe Lavorgna: unchanged at 1.3%

Look forward to hope being forced to surge even more to offset for this cut by nearly 50% ot the consensus Q4 GDP estimate of 1.5% prior to today. And while we wait for Bloomberg to compile today's massive downward revision to economic growth, this is how Q4 GDP tracking estimates looked like in the past 6 months before today's downward revision which will take the consensus line to 1% or under.



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michiganmaven's picture

dont worry 2013 will be a record expansion year !!! /sarc

The Juggernaut's picture

Its the iPhone, damnit!  Haven't you learn ANYthing?!?!

zaphod's picture

Just imagine how bad it would be if Obama wasn't printing $2T a year in funny money and debt. 

Snakeeyes's picture

Why doesn't Krugman just recommend that the Fed mint a trillion dollar coin? Oh, even Krugman realizes that it won't work.

dlmaniac's picture

Just issue an executive order to ban the GDP from going under 2% (or whatever # they feel like) and be done with it.

Water Is Wet's picture


The Fed projected 1.7 - 1.8% GDP growth for 2012 at the December meeting.  Are they going to be on the high side also?

Answering my own question:  If Q4 is 0.8%, then 2012 GDP is 1.8%.  But GDP is worthless so who cares.

mayhem_korner's picture



Indeed.  I'm expecting double-digit growth in SNAP recipients and the Fed Balance sheet.

slaughterer's picture

Who needs GDP when you got QE?

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Release Time: 10:15 AM 
Close Time: 11:00 AM 
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azzhatter's picture

Growth baby will solve all our problems

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Money supply is like a dick.  Both of them growing can lead to a whole slew of problems, baby!

alangreedspank's picture

Haha, good one! +1

(My avatar is trying to grow its money supply)

goldfish1's picture

Take the QE and invest in USA.

How difficult can this be to comprehend and implement?

El Oregonian's picture

"Hope and "Hope and EBT's"!!!

This just in's picture

THat's the stairs you can take if you don't want to go over the cliff.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

So with true CPI somewhere between 9-10%, that means the recession is on like Donkey Kong.

Raymond Reason's picture


Government bureaucracy and health care are part of GDP, so making people sick and hiring people to do it would fix the problem. 

ArkansasAngie's picture

Maybe they'll start using flu to adjust U6

Seasmoke's picture

Consume you unpatriotic motherfuckers.......CONSUME !

Nothing To See Here's picture

Those who don't will soon be categorized as "domestic terrorists", so act accordingly...

alangreedspank's picture

Don't worry. The Fed is working overtime to try and make it expensive to save money!

Bad Attitude's picture

I really want to consume, but my favorite gun store is out of stock of everything I want - no useful guns, no useful ammo.

PAWNMAN's picture

Unfortunately, these numbers came out a quarter too late. 4 more years of the community organizer.


alangreedspank's picture

At least the inevitable collapse won't be blamed on libertarians (because according to libtards, GOP = libertarians).

inevitablecollapse's picture

appreciate the name drop :) & GOP for damn sure doesn't = libertarian!

El Oregonian's picture

Hopefully, he'll be impeached this time around.

rlouis's picture

Fed is ready: Nominal GDP targeting

knukles's picture

< 6.5% target for U
Platinum coins
Nominal GDP targeting (aka higher inflation)

Implies that the artificial suppression should be raised as back in 2008 when the fears were of evil Deflation.... and the pm's had a wonderful rally.


(Weren't they optimistic in the last minutes?)

Ness.'s picture

Well this explains the current ramp is stawks.


It's all bullish.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Looks like a slippery slope to me.

<Time to make the donuts. - Bernanke>

Dr. Engali's picture


~ Homer Simpson~


buzzsaw99's picture

newspeak: Consumption = Production

knukles's picture


FrankDrakman's picture



- from Eric Blair's numerical opus

Rainman's picture

bbbut...there was a hurricane and other unexpected stuff

adr's picture

A 400lb welfare queen in a Rascal duked her pants in a NYC Toys R Us before Christmas, fully explaining Toys R Us's disappointing retail sales for the holiday.

agent default's picture

So GDP  is down,which means the probability of more QE is up, hence Gold and Silver waterfall.  Fair and efficient markets at work right here.

Nothing To See Here's picture

This is soooooo 2012. Welcome to 2013 : GDP is down, which means the probability of more QE is up, which means banks are up, which means the probability for further QE is down, which means gold is down...

Now back to my slavemasters.

francis_sawyer's picture

Why couldn't I have hired these fuckers to do my report cards for me in school?

adr's picture

Because you were too busy beating them up?

francis_sawyer's picture

Oh yeah ~ I forgot that I had them stuffed in the locker...

malikai's picture

Pretty cute. People should be running into the only safe haven left on this planet, but I'm surprised by nothing anymore.

JackT's picture

It's because Japan keeps using all of the zeros with their QE!  We need more zeros!  Maybe we can rope in an asteroid or comet and extract them?

booboo's picture


Nothing To See Here's picture

And after hearing these news, Paul Krugman pops the champagne!

adr's picture

So if the economy is contracting, and nobody is buying anything, the Fed can just lower rates and flood the market with liquidity, right?