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Chart Of The Day: Housing Starts Adjusted vs Unadjusted
No commentary necessary.
And focusing only on the November to December "comparable" Seasonal adjustments, here is the move from November to December in 2010, 2011 and 2012. Spot the outlier:
Source: Housing Starts NSA; Housing Starts SA, December New Residential Construction
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So is that good news or bad news? What is a housing start anyway
What's up with the huge parabolic DAX spike (from negative to +0.8% within ~3 minutes) and EUR/USD drop?
Stop hunt? Anybody?
Probably because of someone protection their position for witching tomorrow
DAX and Copper went up vertical on no news ~3 minutes before official 8:30 am US data, EUR/USD went down at the same time.
Seasonally adjusted housing starts numbers don't mean much in the wintertime because volume is so low. But, the closing months of 2012 were certainly much better than the same months in 2011 an 2010, which can be corroborated from other sources not tainted by x-12 arima.
That's just someone playing on their computer. Pay no attention.
or, it's time to crash the dollar (because it's worthless).
"Someone" = Deutsche Bank
Bro....I'll buy you some champagne Bro...
FOR ZH:
This is just to say that the article at the top left of the main page does not load:
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-01-16/cia-and-other-government-agencies-dominate-movies-and-television
Anyone else having the same issue?
No problems here.
Go to the page.
Hold down the shift key
and click on the reload button in your brower.
or Clear cache and clear cookies.
I found the shift key but what's the reload botton on my brower?
ctrl + F4?
that should do ya
lol
Left Right Left Left Up Down Square Square Circle Triangle Down
<ctrl> + <R> on Firefox & IE(?)
or right click the tab & select "reload tab".
On Internet Explorer it is the round circle with the arrow embedded in it next to the "X" in the box where you type the web site address you wish to visit.
<Was that a test and did I pass? I'm over 50 so I get extra points if I did.>
The weekly doesn't match with the reality.
Both lines should follow each other like a flock of birds.
Well, if it's just a linear filter applied, then the only data fields which really matter is the entry which has now slipped off the filter (ie, 12 months ago), and the new entry (ie, this months entry). However, that would suggest truly atrocious data have recently been eliminated, but it would also suggest this recent development is about to come to a sudden end.
A 24-month (or longer, ideally) dataset would be quite interesting, as one should be able to deduce the weights used to calculate the adjusted.
I wish they would start those lines at the same point so I don't do what I just did. Which was wonder for about a minute "so..... we were building more houses than the seasonally adjusted number in 2011 but we're building fewer houses than the seasonally adjusted number in 2012??"
No, dum-dum (me) that's NOT what the graph says. It says the seasonally adjusted numbers have been showing a consistent and rising over-estimation of reality. Oh, OK, that makes more sense, I says to myself.
First off - I agree. It's complete bollocks.
But ATTEMPTING to justify this graph, imagine if the numbers from 12 months were truly awful. This would mean that if they were now replaced by better numbers, we'd see a strong growth in the adjusted number. Obviously, the weights can't be linear, or you'd just see the average of the unadjusted be the current adjusted, so there's some sort of magic in there. In fact, it's probably magic which is adjusted on a per-month basis (for some dubious reason cocksucking economics students wholeheartedly agree with), and for some even more dubious reason (OMG NATIONAL SECURITY!!eleventyone11) can't be released.
But given the unadjusted set of data, one MIGHT be able to at least come up with some sort of weight (and delta) estimate. Which no doubt would require intense doctoring and curve fitting.
they must be getting desperate...
Don't get me started!
It is really APARTMENT starts wagging this tail.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/01/17/2013-housing-recovery...
Renters A-Plenty
Yes, unfortunately, unemployed renters with no wages are a problem (unless they agree to ride a sationary bike and provide power for the rest of the building).
In my neck of the woods they are building houses that go unsold for many months ... not sure what that's all about guess it's keeping people busy?
I'll comment...
Fuck off NAR, you fucking data stuffing assholes.
Off topic but thought I would share:
http://www.infowars.com/other-tyrants-who-have-used-children-as-props/
in this case, down means up
I think the official NAR term for this phenomenon is "Bi-winning."
pods
My house wouldn't start this morning so I adjusted the thermostat.
That's fucking funny right there!
Hey! Hands off! That's Benny's job!
It's bad news.
Gold took a hit on it
Me thinks the good SA unemployment claims + housing starts
numbers are just the beginning of the excuses needed for the
Fed to start backing off on their balance sheet which means
margin rates start going up and there goes the punch bowl!
We are going to spend all year watching the market climb and gold drop on the speculation that QE is no longer needed. We will pay little attention to countries bringing home their gold. Shit they are only bringing it home to make it easier to sell in their "gold for cash" shops that have sprung up everywhere.
I wish we could fast forward to the month after they stop QE.
That way the Fed can buy enough gold to send to Germany.
Anytime you manufacture the numbers on jobs you have to take gold down.....it's all in the manual somewhere.
Seriously? The minute the FED backs off printing money and buying treasuries and interest rates start to rise, the economy and the stock market will crash. You clearly have no idea what's going on. Get a grip.
huh?
There's got to be VERY little wiggle room for the FED criminals at this point.
Benny's favorite song- Blowing Bubbles
maybe he gets a "Thriller" nightmareliner dream every night from a monkey.
Notice that the 2 graphs are on diferent scales. The left hand Y scale (blue curve) has 5x the range than the right hand scale. So yes, the slope on teh red curve looks much larger, but it is not. The red curve has a rise of 80 over the whole x range, while the blue curve has a rise of 50. Sort of what you would expect from seasonal adjustments - which by definition must cancel to zero over a 1 year cycle.
No, thats the percentage scale, look again?
I agree - not sure why the RHS is even there. Both series of data relate to LHS only - hence are internally consistent.
So the same seasonal adjustment that saw the worst NSA number since March result in a SA surge by 100K, was applied in December 2011 when a comparable decline in NSA starts led to a 9k drop in SA numbers a year ago?
Maybe not.
In case there is confusion, here it is visually. Curious how percentages explain the amusing 2012 seasonally adjusted outlier.
I'm pretty much flat Tyler. I smell a storm a brewing/
Please do not reply to trolls with facts, it makes their cock limp.
Does anyone else think that it is odd that the seasonal adjustments are very different year-to-year?
Of course not, it is all smoke and mirrors so par for the CON
Mario, is that a trick question?
uuhhmmmm hellllooooo......all the funny numbers have been odd for years now.
I think we are going to have to hop in the wayback machine and dig up the color coded terr'sm alert system.
Unemployment is a code orange for February, which is an improvement from the red-orange of January.
Might as well have fun with it?
pods
I used alot of garlic and paprica seasoning last year but this year I've adjusted to more pepper less salt.
Seasonal adjustments are "getting better one retirement at a time. As the older, less corruptible BLS employees get fed up and quit/retire/die of heart attacks they get replaced with O friendly newbies who are quite willing to cook the books to further his wishes and line their pockets.
If you want to see a better picture of housing starts, look to the homebuilders! They are on fire with massive backlogs.
In many parts of the country we are experiencing a shortage of housing, so expect housing starts and the homebuiders to continue ramping up production
well we know for certain that anyone between 20-35 ain't buying homes. The 35-45 crowd is under water. The 45-55 crowd is probably barely hangin in. The 55 plus crowd are downsizing. So how in the hell is there a shortage of housing?
edit - my bad, I forgot we are entering the renter stage of serfdom. My bad, no coffee yet....
You appear to be an obvious shill for the gov or housing industry. With 40 million McMansions unsold and virtually unsellable and 23% "real" unemployment, just exactly who will be damanding all the new houses?
"mind bottling"-chazz michael michaels
how much does it cost to maintain an empty mcmansion...(ponders whether there is any copper in those)
Where's the shortage?Thanks
Sorry Alphahunter, my whole family is in homebuilding and in the real world theres absolutely nothing going on, except for top-end additions or remodels.
they're building a few houses by me and I think they're being bought by gubmint employees w/ JOBS4LIFE-cops,firefighters,etc.
Not to mention the contractor bottom feeding going on in the sale of repo'd units from GSE inventory.
North South Dakota fracking to destroy water or HAARPs Sandy experiment?
fuck you alpha troll, fuck off back to the yahoo board fucking shill plant asshole..
Well, one person agrees with him apparently. Oh wait, he is that person. You should add clownshoes to your list of descriptions.
LMAO! You both kick ass!
What I would suggest is that the new home market is doing better than the existing home market. The existing home market:
1. People are asking too much, because they're trying not to lose money vs. what they paid/borrowed.
2. The stuff that is accurately priced is either foreclosures or short sales, both of which are a pain in the ass.
The new home market is generally a bit more accurately priced than the unencumbered existing home market, so relatively speaking, it's doing a bit better. Again, all relative, because actual new home sales are down about 75% from the mid 2000 peak.
Fed Released its' list of expanded counterparties for reverse repos.... wow... when the SHTF it could be an expensive proposition.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rlist_130115.html
Precisely why it won't. That list is essentially where everyone, not in the 0.1 %, has their current retirement account.
All in all: semiquasi.
But definitely adjusted.
We've definitely gone well past 'full retard', plan accordingly.
Hmmm, inauguration next week and very beautiful and fudged numbers out today. Looks eerily familiar to pre-election data
is this a Sandy adjustment or a sandy bottom (it itches dammit)
Must get a big discount if you buy one of those seasonnaly adjusted houses...
OT/ Someone remind me not to trade sgd/hkd after the Tokyo/yuan fix. I'm trying to become more astute with the Asian /African/South American tier 2-3 currencies. ( I need moar socks to fold)...
Liquidity<
6 million surplus nationally. Shortage of affordable rental housing.
Blackstone purchasing chunks. More jumping on the Landlord wagon.
I was recently in Houston. Building is full throttle, but would argue, however, that only pockets are building out.
Nationally these numbers will not prove out. DECEMBER new residential construction?? Whatever
Live in western suburbs of houston. Everyday the landscape changes with 5 or 6 new 4000 sqft houses. At least they are all sold before they are built. Lots of cali license plates. Wonder if we can prevent them from voting for like 10 years.
Philly Housing Index - index of housing vendors - completing wave B up.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/weekly-housing-index-remains-channel-re...
Like the markets, the next leg down will be devastating.
NAR is about as useless as ADP.
I would like to seasonally adjust Bernanke out of a job.
And now something completely different...... http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=flock+of+sheep+youtube&view=detail&mid=17EE1814ECE404641C7417EE1814ECE404641C74&first=0
Still dont get how about 10% of US houses can be empty and people build new houses? Banks own most of these houses, so are they waiting for a new buble to unload them or what? Of course they can always Zombie Morgage your arse...
I started but can't finish my house, but I never stop looking for good cardboard. Please give me a holler if you have some.
Why do we not look at the rolling 12 month sum of these numbers? That eliminates the need for seasonal adjustments, eliminates short term noise and gives us a clearer picture of what is happening.
You mean they do not want us to know the clear picture?
With a cat's eye I just noticed the election was rigged.
They ought to scrap "Starts" for a "Housing Finished" graph. How many of these "starts" are actually finished?
And, then they should produce another graph of uncompleted projects, calling it, "Housing Sharts."
chinese say; man who build vacant homes soon have empty wallet
Dude, I really with you'd label your X & Y axies sometimes. I understand foregoing the X on this on (it's time, duh) but what the hell do the numbers on the sides represent? I shouldn't have to beat my head to figure out what they are, especially is you have two Y axies on the same graph.
Units Dude. That's why the blue line never dips below zero but the red line, when adjusted, can go negative. Because a negative build today HAS to be an exagertated positive build tomorrow.
Post longer term-series, say to 2001