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Complete The Following Sequence...
Some have argued that the market is dead. They may be right, as the following sequence of S&P 500 closes from the past 5 days:
1472, 1472, 1471, 1472, 1473
...suggests that V-Fib has set in among the equity indices. Perhaps, as the movie Flatliners noted "Some Lines [like SPX 1470] Shouldn't Be Crossed."
And maybe this sums up the lifeless corpse even better:
Today, $SPY had the fewest NBBO price changes since Jan 3, 2011
— Eric Scott Hunsader (@nanexllc) January 17, 2013
Meanwhile the 10Y Treasury yield has slipped from 1.90% to 1.82% over the same period.
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1472?
What's the culprit here? Algos?
There is no market anymore. The demise started with the forcefeeding of pension money into the share market, then got worse as the dumb money is managed by a few large players that can set prices. At heart, the problem is the divorce of ownership and control, but that is a whole other subject.
Imagine a market for gizmos, with many buyers and sellers. In this efficient market, absent cartels, the gizmo price would be fair reflection of value as the term is understood, and even an uninformed gizmo buyer would get a fair market price. Now imagine that every day a busload of tourists are forced to buy gizmos, any gizmo, at a price at which a few major colluding sellers set. This forcefed torrent of money would destroy the efficient gizmo market and remove price discovery. The gizmo price would be inflated until it crashed.
Ah, the classic gizmo analogy. I like to use widgets as well.
1472 was a leap year started on Wednesday.
Updated, 2012, 2012, 2008, 2012, 2013...
2012 was a leap year started on Sunday.
"we will not monetize the debt"?
Yes
Not just yes...but absolutely. If you look at the last five days on SPY...each close was "sold to you." Check the volume. Poor helmet wearing algos...the slow ones...as they have been left with the bill at the close each day.
In the meantime, lots of stocks have already peaked and are turning. Just punch up your favorite stock in the homebuilder related group.
This is how the turn looks. Not everything in the universe is "V" shaped.
looks more like ^^^
although we'd like it to be
"...suggests that V-Fib has set in among the equity indices."
I don't care how bad it gets I ain't giving Bernanke mouth to mouth. No way in hell.
<BTW the answer is 42.>
One of my faves to read growing up.
All this time I thought that 42 referred to this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wDEpXRMlVg
1473.
1475
1450
1400
0
1471
dont underestimate the power of zirp
http://www.frbsf.org/education/activities/chairman/
from the hedge a while back
Hilarious!
I set the Fed funds rate to 1.5% and let 'er ride:
By mid-2016 UE locked to funds rate (ha!) @ 1.5%.
By simulation end after 16Qs infaltion was @ 18.10%
By their own model, yes? Brilliant!
stack-stack-stack
There is a force behind the scene busting a nut to keep this market from going down.
What we see is a flat line.
LOL! You are probably right. I can just see all the Princeton grads with their calculators telling the operators to buy, buy, buy!
The German 10year (bund) auction? 1.560 vs 1.400previous. Does that imply lack of demand, or that "Piigs" have fixed things?(spreads will close) I have noticed some spread widening over the last week, with Italy,Spain,France.
Personally I think Germany is losing purchasing power, and repatriating XAU to shore up it's trade deficits.
Seems that PPT is determined not to give Tom DeMark his 13th count, a close above 1474.50.
They cant keep resisting the rise. One day this resolve will break!!
can't go up...or sell off ensues
can't go down...or sell off ensues
answer ---> go sideways
Do these numbers matter in real terms?
Rates at zero mean an infinite amount of fiat printing (because to keep rates at zero....) and even with massive deflation in RE, earnings, and all that, inflation is raging like a dungeon dragon, scorching the earth and all paper into burnt confetti.
The chart and fundamentals would say top if using a netric of wealth like gold backed money, but the currency is fake and backed by stardust, unicorns, and mermaids.
Agree. Crashing upwards. Game over man, gameover.
It sure is wrapping up, isn't it. The Great Gun Grab has started, Bernanke doesn't think we need a debt ceiling (Print, Baby! Print!), Krugman wants to try his hand at alchemy with his trillion dollar coin (has bonzai done a Krugman as Dr EVil yet?), and yet the world keeps spinning around with important questions being answered like who is the Eagles new head coach and is he a good fit? Why does Homey Boo Boo's mom hate mayonaisse? Where did Jennifer Aniston vacation for New Years?
LMAO!! Yes indeedy... as usual Mr Hendrix, you hit the nail on the head. I'm looking forward to it tho... this has been forever in coming.
"World's End at Bernanke's"
"We can't miss the party! Prop the corpse up, extend and pretend."
M. L/H ( fundamentals as in macro)? I've always liked you. ) In real terms, visit your local grocery store/
( You will walk away in reality.) I agree with you, just from a different perspective.
I go to the grocery store everyday, and, I swear, the sandwhiches are getting smaller.
I like you too, sir.
If you have any trades worth mentioning don't be scered to post them up. Might as well count the icebergs while our ship runs into them.
All hail Bernanke! The greatest captain in the world!
Hey there is another idea for Bonzai, unless he has used it....
Bernanke dressed as the Titanic ship captain drunk aboard the ship.
Will do Mr. L.H.
The only trade I see right now, is about 1 hour in front of me, (currently). Billy-7 never runs out of ideas. ;-)
Paging Dr. Hunsader... Dr. Hunsader to the morgue please.
Panic buying soon
Who's left to buy?
The new Treasury guy, Jack "Loopy Jew" Lew.
since the beginning of the year VIX and VXN have both fallen over 25%.
this only bring one conclusion : the top is in
they dont want fuck with Germany to much here
Fuck "Flatliners"! "Jumpers" is where it's at! I want my Bugatti for free!
1492?
Eh... no: 42?
It is like throwing a ball up into the air. It kind of like hovers for a while before it comes down to earth.
The Market: I'm dead.
Bernanke: Long live The Market.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
if anything Bernak is stupid...
His field of study was The Great Depression and he still couldn't prevent another depression. Ironic aint it.
Bernanke is either stupid or chained by insane policies and hidden players so that all he can do is fart and moan and sit in the stinky diaper alan Greenspan made for him.
I suspect the HFT algorithm is probably a very, very basic equation. Trade the MA's, set up offers/dips in futures, ping pong bid/offers back into markets and try and suck in the liquidity providers i.e banks/Goldman's of the world via central banks.
The market is dead because it is no longer a price/discount mechanisms The scary part, the EU, IMF, Obama, of course the Fed all gauge economic health via the stock market.
I agree with what Marc Faber once said, 'one day there will be no market.'
Interestingly I think the goal of the establishment is to have a global market open 24/7 using a 'one world currency'. Imagine, no more NYSE, no more Nikkei, just one big fucking sloppy assed market. You can trade whatever you want, whenever you want, but you better get in, because prices fluctuate like everyday is May 5th!
I actually think that the market will break apart totally, it's fragile now with binary systems now all over the exchanges. It looks a like a futuristic version of fixed price markets, say communism (if it survived) in the future - the pricing would look like this, goverment prints, central bank prints, prices are fixed by the machines. It's a future nightmare that is happening now.
Faber refers to pricing cartels (Communism) that eventually collapse. Problem is, we are now one big global price fixed system. So the whole system will collapse.
The Fed should be deemed an incompetent and dangerous organization, they are to blame.
Obama should be crapping his pants.
you mean May 6 (2010)?
Yes there is no market now... any signs of life are now false electrical impulses from the CBs trying to shock the corpse
I believe algos consist of Manbelbrot sets measuring dimensionality.
These algos measure dimensionality between 2 and 3.
This will measure the rate at which time passes.
Newtonian physics assumes three dimensions x*y*z
Mandelbrot proposes dimensionality at any interval will be between 2 and 3.
The way I understand his theory is the closer to 3, dimensionality will be stable with less volatilty.
His theory assumed dimensionality is not scalar but varies depending on time and space, or the relation between the two.
It is hard to explain since Mandelbrot, may he rest in peace, never really gave a map on how to exploit his theory.
I suppose you could use layman terms and say time speeds up, (unstable) like the Lehman collapse, and time slows down like today.
I suppose he refutes the Black-Scholes claim to stability.
Interesting.
From memory, the Mandelbrot theory never really made it to markets apart from basic chaos theory that took care of any deterministic theory that market may have had in the past (only to return with Keynesian madness). But his equation is so elegant, but simple.
HFTs are parasites, they scavenge over news bites and trade all the MA's, you can watch it daily, bids, then offers to get dip buyers. At this point it appears other HFTs take the trade from other HFTs etc, liquidity is still coming from the larger traders i.e banks, wall street etc. It's a three way ping pong off the futures, liquidity providers and HFTs, most traders are adapting to the HFT ranges now, that is the danger, piling up on the supported moving averages - hence a flatline. Look at the Dow, it's lagging behind the S&P that is now at Nov high 2012. It looks like the HFTs have taken out the stops and crowded the trade.
Did you mean Mandelbrot sets? You have to see what these algos have drawn => http://www.nanex.net/aqck2/3597.html
nanex
Yes. I meant Mandelbrot.
The nanex charts look very familiar. I can even see the null set in one.
I have read as much of his work as I can find. I suspect he wrote proprietary trading software since there is, really, no indication he was working on anything other than writing occasionally and I surmise he was working bound by non-disclosure agreements. I just hope he got a percentage. I did read the (Mis)Behavior of Markets, his last book.
What did this guy do since working for IBM?
I assume he was writing code for Goldman-Sachs proprietary trading desk and the algos that now run the market.
They should really charge a penny for cancelling an order. That would stop the algos.
Thanks for sharing.
For the oldies (relax, the ganja will be free, get some community spirit);
The calm before the Storm
For the algos (with a nod to our French new-wave cinema La Haine that's just kicked off);
La perspective de jouir demain ne me consolera jamais de l’ennui d’aujourd’hui.
For the 2.0's (with an 80's rock flavour in honour of our Trader friends, with a nod to 3:21);
Der Mensch ist Etwas, das überwunden werden soll. Was habt ihr gethan, ihn zu überwinden?
Some one decipher this bullshit for me?
19:30 AUD Employment Change -5.5K 4.5K 17.1K 19:30 AUD Unemployment Rate 5.4% 5.4% 5.3%It's rather obvious, isn't it?
Not really. Why don't you have a go at it? I'm all ears.
19:30 AUD Employment Change -5.5K 4.5K 17.1K 19:30 AUD Unemployment Rate 5.4% 5.4% 5.3%
Without a direct link, I can't see the inputs because I'm not in front of the same terminal as you, but here's a guess:
Month 1: -5.5k (5.5k jobs lost) Month 2: 4.5k (4.5k jobs gained) Month 3: 17.1k (17.1k jobs gained)
What is the number you're factoring this against? Against, say, total jobs 100k (Iceland), these are big shifts. Against total jobs 100,000,000 (America) these are totally negligible. i.e. Less than 10k shift = doesn't show up to 1 decimal place, which is supported by the data you've presented. i.e. +/- <10k = no change. +/- >10k = 0.1 shift in expression.
So, to explain: the decimal scale being shown is too coarse to parse under 10k shift - when it goes over 10k, you get shown a 0.1% shift in job creation.
Do I get to charge you $1k for this as well?
Hey "Traffic Sign".
Yeah, then my answer is correct if I do a swift Google of the AUS employment total. (Different notations in this country).
The proportion of people (aged 15 years and over) who were working increased from 57% in 1979 to 62% in 2009, from 6.1 million people in 1979 to 10.8 million in 2009.
Very roughly, 10k is 0.1% of 10mil working pop (+/- variance), and no, I don't need to look at current stats, my guess is basically confirmed at this point. I was going to factor in aggregated numbers but there's no need. Roughly put - you need >10k shift for it to show on your measurements, as the gradient is fairly coarse. This might be 12k or 13k depending on the current total, but the theory is the same.
Glad to be of help. Oh, and LOL @ ZH. I post the correct solution, and someone junks me. WINNING.
i love how the first tab is "TV Listings"
that's funny shit YC
Market's not doing much, guess he's bored.
> www. Let me watch this . ch
Only ever visit the gold star tagged targets, never download anything, and you'll be safe. [Putlocker / Sockshare etc]
Or http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/ if you've a need to be legal.
I contemplated cutting my open windows. I like (SYFY).
A.E.Ex. you understand why I didn't highlight the last figure/ 5.3% ?
Pro tip: Before uploading any picture to even a fairly anonymously decent service like imageshack etc, right click it, >properties > details > select "remove properties and personal information" and save it as a new version you'll upload.
A lot of otherwise smart people get tagged by file associations and data tagged onto piccies.
In answer:
Nope. I might have been "too math smart for the ending here". I'll all ears, I'm a minnow, so open to learning.
HMM. Ok, Inflation expectations? 2.0% > 1.8%? The fact that a -0.1% uptick is being expressed as a 0.2% decrease in inflation? Be nice, I was honest in my answer!
I'm pretty sure we're ok on this end. You do know why I didn't highlight 5.3%? It certainly wasn't your [CAUTION SIGN]
Avatar. Let's stay on topic. Did you use the gift I gave you to open the revisions?
The only gifts I've had recently have been of naked women talking to me in my dreams. Unless we're counting a 'native American' with an all too perfect record collection?
Interesting.
But no, to skip the meta, I'm totally clueless about this data point - been up too long, and not focused at the moment. Too much Conrad at this point, and looking at another blood-bath in the HoD; the imagery I can take from the Traffic Sign is the response of the EU: ""I think we can say that the existential threat against the euro has essentially been overcome," he told a conference in his native Portugal on Monday. "In 2013 the question won't be if the euro will, or will not implode."
Sorry to disappoint, but I'm not perfect. [and communication via anything connected to ZH is impossible, since all sign-ins are ghosted on an open connection, and emails were one-use-only]
If you're looking for tips, Might I suggest a new pack of pencils?
Well, I suppose I've already proved I hold the sharpener in this exchange, so fair enough.
fair enough. trade well. Is that? ( eat your peas)
I'm not here to trade, but thank you for the good feeling.
As for peas, sadly I'm of the carnivorous persuasion, although I suppose unlike many here I put strict limits on my appetites. Bit of a hybrid at this moment in time.
Good luck; as for trade, look at UK retail crashing, and one single upside to it (planning departments lifting certain measures, expect the big four supermarches to expand).
[ Enjoy your superfluous] Trading ignorance.
Tyler - please ask them to f***ing flatline the RUT?
I'm still an SP 450 fan. Things will really have to fly apart to achieve that. Not hard to believe since there is no recovery. All the efforts are doing is avoiding the crash. Not a good situation. This market is manipulated to an unbelievable height now, it is almost unthinkable of how they can get it any higher but digital zeros and computers have come a long way.
I'm not certain the FED reflated the bubble to increase investment and stabilze the system. I think they reinflated it because it is the only economic number broadcast everyday and night and thus a potent propaganda tool.
It's shortcut thinking for the drones who only see headlines and never look for facts, "see we are recovering the stock market is doing fine." Depression, what depression? This is just a very gradual recovery. Of course with Ben's perspective a valley is just an inverted hill.
so the market is pumped by the fed to convince the sheep everything is fine and there is no fire and no that isn't smoke you smell. Odd way to make a living isn't it?
Yen, ASX200 is your short. When? I dunno, but hell that is juicy, very juicy.
Meantime HFTs are taken out stops galore, same with the S&P last session. Could be a last gasp rally, you would have to be a brave bull to start calling a breakout.
Not yet (chump666). I have been hedging eur/aud intraday, vs 1/3rd aud/usd and 1/3rd aud/jpy. I really want to tear into gbp/jpy, but the base currency is getting beat up . Mr. Carney seems to be "tempering the teapot" S/T. Pretty much made my quarter over the last 10 days. Buying more gold,silver,platinum, Private REIT's.
Chump the markets are choppy intraday.,use M-15 charts. I'll be trading with you guys for the next few days. remember the goal posts Chump. (50 & 100 bars)in your time frame. Screw B-Bands. This is all price action trading.
I'm using 10-20-50-100-200 MA's in every chart! (weighted and exponential)
Schwing! That worked nicely.
BTFD CHUMP666.
Love to see packet traffic on Nanex.com for this week.
Has anyone figured out which algos are being funded by the Fed?
take the 6 to Reston?
Tip. E. Canoe.? > Gator? HELP!
YC, search the hedge...no not this one, the original from back in the day...look for the Hand...no, not that one, the other one.
(hint: you may have to take a detour to meet a friend of a friend of another friend to find it.)
good luck
The saying "Never short a dull market" requires replacing the word "dull" with manipulated. 1475 is Prechter's last stop per his November newsletter. Heck I've been short two years what's another 5-7% squeeze given the risk reward? Tim Knight pointed out 4 "Hangman" closes after today. I like the sound of that though I don't know candlesticks ( either ).
Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to "margin management". You have multiple trades open.
YOU all want those trades to stay open! (margin management)
Damn, I love volatility!
Chump666, I'm ripping charts. I still see all those weekends in December,[chart studies] as a major roadblock in the 1.0443 area.
ASX composite-ASX common- are overbought. 38.6% retrace puts 6800.? In sight, wit both indexes.
Working from my phone.
It's that damned 807/8 number, the S&P 500 has rebounded about 807 points from its 2009 lows of the demonic 666 number. For some reason the S&P 500 just can't catch a bid above 1473...
"There are no markets anymore, just interventions"
soon it'll be
"There are no interventions anymore, just life support"