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US Q4 GDP: From 2.5% To Sub 1% in Under Six Months
The previously noted surge in the US trade deficit may or may not be due to the iPhone (which either leads to a rise or fall in GDP, depending on which "strategist" is goalseeking their excel model to reality), but the result is clear: Q4 GDP just got slammed. Below is a summary of the Wall Street penguins all of whom had no choice but to revise their Q4 GDPs far lower.
- Goldman Sachs: 1.8% to 1.3%
- JPM: 1.5% to 0.8%
- RBS: 1.5% to 0.7%
- Nomura: 2% to 1.3%
- Last, and least, Deutche Bank's Joe Lavorgna: unchanged at 1.3%
Look forward to hope being forced to surge even more to offset for this cut by nearly 50% ot the consensus Q4 GDP estimate of 1.5% prior to today. And while we wait for Bloomberg to compile today's massive downward revision to economic growth, this is how Q4 GDP tracking estimates looked like in the past 6 months before today's downward revision which will take the consensus line to 1% or under.
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dont worry 2013 will be a record expansion year !!! /sarc
Its the iPhone, damnit! Haven't you learn ANYthing?!?!
And the flu bug
Just imagine how bad it would be if Obama wasn't printing $2T a year in funny money and debt.
Why doesn't Krugman just recommend that the Fed mint a trillion dollar coin? Oh, even Krugman realizes that it won't work.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/01/11/more-housing-angst-us...
Just issue an executive order to ban the GDP from going under 2% (or whatever # they feel like) and be done with it.
@Tyler,
The Fed projected 1.7 - 1.8% GDP growth for 2012 at the December meeting. Are they going to be on the high side also?
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20121212.pdf
Answering my own question: If Q4 is 0.8%, then 2012 GDP is 1.8%. But GDP is worthless so who cares.
+1000 hilarious
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Indeed. I'm expecting double-digit growth in SNAP recipients and the Fed Balance sheet.
Who needs GDP when you got QE?
Operation - RESULTS
Operation Date: 01/11/2013
Operation Type: Outright Coupon Purchase
Release Time: 10:15 AM
Close Time: 11:00 AM
Settlement Date: 01/14/2013
Maturity/Call Date Range: 10/31/2017 - 09/30/2018
Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $5,562
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $21,446
Growth baby will solve all our problems
Money supply is like a dick. Both of them growing can lead to a whole slew of problems, baby!
Haha, good one! +1
(My avatar is trying to grow its money supply)
Dr. Richard Head: ...or solutions!
Take the QE and invest in USA.
How difficult can this be to comprehend and implement?
"Hope and Chan...er... "Hope and EBT's"!!!
THat's the stairs you can take if you don't want to go over the cliff.
So with true CPI somewhere between 9-10%, that means the recession is on like Donkey Kong.
Government bureaucracy and health care are part of GDP, so making people sick and hiring people to do it would fix the problem.
Maybe they'll start using flu to adjust U6
Consume you unpatriotic motherfuckers.......CONSUME !
Those who don't will soon be categorized as "domestic terrorists", so act accordingly...
Don't worry. The Fed is working overtime to try and make it expensive to save money!
I really want to consume, but my favorite gun store is out of stock of everything I want - no useful guns, no useful ammo.
Unfortunately, these numbers came out a quarter too late. 4 more years of the community organizer.
At least the inevitable collapse won't be blamed on libertarians (because according to libtards, GOP = libertarians).
appreciate the name drop :) & GOP for damn sure doesn't = libertarian!
Hopefully, he'll be impeached this time around.
B(ar)rack Swan .
Fed is ready: Nominal GDP targeting
< 6.5% target for U
Platinum coins
Nominal GDP targeting (aka higher inflation)
Implies that the artificial suppression should be raised as back in 2008 when the fears were of evil Deflation.... and the pm's had a wonderful rally.
(Weren't they optimistic in the last minutes?)
Well this explains the current ramp is stawks.
It's all bullish.
Looks like a slippery slope to me.
<Time to make the donuts. - Bernanke>
MMMMM...donuttts
~ Homer Simpson~
newspeak: Consumption = Production
Revenue=Taxes
Spending=Investment
War=Peace
Freedom=Tyranny
Equality=Redistribution
FREEDOM = SLAVERY
IGNORANCE = STRENGTH
- from Eric Blair's numerical opus
bbbut...there was a hurricane and other unexpected stuff
A 400lb welfare queen in a Rascal duked her pants in a NYC Toys R Us before Christmas, fully explaining Toys R Us's disappointing retail sales for the holiday.
So GDP is down,which means the probability of more QE is up, hence Gold and Silver waterfall. Fair and efficient markets at work right here.
This is soooooo 2012. Welcome to 2013 : GDP is down, which means the probability of more QE is up, which means banks are up, which means the probability for further QE is down, which means gold is down...
Now back to my slavemasters.
Why couldn't I have hired these fuckers to do my report cards for me in school?
Because you were too busy beating them up?
Oh yeah ~ I forgot that I had them stuffed in the locker...
Pretty cute. People should be running into the only safe haven left on this planet, but I'm surprised by nothing anymore.
http://blog.quantsig.net/2013/01/11/gold-closure/
It's because Japan keeps using all of the zeros with their QE! We need more zeros! Maybe we can rope in an asteroid or comet and extract them?
BREAKING NEWS!!! BLOOMBERG NEWS REPORTS THE NEW TREASURY SEC TO HAND THE FEDERAL RESERVE A BOX OF PLATINUM CHEERIOS FOR FEDERAL RESERVE ZERO'S.
And after hearing these news, Paul Krugman pops the champagne!
So if the economy is contracting, and nobody is buying anything, the Fed can just lower rates and flood the market with liquidity, right?
Maybe we should start having them predict our deficit?
pods
After closely following this past election cycle this is just shocking. Uncle Joe where are you and your 500K monthly job growth and robust economy? It's almost like you and your clerks have been making it up all along.
Every government in the world needs to reduce deficit spending yet wall street still says global growth of 2% for 2013.
What I have found is that the non EBT crowd has figured out that if they don't buy food at full price and wait a week, they will be able to buy meat and other perishable goods at half price.
The same with just about everything else. If you wait until after Christmas to buy for next year, you can get all your kids presents for 50% off.
Wall Street can push prices as high as they want. In the end the consumer still has to choose to pay. 2013 will see the tapped out consumer pretty much refuse to buy just about everything.
Just bought a Bosch compound mitre saw dbl bvl for 50% off on Amazon, best one out there for my money.
btw my wife says I'm so tight only dogs can hear me , well you get it...
iGDP!
Best recovery 23 trillion dollars can't buy.
$23 trillion dollars, and all I got was this 'FUCK U BERNANK' T-shirt!
"And while we wait for Bloomberg…"
What’s needed is financial information that is less influenced by the banker-controlled financial press.
The sources for say Frontrunning today, much as in the past, are almost exclusively, as today, WSJ, BBG, Reuters, and FT. We are being propagandized by the financial media as to what the facts are and the future as- hoped-for-and-envisioned by the international bankers and their cohorts.
Not only do they select the stories, sift the quotes, and cherry pick the facts, but when the facts aren’t there they create them. And always they put the banker spin on every day’s developments.
Example: When unemployment claims are slightly higher than “expected,” they are reported as "steady improvement" in the employment situation. But when they are “less than expected,” they are reported as, as they were today, as “uneven.”
The bottom line: these are lies.
The Bloomberg Monopoly is so out of control, and with the mayor’s extreme tyrannical viewpoint, how could Bloomberg possibly be believed in its reports and facts and figures on economic news?
Thank goodness we have Zero Hedge that steers a truthful path through these many biased reports.
Major Recession in 2013: US November Trade Deficit Soars To $48.7 Billion, Downward Q1 GDP Revisions Imminent!!! Wells Fargo And Morgan Stanley Layoff Thousands Ahead of Q4 Earning Reports. Inflation Running at 7% or Higher And The Market Is At Its Most Risk-On Level Since Just Before The Stock Market Crash That Began In 2007's Third Quarter.
http://investmentwatchblog.com/major-recession-in-2013-us-november-trade...
Ohh looky the emancipation soon to be civil war president is going to deliver the state of the union address on Lincoln's birthday. Isn't the branding sweet?
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-deliver-state-union-lincolns-b...
I'd rather have a root canal than listen to any drivel from that mealy mouthed monster.
Maybe he should have choosen Ground Hog day.
It would have been an ironic juxtaposition of events.
One involves a meaningless ritual in which we look to an
insignificant creature of little intelligence for prognostication.
The other involves a groundhog.
*IMPOSSIBLE*
'Professor' Siegel just told CNBS that the markets will do better this year than last, with the S&P reaching all time highs, and multiples expanding to 17-18! ? so I'm cornfused..
either all is well, or it's time for The Governmentisimo to send every American a moped.. One of the ones with pedals so it can be riden even when the owner can't afford half a tank of gas.
Everyone was here yesterday screaming "BTFD" and pounding the table to get people to buy stocks. Where did all of these uber-bulls go today???
We're taking the day off with our profits. Good luck getting back to even, bears.
Even Cramer said this morning that he now doubts stocks "have much more room to run" When a perma-bull like Cramer is questioning the rally, you know it's in trouble.
How depressing. Gold gets repeatedly slammed down.
The intensity of the downward manipulation has increased ever since the 1800 handle back a few months. That's FEAR personified. The CBs have got to be worried the lid is going to blow...
OT...when are all the folks who think their taxes aren't going up going to get their first paycheck of the year?
on the 15th or 30th
That sure is a good sign for the US housing market. NOT. Rising taxes, dropping wage income, high unemployment rates for first time homebuyers. OMG!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/01/11/more-housing-angst-us...
GDP falling dramatically. Markets should ramp because the outlook is good a couple of years from now.
ZH showed a 200 billion dollar surplus at WF this a.m. JP Morgan has a 450 billion dollar Fed fueled capital surplus. Why is anyone surprised that the bankers use excess capital to suppress commodities or buy oil.
It's a fucking economic- Matrix style- freak show. Markets completely detached from reality. Sooner or later people get tired of seeing re-runs Mr Anderson.
Intinite growth in a finite world is impossible. Now is the time to understand that. When adjusted for REAL inflation, we're in negative GDP territory since 2002, with the exception of two quarters in 2004.
And as of this moment, the Dow Jones is actually up.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/dow-jones-daily-heads-higher-stronger-v...
Let's see. GDP in 2012 less than 1%, but Dow Jones up over 10%. If GDP goes negative in 2013, the Dow Jones should.....uh.....crash.
No, the Dow Jones gains 20 per cent.
Damn, how do you get access to some of these beta BBerg functions?
Now THAT is the change we can believe in!! Load up on guns, gold and KY jelly. here comes sharia law, via Obunga, the new Papa Doc.
HAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAHAAAAAAA!
Take that you central planning moronic schmucks! You perversely historicaly ignorant fools!
You demented, dimwitted, dingbatted evil assholes!
Ahhhhhhh. There. Thats better. Looks like I can lay off the morphine tonight.
I started cutting back 3 years ago as my personal protest to starve the beast. I'm always amazed at how cheaply I can get by. I have cut so much fat out of my budget and now I view it as a sport to see how little I can spend every month. No Iproducts, shop at discount retailers, clip a lot of coupons, bought a 40+ mpg car so no gasoline expenses to think of, shop at dollar tree for a lot of essentials. I have plenty of money but fuck every one of these bastards, I will not spend it.(except a lot shiny coins and some unshiny lead)
How would the economy look if everyone, including the government just spent what they earned or less?
Or is it too scary to calculate ?
You got exactly what you voted for. Failure and lies!
With today's action, it looks like the bears might be taking control of the board again. Will have to wait until next week to know for sure.
GDP will be negative; this is a recession.
GDP will be whatever they want it to be. All numbers are dependant on the amount of money printed and debt created. FORWARD!
I blame the Mayans
Wow that's great for stocks. Less money for the economy means more for the markets. YeeeeHaaaa!
Barclays: 2.0% to 1.3%
Morgan Stanley: 1.5% to 0.7%
Pierpont Securities: 1.5% to 0.5%
Goldman Sachs: 1.8% to 1.3%
JPM: 1.5% to 0.8%
RBS: 1.5% to 0.7%
Nomura: 2% to 1.3%
Deutche Bank's unchanged at 1.3%
GDP forecasts cut on sharply wider trade deficit
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gdp-forecasts-cut-on-sharply-wider-trade-deficit-2013-01-11