• Monetary Metals
    05/02/2016 - 01:28
    The price of gold shot up this week, and silver moved proportionally. Headlines are screaming for gold to hit $10,000 or $50,000. Does this alleged new bull market have legs?

Complete The Following Sequence...

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Some have argued that the market is dead. They may be right, as the following sequence of S&P 500 closes from the past 5 days:

1472, 1472, 1471, 1472, 1473

...suggests that V-Fib has set in among the equity indices. Perhaps, as the movie Flatliners noted "Some Lines [like SPX 1470] Shouldn't Be Crossed."

And maybe this sums up the lifeless corpse even better:

 

Meanwhile the 10Y Treasury yield has slipped from 1.90% to 1.82% over the same period.

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Wed, 01/16/2013 - 23:48 | 3161090 chump666
chump666's picture

From memory, the Mandelbrot theory never really made it to markets apart from basic chaos theory that took care of any deterministic theory that market may have had in the past (only to return with Keynesian madness).  But his equation is so elegant, but simple. 

HFTs are parasites, they scavenge over news bites and trade all the MA's, you can watch it daily, bids, then offers to get dip buyers.  At this point it appears other HFTs take the trade from other HFTs etc, liquidity is still coming from the larger traders i.e banks, wall street etc.  It's a three way ping pong off the futures, liquidity providers and HFTs, most traders are adapting to the HFT ranges now, that is the danger, piling up on the supported moving averages - hence a flatline.  Look at the Dow, it's lagging behind the S&P that is now at Nov high 2012.  It looks like the HFTs have taken out the stops and crowded the trade. 

 

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 23:49 | 3161093 nanex
nanex's picture

Did you mean Mandelbrot sets? You have to see what these algos have drawn => http://www.nanex.net/aqck2/3597.html

 

nanex

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 08:56 | 3161664 helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

Yes. I meant Mandelbrot. 

The nanex charts look very familiar. I can even see the null set in one.

I have read as much of his work as I can find. I suspect he wrote proprietary trading software since there is, really, no indication he was working on anything other than writing occasionally and I surmise he was working bound by non-disclosure agreements. I just hope he got a percentage. I did read the (Mis)Behavior of Markets, his last book.

What did this guy do since working for IBM?

I assume he was writing code for Goldman-Sachs proprietary trading desk and the algos that now run the market.

They should really charge a penny for cancelling an order. That would stop the algos.

Thanks for sharing.

 

 

 

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 20:40 | 3160453 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

For the oldies (relax, the ganja will be free, get some community spirit);

The calm before the Storm

For the algos (with a nod to our French new-wave cinema La Haine that's just kicked off);

La perspective de jouir demain ne me consolera jamais de l’ennui d’aujourd’hui.

For the 2.0's (with an 80's rock flavour in honour of our Trader friends, with a nod to 3:21);

Der Mensch ist Etwas, das überwunden werden soll. Was habt ihr gethan, ihn zu überwinden?

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 20:45 | 3160483 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Some one decipher this bullshit for me?

 

 

 

19:30   AUD     Employment Change -5.5K 4.5K 17.1K   19:30   AUD     Unemployment Rate 5.4% 5.4% 5.3%
Wed, 01/16/2013 - 20:49 | 3160501 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

It's rather obvious, isn't it?

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 21:43 | 3160678 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Not really. Why don't you have a go at it? I'm all ears.

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 21:54 | 3160718 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

19:30   AUD     Employment Change -5.5K 4.5K 17.1K   19:30   AUD     Unemployment Rate 5.4% 5.4% 5.3%

Without a direct link, I can't see the inputs because I'm not in front of the same terminal as you, but here's a guess:

 

Month 1: -5.5k  (5.5k jobs lost) Month 2: 4.5k (4.5k jobs gained) Month 3: 17.1k (17.1k jobs gained)

What is the number you're factoring this against? Against, say, total jobs 100k (Iceland), these are big shifts. Against total jobs 100,000,000 (America) these are totally negligible. i.e. Less than 10k shift = doesn't show up to 1 decimal place, which is supported by the data you've presented. i.e. +/- <10k = no change. +/- >10k = 0.1 shift in expression.

 

So, to explain: the decimal scale being shown is too coarse to parse under 10k shift - when it goes over 10k, you get shown a 0.1% shift in job creation.

 

 

Do I get to charge you $1k for this as well?

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 21:55 | 3160732 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Hey "Traffic Sign".

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 22:13 | 3160750 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Yeah, then my answer is correct if I do a swift Google of the AUS employment total. (Different notations in this country).

The proportion of people (aged 15 years and over) who were working increased from 57% in 1979 to 62% in 2009, from 6.1 million people in 1979 to 10.8 million in 2009.

 

Very roughly, 10k is 0.1% of 10mil working pop (+/- variance), and no, I don't need to look at current stats, my guess is basically confirmed at this point. I was going to factor in aggregated numbers but there's no need. Roughly put - you need >10k shift for it to show on your measurements, as the gradient is fairly coarse. This might be 12k or 13k depending on the current total, but the theory is the same.

 

Glad to be of help. Oh, and LOL @ ZH. I post the correct solution, and someone junks me. WINNING.

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 22:06 | 3160784 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

i love how the first tab is "TV Listings"

that's funny shit YC

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 22:12 | 3160793 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Market's not doing much, guess he's bored.

> www. Let me watch this . ch

Only ever visit the gold star tagged targets, never download anything, and you'll be safe. [Putlocker / Sockshare etc]

Or http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/ if you've a need to be legal.

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 22:21 | 3160840 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I contemplated cutting my open windows. I like (SYFY).

 A.E.Ex. you understand why I didn't highlight the last figure/ 5.3% ?

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 22:29 | 3160850 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Pro tip: Before uploading any picture to even a fairly anonymously decent service like imageshack etc, right click it, >properties > details > select "remove properties and personal information" and save it as a new version you'll upload.

A lot of otherwise smart people get tagged by file associations and data tagged onto piccies.

In answer:

Nope. I might have been "too math smart for the ending here". I'll all ears, I'm a minnow, so open to learning.

HMM. Ok, Inflation expectations? 2.0% > 1.8%? The fact that a -0.1% uptick is being expressed as a 0.2% decrease in inflation? Be nice, I was honest in my answer!

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 22:30 | 3160879 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I'm pretty sure we're ok on this end.  You do  know why I didn't highlight 5.3%? It certainly wasn't your [CAUTION SIGN]

 Avatar. Let's stay on topic. Did you use the gift I gave you to open the revisions?

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 22:51 | 3160919 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

The only gifts I've had recently have been of naked women talking to me in my dreams. Unless we're counting a 'native American' with an all too perfect record collection?

Interesting.

But no, to skip the meta, I'm totally clueless about this data point - been up too long, and not focused at the moment. Too much Conrad at this point, and looking at another blood-bath in the HoD; the imagery I can take from the Traffic Sign is the response of the EU: ""I think we can say that the existential threat against the euro has essentially been overcome," he told a conference in his native Portugal on Monday. "In 2013 the question won't be if the euro will, or will not implode."

 

Sorry to disappoint, but I'm not perfect. [and communication via anything connected to ZH is impossible, since all sign-ins are ghosted on an open connection, and emails were one-use-only]

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 23:02 | 3160969 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 If you're looking for tips, Might I suggest a new pack of pencils?

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 23:08 | 3160987 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Well, I suppose I've already proved I hold the sharpener in this exchange, so fair enough.

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 23:40 | 3161045 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 fair enough. trade well. Is that? ( eat your peas)

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 23:50 | 3161087 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

I'm not here to trade, but thank you for the good feeling.

As for peas, sadly I'm of the carnivorous persuasion, although I suppose unlike many here I put strict limits on my appetites. Bit of a hybrid at this moment in time.

 

 

 

Good luck; as for trade, look at UK retail crashing, and one single upside to it (planning departments lifting certain measures, expect the big four supermarches to expand).

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 00:00 | 3161124 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    [ Enjoy your superfluous] Trading ignorance.

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 21:23 | 3160611 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Tyler - please ask them to f***ing flatline the RUT?

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 21:55 | 3160735 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I'm still an SP 450 fan.  Things will really have to fly apart to achieve that. Not hard to believe since there is no recovery.  All the efforts are doing is avoiding the crash.  Not a good situation.   This market is manipulated to an unbelievable height now, it is almost unthinkable of how they can get it any higher but digital zeros and computers have come a long way.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 02:24 | 3161382 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

I'm not certain the FED reflated the bubble to increase investment and stabilze the system. I think they reinflated it because it is the only economic number broadcast everyday and night and thus a potent propaganda tool.

 

It's shortcut thinking for the drones who only see headlines and never look for facts, "see we are recovering the stock market is doing fine." Depression, what depression? This is just a very gradual recovery. Of course with Ben's perspective a valley is just an inverted hill.

 

so the market is pumped by the fed to convince the sheep everything is fine and there is no fire and no that isn't smoke you smell. Odd way to make a living isn't it?

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 22:31 | 3160881 chump666
chump666's picture

Yen, ASX200 is your short.  When? I dunno, but hell that is juicy, very juicy.

Meantime HFTs are taken out stops galore, same with the S&P last session.  Could be a last gasp rally, you would have to be a brave bull to start calling a breakout. 

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 03:19 | 3160915 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Not yet (chump666). I have been hedging eur/aud intraday, vs 1/3rd aud/usd and 1/3rd aud/jpy. I really want to tear into gbp/jpy, but the base currency is getting beat up .  Mr. Carney seems to be "tempering the teapot" S/T.  Pretty much made my quarter over the last 10 days. Buying more gold,silver,platinum, Private REIT's.

  Chump the markets are choppy intraday.,use M-15 charts. I'll be trading with you guys for the next few days. remember the goal posts Chump. (50 & 100 bars)in your time frame. Screw B-Bands. This is all price action trading.

  I'm using 10-20-50-100-200 MA's in every chart! (weighted and exponential)

Schwing! That worked nicely.

 BTFD CHUMP666.

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 22:37 | 3160892 MinnesotaMD
MinnesotaMD's picture

Love to see packet traffic on Nanex.com for this week.

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 22:35 | 3160894 MinnesotaMD
MinnesotaMD's picture

Has anyone figured out which algos are being funded by the Fed?

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 22:41 | 3160907 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

take the 6 to Reston?

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 23:32 | 3161049 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Tip. E. Canoe.? > Gator? HELP!

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 09:03 | 3161700 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

YC, search the hedge...no not this one, the original from back in the day...look for the Hand...no, not that one, the other one.

(hint: you may have to take a detour to meet a friend of a friend of another friend to find it.)

good luck

Wed, 01/16/2013 - 23:50 | 3161097 vft2212
vft2212's picture

The saying "Never short a dull market" requires replacing the word "dull" with manipulated. 1475 is Prechter's last stop per his November newsletter. Heck I've been short two years what's another 5-7% squeeze given the risk reward? Tim Knight pointed out 4 "Hangman" closes after today. I like the sound of that though I don't know candlesticks ( either ).

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 00:06 | 3161135 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to "margin management". You have multiple trades open.

 YOU all want those trades to stay open! (margin management)

 Damn, I love volatility!

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 00:16 | 3161167 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Chump666, I'm ripping charts. I still see all those weekends in December,[chart studies] as a major roadblock in the 1.0443 area.

  ASX composite-ASX common- are overbought. 38.6% retrace puts 6800.? In sight, wit both indexes.

 Working from my phone.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 05:23 | 3161518 Frastric
Frastric's picture

It's that damned 807/8 number, the S&P 500 has rebounded about 807 points from its 2009 lows of the demonic 666 number. For some reason the S&P 500 just can't catch a bid above 1473...

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 08:34 | 3161638 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

"There are no markets anymore, just interventions"

 

soon it'll be

"There are no interventions anymore, just life support"

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!