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Dow Jones Closes Just Shy Of 5 Year High As Intel Beats EPS, Misses Revenue And Guides Lukewarm
Stocks surged (apart from AAPL) gloriously out of their super-narrow recent range, driven by recycled JPY rumors and some potential 'give' by the Republicans, and the rest of the risk-on complex tracked higher with it. Treasury yields pinged back to higher on the week as the S&P took out recent highs amid a very large surge in average trade size - something that often marks a climax in trend. It seems the selling of vol has hit its short-term limit (as VIX flatlined in general today) and so FX and credit were the levers today. Gold and Silver also surged on the day as Oil popped on the growing tensions in Algeria. In a premature release, Intel exposed an EPS beat, revenue miss, and weak guidance which sent algos scurrying and the share price snapping up and down into the close (and falling after). The bottom-line seems to be that the BoJ joining the infinite print brigade (and some very mixed US macro data) was enough to break us out of a narrow range - but the VWAP reversion into the close appears anything but follow through for the next leg up - as trade size suggests short-term trend change.
The world shifted a little today as VIX compression lost its mojo...
JPY weakness and the carry driver correlation were the basis for much of today's equity exuberance
S&P 500 futures tradedup to the up channel trendline highs - amid large block (blue)...
As average trade size surged...
Commodities surged (even as USD remained relatively flat)
Gold and the S&P 500 are now synced from 1/3/13 close at +1.4%.
Intel, afer trading up immediately on the headlines, is now trading down afterhours...
Full-Year 2013
- Revenue: low single-digit percentage increase.
- Gross margin percentage: 60 percent, plus or minus a few percentage points.
- R&D plus MG&A spending: $18.9 billion, plus or minus $200 million.
- Amortization of acquisition-related intangibles: approximately $300 million.
- Depreciation: $6.8 billion, plus or minus $100 million.
- Impact of equity investments and interest and other: net gain of approximately $100 million.
- Tax Rate: approximately 25 percent.
- Full-year capital spending: $13.0 billion, plus or minus $500 million.
Q1 2013
- Revenue: $12.7 billion, plus or minus $500 million.
- Gross margin percentage: 58 percent, plus or minus a couple percentage points.
- R&D plus MG&A spending: approximately $4.6 billion.
- Amortization of acquisition-related intangibles: approximately $75 million.
- Impact of equity investments and interest and other: net loss of approximately $50 million.
- Depreciation: approximately $1.7 billion.
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
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fed Lacker said today that there "really is no such thing as food and energy inflation"......I'm not shittin'
Shy of 5 year highs, close to 14 year highs (nominally; negative 62% in real, inflation adjusted terms), blah dee da dohh.
[And that's if one doesn't include the Winners of The New World type stocks, like pets.com, that were Corzined, which the indexes don't even reflect, conveniently, Jeremy Siegel]
Buy stocks, bitches!
Yes, buy stocks. Doomers have been predicting collapse going on for almost 5 years now. Wake up to the fact the FED saved us from another Great Depression!
Yes, I know many people who thrived holding down to near zero (or actual zero) in 2000 and 2008/2009.
Buy stocks!!! Bawk!!! Great secular bull run breaking out! Bawk!! Nikkei4ever! Bawk!!!
And collapse has in fact been progressing for five years now --- you are just too deep into ignorance, self-denial and official propaganda to recognize it.
Where are stocks (in INFLATION-ADJUSTED TERMS) compared to five years ago, shill? DOWN. Where are gold and silver, even in inflation-adjusted terms, compared to five years ago? UP. Where are the bonds (i.e., debts of profligate and unsustainably-overspending governments) beloved by all you conformist sheep? In the biggest bubble in financial history.
Have fun eating all that shit that your masters keep telling you is prime beef. Maybe you will even enjoy it, as you seem to leave dishing it out here.
Have you seen the stock market latley? How is it that US stocks and other American assests are preforming better than anything else in the world? It's simple it is called: RECOVERY!
You know, as an MDB-style troll, you are not very convincing.
Recovery....LOL
These(CB) assclowns pump $12-13 Trillion globally into the system and call breaking even winning! Meanwhile we're drinking toilet water at Shitbucks...
Dark Meadowlark said:
" How is it that US stocks and other American assests are preforming better than anything else in the world?"
How is it?
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Wow, watch those numbers roll.
I'm counting ~ $100,000 added every six seconds.
Recovery...um...yeah.
Your ignorance is bliss. Look at the DAX, Nikkei, ASX comp, before you insert foot in mouth<>
I love how this assclown troll has created several sockpuppets in order to give himself multiple up-arrows, as surely virtually no regular ZH member would ever do so. But is IS official US policy in order to undermine pro-liberty, anti-establishment conversation, after all:
http://leaksource.wordpress.com/2012/05/26/
Hoop shooters come in [gangs of five]. ;-)
25 days, 10 posts, the first praising MDB as being right.
Enough said.
akak said:
Hmmmmm .........* you know, the stranger-than-fiction recent events, incidents, and crises, superficially distinct and unrelated yet somehow connected, appear to be congealing and taking shape, like the edge pieces of a jigsaw puzzle.
*non-standard ellipsis usage for dramatic effect
AnAnonymous raves and drools about US citizenism 'americanism', "the system that has been implemented first time in the America, on 1776, July, 4th," blobbing up and hijacking humanity. It's possible that his genuine insanitation is being employed as part of crafty Chinese citizenism offuscational diversionary scheming.
Your remark above about the Department of Homeland Sockpuppetry made me realize something shocking: the US is being transformed into yet another Chinese citizenism nation!
The muchly mattering crustiness of your parangongistic wording of the mind here, and the shocking non-offuscationalized relevance of your throating of ideas, was impactionated on me in suchlike vigorousness as to make result in spontaneous expression of New World Odor Chinese citizenism in my pantaloons.
Alas, alas, nine thirds alas, such realizings can be scorching.
And drippy.
But like all the scorched hair while wokking the dog, just have to bear with it.
ha ha. Another moron who equates market health to economic health.
And by "market health," we are speaking of equities floated (for now) at nosebleed levels on the wings of dead presidents, printed thusly & doled out to the chosen BFF of the FRBNY.
Outperformance of what? Fraud? Theft? Confiscation of homes and bank accounts?
That's pretty much all the market's doing (major participants) and that's pretty much all Government & the central banks (not just the Fed) are doing.
That's not recovery. That's INSURRECTION and it will lead to civil war.
Did you not notice all those Occupy Protesters and all those Arab countries seeing governments topple, and growing firebombings at Greek Police and now there's been recent riots in Belfast AND Spain not only had a boycott / strike of a general election but ALSO Catalonia wants to BREAK OFF from Spain - the cash cow of Spain. You call this recovery?
This is civil global wars in the making.
I think most bears or doomers would concede that they didn't realise just the extent to which CBs would go to, just to keep the Ponzi going. In fact, I think most bulls (with the exception of the big banks which, amazingly, keep doing SO well) would also concede that fact.
It doesn't mean they are wrong, just as they weren't wrong in 2006/2007/2008.
That which can't continue, won't.
DavidC
Well for FED toadies who have all the money and connections they need, an incentive to keep those SS COLA's down along with interest rates, and maintain the hegemony and central control (death) of markets for the benefit of Wall Street - of course there isn't any such thing as food and energy inflation.
He may as well have said "there really is no such thing as liberty and self-determination".
...and AAPL regains its 5-handle! Woo-f'n-hoo!
[edit]
I see that happened yesterday. Oh well
Lots of bears calling a top across the trading sites today.
Always good to re-view this classic however:
http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7955331/confessions-of-a-former-bear-part-1
the brown-haired man with the mustsche in this video is where the ZH trader must end up as he cynically concludes how markets function.
Don't worry, soon as everyone is positioned just right for maximum losses, then they'll pull the rug out again.
No real money can be made without periodic "noone could've seen it coming" mass cullings/sheople shearings, dawg, ya dig.
Dow Theory bitchez... [Or, as Homer Simpson might put it... 'D-OH Theory']...
As long as the graph points upwards and rightwards, everything's OhKey!
Chimps displaying Dow theory... http://youtu.be/VRrMu7B1L2I
That was good. Thanks
Do graphs point leftwards in Arabic?
At least in hebrew, they do point leftwards.
Only on an Ak-bar graph...
S&P took out recent highs amid a very large surge in average trade size - something that often marks a climax in trend.
I'll believe it when I see it... till then, you BTFD. (or get your face ripped off!)
SPX about to fall hard. no important resistance level gets taken out on this pitiful volume. the hedge funds are trying to lure you back in. dont take the bait
You and 200 other hedge funds are thinking the exact same thing. Sorry, this market doesn't move on reality anymore. Go check out Slaughter's link above. Thx for the warning tho.
there are other reliable technical indicators i track that are giving off warning signs. look at a monthly chart of SPX going back to 1997 and an oscillator like full stochastics. you will see 3 periods of significant divergence occur over that time period - 1999, 2007, and right now. be careful if you are long spx. gold is looking great though
Even just an asymptotic curve - or re-scaling a linear price chart to exponential (not logarithmic) for DOW, S&P, NASDAQ, and you can see it clear as day.
2012 09 13 spy crash soon - http://flic.kr/p/daxu6H goldpricemodel
Diminishing returns, bitchez.
aapl 2013 jan long-term curves 02 goldpricemodel
linearizing DIA, SPY using base 1.05 http://flic.kr/p/a1db7U
For each price use 1.05 (price) then plot. When linear patterns are established on this scale, a data series produced for each, re-map this series to the real price chart as price(x) = log1.05 data_point(x).
Theyre desperate to get some fresh meat, and its not gonna happen. Trying to ignite another stock frenzy...I mean....LMAO
I bet they can do it sheep. I think retail will come roaring in pretty soon and get a giant deuce dumped on there head.
We are approaching some really interesting levels across most major indexes. By time extension, we are not going to have to wait too long for the next act in this show of horrors to reveal itself.
yup, big time push on Muni's, high-yield credit and credit lines locked to CD's ... don't be fooled!
5 year returns
S&P 500 about 5%
Long Treasuries about 35%
Gold about 155%
Do a 14 year returns summary, if you really want an eye opener.
(Include adjustment for survivorship bias on the equity indexes to really make it interesting.)
and look at the sharpe ratios
what color sharpie works best for that?
And then adjust for inflation (the REAL 70-80% price inflation we have had since 1999, not the laughably lowballed CPI of ~30%), and the results will not only open your eyes, they will make your eyes pop right out of your head.
OT: Silver oz sold by the US Mint sofar: 6,007,000 and counting
http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/?action=sales&year=2013
Already the 3rd best January ever.
100,00 OZ out of second.
515,000 OZ out of first.
in 2007 equities (ES) didn't peak until 9 months after the low in VIX....just sayin'....good thing VIX is still so reliable /s
Nice ramp job on very weak volume. Who needs volume though. We haven't had a conviction of volume in months if not years.
What a sad state of a stock market. Nothing to see here just move along sheep.
NBC's lead headline is on a hoax perpetrated on a football player.
So, when do we go back to IRAN IRAN IRAN, or DEBT CEILING DEBT CEILING DEBT CEILING?
Just wondering
They save those stories for the slow news days.
I hear ya....and personally I don't give a flyin fuck about that lyin ass bicycle dude either.
But how reliable are these indicators?
Yesterday Durden wrote somehing about algos running out of margin,suggesting upmove is over.
This is how good commentary is.Fails to see an uptrend since his orgasmic post on Dec 28 th when he climaxed looking at thec "This is how fiscall cliff looks like" chart of ES selloff into the close.Needless to say,the ES is about 8 percent from then.Charts,Durdens,charts.Uptrend continues.
I see both of you use the same spell checker though, so that's cool.
Coinciding with that Fibonacci Fade.....
so everything beside currencies is going up ?
i believe the word you're looking for is INFLATION
I give up. I can't even put a guess in anymore. No matter what theories get thrown out here (no vol, retail gone, market falls after election, fed buying every asset, no short interest left...) it just goes up.
The only funny thing to me is the ten year. Ben said QEinfinity would lower rates. LIEsman backed him up saying it should be good for 15bps lower and I think it was 1.65% when they did it.
On another note I saw on a bloomberg headline that the NJ pension fund was up 13% last year. That probably seriously helped their broken ass unfunded models....so I am pretty sure I know why QE4eva is really happening.
When rates go up, they will start monetizing the short end.
It goes up because it is underwritten by the CBs ceaseless infusions of digi-bucks. It's not that hard at all...
If you're trading it...well...best to ya.
I thought QE = Japan = 90% drop in the market....so we just go straight up with our qe's....that's pretty cool.
If the Tyler's are right about the CB underwriting the stock market I wonder why more companies aren't issuing stock like crazy? Why not raise some free money while the govs throwing it away?
I've been riding this thing up for a while now. I think tomorrow I will take my profits and sit on the sidelines for a while. You just can't fight the tape as much as I think it's a contrived pump job. I have been taking a little and buying 10-20 oz of silver every week. Think I'll buy a shit load tomorrow and sit back and relax
azzhatter I hope you have made money, you are proof that at least to some extent...retail is still in there.
Im not a big player but I have about 40k in profits Im gonna take tommorow. Silver eagles gettin hard to come by. I only have about 800k in savings with 350 in the market. I am pulling that tomorrow
complacency train - ALL ABOARD!
I LIKE TRAINS
I think the 10 year yield is up because "they" think the economy will improve in '13. Not enough bad data, housing, claims, etc to indicate otherwise. They did a good job of ignoring the Philly Fed today though.
There just is no fear now. Fiscal problems will be pushed into the future as always, and liquidity will continue to flow.
So until we reach the next phase of this farce, whatever that is, prices will continue to drift higher, imo, with only minor pullbacks.
But when that next phase arrives, it will come quickly. It may be a currency panic, a sudden steep rise in oil prices, interest rates or inflation. Whatever it is, something is going to "give" eventually, and send this economy into recession again and crash the stock market, imo.
And at that point increasing the QE significantly is going to be really untenable. I.e, no more Fed bullets.
Hope they can keep it propped up till I call legally pull 401/IRA.
I hope you're closer to 60 than 25...
It is ever more impossible for Ben to pull back the punch pool.
You're funny.
Soon the Jack Daniels is gonna get swapped out for Peote.
A blow-off top?
Fuck this completely corrupt and full fucking retarded "market". And a huge fuck you to CNBC, you fucking shill wall street ass sucks.
Such rancor! I miss not seeing Dick Oy Vey Bove' on CNBC talking about how solid the banks are.
Charts, bitchez!
"S&P took out recent highs amid a very large surge in average trade size - something that often marks a climax in trend"
Did HFTs get that memo?
That surge was Bernanke spewing in LIESman's mouth
Ditto• +1
Dow priced in gold is not so good, but we won't talk about that.
One thing to keep in mind - low volume advances almost always get retraced ... eventually and quite often violently. It's pretty clear that the Fed is endeavoring to manufacture a 1999 like bubble run... or maybe that is their major concern.... unstoppable asset price inflation that requires a pin prick to terminate. How do you ignite animal spirits while at the same time avoiding a mania? One thing is for certain, we'll see...
anyone notice the collapse in short interest for FB?
Ya. I also noticed the pricing on Puts out to 2014 on FB are very much not expensive.
Stops blasted, DXY sold, oil bid, HFTs gamed, long piled on as the Dow closed lower for the session. It is the bulls breakout, but can it hold?
That is the question.
Sure it can hold. It has held through everything everyone on here (me included) has said it cannot hold through. It can hold on as long as it takes and the suckers will come back in. Maybe they are not suckers anymore.
Ben knows ZIRP kills the pensions and insurance companies. Unless he is willing to cut those people loose he will drive this thing as high as he can to keep them afloat.
We will see. I think the current rally has even rattled the bulls. Marketwatch were locking in a 1987 crash mid year (2012). Didn't show, everyone, bullish or otherwise have tried to call tops. The only analysis that makes sense is a HFT supported market, which is forcing longs to still be held, at this point now we should see some profit taking, also the tech sector sinking should hammer the Dow industries. Not happening. But money printing or otherwise, you gotta take some profit at some point.
So, I respect the lone trader somewhere anywhere with patience and balls of titanium, waiting to short this beast ala 2008. Back then it was the housing bubble, now, could be something else, something worst...
May be early to short. If this top heavy DOW cranks up through tommorrow watch the painful short squueeeze commence early next week.
did'nt we hit that peak around oct 2007, set up alert!
So for alll their efforts, Intel made less profit than a year ago. But hey, they beat estimates!
On a year over year basis, corporate profits have risen 6.47%, down from 21.08% a year ago, for the companies tracked by Value Line.
So when they tell me things are improving I ask "How?"
Robert Prechter from October of 2007 on Bloomberg:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjS60TaD_J8&feature=player_detailpage#t=118s
Very interesting and similar charts to today; but of course "this time it's different" for the pumpers.
Things are about the same as they were then, other than $5+ Trillion of FED cotton candy spinning.
That's actually a really good clip. I know Prechter gets slammed a lot. But his analysis back in 2007 is actually quite smart.
fuck ALL the charts, nothing has changed for the better, nothing to see here, or there, just keep movin folks..................
This one way ticket is going to be goood until it isn't. We're going to wake up one morning and wish we had stocked up on ass wipes. I bought again with tight stops and closed my trades at the N.Y. cut. I noticed S_C's comment at the top of the thread and wanted to throw my laptop across the room. Lacker should be drawn and quartered!
Today's volume flashed a warning. The market exceeded its Sep 14 highs. But volume today was lower than volume on Sep 14. Such lower, non confirming, doesn't negate in itself the ongoing primary bull market, but it is a warning sign. Maybe a secondary reaction is coming.
Furthermore, gold make a timid bullish accomplishment today by breaking above the Jan 2 highs.
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/01/dow-theory-update-for-jan-17-...
I get the impression if the market actually went down for 2 or 3 days Obama would summon all the banks to the oval office to get the "plan" straightened out.
Where am I wrong?
Where you got it wrong is that Bernanke summons the banks and Obama summons YOUR WAGES.
Fuck the DOW, it means nothing!!!!!!!
It's rigged,, can we commence with the policy of ignoring it, PLEASE!! It provides no insight to whats going on.......................................................... Oh period
The kill switch
Here's a tidbit for you : XLF vs All of it F..k Yahoo for blocking the #'s.
This shit is beyond laughable!
Dow Jones weekly - http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/dow-jones-weekly-stalled-long-term-resi...
Just keeps going up on Ben and Barry buying with US tax dollars.
and the transports are already there! do you think people would look at me funny if I wore a DJTA 6000 hat? dow theory guys getting their articles ready.
All you need to know is Capital One (COF)down hard After Hours : 57.32 ----4.27 (6.93%) 6:28PM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price
COF took on HSBC's North American credit cards - closed last year. They're probably having some issues with people just bailing on the changeover (which hasn't really happened, but they noted heavier delinquency rate.
Translation: People are busted and aren't paying their credit card bills. COF has plenty of bottom-of-barrel debt slaves.
Going only by anecdotal evidence (OK, some market, technical and economic smarts), the real economy on Main St. USA is getting hammered.
Was in a Wal-Mart today. First time in my life that there were no lines at checkout, and I had my choice of more than one (only about eight open).
This is coming really fast, it's gonna hurt and there's no escape, because it's global.
Glad I read "No Exit" when in was supposed to be studying something else in college.