Dow Jones Closes Just Shy Of 5 Year High As Intel Beats EPS, Misses Revenue And Guides Lukewarm

Tyler Durden's picture

Stocks surged (apart from AAPL) gloriously out of their super-narrow recent range, driven by recycled JPY rumors and some potential 'give' by the Republicans, and the rest of the risk-on complex tracked higher with it. Treasury yields pinged back to higher on the week as the S&P took out recent highs amid a very large surge in average trade size - something that often marks a climax in trend. It seems the selling of vol has hit its short-term limit (as VIX flatlined in general today) and so FX and credit were the levers today. Gold and Silver also surged on the day as Oil popped on the growing tensions in Algeria. In a premature release, Intel exposed an EPS beat, revenue miss, and weak guidance which sent algos scurrying and the share price snapping up and down into the close (and falling after). The bottom-line seems to be that the BoJ joining the infinite print brigade (and some very mixed US macro data) was enough to break us out of a narrow range - but the VWAP reversion into the close appears anything but follow through for the next leg up - as trade size suggests short-term trend change.

The world shifted a little today as VIX compression lost its mojo...

 

JPY weakness and the carry driver correlation were the basis for much of today's equity exuberance

 

S&P 500 futures tradedup to the up channel trendline highs - amid large block (blue)...

 

As average trade size surged...

 

Commodities surged (even as USD remained relatively flat)

 

 

Gold and the S&P 500 are now synced from 1/3/13 close at +1.4%.

 

Intel, afer trading up immediately on the headlines, is now trading down afterhours...

 

Full-Year 2013

  • Revenue: low single-digit percentage increase.
  • Gross margin percentage: 60 percent, plus or minus a few percentage points.
  • R&D plus MG&A spending: $18.9 billion, plus or minus $200 million.
  • Amortization of acquisition-related intangibles: approximately $300 million.
  • Depreciation: $6.8 billion, plus or minus $100 million.
  • Impact of equity investments and interest and other: net gain of approximately $100 million.
  • Tax Rate: approximately 25 percent.
  • Full-year capital spending: $13.0 billion, plus or minus $500 million.

Q1 2013

  • Revenue: $12.7 billion, plus or minus $500 million.
  • Gross margin percentage: 58 percent, plus or minus a couple percentage points.
  • R&D plus MG&A spending: approximately $4.6 billion.
  • Amortization of acquisition-related intangibles: approximately $75 million.
  • Impact of equity investments and interest and other: net loss of approximately $50 million.
  • Depreciation: approximately $1.7 billion.

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

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spastic_colon's picture

fed Lacker said today that there "really is no such thing as food and energy inflation"......I'm not shittin'

TruthInSunshine's picture

Shy of 5 year highs, close to 14 year highs (nominally; negative 62% in real, inflation adjusted terms), blah dee da dohh.

[And that's if one doesn't include the Winners of The New World type stocks, like pets.com, that were Corzined, which the indexes don't even reflect, conveniently, Jeremy Siegel]

 

Buy stocks, bitches!

Dark Meadowlark's picture

Yes, buy stocks. Doomers have been predicting collapse going on for almost 5 years now. Wake up to the fact the FED saved us from another Great Depression!

TruthInSunshine's picture

Yes, I know many people who thrived holding down to near zero (or actual zero) in 2000 and 2008/2009.

Buy stocks!!! Bawk!!! Great secular bull run breaking out! Bawk!! Nikkei4ever! Bawk!!!

akak's picture

 

Doomers have been predicting collapse going on for almost 5 years now

And collapse has in fact been progressing for five years now --- you are just too deep into ignorance, self-denial and official propaganda to recognize it.

Where are stocks (in INFLATION-ADJUSTED TERMS) compared to five years ago, shill?  DOWN.  Where are gold and silver, even in inflation-adjusted terms, compared to five years ago? UP.  Where are the bonds (i.e., debts of profligate and unsustainably-overspending governments) beloved by all you conformist sheep?  In the biggest bubble in financial history.

Have fun eating all that shit that your masters keep telling you is prime beef.  Maybe you will even enjoy it, as you seem to leave dishing it out here.

Dark Meadowlark's picture

Have you seen the stock market latley? How is it that US stocks and other American assests are  preforming better than anything else in the world? It's simple it is called: RECOVERY!

akak's picture

You know, as an MDB-style troll, you are not very convincing.

Yen Cross's picture

 These(CB) assclowns pump $12-13 Trillion globally into the system and call breaking even winning!  Meanwhile we're drinking toilet water at Shitbucks...

ebworthen's picture

Dark Meadowlark said:

" How is it that US stocks and other American assests are  preforming better than anything else in the world?"

How is it?

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Wow, watch those numbers roll.

I'm counting ~ $100,000 added every six seconds.

Recovery...um...yeah.

Yen Cross's picture

 Your ignorance is bliss. Look at the DAX, Nikkei, ASX comp, before you insert foot in mouth<>

akak's picture

I love how this assclown troll has created several sockpuppets in order to give himself multiple up-arrows, as surely virtually no regular ZH member would ever do so.  But is IS official US policy in order to undermine pro-liberty, anti-establishment conversation, after all:

http://leaksource.wordpress.com/2012/05/26/

Yen Cross's picture

 Hoop shooters come in [gangs of five]. ;-)

fuu's picture

25 days, 10 posts, the first praising MDB as being right.

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

akak said:

I love how this assclown troll has created several sockpuppets in order to give himself multiple up-arrows, as surely virtually no regular ZH member would ever do so.  But is IS official US policy in order to undermine pro-liberty, anti-establishment conversation, after all:

http://leaksource.wordpress.com/2012/05/26/

Hmmmmm .........* you know, the stranger-than-fiction recent events, incidents, and crises, superficially distinct and unrelated yet somehow connected, appear to be congealing and taking shape, like the edge pieces of a jigsaw puzzle.

*non-standard ellipsis usage for dramatic effect

AnAnonymous raves and drools about US citizenism 'americanism', "the system that has been implemented first time in the America, on 1776, July, 4th," blobbing up and hijacking humanity. It's possible that his genuine insanitation is being employed as part of crafty Chinese citizenism offuscational diversionary scheming.

Your remark above about the Department of Homeland Sockpuppetry made me realize something shocking: the US is being transformed into yet another Chinese citizenism nation!

akak's picture

 

Your remark above about the Department of Homeland Sockpuppetry made me realize something shocking: the US is being transformed into yet another Chinese citizenism nation!

The muchly mattering crustiness of your parangongistic wording of the mind here, and the shocking non-offuscationalized relevance of your throating of ideas, was impactionated on me in suchlike vigorousness as to make result in spontaneous expression of New World Odor Chinese citizenism in my pantaloons.

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Alas, alas, nine thirds alas, such realizings can be scorching.

akak's picture

And drippy.

But like all the scorched hair while wokking the dog, just have to bear with it.

centerline's picture

ha ha.  Another moron who equates market health to economic health.

TruthInSunshine's picture

And by "market health," we are speaking of equities floated (for now) at nosebleed levels on the wings of dead presidents, printed thusly & doled out to the chosen BFF of the FRBNY.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Outperformance of what? Fraud? Theft? Confiscation of homes and bank accounts?

That's pretty much all the market's doing (major participants) and that's pretty much all Government & the central banks (not just the Fed) are doing.

That's not recovery. That's INSURRECTION and it will lead to civil war.

Did you not notice all those Occupy Protesters and all those Arab countries seeing governments topple, and growing firebombings at Greek Police and now there's been recent riots in Belfast AND Spain not only had a boycott / strike of a general election but ALSO Catalonia wants to BREAK OFF from Spain - the cash cow of Spain. You call this recovery?

This is civil global wars in the making.

DavidC's picture

I think most bears or doomers would concede that they didn't realise just the extent to which CBs would go to, just to keep the Ponzi going. In fact, I think most bulls (with the exception of the big banks which, amazingly, keep doing SO well) would also concede that fact.

It doesn't mean they are wrong, just as they weren't wrong in 2006/2007/2008.

That which can't continue, won't.

DavidC

ebworthen's picture

Well for FED toadies who have all the money and connections they need, an incentive to keep those SS COLA's down along with interest rates, and maintain the hegemony and central control (death) of markets for the benefit of Wall Street - of course there isn't any such thing as food and energy inflation.

He may as well have said "there really is no such thing as liberty and self-determination".

Urban Roman's picture

...and AAPL regains its 5-handle! Woo-f'n-hoo!

[edit] 
I see that happened yesterday. Oh well 

slaughterer's picture

Lots of bears calling a top across the trading sites today. 

Always good to re-view this classic however:

http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7955331/confessions-of-a-former-bear-part-1

the brown-haired man with the mustsche in this video is where the ZH trader must end up as he cynically concludes how markets function.  

 

 

SheepDog-One's picture

Don't worry, soon as everyone is positioned just right for maximum losses, then they'll pull the rug out again.

TruthInSunshine's picture

No real money can be made without periodic "noone could've seen it coming" mass cullings/sheople shearings, dawg, ya dig.

francis_sawyer's picture

Dow Theory bitchez... [Or, as Homer Simpson might put it... 'D-OH Theory']...

Shell Game's picture

As long as the graph points upwards and rightwards, everything's OhKey!

 

Chimps displaying Dow theory...   http://youtu.be/VRrMu7B1L2I

 

imapopulistnow's picture

Do graphs point leftwards in Arabic?

Haager's picture

At least in hebrew, they do point leftwards. 

AccreditedEYE's picture

S&P took out recent highs amid a very large surge in average trade size - something that often marks a climax in trend.

I'll believe it when I see it... till then, you BTFD. (or get your face ripped off!)

Comay Mierda's picture

SPX about to fall hard.  no important resistance level gets taken out on this pitiful volume.  the hedge funds are trying to lure you back in. dont take the bait

AccreditedEYE's picture

You and 200 other hedge funds are thinking the exact same thing. Sorry, this market doesn't move on reality anymore. Go check out Slaughter's link above. Thx for the warning tho.

Comay Mierda's picture

there are other reliable technical indicators i track that are giving off warning signs.  look at a monthly chart of SPX going back to 1997 and an oscillator like full stochastics.  you will see 3 periods of significant divergence occur over that time period - 1999, 2007, and right now.  be careful if you are long spx.  gold is looking great though

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Even just an asymptotic curve - or re-scaling a linear price chart to exponential (not logarithmic) for DOW, S&P, NASDAQ, and you can see it clear as day.

2012 09 13 spy crash soon - http://flic.kr/p/daxu6H goldpricemodel

Diminishing returns, bitchez.

aapl 2013 jan long-term curves 02 goldpricemodel

linearizing DIA, SPY using base 1.05 http://flic.kr/p/a1db7U

For each price use 1.05 (price) then plot. When linear patterns are established on this scale, a data series produced for each, re-map this series to the real price chart as price(x) = log1.05 data_point(x).

SheepDog-One's picture

Theyre desperate to get some fresh meat, and its not gonna happen. Trying to ignite another stock frenzy...I mean....LMAO

fonzannoon's picture

I bet they can do it sheep. I think retail will come roaring in pretty soon and get a giant deuce dumped on there head.

centerline's picture

We are approaching some really interesting levels across most major indexes.  By time extension, we are not going to have to wait too long for the next act in this show of horrors to reveal itself.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

yup, big time push on Muni's, high-yield credit and credit lines locked to CD's ... don't be fooled!

knukles's picture

5 year returns

 

S&P 500            about 5%
Long Treasuries  about 35%
Gold                 about 155%

TruthInSunshine's picture

Do a 14 year returns summary, if you really want an eye opener.

(Include adjustment for survivorship bias on the equity indexes to really make it interesting.)

centerline's picture

what color sharpie works best for that?

akak's picture

 

Do a 14 year returns summary, if you really want an eye opener.

And then adjust for inflation (the REAL 70-80% price inflation we have had since 1999, not the laughably lowballed CPI of ~30%), and the results will not only open your eyes, they will make your eyes pop right out of your head.

fuu's picture

Already the 3rd best January ever.

100,00 OZ out of second.

515,000 OZ out of first.