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Widest Discrepancy Ever Between AAPL Reality And Analyst Hopium

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With price-targets now apparently nothing more than a 'talking-point', it is, perhaps, of little surprise that the gap between the average sell-side analyst's price target for AAPL and the current price is the widest it has ever been. And of course, the 'buys' versus 'sells' has not budged at all... for your reading pleasure, the 50 analysts' price targets for AAPL... and the two non-lemmings (Per Lindberg and Edward Zabitsky) that see potential downside for AAPL.

Average price target (orange) vs price (black)- and the difference (lower pane)... Evidently the number of 'buys' versus 'sells' has hardly budged...

 

with Topeka proudly clinging to their $1111 price target (talking point)...

 

Data: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 01/15/2013 - 11:59 | 3154125 hedgeless_horseman
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"Average down," said the brokerer.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:01 | 3154136 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Usually happens.....right about now.

 

Buys the dip and hold....the green chutes are on the way.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:04 | 3154144 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

"If you liked it at $700, then you'll love it at $490!  But that's me, I'm an aggressive gambler."

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:06 | 3154161 CPL
CPL's picture

I put my short to start at $10.  

 

Takes too long to wait for people to smarten up.  Besides, it's a better short at 10 than 700. 

 

Quicker.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:41 | 3154287 Atlas_shrugging
Atlas_shrugging's picture

"I'm in it for the long haul"  Let me check my Nortel

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 14:04 | 3154548 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

"Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one." —Charles Mackay.

Easy for me to see...Shorts are working up an appetite.  I think an apple will do.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 13:18 | 3154400 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

"Pump and Dump"...that's what I see about to happen. I saw this happen with Lucent back in the internet crazy days....brokers pumped Lucent up to about 75 then it cratered down to 12. The problem was there was massive oversupply of what Lucent produced.....

I mean, how many iThings do people need?

 

 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 13:22 | 3154411 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

...there was massive oversupply of what Lucent produced

Come on...you can never have enough flaming red assholes.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:05 | 3154160 davinci7_gis
davinci7_gis's picture

I mean really, does anyone really think that APPL is worth more than about $30-$60 a share?  

Yeah, they created a product (Iphone) that has paradigm shifted our entire culture but eventually there would come along something that would improve upon the technology.  The Iphone wasn't a new type of computing - it was an improvement on many existing technologies.

 

 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:49 | 3154169 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

..a product (Iphone) that has paradigm shifted our entire culture but eventually there would come along something that would improve upon the technology.

"I can read the writing on the wall." 

EK, now also on sale at OTCQB:EKDKQ

 

 

ZNGA, the new FOTM, also with plenty of support at around $0.00

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:55 | 3154332 falak pema
falak pema's picture

nostalgia lane; I like the car and Kodak invented the  iconic GUI but never put it to profitable use! 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 14:03 | 3154545 koaj
koaj's picture

that used to be Fotomat by me in NJ. there still is an empty one two towns over

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:13 | 3154181 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

does anyone really think that APPL is worth more than about $30-$60 a share? 

 

i, even i, believe it is worth more than that. even after the selloff a market cap of almost half a freaking trillion 2013 clownbux is laughable but they have more than $60/share in cash.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:24 | 3154222 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Well, they have a lot more cash than the US government has and will continue to innovate and keep a following .. That having been said, I still have a few Apr P390's I picked up in November that I believe have some life left.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:25 | 3154228 CPL
CPL's picture

I think the company is worthless without the strong man Jobs micro managing the place, historically that's Apple.  He leaves, place goes to shit.  He comes back, goes on a CEO storm through sections and hands out ass beatings.  Then the company smartens up.

 

He isn't coming back this time.  Sometimes a man is the idea that drives something.  That company is dying proof of that fact.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 17:41 | 3155536 BlueTemplar
BlueTemplar's picture

What!? You don't believe in Steve Jobs' Second Coming!?! Heretic!!!

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:28 | 3154237 e1618978
e1618978's picture

Look at their balance sheet, $150/share in cash and short term investments.  Plus even if they stop growing, they are earning $44/share/year.

So yes, they are worth more than $30-$60/share.  In fact, they are worth way more than the current stock price. 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 14:03 | 3154543 RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

You can down arrow the guy all you like, but if you don't like the truth, you might be a liberal....

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 15:21 | 3154833 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

It's hilarious how ignorant people are on here, $30/share?? Maybe $400 or even $350. 

Anyone suggesting a double digit share price is a complete tool. 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:56 | 3154337 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

I also agree that they are a fadish wonder, although their intellectual capital and patents are worth likely more than $60/share, of course I do not have any factual backing because that would take some cipherin' but tangible book is gotta be worth somethin'  (that is a hint for someone to actually do the math for me)

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 13:00 | 3154351 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

I am (easily) amazed that with the drop in AAPL and it's (alleged) heavy index weight that the S&P is at or near - what - 5 year highs?!  

And YoY electronics sales down .8%?!

 

 

 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 13:05 | 3154371 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

they use BAC when they need to keep the indexes stable for AAPL exits / sarc

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:00 | 3154128 SuperDeDuper
SuperDeDuper's picture

congrats zerohedge, on making a marketwatch article.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-futures-tick-higher-in-asia-tradin...

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:22 | 3154217 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Shouldn't that be the other way around? Congratulations to Market Watch for having the good sense of referencing Zero Hedge ,the best financial site on the web?

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 13:46 | 3154491 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

Market Watch = good sense?

NOT

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:01 | 3154138 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

480 is the bottoming out level of the months-long sell-off.  Substantially higher than the hyperbolist Gundlach.

Expect AAPL (or its vast market support network) to defend the stock this week--through rumors, manipulation, or an outright announcement. 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:19 | 3154204 Gypsyducks
Gypsyducks's picture

Nest stop $430.00

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:08 | 3154148 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I hope nobody wants to buy ammo at Walmart.

 

http://www.infowars.com/report-walmart-forbids-new-ammunition-orders/

 

Nevermind the fact that there is any available to begin with.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:15 | 3154190 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Or online Doc!!!

http://www.luckygunner.com/

Completely out of 5.56, 7.62, 22 LR, and 38 special!!!!

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:16 | 3154192 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Next up, Walmart stops re-ordering fertilizer.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:32 | 3154254 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Wal-Mart killed the downtown in my hometown, whereas nobody ever died there from a gunshot.  Wal-Mart has done more harm to this nation than all the guns and ammo ever could.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:52 | 3154322 falak pema
falak pema's picture

but, but, but, they are as iconic of US expertise/general culture as Smith & Wesson, Remington n Colt...n Coke n BigMacdo. 

"Y pick on me I'm just the richest, smartest guy in town, I make those chinamen drop their profits into my till for a meager pittance. You've never had so many 1$ tee shirts in your malls. You've neva had it sooo good!"

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:05 | 3154154 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

third from the bottom is still higher than it is trading at this very moment. BUY! BUY! BUY! LMAO!

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:07 | 3154164 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

So......when does the short squeeze arrive?

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:08 | 3154166 Racer
Racer's picture

Only 2% short so very little squeezability

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:12 | 3154178 Frozen IcQb
Frozen IcQb's picture

My two H&S formations says $425 on it's way the down to $370 one year out.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:33 | 3154261 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Benny sees your two H&S formations, and raises two trillion dollars over the next two years, for $1500 on AAPL and $75 on FB!

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 14:25 | 3154307 Frozen IcQb
Frozen IcQb's picture

LOL. Yes, the market could surge but 70% of the GDP is maxed-out in debt and will not afford the next iThingy...not at these prices anyways.

Idiosyncratic risk at its finest.

AAPL @$1500 only = iBamaFone

 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:19 | 3154210 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

There is an analyst in that list named Eugene E. Munster.  I wonder if that is Eddie's cousin?

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:22 | 3154218 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Where are all the fanbois that were trashing Reggie M's analysis on Apple?

Hello.....?

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:47 | 3154305 falak pema
falak pema's picture

googling! 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 13:41 | 3154477 Argonaught
Argonaught's picture

Isn't that the biggest sign of the shift?  6 months ago, this article would have had 3 times to comments and would have been posted all over the web on applonian sites with people bashing it left and right.  Today?  Damn near crickets!

 

My 70-yr old parents and in-laws, all have iphones/ipods/ipads.  And they can actually use them.  My 6-yr old can work all those devices, too.  I ask you...what can a device possibly be capable of if that kind of demographic can skillfully work it?  Hint: not much more than flinging cartoon birds at cartoon pigs on the death star or posting things on the Facebook or the twitter (that you will one day wish you have never done...).

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:23 | 3154220 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Edward Zabitsky FTW!

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 15:32 | 3154884 reTARD
reTARD's picture

But sadly I suspect it will be Brian White who gets the bonuses.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:26 | 3154227 falak pema
falak pema's picture

widest discrepancy between the maxim : the Market is the Economy, and the current situation.

Today, the manipulated market is killing the real economy as it careens in accelerated mode fed on FED/ECB printing into financial mal investment.

And Apple is the Iconic company of this outsourced and gimmicky age; where innovation does not feed general good but only lines the criminal pockets of the happy few; until it hits the asymptote.

All things have an end. We may fight the inevitablity, use all our weapons of deceit and can kicking, pretend we own the weapon of mass destruction, it only makes it come more suddenly when we least expect it.

Ask LAnce about that; he is another icon of this sleight of hand age.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:26 | 3154230 Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

Reggie is high-fiving somewhere right now.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:28 | 3154234 Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture

We can speculate from here to eternity as to how low it will go, but NOBODY knows.

 

What EVERYBODY should have know was that Appl made groundbreaking technological achievements and products which have reached maximum saturation in the summer of 2012. At that point the wise man says, "thank you my wonderful investment vehicle, but I now need a new ride."

 

The unwise man says, "I think I need a new ride, but my boys Joe Terranova and Jim Cramer are saying it will surge to new highs. I think I will listen to them since they are on cnbc and so they must know what they are talking about, because in no way what-so-ever would cnbc hire wall st. shills to help them do their bidding."

 

I just can't believe why so many hedge fund managers would have bought up so much of this stuff for so long, oh wait, Jim Cramer used to manage a hedge fund. Nevermind. I can believe it.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:30 | 3154246 e1618978
e1618978's picture

I think that you will be eating a bit of crow on the 24th.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:34 | 3154264 css1971
css1971's picture

What EVERYBODY should have know was that Appl made groundbreaking technological achievements and products

So what were these then? Cos a bit like Microsoft, Apple have really just followed the tech leaders, waited till the market matured a bit & then slapped their logo on to a similar device.

 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:33 | 3154257 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Did anyone really think a gadget maker was going to hold the largest company market cap title for very long?  You're only as good as your next product in the short term but not even that good in the longer term.  You know the entire market is going to change and your gadgets will be rendered irrelevant, no matter how good they are.

Ask RIM, ask MS, ask HPQ.  Growing old is no fun, especially in the technology business.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:40 | 3154281 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Still a buy at $400. It's like revenue growth doesn't matter anymore. They still have no debt. So your margins compress... Sell more. Not complicated. The only thing that really sucks with apple is their cloud technology, but watch how little first mover advantage is in that space: amazon.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 13:01 | 3154358 Argonaught
Argonaught's picture

Apple is a marketing company.  They take stuff that others make and they package it in a stylish way.  The problem is that other companies (those that actually innovate tecnilogically) realized that Apple was right about the size of the market and have jumped in.  The stuff coming out of Samsung and Google today is orders of magnitude more functional, and also has cool gizmos and sleek designs.  When Apple copied the design of the Galaxy SIII, and called it the "revolutionary iPhone 5", it was the sign that the game was changing and not in Apple's favor.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 14:05 | 3154559 koaj
koaj's picture

the tipping point for apple was their successful lawsuit against samsung. once you think you can rule the world you are suddenly very defeatable

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:52 | 3154317 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture
NY state manufacturing contracts for a 6th month in Jan

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/15/usa-economy-nyfed-idUSL2N0AK2O...

Damnit...wrong post again

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:53 | 3154326 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

AAPL follows the NASDAQ100 - and the 100 is turning down.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/nasdaq100-daily-gaps-down-on-higher-vol...

 

The bulk of AAPL's revenue is from hardware.  If there's any questions as to where that leads (very low margins), go ask Dell.  You know, the guys that are going private.

 

Even the kids are getting tired of Apple. http://bgr.com/2013/01/10/iphone-surface-teen-survey-287400/?utm_source=...

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 13:17 | 3154398 adr
adr's picture

Hype has about a four year shelf life. Check just about anything for the past 20 years. How long was the iPod truly popular? OW LONG DID MySpace last? How long did the iPhone stay on top?

What hit mainstream about four years ago that was endlessly hyped, that seems to be losing its allure and popularity?

Hmmm, something that has hd a nice run the past month announcing something big today.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:57 | 3154338 XtraBullish
XtraBullish's picture

BUY AAPL now! I would rather own AAPL and jettison the toilet paper that Benji's fiat is becoming. The crash in th currency's purchasing power will propel AAPL to $1,500 per share in inflation-adjusted FRN's by 2015. NEVER understimate the replacement power of stocks within an inflationary Zimbabwe-esque spiral.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 14:30 | 3154649 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

The problem is that it's a multinational company.  One that sources all of its production outside of the U.S., and counts a large part of it's margins on international sales.  Lots and lots of uncertainty around relative performance due to currency decisions.  Stocks might only double in the face of a 10x deval.  

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 12:57 | 3154342 rokka
rokka's picture

Has been any of those analysts fined or at least fired? 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 13:04 | 3154368 Titus Flavius C...
Titus Flavius Caesar Vespasianus Augustus's picture

Apple always has a few tricks up their sleeve.

I suspect, since Samsung has been eating their lunch with the S3 and Note - you'll see an iphone 'phablet' with which they'll get back some market share.   Then there will be the hologram keyboard, and maybe eventually a hologram AI Siri. 

The competition will make them better. They are fat with cash and talent.  I think they need to focus on low-cost no frills product, even if done through a spin off.  We should be nearing the time of $100 tablets which generate revenue on the kindle model - just send folks to the apple store and partners.

 

I don't see a lot of other companies with their talent and history of adaptability.  But I expect the sell off will continue for a while.  I'm going to give it another $30 or so and start creeping back in.

 

But then, I've also been buying Samsung for 3 years.  Love them, too.

 

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 13:12 | 3154386 adr
adr's picture

Apple is worth what they sell, not what a house full of idiots say it is worth. Why is Apple still even worth close to $500 a share. The fucking stock was going up at a rate of $100 a month last year, why? Future growth?

Fools chasing fools con men selling to other con men. All the while the directors laugh eating $400 plate dinners while looking at yacht brochures because they can issue themselves more paper at ever greater values, not earning a dime and up until a month ago, pay 15% tax on it.

The iPhone was evolutionary, not revolutionary. The groundwork for the iPhone was laid by students in college in the late '90s. I was there at CMU coming up with interfaces and programming things that are still beyond the capabilities of devices currently available, along with just about everyone else in my class. The problem with research work, is that it is hard to patent ideas. Especially with the government involved.

Steve Jobs was a fucking prick. All of the guys in my class went to see him present the Next. We walked away discussing what a self loving narcissistic asshole he was.

What the man did know is that hype trumps everything else in America once Wall Street took over. America isn't just shallow, it's a flat plain that can't hold water. Jobs also knew hype is fleeting, which is why he kept one product and obsoleced it every six months. Focusing on brand, not product. The iPhone is an overpriced piece of Chinese garbage with an obsolete OS that can't compete on features with an Android phone from three years ago. BUT IT HAS AN APPLE LOGO.

The people that worhip Apple took on the personaility of the company. Jobbs was a self loving narcisstic asshole. Aplle followers became self loving narcisstic assholes that loved to shove Apple is the face of anyone that walked by.

Tell me, who is Tim Cook? What is his presented personality? The sheep won't follow a shepherd with no direction. Like brainwashed zombies who have just heard the secret word to break the spell, the Apple faithful have actually looked at the product they adored and said, wait a minute what's so great about this thing. Amazing how a cult disbands if the leader is gone.

A whole lot of people follow a dictator who means to march them off to death. It makes them feel like they are a part of something big. They may not be the same, but as long as they wear a swatis... Apple logo, they are equal. The billionaire and the janitor have equal standing in the eyes of the faithful when holding an iPhone5 to their ear.

Apple can't compete in price, they can't compete in innovation, and they can't compete in features. If the allure of the logo has faded, then the age of Apple is over.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 15:41 | 3154919 reTARD
reTARD's picture

I work with Macheads who have zero problem spending (actually wasting) taxpayer money on everything Apple when there are easily third-party and alternative products. They are completely arrogant with regard to Apple while never considering and even bad-mouthing other products/solutions with their ignorance. I know because I am surrounded by these people everyday. There is no perfect product or solution. At the very least be honest about that!

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 13:14 | 3154389 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

I find it amusing that the ad next to this article is "Buy Apple Now! As low as $50!", which I assume is the price of some ETF that gives fractional shares of AAPL. Ding, ding, ding.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 13:17 | 3154399 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

The apple must always fall of the tree.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 14:21 | 3154610 ElixirMixer
ElixirMixer's picture

The WSJ report was a joke. Apple will again print record earnings and this whole dip will quickly be forgotten.

If you shorted the dip, congrats, but get out while you can.

Tue, 01/15/2013 - 15:05 | 3154786 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Where's Reggie?

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