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Apple iPad Supply Chain "Nearly Halted"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It seems that when it comes to looking at fundamentals, chartists such as DeMark and the other bottom-calling knife-catching 'value-players' who claim to have read the Apple tea-leaves are good at looking at, well, charts, and rather horrible at divining the underlying cash flow supporting a stock. Or lack thereof as is rapidly becoming the case of Apple. As Reuters notes, it appears Sharp (the manufacturer of iPad screens) has nearly halted production of the 9.7-inch screens - as demand shifts to the iPad mini. This semi-confirmation of Citi's supply chain checks from last month suggests that concerns over growth in iPad may well have been justified and the expectedly lower margin iPad mini will benefit - as Macquarie Research has estimated that iPad shipments will tumble nearly 40 percent in the current quarter to about 8 million from about 13 million in the fourth quarter, although Apple's total tablet shipments will show a much smaller decrease due to strong iPad mini sales. It is quite apparent, as the WSJ notes, that the shift in the coolness factor has taken place as Samsung's new smartphone is gathering more 'hype' as iPhone is now "the underdog" in innovation.

AAPL is trading at $497 in the pre-market

 

Via Reuters:

Sharp's iPad screen production line at its Kameyama plant in central Japan has fallen to the minimal level to keep the line running this month after a gradual slowdown began at the end of 2012 as Apple manages its inventory, the industry sources with knowledge of Sharp's production plans told Reuters.

 

...

 

The sources didn't say how much of the slowdown was due to seasonal changes in demand or consumers opting for the smaller iPad mini and were unable to characterize Apple's overall tablet sales.

 

Macquarie Research has estimated that iPad shipments will tumble nearly 40 percent in the current quarter to about 8 million from about 13 million in the fourth quarter, although Apple's total tablet shipments will show a much smaller decrease due to strong iPad mini sales.

 

...

 

Any indication that iPad sales are struggling could add to concern that the appeal of Apple products is waning after earlier media reports said it is slashing orders for iPhone 5 screens and other components from its Asian suppliers.

 

...

 

Apple, the reports said, has asked state-managed Japan Display, Sharp and LG Display to halve supplies of iPhone panels from an initial plan for about 65 million screens in January-March.

 

...

 

BNP Paribas expects the iPad mini will eat into sales of the full-sized iPad, with the mini rise to 60 percent of total iPad shipments in the January-March quarter.

 

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Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:24 | 3165897 CPL
CPL's picture

Oh noes!!  We Needz moar IpAds!!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89uLV6DUUGc&list=UUTiL1q9YbrVam5nP2xzFTWQ&index=3

 

On a side note.  Lots of cool astro stuff happening tonight.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:30 | 3165931 maxmad
maxmad's picture

BYOS!!!   If you want the new IPAD you are going to have to bring them your own sliver!!!!!!

 

Hi Ho Sliver!!!!

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:36 | 3165960 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The next marketing scheme will be an iPad that comes with a silver clad coin....strict limit of 5 per customer....but you can bring a friend and get more.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:19 | 3166381 Top_Kill
Top_Kill's picture

I'm calling bull shit on the Silver Doctor story. I'm a stacker, not a hater. But that story has 2 facts, 50 guesses, and 100 confirmation biases. Frankly, I'm surprised they even ran it. Stories like that will quickly erode credibility.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:41 | 3166468 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

Let's wait and see.  The silver story seems speculative for sure, but the subject has been broached on the net and curious minds will find out.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 13:07 | 3166563 urwright
urwright's picture

it is all a game

how you you play?

Like this:  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f5S7e5G5-Q

Or this:  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AEr8LdueLo

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:31 | 3165937 CPL
CPL's picture

Silver is the primary ingredient of good sauder for those wondering how silver works into electronics...well any electrical product that requires to be joined together.  Also the principal component on every keyboard and mouse and remote control that every human owns on the planet

 

It's what makes the button 'click'.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:23 | 3166141 css1971
css1971's picture

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/sauder?s=t

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/solder?s=ts

 

I thought it was mostly tin these days, lead being too dangerous.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:26 | 3166409 Begbie
Begbie's picture

I'm calling bullshit on you CPL.  Silver is not in solder, you numbnuts.  If you don't know what you're talking about, stfu.  Have you ever soldered anything dipshit?  Didn't think so.  Pull your head out of your ass.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:40 | 3166462 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

Then what did I make my still with? Uh-Oh! SpaghettiOs

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 13:15 | 3166588 urwright
urwright's picture

Call bullshit on Wiki?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solder

Do you have any warmth in your nuts?

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 13:50 | 3166696 Begbie
Begbie's picture

Fine, I stand corrected.  The solder I've used didn't have silver.  Therefore, I assumed that in all cases, solder didn't contain silver.  But, as you can see from wikipedia, in some cases it is used in solder, and it's only 2% of the weight.  So, how much silver is actually used worldwide in a given year?  I wish I knew the answer to that.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 15:46 | 3167208 CPL
CPL's picture

Shitty sauder when you are making a prototype is made with tin so you can make 'quick edits'.   Good sauder has silver in it and is used in the refined mechancial processes to manufacture ALL modern electronics with a minimum of 20% silver in the mix.

http://store.curiousinventor.com/guides/how_to_solder/kind_of_solder/

Here this breaks it down in layman's terms as to what type of sauder is appropriate for what type of project.

 

Didn't down vote you, it's an honest question because you didn't know.  

Now that you know you can buy spools of unreportable silver holdings that is pre measured, stamped, and can't be anything BUT silver because it would break the equipment it's being built with so the idea of counterfiet saudering wire is nearly and totally out of the imagination of anyone that handles money.

What's that spell?

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:12 | 3167248 akak
akak's picture

 

What's that spell?

I'm guessing S-O-L-D-E-R?

(And as the word is pronounced "SAH-der" and not "SAW-der",  I don't understand your confused "sauder" spelling in any case.)

Carry on.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:25 | 3165904 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Need to put a bid under some bonds today.  No worries.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:25 | 3165905 Jason T
Jason T's picture

telling you right now, it was June 1999 when Intel cut a huge order from us at Photocircuits ..we were buliding them circuit boards.. cause they way over estimted their demand.  those orders never came back .. soon after came the peak in the stock market and a recession .. and a peak in work too for US economy on a per capita basis.

 

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:28 | 3165923 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

so this well end well-like when the price skyrocketed in '79 and then we get another "Silver Thursday" like in '80?

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:38 | 3165956 CPL
CPL's picture

The average person inthe 80's didn't have over 18 devices in their home with a 20-40% silver content in everything from their microwave, iPad, fridge, stove...anything digital.

 

Digital watches were still a 'neat' and expensive idea.  My parents stereo then was copper.  Silver in electronics introduced the idea of HiFi, the amazing technology where the sound is passable (yet laughable by today's standards).

 

We use silver in everything now

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:37 | 3165967 CPL
CPL's picture

lol!  Remember ordering computers in the 80's?  I would swear you cut and paste that from the Timex Sinclair ad

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:40 | 3165973 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

On a long enough timeline...

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:27 | 3165910 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I can't wait until McDonalds throws in an iPad when you super duper size your McRib meal. Bet you can't eat just one.

<75 fat grams and 1,500 calories here I come.>

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:07 | 3166082 Peachfuzz
Peachfuzz's picture

I can see it now, they'll put the mini's in the old apple crisp boxes and get sued for serving ipad with filling that was too hot.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:26 | 3165912 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

suck on your AAPL investment-Bank of Israel

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:45 | 3165999 retiringteach
retiringteach's picture

fuck you, german scum

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:52 | 3166027 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

another enlightened NYC union teacher I see

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:26 | 3165913 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Oh oh!

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:28 | 3165917 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Wait'll they bring out the new iEBT app and start handing out new Apple O'phones and O'pads...

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:28 | 3165921 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

How in the fuck is Dudley going to feed the poor?!

 

Fuck you Fed.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:28 | 3165922 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Why waste time arguing about 10 inch and 7 inch form factors?  Apple can skip all this nonsense and just create the i-1984 and sell it to the DOD/HSA for free implantation into willing Americans.  There would be lines of people at the Wal-Mart waiting to be implanted with this mind-control device.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:49 | 3166011 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@duo

Don't watch Futurama, so I'd never seen that, but it does look like the future, unfortunately.  Actually, Google Glass is already here and offering "enhanced reality."

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:30 | 3165932 daccord
daccord's picture

apples and peanut butter 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:34 | 3165945 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Brother, can you spare an i

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:07 | 3165952 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Right now there is a broker out there some place talking to the poor sucker who bought at $705.07 convincing him to average down.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:50 | 3166285 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Do you have my office bugged?  :>)

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:36 | 3165962 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The iEconomy supporting bubbles sure aren't lasting long these days.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:37 | 3165966 SoundMoney45
SoundMoney45's picture

Market share, margins and market segmentation are what matter here. Is Apple is holding share? Is Apple holding Margins?  And what market segementation is being used for the first two questions?  Also, how do Apple's margins compare to competitors?  The above article seems to struggle with these fundamentals.  

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:39 | 3165974 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Was at a lacrosse game last weekend, one of the kids had a new iPhone 5 he was showing off....none of the others even cared.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 13:52 | 3166702 Matt
Matt's picture

AAPL is just the beginning. If Samsung diversifies into making chips for other people, they will eat TSMC's lunch. TSMC is at 28 nm. Samsung is already testing chips on 14 nm. That means potentially 4 times as many chips per wafer. Lower cost, higher margin, less energy. Not only that, but it looks like they have caught up to, if not surpassed, Intel. I guess this is sort of what the Gilded Age was like.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:40 | 3165970 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

The Ipad mini is an overhyped piece of cr..p. Like most Apple products. I actually bought one for mobile features but returned it the following day.. screen was horrible on the eyes.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 14:59 | 3169181 e-recep
e-recep's picture

you are over 40 and have no reading glasses, right?

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:40 | 3165976 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

Most user reviews on youtube have the Google Nexus 7 tablet rated better than than iPad mini.  Competition is good.  Apple's margins will continue to shrink.  Either their product specs have to get better or their prices have to come down.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:52 | 3166030 rtalcott
rtalcott's picture

My Nexus 7 works very well...it's an impressive and inexpensive piece of hardware...for many things the nexus 10 could replace my laptop.

rt

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:11 | 3166095 css1971
css1971's picture

http://www.asus.com/Tablet_Mobile/ASUS_Transformer_Pad_Infinity_TF700T/

 

All a tablet is, is a laptop which someone pulled the keyboard off.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:41 | 3165984 madcows
madcows's picture

Looks like we are all going to go hungry then.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:43 | 3165987 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Nobody will notice except the middle men.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:43 | 3165989 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

How much of this crap can be sustained when the markets are saturated with gadgets?  And now they have put many nations on a level playing field with the likes of China wages and have robots taking jobs.  Who's going to buy this shit?  When you have 20 fast food chains in a 2 block area all with 99 cent menus I think it's safe to say that growth has reached the end.  Future ramifications are of no concern,  it's all about making a buck now and dieing with the most.  To hell with future generations that's their problem.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:45 | 3165995 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

For what its worth, I am a mentor for a group of high school students in a group that exposes them to financial concepts. In speaking to one of the students the other night, she called the iphone 5 "trash".

I'm fairly certain she meant to say something along the lines of "the iphone no longer holds the same cachet as it once did, given its recent stumbles, and lack of recent innovation". I certainly saw no urgency from her to jump on the iphone bus.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:48 | 3166012 The Aviator
The Aviator's picture

AAPL contractor says only difference in the new imac is the amount of silver in the screens, and production delay is due to china silver shortage.  http://www.silverdoctors.com/is-ted-butlers-silver-panic-imminent-apple-...

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:49 | 3166017 realtick
Fri, 01/18/2013 - 10:50 | 3166018 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

Has anybody heard from the $1,111 iAnalyst? How's he doing?

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 11:34 | 3175465 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

I suspect on a sale of 1-11, he's @ 1.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:37 | 3166227 balz
balz's picture

I have a 15$ used wired phone and am more than happy with it.

Sorry for not been a techno-slave.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:00 | 3166312 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

I am still three generations behind with the iPhone and wholly unethused by the later offerings - Samsung SII looks okay but the S3 is simply too big. I do however have a strong interest in the new Blackberry with BB10 and think it might be innovative and a good telephone which noone can accuse iPhone of being.......

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:41 | 3166465 Mentalic
Mentalic's picture

Where in the world is Reggie Middleton???

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 13:19 | 3166602 chrispycrunch
chrispycrunch's picture

Even @ModernSeinfeld is joking about Apple's iPad:

"A homeless man refuses Elaine's offer of a used first-gen iPad. 

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