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Does This Look Like A Recovery?
Via Simon Black of Sovereign Man Blog,
A few years ago back when I used to watch an occasional bit of television, I would always have an internal debate with myself: which was more funny– Comedy Central, or CNBC?
It was always a toss-up. One channel has talking puppets. The other has Steven Colbert. Both are satires of our bizarre reality.
These days it seems financial media has surged ahead in this contest, rolling out one expert guest after another to beat a steady drum that economic recovery has settled on terra firma.
Now, I’m an optimistic guy... and there are plenty of good news stories around the world. But just looking at the numbers, it’s clear that there is a major disconnect between sentiment and reality.
On one hand, western governments and mainstream media sources tell people that their economies are recovering and moving forward. Sentiment is high, confidence is growing.
Unfortunately the data show a completely different story:
1. In the US, while the official unemployment rate is falling, a much better indication of the labor market is the Labor Force Participation Rate– the percentage of people within a society who are engaged in the work force.
It rose steadily for decades after World War II as more and more women entered the work force, peaking in the late 1990s/early 2000s. It has been in terminal decline for the past ten years, having now reached the same level as from the late 1970s.
Mirroring this point is private sector data from Automatic Data Processing, the largest payroll services firm in the world. ADP regularly releases its own employment data– they are, after all, the ones who send out the paychecks...
According to ADP data, the number of people employed in the United States today (111 million) is roughly the same as in 2001. Yet back then, there were about 285 million people in the US. Today there are 315 million people.
So the conclusion is that there has been no growth in the number of jobs, far more people in the country, and far fewer of them ‘participating’ in the work force. This can hardly be called progress.
2. We’re also told that consumer spending is coming back. The US Commerce Department has reported that spending edged higher for the last several months, giving rise to even more optimism.
This may be true. However the other side to this story is that (a) US wages as a percentage of GDP are at a record low; and (b) consumer credit has been steadily rising since early 2011.
So what we’re really seeing is US shoppers who are either unemployed or earning record low wages going deeper into debt to buy stuff. Somehow this is a source of optimism.
3. Since 2008, large US companies have been able to enjoy absurdly low interest rates, plus a very forgiving society when they lay off workers.
Clearly this combination of cheap capital, lower payroll expense, and consumers willing to indebt themselves to buy products is positive for corporate profits. But is it sustainable?
In the long run, are strong corporate profits underpinned by cheap funny money and bankrupt consumers? Or strong, vibrant, productive economies? I would suggest the latter.
This analysis isn’t intended to be negative; bear in mind, numbers don’t have feelings. Data is simply truth. But the gulf between truth and perception is now astoundingly vast. And there are dangerous consequences to this, just as we have seen in the recent past. Welcome to 2007 all over again.
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Having a job and being able to pay for your way is SO 20th century. I mean really........
the good news from these charts is that, unlike in the past, people no longer need jobs in order buy things
Less people working = more with liesure time. Since the gubermint is footing the bill.....looks like progress to me.
Fig.1 is the Tranfer Fn of a LowPassFilter. Economy will continue on aslope at -20dB/2y ;-)
Remember the old maxim that "you cannot reflate a bubble." That was probably as wrong as any maxim over the ages. These dickweeds at the FOMC and affiliated central banks are working on a whole series. They think they will eventually get it just right--the perfect bubble that won't burst. You betcha.
..you meant controlled burst. You make some the way up and a lot more down..
Nothing is funny or amusing anymore.
It is truly frightening.
The big laugh can no longer cover the rot of the big lie
americans love to be lied to and told that they will be safe forever-that is the job of the govt
Naw, naw, naw.........I can't hear you.
I will tune to CNBC.....they will expose your vicious lies.
The damned world is upside down I tell ya...even the ObamaFawn Lady has gotten religion...
"She was a protester outside of a Romney rally that was held in Cleveland, Ohio, and she explained to a filmmaker on how President Obama gives all minorities free phones and that is the reason why they should vote for him and not vote for Mitt Romney."
"Dowry went on to say of how President Obama did not do what he said he would do for her neighborhood and to help them. She said after five years now, nothing has changed and her and husband are still in the same situation as they were before."
http://www.examiner.com/article/obama-phone-lady-obama-mislead-us
Insanity! ;-)
Obama must be rayciss............
These days it seems financial media has surged ahead in this contest, rolling out one expert guest after another to beat a steady drum that economic recovery has settled on terra firma.
F CNBC/BloomTurd, ALL of TV, All of Hollywood. They are all the CIA's Operation Mockingbird.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mockingbird
Endless lies and propaganda to the retards who watch TV and Hollywood's shit. If you watch then you enabled your serfdom.
tOmBama doesn't give a snake's shedded skin about black people.
She would vote for him again in a second. Democrats enjoy something 96% of the black vote and yet they have single handedly done more to destroy their families and communities than anyone. Some Democrat districts had more votes than registered voters but that's another story.
96+% of the black vote.
Now tell me that's not racist, is humorous and should not be addressed for we must not make them mad at their own feelings.
To paraphrase Yeats; "There is no center left to hold."
they would have voted for fucking OJ
Or, if I might try my hand, "The center did not hold." (Which, I guess, makes sense in that his observation was that the center cannot hold. I guess he was right.)
Blacks can't be racists, by definition. Only Caucasians, and maybe Asians, can.
Meet Bob, he is a Filthy Racist
Filter sweep that thing with a VWAP and we got bass drops.
Time for a band pass.
With all the SSDI, welfare Cell phones, free rent you make out. You loose if you work.
Besides you have Bubble Bernanke and the Fed to buy-up all the debt with printed money.
It's like fantasy land but real.
Well, Polly Anna Bartiromo and her Rose-Colored glasses says everything is just fine...
if I hear "we're off the lows of the day" from her fat lips one more time I'm gonna lose it
It is recovery of the wealthy US citizen's money. For the rest of us, tough luck.
It this "recovery" was in a hospital, it would already have a toe tag.
But, the talking heads say life is good, the recovery is rolling along.
And so it begins....Again.
so there is no spoon?
no spoon? From what the Mint is saying there isn't even any silver to make into spoons, that's how far this one's gone.
numbers no longer matter, the debt, mark to market, the market,
its all a ponzi bubble being pumped up by the fed, maybe it always was?
buy the fucking dip.
There is not enough assets in the economy to keep the banks from imploding since GDP is falling below 2%. The reality (ex Gov't statistics) is that banks are out of fuel for their ponzi, the implosion has started and will rapidly accelerate. The Ice-9 Cometh.
A better stat, IMHO, would be total compensation paid by employers.
An ER doctor could now be a Starbucks barista, and, using the article's calculations, one job = one job. Using reported income, while not perfect, would act as a proxy for the relative value consumers are indirectly willing to place on the relative value of the workforce's output. So, an ER doctor's compensation would be higher than a Starbucks barista, signaling a greater value being produced.
Someone (Williams or Biderman or?) should try to get a clinical read on "take-home income" vs. "compensation paid" by employers.
While barista could receive "3 week intensive training" and go work in a hospital as doctor for minimum wage, helping poor people.
51 months ago I paid the tax man and had a good job. Since then I've been Odd Job (since I can do anything) and can't see myself going to work again for the people who stole my life (I thought the field was level as a truthful fool does). So if they plan on me working for them you people should invest in whips (that won't work either). ie:fuck'em
They lost my ability (they don't care) and a shit load of taxes (I think they may care but they built the system).
Well said Falcon. Same here in my life. And I second your fuck-'em. Bit once shame on me...bit twice F'em.
right, it's not sustainable. http://www.cnhedge.com
We’re Now In The Eye Of The Perfect Storm: Europe’s Banking System Is Breaking Down Again, APPLE Is Following An Ominous Path, China Trust Loans Jump Sevenfold, And Several Measures Of Market Sentiment Are Now Hitting Extremes
http://investmentwatchblog.com/were-now-in-the-eye-of-the-perfect-storm-europes-banking-system-is-breaking-down-again-apple-is-following-an-ominous-path-china-trust-loans-jump-sevenfold-and-several-measures-o/
This economy is like the drunk that keeps showing up to AA meetings with vodka on the breathe.....swearing he has been straight and recovering while everyone isn't looking, slipping into the liquor store for another pint.
That was Yesterday.
Now the Bernank is handing out Vodka labeled "instant sobriety tonic" written in his handwriting in the AA meetings.
excellent resourcing of the 'grey matter', mr. black... in a BL$`world, that counts only the "Xs & Os"-- as that of an idiot`savant trolling his alphabet soup-bowl with a straining ladle!
A nation that is afraid to let it's people judge the truth and falsehood in a open market is a nation that is afraid of it's people. -John F. Kennedy-
I liked JF Kennedy. I still like the Kennedy's. Especially the silver Kennedy's at home.
Whenever I look at them, they seem to ask me: "What can we do for you?". One day I plan to answer them.
Yes, I like the Kennedy's and the Franklin's, I consider them my junk friends!
It's a nation of politicians and banksters afraid of not being able to continue the grand rip-off.
Funny you mention JFK. Talk about connections. CIA Operation Mockingbird to lie to the sheep who watch TV and Hollywood's shit. Including the endless lies on CNBC and BloomTURD. Keep watching TV and Hollywood - they need sheep/serfs watching.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mockingbird
In 1951, Allen W. Dulles persuaded Cord Meyer to join the CIA. According to Deborah Davis, Meyer became Mockingbird's "principal operative" Congressional hearings in 1976 proved the CIA had been paying off editors and reporters in most mainstream media outlets.
So who was Cord Meyer? Well JFK was sleeping with his wife. Probably a big mistake there.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Pinchot_Meyer
Big mistake by JFK and Mrs. Cord Meyer. The Kennedys had a real talent for getting into bed with gangsters and lowlifes plus the wives of powerful people and starlets. People then ended up dead. Like Marilyn would had a drug & booze problems, low self esteem and a big mouth.
http://www.thegeorgetowndish.com/thedish/mary-pinchot-meyer-murder-georgetown-towpath
Yes, but that "mouth", sure helped to advance her carreer..
I always was afraid of not working. Never has there been a better time in history not to work.
Indeed. I hear that even as far back as the days of the Pharaohs, there was plenty of work. Especially in those days, and in the days of many a monarch.
According to the Dems , you're only doing your part to help the economy.
"Unemployment checks is the fastest way to stimulate the economy"- Pelosi.
Fewer people working is a GOOD thing if they're old folks who make *adequate* monthly income for stayin' home. Maybe some young fucker without that income stream can claw itself into a job as a Walmart greeter, a grocery cashier, or a wait at a diner.
Is your interaction with the older "service sector" careerists more or less satisfying than average?
LMAO!! Just buy the dip... these fools don't give a rats ass about "employment" or "recovery". NOBODY cares. Buy the dip and help end this f-ing nightmare.
"With recoveries like this, who needs a recession?" -- Art Cashin
I think BLS statistics (manipulation and all) tell roughly the same tale as ADP. Last time I checked BLS said there were about 132MM employed in the US. About the same number as in 1999. And again, that's with a larger population which is what drives the Labor Force Participation rate down. And they're earning less to boot.
And this is as good as it gets even with the "stimulus" of 8-9% of GDP federal deficits. Subtract out 2% growth from that number and you get 6% of our GDP being pulled from the future by printing or borrowing.
The whole damned recession of 08-09 was only a 5.2% GDP contraction from peak to trough. Wanna go for a 6-plus-percenter? Cause it's coming, like it or not, no matter how much the Fed prints.
What's different this time from 1979 is that there were OPTIONS then. When you're not already sunk up to your eyeballs in debt you always have more options than you do when you're already over 100% and climbing rapidly. There are no options now that don't involve inflicting IMMEDIATE pain on various parts of the economy, no matter which path you choose to fix it. NOBODY IN CONGRESS WILL VOTE FOR IMMEDIATE PAIN. They won't deviate from the current path until something forces them to. The fragility of the system grows by the day as the pain is deferred. The longer it goes before resolution the more painful the resolution will be.
You think you hate things now, but just wait!
+1
And to solidify your point:
House Republicans weighing short-term debt limit increase
http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/01/17/house-repu...
We've hit Utopia! Are you kidding... I don't have to work ever again, can continue to consume and buy everything I want, government assistance in so many forms makes this feasible. Soon we'll all be able to just sit at home in our loungers and watch cable, while eating all number of tasty snacks. And then out to MickieD's, Taco Bell, or Applebee's for dinner. I love my life.
I put my trust in our government and they have delivered the goods. The New Modern Life.
The only pain in the butt will be having go online each month to check the bank account to ensure the auto payment from the government has arrived. So it isn't perfect, but almost.
Feels a lot like life in Southern Europe a decade ago. Now the masses in Greece are so sick of the media siding with the "state" that they have begun attacking journalists in their homes.
Exactly.....and Southern Europe is still kicking the can. Wanna bet the US can kick it 10x longer minimum? Thought so.
Can kicking is covering less and less distance - and soon that will be exponentially shorter, and that graph is heading to zero. When that can is firmly stuck in several or a dozen countries, the end of the current system will be upon us all.
The kicker has infinite firepower, so the kicking can continue until there is an unexpected wall in the way. Then the can goes splat.
infinite firepower means nothing when diminishing returns are in effect.
Hello, Asymptote, my how did you get there?
The growth in consumer spending is all due to credit expansion, but one kind: student debt. That's the whole increase since 2010.
A Tweet Which Will Live In Infamy http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2013/01/a-tweet-which-will-live-in-infamy.html
Of COURSE things are recovering ...on Wall Street. With trillions of bailout dollars they have mountains of cash and record profits now, life is better than ever, party on.
And no laws to worry about anymore. Run all the scams they want, no danger of prosecution, just a little fine here and there.
Wall Street might not be the "elite", but they're getting closer all the time, certainly the priviledged class, highly privileged class.
Govt doesn't tell them what to do, they tell govt what to do. And they really do have their own money tree, aka the Fed.
MSM isn't reporting how Main Street is doing, they're reporting how WALL STREET is doing.
No wonder they're so positive and bullish and bubbly, Wall Street is doing fan-fucking-tastic.
Yeah. Everyhing just goes along laa-dee-daa until an unforseen external shock slams Wall Street. (It has to be an unforseen shock because TPTB can adjust for forseen shocks.) The Fed is out of bullets with regard to unforseen shocks as they can't cut interest rates any more. That is when the shit hits the fan, the system hits the wall, and all the gold bugs will be clinging to their guns and beans.
"So what we’re really seeing is US shoppers who are either unemployed or earning record low wages going deeper into debt to buy stuff. Somehow this is a source of optimism."
Nearly everyone is bullish and full of optimism in Wonderland.
Where has that White Rabbit gotten to?
It's a real recovery.
Sincerely,
Manti Teo
Well you do have to expand your horizons if you want to capture that vision- Homer and Marge Sixpack hasn't had some come to Jesus moment, they will spend until someone says no..
PT Barnum didn't go broke by over estimating the public's intelligence or attention span, but I believe he was a born again optimist in human nature compared to the level of trust we should offer in our current leaders ability to govern.
"every decent man is ashamed of the government he lives under" HL Mencken.
BACKWARDS!
Much like the housing recovery the MSM keeps blabbing up that doesn't exist.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/weekly-housing-index-remains-channel-re...
Philly housing index did a nice 45 degree angle climb thanks to Ben and Barry blowing billions per day buying up overpriced equities.
When the markets fall, this index will collapse and real estate will return to reality.
Pleaaaase, you should not show unadjusted data.
For your convenience, there is proper "Seasonally bulshitted and adjusted" chart that everybody should use.
Makes me want to borrow money and buy cat food, you know it used to be hamburger and before that steak, but it's all good because there is very little inflation and all.
How much of that if any includes student loans?