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Stocks And Bonds Bid As AAPL Catches Down To Nasdaq

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From the start of 2012, AAPL was the beta-transforming game in town. Fund after fund claimed their stock-picking excellence when really, they were just running a higher beta fund being overweight AAPL. Today saw that come to an end (for now). AAPL and Nasdaq have recoupled (both +19.5% from 12/30/11) as the former fell to 11-month lows. One thing is clear, given strength in the indices today, everyone and their mom appeared to be in the long AAPL, short index trade isolating their performance. S&P 500 futures pushed inexorably higher all afternoon (even as bonds rallied, and the USD went bid on Juncker's verbal intervention) - testing unchanged on the week. From soon after this morning's POMO, US equities disconnected almost entirely from the rest of risk assets. Gold and Silver rose, Oil and copper slid, HY Credit snapped lower and recovered in the afternoon as the VIX term structure yawns ever wider across the debt-ceiling deadline, CHF was offered all day, and the short-term T-Bill curve is now inverted (stressed) across the debt-ceiling deadline.

 

S&P 500 futures ramped (on their own) up to unchanged on the week - only to fade back towards VWAP after the day-session close and into the futures close...

 

HYG (the high-yield bond ETF) snapped lower this afternoon but was rescued to keep thinsg aloft in stocks and while VIX limped to another lower close, VIX futures outperformed (lifting VXX off its lows into the close). Bonds ended the day in the green as did stocks...

 

But AAPL and NASDAQ recoupled from 12/30/11...

 

and across asset-classes, this morning 's POMO marked a total deterioration in correlation as US equities were bid and CONTEXT (our proxy for risk) remained flat...

 

JPY was bid overnight (as Amari commented) but CHF was offered (against the USD) all day (recovering its CHFJPY losses from last week). Juncker's 'dangerously high' EUR comments snagged EURUSD but algos were having none of it - they needed ES bid...

 

 

T-Bill curve inverted across the Debt-Ceiling Deadline...

 

and Credit markets remain decidedly unconvinced by this equity strength (*for now)...

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg And Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: AAPL (more VWAP fades)...

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: Facebook (oops)...


 

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Tue, 01/15/2013 - 17:17 | 3155440 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

"Lance Armstrong" market: all doped up.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 17:25 | 3155474 flacon
flacon's picture

All major indicies are in severely overbought status. Soo..... they keep on rallying? Until when? 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 17:37 | 3155510 Kitler
Kitler's picture

Forever perhaps.

Ladies and Gentlemen we have just found evidence of extraterrestrial life.

http://www.buckingham.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Polonnaruwa-meteo...

 

Now I'm not saying that an extraterrestrial bailout is definitely in the cards, but on Decenber 29th 2012 a chondrite meteorite fell above Sri Lanka, hit the planet and now the pictures on page 4 speaks volumes.

We are not alone. (But they are small and unlikely to shake us down for quatloos...)

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 17:52 | 3155577 Freddie
Freddie's picture

When the Bernank's helicopter filled with fiat paper fails - The Ben Bernank will be dropping gold painted tungsten on the masses.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:01 | 3155799 brak
brak's picture

we're not bailing anyone out, but we might come down just to break Krugman's windows out for the hell of it.. 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 17:41 | 3155497 Rustysilver
Rustysilver's picture

"Lance Armstrong" market:

 

Lie_strong when things get serious.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 17:46 | 3155558 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Oh Tyler(s)!  For God's sake!  Please stop talking down Apple - my hedge fund is on fire!   ;-)

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 17:18 | 3155444 tawse57
tawse57's picture

I thought that when Apple catches a cold the rest of the market is supposed to stay at home in bed with the 'flu.

For months now people have been writing that when Apple falls in price that the rest of the markets will tank?

Is there some delayed action that they forgot to tell us about?

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 19:26 | 3155872 HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

The money has to go somewhere to make the managers look good. So they pile into things like AMZN and run it to all time highs trying to jump over each other to upgrade it on....???

No one knows, they just have to buy something and it's easy for them to convince the lemmings that AMZN is the old/now new AAPL.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 17:25 | 3155475 onearmedlove
Tue, 01/15/2013 - 18:32 | 3155706 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Funny.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 17:27 | 3155483 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Sure glad the TBTF aren't using their "fresh" excess deposits for risky investment plays.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 17:28 | 3155495 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

You lost me at "risky".

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 17:28 | 3155489 Debeachesand Je...
Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

Are traders looking for worms in APPL.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 18:19 | 3155665 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

No, they are looking for the AAPL amidst the worms

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 17:27 | 3155491 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Russel 2,000 goes ape shit, again.

But, hey, really nice charts and all that shit.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 17:29 | 3155499 silvermaister
silvermaister's picture

buy phyzzzzzz !!!!

 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 17:36 | 3155521 Uncle Zuzu
Uncle Zuzu's picture

AT&T upgrades to the iPhone 4 are going for $0.99.  Or you can splurge on the 5 for $199.  It's a no brainer for most people. (the 4, obviously)

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 17:42 | 3155531 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I got my daughter an iPhone 4 upgrade for  $0.01. That's right one lousy penny. And it's wasn't even a real copper penny...it was a pretend digital penny.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 17:49 | 3155566 Freddie
Freddie's picture

LOL! A zinc penny for an iPhone 4 and if you can find a better AR15 and 500 rounds - about an ounce of gold.  Don't try to pass that tungsten shit at the gun store.

Hope & Choom!

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 17:52 | 3155575 Uncle Zuzu
Uncle Zuzu's picture

They charged me $0.99.  Thieves.  I am suing.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 17:41 | 3155537 jubber
jubber's picture

FTSE manages to close at a 52 week high 4 1/2 hours after it closed !

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 17:58 | 3155599 Titus Flavius C...
Titus Flavius Caesar Vespasianus Augustus's picture

I have no problem with a bunch of fucktard econ graduates talking down a company with a boatload of cash, talent, and ongoing projects so I can buy it more cheaply.  And for that matter, so Apple starts becoming more price conscious.   And they may as well build an iPhone 6 that's a touch wider than the S3. 

Fundamentals, people.  Good reliable products, financial soundness, an ability to adapt, and top talent.

An American company that actually makes things?  Boooooo!    Sorry, I prefer to listen to the geeks on cnet and cio than the folks who thought mbs was like, a sure thing, dude!

By all means, fellas - start selling off and pick up some Zuckerstock.  The future lies with companies that sell ad space on mobile phones!

 

 

 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 18:18 | 3155662 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

have you been riding Apple down from 700 like I am a man i am i really am a man?

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 18:22 | 3155673 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

Is their courage in betting on the law of gravity?

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 18:30 | 3155683 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"...talking down a company with a boatload of cash, talent, and ongoing projects..."

Yeah, and no Steve Jobs to Captain the ship and rally the troops.

The HMS Victory is a fine ship but never the same as she was under Admiral Lord Nelson at the Battle of Trafalgar.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 18:39 | 3155739 michiganmaven
michiganmaven's picture

By your logic then Google is a screaming buy and way better than Apple since they bought Admob and are the #1 mobile advertiser..... but oh wait... mobile ads have near zero ROI for most businesses right now as the mobile pay option is about zero.... next up? Near Field communication hype (swipe your phone instead of your credit card).... thats the next "big thing".... after that likely even more "big data" hype... just evolves from one bs bubble to another...

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 18:02 | 3155610 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Let the whoremasters juice the market up higher while the media whores crow about "recovery".  They can't play this game forever.  The growth rate of the federal debt has been far outpacing the growth rate of the economy for years, and it will remain that way until the game comes to an ugly end.

100% FUBAR.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 18:20 | 3155667 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The guys on "Fast Money" (CNBC) were all talking up Apple, saying it was a buy at this point; probably because they all have a shitload of it they want to sell.

Analyst from Nomura came on and shot holes in all their bullish talking points.

Silence on the set.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 18:37 | 3155726 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

well at this point the grease monkey Terranova must be knee deep in it, as well as that other clown with the pony tail who said it was a no brainer if it got down to 675...

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 18:45 | 3155767 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Yeah, I almost feel sorry for Terranova, surely the least talented investment 'guru' on TV.  

First, he completely misses AAPL's move from 350 to 600, then jumps aboard, gets hurt in the mini-correction and gets out with a loss, crying that he's avoiding the stock henceforth because he "doesn't understand how to trade it."  Then, after watching it soar without him aboard to 700, he then declares a 'generational buy' at  the pullback to 600, and it promptly tanks.  By "generational", I suppose he means his great-grandchildren have a chance of recovering from the picks he made in their college funds, which I'm sure have a boatload of FCX, a "name" he talks about EVERY FREAKING DAY.  Of course, given the sponsors of these networks (brokers, insurance co's) want to present ideas easily understandable by Joe Public, we'll never be rid of these dorks who still think stocks trade on 'fundamentals' or grand 'themes', something that hasn't happened since 1989.

 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 22:23 | 3156336 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Another reason why I stopped watching Oba-Mao TV and Hollywoods crap years ago.   Watching monkeys throw their feces is about as rewarding.   TV and Hollywood is 100% propaganda.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 18:21 | 3155669 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

So are you suggesting we sell the paper APPL and buy physical apples instead?

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 18:26 | 3155686 michiganmaven
michiganmaven's picture

Anyone else getting tired of this ramp up shit every day on POMO? I mean does anything else matter anymore? out of the 6 earnings I have seen after horus only 1 beat... all the rest met or missed and of those 5 all lowered guidance... yup no really this bull market is totally worth it !

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 18:58 | 3155794 DeficitAlchemist
Tue, 01/15/2013 - 20:33 | 3156061 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Crapple downside is exhausted; big sucker rally from this area.  Over-priced products, built in China, bought buy Americans in debt,  and loved by all.   The recipe for innovative competition to cut into Apple's market and margins.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 23:39 | 3156566 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

I backed up the truck today and bought more apple.  Yeah, I know, no fucking surprise.  When I get sick to my stomach is when I back up the truck.  Usually works.

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 01:04 | 3156756 n2dark
n2dark's picture

This company looks too good on paper. Between a highly publicized, but hardly precisely quantified double Irish with Dutch sandwiches and a suspiciously large and diversified offering of “refurbished” products at discounted prices, to a degree of almost duplicating the main offering of “new” products on apple's online store, I would be very interested to see an externally audited situation for the last 2-3 fiscal years. Looking at the abundance of products (some of them released as far as 2 years ago) on the “refurbished” replica of the main online store and almost unanimous consumer reports that these products are in fact “new”, I guess it would be interesting to also know how large is the pile of unsold items currently in apple's hands. Is Muddy Waters still around? Maybe they could take a swing at it...

 

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