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Guest Post: Despite Sanctions, Iran's Economy Limps Along

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Submitted by John C.K. Daly of OilPrice.com

Despite Sanctions, Iran's Economy Limps Along

In the 20th century, upright moral nations developed a new method of showing international opprobrium to rogue nations, the implantation of economic sanctions, designed to modify a recalcitrant nation’s behavior to accommodate international political mores.

The most infamous example is the U.S. unilaterally imposing an oil embargo on Japan in July 1941, which most historians now agree led directly to Pearl Harbor, as energy bereft Japan, importing 4/5 of its crude oil needs from the U.S., decided to seize the oil assets of the Dutch East Indies in order to continue its imperial adventures in China and southeast Asia.

Fast forward to 2013, and Washington is seeking yet again to use sanctions to influence Iran’s domestic policies, most notably its support for insurgent (terror) regimes and its civilian nuclear uranium enrichment program, which Tehran maintains is entirely peaceful, but which the U.S. and Israel assert in fact masks a covert program to develop a nuclear weapon capacity.

Iran is now unique in the world that it is currently subject to a series of sanctions regimes, including those imposed by the U.S., the European Union and the United Nations Security Council.

Even plucky Australia has gotten into the act, with Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr announcing on 10 January that Canberra’s new sanctions targeted Iran’s financial, trade, energy, and transport sectors, telling reporters, "These sanctions further increase pressure on Iran to comply with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations and with UN Security Council resolutions and to engage in serious negotiations on its nuclear program."

So, how effective has western pressure been in bringing Tehran’s mullahcracy to heel?

On 7 January Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi told the country's budget and planning parliamentary commission that  Iran’s oil exports have plummeted by 40 percent as a result of the Western sanctions targeting the country’s nuclear program and that there had also been  “a 45 percent decrease in repatriating oil money."

Qasemi’s candidness was a significant climbdown, as previously he had persistently maintained that Iran's crucial oil exports were entirely unaffected by the U.S. and EU sanctions.

Whatever yardstick is used, the Western sanctions have diminished Iranian oil exports. While in 2011 the EU had purchased 18 percent of Iran's oil exports, that figure has now shrunk to zero, while other Iranian export markets, including China, Japan, South Korea, India and Turkey have  decreased Iranian crude oil imports from anywhere from 15 percent to more than 40 percent during 2012. According to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, of which Iran is the second largest producer, and the International Energy Agency, Iranian crude exports have fallen from around 2.4 million barrels per day in late 2011 to roughly one million barrels per day by December 2012.

Financial analysts estimate that plummeting exports, combined with the U.S. sanctions designed to exclude Iran from using international banking transactions to repatriate oil revenues are now costing the country roughly $5 billion per month in lost revenues. On 9 January Iran’s central bank stated that by the end of 2012 the country’s annual inflation rate soared by 27.4 percent, and that in October 2012, the Iranian rial lost about 50 percent of its value in one week.

Tehran refutes the nuclear allegations and maintains that, as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and a member of the International Atomic Energy Agency, it is entitled to develop and acquire nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.

So, how effective have the sanctions been in moderating Iran’s behavior up to now?

Current indications are not much, despite the damage inflicted on the country’s economy.

On 9 January Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that Iran should establish more processing industries in the oil and gas sectors to reduce dependency on exports of crude oil and that the budget plan for the next Iranian year of 1392 (to start on 21 March) envisaged less dependence on crude oil revenues as the government intends to replace crude oil exports with oil derivatives to allow the nation’s economy to participate in the oil sector’s lucrative downstream industry.

An Islamic regime has controlled Iran for the last 34 years, and it is worth bearing in mind that, according to the CIA World Factbook, the median age of Iran’s population is 26, which means that half the country’s population knows no other political system.

Accordingly, what is the Farsi word for “stalemate?” A regime that has weathered more than three decades of tumult in its efforts to construct an Islamic society seems unlikely in an energy-starved world to ameliorate its behavior solely to please the dictates of Washington, Brussels, the UN and Canberra.

And oh, on 14 September 2012 the United States exempted Belgium, Britain, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and Japan from complying with the sanctions for another 180 days, a list that was expanded on 8 December to include China, India, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey, and Taiwan.

And, of course, the military option remains “on the table.”

 

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Mon, 01/14/2013 - 19:47 | 3152537 The Gooch
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From Drudge-

http://www.jpost.com/International/Article.aspx?id=299215

War. Dead. Ahead.

If this goes down...

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:06 | 3152594 zilverreiger
zilverreiger's picture

Fuck it hang that relinut

HEYOOOO

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:17 | 3152615 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Iran is sitting on top of a sea of oil, 500T of gold and the two most  populated and growing nations in the world are willing to directly trade goods and even more gold for oil.

What could possibly go wrong when they have all that going for them?

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:59 | 3152622 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Hence, the propaganda in the 1st post.

Stir up the freedom flags.

Straw pastor.

Sick fucking world.

 

And why the fuck would anyone interpret that post as advocating war?

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:28 | 3152646 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

These sanctions will have the Iranis reduced to eating grass in no time.  Just like the North Koreans.  I doubt they'll hold out beyond 6 months.  It's over for them.  We've even embargoed lawnmowers. The noose tightens!!!

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:49 | 3152691 h0oS
h0oS's picture

LOL, over thirty years of sanctions yet Iran has the one of the highest rates of scientific progress in the world as measured by publications, never mind the fact that it now has a military manufacturing base and is actively exporting arms, oh and a nuclear programme, oh and a space programme... Wow those sanctions really must work...

Israel is shitting itself in a corner as the US slowly realises it has to do business with Iran and it will be prepared to sell Israel to the highest bidder.

There will be no overt war with Iran before the Israeli regime collapses and the US changes its foreign policy.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 10:11 | 3152704 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

Israel is going to lose the #s game as far as population-their reproductive rate is on par with W. Europe and hopefully US public opinion is turning against them with only the dying Neocons to shill for AIPAC-even if alot of congress trembles before them

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 11:59 | 3154129 SheepleInAction
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These sanctions will have the Iranis reduced

 

Isn't that how Arabs usually call "Iranians"? 


Tue, 01/15/2013 - 01:26 | 3153331 AgAu_man
AgAu_man's picture

I dunno.... would not 'short' our 'Red Sea Pedestrian' (Monty Python humor) friends  just yet.

Fundamentally the two countries do not have a fight with each other directly. It's purely over the Palestinians.  If, say, the Orthodox elements of the Knesset keep the upper hand of extending their Settlements at the expense of the Palestinians, this will be viewed as Zionism, and will be objected by many parties and countries in the region and the world.  Most Israelis don't like it, but not enough to stop it, as they too benefit from having an Orthodox buffer in the region.  Simple human nature, nothing complicated.

The right-wingers for sure and probably many moderates in Israel can't be too happy about Iran helping their opponents -- now that their previous benefactor (Saddam) has been wiped out by their American friends and proxy-fighters.  I get that.  Without getting all emotional about it.

Problem is, they can't take them on themselves, and the Americans can't and probably won't either.  The alleged Upside is not worth the likely Downside.  Understandibly so.

Eventually, someone will have to be "thrown under the bus" in this Zero-Sum settlement game.  To their (Israeli) deep regret, it may have to be the Orthodox wing.  After the election, is my sense.  They are nothing if not stubborn, well-organized and financed.  Whether this is in Netanyahu's DNA or not, it is something he has to deal with and seems to be dealing with, with zest.

If you want to read real news on what's going on, you won't find it in the N. Am. news media.  It is 100% pasteurized and homogenized milk from a hundred cows.  The Jewish community does not like to "air" its laundry in public in the US.  At home... different story.  So read their papers online, and you get a far more diverse range of views.  As you'd expect from a smart, confident and oppinionated people.  The Ortohodox groups are (getting) more and more assertive and radical about their views and positions.  E.g. there is a quiet storm brewing there, where the Orthodox definition of Jew is very narrow and either objectionable or even offensive to many/most Israelis.  Family drama far, far worse than 'Dallas'.

What no one in the West has yet aired -- dared or allowed to air -- and what the Iranians themselves have done a piss-poor PR job at is:

The true purpose of an Iranian nuclear capability is not to use it as the ultimate offensive weapon, but as the ultimate retaliatory weaponThey are too smart to even think of 'attacking' Israel and its many, many nukes.  So the Israelis need not fear them.  What they probably 'fear', is that a nuclear-armed Iran can no longer be overthrown by their American proxy -- the way Iraq was.

And if Iran can't be overthrown, why then gunboat diplomacy fails in that region and -- G*d dammit! -- you'd actually have to negotiate with the Palestinians in good faith.  "God forbid!", say the Orthodox.  And then you're back at the Settlement Dilemma.

Any claim that Iran will/would arm outsider groups is so stupid, that it is not worthy of serious discussion with anyone with brains and intellectual integrity.  This is a 100% pure False-Flag (FF) argument, to redirect the debate:  From Settlement Policy to Anything/Everything else.  Pure & simple.

IMO, the biggest threat to world peace is not the technology per se, but the relentless march of extremist religious groups of all stripes.  In the Mid-East, as well as right here in the US.  Even on this site, I see some people who are all to happy to bring the gasoline and matches to the party -- as long as they get to watch someone else light it.

Hopefully, cooler, smarter heads will prevail in both countries and in the US.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 13:20 | 3154406 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

So you noticed that after eating grass for a decade that exactly zero North Koreans have starved to death.

Damn.

Thanks for playing.

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:28 | 3152647 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

These sanctions will have the Iranis reduced to eating grass in no time.  Just like the North Koreans.  I doubt they'll hold out beyond 6 months.  It's over for them.  We've even embargoed lawnmowers. The noose tightens!!!

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:47 | 3152686 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

so dumb you had to post it twice

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 13:23 | 3154394 Bicycle Repairman
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That's what happens when it is intentionally dumb.

Maybe I should have said 'weed whacker' instead of 'lawn mower'?  A pie in the face, perhaps?

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 21:44 | 3152794 Jack Burton
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The more military force the USA sends to Pacific regions as part of their plan to shift to confront China, the more incentive China has to do business with Iran, the more reason they have to form alliance with Iran. The US may not get the free hand they want to destroy Iran with military force. China may not stand by and let their oil source and only Mide East friendly nation be conquered.

Russia is on the fence, they pretend to support Iran, but their support is very weak. China may have more incentive to back Iran. Russia does not need oil and markets for export of manufactured goods. But Iran is an ideal partner for China. Iran has oil and China needs it. Iran needs all sorts of goods and China has everything imaginable.

Every time the US pokes China in the eye, the more China thinks that Iran would be a great friend to have and worth defending against a NATO conquest.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 03:42 | 3153441 resurger
resurger's picture

yup

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 07:32 | 3153544 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Someone has to stop the U.S. I just wish it weren't the muslims.

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:18 | 3152616 TwoShortPlanks
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Sanctions are merely there to aggravate the public to revolt, nothing more.

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 19:47 | 3152549 john39
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nwo fail. 

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 19:49 | 3152552 brewing
brewing's picture

this was so close to being interesting...

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 19:50 | 3152558 jmcadg
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So that leaves the US and Azerbaijan as the remaining countries with sanctions against Iran - useful!

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 19:52 | 3152563 caimen garou
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 iran is like johnson grass, hard to kill a bad weed when you keep feeding it.

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 19:58 | 3152570 fonzannoon
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I thought we were watching the Iranian currency hyperinflate a few months ago? Now they are hangin in?

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:04 | 3152589 Big Corked Boots
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I was going to suggest we bomb them back to the middle ages, but apparently, it is still 1391 there.

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:35 | 3152654 Joe moneybags
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Great material, Boots.  Tough crowd here.

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:46 | 3152681 larz
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1492, fixed for you BCB

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 05:14 | 3153478 etresoi
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OK, you have proven that you are an ignorant ass, who has never been to Iran.  Take a walk through your urban ghettos and see your future.

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:05 | 3152590 zilverreiger
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Iran fin min said they are dumping USD and EURO today.

http://www.presstv.ir/

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:07 | 3152596 theprofromdover
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I think it grossly unfair that US didn't exempt Israel from sanctions, to trade with Iran.

Who knows, they might want to be pals.

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:09 | 3152605 zilverreiger
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No jew jokes please, or I sue you

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:21 | 3152623 TheFourthStooge-ing
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.

I think it grossly unfair that US didn't exempt Israel from sanctions, to trade with Iran.

Who knows, they might want to be pals.

They certainly were during the Reagan administration. Israel acted as a middleman, selling arms to the Iranians and being reimbursed by the US in what would become known as the Iran-Contra scandal.

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:07 | 3152599 knowless
knowless's picture

iran should hold true. sadly, in western media they will be portrayed as a "rogue" nation, and the east will sever them from their body politic as well, but in reality, geographically, they are doomed to be the board that the game is played on.

 

the only justice would be not treating them as proxy for the real war, which is not an option.

 

have fun america. reality comes home some day.

leave the persians alone please? put your house in order.

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:43 | 3152678 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

It's hard to know who is good and bad in the world, what with all the deceit and subterfuge.  But one can look at who their enemies are.  If they be Israel, US, and UK, then they are probably doing something right. 

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 21:30 | 3152747 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

If they be Israel, US and UK GOVERNMENTS and their handlers.

fify.

I'm pretty sure 99.999% of us plebes don't want war, deceit and subterfuge. Anywhere.

 

 

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 22:09 | 3152877 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

99.999% of us plebes don't run governments.

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 23:40 | 3153114 Raymond Reason
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The people are in some way complicit (as a group) and will pay some kind of price, i'm afraid. 

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 22:24 | 3152916 MachineMan
MachineMan's picture

Iran should tell the west to fuck off.

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:09 | 3152603 Taint Boil
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Take the "How Much Do You Know About Iran Quiz"

 

Link

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 00:26 | 3153232 Setarcos
Setarcos's picture

I'm rather pleased that I answered nearly all correctly, or with an educated guess, e.g. I know that female participation in university education is high, but I under-guessed by about 10%.

I'm familiar with the giant strides Iran has made with defensive weapons, but I did not know at how little relative cost.

I'm pleased to see that few ZH members are anti-Iranian.

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:17 | 3152614 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Dear POTUS, the threat of Iranians building a bomb, or harboring terrorists, or hacking our banks is no longer sufficient to control the American populace and has in fact become quite boring. New narrative please.........

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:21 | 3152624 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

O is too busy trying to destabilize the US-why bother with Iran?

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:20 | 3152621 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

the US only wishes our economy was limping along. and I'm sure Iran is devastated by Australia joining in. the aussies are totally dependent on china's use of their commodities-as Canada is upon the US

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:38 | 3152660 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

What is the difference between sanctions and austerity?

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 21:33 | 3152750 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

140 characters on "The Twitter" -Ben

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:38 | 3152668 Magnum
Magnum's picture

It defies logic that Americans would not want to be friendly with the one nation sitting on massive oil reserves.  Certainly we'd all have a higher standard of living if we had an active trading relationship with Iran.  Instead we have as a "best friend" the one nation with no resources, paranoid schizo people who believe themselves superior "chosen people", endless spying on us, mossad-did-911, USS Liberty, israel.  

How long the media can pull this salesjob off is anyone's guess.

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:49 | 3152692 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I saw that turd J Leno a few months back say something about Iran to his audience and then he said-"You know Iran is our enemy-right?".

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:52 | 3152699 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

I don't think we're interested in trading, unless you mean paper for oil?  

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 09:47 | 3153741 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

If TPTB thought that the civil disobedience during the Iraq War was bad......just wait until (if) an Iran War happens.

I suspect they kind of know this.  Because, it would be extremely disruptive to business.

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:50 | 3152693 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Iran is quite a ways post Peak.  Even before sanctions arrived, their oil output was falling.

Now they will do what most do.  They will obtain refinery capability and cease to export and have the audacity to keep what they have for their own citizens.

Have a look at Saudi Arabia's oil consumption increase of late and think about what oil importers face.

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:51 | 3152696 loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

Election over... seems the threat of Iran's nuke is now over too?  fast and Furious... over... benghazi... "I have a headache"... I think maybe the Constitution is "over" too...  viva the republic...

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:57 | 3152709 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

O needed the jew vote in FL so he sent that macho,preeening, little shit ballerina Rahm down there to talk a tough game about Iran

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 21:38 | 3152763 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Rahm is his boss. Operating from Western headquarters.

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 20:53 | 3152700 David Wooten
David Wooten's picture

Sanctions never work for long and only serve to make the sanctioned stronger.

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 21:09 | 3152721 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

last time I saw their evil leader interviewed by that prick Charlie Rose, he was right about pretty much everything... can't have anymore of that!

better to keep him silent and occasionally flash a picture of him in that mad scientist outfit...

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 21:22 | 3152735 AgAu_man
AgAu_man's picture

Isn't it time we embraced the Iranians into our fold (with a financial Judas Kiss)? 

We let bygoness be bygoness -- right after NetanYahoo's re-election/erection -- and let Iranian and Israeli religious fundamentalists rant & lament away.

Then we call Lorin Michaels, and let Ahmadinejad host SNL.  He'd be perfect!  Personally I'd like to see him do a duo with Billy Crystal and they'd both look... mahvelous, but maybe it's too soon.  A shtick with Danny Devito is definitely too soon.  Although Martin Short just might be his type...  But definitely no SNL pairings with women for Ahmadinejad... bad 'Karma'.  Put him on The View, and you got WW3.

How about it guys?  Why can't we just get along?

-The Joker

p.s. Right after things are all settled down, we convince the Iranians to get the Taliban to chill out, and we build pipelines from through both countires.  It'll be a gas for all.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 10:02 | 3153768 CharlieSDT
CharlieSDT's picture

That is actually a better foreign policy idea than the USA has had in a while.

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 21:24 | 3152740 Pseudo Anonym
Pseudo Anonym's picture

yeah,

Iran is now unique in the world...

because they still have a central bank that is not controlled by hofjuden

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 22:15 | 3152898 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Is hofjuden german for psychopathic control freaks?

Mon, 01/14/2013 - 22:46 | 3152967 q99x2
q99x2's picture

The new Defense Secretary says Isreal can fight China and Russia alone. We're headed to Africa now. Sorry dudes.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 00:10 | 3153195 kedi
kedi's picture

Long term snactions have many outcomes. The enemy economy does fall, due to real deficiencies or uprisings. Or the enemy learns to run it's economy far more efficiently than yours. Iran can be a very self sufficient entity. They are a proud, educated people living in a varied and productive land. The longer you try to sanction them, the more self sufficient they will become. The U.S. and Israel are damn lucky that Iran has a good deal of strife within due to the theocratic government. It combines to make sanctions alone more effective. But the people can also just resolve to say, screw you. Live with the sanctions, the theocracy, and their pride. Sanctions on Cuba did not break her. Cuba has stood them with less resources than Iran.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 00:43 | 3153265 Mr. Hudson
Mr. Hudson's picture

I think Obama's sanctions are backfiring on him: Americans are beginning to admire Iran.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 00:45 | 3153269 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Iran's economy is 'limping along' because Iran now trades with other nations with REAL MONEY: ie, Gold, Oil, Technology....you know, things that are produced and that have value. 

 

Avoiding American and European fiat can only strengthen their economy.

 

America.  What fools. 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 00:58 | 3153289 Setarcos
Setarcos's picture

Plug for Iran, a really non-expansionist country:

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/01/14/283517/iran-to-phase-out-euro-dollar-in-trade/\

Also a plug for PressTV.  Check it out and see why I rate it highly for both content and format.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 01:17 | 3153324 Manic by Proxy
Manic by Proxy's picture

There once was a man from Iran

Who lived on the streets of Tehran

For food he sold his daughter

Even though he hadn't oughta

But he found precedent in the Koran

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 06:38 | 3153512 etresoi
etresoi's picture

The Iran sanctions are Obama's joke on the geriatric neocons and likudniks.  He inherited the Iran Sanctions Act from Clinton and Bush and one can see how unimportant it is to him by observing how it is enforced.  The sanctions have not been enforced against any non-US company, because the act allows the president to waive sanctions on a case-by-case basis, though this waiver is subject to renewal every six months. Also, Obama  exempted Belgium, Britain, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and Japan, China, India, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey, and Taiwan  from the sanctions.

But the real telltale sign is to look at who Obama has assigned the task of enforcing sanctions... a nice Jewish boy fom Greenwich, who failed at being a country western musician and was brought into Treasury by his Greenwich neighbor, Neal Wolin.  Of course, Bronin has additional qualifications... he went to school with Chelsea Clinton and his father works with Wolin's wife, at yale.

Check out  http://dawn.com/2012/09/07/us-treasury-official-meets-with-senior-pakist... and http://www.jango.com/music/Luke+Bronin?l=0 

As a result of Bronin's meeting with Pakistan (link above),  Pakistan now complies with the US sanctions against Iran, by no longer using US dollars to buy Iranian oil.  They use Chinese currency and gold. Shot yourself in the foot again, cowboy!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!