Chart Of The Day: Housing Starts Adjusted vs Unadjusted

Tyler Durden's picture




 

No commentary necessary.

And focusing only on the November to December "comparable" Seasonal adjustments, here is the move from November to December in 2010, 2011 and 2012. Spot the outlier:

Source: Housing Starts NSA; Housing Starts SA, December New Residential Construction

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Thu, 01/17/2013 - 13:36 | 3162879 Raymond K Hessel
Raymond K Hessel's picture

Mario, is that a trick question?

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:07 | 3161920 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

uuhhmmmm hellllooooo......all the funny numbers have been odd for years now.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 11:29 | 3162301 pods
pods's picture

I think we are going to have to hop in the wayback machine and dig up the color coded terr'sm alert system.

Unemployment is a code orange for February, which is an improvement from the red-orange of January.

Might as well have fun with it?

pods

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:14 | 3161949 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

I used alot of garlic and paprica seasoning last year but this year I've adjusted to more pepper less salt.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:22 | 3161987 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Seasonal adjustments are "getting better one retirement at a time. As the older, less corruptible BLS employees get fed up and quit/retire/die of heart attacks they get replaced with O friendly newbies who are quite willing to cook the books to further his wishes and line their pockets.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:06 | 3161904 AlphaHunter001
AlphaHunter001's picture

 

If you want to see a better picture of housing starts, look to the homebuilders! They are on fire with massive backlogs.

 

In many parts of the country we are experiencing a shortage of housing, so expect housing starts and the homebuiders to continue ramping up production

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:13 | 3161929 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

well we know for certain that anyone between 20-35 ain't buying homes. The 35-45 crowd is under water. The 45-55 crowd is probably barely hangin in. The 55 plus crowd are downsizing. So how in the hell is there a shortage of housing?

edit - my bad, I forgot we are entering the renter stage of serfdom. My bad, no coffee yet....

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:14 | 3161948 Carl LaFong
Carl LaFong's picture

You appear to be an obvious shill for the gov or housing industry. With 40 million McMansions unsold and virtually unsellable and 23% "real" unemployment, just exactly who will be damanding all the new houses? 

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:18 | 3161972 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

"mind bottling"-chazz michael michaels

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:26 | 3162004 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

how much does it cost to maintain an empty mcmansion...(ponders whether there is any copper in those)

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:17 | 3161961 bullmarket
bullmarket's picture

Where's the shortage?Thanks

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:17 | 3161967 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sorry Alphahunter, my whole family is in homebuilding and in the real world theres absolutely nothing going on, except for top-end additions or remodels.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:21 | 3161983 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

they're building a few houses by me and I think they're being bought by gubmint employees w/ JOBS4LIFE-cops,firefighters,etc.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:26 | 3161998 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Not to mention the contractor bottom feeding going on in the sale of repo'd units from GSE inventory.

 

 

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:22 | 3161988 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

North  South Dakota fracking to destroy water or HAARPs Sandy experiment? 

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:28 | 3162009 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

fuck you alpha troll, fuck off back to the yahoo board fucking shill plant asshole..

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:33 | 3162028 Chump
Chump's picture

Well, one person agrees with him apparently.  Oh wait, he is that person.  You should add clownshoes to your list of descriptions.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:44 | 3162075 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

LMAO! You both kick ass!

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 12:28 | 3162566 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

What I would suggest is that the new home market is doing better than the existing home market.  The existing home market:

1.  People are asking too much, because they're trying not to lose money vs. what they paid/borrowed.

2.  The stuff that is accurately priced is either foreclosures or short sales, both of which are a pain in the ass.

The new home market is generally a bit more accurately priced than the unencumbered existing home market, so relatively speaking, it's doing a bit better.  Again, all relative, because actual new home sales are down about 75% from the mid 2000 peak.  

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:10 | 3161935 DollarDive
DollarDive's picture

Fed Released its' list of expanded counterparties for reverse repos.... wow... when the SHTF it could be an expensive proposition.

 

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rlist_130115.html

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:18 | 3161971 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Precisely why it won't.  That list is essentially where everyone, not in the 0.1 %, has their current retirement account.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:11 | 3161938 100pcDredge
100pcDredge's picture

All in all: semiquasi.

But definitely adjusted.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:16 | 3161956 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

We've definitely gone well past 'full retard', plan accordingly.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:22 | 3161986 Michelle
Michelle's picture

Hmmm, inauguration next week and very beautiful and fudged numbers out today. Looks eerily familiar to pre-election data

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:25 | 3162000 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

is this a Sandy adjustment or a sandy bottom (it itches dammit)

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:27 | 3162007 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Must get a big discount if you buy one of those seasonnaly adjusted houses...

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:41 | 3162052 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

OT/ Someone remind me not to trade sgd/hkd  after the Tokyo/yuan fix. I'm trying to become more astute with the Asian /African/South American tier 2-3 currencies. ( I need moar socks to fold)...

  Liquidity<

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:41 | 3162060 vincent
vincent's picture

6 million surplus nationally. Shortage of affordable rental housing.

Blackstone purchasing chunks. More  jumping on the Landlord wagon.

I was recently in Houston. Building is full throttle, but would argue, however, that only pockets are building out.

Nationally these numbers will not prove out.  DECEMBER new residential construction?? Whatever

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 12:40 | 3162626 Darksky
Darksky's picture

Live in western suburbs of houston. Everyday the landscape changes with 5 or 6 new 4000 sqft houses. At least they are all sold before they are built. Lots of cali license plates. Wonder if we can prevent them from voting for like 10 years.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:42 | 3162064 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Philly Housing Index - index of housing vendors - completing wave B up.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/weekly-housing-index-remains-channel-re...

 

Like the markets, the next leg down will be devastating.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:44 | 3162074 madcows
madcows's picture

NAR is about as useless as ADP.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 10:46 | 3162095 Uncle Zuzu
Uncle Zuzu's picture

I would like to seasonally adjust Bernanke out of a job.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 11:01 | 3162171 Montezuma
Montezuma's picture

Still dont get how about 10% of US houses can be empty and people build new houses? Banks own most of these houses, so are they waiting for a new buble to unload them or what? Of course they can always Zombie Morgage your arse...

 

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 11:16 | 3162230 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

I started but can't finish my house, but I never stop looking for good cardboard. Please give me a holler if you have some.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 11:22 | 3162254 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Why do we not look at the rolling 12 month sum of these numbers?  That eliminates the need for seasonal adjustments, eliminates short term noise and gives us a clearer picture of what is happening.

You mean they do not want us to know the clear picture?

 

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 11:30 | 3162313 haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

With a cat's eye I just noticed the election was rigged.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 11:33 | 3162327 edifice
edifice's picture

They ought to scrap "Starts" for a "Housing Finished" graph. How many of these "starts" are actually finished?

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 15:25 | 3163412 edifice
edifice's picture

And, then they should produce another graph of uncompleted projects, calling it, "Housing Sharts."

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 11:40 | 3162361 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

chinese say; man who build vacant homes soon have empty wallet

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 12:03 | 3162449 W74
W74's picture

Dude, I really with you'd label your X & Y axies sometimes.   I understand foregoing the X on this on (it's time, duh) but what the hell do the numbers on the sides represent?  I shouldn't have to beat my head to figure out what they are, especially is you have two Y axies on the same graph.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 12:52 | 3162680 haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

Units Dude. That's why the blue line never dips below zero but the red line, when adjusted, can go negative. Because a negative build today HAS to be an exagertated positive build tomorrow.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 12:28 | 3162567 omi
omi's picture

Post longer term-series, say to 2001

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