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Deutsche's Bullish For 2013 Despite These 6 Huge Downside Risks

Tyler Durden's picture





 

In their view, 2013 will likely mark the dawn of the post-crisis era, but it seems the premise for Deutsche's somewhat ebullient 2013 outlook (below) is that central-bankers remain on standby to counter any and all negative risks. Despite the brinksmanship, politicians will act to prevent systemic collapse and while structural long-term issues such as high debts across the developed world and unbalanced growth models in emerging economies remain unsettled, Deutsche argues that 2013 could be a year of stabilization after years of crisis-fighting. The following presentation is broad-based and lays out a "don't fight the central banker" meme perfectly; however, the six key downside risks (from China NPLs to European political unrest) that they highlight (but gloss over in their somewhat Pollyanna-ish way), should at least - in our humble opinion - raise some concerns about the bimodal distribution of outcomes that await risk assets in 2013.

 

2012 was tough - but Central Bankers saved the world; more of the same in 2013?

 

But there remain six key downside risks...

 

 

Full presentation below

 

Deutsche 2013 Outlook by

 


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Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:15 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

WTF?

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:47 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

...is an "upside risk?"

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 02:46 | Link to Comment Hedgerow-
Hedgerow-'s picture

I was never really any good at understanding anything, but this chart with these balloons makes even sense to me,

3 blue balloons of hope win 6 red balloons of most possible reality. Never thought understanding things could be so easy!

 

Managed to get a insider glimpse of your general banksters brainstorming session too: 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cX91qycCTI#t=6m14s

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 04:00 | Link to Comment JamesBond
JamesBond's picture

Germany has entered into recession.  That is the most important, WTF....

 

 

jb

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:21 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Top LEFT... To bottom RIGHT... [Charts in the modern paradigm]...

~~~

Bullish!

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:22 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

They'll be saying, "everything is going to be ok. We are returning to growth. There are GREEN F'N SHOOTS sprouting in the economies," as they run down the streets to escape the hangman's noose. 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:28 | Link to Comment abducens
abducens's picture

Yes things look bad and eventually we will pay but the FED can keep this rolling for at least another year or two.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 20:52 | Link to Comment The Man in Room Five
The Man in Room Five's picture

ssa

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:31 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Well, I see no green shoots down here where I am at.  J C Penney and Barnes & Noble not doing well.  Platinum is now more than gold.  And of course the big news about Germany wanting their gold back.

"Big News & Little News"

http://tinyurl.com/a63ucbb

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:34 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I should also mention that N N Taleb has nothing but contempt for predictions.  Deutsche's probability matrix up there..., he would likely sneer at.  He might approve of mentioning the RISKS though.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:37 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Re Germany 'getting their gold back', the first thing I thought, was that it might be yet another gold-deception  scheme with fake gold bars that Germany pretends to accept, because of:

The 1949 US-German secret treaty that makes Germany a submissive poodle of the US for 150 years, according to book 'The German Card' by Gerd-Helmut Komossa:

« The former head of the West German Military Intelligence has issued a book revealing secret details of a 1949 US-German treaty, alleging America and its allies have been deliberately suppressing the nation’s sovereignty ... which will be in force for another 90 years.

« Komossa says the secret agreement means that all political parties in Germany are supervised by a special Washington-based body, that the country’s army takes part in all NATO missions at first demand and that all German gold reserves are stored in New York.»

http://rt.com/usa/news/germany-us-pact-komossa/

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:48 | Link to Comment busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

Believe what you will, but when the endgame comes,

Germany wins.

 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:29 | Link to Comment schatzi
schatzi's picture

3. "global growth weakens" as downside risk

 

wtf? that's not a risk, that's a fucking fact.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:38 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Ach!  So they know der Fatherland is exiting the Euro, declaring semi autonomy from the EU such as Britain, attaching every last asset in the ECB and member bank/states, repatriating their gold and reissuing the Deutschmark.

Und every blonde fair haired maiden throughout der Fatherland shall have her very own Greek, Italian, Spanish or Portuguese nubile virginal vixen as a handmaiden and love bug.

4th time lucky, ja?

(I love the smell of '30's Berlin in the morning)

 

PS... How in the world are those all downside risks except the rise in rates?  Already the status quo with upside being Debt Ceiling is passed anyhow post big Kabuki Theater and Japanese experience of ultra low rates prolonged diminishing asset returns and income levels adding to toxic naught economic activity. 
Wonderfully done with a straight face...

PSS...  #10, ManU does follow on offering.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:31 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

Why don't they just cut out 48 pps of bullshit and say the 2013 undiscounted financial system is fully dependent on central bank printers..? Word waste.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:32 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The more downside risks that threaten the system the more the central banks will do to support the system. From Deutsche point of view it is betting on a sure thing, coordinated central bank pumping.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:33 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Downside risk :

Pakistan-India war.

Israel-Lebanon war.

Israel-Iran war.

Azerbaijan-Armenia war.

Argentina-UK war.

Japan-China war.

China-Vietnam war.

NKorea-SKorea war.

US civil war.

US invades Mexico.

Egypt-Israel.

A big volcano goes boom reducing world temperatures, reducing crops, causing food riots worldwide.

Bondzilla shows up.

Congress folks get assassinated.

Chairsatan gets assassinated.

Free Shit Army free shit cards are hacked and disabled by Anonymous.

QE causes food inflation worldwide, causing riots.

China plundges into civil war.

Bondzilla shows up in Japan.

Turkey-Greece/Cyprus go at it over contested oil.

Lots of shit can go down real bad in 2013.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:53 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Man, I'd not even thought of that one:

"Free Shit Army free shit cards are hacked and disabled by Anonymous."

That's serious stuff!  I mean riots in the streets serious shit, bro!

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 20:15 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Hilarious is what it would be.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:36 | Link to Comment AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

I'd repeat my normal meme, but I'm actually growing weary of typing it. It starts with "BUY". Till Ben stops printing. ain't nothin' gonna change direction on this beast from North. Of course, if I was a Deutsche MD, I'd probably have to think of a creative way to put it too in order to justify my millions in compensation.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:40 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

One word...LIBOR.

Fuck you Douche Bank and any of your fucking crooked shit eating analysis. Fuck off assholes.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:46 | Link to Comment Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Do they call their clients "die smurfen"?   They want to be Goldmensch.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:48 | Link to Comment The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Sorry... Me Asshole.

OT: This Sunday the gun-grab lobby is hosting a shin-dig (ankle grab) in affluent (exclusive even!)) Wilmette, Illinois.

The Illinois State Rifle Association and The Gooch would like all willing and able supporters of the 2nd Amendment to attend.

http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=86exi4bab&v=001rxOp_4...

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:57 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Hope nobody startrs a rumor that there's a meeting in Willamette about welfare reform... no more Free Shit...

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 20:08 | Link to Comment The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Portlandia?

Lots of "artists" there. 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:59 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I would love it if just one time one of these banks would come out and say " I'm bearish as fuck this year. Stocks are way overpriced, and earnings are going to blow". ...... But I guess the truth isn't good for job security.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 20:07 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

This is impossible for them to do...while they are choking on all the equities being put back to them by "investors."  They cannot be bearish the market unless Average Joe is holding all the equity place markers.

On the flip side of that double edged knife is the fact that what DB thinks is entirely irrelevant.  

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 20:03 | Link to Comment Phat Stax
Tue, 01/15/2013 - 20:26 | Link to Comment A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Biden/Bloomberg 2016. Now that's downside......

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 20:35 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

The bet against the central banks who are trying to hold back nature and stop time, is war and geopolitical.

BoJ/Japan is feeding straight into China/Asian tensions now.  Nikkei is down.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 20:51 | Link to Comment joego1
joego1's picture

Don't trust anything that could be confused with vagigi wash.

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 08:36 | Link to Comment DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

I'm skeptical when it comes to forecasting, as ZH has made clear here:

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-10/sheer-comedy-erroneous-economis...

 

I can only agree with "don't fight the central banker"...while it lasts. I also believe we don't have to fight the trend. Currently, the trend is bullish, I'd even say too bullish:

 

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/01/dow-theory-special-issue-asse...

 

 

 

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