Chart Of The Day: Housing Starts Adjusted vs Unadjusted

Tyler Durden's picture

No commentary necessary.

And focusing only on the November to December "comparable" Seasonal adjustments, here is the move from November to December in 2010, 2011 and 2012. Spot the outlier:

Source: Housing Starts NSA; Housing Starts SA, December New Residential Construction

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Raymond K Hessel's picture

Mario, is that a trick question?

Dr. Engali's picture

uuhhmmmm hellllooooo......all the funny numbers have been odd for years now.

pods's picture

I think we are going to have to hop in the wayback machine and dig up the color coded terr'sm alert system.

Unemployment is a code orange for February, which is an improvement from the red-orange of January.

Might as well have fun with it?


Falconsixone's picture

I used alot of garlic and paprica seasoning last year but this year I've adjusted to more pepper less salt.

DeadFred's picture

Seasonal adjustments are "getting better one retirement at a time. As the older, less corruptible BLS employees get fed up and quit/retire/die of heart attacks they get replaced with O friendly newbies who are quite willing to cook the books to further his wishes and line their pockets.

AlphaHunter001's picture


If you want to see a better picture of housing starts, look to the homebuilders! They are on fire with massive backlogs.


In many parts of the country we are experiencing a shortage of housing, so expect housing starts and the homebuiders to continue ramping up production

fonzannoon's picture

well we know for certain that anyone between 20-35 ain't buying homes. The 35-45 crowd is under water. The 45-55 crowd is probably barely hangin in. The 55 plus crowd are downsizing. So how in the hell is there a shortage of housing?

edit - my bad, I forgot we are entering the renter stage of serfdom. My bad, no coffee yet....

Carl LaFong's picture

You appear to be an obvious shill for the gov or housing industry. With 40 million McMansions unsold and virtually unsellable and 23% "real" unemployment, just exactly who will be damanding all the new houses? 

otto skorzeny's picture

"mind bottling"-chazz michael michaels

hooligan2009's picture

how much does it cost to maintain an empty mcmansion...(ponders whether there is any copper in those)

SheepDog-One's picture

Sorry Alphahunter, my whole family is in homebuilding and in the real world theres absolutely nothing going on, except for top-end additions or remodels.

otto skorzeny's picture

they're building a few houses by me and I think they're being bought by gubmint employees w/ JOBS4LIFE-cops,firefighters,etc.

Yes_Questions's picture



Not to mention the contractor bottom feeding going on in the sale of repo'd units from GSE inventory.



Falconsixone's picture

North  South Dakota fracking to destroy water or HAARPs Sandy experiment? 

LongSoupLine's picture

fuck you alpha troll, fuck off back to the yahoo board fucking shill plant asshole..

Chump's picture

Well, one person agrees with him apparently.  Oh wait, he is that person.  You should add clownshoes to your list of descriptions.

Yen Cross's picture

LMAO! You both kick ass!

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

What I would suggest is that the new home market is doing better than the existing home market.  The existing home market:

1.  People are asking too much, because they're trying not to lose money vs. what they paid/borrowed.

2.  The stuff that is accurately priced is either foreclosures or short sales, both of which are a pain in the ass.

The new home market is generally a bit more accurately priced than the unencumbered existing home market, so relatively speaking, it's doing a bit better.  Again, all relative, because actual new home sales are down about 75% from the mid 2000 peak.  

DollarDive's picture

Fed Released its' list of expanded counterparties for reverse repos.... wow... when the SHTF it could be an expensive proposition.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Precisely why it won't.  That list is essentially where everyone, not in the 0.1 %, has their current retirement account.

100pcDredge's picture

All in all: semiquasi.

But definitely adjusted.

SheepDog-One's picture

We've definitely gone well past 'full retard', plan accordingly.

Michelle's picture

Hmmm, inauguration next week and very beautiful and fudged numbers out today. Looks eerily familiar to pre-election data

hooligan2009's picture

is this a Sandy adjustment or a sandy bottom (it itches dammit)

ptoemmes's picture

Must get a big discount if you buy one of those seasonnaly adjusted houses...

Yen Cross's picture

OT/ Someone remind me not to trade sgd/hkd  after the Tokyo/yuan fix. I'm trying to become more astute with the Asian /African/South American tier 2-3 currencies. ( I need moar socks to fold)...


vincent's picture

6 million surplus nationally. Shortage of affordable rental housing.

Blackstone purchasing chunks. More  jumping on the Landlord wagon.

I was recently in Houston. Building is full throttle, but would argue, however, that only pockets are building out.

Nationally these numbers will not prove out.  DECEMBER new residential construction?? Whatever

Darksky's picture

Live in western suburbs of houston. Everyday the landscape changes with 5 or 6 new 4000 sqft houses. At least they are all sold before they are built. Lots of cali license plates. Wonder if we can prevent them from voting for like 10 years.

orangegeek's picture

Philly Housing Index - index of housing vendors - completing wave B up.


Like the markets, the next leg down will be devastating.

madcows's picture

NAR is about as useless as ADP.

Uncle Zuzu's picture

I would like to seasonally adjust Bernanke out of a job.

Montezuma's picture

Still dont get how about 10% of US houses can be empty and people build new houses? Banks own most of these houses, so are they waiting for a new buble to unload them or what? Of course they can always Zombie Morgage your arse...


Falconsixone's picture

I started but can't finish my house, but I never stop looking for good cardboard. Please give me a holler if you have some.

ejmoosa's picture

Why do we not look at the rolling 12 month sum of these numbers?  That eliminates the need for seasonal adjustments, eliminates short term noise and gives us a clearer picture of what is happening.

You mean they do not want us to know the clear picture?


haskelslocal's picture

With a cat's eye I just noticed the election was rigged.

edifice's picture

They ought to scrap "Starts" for a "Housing Finished" graph. How many of these "starts" are actually finished?

edifice's picture

And, then they should produce another graph of uncompleted projects, calling it, "Housing Sharts."

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

chinese say; man who build vacant homes soon have empty wallet

W74's picture

Dude, I really with you'd label your X & Y axies sometimes.   I understand foregoing the X on this on (it's time, duh) but what the hell do the numbers on the sides represent?  I shouldn't have to beat my head to figure out what they are, especially is you have two Y axies on the same graph.

haskelslocal's picture

Units Dude. That's why the blue line never dips below zero but the red line, when adjusted, can go negative. Because a negative build today HAS to be an exagertated positive build tomorrow.

omi's picture

Post longer term-series, say to 2001