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Chart Of The Day: Housing Starts Adjusted vs Unadjusted

Tyler Durden's picture




 

No commentary necessary.

And focusing only on the November to December "comparable" Seasonal adjustments, here is the move from November to December in 2010, 2011 and 2012. Spot the outlier:

Source: Housing Starts NSA; Housing Starts SA, December New Residential Construction

 

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Thu, 01/17/2013 - 09:55 | 3161854 zilverreiger
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So is that good news or bad news? What is a housing start anyway

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:01 | 3161863 Cult_of_Reason
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What's up with the huge parabolic DAX spike (from negative to +0.8% within ~3 minutes) and EUR/USD drop?

Stop hunt? Anybody?

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:03 | 3161890 Racer
Racer's picture

Probably because of someone protection their position for witching tomorrow

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:11 | 3161930 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

DAX and Copper went up vertical on no news ~3 minutes before official 8:30 am US data, EUR/USD went down at the same time.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 11:46 | 3162187 redpill
redpill's picture

Seasonally adjusted housing starts numbers don't mean much in the wintertime because volume is so low. But, the closing months of 2012 were certainly much better than the same months in 2011 an 2010, which can be corroborated from other sources not tainted by x-12 arima.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:06 | 3161915 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

That's just someone playing on their computer. Pay no attention.

 

or, it's time to crash the dollar (because it's worthless).

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:13 | 3161944 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

"Someone" = Deutsche Bank

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:17 | 3161962 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Bro....I'll buy you some champagne Bro...

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 09:59 | 3161871 French Frog
French Frog's picture

FOR ZH:

This is just to say that the article at the top left of the main page does not load:

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-01-16/cia-and-other-government-agencies-dominate-movies-and-television

Anyone else having the same issue?

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:05 | 3161908 CPL
CPL's picture

No problems here.

 

Go to the page.

Hold down the shift key

and click on the reload button in your brower.

 

or Clear cache and clear cookies.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:08 | 3161925 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

I found the shift key but what's the reload botton on my brower?

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:18 | 3161965 qqqqtrader
qqqqtrader's picture

ctrl + F4?

that should do ya

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:24 | 3161994 CPL
CPL's picture

lol

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 13:33 | 3162866 Raymond K Hessel
Raymond K Hessel's picture

Left Right Left Left Up Down Square Square Circle Triangle Down

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:19 | 3161974 JeffB
JeffB's picture

<ctrl> + <R> on Firefox & IE(?)

or right click the tab & select "reload tab".

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:20 | 3161981 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

On Internet Explorer it is the round circle with the arrow embedded in it next to the "X" in the box where you type the web site address you wish to visit.

<Was that a test and did I pass? I'm over 50 so I get extra points if I did.>

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:04 | 3161898 CPL
CPL's picture

The weekly doesn't match with the reality.

 

Both lines should follow each other like a flock of birds.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:19 | 3161977 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Well, if it's just a linear filter applied, then the only data fields which really matter is the entry which has now slipped off the filter (ie, 12 months ago), and the new entry (ie, this months entry). However, that would suggest truly atrocious data have recently been eliminated, but it would also suggest this recent development is about to come to a sudden end.

A 24-month (or longer, ideally) dataset would be quite interesting, as one should be able to deduce the weights used to calculate the adjusted.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:28 | 3162011 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I wish they would start those lines at the same point so I don't do what I just did.  Which was wonder for about a minute "so..... we were building more houses than the seasonally adjusted number in 2011 but we're building fewer houses than the seasonally adjusted number in 2012??"

No, dum-dum (me) that's NOT what the graph says.  It says the seasonally adjusted numbers have been showing a consistent and rising over-estimation of reality.  Oh, OK, that makes more sense, I says to myself.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:33 | 3162031 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

First off - I agree. It's complete bollocks.

But ATTEMPTING to justify this graph, imagine if the numbers from 12 months were truly awful. This would mean that if they were now replaced by better numbers, we'd see a strong growth in the adjusted number. Obviously, the weights can't be linear, or you'd just see the average of the unadjusted be the current adjusted, so there's some sort of magic in there. In fact, it's probably magic which is adjusted on a per-month basis (for some dubious reason cocksucking economics students wholeheartedly agree with), and for some even more dubious reason (OMG NATIONAL SECURITY!!eleventyone11) can't be released.

But given the unadjusted set of data, one MIGHT be able to at least come up with some sort of weight (and delta) estimate. Which no doubt would require intense doctoring and curve fitting.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:30 | 3162021 dow2000
dow2000's picture

they must be getting desperate...

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 11:13 | 3162221 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

Don't get me started!

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 11:39 | 3162353 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

It is really APARTMENT starts wagging this tail.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/01/17/2013-housing-recovery...

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 09:56 | 3161855 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Renters A-Plenty

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:00 | 3161876 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, unfortunately, unemployed renters with no wages are a problem (unless they agree to ride a sationary bike and provide power for the rest of the building).

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:30 | 3162018 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

In my neck of the woods they are building houses that go unsold for many months ... not sure what that's all about guess it's keeping people busy?

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 09:57 | 3161858 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

I'll comment...

Fuck off NAR, you fucking data stuffing assholes.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 09:57 | 3161859 dow2000
Thu, 01/17/2013 - 09:58 | 3161868 Ruger556
Ruger556's picture

in this case, down means up

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:18 | 3161970 pods
pods's picture

I think the official NAR term for this phenomenon is "Bi-winning."

pods

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:00 | 3161873 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

My house wouldn't start this morning so I adjusted the thermostat.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:12 | 3161942 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

That's fucking funny right there!

 

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 12:23 | 3162544 teolawki
teolawki's picture

Hey! Hands off! That's Benny's job!

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:01 | 3161884 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

It's bad news. 

Gold took a hit on it

 

Me thinks the good SA unemployment claims + housing starts

numbers are just the beginning of the excuses needed for the

Fed to start backing off on their balance sheet which means

margin rates start going up and there goes the punch bowl!

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:06 | 3161914 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

We are going to spend all year watching the market climb and gold drop on the speculation that QE is no longer needed. We will pay little attention to countries bringing home their gold. Shit they are only bringing it home to make it easier to sell in their "gold for cash" shops that have sprung up everywhere.

I wish we could fast forward to the month after they stop QE.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:13 | 3161947 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

That way the Fed can buy enough gold to send to Germany.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:23 | 3161992 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Anytime you manufacture the numbers on jobs you have to take gold down.....it's all in the manual somewhere.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:16 | 3161959 Carl LaFong
Carl LaFong's picture

Seriously? The minute the FED backs off printing money and buying treasuries and interest rates start to rise, the economy and the stock market will crash. You clearly have no idea what's going on. Get a grip.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 11:07 | 3162196 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

huh?

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:19 | 3161979 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

There's got to be VERY little wiggle room for the FED criminals at this point.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:01 | 3161885 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Benny's favorite song- Blowing Bubbles

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:29 | 3162017 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

maybe he gets a "Thriller" nightmareliner dream every night from a monkey.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:03 | 3161889 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Notice that the 2 graphs are on diferent scales. The left hand Y scale (blue curve) has 5x the range than the right hand scale. So yes, the slope on teh red curve looks much larger, but it is not. The red curve has a rise of 80 over the whole x range, while the blue curve has a rise of 50.  Sort of what you would expect from seasonal adjustments - which by definition must cancel to zero over a 1 year cycle.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:08 | 3161923 cahadjis
cahadjis's picture

No, thats the percentage scale, look again?

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:48 | 3162103 rguptatx
rguptatx's picture

I agree - not sure why the RHS is even there. Both series of data relate to LHS only - hence are internally consistent. 

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:11 | 3161933 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

So the same seasonal adjustment that saw the worst NSA number since March result in a SA surge by 100K, was applied in December 2011 when a comparable decline in NSA starts led to a 9k drop in SA numbers a year ago?

Maybe not.

In case there is confusion, here it is visually. Curious how percentages explain the amusing 2012 seasonally adjusted outlier.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:43 | 3162066 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I'm pretty much flat Tyler. I smell a storm a brewing/

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 11:01 | 3162176 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

Please do not reply to trolls with facts, it makes their cock limp.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:03 | 3161895 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

Does anyone else think that it is odd that the seasonal adjustments are very different year-to-year?

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:05 | 3161910 Racer
Racer's picture

Of course not, it is all smoke and mirrors so par for the CON

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 13:36 | 3162879 Raymond K Hessel
Raymond K Hessel's picture

Mario, is that a trick question?

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:07 | 3161920 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

uuhhmmmm hellllooooo......all the funny numbers have been odd for years now.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 11:29 | 3162301 pods
pods's picture

I think we are going to have to hop in the wayback machine and dig up the color coded terr'sm alert system.

Unemployment is a code orange for February, which is an improvement from the red-orange of January.

Might as well have fun with it?

pods

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:14 | 3161949 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

I used alot of garlic and paprica seasoning last year but this year I've adjusted to more pepper less salt.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:22 | 3161987 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Seasonal adjustments are "getting better one retirement at a time. As the older, less corruptible BLS employees get fed up and quit/retire/die of heart attacks they get replaced with O friendly newbies who are quite willing to cook the books to further his wishes and line their pockets.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:06 | 3161904 AlphaHunter001
AlphaHunter001's picture

 

If you want to see a better picture of housing starts, look to the homebuilders! They are on fire with massive backlogs.

 

In many parts of the country we are experiencing a shortage of housing, so expect housing starts and the homebuiders to continue ramping up production

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:13 | 3161929 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

well we know for certain that anyone between 20-35 ain't buying homes. The 35-45 crowd is under water. The 45-55 crowd is probably barely hangin in. The 55 plus crowd are downsizing. So how in the hell is there a shortage of housing?

edit - my bad, I forgot we are entering the renter stage of serfdom. My bad, no coffee yet....

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:14 | 3161948 Carl LaFong
Carl LaFong's picture

You appear to be an obvious shill for the gov or housing industry. With 40 million McMansions unsold and virtually unsellable and 23% "real" unemployment, just exactly who will be damanding all the new houses? 

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:18 | 3161972 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

"mind bottling"-chazz michael michaels

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:26 | 3162004 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

how much does it cost to maintain an empty mcmansion...(ponders whether there is any copper in those)

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:17 | 3161961 bullmarket
bullmarket's picture

Where's the shortage?Thanks

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:17 | 3161967 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sorry Alphahunter, my whole family is in homebuilding and in the real world theres absolutely nothing going on, except for top-end additions or remodels.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:21 | 3161983 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

they're building a few houses by me and I think they're being bought by gubmint employees w/ JOBS4LIFE-cops,firefighters,etc.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:26 | 3161998 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Not to mention the contractor bottom feeding going on in the sale of repo'd units from GSE inventory.

 

 

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:22 | 3161988 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

North  South Dakota fracking to destroy water or HAARPs Sandy experiment? 

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:28 | 3162009 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

fuck you alpha troll, fuck off back to the yahoo board fucking shill plant asshole..

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:33 | 3162028 Chump
Chump's picture

Well, one person agrees with him apparently.  Oh wait, he is that person.  You should add clownshoes to your list of descriptions.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:44 | 3162075 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

LMAO! You both kick ass!

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 12:28 | 3162566 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

What I would suggest is that the new home market is doing better than the existing home market.  The existing home market:

1.  People are asking too much, because they're trying not to lose money vs. what they paid/borrowed.

2.  The stuff that is accurately priced is either foreclosures or short sales, both of which are a pain in the ass.

The new home market is generally a bit more accurately priced than the unencumbered existing home market, so relatively speaking, it's doing a bit better.  Again, all relative, because actual new home sales are down about 75% from the mid 2000 peak.  

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:10 | 3161935 DollarDive
DollarDive's picture

Fed Released its' list of expanded counterparties for reverse repos.... wow... when the SHTF it could be an expensive proposition.

 

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rlist_130115.html

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:18 | 3161971 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Precisely why it won't.  That list is essentially where everyone, not in the 0.1 %, has their current retirement account.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:11 | 3161938 100pcDredge
100pcDredge's picture

All in all: semiquasi.

But definitely adjusted.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:16 | 3161956 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

We've definitely gone well past 'full retard', plan accordingly.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:22 | 3161986 Michelle
Michelle's picture

Hmmm, inauguration next week and very beautiful and fudged numbers out today. Looks eerily familiar to pre-election data

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:25 | 3162000 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

is this a Sandy adjustment or a sandy bottom (it itches dammit)

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:27 | 3162007 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Must get a big discount if you buy one of those seasonnaly adjusted houses...

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:41 | 3162052 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

OT/ Someone remind me not to trade sgd/hkd  after the Tokyo/yuan fix. I'm trying to become more astute with the Asian /African/South American tier 2-3 currencies. ( I need moar socks to fold)...

  Liquidity<

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:41 | 3162060 vincent
vincent's picture

6 million surplus nationally. Shortage of affordable rental housing.

Blackstone purchasing chunks. More  jumping on the Landlord wagon.

I was recently in Houston. Building is full throttle, but would argue, however, that only pockets are building out.

Nationally these numbers will not prove out.  DECEMBER new residential construction?? Whatever

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 12:40 | 3162626 Darksky
Darksky's picture

Live in western suburbs of houston. Everyday the landscape changes with 5 or 6 new 4000 sqft houses. At least they are all sold before they are built. Lots of cali license plates. Wonder if we can prevent them from voting for like 10 years.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:42 | 3162064 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Philly Housing Index - index of housing vendors - completing wave B up.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/weekly-housing-index-remains-channel-re...

 

Like the markets, the next leg down will be devastating.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:44 | 3162074 madcows
madcows's picture

NAR is about as useless as ADP.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:46 | 3162095 Uncle Zuzu
Uncle Zuzu's picture

I would like to seasonally adjust Bernanke out of a job.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 11:01 | 3162171 Montezuma
Montezuma's picture

Still dont get how about 10% of US houses can be empty and people build new houses? Banks own most of these houses, so are they waiting for a new buble to unload them or what? Of course they can always Zombie Morgage your arse...

 

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 11:16 | 3162230 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

I started but can't finish my house, but I never stop looking for good cardboard. Please give me a holler if you have some.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 11:22 | 3162254 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Why do we not look at the rolling 12 month sum of these numbers?  That eliminates the need for seasonal adjustments, eliminates short term noise and gives us a clearer picture of what is happening.

You mean they do not want us to know the clear picture?

 

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 11:30 | 3162313 haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

With a cat's eye I just noticed the election was rigged.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 11:33 | 3162327 edifice
edifice's picture

They ought to scrap "Starts" for a "Housing Finished" graph. How many of these "starts" are actually finished?

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 15:25 | 3163412 edifice
edifice's picture

And, then they should produce another graph of uncompleted projects, calling it, "Housing Sharts."

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 11:40 | 3162361 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

chinese say; man who build vacant homes soon have empty wallet

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 12:03 | 3162449 W74
W74's picture

Dude, I really with you'd label your X & Y axies sometimes.   I understand foregoing the X on this on (it's time, duh) but what the hell do the numbers on the sides represent?  I shouldn't have to beat my head to figure out what they are, especially is you have two Y axies on the same graph.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 12:52 | 3162680 haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

Units Dude. That's why the blue line never dips below zero but the red line, when adjusted, can go negative. Because a negative build today HAS to be an exagertated positive build tomorrow.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 12:28 | 3162567 omi
omi's picture

Post longer term-series, say to 2001

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