Complete The Following Sequence...
Some have argued that the market is dead. They may be right, as the following sequence of S&P 500 closes from the past 5 days:
1472, 1472, 1471, 1472, 1473
...suggests that V-Fib has set in among the equity indices. Perhaps, as the movie Flatliners noted "Some Lines [like SPX 1470] Shouldn't Be Crossed."
And maybe this sums up the lifeless corpse even better:
Today, $SPY had the fewest NBBO price changes since Jan 3, 2011
— Eric Scott Hunsader (@nanexllc) January 17, 2013
Meanwhile the 10Y Treasury yield has slipped from 1.90% to 1.82% over the same period.
(6 votes)
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1472?
What's the culprit here? Algos?
There is no market anymore. The demise started with the forcefeeding of pension money into the share market, then got worse as the dumb money is managed by a few large players that can set prices. At heart, the problem is the divorce of ownership and control, but that is a whole other subject.
Imagine a market for gizmos, with many buyers and sellers. In this efficient market, absent cartels, the gizmo price would be fair reflection of value as the term is understood, and even an uninformed gizmo buyer would get a fair market price. Now imagine that every day a busload of tourists are forced to buy gizmos, any gizmo, at a price at which a few major colluding sellers set. This forcefed torrent of money would destroy the efficient gizmo market and remove price discovery. The gizmo price would be inflated until it crashed.
Ah, the classic gizmo analogy. I like to use widgets as well.
1472 was a leap year started on Wednesday.
Updated, 2012, 2012, 2008, 2012, 2013...
2012 was a leap year started on Sunday.
"we will not monetize the debt"?
Yes
Not just yes...but absolutely. If you look at the last five days on SPY...each close was "sold to you." Check the volume. Poor helmet wearing algos...the slow ones...as they have been left with the bill at the close each day.
In the meantime, lots of stocks have already peaked and are turning. Just punch up your favorite stock in the homebuilder related group.
This is how the turn looks. Not everything in the universe is "V" shaped.
looks more like ^^^
although we'd like it to be
"...suggests that V-Fib has set in among the equity indices."
I don't care how bad it gets I ain't giving Bernanke mouth to mouth. No way in hell.
<BTW the answer is 42.>
One of my faves to read growing up.
All this time I thought that 42 referred to this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wDEpXRMlVg
1473.
1475
1450
1400
0
1471
dont underestimate the power of zirp
http://www.frbsf.org/education/activities/chairman/
from the hedge a while back
Hilarious!
I set the Fed funds rate to 1.5% and let 'er ride:
By mid-2016 UE locked to funds rate (ha!) @ 1.5%.
By simulation end after 16Qs infaltion was @ 18.10%
By their own model, yes? Brilliant!
stack-stack-stack
There is a force behind the scene busting a nut to keep this market from going down.
What we see is a flat line.
LOL! You are probably right. I can just see all the Princeton grads with their calculators telling the operators to buy, buy, buy!
The German 10year (bund) auction? 1.560 vs 1.400previous. Does that imply lack of demand, or that "Piigs" have fixed things?(spreads will close) I have noticed some spread widening over the last week, with Italy,Spain,France.
Personally I think Germany is losing purchasing power, and repatriating XAU to shore up it's trade deficits.
Seems that PPT is determined not to give Tom DeMark his 13th count, a close above 1474.50.
They cant keep resisting the rise. One day this resolve will break!!
can't go up...or sell off ensues
can't go down...or sell off ensues
answer ---> go sideways
Do these numbers matter in real terms?
Rates at zero mean an infinite amount of fiat printing (because to keep rates at zero....) and even with massive deflation in RE, earnings, and all that, inflation is raging like a dungeon dragon, scorching the earth and all paper into burnt confetti.
The chart and fundamentals would say top if using a netric of wealth like gold backed money, but the currency is fake and backed by stardust, unicorns, and mermaids.
Agree. Crashing upwards. Game over man, gameover.
It sure is wrapping up, isn't it. The Great Gun Grab has started, Bernanke doesn't think we need a debt ceiling (Print, Baby! Print!), Krugman wants to try his hand at alchemy with his trillion dollar coin (has bonzai done a Krugman as Dr EVil yet?), and yet the world keeps spinning around with important questions being answered like who is the Eagles new head coach and is he a good fit? Why does Homey Boo Boo's mom hate mayonaisse? Where did Jennifer Aniston vacation for New Years?
LMAO!! Yes indeedy... as usual Mr Hendrix, you hit the nail on the head. I'm looking forward to it tho... this has been forever in coming.
"World's End at Bernanke's"
"We can't miss the party! Prop the corpse up, extend and pretend."
M. L/H ( fundamentals as in macro)? I've always liked you. ) In real terms, visit your local grocery store/
( You will walk away in reality.) I agree with you, just from a different perspective.
I go to the grocery store everyday, and, I swear, the sandwhiches are getting smaller.
I like you too, sir.
If you have any trades worth mentioning don't be scered to post them up. Might as well count the icebergs while our ship runs into them.
All hail Bernanke! The greatest captain in the world!
Hey there is another idea for Bonzai, unless he has used it....
Bernanke dressed as the Titanic ship captain drunk aboard the ship.
Will do Mr. L.H.
The only trade I see right now, is about 1 hour in front of me, (currently). Billy-7 never runs out of ideas. ;-)
Paging Dr. Hunsader... Dr. Hunsader to the morgue please.
Panic buying soon
Who's left to buy?
The new Treasury guy, Jack "Loopy Jew" Lew.
since the beginning of the year VIX and VXN have both fallen over 25%.
this only bring one conclusion : the top is in
they dont want fuck with Germany to much here
Fuck "Flatliners"! "Jumpers" is where it's at! I want my Bugatti for free!
1492?
Eh... no: 42?
It is like throwing a ball up into the air. It kind of like hovers for a while before it comes down to earth.
The Market: I'm dead.
Bernanke: Long live The Market.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
if anything Bernak is stupid...
His field of study was The Great Depression and he still couldn't prevent another depression. Ironic aint it.
Bernanke is either stupid or chained by insane policies and hidden players so that all he can do is fart and moan and sit in the stinky diaper alan Greenspan made for him.
I suspect the HFT algorithm is probably a very, very basic equation. Trade the MA's, set up offers/dips in futures, ping pong bid/offers back into markets and try and suck in the liquidity providers i.e banks/Goldman's of the world via central banks.
The market is dead because it is no longer a price/discount mechanisms The scary part, the EU, IMF, Obama, of course the Fed all gauge economic health via the stock market.
I agree with what Marc Faber once said, 'one day there will be no market.'
Interestingly I think the goal of the establishment is to have a global market open 24/7 using a 'one world currency'. Imagine, no more NYSE, no more Nikkei, just one big fucking sloppy assed market. You can trade whatever you want, whenever you want, but you better get in, because prices fluctuate like everyday is May 5th!
I actually think that the market will break apart totally, it's fragile now with binary systems now all over the exchanges. It looks a like a futuristic version of fixed price markets, say communism (if it survived) in the future - the pricing would look like this, goverment prints, central bank prints, prices are fixed by the machines. It's a future nightmare that is happening now.
Faber refers to pricing cartels (Communism) that eventually collapse. Problem is, we are now one big global price fixed system. So the whole system will collapse.
The Fed should be deemed an incompetent and dangerous organization, they are to blame.
Obama should be crapping his pants.
you mean May 6 (2010)?
Yes there is no market now... any signs of life are now false electrical impulses from the CBs trying to shock the corpse
I believe algos consist of Manbelbrot sets measuring dimensionality.
These algos measure dimensionality between 2 and 3.
This will measure the rate at which time passes.
Newtonian physics assumes three dimensions x*y*z
Mandelbrot proposes dimensionality at any interval will be between 2 and 3.
The way I understand his theory is the closer to 3, dimensionality will be stable with less volatilty.
His theory assumed dimensionality is not scalar but varies depending on time and space, or the relation between the two.
It is hard to explain since Mandelbrot, may he rest in peace, never really gave a map on how to exploit his theory.
I suppose you could use layman terms and say time speeds up, (unstable) like the Lehman collapse, and time slows down like today.
I suppose he refutes the Black-Scholes claim to stability.
Interesting.