US Q4 GDP: From 2.5% To Sub 1% in Under Six Months

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The previously noted surge in the US trade deficit may or may not be due to the iPhone (which either leads to a rise or fall in GDP, depending on which "strategist" is goalseeking their excel model to reality), but the result is clear: Q4 GDP just got slammed. Below is a summary of the Wall Street penguins all of whom had no choice but to revise their Q4 GDPs far lower.

  • Goldman Sachs: 1.8% to 1.3%
  • JPM: 1.5% to 0.8%
  • RBS: 1.5% to 0.7%
  • Nomura: 2% to 1.3%
  • Last, and least, Deutche Bank's Joe Lavorgna: unchanged at 1.3%

Look forward to hope being forced to surge even more to offset for this cut by nearly 50% ot the consensus Q4 GDP estimate of 1.5% prior to today. And while we wait for Bloomberg to compile today's massive downward revision to economic growth, this is how Q4 GDP tracking estimates looked like in the past 6 months before today's downward revision which will take the consensus line to 1% or under.

 

 

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Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:53 | 3144456 michiganmaven
michiganmaven's picture

dont worry 2013 will be a record expansion year !!! /sarc

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:04 | 3144493 The Juggernaut
The Juggernaut's picture

Its the iPhone, damnit!  Haven't you learn ANYthing?!?!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:18 | 3144562 knukles
knukles's picture

And the flu bug

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:30 | 3144622 zaphod
zaphod's picture

Just imagine how bad it would be if Obama wasn't printing $2T a year in funny money and debt. 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:40 | 3144664 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Why doesn't Krugman just recommend that the Fed mint a trillion dollar coin? Oh, even Krugman realizes that it won't work.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/01/11/more-housing-angst-us...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 15:03 | 3144983 dlmaniac
dlmaniac's picture

Just issue an executive order to ban the GDP from going under 2% (or whatever # they feel like) and be done with it.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 16:15 | 3145220 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

@Tyler,

The Fed projected 1.7 - 1.8% GDP growth for 2012 at the December meeting.  Are they going to be on the high side also?

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20121212.pdf

Answering my own question:  If Q4 is 0.8%, then 2012 GDP is 1.8%.  But GDP is worthless so who cares.

Sat, 01/12/2013 - 11:05 | 3146947 Dawg37
Dawg37's picture

+1000 hilarious

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 20:02 | 3144656 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:27 | 3144605 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Indeed.  I'm expecting double-digit growth in SNAP recipients and the Fed Balance sheet.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:18 | 3144836 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Who needs GDP when you got QE?

Operation - RESULTS 
Operation Date: 01/11/2013 
Operation Type: Outright Coupon Purchase 
Release Time: 10:15 AM 
Close Time: 11:00 AM 
Settlement Date: 01/14/2013 
Maturity/Call Date Range: 10/31/2017 - 09/30/2018 

Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $5,562 
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $21,446 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:54 | 3144459 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Growth baby will solve all our problems

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:56 | 3144467 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Money supply is like a dick.  Both of them growing can lead to a whole slew of problems, baby!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:15 | 3144545 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

Haha, good one! +1

(My avatar is trying to grow its money supply)

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:15 | 3144550 The Juggernaut
The Juggernaut's picture

Dr. Richard Head: ...or solutions!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:07 | 3144509 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Take the QE and invest in USA.

How difficult can this be to comprehend and implement?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:17 | 3144554 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

"Hope and Chan...er... "Hope and EBT's"!!!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:55 | 3144462 This just in
This just in's picture

THat's the stairs you can take if you don't want to go over the cliff.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:55 | 3144464 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

So with true CPI somewhere between 9-10%, that means the recession is on like Donkey Kong.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:09 | 3144524 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

 

Government bureaucracy and health care are part of GDP, so making people sick and hiring people to do it would fix the problem. 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:28 | 3144610 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Maybe they'll start using flu to adjust U6

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:56 | 3144469 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Consume you unpatriotic motherfuckers.......CONSUME !

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:13 | 3144542 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

Those who don't will soon be categorized as "domestic terrorists", so act accordingly...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:16 | 3144552 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

Don't worry. The Fed is working overtime to try and make it expensive to save money!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:05 | 3144789 Bad Attitude
Bad Attitude's picture

I really want to consume, but my favorite gun store is out of stock of everything I want - no useful guns, no useful ammo.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:56 | 3144470 PAWNMAN
PAWNMAN's picture

Unfortunately, these numbers came out a quarter too late. 4 more years of the community organizer.

 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:17 | 3144559 alangreedspank
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At least the inevitable collapse won't be blamed on libertarians (because according to libtards, GOP = libertarians).

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:37 | 3144650 inevitablecollapse
inevitablecollapse's picture

appreciate the name drop :) & GOP for damn sure doesn't = libertarian!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:20 | 3144566 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Hopefully, he'll be impeached this time around.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 14:41 | 3144899 NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

B(ar)rack Swan .

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:57 | 3144472 rlouis
rlouis's picture

Fed is ready: Nominal GDP targeting

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:23 | 3144578 knukles
knukles's picture

< 6.5% target for U
Platinum coins
Nominal GDP targeting (aka higher inflation)

Implies that the artificial suppression should be raised as back in 2008 when the fears were of evil Deflation.... and the pm's had a wonderful rally.

 

(Weren't they optimistic in the last minutes?)

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:58 | 3144475 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Well this explains the current ramp is stawks.

 

It's all bullish.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 12:58 | 3144479 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Looks like a slippery slope to me.

<Time to make the donuts. - Bernanke>

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:09 | 3144526 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

MMMMM...donuttts

~ Homer Simpson~

 

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:01 | 3144486 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

newspeak: Consumption = Production

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:24 | 3144586 knukles
knukles's picture

Revenue=Taxes
Spending=Investment
War=Peace
Freedom=Tyranny
Equality=Redistribution

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 15:54 | 3145202 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

FREEDOM = SLAVERY

IGNORANCE = STRENGTH

- from Eric Blair's numerical opus

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:01 | 3144487 Rainman
Rainman's picture

bbbut...there was a hurricane and other unexpected stuff

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:11 | 3144531 adr
adr's picture

A 400lb welfare queen in a Rascal duked her pants in a NYC Toys R Us before Christmas, fully explaining Toys R Us's disappointing retail sales for the holiday.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:03 | 3144492 agent default
agent default's picture

So GDP  is down,which means the probability of more QE is up, hence Gold and Silver waterfall.  Fair and efficient markets at work right here.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:16 | 3144553 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

This is soooooo 2012. Welcome to 2013 : GDP is down, which means the probability of more QE is up, which means banks are up, which means the probability for further QE is down, which means gold is down...

Now back to my slavemasters.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:03 | 3144494 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Why couldn't I have hired these fuckers to do my report cards for me in school?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:09 | 3144518 adr
adr's picture

Because you were too busy beating them up?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:35 | 3144641 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Oh yeah ~ I forgot that I had them stuffed in the locker...

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:05 | 3144501 malikai
malikai's picture

Pretty cute. People should be running into the only safe haven left on this planet, but I'm surprised by nothing anymore.

http://blog.quantsig.net/2013/01/11/gold-closure/

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:07 | 3144510 JackT
JackT's picture

It's because Japan keeps using all of the zeros with their QE!  We need more zeros!  Maybe we can rope in an asteroid or comet and extract them?

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:22 | 3144572 booboo
booboo's picture

BREAKING NEWS!!! BLOOMBERG NEWS REPORTS THE NEW TREASURY SEC TO HAND THE FEDERAL RESERVE A BOX OF PLATINUM CHEERIOS FOR FEDERAL RESERVE ZERO'S.

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:54 | 3144727 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

And after hearing these news, Paul Krugman pops the champagne!

Fri, 01/11/2013 - 13:08 | 3144514 adr
adr's picture

So if the economy is contracting, and nobody is buying anything, the Fed can just lower rates and flood the market with liquidity, right?

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